Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[graygo]

6 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I think it calls into question the figures portrayed at the briefings.    We were told that the latest daily total of new cases was 2,472.   That is a figure derived from the number of tests performed.    The ONS survey figure is from an ongoing community surveillance programme.    There is a disparity that's worth noting.

 

I get what you are saying but the government release actual verified figures. How many tested and how many were positive. I'm not sure how you can call that into question, counting posted tests aside.

That ONS survey involved surveying a small number in a community (15k) and extrapolating over the population of about 50m to give an estimate.

Having said that, obviously not everyone infected gets tested and confirmed so the briefing numbers will always be lower than the actual figures but phrases like "calling into question" and "figures being peddled about at the briefing" are a bit too far imo.

[graygo]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

People keep telling us look at Sweden, but I don't think those people have looked at Sweden themselves.

 

Correct, the impression is that they are carrying on with life as normal. They are not.

[Montgomery Brewster]

6 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

People keep telling us look at Sweden, but I don't think those people have looked at Sweden themselves.

Correct

 

they have the highest death to population rate in the world 

[I P Knightley]

4 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

This probably won’t be a popular opinion here but........
 

The lockdown has clearly been breaking down over the last few weeks. People can only be locked up so long. That point has passed for many. 
 

I believe a lot of this breakdown is down to the government mismanaging its approach and poor messaging. 

 

The lockdown would have been adhered to better if people had been offered a bit more hope with easing of minor restrictions over the period. Lots of things could have been done with no impact to R number, yet they have consistently chosen not to. Instead they have stuck with a message that is well passed its sell by date and continually failed to offer any hope to the general population. Whilst the country has had amongst the most severe restrictions. 
 

This length of lockdown is a direct result of the governments failures. They have failed to address key areas and manage the message appropriately. As a result we are suffering unduly economically and socially, 

 

When you look at the numbers we are reporting, the fact peak passed in April, pretty much all of Europe opening up it’s really unsurprising lockdown is breaking down. What did people think would happen?

 

I’m sorry the time for being locked up has long passed. We are seeing people taking matters into their own hands as the government has failed to. This was always a risk and one we are seeing come to fruition.

 

I hope the route map today’s enables us to get back to living some form of life but people need to be offered hope and very quickly. Otherwise this things will continue to fall apart and to even greater degree. 
 

Lockdown is doing more damage than good now imo and we have been failed massively by our government.

 

You're getting no argument from me.

 

The Government effed up in January/February with their heads in the sand, panicked in February/March and have painted themselves into a corner as a result. If they'd gone 2 or 3 weeks sooner, not only would there have been fewer casualties, they'd have bought more time for a shorter lockdown.

 

They just don't understand people. They needed to be stricter sooner. People have got bored; they've seen open spaces and thought there can be no harm in popping out. Shame the virus doesn't get bored.

[Victorian]

10 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

I get what you are saying but the government release actual verified figures. How many tested and how many were positive. I'm not sure how you can call that into question, counting posted tests aside.

That ONS survey involved surveying a small number in a community (15k) and extrapolating over the population of about 50m to give an estimate.

Having said that, obviously not everyone infected gets tested and confirmed so the briefing numbers will always be lower than the actual figures but phrases like "calling into question" and "figures being peddled about at the briefing" are a bit too far imo.

 

Not really.   You've just highlighted the problem.    Not everyone infected is tested.    The survey extrapolation paints a different picture to the narrative being pushed at the briefing.    

 

We were told that the track and trace system will be able to trace the contacts of 10,000 daily infections.    If the ONS extrapolation is pretty accurate then it leaves very little headroom.     Someone reading out a different figure at the briefing,   derived from a wholly different and unrepresentative sample of tests is offering a potentially false picture.    People are told they can trace 10,000 people and see a figure of 2,472 new cases.    Lots of people will assume there's much more headroom than may well be the case.    

Edited May 21, 2020 by Victorian

[Beni]

5 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

cheers for that, having a quick read it looks like app developers need to create the app using the technology google/apple have made

 

Assuming any potential app works, someone with a positive test could have loads of potentially dangerous contacts. There needs to be the capacity to test those people, otherwise for each positive case, dozens of others might have to go into self isolation. 

Also saw on the news they plan to start contact tracing with or without the app.

[milky_26]

Just now, Montgomery Brewster said:

Correct

 

they have the highest death to population rate in the world 

are you sure about that? the worldometer website has their death rate at 380 per million, we are over 500 and belgium are at almost 800 dead per million

[dobmisterdobster]

2 hours ago, reaths17 said:

Nicola offering to open a garden centre or 2, boris offering UK holidays for all by july, Scotland, wales and England running 3 different tracking systems, you just couldn't make up this shambles of a wee island. to stop the spread we emptied/scattered potential cases out of hospital into care homes(76% of deaths over 75) spreading it far and wide to make space, while keeping closed facilities built and designed for this epidemic, this emergency.

as an island of similar size, we should be where new Zealand is now.

 

New Zealand has a miniscule population compared to the UK. Virtually nobody lives on the south island.

 

NZ is in the middle of the pacific not Europe.

[Francis Albert]

4 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Correct, the impression is that they are carrying on with life as normal. They are not.

Cafes, restaurants, bars ,schools haven't closed, people have not been told to stay at home, most businesses have remained open.. No-one said they are carrying on as normal but it is a very different approach from the great majority of European countries. It is far too soon to tell whethervin the long run Seweden will fare better or worse than the rest.

 

For some reason a lot of people (not you) seem to be hoping their choice back fires badly. 

[Brighton Jambo]

10 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

People keep telling us look at Sweden, but I don't think those people have looked at Sweden themselves.

Given you have quoted me I assume you mean me.

 

i said that Sweden hasn’t been overwhelmed, I did look and it hasn’t.  
 

I wasn’t advocating Sweden’s approach, I merely pointed out that with that approach they haven’t been overwhelmed as seen in northern Italy.  

[graygo]

2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Not really.   You've just highlighted the problem.    Not everyone infected is tested.    The survey extrapolation paints a different picture to the narrative being pushed at the briefing.    

 

We were told that the track and trace system will be able to trace the contacts of 10,000 daily infections.    If the ONS extrapolation is pretty accurate then it leaves very little headroom.     Someone reading out a different figure at the briefing,   derived from a wholly different and unrepresentative sample of tests is offering a potentially false picture.    People are told they can trace 10,000 people and see a figure of 2,472 new cases.    Lots of people will assume there's much more headroom than mag well be the case.    

 

The true figure is probably somewhere between the ONS and government figures to be fair. I agree with you about the lack of headroom.

[Montgomery Brewster]

3 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

are you sure about that? the worldometer website has their death rate at 380 per million, we are over 500 and belgium are at almost 800 dead per million

Must have misheard . Maybe in the Nordic countries ? Your website might be able to confirm 

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, Montgomery Brewster said:

Correct

 

they have the highest death to population rate in the world 

Not on any statistics I have seen, and I have been looking at Sweden regularly since they went down their different route.

 

Highest in the Scandinavian countries but lower than Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium etc. on figures I have seen. With caveat that most country comparisons mask wide variances in how deaths are counted. The UK alone seems to have counted in at least 3 different ways.

 

The only explanation for the fact that Belgium has more than twice the death rate than the Netherlands which I have seen is that they are counting different things. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Francis Albert

[graygo]

1 minute ago, Francis Albert said:

Cafes, restaurants, bars ,schools haven't closed, people have not been told to stay at home, most businesses have remained open.. No-one said they are carrying on as normal but it is a very different approach from the great majority of European countries. It is far too soon to tell whethervin the long run Seweden will fare better or worse than the rest.

 

For some reason a lot of people (not you) seem to be hoping their choice back fires badly. 

 

They've not been told to do all those things but the general population in Sweden are not carrying on as normal through choice.

[Montgomery Brewster]

2 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Not on any statistics I have seen, and I have been looking at Sweden regularly since they went down their different route.

 

Highest in the Scandinavian countries but lower than Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium etc. 

Good man . Must have misheard

[Spellczech]

10 minutes ago, I P Knightley said:

You're getting no argument from me.

 

The Government effed up in January/February with their heads in the sand, panicked in February/March and have painted themselves into a corner as a result. If they'd gone 2 or 3 weeks sooner, not only would there have been fewer casualties, they'd have bought more time for a shorter lockdown.

 

They just don't understand people. They needed to be stricter sooner. People have got bored; they've seen open spaces and thought there can be no harm in popping out. Shame the virus doesn't get bored.

Another big mistake was the level that fines were pegged at - £60? Slovakia which is a lot poorer than UK had 2000EUR or 2 years in jail! - result: 6 deaths.

[Whatever]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

It was in various news outlets this week.

Highest death rate per capita 

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/amp/

[Francis Albert]

3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It was in various news outlets this week.

What? Highest death rates per head of population  in the world to date?

 

Sorry I see it is current (or recent) daily death rate A very different thing.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Francis Albert

[graygo]

1 minute ago, Whatever said:

Highest death rate per capita 

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/amp/

 

The hope is that they have better immunity than others in any second wave.

[Beni]

9 minutes ago, Montgomery Brewster said:

Must have misheard . Maybe in the Nordic countries ? Your website might be able to confirm 

 

No, you're right. They have the highest per capita death rate at this point in their curve.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4&ved=2ahUKEwjj8s7j58TpAhXJ5-AKHZojC5kQiJQBMAF6BAgKEAg&usg=AOvVaw3UmgYhX9PHDZ57v35VhZRu&ampcf=1

[Montgomery Brewster]

2 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

No, you're right. They have the highest per capita death rate at this point in their curve.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4&ved=2ahUKEwjj8s7j58TpAhXJ5-AKHZojC5kQiJQBMAF6BAgKEAg&usg=AOvVaw3UmgYhX9PHDZ57v35VhZRu&ampcf=1

So many statistics 👍🏻

[Victorian]

13 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Not on any statistics I have seen, and I have been looking at Sweden regularly since they went down their different route.

 

Not looking closely enough?

 

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/coronavirus-sweden-out-in-the-cold-with-europes-highest-death-rate/news-story/9635a58931496b9afe3c9ae94b418e31

[Sawdust Caesar]

1 hour ago, milky_26 said:

the world beating is probably going too far but you need the leaders to state that it is going to be very good/ best solution for us. there is no point coming out and saying it will be a competent app as that will reduce confidence the public would have in it.

 

my analogy would be a footballer signs for a club, most managers will come out and wax lyrical about them saying things like they will increase the quality of the team etc. how would people feel if a manager came out and said that the new signing will add numbers to the squad, underwhelmed i would say.

 

it is basically trying to do the best promotion for their system, whether that actually is true we need to wait and see.

 

one other thing how is the google/apple app coming along? i've not seen much about it recently (granted i havent been looking too hard). it might be that the nhs app comes online first and is intially used then the google/apple one becomes available a few weeks later and is determined to be better. but at least for the period between the nhs one and the google/apple one there is some TTI

He could say it is an extremely effective app without the Trump-like boasting, I think that would instil confidence in the public just the same. I don't know why some of them seem to think we're in competition with other nations. I guess I just don't want Boris to copy Trump because every time Trump boasts about how good he is doing we all know he is over-compensating to deflect from the truth.

 

On a different note the Brass Monkey pub on Leith Walk is open. It is serving people through a street side window (they are lucky to have ones that open) and they have it roped off. I've not had a look but it is take-away only, there's no seats outside. I'm hoping they are selling draught beer in large plastic jugs cos I'm gagging on a few pints of extra cold Guinness. Of course I could be wrong and it's just food they are serving, will investigate later.

[hughesie27]

Apparbetly the police are back up to usual levels of around 4000 calls a day. In Edinburgh anyway.

[Francis Albert]

17 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

No, you're right. They have the highest per capita death rate at this point in their curve.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4&ved=2ahUKEwjj8s7j58TpAhXJ5-AKHZojC5kQiJQBMAF6BAgKEAg&usg=AOvVaw3UmgYhX9PHDZ57v35VhZRu&ampcf=1

The graph shows that Sweden had a lower peak, and flattened the curve quicker and it confirms it has had a lower aggregate number of deaths from the virus to date. The "current" daily rate is I suspect  statistically insignificant from that of the UK (with UK daily rate looking a bit more erratic). As I have said no-one will know, for perhaps a year or longer, whether Sweden's approach is better or worse than ours. In perhaps a year we can judge, taking everything (covid 19 and other impacts). But  if nothing else Sweden is an interesting "control" in the experiment (and we are all experimenting). 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Francis Albert

[reaths17]

10 minutes ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

He could say it is an extremely effective app without the Trump-like boasting, I think that would instil confidence in the public just the same. I don't know why some of them seem to think we're in competition with other nations. I guess I just don't want Boris to copy Trump because every time Trump boasts about how good he is doing we all know he is over-compensating to deflect from the truth.

 

On a different note the Brass Monkey pub on Leith Walk is open. It is serving people through a street side window (they are lucky to have ones that open) and they have it roped off. I've not had a look but it is take-away only, there's no seats outside. I'm hoping they are selling draught beer in large plastic jugs cos I'm gagging on a few pints of extra cold Guinness. Of course I could be wrong and it's just food they are serving, will investigate later.

click and collect, buy a burger and litre of draught beer in a bottle, lager beer guiness between 4 0'clock and 8, details on their website

[Francis Albert]

13 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Not looking closely enough?

 

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/coronavirus-sweden-out-in-the-cold-with-europes-highest-death-rate/news-story/9635a58931496b9afe3c9ae94b418e31

Not closely enough to go behind an Australian pay wall. Assuming this is based on the recent daily figures (rather than total deaths to date assumed in my post you quoted) as in the FT article quoted above, see my comments on that above. 

[Brighton Jambo]

What’s happening with the route map, I can’t follow on TV as on a work call.  I’m treating this like a match day thread.  Give me some hope here people!!! 

[Victorian]

Scotland's estimated prevalence is about double that of the UK per Sturgeon's figures and the national ONS surveillance group.

[vegas-voss]

Now that's how you do it.Sensible approach.

[mutley]

15 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

What’s happening with the route map, I can’t follow on TV as on a work call.  I’m treating this like a match day thread.  Give me some hope here people!!! 

Web site with the route map looks have crashed. Can’t get on it just now 

[Sawdust Caesar]

37 minutes ago, reaths17 said:

click and collect, buy a burger and litre of draught beer in a bottle, lager beer guiness between 4 0'clock and 8, details on their website

Cheers, mate.

[Montgomery Brewster]

29 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

What’s happening with the route map, I can’t follow on TV as on a work call.  I’m treating this like a match day thread.  Give me some hope here people!!! 

 

phase 2 for pubs with beer gardens

phase 3 for other pubs 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Montgomery Brewster

[joondalupjambo]

NS outlined the phases and in general what will be in each.  Documents on SG website and details to be published over the forthcoming days.   All depends on continuing decrease in death, infection, cases etc. and the monitoring thereof as to how much can be done.  Looks a measured approach and will give people and business a look at what new normal will look like and what is to happen in the various stages.   

[manaliveits105]

What stage covers congregating outside a football ground waving flags in celebration of .79 of a trophy ?

still not been criticised by SG

[Brighton Jambo]

6 minutes ago, Montgomery Brewster said:

 

phase 2 for pubs with beer gardens

phase 3 for other pubs 

Perfect thanks! 

[joondalupjambo]

2 hours ago, milky_26 said:

the world beating is probably going too far but you need the leaders to state that it is going to be very good/ best solution for us. there is no point coming out and saying it will be a competent app as that will reduce confidence the public would have in it.

 

my analogy would be a footballer signs for a club, most managers will come out and wax lyrical about them saying things like they will increase the quality of the team etc. how would people feel if a manager came out and said that the new signing will add numbers to the squad, underwhelmed i would say.

 

it is basically trying to do the best promotion for their system, whether that actually is true we need to wait and see.

 

one other thing how is the google/apple app coming along? i've not seen much about it recently (granted i havent been looking too hard). it might be that the nhs app comes online first and is intially used then the google/apple one becomes available a few weeks later and is determined to be better. but at least for the period between the nhs one and the google/apple one there is some TTI

Yep say something good but surely do not over egg it otherwise you will get your bum bitten when it turns out is just an ordinary, ok system.   Stating the facts is probably what people want to hear to be honest given the other let downs that have occurred.  Boris bluster I fear.

 

That track and trace expert this morning I referred to in my post,  saying app will most likely not be ready by 1st June and that if government get it out half cocked then it will not be used or there will be little trust in it.  Remember Hancock said it was to be ready by mid May so there must be issues and think they have been discussed in previous posts.  

[vegas-voss]

Schooling  seems a far more sensible approach and more time to get it ready

Edited May 21, 2020 by vegas-voss

[Mikey1874]

Since website has crashed

 

 

[Gordon Ramsay]

Such a difference having a leader who is clear and concise rather than a mumbling buffoon with mixed messages. 

[mutley]

Did I get the wrong end of the stick or is best case scenario 3 weeks between each phase?

[Governor Tarkin]

Just now, mutley said:

Did I get the wrong end of the stick or is best case scenario 3 weeks between each phase?

 

If so my first beer garden pint may only be a month away. 

 

[Governor Tarkin]

Just now, mutley said:

Did I get the wrong end of the stick or is best case scenario 3 weeks between each phase?

 

If so my first beer garden pint may only be a month away. 

 

[graygo]

3 minutes ago, mutley said:

Did I get the wrong end of the stick or is best case scenario 3 weeks between each phase?

 

Not necessarily, the 3 week thing is a legal requirement that things have to be reviewed as a minimum.

Edited May 21, 2020 by graygo

[vegas-voss]

3 minutes ago, mutley said:

Did I get the wrong end of the stick or is best case scenario 3 weeks between each phase?

No each restriction can be quicker done or take longer it really just depends how things are going.

[Norm]

14 hours ago, Tazio said:

Great, never mind the pubs if it goes on into winter there’s every chance I’ll lose my job that I’ve done all my adult life with 25 years in my current place of work. Meanwhile all the arses that are ignoring lockdown will doubtless go back to their jobs as if nothing has happened. 
 

edit. Sorry that sounds like I’m writing off pub workers, I’m not. But Pubs will reopen and bar jobs will be there again, sadly not soon enough for a lot of people. My industry could be wiped out. 

The bar industry will also be wiped out. I reckon at least 50% of the industry will be bankrupt by the end of the year unless there's major changes. 

[graygo]

Nicola nearly greeting when she saw the pictures from Portobello beach yesterday on kickback. (might not have been kickback)

[Taffin]

1 hour ago, JamesM48 said:

Not at all .? I just stated that they are busy you claimed they weren’t . Agree that they should have anticipated that crowds would gather on a warm day to the beach ? Don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to work that out 

 

The poster you quoted said they should disperse then or hand out fines and that they had the time to do so because crime is down. I've no idea whether they have more or less work to do.

 

When you said you disagreed with that I assumed you disagreed and that either they shouldn't disperse them or that they were too busy to deal with it attending the anti-social behaviours you gave an example of. Guess I picked you up wrong 👍

[Mikey1874]

People praising the Scottish Government must have missed the care homes deaths. Or maybe care less than for other things. 

[DETTY29]

I got caught in my drive with my neighbour and had to take headphones out.

 

When I radio back on did I catch Jackson Carlow trying to derail lifting of sanctions beacuse we don't have full TTIS in place despite only a fortnight ago saying we should have went with England who didn't have it in that level of place either?

 

Can't wait for Murdo Fraser or Brian Whittle's questions and comments.