Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Thunderstruck]

I can't see why Yes thought that was a triumph. The kids were the winners with Ruth Davidson a close second.

[TheMaganator]

Galloway's closing statement was ridiculous, and the irony from him was quite something else. Did someone from the No campaign think it was a good idea to have him there?

Not really. Why shouldn't we remember past endeavours?

[Walter Bishop]

A comfortable victory for the No campaign tonight. Sturgeon/Salmond can never answer a question properly and always try to work a way round the truth, that will be their downfall. Once again Ruth Davidson was excellent.

[TheMaganator]

YouGov got No ahead again

52/48

+3/-3

 

That was short lived

[rossthejambo]

 

 

Not really. Why shouldn't we remember past endeavours?

 

Continually bringing up the war does nothing for me, this is about the future, not reminiscing about the past. Might as well have discussed the glory days of the British Empire.

 

[TheMaganator]

I can't see why Yes thought that was a triumph. The kids were the winners with Ruth Davidson a close second.

 

Yes claim a triumph for anything.

 

If they lose next week they'll claim a victory for getting close

[TheMaganator]

 

 

 

Continually bringing up the war does nothing for me, this is about the future, not reminiscing about the past. Might as well have discussed the glory days of the British Empire.

Yet we hear about Thatcher, the poll tax & the Tories all the time.

 

The past makes us who we are today.

[RosscoC]

A comfortable victory for the No campaign tonight. Sturgeon/Salmond can never answer a question properly and always try to work a way round the truth, that will be their downfall. Once again Ruth Davidson was excellent.

 

I liked the bit when Ruth Davisdson criticised the Scottish Government for privatising the NHS. Classic.

[rossthejambo]

 

YouGov got No ahead again

52/48

+3/-3

 

That was short lived

 

I look forward to the in depth analysis of the shares/pound value in the media tomorrow.

 

[graygo]

YouGov got No ahead again

52/48

+3/-3

 

That was short lived

 

So going by the margin for error it could actually be 49/51

 

 

Yes claim a triumph for anything.

 

If they lose next week they'll claim a victory for getting close

 

The fact that it is so close is a damning indictment for the current Union.

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

 

 

Yes claim a triumph for anything.

 

If they lose next week they'll claim a victory for getting close

 

They will and so they should. As recently as 25 years ago folk who campaigned for independence were seen as fringe crackpots. That we are now seven days away from a razor thin referendum vote is extraordinary. Given the demographics involved, whatever the result next week is just another step towards inevitable constitutional change.

[Guest C00l K1d]

But the polls aren't accurate right?

[rossthejambo]

 

 

Yet we hear about Thatcher, the poll tax & the Tories all the time.

 

The past makes us who we are today.

 

Talking about the Tories is a bit more relevant than talking about Nazi Germany tbh.

 

Either way, I prefer the talk about the future rather than this pining to keep Britain together because we beat the Germans in the war. It's a daft argument IMO.

 

[GrimUpNorth]

Salmond trust rating down 4%. Gordon Brown's up by 3% since Sept 5th. According to yougov.

 

Is Gordon Brown getting through to undecided and soft yes Labour voters ?

[Ulysses]

YouGov got No ahead again

52/48

+3/-3

 

That was short lived

 

The overall total across the seven polls since the second debate is Yes 48.2%, No 51.8%.

 

That's a statistical dead heat, and this race is going right down to the wire.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

 

I look forward to the in depth analysis of the shares/pound value in the media tomorrow.

Jump in value probably because they were oversold in the first place.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Salmond trust rating down 4%. Gordon Brown's up by 3% since Sept 5th. According to yougov.

 

Is Gordon Brown getting through to undecided and soft yes Labour voters ?

Did McRuin start on zero?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

But the polls aren't accurate right?

The polls are within the same margin of error. It doesn't make the same headlines as when Yes nudge ahead though.

[IMac]

 

 

The overall total across the seven polls since the second debate is Yes 48.2%, No 51.8%.

 

That's a statistical dead heat, and this race is going right down to the wire.

 

how can thatebe true? data please.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Going to come down to who gets the vote out best .

[IMac]

.

Edited September 11, 2014 by IMac

[Yoda]

 

Yes claim a triumph for anything.

 

If they lose next week they'll claim a victory for getting close

 

[modedit]

[Hasselhoff]

Was annoyed nicola didn't get to explain why she disagreed with the IFC report today about NHS spending being less in Scotland than in England.

 

They would argue black is white if it meant they could get independence

[Randy Marsh]

They will and so they should. As recently as 25 years ago folk who campaigned for independence were seen as fringe crackpots. That we are now seven days away from a razor thin referendum vote is extraordinary. Given the demographics involved, whatever the result next week is just another step towards inevitable constitutional change.

 

Agreed.

 

Its a shame that the No campaign had to resort to dirty tactics to try and scrape over the line first. I was really enjoying the whole debate up until that point.

[FWJ]

Just watched BBC1 10 O'Clock News. Jeez - I can see why some 'yes' people are complaining of BBC bias - especially that Nick Robinson.

Edited September 11, 2014 by FWJ

[TheMaganator]

 

 

The overall total across the seven polls since the second debate is Yes 48.2%, No 51.8%.

 

That's a statistical dead heat, and this race is going right down to the wire.

Yes. But at this stage are we not meant to say that the momentum is with No?

 

[Guest C00l K1d]

Just watched BBC1 10 O'Clock News. Jeez - I can see why some 'yes' people are complaining of BBC bias - especially that Nick Robinson.

Glad i wasn't the only one who thought that.

 

BBC went full on vote no mode.

[Ulysses]

how can thatebe true? data please.

 

How can it not be true? Those are the numbers excluding the undecideds.

 

Leaving aside the fact that you can look the data up for yourself, why do you think it's not true? One poll had Yes ahead 51-49, and the other six all had Yes behind by 47-53, 48-52 or 49-51. Before you even crunch the numbers, doesn't logic tell you that overall, Yes has to score somewhere between 47 and 51, but probably closer to 47-48, while No has to score somewhere between 49 and 53, but probably closer to 52-53?

 

The latest YouGov 48-52 poll isn't at the link below, but the other six are. Excluding undecideds, the overall score for those six is 48.2 v 51.8. Another poll with 48-52 added in to that won't change the overall position.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014

[jambogaza]

Can any of these polls really capture the potential outcome of a vote likely to involved 80-90% of the electorate? this seems even more so considering that the 80-90% includes people who the polling companies can't get near.

[Gabriel]

 

 

The polls are within the same margin of error. It doesn't make the same headlines as when Yes nudge ahead though.

 

It certainly makes it harder to run armageddon stories if the polls continue showing a slight lead to 'No'.

[Chaka Demus & pliers]

Ruth Davidson repeatedly lied about what Standard Life's statement said, claiming that they said they'd be moving 5000 jobs South.

 

She either lied or isn't clever enough to understand what the statement said.

[Ulysses]

Yes. But at this stage are we not meant to say that the momentum is with No?

 

No, of course not. There has been a marked shift to Yes over the last couple of weeks. At this point that may have stabilised, but we can't say for certain. AFAIK there are 2 polls due in the next couple of days, once each from Ipsos MORI and ICM, and we should have a better idea after they come out.

[Thunderstruck]

Had the opportunity to hear Prof Niall Ferguson (you'll know him from his TV series) earlier tonight at Glasgow Uni. He is an unashamed unionist and was putting the case for the union in the penultimate of a series of lectures.

 

His view, as expected, had a historic perspective but was direct and cutting. Highlighting the cant of

Yes on everything from the Clearances to Empire to Thatcher and the Britain of today. Telling us not to believe the notion of a poor benighted Scotland but to have a look and see what we have and how much we have improved our lot in our own lifetimes. Telling us not to risk it on the false promises of the Yes campaign.

 

His view is that Scots are, by nature, internationalists and not narrow-minded nationalists. That is why we have led the way in so many countries and the Scottish Diaspora is an important section of countries like the US, Canada and Australia. Contrary to the myth, the majority went willingly and wasted no time in taking charge. Scots were in the engine room and on the bridge of Empire and we continue to punch above our weight in governance of the UK.

 

Needless to say, the Yes campaigners turned out to heckle but they, I think, were stunned by the adverse reaction to them and several left early. The Q&A was thereafter fairly civilised. Some excellent questions (for Yes and No) but all answered expertly. The applause at the end was the most rousing of any of these lectures.

 

[TheMaganator]

Had the opportunity to hear Prof Niall Ferguson (you'll know him from his TV series) earlier tonight at Glasgow Uni. He is an unashamed unionist and was putting the case for the union in the penultimate of a series of lectures.

 

His view, as expected, had a historic perspective but was direct and cutting. Highlighting the cant of

Yes on everything from the Clearances to Empire to Thatcher and the Britain of today. Telling us not to believe the notion of a poor benighted Scotland but to have a look and see what we have and how much we have improved our lot in our own lifetimes. Telling us not to risk it on the false promises of the Yes campaign.

 

His view is that Scots are, by nature, internationalists and not narrow-minded nationalists. That is why we have led the way in so many countries and the Scottish Diaspora is an important section of countries like the US, Canada and Australia. Contrary to the myth, the majority went willingly and wasted no time in taking charge. Scots were in the engine room and on the bridge of Empire and we continue to punch above our weight in governance of the UK.

 

Needless to say, the Yes campaigners turned out to heckle but they, I think, were stunned by the adverse reaction to them and several left early. The Q&A was thereafter fairly civilised. Some excellent questions (for Yes and No) but all answered expertly. The applause at the end was the most rousing of any of these lectures.

Good to hear. We need more of these bright guys who are able to articulate their love of Union front and centre!

[Gorgiewave]

What was the "rape" comment?

[TheMaganator]

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5804192

 

I didn't get the chance to watch the Salmond video earlier. Here it is.

 

He's packed an international press conference with his own supporters who clap his answers

 

At a press conference

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

Wee question for No voters - would you be in favour of ending the distinction between Scotland/England/Wales/N.Ireland and just being one country, United Kingdom? And if not, why not?

[DETTY29]

Just watched BBC1 10 O'Clock News. Jeez - I can see why some 'yes' people are complaining of BBC bias - especially that Nick Robinson.

That edit bore no resemblence to what was said / happened.

 

Indeed instead of reminding Salmond at the time that he hasn't answered one of the questions, he went over old ground that Salmond had swatted him away with initially.

 

Maybe not giving him credit and BBC political correspondents are as devious as the politicians themselves.

[TheMaganator]

 

 

No, of course not. There has been a marked shift to Yes over the last couple of weeks. At this point that may have stabilised, but we can't say for certain. AFAIK there are 2 polls due in the next couple of days, once each from Ipsos MORI and ICM, and we should have a better idea after they come out.

I was kidding!

 

Still - up on the last YouGov which I'll take. ICM out tomorrow I believe

[jambo1185]

So is Sturgeon just sayitng that the IFS are wrong then?

[Nookie Bear]

 

 

So going by the margin for error it could actually be 49/51

 

 

 

The fact that it is so close is a damning indictment for the current Union.

 

But hardly a ringing mandate for Independence either.

[TheMaganator]

Wee question for No voters - would you be in favour of ending the distinction between Scotland/England/Wales/N.Ireland and just being one country, United Kingdom? And if not, why not?

Nope.

 

Just because you're in a union does not mean you lose your individual identity.

 

Or are you and your bird the same entity?

[Ulysses]

Can any of these polls really capture the potential outcome of a vote likely to involved 80-90% of the electorate?

 

Yes. There's a long answer as well, but yes. There are issues with single-issue once-off votes like this, but the overwhelming evidence is that opinion polls of 1,000 or so people are a very good method of predicting how a nationwide vote will go.

 

The problem with a referendum where the vote might be tight is that a 3% margin of error means that any poll showing 47-53 or closer is a statistical dead heat - so an opinion poll might be technically correct but still get the winner wrong.

 

Have a look at this page. It shows the last nine opinion polls before the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. As it happens, some of these polls had bigger samples (up to 2,700 people), but the principle is the same. Although two polls got it wrong by showing Obama behind, eight of the nine polls predicted both Obama's and Romney's vote percentages to within the margin of error.

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1171.html

 

 

For an even clearer example, see this page dealing with the last 15 polls before the 2008 election. All 15 predicted Obama's percentage correctly to within the margin of error; 14 of the 15 predicted McCain's.

 

http://www.realclear..._obama-225.html

[Thunderstruck]

 

 

No, of course not. There has been a marked shift to Yes over the last couple of weeks. At this point that may have stabilised, but we can't say for certain. AFAIK there are 2 polls due in the next couple of days, once each from Ipsos MORI and ICM, and we should have a better idea after they come out.

 

I have to disagree (slightly). John Curtice, the pre-eminent psephologist in the country spoke on this for over an hour last Tuesday. His view was that the underlying trend has only narrowed marginally - based on unpicking the results and reanalysing with weighting to iron out inconsistencies in questions. This was reinforced by other, independent research on larger groups.

 

It also seems as if some polls had attempted correction to bring themselves into the pack and might have over-corrected.

 

My Yes-inclined colleague was quite subdued at the end as it seemed like last weekend's poll was a false dawn.

 

The poll since then has reinforced the analysis and it looks like the next will follow suit.

[TheMaganator]

 

 

Yes. There's a long answer as well, but yes. There are issues with single-issue once-off votes like this, but the overwhelming evidence is that opinion polls of 1,000 or so people are a very good method of predicting how a nationwide vote will go.

 

The problem with a referendum where the vote might be tight is that a 3% margin of error means that any poll showing 47-53 or closer is a statistical dead heat - so an opinion poll might be technically correct but still get the winner wrong.

 

Have a look at this page. It shows the last nine opinion polls before the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. As it happens, some of these polls had bigger samples (up to 2,700 people), but the principle is the same. Although two polls got it wrong by showing Obama behind, eight of the nine polls predicted both Obama's and Romney's vote percentages to within the margin of error.

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1171.html

 

 

For an even clearer example, see this page dealing with the last 15 polls before the 2008 election. All 15 predicted Obama's percentage correctly to within the margin of error; 14 of the 15 predicted McCain's.

 

http://www.realclear..._obama-225.html

So when the polls have it this close at this stage it's impossible to predict?

 

If No is ahead in the 52/48 range for all the polls until the referendum Yes could still win (having only been ahead in one poll in the months leading up to the vote)?

[GrimUpNorth]

 

Yes. There's a long answer as well, but yes. There are issues with single-issue once-off votes like this, but the overwhelming evidence is that opinion polls of 1,000 or so people are a very good method of predicting how a nationwide vote will go.

 

The problem with a referendum where the vote might be tight is that a 3% margin of error means that any poll showing 47-53 or closer is a statistical dead heat - so an opinion poll might be technically correct but still get the winner wrong.

 

Have a look at this page. It shows the last nine opinion polls before the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. As it happens, some of these polls had bigger samples (up to 2,700 people), but the principle is the same. Although two polls got it wrong by showing Obama behind, eight of the nine polls predicted both Obama's and Romney's vote percentages to within the margin of error.

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1171.html

 

 

For an even clearer example, see this page dealing with the last 15 polls before the 2008 election. All 15 predicted Obama's percentage correctly to within the margin of error; 14 of the 15 predicted McCain's.

 

http://www.realclear..._obama-225.html

Those are elections though. Is there not a difference with this referendum, with what's looking like a huge turnout, it's completely unchartered waters for these polling companies.

 

I'm guessing here, but how are these polling companies reaching the poorest, who are looking likely to turn out more than any other election, or 16-17 year olds ?

[Don Draper]

They will and so they should. As recently as 25 years ago folk who campaigned for independence were seen as fringe crackpots. That we are now seven days away from a razor thin referendum vote is extraordinary. Given the demographics involved, whatever the result next week is just another step towards inevitable constitutional change.

 

Very much this.

[TheMaganator]

Wait a second - if RBS move their HQs to England where will they pay their tax?

[Boris]

Wait a second - if RBS move their HQs to England where will they pay their tax?

 

Surely you watched Salmond hand Nick Robinson his Arse. Unless it was on the BBC news at 10, of course.

[hughesie27]

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5804192

 

I didn't get the chance to watch the Salmond video earlier. Here it is.

 

He's packed an international press conference with his own supporters who clap his answers

 

At a press conference

As opposed to what Cameron and Miliband and Brown done yesterday? It's a logical tactic. I hope you were listening to his answers and now waiting for the faux applause?

 

Unfortunately the media rules the day again and only a handful of folk will realise the significance of todays lies..