doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Well aware of that. But it won't consist of things like the bedroom tax. The bedroom tax is a vote winner- even in Scotland The idea of famiies being rammed into tiny inadequate properties whilst some have spare rooms (and lets face it most paying mortgages do not have spare rooms) is farcical. Whilst there is a shortage of social housing you need to get people to move into appropriate accomodation to meet their needs (albeit it has been handled in a kack handed way) And no- there is no money to build more social housing. Not even if we spend the trident money on that as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I presume that if YouGov is unreliable, then its many polls showing a No lead must also be as unreliable as its one poll showing a No lead. Oops. That second No should read Yes. I presume that if YouGov is unreliable, then its many polls showing a No lead must also be as unreliable as its one poll showing a Yes lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusk_Till_Dawn Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Interesting. ? Born in Scotland is neck and neck, born anywhere else favours no but the yes vote wins? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 To be clear- word has been given by all the main parties that this will happen. Should they back out of this promise I would expect a further referendum, and in that one I would vote Yes I was under the impression that 'The Powers' were merely promises, promises that have been likened to manifesto pledges by Prescott and Hague. In the Commons on Wednesday, Hague, to paraphrase, carefully stated that because they were not being offered by the Government per se, but by the mainstream parties, there was no guarantee that they would be implemented by the Government. Moreover, even with virtually a clear diary and no other legislation to discuss, this Parliament is exceedingly unlikely to get anything satisfactory through. Does anyone really believe there will be any appetite to rush constitutional legislation? This is the UK! I can envisage the Whitehall mandarins now, looking at their watches over lunch and deciding on another glass of port. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Interesting. Or not- this is about people living in Scotland deciding an important matter Place of birth is totally irrelevant - and so it should be you live here you have a vote Be you English, french, Polish or whatever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 ? Born in Scotland is neck and neck, born anywhere else favours no but the yes vote wins? never noticed that- it makes absolutely no sense, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do you think there was a possibility that the polling companies realised that their tried and tested methodologies did not work with the dynamics of this electorate and perhaps changed their methodology? Is it possible that this was a contributing factor in the wild swing in recent polls? It's it possible that the polls produced before last Saturday were wildly inaccurate? No, but that doesn't mean that I think earlier polls were bang on the cash either. The electorate is no different to any other electorate. The polling companies always refine what they do "in the field" to try to improve quality. YouGov adjusted their weightings and got a big swing to Yes. TNS didn't adjust their weightings and got a big swing to Yes. Regardless of any methodological tweaking, the position is that voters out there have changed their minds, and that is being reflected in the opinion polls. All eight polls produced since the second debate have shown similar results. All of them show that the Yes and No percentages are less than the margin of error away from 50%. That's a statistical dead heat, and so the referendum result is too close to call. Intriguing, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leginten Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I take it we are all just ignoring the fact that both the UK & Scottish government has a referendum consultation. Both consultations had a clear result of preference of a one question ballot. This 'those nasty WM parties wouldn't let us have a Devo option' is just re-writing history and encouraging the grievance mentality... There have been strong suggestions this week that the man who strongly advised Cameron via Miliband that there should be no third option on the ballot paper was none other than ... Gordon "Timetable" Brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 never noticed that- it makes absolutely no sense, Does it not? People born in Scotland obviously outnumber those who weren't. It's pretty simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 There have been strong suggestions this week that the man who strongly advised Cameron via Miliband that there should be no third option on the ballot paper was none other than ... Gordon "Timetable" Brown. Fine. That doesn't change the outcome of either government's consultation or the fact that no party (including the SNP) had a Devo option in their manifesto - therefore had no mandate to offer more powers via Devo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 No, but that doesn't mean that I think earlier polls were bang on the cash either. The electorate is no different to any other electorate. The polling companies always refine what they do "in the field" to try to improve quality. YouGov adjusted their weightings and got a big swing to Yes. TNS didn't adjust their weightings and got a big swing to Yes. Regardless of any methodological tweaking, the position is that voters out there have changed their minds, and that is being reflected in the opinion polls. All eight polls produced since the second debate have shown similar results. All of them show that the Yes and No percentages are less than the margin of error away from 50%. That's a statistical dead heat, and so the referendum result is too close to call. Intriguing, isn't it? You and your well-considered objectivity and neutral reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Interesting. Who made this graphic? Weird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Who made this graphic? Weird I plucked it from the daily mail. It is indeed weird. Considering their leading question, and then showing that no, even with 2/3 of them voting no, the English living in Scotland can't block a Yes vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Or not- this is about people living in Scotland deciding an important matter Place of birth is totally irrelevant - and so it should be you live here you have a vote Be you English, french, Polish or whatever Don't think anybody is suggesting otherwise either. It is simply pointing out that those who are English but living here have a pretty significant impact (if the graphic is accurate). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leginten Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Fine. That doesn't change the outcome of either government's consultation or the fact that no party (including the SNP) had a Devo option in their manifesto - therefore had no mandate to offer more powers via Devo. Wasn't it the case that the Electoral Commission had a good look at the idea of a third option and vetoed it anyway? I can't quite remember the details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMA MAROON Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The graph says born in rest of UK but the header is having a go at the English. I also doubt that 84% of the foreigners living here will vote. I take it the figures are percentages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Absolutley correct - YouGov is unreliable, regardless of its polls outcome, for the explicit reasons I stated. "Explicit" doesn't mean "correct". It means "obvious". You forgot to name the statistical analysts who have declared YouGov to be unreliable. Links would be good as well. I really don't see what else I can say. Your comments remind me of someone I know who believes that if you toss a coin and get heads 5 times in a row, the 6th toss is more likely to be tails than heads. Try as we might, we can't get him to accept that the 6th toss is equally likely to be heads or tails - even though intuitively it's blindingly obvious the probability of a coin toss can't be anything else. You're assuming that the polls are all dependent on each other, but like the coin tosses they are all separate and independent events. The one thing on which we can agree, however, is that opinion polls are not the real thing. We have a fascinating few days ahead before the real event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The graph says born in rest of UK but the header is having a go at the English. I also doubt that 84% of the foreigners living here will vote. I take it the figures are percentages. It's only 'having a go at the English' if you interpret it that way. If read in the context of the Daily Mail story, those same people are akin to resistance fighters behind the lines and saving the UK. Context is everything. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753400/Revealed-How-half-million-English-voters-living-Scotland-set-block-independence.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 It's actually just a nonsense graphic by the looks of things. Whoever wrote the accompanying article is working from the total being the other way round. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753400/Revealed-How-half-million-English-voters-living-Scotland-set-block-independence.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Martin boon (ICM director) saying on radio 4 that next week's vote could be the 'pollster's waterloo'. Notwithstanding my posts on the subject in support of market research and polling methods this is potentially true. If the closing batch of polls show Yes in or around 48, then the pollsters can claim a technical win if Yes polls anywhere between 45 and 51 on the day. But if there's a big win for either side then they'll all be very seriously wrong. Any once-off ballot is a bit if a challenge for pollsters compared to general elections. I had exchanges of emails with two of the pollsters earlier in the campaign. Both used different weighting systems that produced different results - and yet both were able to stand over the logic of how they did things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westbow Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Was told that all the NT ads the farmers had been putting in the fields down in the borders have been messed with. Lot of toys getting thrown out the pram. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderstruck Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I had heard that around 20% of those registered to vote in Scotland consider themselves "English". I think it was based on 2011 census. By comparison, Europeans are around 2%. See- http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files2/stats/electoral-stats/2014-march/14electoral-stats-tab1.xls The link above shows that the number (published elsewhere) voting will be about 4% above what it would have been in March (mostly the kids <18). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Notwithstanding my posts on the subject in support of market research and polling methods this is potentially true. If the closing batch of polls show Yes in or around 48, then the pollsters can claim a technical win if Yes polls anywhere between 45 and 51 on the day. But if there's a big win for either side then they'll all be very seriously wrong. Any once-off ballot is a bit if a challenge for pollsters compared to general elections. I had exchanges of emails with two of the pollsters earlier in the campaign. Both used different weighting systems that produced different results - and yet both were able to stand over the logic of how they did things. Is it not a bit misleading to then tout these figures as almost factual, as many people seem to be treating them? Why were politicians panicking on Sunday because for one day a few polls that have a margin of error to the point that it's been a dead heat for a while, showed a swing in favour of Yes? Using the caveats the pollsters themselves imposed, you could still read Sundays results as 50/50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamboX2 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I see Brown is threatening Salmond by saying he may stand for Holyrood in 2016. Can only be good to have such minds in Holyrood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do you have to be British born to be PM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do you have to be British born to be PM? Andrew Bonar Law was born in Canada. Or what is now Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westbow Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do you have to be British born to be PM? That's the kind of thing you would have in a constitution. Unless there is a law I dunno. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Draper Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 In the last couple of days, I've had 1) my Mum, a lifelong Tory voter and admirer of Margaret Thatcher ( ), and 2) a guy I went to Boroughmuir with who's pretty much the biggest unionist I know, both tell me that they're leaning towards voting Yes. Those were both fall-off-the-seat moments. Obviously, they're just two people in a cast of millions. And, personally speaking, I still suspect that - unfortunately - No will sneak this by a bawhair. But there is certainly something...afoot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamboX2 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do you have to be British born to be PM? Your only qualification is to be a MP. And there is only a requirement if citizenship to be a MP as per ROPA 1983. So no. You merely need to be a citizen if the UK. Natural born or not don't matter. Andrew Bonar-Law is a good example of that. Canadian born. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Your only qualification is to be a MP. And there is only a requirement if citizenship to be a MP as per ROPA 1983. So no. You merely need to be a citizen if the UK. Natural born or not don't matter. Andrew Bonar-Law is a good example of that. Canadian born. Do you even need to be an MP? Douglas-Home was still in the Lords when he became prime minister, albeit he quickly found a seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes needs to see more of Darli g on our screens to shift some more votes its way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Draper Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Why do certain No voters keep havering on about Braveheart or Bannockburn? It seems like, rather ironically, they're the only ones that ever bring this nonsense up now. I haven't once seen either of these things used as justification for governing our own country during this campaign. It's like No-ers are actually secretly really irritated that Yes-ers haven't adhered to the hairy, tattooed, saltire-wielding barbarian stereotypes they have in their minds... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig_ Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Can people from both sides give it a rest with their superiority crap. You know, the 'look what supporters of the other side have done now' kind of thing. Smacks of the sort of bollocks OF supporters come out with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbodog Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 As most yes supporters seem to be at the very least disappointed by the bbc coverage of the referendum. What do No supporters feel of the bbc coverage? Do you agree with the perceived bias towards No and are you comfortable with it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Why do certain No voters keep havering on about Braveheart or Bannockburn? It seems like, rather ironically, they're the only ones that ever bring this nonsense up now. I haven't once seen either of these things used as justification for governing our own country during this campaign. It's like No-ers are actually secretly really irritated that Yes-ers haven't adhered to the hairy, tattooed, saltire-wielding barbarian stereotypes they have in their minds... Pretty much answered it yourself. They no doubt sat down before this all started with a load of insults and clich?s they could use to deride their opponents with, and haven't changed it up since they realised they don't work. Same with the land of milk and honey crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) Jeezo Deutsche Bank have gone all in: ?A Yes vote would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill?s decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US." Guardian come out for No http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/12/guardian-view-scottish-independence Edited September 12, 2014 by jambo1185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Draper Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Pretty much answered it yourself. They no doubt sat down before this all started with a load of insults and clich?s they could use to deride their opponents with, and haven't changed it up since they realised they don't work. Same with the land of milk and honey crap. Indeed. "Oh and I suppose this'll be labelled as scaremongering too" appears to be the latest one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) Also, just in case anyone was in any doubt, Yes officials today confirmed that "The current Scottish Government?s proposals for an independent Scotland are set out in great detail in the white paper ? including the job-creating powers Scotland so badly needs ? and that is what people are voting for.? So a yes vote is, in the view of the Yes campaign, a vote on the SNPs white paper. Does Patrick Harvie know his alternative vision is not going to be considered at all during any separation negotiations? Not everything in the white paper can be easily changed if a different government wins the first elections following independence. Edited September 12, 2014 by jambo1185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamboGraham Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Is it not a bit misleading to then tout these figures as almost factual, as many people seem to be treating them? Why were politicians panicking on Sunday because for one day a few polls that have a margin of error to the point that it's been a dead heat for a while, showed a swing in favour of Yes? Using the caveats the pollsters themselves imposed, you could still read Sundays results as 50/50. 100% agree, I detest opinion polls as not only do they sample opinion, they also drive it. They should be banned inside official campaign periods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 If you really think the big 3 parties would not give us the increased powers now after a No vote, you're as paranoid as Wings and his rats.... Yes voters would be angry at the vote and angry full stop. No voters would be pleased with the vote and angry if powers option is removed Result would be the entire country of Scotland being angry at WM - would not be worth their hassle doing that. Giving us the power isn't the problem. It's are they prepared to give us our income back to allow us to stand still let alone prosper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yes needs to see more of Darli g on our screens to shift some more votes its way. House of Lords expenses and conglomerate directorships will see Darling ok in his post Scotland life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Jeezo Deutsche Bank have gone all in: ?A Yes vote would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill?s decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US." Guardian come out for No http://www.theguardi...sh-independence No point asking Deutsche Bank if they'll be moving their Scottish operations. https://www.db.com/en/media/list_of_all_deutsche_bank_ag_branches_and_selected_subsidiaries_covered_by_certification.pdf Maybe they'll open one if there is a 'Yes' vote. As for the newspapers, I would anticipate all of the UK papers to come out against 'Yes'. That would be consistent with their stance so far, and in the likelihood of a 'Yes' vote, they would presumably lose their readership in Scotland over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 That's a good piece from The Guardian and if there really was an appetite for the kind of federalism they discuss my decision would be a lot, lot harder than it currently is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderstruck Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Also, just in case anyone was in any doubt, Yes officials today confirmed that "The current Scottish Government?s proposals for an independent Scotland are set out in great detail in the white paper ? including the job-creating powers Scotland so badly needs ? and that is what people are voting for.? So a yes vote is, in the view of the Yes campaign, a vote on the SNPs white paper. Does Patrick Harvie know his alternative vision is not going to be considered at all during any separation negotiations? Not everything in the white paper can be easily changed if a different government wins the first elections following independence. The a White Paper is a wish list. A series of assertions and demands with no substance whatsoever. No timeline, no costing, no identification of risk, no realism and no credence. If that was to be the basis for a way ahead, the churches would be busy as only God could help us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrJambo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 That pretty much describes Scotland's status in the Union, I would say. If anyone thinks that once Scotland has been slapped down in this referendum, the English MPs will be in a mood to grant Scotland additional powers, they've been reading different history books from the ones I've been reading. A Yes vote would give Scotland emormous bargaining power. After a No vote, Scotland will have zero negotiating power. I can't remember the name of the English leader who said, "We've caught Scotland, and we mean to hold her fast", but he knew what he was talking about. Speaker of the then English House of Commons..... http://punditwire.com/2014/09/08/we-have-catchd-scotland/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Leaf Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Speaker of the then English House of Commons..... http://punditwire.co...atchd-scotland/ Thanks for providing the link. I got the quote from memory nearly right. Everyone who is voting next week should read the article that you've linked. I'm all in favour in looking to the future, not the past, but it's possible to do both, and understanding how and why Scotland lost its independence in the first place should be understood. Some people, and I'm one of them, believe that righting a historical wrong should be one of the factors in deciding how to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RosscoC Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Robert Peston says Treasury briefed RBS move before board decision. http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29185319 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Here was what Asda was saying before the cosy chat with Dave . Wonder what promises were made . http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/4433722 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoda Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Jeezo Deutsche Bank have gone all in: ?A Yes vote would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill?s decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US." Guardian come out for No http://www.theguardi...sh-independence Good old Germans, telling it like it is. Just sitting here sipping another Krombacher.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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