Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[stirlo]

What I find bemusing about the various polls is the large difference in terms of the figures provided for don't knows. For example, today's Guardian/ICM poll had a figure of 17% for undecided while yesterday's Yougov/Times/Sun poll had 6% for don't knows.

[Nookie Bear]

 

 

Thanks for providing the link. I got the quote from memory nearly right.

 

Everyone who is voting next week should read the article that you've linked. I'm all in favour in looking to the future, not the past, but it's possible to do both, and understanding how and why Scotland lost its independence in the first place should be understood.

 

Some people, and I'm one of them, believe that righting a historical wrong should be one of the factors in deciding how to vote.

 

Got lot of time for your posts but this is ridiculous.

 

 

[leginten]

 

Here was what Asda was saying before the cosy chat with Dave . Wonder what promises were made .

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/4433722

 

It is fascinating how many businesses have only just discovered their major concerns since last weekend, isn't it? An astonishing outbreak of random spontaneity.

[JAYEL]

Robert Peston says Treasury briefed RBS move before board decision.

 

http://m.bbc.co.uk/n...siness-29185319

 

 

 

BBC telt

[Thunderstruck]

 

 

 

Thanks for providing the link. I got the quote from memory nearly right.

 

Everyone who is voting next week should read the article that you've linked. I'm all in favour in looking to the future, not the past, but it's possible to do both, and understanding how and why Scotland lost its independence in the first place should be understood.

 

Some people, and I'm one of them, believe that righting a historical wrong should be one of the factors in deciding how to vote.

 

A narrow, superficial view of what happened with no mention of the conditions in Scotland before the union dragged Scotland to the level of prosperity then in England. Giving enterprising Scots a market in which to thrive and this in turn transformed the economic and cultural landscape of Scotland. Politics was, is and always will be a dirty business but to single out this one instance in hundreds of years of chicanery (before and after) is wrong. Why not highlight some utterly shameful acts perpetrated by Scots for Scots by way of profit from abject human suffering - http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/secret-shame-the-scots-who-made-a-fortune-from-abolition-of-slavery.20365912

 

This vote is not about righting the wrongs of the past be it 300 or 30 years ago. It is about our future and more importantly the future of our children. It is too important to be left to politicians who have a sense of responsibility that rarely extends beyond the end of their noses. It is too important a decision to be made on emotion alone. It is too important a decision to be made without a plan, a roadmap, a timetable. A Yes vote is a one way street and those seeking that should enter it with their eyes open and fully informed as to the risks and benefits.

 

I fear that too many are running on emotion stoked by irrelevant historic references plus others who exercising a protest vote or, worse, relying on the vain and empty promises of politicians.

[Gabriel]

As the referendum nears, and the polls generally show little between the sides, or at least the margin of error makes it difficult to call, what else can you see either side doing to make the difference in the final five days?

[Yoda]

It is fascinating how many businesses have only just discovered their major concerns since last weekend, isn't it? An astonishing outbreak of random spontaneity.

 

The split in the vote (give or take) is 50/50.

 

No business wants to p1ss-off 50% of its customer base, so will keep quite about its views. It's only when it looked like a possible win for YES, that they have shown their hands.

 

A YES vote is bad news for (most) business, so they're speaking out now.

[RosscoC]

As the referendum nears, and the polls generally show little between the sides, or at least the margin of error makes it difficult to call, what else can you see either side doing to make the difference in the final five days?

 

I think the UK government will be playing the armed forces/defence card next.

[jambo1185]

 

 

 

I think the UK government will be playing the armed forces/defence card next.

 

Davidson has been using this line quite frequently for the past fortnight, but it seems like one that could be put into he spotlight more I agree.

[Maple Leaf]

Got lot of time for your posts but this is ridiculous.

 

It's all about opinions.

[Gabriel]

 

 

 

I think the UK government will be playing the armed forces/defence card next.

 

Possible, but do you think that would be a big enough issue to sway people?

[Nookie Bear]

 

 

It's all about opinions.

 

Sorry I was blunt but only because it was short of your usual standard.

 

Peace!

[Ulysses]

 

Is it not a bit misleading to then tout these figures as almost factual, as many people seem to be treating them?

 

What's misleading about the surveys? They say precisely what they mean - the poll ratings reflect the likely result if the vote were held at the time of the fieldwork, with the percentages subject to a margin of error usually of 3% and with a confidence interval of 95% (in effect, a 1 in 20 chance that the actual percentages would be more than 3% different). They don't claim to be anything else, so if anyone is misleading anyone it isn't the pollsters. However, the evidence shows that opinion polls tend to predict election results quite accurately, so it is no great surprise that politicians and the media take them very seriously during election campaigns.

 

 

Using the caveats the pollsters themselves imposed, you could still read Sundays results as 50/50.

 

Yep, and that's how I'm reading all of the polls published since the last debate. That's what I mean (and pollsters mean) by saying it's a statistical dead heat.

[OBE]

As the referendum nears, and the polls generally show little between the sides, or at least the margin of error makes it difficult to call, what else can you see either side doing to make the difference in the final five days?

 

Tell the truth, but that just ain't politics, is it?

[heartsfc_fan]

I've got a mate who lives and works in Newcastle. Moved away a while ago. Went to Uni there and has a partner there.

Now he has no interest in moving back here. He is Scottish and has his parents living up here, but he hasn't actually lived up here for the best part of 5 years.

Anyway... he never left the electoral register and has never registered down south (only renting, no mortgage) so he still has a vote up here.

He's coming back next week specially to vote "yes" and then bugger off back south purely because "hates the Tories".

Then he went on to say he has no interest about Politics in Engerland and doesn't vote down there.

Edited September 12, 2014 by heartsfc_fan

[RosscoC]

 

 

 

Possible, but do you think that would be a big enough issue to sway people?

 

Trying to play into people's fears: money, food, fuel. Surely the next thing will be security.

[Randy Marsh]

Noticed the odds are drifting for the Yes vote and quite a bit. They are generally available at 3/1 or better now but were 7/4 at the start of the week. That would indicate bad news for Yes.

[Gorgiewave]

Noticed the odds are drifting for the Yes vote and quite a bit. They are generally available at 3/1 or better now but were 7/4 at the start of the week. That would indicate bad news for Yes.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

 

To flesh that out.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

The [modedit] is using Deutsche Bank to claim a Yes vote would lead to a "new Great Depression"!

 

 

PS Since when has that piece of toilet paper been censored?

 

[JamboX2]

 

 

Do you even need to be an MP? Douglas-Home was still in the Lords when he became prime minister, albeit he quickly found a seat.

 

By convention no prime minister since Sailsbury has been a Lord. Home's party passed an act which allowed Home to resign his peerage and stand as an MP. It was confirmed by the fact the Tories turned down Halifax as leader as he was a Lord and it was felt it was not appropriate for a sitting PM not to be in the peoples house.

[OBE]

I've got a mate who lives and works in Newcastle. Moved away a while ago. Went to Uni there and has a partner there.

Now he has no interest in moving back here. He is Scottish and has his parents living up here, but he hasn't actually lived up here for the best part of 5 years.

Anyway... he never left the electoral register and has never registered down south (only renting, no mortgage) so he still has a vote up here.

He's coming back next week specially to vote "yes" and then bugger off back south purely because "hates the Tories".

Then he went on to say he has no interest about Politics in Engerland and doesn't vote down there.

 

Tell him to get back dan sath before midnight on Thursday, Hadrians Wall is gawn back up and it's getting electrified. Ricky Foulton, comic genius without swearing.

[Gabriel]

 

 

 

Tell the truth, but that just ain't politics, is it?

 

I was thinking something more realistic. The 'truth', you're right, that's a bit left field.

[Gabriel]

 

 

 

By convention no prime minister since Sailsbury has been a Lord. Home's party passed an act which allowed Home to resign his peerage and stand as an MP. It was confirmed by the fact the Tories turned down Halifax as leader as he was a Lord and it was felt it was not appropriate for a sitting PM not to be in the peoples house.

 

Yes, but my point was that he was prime minister, I think for about a fortnight, when he wasn't technically a member of either House?

[JamboGraham]

 

What I find bemusing about the various polls is the large difference in terms of the figures provided for don't knows. For example, today's Guardian/ICM poll had a figure of 17% for undecided while yesterday's Yougov/Times/Sun poll had 6% for don't knows.

 

YouGov respondents 'opt in' to being part of the survey group so are generally more politically engaged...they actively seek to be included in the poll.

 

ICM just call people at random, so have more chance of hitting less politically engaged people.

[indianajones]

Been listening to rage against the machine all day. So excited for my yes vote.

 

Power to the people.

[JamboX2]

 

 

 

Yes, but my point was that he was prime minister, I think for about a fortnight, when he wasn't technically a member of either House?

 

Douglas-Home is a very unique situation. It'll never come up again.

 

Under the constitution the queen appoints her ministers. She in effect appoints all ministers of the crown. From the UK government to the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments. She, by convention, picks the leading minister to head the government from the biggest bloc in parliament. Home was the choice of the Tories. The majority party. His peerage was dropped to meet the conventions in place set by Halifax, and those Lords turned down for the job before him in the early 20th century.

 

If anything the age old way of a PM being picked happened and it just so happened he had no seat.

 

However, Home is so unique a case it's unlikely to happen again.

 

Current convention is that a Prime minister must be a sitting MP elected under the terms of acceptance for an MP under the law.

[GrimUpNorth]

Intertesting guide to next Thursday. Someone above mentioned that the way Glasgow votes will determine the way the referendum goes, if this guide is accurate then I can see why that's the case. Yes rating of 5 with 11% of the electorate. Bit like Florida, or is it Ohio, in the US Presidential election.

 

[JamboX2]

I see Newsnet Scotland are claiming they have confirmation of 2 Labour MSPs voting Yes but can't publish their names for some reason. Anyone got any valid backing up of this?

 

Pretty major news if this is so. If popular or well known faces could chuck Scottish Labour's core into a meltdown.

[Gabriel]

 

 

 

Douglas-Home is a very unique situation. It'll never come up again.

 

Under the constitution the queen appoints her ministers. She in effect appoints all ministers of the crown. From the UK government to the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments. She, by convention, picks the leading minister to head the government from the biggest bloc in parliament. Home was the choice of the Tories. The majority party. His peerage was dropped to meet the conventions in place set by Halifax, and those Lords turned down for the job before him in the early 20th century.

 

If anything the age old way of a PM being picked happened and it just so happened he had no seat.

 

However, Home is so unique a case it's unlikely to happen again.

 

Current convention is that a Prime minister must be a sitting MP elected under the terms of acceptance for an MP under the law.

 

Thanks for that, very interesting. That's the strange thing about British politics, it does throw up unpredictable situations and solutions. By this time next week, rUK could be in the midst of a constitutional crisis, Boris Johnson could be put forward as the new leader of the Tory party, and the Queen could be asking him to form a government, all before he's even won his Uxbridge seat. Implausible, yes, but not legally impossible. Or, is it?

[Boris]

 

 

Or not- this is about people living in Scotland deciding an important matter

Place of birth is totally irrelevant - and so it should be

you live here you have a vote

Be you English, french, Polish or whatever

 

100% agree. If this an attempt to blame English voters in Scotland for a no vote, then it's churlish to say the least.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

100% agree. If this an attempt to blame English voters in Scotland for a no vote, then it's churlish to say the least.

Quite. At the same time though, people should consider whether a self-determination vote is appropriate for them to exercise. I would have abstained for that reason but that is just my opinion.

[Maroon Sailor]

 

 

 

I think the UK government will be playing the armed forces/defence card next.

 

And rightly so

 

There is no appetite whatsoever from the top brass of the Armed Forces for an independent Scotland.

 

Our forces are one thing every person in the UK can be proud of

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

 

And rightly so

 

There is no appetite whatsoever from the top brass of the Armed Forces for an independent Scotland.

 

Our forces are one thing every person in the UK can be proud of

Just a shame about the numpties in government who give them their orders.

[ToadKiller Dog]

A RBS shareholder and former Perth Tory councillor has reported the treasury to police Scotland over making RBS move public before the board had made a decision itself .

According to twitter

 

Good luck to him but won't get anywhere

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I see The Hootsmon is leading with the pseudo-Commie rantings of Jim Sillars!

[Gorgiewave]

I see The Hootsmon is leading with the pseudo-Commie rantings of Jim Sillars!

 

Quite right. He was well out of line with a threat like that.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Quite right. He was well out of line with a threat like that.

 

He's entitled to an opinion.

 

It would be hilarious to see his rant be enacted though!

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

Sillars is an arse but he's right in that there will be quite a few Scots who might leave it a while before they're back in John Lewis or asda.

[Don Draper]

Willie knows.

 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

Sillars is an arse but he's right in that there will be quite a few Scots who might leave it a while before they're back in John Lewis or asda.

 

Yeah, until Saturday when they need a pint of milk.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Yeah, until Saturday when they need a pint of milk.

John Lewis sells milk?

[Ivan Drago]

 

 

100% agree. If this an attempt to blame English voters in Scotland for a no vote, then it's churlish to say the least.

The English people I know who have a vote all seem to be voting yes

[ToadKiller Dog]

 

 

Yeah, until Saturday when they need a pint of milk.

 

It will be fine we will just milk all the rats that will multiply all over Scotland as our society collapses

into the 3rd world

[My Left Nut]

The English people I know who have a vote all seem to be voting yes

 

Same with me, I know a fair few English folk and they are yes. The arguments at work are getting out of hand now. Was at a meeting last week and one guy had a yes wristband on and one of the boys in the meeting said to him "Oh, you're one of them! You can get that piece of shit off your wrist". Kinda kicked off after that! This is not something to fall out over, everyone has their opinion and we just need to accept that.

 

Not looking forward to Friday as I think it is gonna get pretty tasty in the office!

Edited September 13, 2014 by My Left Nut

[Mikey1874]

As most yes supporters seem to be at the very least disappointed by the bbc coverage of the referendum. What do No supporters feel of the bbc coverage? Do you agree with the perceived bias towards No and are you comfortable with it?

 

tv, radio etc rules are strict - have to be even handed but do get a feeling the people on camera esp national / English coverage are supporting the union perhaps their own personal views are coming through in their facial expressions etc and they should make an effort not to.

 

but reporting the barracking of Better Together events by Yes for example is not bias - just stating what they see

[DETTY29]

Yeah, until Saturday when they need a pint of milk.

Well we'll just have to go to Harvey Nicks.

[Gabriel]

With reference to the media, the worst thing for me is the ignorance of the people Sky and BBC get on to discuss the newspapers. This week I've heard the following prognoses: we're going to be like 'Spain, without the sunshine', 'Croatia, without the sunshine', 'Greece, without the sunshine'. What twaddle. Regardless of the result, come Friday morning it'll still be the same place: Scotland, without the sunshine.

[The Mighty Thor]

Yes the No vote will deliver devo max

That's total BS.

A no vote will deliver nothing more than vague promises of a timetable which will run out of parliamentary time. That's fact.

So a no vote does not deliver devo max.

[The Mighty Thor]

 

 

There have been strong suggestions this week that the man who strongly advised Cameron via Miliband that there should be no third option on the ballot paper was none other than ... Gordon "Timetable" Brown.

 

That would tie in with Gordons previous.

[Hasselhoff]

So what guarantee is there we will get a currency union? Don't see what is in it for the rUK.

 

Yes suggest that it will mean transaction cross for the businesses in both rUK and Scotland but that would hurt Scotland a lot more than it would the UK since 70% of our exports go to rUK while only a fraction of rUK's come to Scotland. Also by not agreeing to a CU, rUK will get themselves the tax from the 5 banks who will move their registered offices. They could easily compensate the rUK businesses for their transaction costs from the revenue that brings in if they needed to.