Robbo-Jambo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 29 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said: And I think if she shat on your heid, you'd still clap like a performing seal. 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, OBE said: UK 5 weeks behind Spain, 3 weeks behind France, Belgium asking the Netherlands if they can help them out because their Covid wards are at capacity, Netherlands asking Germany the very same question. Looks like the 1st wave was a piece-o-piss Vic. They're two very different events. 1st wave amid a general lockdown and high confidence / compliance in and to the rules and guidance. 1st wave fairly quickly flattened and suppressed. 2nd wave amid no general lockdown (yet) and much lower confidence / compliance. Out and out opposition in fact. 2nd wave also amid a different NHS landscape where non-covid workload will continue to be treated. Ongoing infection during this wave is going to remain higher than the 1st wave. Unfortunately I think we'll continue to see an ongoing high flow of covid demand on the NHS which will sustain for quite a few months. God help the frontline people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, steve123 said: Interesting episode this afternoon , working away and suddenly there is a knocking at my front door as though they are trying to come through it - I thought the wife must have forgotten her key or the young one was playing but no to my surprise it was folk from the cat & dog home wanting me to sign up for some d/d. I was pretty surprised with this, nothing against the cat and dog home but did not think they would be allowed to be going door to door at this time. I had a boy from some kind of charity at my door a few weeks ago. Seems strange they’re allowed to do it just now. Read somewhere that the charity sector is really struggling just now. Might have been about the RSPCA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo 4 Ever Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Refusing to wear a face mask amid the pandemic has been linked to anti-social personality disorders, new research shows. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886920305377 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis Albert Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, flogel41 said: I have had a real issue since the start of this whole thing with scientific opinion being presented as fact when it isn’t. There has also been a rush to publish to pre print servers ,which aren’t peer reviewed, which are being scoured by the media and getting into wider circulation without any of the usual checks and balances. There is widespread confirmation bias in action from all sides. The only real evidence based progress being made is in treatment with the dexamethasone study being the best example. The scientific method is robust but needs clear definition of terms, robust review and the willingness to change tack if evidence says so. All of this is lacking. There has been no wavering from the lockdown, suppress, Hope for vaccine approach from all UK governments. Instead of reviewing this approach with evidence around super spreaders, high risk groups, hospital/care home transmissions etc it has been a case of changing which figures are used to unwaveringly stick to their ill defined approach. Governments are under no scrutiny at the moment and are hiding behind “science” to justify bad decisions. Sorry, I’ve had that rant pent up inside for a wee while! Excellent post. The abuse of the phrase or concept of "the science" and "science" has been one of the scandals of this whole thing. Drawing cause and effect conclusions with no consideration of any control is simply unscientific. "We have done X and look Y has resulted" is the unscientific basis for all the complex and increasingly silly rules and restrictions which look like being imposed and escalated indefinitely. I'd just add that 'we did X and the result was Y" "science" doesn't seem.to apply to "we shipped Covid patients into care homes and thousands died" Edited October 28, 2020 by Francis Albert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Victorian said: France and Germany concerned about the impact on their health systems. The same concern exists here and that's why we'll probably end up in a more general lockdown or have an extended period in the higher tiers of the tier system. Someone pointed out that this wave probably wont result in quite the same death rate. Absolutely correct. People are being successfully treated in hospital and long may it continue. The key point that keeps being ignored, willfully imo, is a matter of scale / volume. The trajectory of this wave will result in scale of hospitalisation greatly over-topping resources. By a magnitude. People will only continue to be successfully treated if the hospitals can manage the volume of patients. You could apply a notional death rate of 0.00% to covid on the basis of everyone being saved through treatment. If you have 5 times as many people as you can treat... guess what. Uk and beyond, suppression is actually now suppression & regulate. Regulation of health system demand. Genuine question as I've no idea, is the trajectory of this wave steeper than the first? Sorry if already covered. Edit: just seen Jambo-Jimbo's post. Edited October 28, 2020 by graygo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3fingersreid Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Prisoners released early for fear of an outbreak in jails. same time putting elderly in care homes. opening student halls of residence increase in cases, so close pubs . include Edinburgh and East Lothian in tier 3 when they are the same as other tier 2 areas , that’s making it political . I’m repeating myself again here but none of the people in charge of this country regardless of which parliament can be proud of their actions and for anyone to say shes doing great needs a big dose of reality . getting more angry by the day as I can’t work when it should be do able , I’m actually now getting worried about my mental health , thankfully family and friends keep my spirits up . This govt is getting too easy a ride Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, graygo said: Genuine question as I've no idea, is the trajectory of this wave steeper than the first? Sorry if already covered. Doesn't seem to be as steep yet but it might get steeper soon. Test and trace only ever works at low prevalence and the test and trace has been a dismal failure. There will be a tipping point where test and trace will be completely pointless. Imo we're going to have a general lockdown again. Before Christmas. This tier system isn't going to suppress the wave and they simply wont allow the hospitals being swamped. Edited October 28, 2020 by Victorian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auldbenches Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, flogel41 said: I have had a real issue since the start of this whole thing with scientific opinion being presented as fact when it isn’t. There has also been a rush to publish to pre print servers ,which aren’t peer reviewed, which are being scoured by the media and getting into wider circulation without any of the usual checks and balances. There is widespread confirmation bias in action from all sides. The only real evidence based progress being made is in treatment with the dexamethasone study being the best example. The scientific method is robust but needs clear definition of terms, robust review and the willingness to change tack if evidence says so. All of this is lacking. There has been no wavering from the lockdown, suppress, Hope for vaccine approach from all UK governments. Instead of reviewing this approach with evidence around super spreaders, high risk groups, hospital/care home transmissions etc it has been a case of changing which figures are used to unwaveringly stick to their ill defined approach. Governments are under no scrutiny at the moment and are hiding behind “science” to justify bad decisions. Sorry, I’ve had that rant pent up inside for a wee while! Brilliant summery. Best post I've read on this thread. Edited October 28, 2020 by Auldbenches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1971fozzy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Victorian said: Doesn't seem to be as steep yet but it might get steeper soon. Test and trace onlg ever works at low prevalence and the test and trace has been a dismal failure. There will be a tipping poing where test and trace will be completely pointless. Imo we're going to have a general lockdown again. Before Christmas. This tier system isn't going to suppress the wave and they simply wont allow the hospitals being swamped. I agree. Think it’s a stick on full lockdown at some point in November. Germany having a 4 week one , we won’t be far behind. Not saying it’s right or wrong but it’s going to cripple a lot of businesses and peoples livelihoods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo 4 Ever Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, 3fingersreid said: Prisoners released early for fear of an outbreak in jails. same time putting elderly in care homes. opening student halls of residence increase in cases, so close pubs . include Edinburgh and East Lothian in tier 3 when they are the same as other tier 2 areas , that’s making it political . I’m repeating myself again here but none of the people in charge of this country regardless of which parliament can be proud of their actions and for anyone to say shes doing great needs a big dose of reality . getting more angry by the day as I can’t work when it should be do able , I’m actually now getting worried about my mental health , thankfully family and friends keep my spirits up . This govt is getting too easy a ride What do you do for work mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Jambo 4 Ever said: What do you do for work mate? Hope he’s a hitman and you upset him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Victorian said: Doesn't seem to be as steep yet but it might get steeper soon. Test and trace only ever works at low prevalence and the test and trace has been a dismal failure. There will be a tipping point where test and trace will be completely pointless. How do you reckon that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis Albert Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, graygo said: Genuine question as I've no idea, is the trajectory of this wave steeper than the first? Sorry if already covered. Edit: just seen Jambo-Jimbo's post. From all the graphs I have seen less steep. As others have said that may be down to better treatment eg less use of extreme or unnecessary intubation which killed mamy in the early stages of the first wave Edited October 28, 2020 by Francis Albert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Victorian said: Doesn't seem to be as steep yet but it might get steeper soon. Test and trace only ever works at low prevalence and the test and trace has been a dismal failure. There will be a tipping point where test and trace will be completely pointless. Imo we're going to have a general lockdown again. Before Christmas. This tier system isn't going to suppress the wave and they simply wont allow the hospitals being swamped. So you think they will totally discard the tiered system they have just introduced? Or are you counting tier 4 as lockdown and think they can justify every region being in tier 4? Not trying to be argumentative but if tier 4 isn't cutting the numbers then we're fecked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Francis Albert said: From all the graphs I have seen less steep. As others have said that may be down to better treatment eg less use of extreme or unnecessary intubition which killed mamy in the early stages of the first wave Yes but the treatment and number of deaths doesn't have any effect on the trajectory of hospitalisations which was what he was talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis Albert Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, graygo said: Yes but the treatment and number of deaths doesn't have any effect on the trajectory of hospitalisations which was what he was talking about. The post I replied to was about "the trajectory of this wave" not specifically of hospitalisations. So far on any measure the trajectory seems a bit less steep.from what I have seen. Except perhaps in relation to infections but at the start of the first wave hardly anyone was being tested so that isn't surprising. Edited October 28, 2020 by Francis Albert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack D and coke Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 hours ago, vegas-voss said: GP at our surgery having to retire with long Covid only in mid 40s.Hasn't worked since April and just doesn't know if they will ever get over it so has decided to leave the practice. 2 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said: He's been medically retired with Long Covid already? I know a guy at my work who couldn't get medical retirement even though he had terminal cancer. He was forced to work til he dropped. Aye I’m smelling a rat here an all. Taking huge advantage of the situation it looks like to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas-voss Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, jack D and coke said: Aye I’m smelling a rat here an all. Taking huge advantage of the situation it looks like to me. No idea mate was just told today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis Albert Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, jack D and coke said: Aye I’m smelling a rat here an all. Taking huge advantage of the situation it looks like to me. Vegas-voss didn't say he had been medically retired just that he had decided to.leave the practice. Not that rare at his age given the salaries GPs can get these days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, Francis Albert said: The post I replied to was about "the trajectory of this wave" not specifically of hospitalisations. So far on any measure the trajectory seems a bit less steep.from what I have seen. Except perhaps in relation to infections but at the start of the first wave hardly anyone was being tested so that isn't surprising. Fair enough, it was my post you replied to which was in response to a post about hospitalisations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husref musemic Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, Jambo 4 Ever said: What do you do for work mate? what a creep you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBE Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 East Lothian tier 2, all other Lothians tier 3 doing a buffering job...glorious!... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King prawn Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, Francis Albert said: The post I replied to was about "the trajectory of this wave" not specifically of hospitalisations. So far on any measure the trajectory seems a bit less steep.from what I have seen. Except perhaps in relation to infections but at the start of the first wave hardly anyone was being tested so that isn't surprising. I thought it was steeper this time round but put the lower number of hospitalisations down to more testing of more asymptomatic people. I don’t know about the UK but in Spain they seem to have changed from: March: person A has Covid with strong symptoms and gets a test. Person B was with them - person B must stay at home regardless of strength of symptoms. Now: person A has Covid with any symptoms and gets a test. Person B gets a test also as well as their friends and family (IF the medical centre is not overwhelmed). Based on my little experience of myself, friends and coworkers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, OBE said: East Lothian tier 2, all other Lothians tier 3 doing a buffering job...glorious!... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, OBE said: East Lothian tier 2, all other Lothians tier 3 doing a buffering job...glorious!... Going to set up a border at Musselburgh and hold back the Nidron invasion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3fingersreid Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jambo 4 Ever said: What do you do for work mate? I really appreciate you asking about my health 👍🏻 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmfcbilly Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, SE16 3LN said: Germany has a private health care system while France is mixed tenure I believe. Is the German system not similar to national insurance in this country? My mate was born (and lives) in Duisburg and he pays health contributions that are deducted off his salary so to me its pretty similar, if not the same as working people paying NI here. I think No idea about France though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks said no Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, OBE said: East Lothian tier 2, all other Lothians tier 3 doing a buffering job...glorious!... No 26 bus it is then. Just need to stay awake on the return journey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theshed Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 29 minutes ago, OBE said: East Lothian tier 2, all other Lothians tier 3 doing a buffering job...glorious!... You at the wind up? You’re getting my hopes up 🤔 Edited October 28, 2020 by theshed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, hmfcbilly said: Is the German system not similar to national insurance in this country? My mate was born (and lives) in Duisburg and he pays health contributions that are deducted off his salary so to me its pretty similar, if not the same as working people paying NI here. I think No idea about France though. Germany has a universal multi-payer health care system paid for by a combination of statutory health insurance and private health insurance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Germany Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said: No 26 bus it is then. Just need to stay awake on the return journey. Don’t get off at the Ship Inn, it’s shut ☹️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmfcbilly Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, redjambo said: Germany has a universal multi-payer health care system paid for by a combination of statutory health insurance and private health insurance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Germany So reading that link....89% of Germany's population pay statutory health care through their employer (national insurance then?). The other 11% have private healthcare. The 11% is made up of students, people earning above €60k and civil servants (who get their private subs heavily subsidised through their profession.) If that information is correct that would suggest their set up is very similar to the UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manaliveits105 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Good I can get a pint when I go for my fish 🐟 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said: No 26 bus it is then. Just need to stay awake on the return journey. 😄🍺 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seymour M Hersh Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said: And I think if she shat on your heid, you'd still clap like a performing seal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Excellent summary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Sausage Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Ooft. Big lockdown here in Paris until 1st December. For those who don’t see a relevance, it’s worth watching Macron’s speech (or read an English transcript). He spoke really well, but the arguments he’s used for the restrictions are either already present in the UK, or look certain to happen. Nearly the same lockdown as March, except schools are open (thank ****) and public services (post office etc) remain open. Reckon it’s near certain the UK will follow suit in 3 weeks to allow opening up on Christmas Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBE Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 40 minutes ago, GinRummy said: Going to set up a border at Musselburgh and hold back the Nidron invasion. Take out the Esk bridges and they're fecked Gin... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBE Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, theshed said: You at the wind up? You’re getting my hopes up 🤔 Just wishful thinking and my fingers tripped across the keyboard...sorry mate, sounds good though eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seymour M Hersh Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, weehammy said: She looks really like Deputy Dawg in that pic. Remember him? I can see it but I liked DD so most unfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBE Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, GinRummy said: Don’t get off at the Ship Inn, it’s shut ☹️ Just been refurbished to...is it still the original owners or has it been taken over by a wealthy pub group? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 On the plus side, hotels are cheaper so the budget goes a bit further. Just had a lovely gym, swim and steam room and now having a drink before my meal. Makes working away from home that bit more bearable given the current climate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) Double post Edited October 28, 2020 by Taffin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, jonesy said: She's a criminal, with the blood of thousands on her hands. Hope the judges don't go soft on her when sentencing comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo 4 Ever Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 On 28/02/2020 at 12:40, OmiyaHearts said: It's not working. If anything, I think people are overreacting to the situation because of social media and the ridiculous terms the news agencies are using. I reckon it'll be just about done with come the end of March and everything will be back to normal. Did you mean March 2021? 😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samuel Camazzola Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Jambo 4 Ever said: Refusing to wear a face mask amid the pandemic has been linked to anti-social personality disorders, new research shows. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886920305377 Is this what content from the dark web looks like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Jambo 4 Ever said: Refusing to wear a face mask amid the pandemic has been linked to anti-social personality disorders, new research shows. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886920305377 Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samuel Camazzola Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, jonesy said: Third point is interesting... Highlights • First empirical report of findings from a Latin American country on antisocial traits associated with compliance with containment measures. • Lower levels of empathy and higher levels of Callousness, Deceitfulness, and Risk-taking are associated with lower compliance with containment measures. • The increase in COVID-19 cases in the country are not associated with people's adherence to containment measures. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Lord BJ said: The Germans having a national lockdown as well. Mad Angela oot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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