Thunderstruck Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 On polls - John Curtice has a good line- "Polls should taken, not inhaled." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 YouGov is online and is a money-making poll company. You can register for it online and it will take your demographics like age, income, voting history etc. Then it invites you to participate in various polls at its choice. It chooses who to poll. It conducts poll sfor money, and sponsors have the opportunity to influence who it want spoled. so - if it wants - it can poll (without each individual being aware) anyone in, for example, Pilton. It will be no surprise that the outcome would be different to that if it polled Morningside. Lilewise it has age demographic data - it could poll only those over 60, and under 16, or any combinations thereof. YouGov recognises this and adjust results based on weighting factors etc to try and come up with a defendable outcome. At the end of the day though - it relies on people pro-actively applying to become respondents, hence opening it up to the risk that its demographics get hijacked by campaign groups, of both sides. On-street polling is more random (which is what is required) but suffers from geographical constraints. For example if they poll East Glasgow they will get a different result than West Aberdeen. Again they adjust for these. So both the above rely on adjustments to be made for various factors. Telephone polling is the closest the pollsters can get to independent random sampling. Even that has risk related to who answers phones at what time etc, but at least they are able to show random sampling of numbers from the phone books. The key to statistical analysis is to demonstrate random sampling of a population. YouGov definately is not random. So the poll results mean pretty much nothing? Particularly when all they're tell us is that it might be yes, might be no. Nothing that we don't already know. How can it account for a 'swing' in voting, if they're not sampling the same people. And if they're sampling the same people, and the results keep changing, who are these people that are so undecided that they change their minds daily. If they're not sampling the same people, then obviously the results will be different every time, because it's a different sample. They might sample 1000 people tomorrow that just so happens to be full of Yes voters, and suddenly it's all for Yes again. The next day its the majority NO, etc. Why is so much importance been put into these numbers that they get people panicking? They're clearly a very very basic estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 You mean the United States of America? Surely an example of Devo Max? I thought you were pro- Yes? Is there a devo max option on the ballot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Lyon Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes the No vote will deliver devo max Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes the No vote will deliver devo max Might, might not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Is there a devo max option on the ballot? Yup - put a cross in the No box Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Might, might not. Why might it not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossthejambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes the No vote will deliver devo max I'd like to see where you're getting that from, all we've been "promised" is more powers. Absolutely no details have been confirmed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I'd like to see where you're getting that from, all we've been "promised" is more powers. Absolutely no details have been confirmed. Nah man. 100% guaranteed full fiscal autonomy in the result of a No vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartofmidlothian Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I'd like to see where you're getting that from, all we've been "promised" is more powers. Absolutely no details have been confirmed. THere has to be devo max, the groundswell of discontent has been such and the sacle of the YES campaign so vociferous that it is inevitable to take the wind out the Indy movement, Thats how politics works. Throw the dog a bone and it stops barking (or sates the appetite of the moderates in the YES corner) Scotland can tolerate Tory government if it feels it can nullify the crazy crap they pull through greater powers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) I'd like to see where you're getting that from, all we've been "promised" is more powers. Absolutely no details have been confirmed. The 3 unionists set out their individual proposals sone time ago which all have agreed would be implemented if they win the general election. Arguably the Tories results in the biggest shift of fiscal powers of the three. It looks like there might now be an agreed commission which the SNP have been asked to take part in to form a universal package all are agreed. Edited September 12, 2014 by jambo1185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I was voting Yes, but now I've decided to vote No. The Yes voters highjacking the Sky News interview are utterly emabrrassing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderstruck Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 THere has to be devo max, the groundswell of discontent has been such and the sacle of the YES campaign so vociferous that it is inevitable to take the wind out the Indy movement, Thats how politics works. Throw the dog a bone and it stops barking (or sates the appetite of the moderates in the YES corner) Scotland can tolerate Tory government if it feels it can nullify the crazy crap they pull through greater powers Exactly. This is also where the Membership of EU question is taking us. That is about extracting more concessions from Brussels. The UK has a long and successful record of doing well. There will be no appetite to leave and no appetite in Europe to see us go so negotiations will take place. The threat of secession has also worked to the advantage of Quebec as a Canadian Province. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Draper Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Quick question for the couple of posters who mentioned working in unis. Professor Tompkins has been an active no campaigner throughout, has he been given dispensation or does he have to keep his mouth shut when he's on campus teaching but you can do what you want out of work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I was voting Yes, but now I've decided to vote No. The Yes voters highjacking the Sky News interview are utterly emabrrassing. Seems legit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes people agressively or otherwise bombing every event, interview are nicely helping the Nae campaign. Take it its a determined deliberate strategy just to get the Yes word in front of people's faces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Quick question for the couple of posters who mentioned working in unis. Professor Tompkins has been an active no campaigner throughout, has he been given dispensation or does he have to keep his mouth shut when he's on campus teaching but you can do what you want out of work? You think everyone in every university is keeping tabs on every professor? [modedit] Yes people agressively or otherwise bombing every event, interview are nicely helping the Nae campaign. Take it its a determined deliberate strategy just to get the Yes word in front of people's faces. Do you switch to being a Hibs fan every time you see an arsehole Hearts fan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hasselhoff Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 If you really think the big 3 parties would not give us the increased powers now after a No vote, you're as paranoid as Wings and his rats.... Yes voters would be angry at the vote and angry full stop. No voters would be pleased with the vote and angry if powers option is removed Result would be the entire country of Scotland being angry at WM - would not be worth their hassle doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I was voting Yes, but now I've decided to vote No. The Yes voters highjacking the Sky News interview are utterly emabrrassing. poster stated BBC are biased as well - probably didn't help. Adam Boulton of Sky News told it as it is - Yes going about attaching to every No event fair enough but some come across as demented Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 If you really think the big 3 parties would not give us the increased powers now after a No vote, you're as paranoid as Wings and his rats.... Yes voters would be angry at the vote and angry full stop. No voters would be pleased with the vote and angry if powers option is removed Result would be the entire country of Scotland being angry at WM - would not be worth their hassle doing that. So what about the voters who don't want devo max, but rather the status quo? They no longer get a voice because of an angry contingent of Yes voters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 You think everyone in every university is keeping tabs on every professor? [modedit] Tompkins has been on newsnight, scotland tonight (several times) and multiple public debates. He also lectures at one of the unis that a poster mentioned which was why I asked as if there was a position on lecturers at that uni it seemed odd he was allowed to be so prominent. Im not talking about someone just handing out a few leaflets. [modedit] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes the No vote will deliver devo max That will depend on the will of Westminster and English MPs . They have a Veto http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/uk-to-get-veto-on-gordon-browns-devo-proposals/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 You think everyone in every university is keeping tabs on every professor? [modedit] Do you switch to being a Hibs fan every time you see an arsehole Hearts fan? unfortunately seen quite a few "arsehole" (your word) Yes people on tv eg guy yesterday Yes are denying it but its easily answered - "yes we have some enthusiastic supporters... etc etc" but I say it is doing Yes campaign harm soon find out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boaby Ewing Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I was voting Yes, but now I've decided to vote No. The Yes voters highjacking the Sky News interview are utterly emabrrassing. There's a joke in there somewhere linking that story you told about your ex and the mentality of 'No' voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nookie Bear Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 So what about the voters who don't want devo max, but rather the status quo? They no longer get a voice because of an angry contingent of Yes voters? If the polls had been consistently showing 65%+ in favour of NO then Westminster would have sat back and let the thing play out, and offer[precisely zero. Because it is so tight then they have to offer something because, although there may not be a majority wanting independence, there is certainly a massive desire for change that it needs to be respected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 So what about the voters who don't want devo max, but rather the status quo? They no longer get a voice because of an angry contingent of Yes voters? Yep, pretty much. Promises have now been made, and hats off to the YES for that. Scotland will be safer from Tory mentalism, RUK will have the left wing labour buffer that stops perpetual Tory rule and moderates them out a bit and we all sleep happy in our beds Apart from Salmond who I expect to stand down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 unfortunately seen quite a few "arsehole" (your word) Yes people on tv eg guy yesterday Yes are denying it but its easily answered - "yes we have some enthusiastic supporters... etc etc" but I say it is doing Yes campaign harm soon find out Harm it in what way? You genuinely believe that there's folk sitting at home, either voting Yes or are undecided, have seen some dick on the news and have decided "Right, that's it. That guy is acting like a tit on the telly, and he supports Yes. I'm voting No." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yep, pretty much. Promises have now been made, and hats off to the YES for that. Scotland will be safer from Tory mentalism, RUK will have the left wing labour buffer that stops perpetual Tory rule and moderates them out a bit and we all sleep happy in our beds Apart from Salmond who I expect to stand down I love how you've confidently laid out what will happen with a No vote, but any suggestion of what will happen with Yes is met with utter derision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hasselhoff Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 That will depend on the will of Westminster and English MPs . They have a Veto http://www.businessf...devo-proposals/ Business for Scotland: "The No Campaign?s last ditch attempt to dress up mutton as lamb has failed spectacularly and the Scottish people have no choice but to doubt anything and everything the say right up to the yes vote on Thursday 18th." erm, bit rich coming from them! Business for Scotland has been exposed as a majority of 1 or 2 man businesses who employ a fraction of the people that the businesses behind the No letter employ. Big companies have a far better idea of how business truly works than some of these people. I could sign up for BusinessForScotland myself if I paid them ?90 and i'm not even a businessman! Unbelievable they get asked to comment as frequently as they do. Not going to link to the site, but there is a good page online which lists the make up of the public BfS members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartofmidlothian Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes the No vote will deliver devo max A No vote will deliver David Cameron?s bags back to Heathrow in record time, never to speak of or think about Scotland ever again. Your optimism is superhuman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I love how you've confidently laid out what will happen with a No vote, but any suggestion of what will happen with Yes is met with utter derision. Because YES are not in power and are working on fairy dust and hope? But No are actually in power, in agreement and can bring it into the legislature Yes can promise what the hell they like at the moment- they can prove nothing. No will have to stand by their word Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Because YES are not in power and are working on fairy dust and hope? But No are actually in power, in agreement and can bring it into the legislature Yes can promise what the hell they like at the moment- they can prove nothing. No will have to stand by their word I genuinely have no words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) Breaking. http://www.irishcentral.com/news/American-banks-to-relocate-to-Dublin-if-Britain-quits-European-Union.html Edit. Shit, a month old. Has that been done? Edited September 12, 2014 by Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Breaking. http://www.irishcent...pean-Union.html Edit. Shit, a month old. Has that been done? Surely its just moving a brass plaque ? Or is that just the No side? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) Because YES are not in power and are working on fairy dust and hope? But No are actually in power, in agreement and can bring it into the legislature Yes can promise what the hell they like at the moment- they can prove nothing. No will have to stand by their word The timeline offered by Gordon Brown suggests that these powers won't even get their 2nd reading of the bill until after the next election. So technically No aren't in power yet either. Edited September 12, 2014 by hughesie27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The timeline offered by Gordon Brown suggests that these powers won't even get their 2nd reading of the bill until after the next election. So technically No aren't in power yet either. But doctor jambo just guaranteed us devo max. So you must be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The timeline offered by Gordon Brown suggests that these powers won't even get their 2nd reading of the bill until after the next election. So technically No aren't in power yet either. To be clear- word has been given by all the main parties that this will happen. Should they back out of this promise I would expect a further referendum, and in that one I would vote Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I take it we are all just ignoring the fact that both the UK & Scottish government has a referendum consultation. Both consultations had a clear result of preference of a one question ballot. This 'those nasty WM parties wouldn't let us have a Devo option' is just re-writing history and encouraging the grievance mentality... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) Boss of Weatherspoons tells it as it is . Could it be he isn't strongly tied to the Tory party and Westminster ? http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/wetherspoons-boss-calls-for-level-tax-playing-field-9728461.html Edited September 12, 2014 by ToadKiller Dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 But doctor jambo just guaranteed us devo max. So you must be wrong. No are in power- Labour, Lib dem and Conservative . Labour need Scotland to stay relevant so cannot back track now. Conservative need our GDP to sustain the currency and borrowing ratings (and also to keep the RUK in Europe- the Tories cannot risk losing Scotland then facing an EU poll without the Scots in case they have to leave the EU) Who cares about the lib dems - they will do as told Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 To be clear- word has been given by all the main parties that this will happen. Should they back out of this promise I would expect a further referendum, and in that one I would vote Yes Admittedly I haven't even read up the proposals they are offering as I have no interest in devo max. My understanding though is that the 3 main parties have offered their own plan/idea on which powers to grant us and at what level. Will they then after a No vote need to get together to debate and agree the powers they will grant? That sounds like a really easy process. As questioned before, what happens if another party (UKIP) needs to be asked to join a coalition and they disagree with any number of the proposed powers? The bill gets chucked out the window and the negotiations start again? Meanwhile continue to be subjected to austerity measures that the people of Scotland didn't vote for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Boss of Weatherspoons tells it as it is . Could it be he isn't strongly tied to the Tory party and Westminster ? http://www.standard....ld-9728461.html Aye - he sure did Scotland can thrive and can also give me a lower vat rate on the food I serve - ie just as self serving as the NO side no such thing as unconditional support eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nookie Bear Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Admittedly I haven't even read up the proposals they are offering as I have no interest in devo max. My understanding though is that the 3 main parties have offered their own plan/idea on which powers to grant us and at what level. Will they then after a No vote need to get together to debate and agree the powers they will grant? That sounds like a really easy process. As questioned before, what happens if another party (UKIP) needs to be asked to join a coalition and they disagree with any number of the proposed powers? The bill gets chucked out the window and the negotiations start again? Meanwhile continue to be subjected to austerity measures that the people of Scotland didn't vote for? There will be austerity either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Admittedly I haven't even read up the proposals they are offering as I have no interest in devo max. My understanding though is that the 3 main parties have offered their own plan/idea on which powers to grant us and at what level. Will they then after a No vote need to get together to debate and agree the powers they will grant? That sounds like a really easy process. As questioned before, what happens if another party (UKIP) needs to be asked to join a coalition and they disagree with any number of the proposed powers? The bill gets chucked out the window and the negotiations start again? Meanwhile continue to be subjected to austerity measures that the people of Scotland didn't vote for? Austerity is happening regardless- Holyrood can already decide where a lot of it falls-no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusk_Till_Dawn Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Boss of Weatherspoons tells it as it is . Could it be he isn't strongly tied to the Tory party and Westminster ? http://www.standard....ld-9728461.html Ah. So everyone who supports yes has it bang on the money, everyone who supports no doesn't? Btw, anyone now coming out to criticise the owner of a major business for getting involved? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Leaf Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Who cares about the lib dems - they will do as told That pretty much describes Scotland's status in the Union, I would say. If anyone thinks that once Scotland has been slapped down in this referendum, the English MPs will be in a mood to grant Scotland additional powers, they've been reading different history books from the ones I've been reading. A Yes vote would give Scotland emormous bargaining power. After a No vote, Scotland will have zero negotiating power. I can't remember the name of the English leader who said, "We've caught Scotland, and we mean to hold her fast", but he knew what he was talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 There will be austerity either way. Well aware of that. But it won't consist of things like the bedroom tax. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambogaza Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Martin boon (ICM director) saying on radio 4 that next week's vote could be the 'pollster's waterloo'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.