Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Guest GhostHunter]

I'm sure the contract is with Camelot an they have a duty for the lotto in Scotland until 2025ish. Funding will be split as now til at least then

 

I'm not so sure - Camelot say it's a case the respective governments.

[leginten]

I thought the BT campaign had decided quite a long time ago and also publicly stated that Scotland could make it successfully as an independent nation. So why is it that in the last few days of the campaign all we are hearing is, essentially, actually you can't now that we've leant on our friends in the banks and the supermarkets?

 

I'm probably being unfair here. I'd forgotten about the "We love ya Scotland" message from the train-load of deeply caring Labour MPs. They know an expenses opportunity when they see one, I'll grant them that.

[Hasselhoff]

 

 

I'm not so sure - Camelot say it's a case the respective governments.

 

I remember salmond being asked about the lottery on the radio. He said they hoped to have the lottery as (Salmond chuckle), Scotland put in more on average to the lottery than the rest of the uk.

 

Says a lot about the scottish mentality for gambling.

 

[Hasselhoff]

Lot of talk about bbc being biased today. I'd be annoyed if bbc weren't asking tough questions to both sides. They accused Jacquie bird of the same when she grilled salmond, then Bernard p too. The "everyone is against us" attitude is pathetic, people are entitled to ask tough questions. If you can't answer them, then it is a sign of a poorly thought out plan.

 

Nick Robinson asked two questions, the second one was not answered. Wings claim that the question was just emotional not logical which is nonsense too. The question remains, why should people trust salmond is right over companies which are responsible for billions of profit? I'd understand the negative reaction if it was just banks but it is more than that. I don't care if Cameron has asked them to speak up, i would rather they did that now than not bother and we go through with this. If you aren't in Team Scotland (ie yes voters) your voice should not be heard.

 

Total deflection by snp away from the questions they cannot answer. They only have to last another week to get away with it.

[Coco]

I thought the BT campaign had decided quite a long time ago and also publicly stated that Scotland could make it successfully as an independent nation. So why is it that in the last few days of the campaign all we are hearing is, essentially, actually you can't now that we've leant on our friends in the banks and the supermarkets?

 

I'm probably being unfair here. I'd forgotten about the "We love ya Scotland" message from the train-load of deeply caring Labour MPs. They know an expenses opportunity when they see one, I'll grant them that.

 

There are consequences when an economic and political union is broken up. Being aware of those consequences is not to say that Scotland could not be a successful country.

 

The campaigns on both sides have been extremely poor. But I'm not voting on the campaigns but on the issues.

[Guest GhostHunter]

Yougov latest has No in front by 4%

[Yoda]

Yougov latest has No in front by 4%

[IMA MAROON]

I remember salmond being asked about the lottery on the radio. He said they hoped to have the lottery as (Salmond chuckle), Scotland put in more on average to the lottery than the rest of the uk.

 

Says a lot about the scottish mentality for gambling.

 

He knows his audience.

 

Scotland is full of gamblers. His promises appeal to the gamblers what can we win attitude.

[Boris]

 

 

 

So, currency union, Bank of England, shared defence and obviously economic policy (give or take a little wiggle room).

 

What kind, of , er Indy is that? Sounds like you quite fancy that devolution lark.

 

Ah, but devolution wouldn't let you legislate on some areas. Eg immigration, or say Scotland wanted to legalise cannabis? I'm sure these would be matters kept by Westminster.

[Forrest]

You want to share economic policy, apparently.

So, currency union, Bank of England, shared defence and obviously economic policy (give or take a little wiggle room).

 

What kind, of , er Indy is that? Sounds like you quite fancy that devolution lark.

 

[modedit]

[Forrest]

So being in the UK hasn't helped in the slightest?

 

Is the UK all hindrance? Are we being bled dry?

 

... you have a significant black hole from day 1 that we will have to fill with cuts or higher taxes.

 

I don't think being in the UK has made a difference - we'd be pretty similar in any case. Is there a noticeable difference in Ireland? Are they still using CRT TVs and Nokia 3210s over there? Still driving round in Ladas and 1983 Polos?

 

On your other point, how do you think every other country in the world finance their "black holes"?

[Hasselhoff]

 

 

On your other point, how do you think every other country in the world finance their "black holes"?

 

By raising taxes, but yes aren't admitting to that. Their financial plan based on the maximum possible oil estimate is akin to adding a monthly line in your household budget "win ?1k on lottery".

[jambogaza]

Will there be an ICM poll tonight?

[Libertarian]

I'm amazed that UK debt, (currently standing at ?1.4 trillion and set to rise to ?1.6 trillion) hasn't played more of a role during the referendum campaign. 60% of the austerity cuts have still to be implemented by Westminster and this will have huge effects on education, health and all public services. Meanwhile Westminster has agreed to spend ?100 billion on a new Trident weapons system. Also the unelected House of Lords with over 800 Lords who can all claim over ?300 per-day tax-free. Personally I think that it is a no brainer; we need a Yes vote not only for Scotland but to force the Westminster system to modernise for the benefit of all the people in the UK.

[deesidejambo]

He knows his audience.

 

Scotland is full of gamblers. His promises appeal to the gamblers what can we win attitude.

 

There is little doubt that Scotland would be able to have its own lottery. But if Salmond wants a fairer society he should not have it, as the lottery is far from "fair" - its a simple stealth tax on gamblers.

 

So much for fairer society

[Stuart Lyon]

See Salmond has been called out about the supposed Treasury leaks. Surely honest Eck doesn't lie.

[hughesie27]

See Salmond has been called out about the supposed Treasury leaks. Surely honest Eck doesn't lie.

 

Whats he lied about?

 

Did the BBC not have info leaked to them before the stock exchange was informed?

[deesidejambo]

But it isn't actually out of step. The last seven polls have all shown results that are effectively the same as each other within a 3% error margin. It is at one end of a number line, but the reality is that all seven polls are showing a statistical dead heat.

To be pedantic they are not showing statistical dead heats - they all consistently show No in the Lead. The chances that they are each individually out by 3% in one direction is extremely statistically small.

 

As for the YouGov Poll - it is the least statistically reliable of all. first - you need to Register with YouGov if you want to take part. That immediately introduces a bias - only those who want to take part will register, leaving it open to activists of both sides.

 

Secondly - it is web-based so the older generation are less likely to take part.

 

Thirdly - YouGov has the demographic data of all its participants, so it (or a sponsor) can "influence" who takes part in its polls. If you want to, you can commision a poll from them and tell them you only want people from Leith to take part - hence guaranteeing a Yes outcome. Likewise if you ask them to poll Royal Deeside and it will be No.

 

In other words YouGov is not a reliable pollster.

 

The only reliable way is totally random selection of a statistically significant portion of a community. Given th egeographical splits in opinion then you are left with random phone polling, which itself is not 100% random but as close as it gets.

[Guest GhostHunter]

At the end of the day, if it contravenes the 28day rule, then it's not going to change anything.

 

It's not like "Yes" would then win by default.

 

It's not good, but it's not going to change anything.

[RosscoC]

See Salmond has been called out about the supposed Treasury leaks. Surely honest Eck doesn't lie.

 

Lie about what?

[Stuart Lyon]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29169114

[Gabriel]

I'm amazed that UK debt, (currently standing at ?1.4 trillion and set to rise to ?1.6 trillion) hasn't played more of a role during the referendum campaign. 60% of the austerity cuts have still to be implemented by Westminster and this will have huge effects on education, health and all public services. Meanwhile Westminster has agreed to spend ?100 billion on a new Trident weapons system. Also the unelected House of Lords with over 800 Lords who can all claim over ?300 per-day tax-free. Personally I think that it is a no brainer; we need a Yes vote not only for Scotland but to force the Westminster system to modernise for the benefit of all the people in the UK.

 

Tactically, had the 'Yes' campaign used this information more, it would have ostensibly meant running a 'negative campaign', which would then mean it could no longer use terms such as 'project fear' against the 'No' campaign, and as we have seen it is more beneficial and probably enjoyable to run a positive campaign. It may yet appear in the last few days of the campaign, though. Regardless of a person's voting intentions, the fact is that the UK deficit is simply terrifying and, as you rightly point out, the real, sorry very real, cuts are yet to happen. Given that Scotland is still so overly dependent on public spending, the cuts are going to be felt particularly keenly by Scots.

[doctor jambo]

Tactically, had the 'Yes' campaign used this information more, it would have ostensibly meant running a 'negative campaign', which would then mean it could no longer use terms such as 'project fear' against the 'No' campaign, and as we have seen it is more beneficial and probably enjoyable to run a positive campaign. It may yet appear in the last few days of the campaign, though. Regardless of a person's voting intentions, the fact is that the UK deficit is simply terrifying and, as you rightly point out, the real, sorry very real, cuts are yet to happen. Given that Scotland is still so overly dependent on public spending, the cuts are going to be felt particularly keenly by Scots.

 

A yes vote will not change that

Cuts will happen,

Indie Scotland runs a deficit

It may not have occured but the massive cost of Trident is spread across the entire UK, but MOST of the benefit will be in Scotland.

Trident is good for us on that basis

[Nookie Bear]

Ah, but devolution wouldn't let you legislate on some areas. Eg immigration, or say Scotland wanted to legalise cannabis? I'm sure these would be matters kept by Westminster.

 

How do you think Salmond/SNP/Indy Scotland would approach immigration and would it be different from rUK?

[Thunderstruck]

I'm amazed that UK debt, (currently standing at ?1.4 trillion and set to rise to ?1.6 trillion) hasn't played more of a role during the referendum campaign. 60% of the austerity cuts have still to be implemented by Westminster and this will have huge effects on education, health and all public services. Meanwhile Westminster has agreed to spend ?100 billion on a new Trident weapons system. Also the unelected House of Lords with over 800 Lords who can all claim over ?300 per-day tax-free. Personally I think that it is a no brainer; we need a Yes vote not only for Scotland but to force the Westminster system to modernise for the benefit of all the people in the UK.

 

Irrespective of happens next week, Scotland faces further austerity.

[doctor jambo]

How do you think Salmond/SNP/Indy Scotland would approach immigration and would it be different from rUK?

 

Scotland may be less appealing as an immigration destination as NOT part of UK.

It also risks doing an Ireland- ie becomes independant from UK, but as soon as tough times hit the educated young leave and move to the UK

[Gabriel]

A yes vote will not change that

Cuts will happen,

Indie Scotland runs a deficit

It may not have occured but the massive cost of Trident is spread across the entire UK, but MOST of the benefit will be in Scotland.

Trident is good for us on that basis

 

I didn't say it would and, of course, if Scotland chose Independence, it would have to negotiate its share of the deficit and tackle it as it sees fit.

 

I never mentioned Trident, though if Scotland does choose Independence, I'll be fascinated to see where the programme is rehoused. It could be that they are rehoused in the US, and that the rUK might not have the capability or desire to take them.

[RosscoC]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29169114

 

So what's he lied about?

[The People's Chimp]

Ah, but devolution wouldn't let you legislate on some areas. Eg immigration, or say Scotland wanted to legalise cannabis? I'm sure these would be matters kept by Westminster.

 

I know, it was more of a lighthearted dig at how much an indy scotland might want to share with rUK really.

 

FWIW Immigration is an issue which would be, without doubt, better in Indy scotland. But even there there may be restrictions, especially on the jam tomorrow white paper's immigration promises which would be impossible if there was a common travel area IMO.

[The People's Chimp]

Scotland may be less appealing as an immigration destination as NOT part of UK.

It also risks doing an Ireland- ie becomes independant from UK, but as soon as tough times hit the educated young leave and move to the UK

 

Scotland with a positive immigration policy - which would be needed - would be hugely popular as an immigration destination. Not only would more liberal policies be an attraction, but the ability to obtain a scottish passport, and thus entry to the EU/rUK (i.e. London) job market would be a huge attraction. The new Immigration Act 2014 is horrendous and designed to create a near impossible situation for irregular migrants. Why wouldn't they be attracted to a more liberal set up north of the border?

[deesidejambo]

Scotland may be less appealing as an immigration destination as NOT part of UK.

It also risks doing an Ireland- ie becomes independant from UK, but as soon as tough times hit the educated young leave and move to the UK

 

The young Irish don't move because of tough times, they move anyway as there is little to keep ambitious young professionals in Ireland. Scotland will be the same as our youth head south for bigger opportunities.

[Nookie Bear]

Scotland with a positive immigration policy - which would be needed - would be hugely popular as an immigration destination. Not only would more liberal policies be an attraction, but the ability to obtain a scottish passport, and thus entry to the EU/rUK (i.e. London) job market would be a huge attraction. The new Immigration Act 2014 is horrendous and designed to create a near impossible situation for irregular migrants. Why wouldn't they be attracted to a more liberal set up north of the border?

 

Do Scots want Indy Scotland to be hugely popular as an immigration destination? And is immigration policy not going to change slightly depending on which ever party holds power?

[Boris]

How do you think Salmond/SNP/Indy Scotland would approach immigration and would it be different from rUK?

 

I think it's well documented that Scotland needs skilled immigrants to help the economy, however if immigration is under Westminster control then they can say who comes in and, fearful of over immigration in other parts of the UK, Scotland then gets left out.

 

So yes, I think Scottish policy would be different, in as much as it would be for what was in Scotland's best interests.

[Gabriel]

The young Irish don't move because of tough times, they move anyway as there is little to keep ambitious young professionals in Ireland. Scotland will be the same as our youth head south for bigger opportunities.

 

I appreciate that statistics are always debatable, but there does seem to be some connection between 'tough times' in Ireland. There will be people on here better placed to advise us.

 

 

Site link

http://emn.ie/emn/statistics

[doctor jambo]

On radio Scotland this am

 

Part of new state application to join the EU , under the Lisbon Treaty, is a commitment to the Euro.

So that is that

IF Scotland applies for membership as a new country, it is the Euro we will have

[The People's Chimp]

 

 

Do Scots want Indy Scotland to be hugely popular as an immigration destination? And is immigration policy not going to change slightly depending on which ever party holds power?

 

As Boris has said - it would have to be. What form it took would obviously be a matter for whichever flavour of Government was in power.

[Nookie Bear]

I think it's well documented that Scotland needs skilled immigrants to help the economy, however if immigration is under Westminster control then they can say who comes in and, fearful of over immigration in other parts of the UK, Scotland then gets left out.

 

So yes, I think Scottish policy would be different, in as much as it would be for what was in Scotland's best interests.

 

Quickly Googles, ahem researched, a couple of things and there is doubt whether an open border between Scotland and England can be maintained if the two nations have a significantly different immigration policy.

 

But even I will admit that is scare-mongery!

[DETTY29]

 

 

There is little doubt that Scotland would be able to have its own lottery. But if Salmond wants a fairer society he should not have it, as the lottery is far from "fair" - its a simple stealth tax on gamblers.

 

So much for fairer society

So Dexter should pull his daughter out of the lottery funded after school activity on a point of principle?

[deesidejambo]

I appreciate that statistics are always debatable, but there does seem to be some connection between 'tough times' in Ireland. There will be people on here better placed to advise us.

 

 

Site link

http://emn.ie/emn/statistics

 

Nice plot - it shows the level of emigration from Ireland keeps on rising regardless, whch is what I meant. Its the level of immigration that fluctuates due to the economic situation.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

On radio Scotland this am

 

Part of new state application to join the EU , under the Lisbon Treaty, is a commitment to the Euro.

So that is that

IF Scotland applies for membership as a new country, it is the Euro we will have

If Scotland applies, it needs a central bank with a currency to join ERM II.

 

 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Nice plot - it shows the level of emigration from Ireland keeps on rising regardless, whch is what I meant. Its the level of immigration that fluctuates due to the economic situation.

Much of that emigration increase was the return of the earlier immigrants when Ireland went tits up.

[deesidejambo]

So Dexter should pull his daughter out of the lottery funded after school activity on a point of principle?

 

Depends on your principles I guess. I personally have no problem with a lottery as it increases Gov't coffers without me contributing. So in a sense it isnt fair, but on the other hand its a voluntary tax.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Quickly Googles, ahem researched, a couple of things and there is doubt whether an open border between Scotland and England can be maintained if the two nations have a significantly different immigration policy.

 

But even I will admit that is scare-mongery!

It would depend how different.

 

Even then, so what if there were border posts?

[deesidejambo]

It would depend how different.

 

Even then, so what if there were border posts?

 

Two countries with two different migration policies would obviously need border posts to manage. Also the illegal immigrants would need to be controlled - at the moment they get stuck in Calais but they would have another "in" to rUK if allowed in via Scotland, either by legal migration, or otherwise. No doubt Mr Farage will comment on this as it plays into UKIP hands.

[djf]

It's unlikely that the immigration programme implemented by an indy Scotland would bring in the kind of people who would be prepared to attempt to illegally enter and reside in another country. Certainly not in any kind of quantity that there would be political will in England to erect border posts.

 

It's a bad argument for No to take on. They don't win votes on it and look absurdist.

[rossthejambo]

Two countries with two different migration policies would obviously need border posts to manage. Also the illegal immigrants would need to be controlled - at the moment they get stuck in Calais but they would have another "in" to rUK if allowed in via Scotland, either by legal migration, or otherwise. No doubt Mr Farage will comment on this as it plays into UKIP hands.

 

How are they going to get into Scotland on the sly though? There's no ferry routes from mainland Europe into Scotland just now and they're not exactly going to be able to stowaway on a plane.

 

I don't really see the problem in border posts if absolutely required, obviously not ideal but if nothing it would create jobs.

 

To be completely honest this does read as another fear tactic being implemented by the no campaign to try and play on the whole anti-immigration nonsense that's going around just now.

Edited September 12, 2014 by rossthejambo

[BoJack Horseman]

Anecdotal of course, but if I were to guess the outcome of this referendum from vocal support in the streets, and the people I've spoken to, it would be Yes by a landslide. The media is less heavily weighted toward Yes, but then a lot of that is coming from the English, who have no votes.

 

I've seen a few on here imply their experience is the opposite, and they've come across more No voters than Yes. Where are you guys based?

[BoJack Horseman]

How are they going to get into Scotland on the sly though? There's no ferry routes from mainland Europe into Scotland just now and they're not exactly going to be able to stowaway on a plane.

 

I don't really see the problem in border posts if absolutely required, obviously not ideal but if nothing it would create jobs.

 

To be completely honest this does read as another fear tactic being implemented by the no campaign to try and play on the whole anti-immigration nonsense that's going around just now.

 

You mean this isn't an accurate representation of a post-independent Scottish border?

 

[rossthejambo]

Anecdotal of course, but if I were to guess the outcome of this referendum from vocal support in the streets, and the people I've spoken to, it would be Yes by a landslide. The media is less heavily weighted toward Yes, but then a lot of that is coming from the English, who have no votes.

 

I've seen a few on here imply their experience is the opposite, and they've come across more No voters than Yes. Where are you guys based?

 

I'm in Edinburgh but I work in the financial sector, it's almost all No's here. Having said that, my mates that don't work with me are probably more weighted towards Yes, although it's a bit more even.

[Guest GhostHunter]

How are they going to get into Scotland on the sly though? There's no ferry routes from mainland Europe into Scotland just now and they're not exactly going to be able to stowaway on a plane.

 

I don't really see the problem in border posts if absolutely required, obviously not ideal but if nothing it would create jobs.

 

To be completely honest this does read as another fear tactic being implemented by the no campaign to try and play on the whole anti-immigration nonsense that's going around just now.

 

What happened to the Rosyth to Zebrugge route ?