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Scottish independence and devolution superthread


Happy Hearts

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They will and so they should. As recently as 25 years ago folk who campaigned for independence were seen as fringe crackpots. That we are now seven days away from a razor thin referendum vote is extraordinary. Given the demographics involved, whatever the result next week is just another step towards inevitable constitutional change.

 

I really hope it's a no this time so the next time we actually get an independence campaign for true independence. Separate Central Bank, our own currency, no connection at all to the UK, maybe even the Queen (although not sure if that's possible) then I would vote yes for independence and take a chance.

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I'm guessing here, but how are these polling companies reaching the poorest, who are looking likely to turn out more than any other election, or 16-17 year olds ?

 

They do think about this stuff, and at the risk of sounding facetious they are good at it and paid well to do it. They have to worry about this for all elections, and try to figure out who will vote, who won't, who their polling methods under-represent and over-represent, and then adjust for that. They are better at it for repeat elections than for once-offs, as I mentioned in previous posts, so of course they might get it wrong for this referendum. But that is a different issue to the one that is commonly raised about how can small opinion poll samples be representative of the overall population. They can and they are once they're done properly.

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Not strictly on-topic but this is a link (with a link to a longer document) that explains how Gallup carry out their polls. Could Ulysses or any suitable person confirm if the same method is followed in the UK?

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/101872/how-does-gallup-polling-work.aspx

Edited by Gorgiewave
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Although the YouGov poll had every age demographic in favour of Yes other than the 60+...I reckon the 16-17 will be considerably more geared towards No.

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I have to disagree (slightly). John Curtice, the pre-eminent psephologist in the country spoke on this for over an hour last Tuesday. His view was that the underlying trend has only narrowed marginally - based on unpicking the results and reanalysing with weighting to iron out inconsistencies in questions. This was reinforced by other, independent research on larger groups.

 

It also seems as if some polls had attempted correction to bring themselves into the pack and might have over-corrected.

 

My Yes-inclined colleague was quite subdued at the end as it seemed like last weekend's poll was a false dawn.

 

The poll since then has reinforced the analysis and it looks like the next will follow suit.

 

I love how every "story" you've told on this thread always ends with a Yes friend/colleague/stranger having some kind of epiphany or getting shown up.

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Chaka Demus & pliers

Although the YouGov poll had every age demographic in favour of Yes other than the 60+...I reckon the 16-17 will be considerably more geared towards No.

 

Why?

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Although the YouGov poll had every age demographic in favour of Yes other than the 60+...I reckon the 16-17 will be considerably more geared towards No.

 

The latest one has all age groups bar 25-39 in favour of no.

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Surely you watched Salmond hand Nick Robinson his Arse. Unless it was on the BBC news at 10, of course.

Yeah - he said where they carry out activity. Just wonder what amazon do to avoid paying tax here

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Why?

Based on my chats with that age group and fact that since most first time voters tend to go with their parents they will follow suit.

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The latest one has all age groups bar 25-39 in favour of no.

I don't doubt that. But for such a massive change since the weekend I guess it goes to show how unpredictable and fluid polls can be.

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So Salmond hasn't factored in the reserves required to use the Panama Pound?

 

Brilliant.

 

He will have factored it in but there is not a chance he will tell you that they will need to build the reserve from Revenue over a very short time.

 

That can only be achieved through savings or tax hikes - Austerity Max which, if NHS remains a Sacred Cow, means some swingeing cuts elsewhere.

 

If it is Yes with no CU, strap in for a bumpy ride.

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I don't doubt that. But for such a massive change since the weekend I guess it goes to show how unpredictable and fluid polls can be.

 

Or that the poll at the weekend was out of step.

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Just watched BBC1 10 O'Clock News. Jeez - I can see why some 'yes' people are complaining of BBC bias - especially that Nick Robinson.

I've watched the BBC all day, no have successfully scared the remaining few into a no vote. They've twisted every bit of information they have received. It's a disgrace to the yes voters that pay a TV licence. This campaign will be lost because of the media.

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I love how every "story" you've told on this thread always ends with a Yes friend/colleague/stranger having some kind of epiphany or getting shown up.

 

Really! I think you may be confusing me with someone else.

 

And, when did being slightly downbeat become a Damascene Conversion?

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BBC bias shouldn't really surprise anyone. They stand to lose about 10% of their total licence fee income!

But they wouldn't have to put their name on River City anymore - swings and roundabouts for them

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The People's Chimp

Darling is terrible. Why on earth BT chose him is beyond most people.

 

BTW Did Yes pack a load of supporters into Salmond's press conference? Just bizarre. The applause from "journalists" so stage managed. All of this rubbish is just playing to the gallery though, I can't see it getting through to anyone who is undecided or convincing a change from a No position. It's gone down well on twitter with wings etc for 'filleting' Nick Robinson but doesn't appear to have been as well received by the international media.

 

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5804192?utm_hp_ref=tw

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Do any Yes supporters think there is any thing good about the union?

 

I wouldn't be averse to shared defence if rUK was willing to cut back the illegal crusades and Trident!

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Geoff Kilpatrick

 

 

I wouldn't be averse to shared defence if rUK was willing to cut back the illegal crusades and Trident!

You want to share economic policy, apparently.

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Or that the poll at the weekend was out of step.

 

But it isn't actually out of step. The last seven polls have all shown results that are effectively the same as each other within a 3% error margin. It is at one end of a number line, but the reality is that all seven polls are showing a statistical dead heat.

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You want to share economic policy, apparently.

 

And a Joint Energy Market for the "The British Islands". I'm sure that raised a few eyebrows with our neighbours.

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The People's Chimp

 

 

 

I wouldn't be averse to shared defence if rUK was willing to cut back the illegal crusades and Trident!

 

So, currency union, Bank of England, shared defence and obviously economic policy (give or take a little wiggle room).

 

What kind, of , er Indy is that? Sounds like you quite fancy that devolution lark.

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And a Joint Energy Market for the "The British Islands". I'm sure that raised a few eyebrows with our neighbours.

 

It wouldn't raise too many eyebrows here or in NI, though I have no idea what people on the other islands might think. We already have an energy policy covering both jurisdictions, a single electricity wholesale market, and gas and electricity links between the islands, and there is regular co-operation between Irish energy agencies and their UK counterparts. Those measures have reduced energy prices for Irish businesses and consumers, so the Irish Government wouldn't be averse to continuing and extending them, at least as far as I can tell.

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Some administrative statistics, just to give you a sense of the increased level of interest in this topic.

 

Over a period of 23 and a fraction months, this thread has averaged a bit under 1,000 posts per month.

 

The latest 1,000 posts on the thread were posted in a period of 40 hours between 8 am on Wednesday and a quarter of an hour ago at midnight.

 

Over the last 2 days, 27% of all the posts made on JKB were made on this thread.

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It wouldn't raise too many eyebrows here or in NI, though I have no idea what people on the other islands might think. We already have an energy policy covering both jurisdictions, a single electricity wholesale market, and gas and electricity links between the islands, and there is regular co-operation between Irish energy agencies and their UK counterparts. Those measures have reduced energy prices for Irish businesses and consumers, so the Irish Government wouldn't be averse to continuing and extending them, at least as far as I can tell.

 

Given the difficulty and capacity of undersea interconnectors, it is really aimed at the English and Welsh consumers whose Renewable Surcharges keep the windmills turning in Scotland. There is no way that consumers in the 2.5m Scottish homes and 220k business premises could hope to be able to afford to support the currently installed wind generators.

 

Without subsidy, these would become kinetic sculpture as has happened in parts of the US.

 

A Joint Market would also allow a neat sidestep of the lack of any plans to replace the elderly coal and nuclear stations.

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... have a look and see what we have and how much we have improved our lot in our own lifetimes.

 

That's a terrible argument. The improvement in loving standards is a function of being in the Western world, not being in the UK, IMO.

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That's a terrible argument. The improvement in loving standards is a function of being in the Western world, not being in the UK, IMO.

 

So being in the UK hasn't helped in the slightest?

 

Is the UK all hindrance? Are we being bled dry?

 

The facts are, despite what Alex and wee Nic tell us, that we are net beneficiaries when the Public Settlement figures are added to the less obvious and separate subsidies including the Network Rail

Investments (highest per track mile in UK including Crossrail) or the renewable subsidies I mentioned in an earlier post. The greater than average Defence spend (exc Trident) in Scotland and the Naval a Construction programme are all investments from UK Govt that don't show up in the figures quoted by at he Yes side. Add all that together and you have a significant black hole from day 1 that we will have to fill with cuts or higher taxes.

 

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"An unprecedented 789,024 requests for postal ballots may result in people being left without the vote, it was claimed yesterday."

 

How exactly ?

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Given the difficulty and capacity of undersea interconnectors, it is really aimed at the English and Welsh consumers whose Renewable Surcharges keep the windmills turning in Scotland. There is no way that consumers in the 2.5m Scottish homes and 220k business premises could hope to be able to afford to support the currently installed wind generators.

 

Without subsidy, these would become kinetic sculpture as has happened in parts of the US.

 

A Joint Market would also allow a neat sidestep of the lack of any plans to replace the elderly coal and nuclear stations.

 

I was responding to your point relating to your assumptions about the political response on this side of the Irish Sea.

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I was responding to your point relating to your assumptions about the political response on this side of the Irish Sea.

 

And I was responding to explain the real prize behind the quote from the White Paper.

 

There is already an "Irish Interconnector" to Scotland which you can see on the Gridwatch website. It is capable of 1gigawatt in either direction. A larger shared market with the island of Ireland would take a fair bit of investment.

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"An unprecedented 789,024 requests for postal ballots may result in people being left without the vote, it was claimed yesterday."

 

How exactly ?

 

Perhaps because errors in completion of the paperwork (by the voter) will render them void as it did with 6% of postal ballots in 2011.

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So, currency union, Bank of England, shared defence and obviously economic policy (give or take a little wiggle room).

 

What kind, of , er Indy is that? Sounds like you quite fancy that devolution lark.

 

And Madge They all love Madge

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Perhaps because errors in completion of the paperwork (by the voter) will render them void as it did with 6% of postal ballots in 2011.

That's not really what it's saying though, it reads more like due to the high number of postal vote applications some won't be able to vote. Not exactly clear. Maybe they've run out of envelopes ?

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432 pages on this thread and there is only one conclusion.

 

We are better together.

 

Far too much risk to go it alone. Take out the jingoism and the fairer society pish then most Scots will know what side their bread is butteted.

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Scottish stadiums become referendum battlegrounds

 

 

Scotland is wound tight, waiting to uncoil itself next Thursday, the day the country will vote on whether it should be independent from the United Kingdom. The debate has generated the kind of tension and engagement usually reserved for soccer rivalries in Scotland, and in fact the country?s stadiums have become key battlegrounds for the Yes and No campaigns. And as is so often the case in Scotland, the Old Firm rivals Rangers and Celtic are dominating the outlook; to the surprise of no one, here they are, as with most things, on opposite sides.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/scottish-stadiums-become-referendum-battlegrounds/article20570503/

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Guest GhostHunter

Probably been asked earlier, however both my children enjoy after school activities that rely on lottery funding in order to operate.

 

How will independence affect Lottery Funding ? Assuming we become independent, and, assuming the UK government withdraw all funding, is there a contingency being discussed by Salmond ?

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Probably been asked earlier, however both my children enjoy after school activities that rely on lottery funding in order to operate.

 

How will independence affect Lottery Funding ? Assuming we become independent, and, assuming the UK government withdraw all funding, is there a contingency being discussed by Salmond ?

 

I'm sure the contract is with Camelot an they have a duty for the lotto in Scotland until 2025ish. Funding will be split as now til at least then

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Probably been asked earlier, however both my children enjoy after school activities that rely on lottery funding in order to operate.

 

How will independence affect Lottery Funding ? Assuming we become independent, and, assuming the UK government withdraw all funding, is there a contingency being discussed by Salmond ?

Don't know what is in White Paper, maybe a Scottish lottery or still joint with split share.

 

I know at one point there was a claim that our OAPs would no longer be entitled to receive a the state pension but that was confirmed as not true by the whatever body is in charge of them as Scots OAPS had contributed their stamps etc.

 

So as a minimum if we needed our own lottery he would claim 9.5% of what is held just now?

 

 

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