Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[WorldChampions1902]

17 minutes ago, SectionDJambo said:

That slogan on the bus was definitely a major turning point. Ironic that it had a bunch of politicians, who had starved the NHS of funds in the past and most likely have no intention of feeding the mythical saved funds, standing grinning in front of it. The same politicians, and Farage, who have consistently denied, since the referendum, that the message was their idea or that they had anything to do with it. They just happened to be there when it was rolled out. 

It was probably the arch liar and propagandist, Cummings, who thought it up, but they were all happy to pose for photos in front of it.

Similarly, I repeatedly heard Leavers arguments that billions would be returned to the UK to spend how we wish, which is of course correct. Unfortunately, a number of these people live in areas in receipt of heavy grants from the EU which the UK government have/had no say over. Leavers in those regions believed the government’s promise that Westminster would maintain both the grants and the level of those grants when we left. That’s right, Leavers actually believed that a Tory government would maintain the status quo. Of course, the government is now backtracking on that - look what the Cornish are now saying for example.

 

The other thing about this point is that the return of those funds to our exchequer was far outweighed by the financial gains in GDP etc resulting from our EU membership. But that point was never mentioned, naturally.

[Seymour M Hersh]

On 24/12/2020 at 23:35, Ulysses said:

 

Apparently this is a bit specialised, and it's also climate-assisted, so it's something Scotland has some experts in doing - though Ireland can also step into the breach as can one or two other countries in the northern part of the EU.  I'd reckon that the farmers involved would prefer not to have to switch from a product where they have an inbuilt advantage to one where they don't.  This is a concession to the EU which is very small in London, but is a pretty big deal in Perthshire, Moray, Angus and West Aberdeenshire.  Most of the farmers affected are likely to be Tory voters as well.

 

 

Scottish seed potatoes are not banned. They just have to apply for the correct certificate to import them into the EU. A phytosanitary certificate which confirms they have been. properly inspected; free from quarantine pests, within the requirements for regulated non-quarantine pests and practically free from other pests; in line with the plant health requirements of the EU, laid down in Regulation (EU) 2019/2072

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, WorldChampions1902 said:

Similarly, I repeatedly heard Leavers arguments that billions would be returned to the UK to spend how we wish, which is of course correct. Unfortunately, a number of these people live in areas in receipt of heavy grants from the EU which the UK government have/had no say over. Leavers in those regions believed the government’s promise that Westminster would maintain both the grants and the level of those grants when we left. That’s right, Leavers actually believed that a Tory government would maintain the status quo. Of course, the government is now backtracking on that - look what the Cornish are now saying for example.

 

The other thing about this point is that the return of those funds to our exchequer was far outweighed by the financial gains in GDP etc resulting from our EU membership. But that point was never mentioned, naturally.

You can't compare GDP or changes in GDP with funds or changes to funds available to the exchequer. Apples and pears.

[Lone Striker]

4 hours ago, WorldChampions1902 said:

I missed a smiley off my original post. I was being sarcastic. Apologies. 😉

 

I am sure that like many of us, you had numerous discussions with friends, family, colleagues and associates on this topic. My ‘surprise’ at people’s arguments fell into a number of categories. In no particular order:-

 

1. some people I thought I knew were in reality, closet racists.

2. some people who I previously thought as intelligent, certainly lacked rational thought when it came to Brexit. An example is a friend who has worked for JLR in a middle management position for over 20 years, who accused me of “scaremongering” on the detrimental effects of Just in Time Delivery in event of No Deal. Completely refused to accept my point.

3. Some people STILL believe the NHS is getting £350m extra a week.

4. Some people voted Leave on the basis of as little as one ‘dislike’. Usually ‘illegal’ immigration, or cannot get a Doctors appointment (because of immigrants), or our council houses are given to immigrants etc.

5. Many people failed to weigh up the pros and cons of both sides of the argument, making a decision based on a narrow view. A good example is fishing, which is worth 0.1% of GDP, which very likely results in us losing financial services business worth 5% - 7% of GDP.

6. Some people wanted a reduction in EU red tape and bureaucracy which means the U.K. government is now scrambling to recruit 50,000 Customs officials to process the resulting tsunami of red tape and bureaucracy that Brexit delivers!

7. some people were so ideologically committed to sovereignty (whatever that means), they were willing to destroy their own, long-established, thriving family business. An example of this was the farmer in Lincolnshire who voted Leave, knowing full well that the resulting lack of immigrants to pick his crops, meant that he no longer had a viable enterprise.

8. Loads of intelligent Leavers were lazy and didn’t do their own research, instead believing the BS in the predominantly Right Wing media in this country, many of whom are suffering buyers remorse.

9. Clearly the above list is by no means exhaustive, but the vast majority of Leavers IMHO, genuinely believe(d) that they would be much happier outside of the EU - not necessarily that economically, the country would be better off. In fact, many Leavers recognise that we won’t be and they are happy to pay the price. But if that cold fact was put on the side of a bus, would we really have ended up leaving?

 

 

 

 

Great post, 1902  !!    Yep, that's a fairly likely analysis of various folk who will now be phoning in to Jeremy Vine etc to complain.

 

The reliance on EU workers to pick crops is a very stark one - and if there's a big drop in their numbers next summer, we'll all suffer the effect in the supermarkets.        Ironically, the £390m  per week for the NHS probably has been implemented - but only out of necessity to deal with Covid  !!  😉

 

[scott herbertson]

11 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Great post, 1902  !!    Yep, that's a fairly likely analysis of various folk who will now be phoning in to Jeremy Vine etc to complain.

 

The reliance on EU workers to pick crops is a very stark one - and if there's a big drop in their numbers next summer, we'll all suffer the effect in the supermarkets.        Ironically, the £390m  per week for the NHS probably has been implemented - but only out of necessity to deal with Covid  !!  😉

 

 

 

You can't say the extra money came from the savings in EU payments - we borrowed it!

[WorldChampions1902]

2 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

You can't compare GDP or changes in GDP with funds or changes to funds available to the exchequer. Apples and pears.

I can and I did. But feel free to use your own ‘formula’.
 

However you cut it, Brexit is economic vandalism on an epic scale and there is no credible analysis that suggests otherwise. 

[Lone Striker]

3 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

You can't say the extra money came from the savings in EU payments - we borrowed it!

Indeed.  Pretty much every country in the West is now on a mega-borrowing binge, with all economic prudence having  gone out the window.   How the ramifications of all this debt is going to play out is beyond me.  😲

[Guest]

I see the SNP have said that they'll vote against it.

 

Will it have enough support in Parliament to get through?

[dicksojo]

52 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Indeed.  Pretty much every country in the West is now on a mega-borrowing binge, with all economic prudence having  gone out the window.   How the ramifications of all this debt is going to play out is beyond me.  😲

Stephanie Kelton’s recent book on Modern Monetary Theory would say that sovereign governments aren’t like households in terms of debt and that debt held by central banks through the creation of money shouldn’t be of particular consequence to individuals in the real economy. Plus the fact that interest rates are at record lows with no signs of inflation on the way would indicate that the servicing of these astronomical levels of debt shouldn’t be a problem. 
 

A particularly good read in these uncertain times is Thomas Pickety’s Capitalism in the 21 Century (or watch it on Amazon Prime). A short summation would be that the rate of returns on capital is greater than the rate of return on labour. In such a scenario the rich get ticket and the poor get poorer. Trump, nationalism and Brexit are the real world effects of this disparity as people point fingers at those who are different and blame them for the fall in their living standard. The real villain is the erosion of workers rights and the lack of a distributive wealth policy that helps the labour market change and adapt to the changing world. This along with a complete failure of successive governments to plan and implement a post industrial national strategy has resulted in an increasingly intolerant society where those who are different are blamed for the ills created by successively weak governments across the western world.

[Mikey1874]

Loads of reading

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Tough

[Cade]

Nations will simply do what they've been doing since the 2008 crash:

Borrowing like shite from international lenders and printing money to pay it back.

This, of course, devalues the currency and pushes inflation up.

But then you use higher interest rates to bring that back down.

Inflation rates are at historic lows. There's even talk of negative interest rates.

We can print off billions and billions and billions of quid to pay back the international lenders before running into any trouble.

 

This also exposes the blatant lie that austerity always was.

None of it was an economic necessity.

It was a dogmatic political choice.

 

 

[pablo]

39 minutes ago, Candy said:

I see the SNP have said that they'll vote against it.

 

Will it have enough support in Parliament to get through?

 

The SNP are now backing no deal? What a shower they really are.

[manaliveits105]

3 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

The SNP are now backing no deal? What a shower they really are.

Spineless one trick ponies -they only wish the worst on us if it helps their cause -  cant wait for the fat hibby to embarrass Scotland with his whinging squeaky voice droning on about the deal 

[dicksojo]

5 minutes ago, Cade said:

Nations will simply do what they've been doing since the 2008 crash:

Borrowing like shite from international lenders and printing money to pay it back.

This, of course, devalues the currency and pushes inflation up.

But then you use higher interest rates to bring that back down.

Inflation rates are at historic lows. There's even talk of negative interest rates.

We can print off billions and billions and billions of quid to pay back the international lenders before running into any trouble.

 

This also exposes the blatant lie that austerity always was.

None of it was an economic necessity.

It was a dogmatic political choice.

 

 

I think the majority of the debt issued by the western nations is actually owned by their own central banks and not so much international lenders. The us has a only recently reached a position where the fed owns more us debt than the Chinese. Germany is in a position where so much of their debt is owned by either ECB or the Bundesbank that they have effectively crowded out the market entirely for their own debt as other operators can’t find an efficient price. The japanification of Europe is well underway.  
 

Austerity was a social disaster and unfortunately the poor bore a disproportionate weight of the cost.

[dicksojo]

11 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

The SNP are now backing no deal? What a shower they really are.

It really is quite staggering.

 

”This is a very bad deal for Scotland, which will terminate our membership of the EU, rip us out of the world’s largest single market and customs union...” - Ian Blackford.

 

The single largest trading partner of Scotland by a huge margin is the rest of the United Kingdom. 

[SwindonJambo]

1 hour ago, Candy said:

I see the SNP have said that they'll vote against it.

 

Will it have enough support in Parliament to get through?

 

Kier Starmer has said Labour will vote it through so it's a rubber stamp job.

[Ainsley Harriott]

22 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Spineless one trick ponies -they only wish the worst on us if it helps their cause -  cant wait for the fat hibby to embarrass Scotland with his whinging squeaky voice droning on about the deal 

Exactly they are more than happy for Scotland to go to rack and ruin to help build the grievances. After all the time spent warning how disastrous a no deal Brexit would be the actually vote for one.

[The Real Maroonblood]

32 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

The SNP are now backing no deal? What a shower they really are.

I agree. 

Terrible behaviour.

Imagine putting Scotlands interests first.

[pablo]

Sturgeon only three days ago...."a deal is better than no deal"

 

 

[pablo]

2 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I agree. 

Terrible behaviour.

Imagine putting Scotlands interests first.

 

How is a no deal in Scotland's best interest?

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, pablo said:

 

How is a no deal in Scotland's best interest?

I'm generalising about their role. 

It doesn't really matter how they vote.

 

[Justin Z]

25 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I'm generalising about their role. 

It doesn't really matter how they vote.

 

Not to mention what the party's been pushing for is an extension in the midst of Covid, not no deal, but naturally unionists are inclined to make things up because the reality is quite painful for them.

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, dicksojo said:

It really is quite staggering.

 

”This is a very bad deal for Scotland, which will terminate our membership of the EU, rip us out of the world’s largest single market and customs union...” - Ian Blackford.

 

The single largest trading partner of Scotland by a huge margin is the rest of the United Kingdom. 

Scotland is not a member so how can the deal terminate our membership?

[pablo]

19 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Not to mention what the party's been pushing for is an extension in the midst of Covid, not no deal, but naturally unionists are inclined to make things up because the reality is quite painful for them.

 

What do you mean? The vote is to approve the deal. The alternative is no deal and trading with the EU under WTO terms.  If the SNP position is successful, we leave with no deal. 

 

 

[Costanza]

The Deal is bad for the UK and worse than the deal we currently have (no one with any credibility would argue otherwise) but voting against is tacit approval of a no deal which is much worse.

The logical option for the SNP and Labour therefore is to abstain.

[dicksojo]

35 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Scotland is not a member so how can the deal terminate our membership?

I know Scotland isn’t a member in its own right but as a part of the United Kingdom I guess it is a member? 

[Justin Z]

28 minutes ago, Costanza said:

The Deal is bad for the UK and worse than the deal we currently have (no one with any credibility would argue otherwise) but voting against is tacit approval of a no deal which is much worse.

The logical option for the SNP and Labour therefore is to abstain.

 

Under the current circumstances I would tend to agree with this, but in practicality it won't matter. The Tories have their collaborator in Starmer so it'll sail through.

 

37 minutes ago, pablo said:

What do you mean? The vote is to approve the deal. The alternative is no deal and trading with the EU under WTO terms.  If the SNP position is successful, we leave with no deal.

 

It is now, but the SNP have been consistent in their approach since the advent of Covid that an extension was needed to negotiate something less damaging for Scotland and the UK as a whole and to not pile one economic catastrophe on top of another. Voting against fits with this, and if the deal fails to pass could (and should) result in an emergency extension—although as Costanza says, abstaining makes more technical sense.

[pablo]

8 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Under the current circumstances I would tend to agree with this, but in practicality it won't matter. The Tories have their collaborator in Starmer so it'll sail through.

 

 

It is now, but the SNP have been consistent in their approach since the advent of Covid that an extension was needed to negotiate something less damaging for Scotland and the UK as a whole and to not pile one economic catastrophe on top of another. Voting against fits with this, and if the deal fails to pass could (and should) result in an emergency extension—although as Costanza says, abstaining makes more technical sense.

 

 yes, that's what they're doing. 

[pablo]

Sturgeon December 10th

 

Today she's backing no deal. 

[Don Dan]

1 hour ago, Justin Z said:

 

Not to mention what the party's been pushing for is an extension in the midst of Covid, not no deal, but naturally unionists are inclined to make things up because the reality is quite painful for them.

Common sense (IMO) says you should stick with the status quo until we have Covid under some sort of control. We have already witnessed the chaos caused by France shutting the borders because of this new strain of Covid. We will now witness the chaos caused by the reams of paper work and guaranteed failure of the IT systems to deal with the transfer of goods over the border from the 1st January. 

[Cade]

SNP voting for any deal is a tacit acceptance of Brexit and acting contrary to the voting instructions of their constituents, who voted heavily against leaving.

SNP voting against the deal a tacit acceptance of no deal.

 

Both of these things are true.

And both of these things are false.

 

[Pans Jambo]

What a load of utter shyte posted on this last page.

Scotland didnt vote for Brexit but the numpties expect the democratically elected  MP’s to vote through a deal thats entirely shittier than the one we have?

SNP will abstain which is what every labour supporter in Scotland embraces anyway.

 

Time to get out of this “union” of equals!

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, Justin Z said:

 

Not to mention what the party's been pushing for is an extension in the midst of Covid, not no deal, but naturally unionists are inclined to make things up because the reality is quite painful for them.

Fair comment. 

[GinRummy]

Regardless of what anyone says, Brexit was caused by English voters who wanted restrictions on immigration. It’s fantastic a deal has been struck but we wouldn’t need a deal if we were still part of the EU. The tories selling the deal as some sort of grand success is hollow as ****. 

[Unknown user]

Just now, Pans Jambo said:

What a load of utter shyte posted on this last page.

Scotland didnt vote for Brexit but the numpties expect the democratically elected  MP’s to vote through a deal thats entirely shittier than the one we have?

SNP will abstain which is what every labour supporter in Scotland embraces anyway.

 

Time to get out of this “union” of equals!

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, GinRummy said:

Regardless of what anyone says, Brexit was caused by English voters who wanted restrictions on immigration. It’s fantastic a deal has been struck but we wouldn’t need a deal if we were still part of the EU. The tories selling the deal as some sort of grand success is hollow as ****. 

Also

[kila]

6 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Regardless of what anyone says, Brexit was caused by English voters who wanted restrictions on immigration. It’s fantastic a deal has been struck but we wouldn’t need a deal if we were still part of the EU. The tories selling the deal as some sort of grand success is hollow as ****. 

 

Wonder if Charles will plead to the plebs to go picking fruit and veg again this summer.

 

Those damn immigrants taking English jobs.

 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, kila said:

 

Wonder if Charles will plead to the plebs to go picking fruit and veg again this summer.

 

Those damn immigrants taking English jobs.

 

The UK government has a fairly stark choice regarding stuff like this. Assuming Brits continue to turn their back on such back breaking work (likely imo) they can either allow workers for the EU, workers from elsewhere in the world or sacrifice these industries. They can’t win with the public regardless of which option they pick. 

[kila]

6 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

The UK government has a fairly stark choice regarding stuff like this. Assuming Brits continue to turn their back on such back breaking work (likely imo) they can either allow workers for the EU, workers from elsewhere in the world or sacrifice these industries. They can’t win with the public regardless of which option they pick. 

 

I do wonder how many EU workers doing those sort of jobs will still fancy coming over, if the hostile environment that created the Brexit mess is brewing hotter because things are getting worse for those who thought it'd be the solution.

 

I look back at the 2012 London Olympics and the image being portrayed to the world. Just doesn't feel like that anymore. Embarrassed and ashamed rather than any sort of pride.

 

Hopefully the EU is sympathetic to Scotland's situation should any IndyRef2 happen. MSP's already voted to keep Scottish law in line with EU law.

 

[GinRummy]

2 minutes ago, kila said:

 

I do wonder how many EU workers doing those sort of jobs will still fancy coming over, if the hostile environment that created the Brexit mess is brewing hotter because things are getting worse for those who thought it'd be the solution.

 

I look back at the 2012 London Olympics and the image being portrayed to the world. Just doesn't feel like that anymore. Embarrassed and ashamed rather than any sort of pride.

 

Hopefully the EU is sympathetic to Scotland's situation should any IndyRef2 happen. MSP's already voted to keep Scottish law in line with EU law.

 

Hadn’t really considered EU workers no longer wanting to come even if permitted. It’s a good point. 
 

The EU have been a very convenient source of blame for the UK government for a long time. Everything from a shortage of school places and houses to lack of hospital appointments and indeed NHS funding has been blamed on being ‘unable to control our own borders’. People down there expect big improvements to these situations. Going to be sorely disappointed. 
 

I think the EU will do everything to allow Scotland back into the fold after independence. I just can’t see any reason why they wouldn’t. 

[Pans Jambo]

40 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Regardless of what anyone says, Brexit was caused by English voters who wanted restrictions on immigration. It’s fantastic a deal has been struck but we wouldn’t need a deal if we were still part of the EU. The tories selling the deal as some sort of grand success is hollow as ****. 

Well exactly!

And I will bet the plebs that voted for Brexit were not aware that the UK had the legal right to ship out any EU citizen that hadnt worked in the UK for 3 months!

 

AND, as France just demonstrated, they could close borders at any time WITHOUT the EU’s consent.

 

Even now, as you can see by the posts on this thread, the people who were conned and lied into voting for Brexit STILL wont admit that they were, in fact, LIED to.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Pans Jambo

[GinRummy]

2 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Well exactly!

And I will bet the plebs that voted for Brexit were not aware that the UK had the legal right to ship out any EU citizen that hadnt worked in the UK for 3 months!

 

AND, as France just demonstrated, they could close borders at any time WITHOUT the UK’s consent.

 

Even now, as you can see by the posts on this thread, the people who were conned and lied into voting for Brexit STILL wont admit that they were, in fact, LIED to.

The proof of the pudding will be that the things people were told would improve after Brexit will not improve. As you say, it’s based on a pack of shameless lies. 

[Costanza]

1 hour ago, Justin Z said:

 

Under the current circumstances I would tend to agree with this, but in practicality it won't matter. The Tories have their collaborator in Starmer so it'll sail through.

 

 

It is now, but the SNP have been consistent in their approach since the advent of Covid that an extension was needed to negotiate something less damaging for Scotland and the UK as a whole and to not pile one economic catastrophe on top of another. Voting against fits with this, and if the deal fails to pass could (and should) result in an emergency extension—although as Costanza says, abstaining makes more technical sense.

I agree on a deal failing to pass should ordinarily lead to an emergency extension but this is an ideological Tory Government who wouldn't extend during a global pandemic so would never happen.

They could also point to opposition parties previously failing to coalesce around a deal that would have been acceptable to them.

There were opportunities to stop a hard Brexit but these were passed up.

It's sh1tty or really sh1tty on the table now.

Voting through Article 50, not agreeing a soft Brexit, arguing over who would lead a non Tory minority government....it's been frustrating watching the Remain opposition throughout this.

Not as frustrating as the Tories intent on subjecting the UK to economic and cultural harm of course but frustrating all the same.

[pablo]

9 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

 

I think the EU will do everything to allow Scotland back into the fold after independence. I just can’t see any reason why they wouldn’t. 

 

This is naive in the extreme. Remember we would be joining as a new country. Scotland wouldn't be returning to anything, it's never been a member.

[Cade]

Scotland would be welcomed with open arms.

Anyone arguing that point is either mentally deficient or trolling.

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, Cade said:

Scotland would be welcomed with open arms.

Anyone arguing that point is either mentally deficient or trolling.

[pablo]

5 minutes ago, Cade said:

Scotland would be welcomed with open arms.

Anyone arguing that point is either mentally deficient or trolling.

 

Of course, but we would have to meet the criteria the same as any other candidate country. They wouldn't make it easier for us just because.....and getting there would be a tough journey.

[kila]

5 minutes ago, pablo said:

This is naive in the extreme. Remember we would be joining as a new country. Scotland wouldn't be returning to anything, it's never been a member.

 

Scotland is already intertwined with the EU. It is merely being severed as part of the UK's Brexit. The EU know Scotland wanted to remain, so will be expecting such a request if independence ever happens.

 

If Scotland keeps up pace with EU laws then it makes re-entry a lot simpler. There'd be a lot to iron out, but I think the EU would be keen to support Scotland as much as it could. Scotland is a great place to invest in as it's small and progressive. Plus a thriving Scotland in the EU would really piss off Westminster and I think the EU would enjoy that.

 

[GinRummy]

11 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

This is naive in the extreme. Remember we would be joining as a new country. Scotland wouldn't be returning to anything, it's never been a member.

An expansionist organisation will expand. They have bent their own rules whenever it has suited them in the past. It’s naive to think they wouldn’t again if they think it’s advantageous to them. What are the disadvantages of the EU allowing an independent Scotland to join.