Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

ITV tweet says they understand Rupert Murdoch has land in Scotland!

itvnews

ITV News understands that Rupert Murdoch has landed in Scotland, days ahead of the referendum http://t.co/lFiE4JYmUR

13/09/2014 14:42

 

The Digger's revenge!

 

The man is a phenomenal :'>

[GBJambo]

New survation poll has No at 54 and Yes at 46

Edited September 13, 2014 by GBJambo

[westbow]

New survation poll has No at 54 and Yes at 46

New survation poll has No at 54 and Yes at 46

A week is a long time in politics as Harold Wilson never actually said. Four days though..seems like an eternity.

[jambogaza]

Rumours that the ST's poll won't be too kind on yes either - the establishment is doing what it does best by the looks of things.

[Don Draper]

BT's plans for the final week leaked online:

 

http://nationalcollective.com/2014/09/13/better-together-final-week-plans-leaked/

[Stuart Lyon]

The Sun to back YES - is this good news for them or the No camp?

jek1991

Reports that @rupertmurdoch says the Sun is considering backing the Yes campaign are true according to his PR #indyref #c4news

13/09/2014 16:57

Edited September 13, 2014 by Stuart Lyon

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

The Sun to back YES - is this good news for them or the No camp?

jek1991

Reports that @rupertmurdoch says the Sun is considering backing the Yes campaign are true according to his PR #indyref #c4news

13/09/2014 16:57

 

Looking forward to some delicious hypocrisy!

[Brandt]

The Sun to back YES - is this good news for them or the No camp?

jek1991

Reports that @rupertmurdoch says the Sun is considering backing the Yes campaign are true according to his PR #indyref #c4news

13/09/2014 16:57

 

"Having the backing of the Sun is like having a character reference from Adolf Hitler"

[GBJambo]

Salmond releases his defence plans

[westbow]

The Sun to back YES - is this good news for them or the No camp?

jek1991

Reports that @rupertmurdoch says the Sun is considering backing the Yes campaign are true according to his PR #indyref #c4news

13/09/2014 16:57

I kind of thought they were anyway.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Toadkiller Dog what about the SNP guy who resigned yesterday over his tweet re Gordon Brown's daughter who died?

 

Out of order as well , all for strong debates but personal attacks isn't needed .

[Stuart Lyon]

Toad killer - I agree

[Oscar da house cat]

 

Out of order as well , all for strong debates but personal attacks isn't needed .

 

It's all personal now. The vitriol from both sides is getting out of hand. The leaders of all sides need to put a lid on it now.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Oscar da house cat]

 

Some political leaders are nation builders. Others just want to win. Given the strategic and tactical choices that were available, I think it's clear that the First Minister belongs to the latter group. It's regrettable, because it may mean his legacy will be one of division rather than independence - even if he wins.

 

Seems like they are trying to create a class war, scary...

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[john5698]

Salmond releases his defence plans

That really made me laugh, can just see him hiding behind hadrian's wall with his wee bow and arra!

[Malinga the Swinga]

The disgraceful speech by Jim Sillars has shown the Yes camp in a very bad light. Threatening a day of reckoning for banks and then some sort of threat to nationalise BP has shown Sillars as a dinosaur from the 70's and as Salmond has not shown any inclanation to reign him back, it reflects very poorly on Yes.

 

Frain to say that cheap talk like this is not what I would expect from a senior politician.

[redm]

@GerryHassan: Now is the time for calmness: ICM call it Yes 54% No 46%: a 8% Yes lead. #indyref http://t.co/lU4FT2Yp0p

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

@GerryHassan: Now is the time for calmness: ICM call it Yes 54% No 46%: a 8% Yes lead. #indyref http://t.co/lU4FT2Yp0p

 

Ooft. Just when yes was getting a wee bit despondent again. This thing is going to the wire. So exciting.

 

[Pistol1874]

Observer has 53-47 no.

 

Only one poll matters.

[FORTHCLYDE]

Vote yes to not having to pay a TV licence again.

[jambo1185]

Haha these polls are all over the place!

 

Although the icm poll was an online poll was it not? Which would be consistent with a higher yes support.

Edited September 13, 2014 by jambo1185

[JamboX2]

Vote yes to not having to pay a TV licence again.

 

...White Paper pledges to create a SBC paid for by a licence fee.

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

Haha these polls are all over the place!

 

Although the icm poll was an online poll was it not? Which would be consistent with a higher yes support.

 

They sure are.

 

You would think they'd have different methods of contacting respondents. A poll contacting folk on their home phone would get a much greater amount of pensioners, just as one only available through smartphone link would boost the numbers of youngsters.

[Footballfirst]

Health waning re the ICM Internet poll result from John Curtice

 

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

 

ICM returns today to using the internet for its polling, this time for the Sunday Telegraph. Much of the interviewing for this latest poll in fact happened on the same days as that for the company?s poll in Saturday?s Guardian. However, this poll is a smaller exercise than those the company has been undertaking regularly during the course of the last twelve months for Scotsman Newspapers, and indeed has a smaller sample size (705) than is common in any poll. That smaller sample size means that it is more vulnerable to the possibility that its results deviate from the true picture as a result of chance.

So the fact that this poll has the Yes side well ahead comes with a substantial health warning. Yes are on 49% (up 11 points on the equivalent figure in its last internet poll for Scotland on Sunday) while No are on 42%,(down five). Once the Don?t Knows (just 9% of the sample) are removed, Yes are on 54%, up 9 points. This is#line"] the highest vote for Yes ever recorded by ICM in one of its internet polls; its previous high was 48% as long ago as April. But given the methodological caveats, the finding, while not wholly disregarded, should clearly be viewed with caution. So far as our poll of polls is concerned, the poll will be included but, exceptionally, given a weight of 0.7 to reflect its smaller sample size.

The poll covers now very familiar ground on currency. A clear majority (69%) feel that ?Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(?) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum?, though worded in this way the proposition only secures 36% support amongst No supporters, a finding not replicated some other recent polls.

More interesting perhaps is that in response to a rather complicated question about the economic impact that independence might have on both sides of the border, the proportion who reckoned Scotland?s economy would be damaged (37%) was almost matched by an equal proportion who think it would benefit (36%). Here perhaps is further evidence that the Yes side can only win if it does not lose on the issue of the economy. What we need, however, is further evidence that this is indeed what it is managing to achieve.

[Ulysses]

Health waning re the ICM Internet poll result from John Curtice

 

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

 

I don't think there's that much of a health warning required. A sample of 707 has a margin of error of a little under 4%. So it's a bigger margin than most other polls - but not by much.

 

What I find more intriguing is the "double weighting" that some pollsters do, including ICM, to account for party political preference. It has the effect of increasing the Yes score, but it's not clear whether this type of weighting adds or removes a bias. ICM, Survation and Panelbase do this, whereas Ipsos, TNS and YouGov don't.

[Norm]

I'm a probably Yes but could still easily be a No voter.

 

How long do people think the economic fallout would last post Yes? It's pretty clear there'll be some. How bad and for how long?

 

I can handle a few years of cutting bills if it'll be better in the long run which I think it will. If we're talking 10 years that's pushing it. Or am I likely to be living in a cardboard box anyway?

[Gorgiewave]

I don't think there's that much of a health warning required. A sample of 707 has a margin of error of a little under 4%. So it's a bigger margin than most other polls - but not by much.

 

What I find more intriguing is the "double weighting" that some pollsters do, including ICM, to account for party political preference. It has the effect of increasing the Yes score, but it's not clear whether this type of weighting adds or removes a bias. ICM, Survation and Panelbase do this, whereas Ipsos, TNS and YouGov don't.

 

Can you explain simply or provide a link about how the margin of error is calculated?

[Ulysses]

 

How long do people think the economic fallout would last post Yes? It's pretty clear there'll be some. How bad and for how long?

 

 

A little longer than if you vote No, but I doubt there's a huge amount in it. You're not going to avoid "austerity measures" by voting Yes, and it looks as if an independent Scotland would have to impose tougher measures (but not enormously tougher) over a slightly longer time period. But I honestly doubt there would be a huge difference between the two scenarios.

 

The tl;dr version: No pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, but no sackcloth, ashes and hand-me-down clothes either.

[Norm]

 

 

A little longer than if you vote No, but I doubt there's a huge amount in it. You're not going to avoid "austerity measures" by voting Yes, and it looks as if an independent Scotland would have to impose tougher measures (but not enormously tougher) over a slightly longer time period. But I honestly doubt there would be a huge difference between the two scenarios.

 

The tl;dr version: No pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, but no sackcloth, ashes and hand-me-down clothes either.

 

See, I could probably handle an extra ?50 a month for the next 5 years but if we're talking treble that then I'm out.

 

In fact, how bad is it going to get with a No? I'll be pissed off if I'm ?50 out of pocket for this same old shit.

Edited September 13, 2014 by Normthebarman

[flecktimus]

@GerryHassan: Now is the time for calmness: ICM call it Yes 54% No 46%: a 8% Yes lead. #indyref http://t.co/lU4FT2Yp0p

 

You have a pm

[Beats]

Yes vote out to 4/1 with the bookies, No 2/11

[DETTY29]

I'm a probably Yes but could still easily be a No voter.

 

How long do people think the economic fallout would last post Yes? It's pretty clear there'll be some. How bad and for how long?

 

I can handle a few years of cutting bills if it'll be better in the long run which I think it will. If we're talking 10 years that's pushing it. Or am I likely to be living in a cardboard box anyway?

Unless it's a NO rout, we are going through all this again in 2020. Well BBC News last week think it is a high probability.

 

Now will Scotland's share of the UK debt by then be more, less or pretty much the same?

 

The irony of voting No now, but so pissed off with WM in 5 years, going YES in 2020 but taking on another ?50bn - ?80bn of debt.

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

Five days before the vote and no one with any certainty can say, if the vote is yes, whether there will be currency union, what our defence forces will look like, what our deficit will be if we break away, what our education budget will be, will we re-nationalise the oil, will we have our own central bank, will the NHS be budgeted on, will our pensions be paid, what will the large employers do and will we be allowed into EU or even do we want to be in the EU.

 

Five days before we vote and no one with any certainty can say, if we vote no, what extra devolution powers there will be for Scotland.

 

The campaign has gone on for years and neither side can be proud of the almost completely negative campaigns they have run. I honestly doubt any of these politicians would know the truth if it jumped up and bit them on the ****. Salmond, Sturgeon and Sillars are chancers of the highest order, whilst Cameron, Darling and Brown are discredited Westminster chancers.

 

I was leaning Yes as thought it would be a proud moment to be an independent country, but the Yes camp have simply failed to convince me that, for my children's future, they are capable of running a prosperous country. Sillars, in particular, belongs in the scrap heap of the 70's as he fails to see the world has moved on. I still believe Salmond and Sturgeon only think of themselves and their glory and think nothing of the huge risk they are exposing Scotland's children to, and sadly, I don't think they even care.

 

It is a No from me.

[DETTY29]

See, I could probably handle an extra ?50 a month for the next 5 years but if we're talking treble that then I'm out.

 

In fact, how bad is it going to get with a No? I'll be pissed off if I'm ?50 out of pocket for this same old shit.

Mate,

 

Non of pay enough taxes.

 

The 2020 election is probably one that all parties will be trying to lose.

[JamboGraham]

 

 

 

See, I could probably handle an extra ?50 a month for the next 5 years but if we're talking treble that then I'm out.

 

In fact, how bad is it going to get with a No? I'll be pissed off if I'm ?50 out of pocket for this same old shit.

 

If you ever manage to get some answers to these questions then I am pretty sure the entire JKB membership would appreciate a PM!

 

No one can provide guarantee either way, you can assess the level of risk/reward with both sides but even that is only an estimate.

 

Not easy this is it...?

[Ivan Drago]

These polls are giving me a sair heid. Can't wait til the whole things over tbh!

[Ulysses]

Can you explain simply or provide a link about how the margin of error is calculated?

 

Nope.

 

By that, I mean that I can't explain it without also explaining a few other terms, so the explanation wouldn't be simple.

 

 

Can you explain simply or provide a link about how the margin of error is calculated?

 

The most straightforward explanation I can see is here:

 

http://www.isixsigma...ls-made-simple/

 

 

This is a longer and more complicated (but still readable) piece from the American Statistical Association, courtesy of Dublin City University. It deals with one item that often gets overlooked - the fact that the margin of error in a poll refers only to the specific scores for each option, and not to the lead that one option has over another. In other words, if the margin of error for a referendum poll is 3%, and the polls shows No leading by 52-48, the margin of error for the specific scores (52 and 48) is plus or minus 3, but the margin of error for the gap (No leading by 4) isn't 3, but more or less 5.

 

http://www.computing...rgan/margin.pdf

 

 

Finally, here are some links to online margin of error calculators.

 

http://www.comres.co...-calculator.htm

 

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

 

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

[moogsy]

Yes vote out to 4/1 with the bookies, No 2/11

 

Not looking good for a yes vote, bookies rarely wrong with this sort of thing.

[Beats]

Not looking good for a yes vote, bookies rarely wrong with this sort of thing.

 

Especially when the Yes was at 7/4 this time last week.

[Footballfirst]

Panelbase for Sunday Times has it 49.4% yes and 50.6% no.

[Ulysses]

See, I could probably handle an extra ?50 a month for the next 5 years but if we're talking treble that then I'm out.

 

In fact, how bad is it going to get with a No? I'll be pissed off if I'm ?50 out of pocket for this same old shit.

 

Whoever ends up governing the country, or whatever constitutional setup it has, there's an annual deficit of about ?2,000 per person or ?4,400 per household to be closed, whether by tax hikes, spending cuts or a combination of both. So you're talking about more than ?50 per month regardless of whether you're living in the UK or an independent Scotland.

[Gambo]

Can anyone explain to me the benefit of the Scottish Parliament and the powers it is allowed to have just now.

 

I voted no to devolution but will vote yes to independence, either give us all the power or give it all back to a UK government. I just don't get this 'give them some powers' system.

 

I'm voting yes but won't be bothered whatever way the vote goes, never really noticed a difference after devolution (even after all the scaremongering I fell for at the time......The same scaremongering I hear to do with this referendum) & don't expect to see much difference this time around, although imo the Westminster go will see s as a smaller 'region' who they can control.

[Gabriel]

Whoever ends up governing the country, or whatever constitutional setup it has, there's an annual deficit of about ?2,000 per person or ?4,400 per household to be closed, whether by tax hikes, spending cuts or a combination of both. So you're talking about more than ?50 per month regardless of whether you're living in the UK or an independent Scotland.

 

Interesting figures. Has this been calculated for rUK as well in light of a 'Yes' victory?

[Footballfirst]

Can anyone explain to me the benefit of the Scottish Parliament and the powers it is allowed to have just now.

 

I voted no to devolution but will vote yes to independence, either give us all the power or give it all back to a UK government. I just don't get this 'give them some powers' system.

 

I'm voting yes but won't be bothered whatever way the vote goes, never really noticed a difference after devolution (even after all the scaremongering I fell for at the time......The same scaremongering I hear to do with this referendum) & don't expect to see much difference this time around, although imo the Westminster go will see s as a smaller 'region' who they can control.

 

There is no point to devolution if all the governing party does is to mirror the policies of their Westminster party.

 

That is where I believe that the Scottish Labour party have let themselves down since 2007 by not being "independent" in their thinking (possibly down to their Westminster overlords). The SNP have taken up some of the left of centre ground from Labour (effectively as social democrats), but have at least attempted to implement their own priorities, e.g. on tuition fees, nursery hours, abolition of bridge tolls

Edited September 13, 2014 by Footballfirst

[Don Draper]

Not looking good for a yes vote, bookies rarely wrong with this sort of thing.

 

Having won a few quid on Atletico Madrid today, I can confirm that bookies do occasionally misjudge stuff.

[Yoda]

BT's plans for the final week leaked online:

 

http://nationalcolle...k-plans-leaked/

 

Yes campaign's plans also leaked; make more promises you can't keep and just tell more lies (in the face of mounting economic evidence).

[Gorgiewave]

Thanks Ulysses.

 

Was the result of the last Irish general election predicted by polls?

[Yoda]

See, I could probably handle an extra ?50 a month for the next 5 years but if we're talking treble that then I'm out.

 

In fact, how bad is it going to get with a No? I'll be pissed off if I'm ?50 out of pocket for this same old shit.

 

Will be a lot worse than that, if Europe's biggest investment bank is to be believed;

 

In the Deutsche Bank report, David Folkerts-Landau, the bank's chief economist, said: "A Yes vote for Scottish independence on Thursday would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill's decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US.

"These decisions, well-intentioned as they were, contributed to years of depression and suffering and could have been avoided had alternative decisions been taken."

[Footballfirst]

Deutsche Bank, that's the one that's domiciled in Frankfurt but has no problem operating in a foreign country that uses a different currency from its native land.

[Gabriel]

Will be a lot worse than that, if Europe's biggest investment bank is to be believed;

 

In the Deutsche Bank report, David Folkerts-Landau, the bank's chief economist, said: "A Yes vote for Scottish independence on Thursday would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill's decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US.

"These decisions, well-intentioned as they were, contributed to years of depression and suffering and could have been avoided had alternative decisions been taken."

 

Does anyone know what Deutsche Bank's position was on German reunification?