Cooncil Elections

[deesidejambo]

The sky prediction based on yesterday's vote has the Tory party with a 48 majority at Westminster with SNP holding 54 seats.

The key indicator for me is the percentage of first preference votes going to SNP.   If its lower than 40% then they can kiss Indy goodbye.

[Sten Guns]

The Scottish Seperarist Communist party taking a hiding.

[Radio Ga Ga]

SNP now showing an overall gain of 11

 

Seriously, why do you continue to make a fool of yourself?

[Space Mackerel]

Scottish Yoons on here delighted they didn't get rag dolled for the first time in 30 years.

 

Bless.

[ToadKiller Dog]

In football terms

Basically the SNP won 2-1 instead of 3-1 yesterday .

The Cons won the singing competition .

Lab feel no overall control in Glasgow as some kind of victorious score draw ( Frank macavity actually arguing such on sky ).

[deesidejambo]

Scottish Yoons on here delighted they didn't get rag dolled for the first time in 30 years.

 

Bless.

But at least yer Indy dream is over. Can't wait to hear the first choice percentages. Less than 40% and I'm laughing.

[Space Mackerel]

In football terms

Basically the SNP won 2-1 instead of 3-1 yesterday .

The Cons won the singing competition .

Lab feel no overall control in Glasgow as some kind of victorious score draw ( Frank macavity actually arguing such on sky ).

That's almost exactly what I was going to post.

 

I was going to add it was the equivalent of a pre season friendly and the Yoons brought along their first starting 11 against the SNP reserves.

[deesidejambo]

In football terms

Basically the SNP won 2-1 instead of 3-1 yesterday .

The Cons won the singing competition .

Lab feel no overall control in Glasgow as some kind of victorious score draw ( Frank macavity actually arguing such on sky ).

They can win 5-1 for all I care. What matters is the share of the vote as that indicates what will happen at the GE. Any less than 40% for the Nats and farewell Indy

[Thunderstruck]

That's almost exactly what I was going to post.

 

I was going to add it was the equivalent of a pre season friendly and the Yoons brought along their first starting 11 against the SNP reserves.

The original was a very strange post hoc rationalisation. That you agree with it simply reinforces that diagnosis.

 

Krankie, you time is up. Tick follows tock, follows tick.... I'm sure you get the drift.

[Space Mackerel]

They can win 5-1 for all I care. What matters is the share of the vote as that indicates what will happen at the GE. Any less than 40% for the Nats and farewell Indy

It's a council election, nothing more nothing less.

 

The Yoons built this up as some pre referendum vote and you're getting suckered along with the diatribe.

[deesidejambo]

It's a council election, nothing more nothing less.

 

The Yoons built this up as some pre referendum vote and you're getting suckered along with the diatribe.

Indeed the real test will come on June 8th. On that day the SNP will poll less than 40% and Nicola will be cornered. She will have to proceed with Indy2 with nowhere near the 60% she was targeting.

 

Tick tock.

[Space Mackerel]

The original was a very strange post hoc rationalisation. That you agree with it simply reinforces that diagnosis.

 

Krankie, you time is up. Tick follows tock, follows tick.... I'm sure you get the drift.

Transfer these results into the GE and we still end up with 54 seats.

 

Remember, that's your lot peaked and we still have the U18 vote to count in any referendum. Coupled with the people from the EU who will still be here then I wouldn't be getting too ****** a hoop.

[Toxteth O'Grady]

Labour are finished when their voters have switched to the Torys - Utterly finished

[deesidejambo]

Transfer these results into the GE and we still end up with 54 seats.

 

Remember, that's your lot peaked and we still have the U18 vote to count in any referendum. Coupled with the people from the EU who will still be here then I wouldn't be getting too ****** a hoop.

The polls don't look to good on that front.

 

Still 55/45 and not moving.

[Space Mackerel]

Indeed the real test will come on June 8th. On that day the SNP will poll less than 40% and Nicola will be cornered. She will have to proceed with Indy2 with nowhere near the 60% she was targeting.

 

Tick tock.

Let's be honest, I had a swatch at the list and asked the guy what the turnout was when I voted yesterday. Hardly anyone had been crossed off and that was at 6pm. My polling station is sandwiched in 1 of the roughest parts of Edinburgh. These people more or less couldn't give 2 hoots but probably will give a shit more in an independence referendum or a GE one.

[GBJambo]

It's a council election, nothing more nothing less.

 

The Yoons built this up as some pre referendum vote and you're getting suckered along with the diatribe.

Nah it was the natz that did

[Thunderstruck]

Let's be honest, I had a swatch at the list and asked the guy what the turnout was when I voted yesterday. Hardly anyone had been crossed off and that was at 6pm. My polling station is sandwiched in 1 of the roughest parts of Edinburgh. These people more or less couldn't give 2 hoots but probably will give a shit more in an independence referendum or a GE one.

Back the truck up!

 

Are you now rationalising on percentage of the electorate!

 

How times change.

[Space Mackerel]

Back the truck up!

 

Are you now rationalising on percentage of the electorate!

 

How times change.

Ive no idea what the percentages are.

[GBJambo]

Interesting that the Snp lost control over Dundee and failed to gain a majority in Glasgow

Only 2 cities that are pro independence.

[deesidejambo]

Let's be honest, I had a swatch at the list and asked the guy what the turnout was when I voted yesterday. Hardly anyone had been crossed off and that was at 6pm. My polling station is sandwiched in 1 of the roughest parts of Edinburgh. These people more or less couldn't give 2 hoots but probably will give a shit more in an independence referendum or a GE one.

Blaming it on low turnout?

 

And noting that the SNP fielded 650 candidates to the Tories 380 thereby capitalising on the STV method then it didn't go well for the SNP.

[Space Mackerel]

Blaming it on low turnout?

 

And noting that the SNP fielded 650 candidates to the Tories 380 thereby capitalising on the STV method then it didn't go well for the SNP.

Still waiting to hear about this massive SNP collapse.

[deesidejambo]

Still waiting to hear about this massive SNP collapse.

Me too. Once it's announced their share is below 40% I'll be sure to let you know.

[aussieh]

Once again the Saviours of Scotland rule supreme, whilst the red and blue Tories play musical chairs. One pish second party replaced by another pish second party.

 

Roll on the 8th of June to we crush the unionist oppressors of Scotland.

 

 

 

 

Tick Tock

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mintit!!!!!!!

[ToadKiller Dog]

Sure the SNP should be plus 6 , 431 seats this time 425 last time ?

News Chanel's showing -7

[Space Mackerel]

Me too. Once it's announced their share is below 40% I'll be sure to let you know.

You'll be waiting a long time pal.

[1874robbo]

SNP now showing an overall gain of 11

 

Cade= comical Ali does exist

[GBJambo]

Nice to see sturgeons campaign to "kick the tories out of scotland" going so well. Lol

[deesidejambo]

Does anyNationalist on here not think it would have been wiser for Nicola to have waited for the 60% share before she went for Section 30?

[deesidejambo]

You'll be waiting a long time pal.

That post will come back to haunt you. Allegedly.

[michael_bolton]

I see people on this thread posting about losses for the SNP and I'm a tad confused.

 

The Guardian's results page has the SNP gaining 31 councillors.

 

STV site showing SNP as the largest party in ten more councils than they were before.

 

What am I not seeing?

[maroonlegions]

What is the over all historical  vote percentages in Council elections via votes before general elections for all parties ?? 

 

Is there a historical voting trend that gives a false reading of the way the populace actually vote in a general election??

 

What i mean is the % of turn outs  in most council elections  compared to the turn out percentages via a general elections a true enough indicator of how the vote will go in a general election??  

 

Are council turn outs and voting trend percentages true reflections of the outcomes of general elections??

 

Is the "swing-pendulum"  meter  in council elections comparable to the general election one??

 

Turn outs are important after all.

[John Findlay]

SNP lost seven councillors overall. Greens made a gain of 5 overall. So that more or less wipes out the SNP losses.

Labour the biggest losers and the largest gainers the Conservatives.

Doesn't take a genius to workout where the Labour vote went.

 

Taking the council elections overall and for arguments sake is repeated in the general election. Then Labour are going to take a big doing with the exception of their die hard places in England and Wales.

Labour north of the border really are in a conundrum. They are no longer seen as the party of the working man/woman and are no longer seen as a strong unionist party. Their leadership have no idea who to fight the hardest. SNP or conservatives. The fact the calibre of their leaders and candidates is mediocre doesn't help them either. They really would in my humble opinion say they do not fear being in an independent Scotland. Fight on that front.

The GE up here will be a straight fight between SNP and Conservatives. Biggest problem for the Tories up here. Theresa May. May won't do much if any campaigning up here. That will be left to Ruth Davidson.

SNP have the dilemma of indyref2 and Brexit.

 

Let battle commence.

[Space Mackerel]

I see people on this thread posting about losses for the SNP and I'm a tad confused.

 

The Guardian's results page has the SNP gaining 31 councillors.

 

What am I not seeing?

Deesides imaginary counting in his head more than likely

[Zibi]

Most North Brits are rallying round the Tories now. Interesting times.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Would like to just tuck in and say thanks to all the posters who provide really good comment on the elections here.  I'm lost on most of the nuance but my research means I need to keep up on this stuff.

 

 

I see people on this thread posting about losses for the SNP and I'm a tad confused.

 

The Guardian's results page has the SNP gaining 31 councillors.

 

STV site showing SNP as the largest party in ten more councils than they were before.

 

What am I not seeing?

 

I'm similarly confused.  BBC has SNP -7 but the Telegraph had it +31.  (I can't find the Guardian's tables for Scotland.)

 

Also, if SNP -7 and Green +5 is correct, hardly a bad night for IndyRef2?

[Mikey1874]

It's bad results for Labour. Might actually be downplayed as again independence had been made the big issue. But it's still the main result from this. And I'm staunch Labour.

 

At local level interesting what happens next. The convention seems to be that the leading party who got most seats has first go at putting a coalition together. But what will be the view and will there be a national policy. In Glasgow I think SNP can join with the Greens to get a majority. Which matches national position kind of. More complicated in Edinburgh where the figures don't easily add up. Think they need 3 parties to get majority unless it's SNP and Conservative. Which Nicola said wouldn't happen. Will there be unionist coalitions. But it is different at local level where there already is a variety of different options including SNP/ Tory and SNP/ Labour.

 

Btw I think a 50.5% turnout in Edinburgh is pretty good

[markphmfc]

Nicola claiming the Tories were the ones to put the referendum topic centre stage and not the SNP.

 

Yikes

[Space Mackerel]

That post will come back to haunt you. Allegedly.

None of the MSM people can actually count. I would take your percentages will a lorry load of salt

 

https://wingsoverscotland.com/chinese-arithmetic/

 

SNP are actually UP seven seats.

[GBJambo]

So the snp have 35% of the overall seats

[aussieh]

SNP +6

[michael_bolton]

The SNP got 32% of first preference votes in 2012, so I think anywhere around there is a decent result for them considering how long they've been in control in Scotland.

 

I'm still very confused. Comparing the 2012 results and these results the SNP clearly seem to have gained. Am I missing something that means they've actually lost?

[michael_bolton]

From The Scotsman:

 

Where are they getting this?

 

"The Tories have gained more than 100 seats across the country with about two-thirds of the councils having declared, while the SNP has lost more than a dozen"
 

[EwanHearts]

The SNP got 32% of first preference votes in 2012, so I think anywhere around there is a decent result for them considering how long they've been in control in Scotland.

 

I'm still very confused. Comparing the 2012 results and these results the SNP clearly seem to have gained. Am I missing something that means they've actually lost?

55-45. That means they lost.

[aussieh]

So the snp have 35% of the overall seats

Pretty good going by the voting rules. Fptp would've given them double.

[Jamboross]

The SNP got 32% of first preference votes in 2012, so I think anywhere around there is a decent result for them considering how long they've been in control in Scotland.

 

I'm still very confused. Comparing the 2012 results and these results the SNP clearly seem to have gained. Am I missing something that means they've actually lost?

 

Comparing 2012 with 2017, the SNP have gained 6. I think they picked up a few council seats in by-elections after 2012 though meaning they actually held 438 going into the election, thus a drop of 7. It's a bit of an odd comparison for the media to be using though as in General Elections they disregard by-election results and compare with the previous General Election. 

 

Not sure we can use the first-preference vote share as a reliable forecast for the upcoming General Election either; STV and FPTP are obviously wildly different voting systems and people will vote differently. For example the Green candidate was my first preference in the council elections but I won'r be voting for them next month. 

[deesidejambo]

Would like to just tuck in and say thanks to all the posters who provide really good comment on the elections here. I'm lost on most of the nuance but my research means I need to keep up on this stuff.

 

 

 

I'm similarly confused. BBC has SNP -7 but the Telegraph had it +31. (I can't find the Guardian's tables for Scotland.)

 

Also, if SNP -7 and Green +5 is correct, hardly a bad night for IndyRef2?

It all depends on the share of first preference vote.

 

For Indy2 to be viable the Indy parties, SNP and Greens ,need to amalgamate over 50% of the first preference votes. And that assumes 100% those voting Green would also support Indy which is not likely.

 

Any less than 50% and Indy looks less likely, but if the SNP drop below 40%, which I hope to see, then **** Indy.

 

Anyway I accept the Council election is an indicator, and not definitive: what is more important is the GE.

[aussieh]

 

From The Scotsman:

 

Where are they getting this?

 

"The Tories have gained more than 100 seats across the country with about two-thirds of the councils having declared, while the SNP has lost more than a dozen"

 

Most folk don't look into the news they're fed. You just have to listen to the Tory mouthpiece of the BBC Laura wits her face, to see the what's going on. According to her the SNP has lost.

[markphmfc]

Was a wee bit downbeat about what seemed a slight decline however looking like several media outlets getting it wrong

[Mikey1874]

The SNP got 32% of first preference votes in 2012, so I think anywhere around there is a decent result for them considering how long they've been in control in Scotland.

 

I'm still very confused. Comparing the 2012 results and these results the SNP clearly seem to have gained. Am I missing something that means they've actually lost?

2012 was indeed the last good election for Labour

 

The SNP are entitled to say it's a good result. I think the real gain is how they take their policies to local level to improve things for people.

 

But especially if you oppose independence (still a majority just) you are reasonably entitled to question every SNP result.

 

Nicola has gone on and on and on and on about independence. So for her to suddenly claim a drop in vote compared to say last year is a good result when people are voting Tory because they oppose independence is a bit disingenuous.

 

I liked her better when she said she would wait till polls were consistently at 60% before going for another referendum.

[aussieh]

It all depends on the share of first preference vote.

 

For Indy2 to be viable the Indy parties, SNP and Greens ,need to amalgamate over 50% of the first preference votes. And that assumes 100% those voting Green would also support Indy which is not likely.

 

Any less than 50% and Indy looks less likely, but if the SNP drop below 40%, which I hope to see, then **** Indy.

 

Anyway I accept the Council election is an indicator, and not definitive: what is more important is the GE.

How'd Aberdeen go today?