Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Victorian]

7 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

I find it mental why they don't just put this message out everywhere.Leaflets through doors etc etc.

 

Make things clear as daylight.Cause despite all the messages some folk just don't seem to get it.

 

It's been a huge failure by governments.  They should be doing some public health message type broadcasts with people outside of politicians and the well known advisors.  Maybe other SAGE members,  previous CMOs and CSAs,  senior doctors,  epidemiologists,  ICU consultants.  Get people in to explain the scientific and medical knowledge to people.  Take them through step by step.  Tone of message to be more towards a plea for understanding,  faith and help.

 

There is a huge wealth of medical and scientific expertise to call on.  All these people deserve a chance to be ignored,  ridiculed and abused.   

Edited October 29, 2020 by Victorian

[graygo]

24 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

That's how politics work. If you're not happy with how the current lot are running the country, vote them out.

I'm in Edinburgh West and vote Lib Dem. I wouldn't say I was a die hard member of their party, but Alex Cole Hamilton is doing a good job.

 

 

You know that it's not that simple, it was suggested that we should vote out the SNP because of the way they have handled Covid, why, if we are happy about how they have handled everything else? Should we vote Lib Dem to run the country because Alex Cole Hamilton is doing well in Edinburgh West?

[Francis Albert]

Puzzled about the death numbers. The Guardian after months of ignoring deaths and focusing on infections headlined yesterday the number of deaths in total exceeding 60,000. The Telegraph reported just over 45,000 in line with the daily invreases consistently  reported by it each day.

 

Now in fact the Guardian reported 60,000 cumulative deaths some months ago based the "excess deaths" calculation it then favoured but dropped when excess deaths went negative (because people who would have died in say July or August had already died in April to June and it was becoming obvious that thousand were dying not of Covid but of the neglect of many other illnesses and treatments.

 

Even now deaths over the period of the pandemic are I believe  no higher  than the rolling 5 year average of deaths over the relevant months. No wonder excess deaths fell.out of favour after initially being the gold standard of epidemic death estimation.

 

The confused and hyperbolic reporting of the epidemic has been disgraceful and probably done more damage than Covid 19.

[AlphonseCapone]

The SNP won't get hammered next year ffs, they are consistently polling a majority and independence support is at a record high. They've dominated in Scotland for a decade. 

 

If being delusional was a covid symptom this thread would need quarantined.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

3 hours ago, Darren said:

 

Borders and D&G seem to be punished purely for their proximity to the north of England and Edinburgh/Glasgow, Inverclyde has been shafted, too. Edinburgh should be in Level 2. Seems to be no rhyme nor reason to Shetland being anything but Level 0.

 

Punished for sharing a border with those disease ridden gits from South Lanarkshire, that's what's all about.

[coconut doug]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

It's been a huge failure by governments.  They should be doing some public health message type broadcasts with people outside of politicians and the well known advisors.  Maybe other SAGE members,  previous CMOs and CSAs,  senior doctors,  epidemiologists,  ICU consultants.  Get people in to explain the scientific and medical knowledge to people.  Take them through step by step.  Tone of message to be more towards a plea for understanding,  faith and help.

 

There is a huge wealth of medical and scientific to call on.  All these people deserve a chance to be ignored,  ridiculed and abused.   

 

Not often so much is said or implied in so few words.

[graygo]

1 minute ago, weehammy said:

The SNP could advocate killing the firstborn child in every family and the independence zealots would still vote for them.

That’s what happens when ideology trumps performance.

 

Absolute nonsense. 

[steve123]

1 minute ago, AlphonseCapone said:

The SNP won't get hammered next year ffs, they are consistently polling a majority and independence support is at a record high. They've dominated in Scotland for a decade. 

 

If being delusional was a covid symptom this thread would need quarantined.

Correct, not to say I think they have been very good but there is nobody else credible to vote for

[Victorian]

8 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

Not often so much is said or implied in so few words.

 

That bit aside,  I think it might strike a better message.  To get people in to plead for understanding.  People who are less easily dismissed as having a conflict of interests or questionable credentials.   

 

No listening to that guy 'cos he's got shares in big pharma.  No listening to her 'cos she's Joseph Stalin in a skirt.  No listening to that guy 'cos he's only a dentist.

 

Get people in who are harder to find a spurious reason to discredit.

[Nucky Thompson]

4 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

The SNP won't get hammered next year ffs, they are consistently polling a majority and independence support is at a record high. They've dominated in Scotland for a decade. 

 

If being delusional was a covid symptom this thread would need quarantined.

That's true and it's worrying that they can feck up left, right and centre and still be untouchable because people say there is no alternative.

 

Edinburgh West, Hearts homeland know the score though 

[Enzo Chiefo]

16 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Puzzled about the death numbers. The Guardian after months of ignoring deaths and focusing on infections headlined yesterday the number of deaths in total exceeding 60,000. The Telegraph reported just over 45,000 in line with the daily invreases consistently  reported by it each day.

 

Now in fact the Guardian reported 60,000 cumulative deaths some months ago based the "excess deaths" calculation it then favoured but dropped when excess deaths went negative (because people who would have died in say July or August had already died in April to June and it was becoming obvious that thousand were dying not of Covid but of the neglect of many other illnesses and treatments.

 

Even now deaths over the period of the pandemic are I believe  no higher  than the rolling 5 year average of deaths over the relevant months. No wonder excess deaths fell.out of favour after initially being the gold standard of epidemic death estimation.

 

The confused and hyperbolic reporting of the epidemic has been disgraceful and probably done more damage than Covid 19.

Yes, I think they were, last week or the week before, 1.5 % higher than the 5 year average. Media outlets,  the govt and scientists will twist whichever stat best suits their agenda and flog it to death. Again, why have they adopted this "saving lives" justification when people die in their hundreds of thousands each year in the UK from various equally dangerous diseases and it goes without mention. 

[Don Dan]

42 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Have a quit read of this, really well presented and gives us nice information about how people can catch the virus

 

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?fbclid=IwAR0N1TXZfWTArJsl6Y1oIGQbiNbZrbpGm7fOkUOlDOaka2J69m25IKsFLlQ

Thanks for posting that study. It goes along way in explaining the reasoning behind some of the decisions made in closing some of the establishments and restricting household gatherings over the past few months.

[Francis Albert]

3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

There is currently about 66,000 excess deaths this year, 45,365 with a +ve test within 28 days, 58,925 suspected deaths or confirmed deaths form covid.

 

So there has still been a lot of excess deaths this year

Puzzled as to why the Guardian chose yesterday to headline the "more than 60000 Covid deaths" when that threshold was breached quite some time ago on one measure and hasn't yet been breached on two others.

None of the measures actually measure deaths from Covid of course.

[pablo]

If any Edinburgh people are still in doubt how the City would be treated in an independent Scotland, they can have no doubt now.

 

Soapdodging filth.

[The Real Maroonblood]

5 minutes ago, pablo said:

If any Edinburgh people are still in doubt how the City would be treated in an independent Scotland, they can have no doubt now.

 

Soapdodging filth.

They’ll make Glasgow the capital.

[Footballfirst]

17 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Even now deaths over the period of the pandemic are I believe  no higher  than the rolling 5 year average of deaths over the relevant months. No wonder excess deaths fell.out of favour after initially being the gold standard of epidemic death estimation.

 

The confused and hyperbolic reporting of the epidemic has been disgraceful and probably done more damage than Covid 19.

Your belief is wrong.

 

Scotland figures from NRS for 2020 (up to week 43 - 25 October)

Total deaths - 38,404

5 Year average - 33,196

Variance - 5,208 higher

Covid mentioned on Death Cert - 4,483

 

England and Wales  figures from ONS for 2020 (up to week 42 - 16 October)

Total deaths - 356,165

5 Year average - 294,783

Variance - 61,382 higher

Covid mentioned on Death Cert - 53,695

 

You may recall around 5,500 deaths being removed from the headline daily figure in early August because the last positive test was more than 28 previously.

 

[GinRummy]

6 minutes ago, pablo said:

If any Edinburgh people are still in doubt how the City would be treated in an independent Scotland, they can have no doubt now.

 

Soapdodging filth.

😂 holy shit. What a post. 

[GinRummy]

Just now, The Real Maroonblood said:

They’ll make Glasgow the capital.

It smiles better. 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

I think that ship has sailed for many.

 

A significant and diverse chunk of the population distrust anything coming from the government or the experts. Years of corruption, lies and lowest common denominator media has put paid to that.

 

That's why a different and careful tone of message is needed.  Carefully crafted public broadcasts from those with real and independent expertise.  You're probably right that it wont get through tk the worst elements but it might strike a note with some people.   The polar extremes philosophy of support & oppose should be challenged and shaken up a bit.  

[coconut doug]

6 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, I think they were, last week or the week before, 1.5 % higher than the 5 year average. Media outlets,  the govt and scientists will twist whichever stat best suits their agenda and flog it to death. Again, why have they adopted this "saving lives" justification when people die in their hundreds of thousands each year in the UK from various equally dangerous diseases and it goes without mention. 

 

Twisting stats eh! Who would try and pull a stroke like that?

[The Real Maroonblood]

7 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

It smiles better. 

I’m glad it wasn’t smells better.

[Enzo Chiefo]

10 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Your belief is wrong.

 

Scotland figures from NRS for 2020 (up to week 43 - 25 October)

Total deaths - 38,404

5 Year average - 33,196

Variance - 5,208 higher

Covid mentioned on Death Cert - 4,483

 

England and Wales  figures from ONS for 2020 (up to week 42 - 16 October)

Total deaths - 356,165

5 Year average - 294,783

Variance - 61,382 higher

Covid mentioned on Death Cert - 53,695

 

You may recall around 5,500 deaths being removed from the headline daily figure in early August because the last positive test was more than 28 previously.

 

You mean you agreed with counting deaths that had absolutely nothing to do with Covid, as a Covid death?? Nobody ever recovered back then and the deaths were artificially increased. Even now, using 28 days, many deaths will be from other causes.  The true comparison is the end of year figure and it may well be around about the normal rates expected. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Enzo Chiefo

[Victorian]

6 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

 

 

I'm not into a zeitgeist of no blame,  no shame,  etc.  Not into pussyfooting around.  The worst elements are who they are.  The worst and most prolific type of rules renegades are setting everyone else back.  They are partly responsible for the strict conditions we have.  

[Footballfirst]

11 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

You mean you agreed with counting deaths that had absolutely nothing to do with Covid, as a Covid death?? Nobody ever recovered back then and the deaths were artificially increased. Even now, using 28 days, many deaths will be from other causes.  The true comparison is the end of year figure and it may well be around about the normal rates expected. 

 

The point that FA made was that deaths to date were comparable with the five year average.  That is plainly wrong, regardless of the actual or assigned cause(s).

 

If you look at the cumulative figures for Scotland,  England and Wales before  Covid added to the death count, the actual number of deaths up to week 11 were running at 5,444 below the 5 year average.  (most likely due to a less serious flu season). Covid wiped out that 5,444 deficit and it became a excess figure of 66,590, so it is arguably a turnaround of over 70,000 deaths.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Footballfirst

[Ray Gin]

42 minutes ago, weehammy said:

The SNP could advocate killing the firstborn child in every family and the independence zealots would still vote for them.

 

 

Would they aye

[husref musemic]

5 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

There's only going to be 6 of us now as 2 have dropped out due to a bad cough.

😂

[husref musemic]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

Point is that its time to give someone else a go.  These levels of mistakes can't be justified in keeping them in power.

 

Edit: Tories will get the boot for similar at the next GE.

The difference here is that the drones will vote for them whatever.

freeeedom n aw that.

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 hour ago, weehammy said:

‘None of the above’ should be an option in all elections.

 

But what would it achieve?  

[The Real Maroonblood]

9 minutes ago, husref musemic said:

The difference here is that the drones will vote for them whatever.

freeeedom n aw that.

[redjambo]

56 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

It smiles better. 

 

Glasgow. Where not only the smiles are infectious.

Edited October 29, 2020 by redjambo

[Samuel Camazzola]

@Irufushi a we jaunt to your land could be on the cards to sample the golfing tracks and hospitality. 👌🏼

[redjambo]

34 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

The point that FA made was that deaths to date were comparable with the five year average.  That is plainly wrong, regardless of the actual or assigned cause(s).

 

If you look at the cumulative figures for Scotland,  England and Wales before  Covid added to the death count, the actual number of deaths up to week 11 were running at 5,444 below the 5 year average.  (most likely due to a less serious flu season). Covid wiped out that 5,444 deficit and it became a excess figure of 66,590, so it is arguably a turnaround of over 70,000 deaths.

 

I haven't been following this debate closely, but a picture paints a thousand words (source https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/deaths)

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by redjambo

[Irufushi]

1 minute ago, Samuel Camazzola said:

@Irufushi a we jaunt to your land could be on the cards to sample the golfing tracks and hospitality. 👌🏼

Welcome up anytime I’ll show you around the best tracks 😃

Edited October 29, 2020 by Irufushi

[Enzo Chiefo]

51 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

The point that FA made was that deaths to date were comparable with the five year average.  That is plainly wrong, regardless of the actual or assigned cause(s).

 

If you look at the cumulative figures for Scotland,  England and Wales before  Covid added to the death count, the actual number of deaths up to week 11 were running at 5,444 below the 5 year average.  (most likely due to a less serious flu season). Covid wiped out that 5,444 deficit and it became a excess figure of 66,590, so it is arguably a turnaround of over 70,000 deaths.

Yes, that's a fair point but it doesn't take account of those who, instead of dying with Covid, would likely have died of another cause this year. 115k die of respiratory illness each year in the UK. 600k die in total and there may well be a significant overlap with Covid deaths. I don't think the final excess figure will be as large as some think.

[The Internet]

24 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I haven't been following this debate closely, but a picture paints a thousand words (source https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/deaths)

 

 

Coincidence imo. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, coconut doug said:

 

Twisting stats eh! Who would try and pull a stroke like that?

😂. I can't think of who you mean CD...😎

[manaliveits105]

Just seen bbc news with Nicky sitting at desk with saltire giving a Queens Speech type thing  looks like the krankies are realising her popularity is well on the wane and are getting desperate 

 

all hail the queen 

 

ye canny hurle a Murrell 

[Footballfirst]

3 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, that's a fair point but it doesn't take account of those who, instead of dying with Covid, would likely have died of another cause this year. 115k die of respiratory illness each year in the UK. 600k die in total and there may well be a significant overlap with Covid deaths. I don't think the final excess figure will be as large as some think.

 

England and Wales has been reporting deaths in excess of the 5 year average for each of the last 7 weeks.  I don't seen that changing anytime soon with the number of new cases being reported just now, given the previous indications of a 2-4 week lag between new cases and deaths

[steve123]

5 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Just seen bbc news with Nicky sitting at desk with saltire giving a Queens Speech type thing  looks like the krankies are realising her popularity is well on the wane and are getting desperate 

 

all hail the queen 

 

ye canny hurle a Murrell 

You have to be kidding !!

[Samuel Camazzola]

33 minutes ago, Irufushi said:

Welcome up anytime I’ll show you around the best tracks 😃

👍 Sgt Funsponge will be along in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...😄 

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, steve123 said:

You have to be kidding !!

Nope!

[steve123]

2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Nope!

She is at it honesty goodness !!

[husref musemic]

13 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Just seen bbc news with Nicky sitting at desk with saltire giving a Queens Speech type thing  looks like the krankies are realising her popularity is well on the wane and are getting desperate 

 

all hail the queen 

 

ye canny hurle a Murrell 

 

not content with being on the news all day, we have a night time Rev IM Jolly broadcast.

we know your sad etc, feel our pain etc. you tell us every f'n day !

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by husref musemic

[Footballfirst]

21 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, that's a fair point but it doesn't take account of those who, instead of dying with Covid, would likely have died of another cause this year. 115k die of respiratory illness each year in the UK. 600k die in total and there may well be a significant overlap with Covid deaths. I don't think the final excess figure will be as large as some think.

 

I've seen the 115K respiratory deaths each year quoted previously.  That is simply because a number of causes of deaths are related to breathing conditions. It is very unusual for someone's death to be recorded as "old age".  You might get things like cardio vascular degeneration, but many people deaths are recorded as being due to the last illness or condition they had before their death, e.g. pneumonia, influenza, bronchitis, emphysema, asthma, cystic fibrosis or other COPDs, hence the high figure for respiratory deaths.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Footballfirst

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

I've seen the 115K respiratory deaths each year quoted previously.  That is simply because a number of causes of deaths are related to breathing conditions. It is very unusual for someone's death to be recorded as "old age".  You might get things like cardio vascular degeneration, but many people deaths are recorded as being due to the last illness or condition they had before their death, e.g. pneumonia, influenza, bronchitis, emphysema, asthma or other COPDs, hence the high figure for respiratory deaths.

Yes, I agree. But for a lot of those deaths, Covid will have replaced any one of those causes and, again, "old age" will be the actual cause.

[Footballfirst]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, I agree. But for a lot of those deaths, Covid will have replaced any one of those causes and, again, "old age" will be the actual cause.

 

I agree, as Covid is another respiratory disease, so if one of the above doesn't kill you then Covid might. However it is the excess deaths that tell the real story.  I would expect that the excess deaths for 2020 will be in the range of 10%-15% over the year.

[Taffin]

5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

I agree, as Covid is another respiratory disease, so if one of the above doesn't kill you then Covid might. However it is the excess deaths that tell the real story.  I would expect that the excess deaths for 2020 will be in the range of 10%-15% over the year.

 

I wonder how it will compare to 2017 come the end of the year.

[Footballfirst]

17 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I was looking at excess deaths, Covid deaths and flu deaths at the start of the month. Thought I’d re-post it as we are talking about excess deaths again. 

 

I would not expect that the cancelling of treatments would contribute any more than a very small number to the spike in excess deaths seen between March and May. However I would expect that there would be a lag that would see any such deaths spread across the year.

 

I think that there would be a similar lag for those suffering from mental illness or drug problems who took their own lives. Such events would seem to be be more likely to occur following a period of lockdown rather than early in the crisis.

 

I'd suggest that some of the "avoidable" deaths during March to May were more likely to be those who perhaps had a heart attack or stroke, who delayed getting help before it was too late because they were afraid of going to hospital. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Footballfirst

[graygo]

39 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

I agree, as Covid is another respiratory disease, so if one of the above doesn't kill you then Covid might. However it is the excess deaths that tell the real story.  I would expect that the excess deaths for 2020 will be in the range of 10%-15% over the year.

 

Is it not the case that earlier in the year, during the first wave the excess deaths were high as treatment of Covid-19 patients wasn't great whereas we now have better treatments so less deaths? The graph you posted would seem to back that up. (Sorry, RedJambo posted)

Edited October 29, 2020 by graygo

[doctor jambo]

38 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

I agree, as Covid is another respiratory disease, so if one of the above doesn't kill you then Covid might. However it is the excess deaths that tell the real story.  I would expect that the excess deaths for 2020 will be in the range of 10%-15% over the year.

I expect it will be much lower , as most deaths were already at high risk from most infections .

The deaths have been at the extreme end of life