Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[deesidejambo]

Anecdotal of course, but if I were to guess the outcome of this referendum from vocal support in the streets, and the people I've spoken to, it would be Yes by a landslide. The media is less heavily weighted toward Yes, but then a lot of that is coming from the English, who have no votes.

 

I've seen a few on here imply their experience is the opposite, and they've come across more No voters than Yes. Where are you guys based?

 

I'm in west Aberdeen. Its as posh as hell here all the way to Braemar, where it changes from posh to Royalist. Its a strong No territory I would argue - I have only seen one Yes poster in the windows. However when you go down to Torry, there are more Yes posters, but it seems nowhere near the amount you see in Edinburgh.

 

I think once the vote is done and the local results are shown, you will get strong Yes from the Central belt cities, especially the East-ends, Fife, and Lanark, with Nos tending to be the posh areas or rural retirement areas like Perth etc, which has higher proportion of elderly voters, who appear to be more inclined to No.

 

At th eend of the day the polls still seem to show significant No voters so they must be somewhere.

 

Just my thoughts on the demographic split - but would be interested to hear others.

[Nookie Bear]

How are they going to get into Scotland on the sly though? There's no ferry routes from mainland Europe into Scotland just now and they're not exactly going to be able to stowaway on a plane.

 

I don't really see the problem in border posts if absolutely required, obviously not ideal but if nothing it would create jobs.

 

To be completely honest this does read as another fear tactic being implemented by the no campaign to try and play on the whole anti-immigration nonsense that's going around just now.

 

I'm worried i'll end up with a bootload of Geordies hiding in my car after i've nipped across the border to buy luxury items such as Levi jeans and bananas.

[rossthejambo]

What happened to the Rosyth to Zebrugge route ?

 

Wasn't that scrapped years ago?

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

I'm in Edinburgh but I work in the financial sector, it's almost all No's here. Having said that, my mates that don't work with me are probably more weighted towards Yes, although it's a bit more even.

 

They say (and I'm not being inflammatory here) that the yes vote will be biggest among working class men.

[hmfc_liam06]

Streets around the villages in Fife are relatively split, I also work in Kinross where there have been an equal number of Yes/No campaigns.

 

That's said, in my office of 8, only 1 person is voting yes.

[Boris]

I'm in west Aberdeen. Its as posh as hell here all the way to Braemar, where it changes from posh to Royalist. Its a strong No territory I would argue - I have only seen one Yes poster in the windows. However when you go down to Torry, there are more Yes posters, but it seems nowhere near the amount you see in Edinburgh.

 

I think once the vote is done and the local results are shown, you will get strong Yes from the Central belt cities, especially the East-ends, Fife, and Lanark, with Nos tending to be the posh areas or rural retirement areas like Perth etc, which has higher proportion of elderly voters, who appear to be more inclined to No.

 

At th eend of the day the polls still seem to show significant No voters so they must be somewhere.

 

Just my thoughts on the demographic split - but would be interested to hear others.

 

I think that as well as demographic trends, the yes/no split can be co-related to personal income/wealth i.e. well off voting no, less well off voting yes.

 

There was a piece in the Guardian the other day on this and seemed to have some substance with some nice graphs and stuff. Can't find it though.

[BoJack Horseman]

I'm in west Aberdeen. Its as posh as hell here all the way to Braemar, where it changes from posh to Royalist. Its a strong No territory I would argue - I have only seen one Yes poster in the windows. However when you go down to Torry, there are more Yes posters, but it seems nowhere near the amount you see in Edinburgh.

 

I think once the vote is done and the local results are shown, you will get strong Yes from the Central belt cities, especially the East-ends, Fife, and Lanark, with Nos tending to be the posh areas or rural retirement areas like Perth etc, which has higher proportion of elderly voters, who appear to be more inclined to No.

 

At th eend of the day the polls still seem to show significant No voters so they must be somewhere.

 

Just my thoughts on the demographic split - but would be interested to hear others.

 

So we can assume that the intense support for Yes that you can see in and around Edinburgh isn't indicative of the general population? I have seen some data that suggest the central belt is where most of the Yes votes will come from, which would make sense I guess.

 

I struggle to understand the polling thing. I know it's often accurate but I just can't see how they can get an accurate representation of the country on such an unprecedented vote, particularly with the lower age limits and the higher registration count.

[BoJack Horseman]

They say (and I'm not being inflammatory here) that the yes vote will be biggest among working class men.

 

And their wummen I assume, as they're far too busy in the kitchen to make up their own minds.

[heartsfc_fan]

So how long after the doors close to vote on Thursday will we know the result?

[jambo1185]

I miss auntie annabel:

 

"When his political fate depended on us, he didn't think twice before seeking and taking our support. It is quite extraordinary that he's now doing a complete volte-face and now proclaims that the Tories are the worst things on the earth.

 

"To hear him now dismissing the Tories as the pariah of politics, as the name that dare not be spoken, is to me just utterly incredible and utterly hypocritical."

 

 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I miss auntie annabel:

 

"When his political fate depended on us, he didn't think twice before seeking and taking our support. It is quite extraordinary that he's now doing a complete volte-face and now proclaims that the Tories are the worst things on the earth.

 

"To hear him now dismissing the Tories as the pariah of politics, as the name that dare not be spoken, is to me just utterly incredible and utterly hypocritical."

Why did she step down, out of interest? She was the only leader of an opposition party who could actually ask Salmond an awkward question or two.

[rossthejambo]

They say (and I'm not being inflammatory here) that the yes vote will be biggest among working class men.

 

I don't see that as being an insult tbh so don't worry about it. My mates are a mixed group of men and women and I'd probably say there are more no's amongst the men than the women.

[Boris]

I miss auntie annabel:

 

"When his political fate depended on us, he didn't think twice before seeking and taking our support. It is quite extraordinary that he's now doing a complete volte-face and now proclaims that the Tories are the worst things on the earth.

 

"To hear him now dismissing the Tories as the pariah of politics, as the name that dare not be spoken, is to me just utterly incredible and utterly hypocritical."

 

That's politics Annabel! I'm sure she is equally scathing of Cameron for seeking Liberal support?

[Boris]

Why did she step down, out of interest? She was the only leader of an opposition party who could actually ask Salmond an awkward question or two.

 

She needed to fetch her husband's cereal.

[Ivan Drago]

 

 

I don't see that as being an insult tbh so don't worry about it. My mates are a mixed group of men and women and I'd probably say there are more no's amongst the men than the women.

 

It's interesting the demographics amongst individual people - the guys who I graduated from Uni with tend to be favouring a yes vote, whereas the guys I grew up with and went to school with are favouring no.

[Gabriel]

Watched Newsnight's Emily Maitlis report from Craigmillar (sans Kevlar) the other night, and she mentioned they had asked twenty people which way they would vote and nineteen had said 'Yes'. The only person to say he would vote 'No' was a Pole.

[Thunderstruck]

Anecdotal of course, but if I were to guess the outcome of this referendum from vocal support in the streets, and the people I've spoken to, it would be Yes by a landslide. The media is less heavily weighted toward Yes, but then a lot of that is coming from the English, who have no votes.

 

I've seen a few on here imply their experience is the opposite, and they've come across more No voters than Yes. Where are you guys based?

 

We are all guilty of confirmation bias where we look for information to support our views. We will also interpret information in a way that supports our views. I am guilty of this and I expect most on this thread are guilty to some extent.

 

It is also true that the more entrenched the view the more we bias information towards our own belief.

[deesidejambo]

So we can assume that the intense support for Yes that you can see in and around Edinburgh isn't indicative of the general population? I have seen some data that suggest the central belt is where most of the Yes votes will come from, which would make sense I guess.

 

I struggle to understand the polling thing. I know it's often accurate but I just can't see how they can get an accurate representation of the country on such an unprecedented vote, particularly with the lower age limits and the higher registration count.

 

Thats just what it seems to me - I was in Edinburgh last week and we were really surprised at the amount of Yes posters - even in Morningside ffs!!!

 

Up here in sheepland I cycle through Garthdee every day - not th emost sulubrious area in Aberdeen but there is not a single Yes (or No) poster in any windows.

 

Maybe the party activists are more focussed on central belt - after all that where the population is focussed. Or maybe I need to get out more.

 

As to the youths - the High schools here had straw polls about 4 months ago - the posh ones - Cults/Harlaw/Grammar/Banchory were all strong Nos, and (I am told) Torry/Northfield/St Machar, were all strong Yes.

 

This to me indicated the strong split in demographic, i.e. its not 52-48 everywhere. Its 90-10 or 10-90 depending on where you are or how much you earn. Maybe we can partition the country like Ireland! Just kidding before anyone responds.

[jambo1185]

 

Why did she step down, out of interest? She was the only leader of an opposition party who could actually ask Salmond an awkward question or two.

 

She wanted to hand over to someone younger to try to refresh the party. She was pretty instrumental in Davidson getting in over Fraser.

 

Davidson has done very well this campaign actually. Not enough to swing votes her way but I think in getting people to at least listen to what she has ro say rather than automatically dismissing it because she's a Tory. Small steps for them up here.

Edited September 12, 2014 by jambo1185

[TheMaganator]

Anecdotal of course, but if I were to guess the outcome of this referendum from vocal support in the streets, and the people I've spoken to, it would be Yes by a landslide. The media is less heavily weighted toward Yes, but then a lot of that is coming from the English, who have no votes.

 

I've seen a few on here imply their experience is the opposite, and they've come across more No voters than Yes. Where are you guys based?

It's called the silent majority for a reason

 

I live in Stockbridge & work in the city centre. I could count the Yes voters I know on my hands.

 

95% of my Facebook friends (from school & Uni) are voting No and are now quite vocal about it.

 

It's been a Yes strategy to make noise. They want to make undecided & soft voters feel like they are in the majority & they should vote for them without fear.

 

Everyone I know in business & professions is against it.

[3fingersreid]

Anecdotal of course, but if I were to guess the outcome of this referendum from vocal support in the streets, and the people I've spoken to, it would be Yes by a landslide. The media is less heavily weighted toward Yes, but then a lot of that is coming from the English, who have no votes.

 

I've seen a few on here imply their experience is the opposite, and they've come across more No voters than Yes. Where are you guys based?

That's not how I've been hearing it when it's been discussed in the cab I'd say about 90% have been no voters , just for the record that's in Edinburgh and the lothians

[Optimus Prime]

I have it on extremely good authority that a trade union in a northern english city is busing some of their staff up to Falkirk on Thursday to help support the No campaign.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

She needed to fetch her husband's cereal.

[BoJack Horseman]

We are all guilty of confirmation bias where we look for information to support our views. We will also interpret information in a way that supports our views. I am guilty of this and I expect most on this thread are guilty to some extent.

 

It is also true that the more entrenched the view the more we bias information towards our own belief.

 

I don't think this is the case here. I don't have a bias, just an opinion. My commute takes me through Leith, which is staunch Yes, and up through the bridges and to the south side, which seems to be more vocal for Yes than no. For every 20 Yes stickers in a window, I see 1 No.

[jambo1185]

I have it on extremely good authority that a trade union in a northern english city is busing some of their staff up to Falkirk on Thursday to help support the No campaign.

 

Is there something wrong with that? Are you only allowed to take part in the campaigning if you have a vote? Better tell that guy who runs wings to delete his blog of thats the case.

 

It's maybe an unfair generalisation but it does seem that as others have said independence is most supported among working class males

Edited September 12, 2014 by jambo1185

[OmiyaHearts]

It's interesting the demographics amongst individual people - the guys who I graduated from Uni with tend to be favouring a yes vote, whereas the guys I grew up with and went to school with are favouring no.

I hardly know any No voters. Everyone in my office is now Yes and all my friends are Yes - Around half my office were No's six months ago (including me).

 

It seems to me the polls don't reflect what I see in work, in the pub and on the street. It feels like Yes is everywhere in Glasgow - I've hardly even seen No's campaigning.

 

My old man is a bus driver and he says the oldies are worried about losing their bus passes if we achieve independence so are all leaning towards No.

[3fingersreid]

 

 

I don't think this is the case here. I don't have a bias, just an opinion. My commute takes me through Leith, which is staunch Yes, and up through the bridges and to the south side, which seems to be more vocal for Yes than no. For every 20 Yes stickers in a window, I see 1 No.

Just because you see more yes stickers doesn't mean there's no NO votes there

[BoJack Horseman]

It's called the silent majority for a reason

 

I live in Stockbridge & work in the city centre. I could count the Yes voters I know on my hands.

 

95% of my Facebook friends (from school & Uni) are voting No and are now quite vocal about it.

 

It's been a Yes strategy to make noise. They want to make undecided & soft voters feel like they are in the majority & they should vote for them without fear.

 

Everyone I know in business & professions is against it.

 

Who's calling it that? I'm of the opinion that Yes is the silent majority. Anecdotal again.

 

I work in the city centre and live in Trinity, and I'm the polar opposite. Facebook is majority Yes, with a few No's. Not as much as 95%, maybe 75/25.

 

I have it on extremely good authority that a trade union in a northern english city is busing some of their staff up to Falkirk on Thursday to help support the No campaign.

 

I thought the North of England want independence from London as well? They just gutted we're about to scarper and they can't?

[jambo1185]

Is there anyone voting yes who does not hace a poster/sticker/badge etc... or who isnt going full out on their social media?

 

Round here it seems everyone who isnt shouting about voting yes is a no voter, but isn't publicising it.

 

Again just anecdotal but I don't think much can be read into a lack of no thanks posters in windows

Edited September 12, 2014 by jambo1185

[Boris]

Everyone I know in business & professions is against it.

 

Which would confirm my view that this is as much about class as it is any sense of nationalism.

[BoJack Horseman]

Just because you see more yes stickers doesn't mean there's no NO votes there

 

I'm well aware. That doesn't detract from the fact that if you're from outside Scotland and find yourself in Edinburgh, you'll probably come to the conclusion that the country is all for Independence, based on the visual evidence alone.

[djf]

Normally the 'silent majority' is used to support antiquated right wing views on immigration shortly before concerned parties take a hammering through an anonymous ballot.

 

Whether it will apply in the referendum remains to be seen but I don't think there's any historic proof of it being a proven factor in Scotland.

[Boris]

Is there anyone voting yes who does not hace a poster/sticker/badge etc...?

 

Round here it seems everyone who isnt shouting about voting yes is a no voter, but isn't publicising it.

 

Me, for one. I'll be voting Yes but don't have anything advertising the fact.

[djf]

Is there anyone voting yes who does not hace a poster/sticker/badge etc... or who isnt going full out on their social media?

 

 

 

Polls are putting Yes support at anything from 40-51% so what do you think?

[BoJack Horseman]

Is there anyone voting yes who does not hace a poster/sticker/badge etc... or who isnt going full out on their social media?

 

Round here it seems everyone who isnt shouting about voting yes is a no voter, but isn't publicising it.

 

Again just anecdotal but I don't think much can be read into a lack of no thanks posters in windows

 

I don't have any literature that identifies me as a Yes voter, and won't talk about it unless asked. I'm voting Yes by default, none of the campaigning has influenced, or will influence, my decision. I can see a lot of people like me. Not really paying attention to the campaign, but will turn up on Thursday to have their say.

[Gabriel]

Normally the 'silent majority' is used to support antiquated right wing views on immigration shortly before concerned parties take a hammering through an anonymous ballot.

 

Whether it will apply in the referendum remains to be seen but I don't think there's any historic proof of it being a proven factor in Scotland.

 

Not just immigration, buddy. Trust me!

 

[Boris]

Is there anyone voting yes who does not hace a poster/sticker/badge etc... or who isnt going full out on their social media?

 

 

I see you have edited your question.

 

Guilty re the social media, in as much as forwarding and sharing articles/clips etc that I find interesting and make a point.

[3fingersreid]

 

 

I'm well aware. That doesn't detract from the fact that if you're from outside Scotland and find yourself in Edinburgh, you'll probably come to the conclusion that the country is all for Independence, based on the visual evidence alone.

So if you walk past a block of flats that has say 10 flats front windows to the street and 1 or 2 have a yes sticker it means that you'd read it as the majority ? I'd be inclined to go the other way on that

[OmiyaHearts]

I don't have any posters or badges. The amount of Yes posters in the windows of Glasgow homes is amazing.

 

Like BoJack, I take no interest in the campaigns. I've not paid attention to the televised debates or even watched anything political on TV.

Edited September 12, 2014 by donaldmclachlan

[jambo1185]

 

 

Polls are putting Yes support at anything from 40-51% so what do you think?

 

No idea that's why I was asking. I haven't met a yet voter who wasn't vocal about it in my circles so was asking what others experiences were. It wasn't a dig.

[rossthejambo]

Me, for one. I'll be voting Yes but don't have anything advertising the fact.

 

Snap, not worth the hassle publicly airing your voting intentions and I don't really believe in doing that anyway.

[Pete Seeger]

I'd say Stirling and the Trossachs maybe leans slightly more to no than yes. Mainly due to the elderly buying into the 'security' of the Union. Those of us that'll be alive past next the next world cup seem to be 50/50 in my experience. 6 Months ago i'd have said it would be a landslide to no so I think the next few days could have a real impact on the outcome. There's still an awful lot of people that could be persuaded either way.

[mrmarkus1981]

I don't have any literature that identifies me as a Yes voter, and won't talk about it unless asked. I'm voting Yes by default, none of the campaigning has influenced, or will influence, my decision. I can see a lot of people like me. Not really paying attention to the campaign, but will turn up on Thursday to have their say.

 

This is also where i'm at.

[jambo1185]

 

 

I see you have edited your question.

 

Guilty re the social media, in as much as forwarding and sharing articles/clips etc that I find interesting and make a point.

 

Yeah sorry I was mainly meaning the little 'yes' stamps people put ob their profile photos and thought that wasn't clear when I read it back just talking about posters etc...

 

[Gabriel]

One thing that has surprised me is the lack of presence, from either side, in or around suburban shopping centres/supermarkets. Given that these areas are where many people regularly go, I thought there would be more visual representation near them. Is campaigning prohibited in their vicinity?

[Boris]

Yeah sorry I was mainly meaning the little 'yes' stamps people put ob their profile photos and thought that wasn't clear when I read it back just talking about posters etc...

 

Oh, I've not done one of those. If I did, I'd be tempted for the Green Yes one, but I don't really want to sully my profile pic with green!

[BoJack Horseman]

Folk sticking Yes or No badges on their profile pictures is absolutely chronic chat.

[djf]

 

 

No idea that's why I was asking. I haven't met a yet voter who wasn't vocal about it in my circles so was asking what others experiences were. It wasn't a dig.

 

My response wasn't intended as a dig either so apologies if that's how it came across. The vast majority of yes and no voters will likely have had limited public displays of their views. These are the people who will get on with it whatever position we wake up to next Friday.

[jambo1185]

 

 

My response wasn't intended as a dig either so apologies if that's how it came across. The vast majority of yes and no voters will likely have had limited public displays of their views. These are the people who will get on with it whatever position we wake up to next Friday.

 

Totally agree with your final sentence

[Boris]

My response wasn't intended as a dig either so apologies if that's how it came across. The vast majority of yes and no voters will likely have had limited public displays of their views. These are the people who will get on with it whatever position we wake up to next Friday.

 

Hopefully the vast majority!