Estate Agents! Advice....

[coppercrutch]

Coppercrutch I have really enjoyed this thread over the past few weeks, particularly the 'banter' between you and Chip, hilarious at times !!

 

However, there is no way on earth that house prices in Edinburgh and the surrounding areas are going to be sitting at 30-50% below current levels in 5 years time, by this logic a house valued today at ?300k will be on the market in Spring 2013 for at most ?210k or as little as ?150k, sorry just can't see it

 

A wee suggestion why don't you and Chip have a wee spread bet for charity, get the average house price today minus 30% and use this as the start for the spread and let say ?10 per point, if houses fall 40% in five years Chip gives a ?100 to charity (He won't lose IMHO) however, if they only fall say 10% you would need to pay ?200....

 

Have you read what I have explained about inflation ? If property prices stay at todays level and don't drop a penny - they will have lost 30% of their value in 6 years (Depending on the inflation rate). People don't understand this. I have no idea why, it is fairly simple. Your house has to increase in price by about 5% per year JUST TO RETAIN ITS VALUE !!!

 

They will fall by 30-50%. No question about that. It is now simply interesting to see how it pans out. Nominal falls or real falls. I imagine a mix of both.

 

Since Last July prices have fallen from 228 to 210. That is about 8%. Add to that the RPI inflation figure over the same period (circa4.2%) and Edinburgh prices/values have ALREADY FALLEN ABOUT 12% !!!!

 

And all this without people even knowing it. Considering this you really think 30%+ is out of the question.

 

Nice you have enjoyed this thread though !!! Good someone is listening.

 

And I wont be making a bet with Chip. Simply like taking candy from a baby.

[neobis]

Coppercrutch I have really enjoyed this thread over the past few weeks, particularly the 'banter' between you and Chip, hilarious at times !!

 

However, there is no way on earth that house prices in Edinburgh and the surrounding areas are going to be sitting at 30-50% below current levels in 5 years time, by this logic a house valued today at ?300k will be on the market in Spring 2013 for at most ?210k or as little as ?150k, sorry just can't see it

 

A wee suggestion why don't you and Chip have a wee spread bet for charity, get the average house price today minus 30% and use this as the start for the spread and let say ?10 per point, if houses fall 40% in five years Chip gives a ?100 to charity (He won't lose IMHO) however, if they only fall say 10% you would need to pay ?200....

 

I think you should have a look here:

 

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/

[The Old Tolbooth]

Must be tough times for yourself.

 

To be honest Dave, I'm only doing mortgages as and when they come along now, I'm not even looking for them unless it's BTL.

 

I've had to look at other income streams within the industry, which look like becoming far more profitable than mortgages ever could be, the payment for placing a mortgage is pants these days!

[The Old Tolbooth]

I had a very informal chat with an estate agent today.

 

They seemed to think I would have no problem selling my place (2 bedroom tenement flat in Falkirk) this summer, it's just that what might have taken 6 weeks before might take more like 3 months. They certainly don't expect my place to be worth less now than it was in November/December - quite the opposite.

 

There's alot of scaremongering going on and I have to admit I was anxious about the prospect of selling my place this summer if work takes me to London. After doing a little digging myself I am feeling very reassured.

 

You could always let your lender know what your intentions are and enquire about the possibility of changing your mortgage conditions to a buy to let mortgage. That way you avoid any redemption penalties for paying off your mortgage early that will probably be a condition in your original mortgage offer mate.

 

It should be very easy to let out a property nowadays cos less and less people can get a mortgage, and it means that if things don't work out for you down South, then you don't have to start again on the property ladder as you have your current property to fall back on.

 

Plus, you've just decorated the damn place lol!!!!

[blairdin]

Just a quick note Blairdin. I assume you are aware that prices have shot up in Falkirk over the past few years ? Much has been due to people getting into Buy to let. Their favourite property is a 2 bed flat. Now BTL is effectively dead. So quite possibly half* of those who would be looking to buy your flat are now out of the market. It is clear what the result will be. After a quick look it seems the average price for a 2 bed flat is about 90-100k in Falkirk ? Now that is not as overpriced as in Edinburgh. Bit then no offence but Falkirk is not exactly the nicest place. What would the average salary be ? Maybe 20k ish. So to buy a 2 bed flat in Falkirk costs about 4-5 times the average salary. That is way out of sync with the long term average. (Probably 2-3 times salary for a basic 2 bed flat)

 

Be smart and cut the price a little to get out before the rest wake up to reality. Good luck. I mean that.

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article3818913.ece

 

* My rough guestimate.

 

First and foremost, I don't particularly like estate agents. Unfortunately, you just have to see through their inevitable sales pitch and try to untangle the facts.

 

Falkirk prices have shot up hugely in recent years but are still affordable to most who would opt to live here. It is now very much a commuter town full of people (like me) who have been priced out of Edinburgh and Glasgow or want to hedge their bets career wise so have Glasgow and Edinburgh as work options. I see that every day at any of the Falkirk railway stations - I bet the increase in passenger numbers on the central Scotland rail lines in the last few years would reflect this. Let's face it, Scotrail wouldn't be wasting time trying to figure out how to squeeze 3 more trains per hour on the overcrowded line between Polmont and Haymarket - the problematic bottleneck. John Findlay might know more about this.

 

I think you're a bit optimistic with your guesstimate of value. I would expect my place or any place like it here to sell for between ?73k to ?78k. This is based on a flat in my tenement selling for ?73k in December. At the very least I would expect the same. Hope for slightly more based on the fact I've recently installed a new kitchen and bathroom.

 

You need to take into account local factors. Huge developments of new build luxury appartments in Larbert (which continue to sell out as quickly as they are thrown up) probably artificially inflate the value of places like mine.

 

Me deciding whether I sell my place will depend on job interviews/negotiations I have in June this year. The stability or otherwise of the market will not affect that. Now, that is scary. But there will always be people who move home because they have to, so there will always be a market, albeit a slow one.

 

Having said all that, if pushed I would predict that my flat is still most likely to be picked up by a buy-to-let investor in this area. I imagine (perhaps wrongly) that, whilst having trouble getting mortgages, they generally have access to enough capital for a modest place like mine. This area is saturated with alot of skilled workers who don't come from / live here - Grangemouth, Alexander-Dennis, the new Forth Valley Hospital development - but need Monday to Friday accomodation.

 

I'm not an expert but in my view values anywhere in Scotland won't drop here and now in real terms. They will drop over a period of time ahead from now when house prices don't increase at the same rate as inflation. There will be a slowdown - it's started - but not a sudden bust in my opinion. I don't expect anyone to be left in negative equity from a mortgage (so obviously excluding personal debt such as unsecured loans, credit cards et all) due to the current bust. People just won't rake in huge amounts of cash in a relatively short term.

 

That will mean the challenge for people like me in 5 years time would be finding enough money to have a decent deposit for the next house up the ladder.

[blairdin]

You could always let your lender know what your intentions are and enquire about the possibility of changing your mortgage conditions to a buy to let mortgage. That way you avoid any redemption penalties for paying off your mortgage early that will probably be a condition in your original mortgage offer mate.

 

It should be very easy to let out a property nowadays cos less and less people can get a mortgage, and it means that if things don't work out for you down South, then you don't have to start again on the property ladder as you have your current property to fall back on.

 

Plus, you've just decorated the damn place lol!!!!

 

Tell me about it - I've not even spectacularly burnt anything in my new kitchen yet!!

 

Alot of those things have gone through my mind, but if this new job comes off then I would imagine employing someone like yourself to help me identify the best way to do it.

 

I'd be one grumpy tosser of a landlord though...even from 465 miles away!!

[coppercrutch]

First and foremost, I don't particularly like estate agents. Unfortunately, you just have to see through their inevitable sales pitch and try to untangle the facts.

 

Falkirk prices have shot up hugely in recent years but are still affordable to most who would opt to live here. It is now very much a commuter town full of people (like me) who have been priced out of Edinburgh and Glasgow or want to hedge their bets career wise so have Glasgow and Edinburgh as work options. I see that every day at any of the Falkirk railway stations - I bet the increase in passenger numbers on the central Scotland rail lines in the last few years would reflect this. Let's face it, Scotrail wouldn't be wasting time trying to figure out how to squeeze 3 more trains per hour on the overcrowded line between Polmont and Haymarket - the problematic bottleneck. John Findlay might know more about this.

 

I think you're a bit optimistic with your guesstimate of value. I would expect my place or any place like it here to sell for between ?73k to ?78k. This is based on a flat in my tenement selling for ?73k in December. At the very least I would expect the same. Hope for slightly more based on the fact I've recently installed a new kitchen and bathroom.

 

You need to take into account local factors. Huge developments of new build luxury appartments in Larbert (which continue to sell out as quickly as they are thrown up) probably artificially inflate the value of places like mine.

 

Me deciding whether I sell my place will depend on job interviews/negotiations I have in June this year. The stability or otherwise of the market will not affect that. Now, that is scary. But there will always be people who move home because they have to, so there will always be a market, albeit a slow one.

 

Having said all that, if pushed I would predict that my flat is still most likely to be picked up by a buy-to-let investor in this area. I imagine (perhaps wrongly) that, whilst having trouble getting mortgages, they generally have access to enough capital for a modest place like mine. This area is saturated with alot of skilled workers who don't come from / live here - Grangemouth, Alexander-Dennis, the new Forth Valley Hospital development - but need Monday to Friday accomodation.

 

I'm not an expert but in my view values anywhere in Scotland won't drop here and now in real terms. They will drop over a period of time ahead from now when house prices don't increase at the same rate as inflation. There will be a slowdown - it's started - but not a sudden bust in my opinion. I don't expect anyone to be left in negative equity from a mortgage (so obviously excluding personal debt such as unsecured loans, credit cards et all) due to the current bust. People just won't rake in huge amounts of cash in a relatively short term.

 

That will mean the challenge for people like me in 5 years time would be finding enough money to have a decent deposit for the next house up the ladder.

 

Your values do surprise me a little. Does seem indeed that prices in Falkirk are definitely not as hyped as Edinburgh. Considering that ,as you have said, the drops will probably be far smaller. As for people not ending up in negative equity that may be the case for most people in Falkirk. I imagine in Edinburgh however there are thousands of people in negative equity already. They just don't know it. Some people have recently spent close to 150k for a one bed flat in Granton or Leith. If their LTV is anymore than 80% I think they are in negative equity already. Interesting times ahead !!

 

As you say BTL may still just work in Falkirk. It must be right on the bone though. In Edinburgh however BTL is dead. The numbers simply don't add up. Unless you ply 50% or so into it from the start.

 

With all these people jumping ship where are the buyers for overpriced flats going to come from ?

 

You only have to do an ESPC search on Gorgie or Dalry flats to see the trouble people are having selling a one bed flat. A year ago they would have been sold in a matter of days. Now it goes from offers over to fixed price and can still be sitting there for months on end.

 

BTW why are you considering moving to London, job or no job it is a hellhole !!

[blairdin]

Your values do surprise me a little. Does seem indeed that prices in Falkirk are definitely not as hyped as Edinburgh. Considering that ,as you have said, the drops will probably be far smaller. As for people not ending up in negative equity that may be the case for most people in Falkirk. I imagine in Edinburgh however there are thousands of people in negative equity already. They just don't know it. Some people have recently spent close to 150k for a one bed flat in Granton or Leith. If their LTV is anymore than 80% I think they are in negative equity already. Interesting times ahead !!

 

As you say BTL may still just work in Falkirk. It must be right on the bone though. In Edinburgh however BTL is dead. The numbers simply don't add up. Unless you ply 50% or so into it from the start.

 

With all these people jumping ship where are the buyers for overpriced flats going to come from ?

 

You only have to do an ESPC search on Gorgie or Dalry flats to see the trouble people are having selling a one bed flat. A year ago they would have been sold in a matter of days. Now it goes from offers over to fixed price and can still be sitting there for months on end.

 

BTW why are you considering moving to London, job or no job it is a hellhole !!

 

Go and ask me something about economis or the housing market or something. I know eff all about them but they are easier...

 

Apparently London is where I need to go to further my career from where I am.

[Chip Douglas]

Have you read what I have explained about inflation ? If property prices stay at todays level and don't drop a penny - they will have lost 30% of their value in 6 years (Depending on the inflation rate). People don't understand this. I have no idea why, it is fairly simple. Your house has to increase in price by about 5% per year JUST TO RETAIN ITS VALUE !!!

 

They will fall by 30-50%. No question about that. It is now simply interesting to see how it pans out. Nominal falls or real falls. I imagine a mix of both.

 

Since Last July prices have fallen from 228 to 210. That is about 8%. Add to that the RPI inflation figure over the same period (circa4.2%) and Edinburgh prices/values have ALREADY FALLEN ABOUT 12% !!!!

 

And all this without people even knowing it. Considering this you really think 30%+ is out of the question.

 

Nice you have enjoyed this thread though !!! Good someone is listening.

 

And I wont be making a bet with Chip. Simply like taking candy from a baby.

 

Well, recent information released by Bank of Scotland at the end of March shows that the annual price rate inflation for properties in Scotland was 5.3% over the 12 month period to March 2008. This is a significant improvement on the position in England where they have experienced a meagre 1.1%.

 

Short term comparisons between Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 show a fairly hefty reduction of about 7.8% but my figures above, as I have been saying along, back up my assertion that Edinburgh, and the Scottish market as a whole, is more resilient.

 

Nationwide's figures show similar correlations in the 12 month period to date, 6.3% compared to 2.2% in England and wales.

 

Factor in the affordability element with houses in Scotland and we also sit favourably in the grand scheme of things (differential of about 30K when compared with England).

 

First time buyers can essentially forget it for the next 18 months or so (unless they've been playing it safe with Mummy and Daddy and have saved up a sizeable deposit) but for people trading up the property ladder, there's still activity out there.

 

Talk of 30-50% falls is nonsensical scaremongering, at least for the Edinburgh area, if not the Scottish market.

 

Coppercrutch, this whole debate has turned full circle, you're now the man towing the party line; it looks like I'm the one going "totally against the grain".

 

Looks like you've sold out.

 

[Sherlock]

Why thank you !!! There are a few of us on this site who have a clue !!

 

Still in the minority however. Slowly changing though.

 

My free education policy is slowly sinking in !!!

 

Self praise is no praise CC.

 

BTW, i'm as busy now as i've been in previous years so unless people are selling to just live in a cardboard box, someone somewhere must be lending money.

[coppercrutch]

Go and ask me something about economis or the housing market or something. I know eff all about them but they are easier...

 

Apparently London is where I need to go to further my career from where I am.

 

Fair dos. Good luck.

[coppercrutch]

Well, recent information released by Bank of Scotland at the end of March shows that the (1)annual price rate inflation for properties in Scotland was 5.3% over the 12 month period to March 2008. This is a significant improvement on the position in England where they have experienced a meagre 1.1%.

 

Short term comparisons between Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 show a fairly hefty reduction of about 7.8% but my figures above, as I have been saying along, back up my assertion that (2)Edinburgh, and the Scottish market as a whole, is more resilient.

 

Nationwide's figures show similar correlations in the 12 month period to date, 6.3% compared to 2.2% in England and wales.

 

(3)Factor in the affordability element with houses in Scotland and we also sit favourably in the grand scheme of things (differential of about 30K when compared with England).

 

First time buyers can essentially forget it for the next 18 months or so (unless they've been playing it safe with Mummy and Daddy and have saved up a sizeable deposit) (4)but for people trading up the property ladder, there's still activity out there.

(5)Talk of 30-50% falls is nonsensical scaremongering, at least for the Edinburgh area, if not the Scottish market.

 

Coppercrutch, this whole debate has turned full circle, (6)you're now the man towing the party line; it looks like I'm the one going "totally against the grain".

 

Looks like you've sold out.

 

 

(1) If you care more about the last 12 months than the next 12 months then fine. I prefer to live for today. Prices for Edinburgh last 4 quarters below.

 

228

222

215

210

 

Unless prices rise to theri highest level EVER in this quarter, which is pretty much guaranteed NOT TO HAPPEN, July will see the YOY figure for Edinburgh fall from +1.2% to -6ish%. Massive drop. Massive shockl to people who think this cannot happen in Edinburgh. How that affects people is anyones guess. It is not going to help 'pick things up' though is it....

 

(2) I agree that anywhere is Scotland that still has reasonable prices will e more resilient. Falkirk may be a good example. Edinburgh however is goosed.

 

Have a think about it. If property prices fall by 30% in England, but remain the sam eup here then Scotland becomes the most expensive place in the UK to buy a house !!! That is simply ridiculous. Those that think Scotland will somehow be detached from the rest of the UK are simply delusional.

 

(3) You decided to leave Edinburgh out of that equation !!! Edinburgh is one of the most overpriced places to live in the UK. Hence it will be one of the most hard hit. Pretty simple really.

 

(4) I agree. Of course there is still a market out there. People will always want to move house, or have to move house. However when you remove speculators and FTB from the equation you remove circa 50% of buyers ( Rough estimate). This will have a massive effect on prices. To think otherwise, again, you would have to be delusional.

 

(5) And what is talk of prices rising by 200% ? Would you not have to agree that is exactly the same ? Didn't stop it happening though did it. As i asked previously what is it to be. You can't have your cake and eat it. And I am sure there were very few people predicting 200% rises 8 years ago. But they happened anyway.

 

Also remember that % falls are far more weighted than % rises. If something rises by 100% it only has to fall by 50% to get back where it started. Again something that is not pointed out by people allegedally 'in the know'.

 

(6) You are a funny chap !! Nice to see the general population are starting to wake up to what myself and a small number of people have known for years. I am actually surprised by how quickly the worm has turned though.

 

12% already. Almost half way there and people haven't even got a clue it is happening.

 

30% real falls are 99.9 % guaranteed.

[coppercrutch]

Self praise is no praise CC.

 

BTW, i'm as busy now as i've been in previous years so unless people are selling to just live in a cardboard box, someone somewhere must be lending money.

 

Of course they are. They are just being picky about who they are lending too. Good thing.

 

And you may well be busy whatever it is you do. But for anyone who thinks Edinburgh is not tanking do the following:

 

(1)Open up the ESPC at the back for the listings

(2)Remember this is the busiest time of the year

(3)Remember that people only put properties on at fixed price if they are having trouble selling or need out very quick.

(4)Open you eyes and have a look at the circa 70% of properties that are down as fixed prices.

 

Then have a think about it. Digest what this means. It is very simple. There are a lot of properties up for sale, and very few people buying. This is all happening at the 'busy' time of year. It is only going to get worse. How will this affect prices..........

 

Not rocket science really.

[coppercrutch]

For all of you still doubting Edinburgh is crashing I have the following for you:

 

DJ Alexander is one of Edinburgh's largest letting/sales agencies. They are constantly talking up the Edinburgh market, usually through the Evening News and Scotsman.

 

 

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Housing-crisis-deepens-as-city.3953809.jp

 

"David Alexander, head of letting agent DJ Alexander, said that first-time buyers were facing the most expensive mortgages in seven and a half years.

 

He said: "The result is an increase in rental costs which is unprecedented in the 25-plus years in which I have been in this sector."

 

The firm, which advertises more than 1400 flats in Edinburgh every year, predicts the average rent for a two-bedroom flat could surge to ?1200 by next year."

 

Fine and dandy, you would of course expect these people to talk up things that affect their own income.

 

But then let us delve deeper into this. What other interests does DJ Alexander have ? How about this. He is on the management team of 'Heritors'. An Edinburgh based property development/management company..

 

http://www.heritors.com/who_we_are.htm#

 

Again no great surprise there. But then ask yourselves, have you not seen these Heritors for sale signs springing up all over town ? I have seen them all over the New Town. Strange that. Why would someone be telling you all is fine and dandy in the housing market, that it makes a good investment, and at the same time be selling their own properties.....I can't quite put my finger on it.......

 

A few examples below. Details are from an online property site that lets you see who has bought what and at what price. Very very useful. "Ourproperty.co.uk"

 

44 Cumberland Street Edinburgh:

 

Bought by Heritors 2 Ltd for ?300,000 on 27 Jan 2005.

Bought from K Butcher.

Now up for sale for offers over ?379,000

 

DJ Alexander

 

71 Cumberland Street Edinburgh:

 

Bought by Heritors Ltd for ?349,000 on 29 Oct 2004.

Bought from Grant Development Ltd.

Now up for sale for offers over ?385,000

 

DJ Alexanders

 

19 (1F1 or 2F1) North West Circus Lane Edinburgh

 

 

Bought by Heritors Ltd ?305,000 on 19 Nov 2004.

Bought from A Milne

Now up for sale for offers over ?375,000.

 

DJ Alexander

 

Now the interesting thing is that due to the YOY figures that people use prices can be falling for almost a year before the general public are ever aware. This of course leaves a nice little window for those 'in the know' to get out in front of the crowd. What I find very interesting is the prices these properties are up for.Considering these are in the most prestigious area of Edinburgh they don't seem to be planning to make a huge profit. A very clear sign they are just trying to get out as quick as possible. ESPC figures out on July 8ish...

 

Edinburgh is crashing. Those in the know are telling us, but you have to dig to work it out. Excellent.

[coppercrutch]

Thought I would pass on an update I got from a website I use:

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=8792

 

(Open using windows picture and fax viewer.)

 

 

Figures from the land registry of Scotland for Edinburgh sales:

 

2006 (jan-mar) ?153,596 14,260

2006 (apr-jun) ?167,634 3,258

2006 (jul-sep) ?174,521 8,828

2006 (oct-dec) ?175,666 5,218

2007 (jan-mar) ?167,033 1,160

2007 (apr-jun) ?186,955 3,475

2007 (jul-sep) ?248,498 4,366

2007 (oct-dec) ?230,681 3,709

2008 (jan-mar) ?213,351 4,189

 

Average sale price followed by number of sales.

 

The figures are on the BBC website.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/qp.stm

 

You can see the original reports on the link below. However these do not break it down into more than 'Lothian'. You have to pay for this breakdown information. However they provide this to the BBC and they show this as the link above.

 

http://www.ros.gov.uk/aboutus/pressreleases.html

 

Just thought all those saying prices in Edinburgh will not, and are not falling, may be interested in these details..............

[The Godfather]

For all of you still doubting Edinburgh is crashing I have the following for you:

 

DJ Alexander is one of Edinburgh's largest letting/sales agencies. They are constantly talking up the Edinburgh market, usually through the Evening News and Scotsman.

 

 

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Housing-crisis-deepens-as-city.3953809.jp

 

"David Alexander, head of letting agent DJ Alexander, said that first-time buyers were facing the most expensive mortgages in seven and a half years.

 

He said: "The result is an increase in rental costs which is unprecedented in the 25-plus years in which I have been in this sector."

 

The firm, which advertises more than 1400 flats in Edinburgh every year, predicts the average rent for a two-bedroom flat could surge to ?1200 by next year."

 

Fine and dandy, you would of course expect these people to talk up things that affect their own income.

 

But then let us delve deeper into this. What other interests does DJ Alexander have ? How about this. He is on the management team of 'Heritors'. An Edinburgh based property development/management company..

 

http://www.heritors.com/who_we_are.htm#

 

Again no great surprise there. But then ask yourselves, have you not seen these Heritors for sale signs springing up all over town ? I have seen them all over the New Town. Strange that. Why would someone be telling you all is fine and dandy in the housing market, that it makes a good investment, and at the same time be selling their own properties.....I can't quite put my finger on it.......

 

A few examples below. Details are from an online property site that lets you see who has bought what and at what price. Very very useful. "Ourproperty.co.uk"

 

44 Cumberland Street Edinburgh:

 

Bought by Heritors 2 Ltd for ?300,000 on 27 Jan 2005.

Bought from K Butcher.

Now up for sale for offers over ?379,000

 

DJ Alexander

 

71 Cumberland Street Edinburgh:

 

Bought by Heritors Ltd for ?349,000 on 29 Oct 2004.

Bought from Grant Development Ltd.

Now up for sale for offers over ?385,000

 

DJ Alexanders

 

19 (1F1 or 2F1) North West Circus Lane Edinburgh

 

 

Bought by Heritors Ltd ?305,000 on 19 Nov 2004.

Bought from A Milne

Now up for sale for offers over ?375,000.

 

DJ Alexander

 

Now the interesting thing is that due to the YOY figures that people use prices can be falling for almost a year before the general public are ever aware. This of course leaves a nice little window for those 'in the know' to get out in front of the crowd. What I find very interesting is the prices these properties are up for.Considering these are in the most prestigious area of Edinburgh they don't seem to be planning to make a huge profit. A very clear sign they are just trying to get out as quick as possible. ESPC figures out on July 8ish...

 

Edinburgh is crashing. Those in the know are telling us, but you have to dig to work it out. Excellent.

 

You've only dug, or chosen to highlight, half the story. As a fund they are investing elsewhere and wish to realise capital. Standard stuff for a fund who has to deliver profit and maybe feel growth better elsewhere.

[coppercrutch]

You've only dug, or chosen to highlight, half the story. As a fund they are investing elsewhere and wish to realise capital. Standard stuff for a fund who has to deliver profit and maybe feel growth better elsewhere.

 

Yes I have chosen to highlight half the story. That fact you have stated above. They have decided to INVEST ELSEWHERE. What does that normally tell you about an existing investment.......

 

Also why are they doing this and telling everyone else DONT SELL, and that their existing properties MAY get a 50% increase in rent next year !!.......

 

Don't try and stick up for them. They are ****. End of story. You can tell your boss that.

[The Godfather]

Yes I have chosen to highlight half the story. That fact you have stated above. They have decided to INVEST ELSEWHERE. What does that normally tell you about an existing investment.......

 

Also why are they doing this and telling everyone else DONT SELL, and that their existing properties MAY get a 50% increase in rent next year !!.......

 

Don't try and stick up for them. They are ****. End of story. You can tell your boss that.

 

1) It tells me they see more growth elsewhere, clearly. No big deal for any business.

2) It says nothing of the existing properties.

3) Rent will/and is increasing (50% is far too much, in my own opinion 5% nearer the mark, over the next year). Perhaps capital value is what the fund needs and not increased yield?

4) Sticking up for no one, prefer balanced opinion and reporting of full facts.

5) Aint my boss.

[coppercrutch]

1) It tells me they see more growth elsewhere, clearly. No big deal for any business.

2) It says nothing of the existing properties.

3) Rent will/and is increasing (50% is far too much, in my own opinion 5% nearer the mark, over the next year). Perhaps capital value is what the fund needs and not increased yield?

4) Sticking up for no one, prefer balanced opinion and reporting of full facts.

5) Aint my boss.

 

Why are you avoiding the main point ?

 

THEY ARE TELLING EVERYONE ELSE TO STAY PUT WHILST SELLING UP THEMSELVES........

 

You get the point....

 

Your points above are fine and dandy but they are just 'noise'....

 

They are selling up because Edinburgh is goosed, and they are in a better position than anyone to know this.

 

And I love how you point out that you "prefer balanced opinion and reporting of full facts"

 

See my bit in bold above. "Balanced opinion and full facts", that was sort of my entire point...

 

Theh fear is creeping into Edinburgh. Excellent. The sooner this delusion of 'Edinburgh is different and wont be affected' ends the better.

[coppercrutch]

By the way for anyone interested in this subject the following read is excellent.

 

Oh, and by the way the guy wrote this is 2005. He clearly knows what he is talking about. He is spookily spot on so far.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/3075/bust-will-follow-boom---but-when.html

 

But if you would rather trust 'experts' like estate agents then fine.

 

Remember though they can't even bring themselves to admit these facts when they are actually happening!!!

 

How much creedance should you give to their predictions of a 'soft landing' and 'it will be different here, we will be immune'....

[redm]

For those who are interested...RICS property market report for March...

 

http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Residential/Market/hms_march2008_r_150408.htm

[coppercrutch]

For those who are interested...RICS property market report for March...

 

http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Residential/Market/hms_march2008_r_150408.htm

 

Interesting. So Scotland is the opnly place where more are reporting rises ratehr than falls.

 

However if you look at the figures it is only 4% more.

 

So it looks to me that 48% of surveyors are reporting falls in prices in Scotland......funny how a simple switch round of the figures puts everything is a totally different light...........

 

The delay is still there. We will soon catch up though. This year is the turning point. Next year is when reality sinks in IMO.

[Peebo]

However if you look at the figures it is only 4% more.

 

So it looks to me that 48% of surveyors are reporting falls in prices in Scotland......funny how a simple switch round of the figures puts everything is a totally different light...........

 

Yeah, that is funny how people switch round figures like these. If anyone is interested, the figure is actually 9% not 48%. Quite clearly stated in the full report.

 

Yet again, you display fantastic analytical skills.

[coppercrutch]

Yeah, that is funny how people switch round figures like these. If anyone is interested, the figure is actually 9% not 48%. Quite clearly stated in the full report.

 

Yet again, you display fantastic analytical skills.

 

After all the details, numbers and figures I have put up you finally get something to shout about. Well if that makes you feel better then fine.

 

I looked at the link as you say and there is some interesting reading. As you have said the figures are as follows:

 

Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise, no change or fall in prices over the past 3 months

 

Mar-08 RISE 25 NO CHANGE 65 FALL 9

 

How they work out the 4% difference I am not quite sure..

 

The commentary below was very interesting. ....

 

"House prices continued to increase although at the slowest

pace since last December.

New buyer enquiries fell for the third consecutive month and at

the fastest pace since April 2007. New vendor instructions fell

very sharply, decreasing at the fastest pace since November

2005.

Surveyor confidence in the price outlook tuned negative,

reaching the lowest level since August 2007. Having increased

markedly in February, surveyor confidence in the sales outlook

also turned negative, reaching the lowest since last December ."

 

So seeing as you have given me the honour of commenting on these figures -how about you do the same with the rest of what I have posted in the last 3 or 4 pages.

 

Or do those scare you a little as they are not quite what you expect to see.....

 

ESPC:

 

Average Edinburgh sale price down from 228 - 210

 

Land Registry:

 

Average Edinburgh sale price down from 248 - 213

 

Some pretty large falls there, and WAY out of the norm even considering the 'quiet' time of year.

 

[RobM]

After all the details, numbers and figures I have put up you finally get something to shout about. Well if that makes you feel better then fine.

 

I looked at the link as you say and there is some interesting reading. As you have said the figures are as follows:

 

Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise, no change or fall in prices over the past 3 months

 

Mar-08 RISE 25 NO CHANGE 65 FALL 9

 

How they work out the 4% difference I am not quite sure..

 

The commentary below was very interesting. ....

 

"House prices continued to increase although at the slowest

pace since last December.

New buyer enquiries fell for the third consecutive month and at

the fastest pace since April 2007. New vendor instructions fell

very sharply, decreasing at the fastest pace since November

2005.

Surveyor confidence in the price outlook tuned negative,

reaching the lowest level since August 2007. Having increased

markedly in February, surveyor confidence in the sales outlook

also turned negative, reaching the lowest since last December ."

 

So seeing as you have given me the honour of commenting on these figures -how about you do the same with the rest of what I have posted in the last 3 or 4 pages.

 

Or do those scare you a little as they are not quite what you expect to see.....

 

ESPC:

 

Average Edinburgh sale price down from 228 - 210

 

Land Registry:

 

Average Edinburgh sale price down from 248 - 213

 

Some pretty large falls there, and WAY out of the norm even considering the 'quiet' time of year.

 

 

Woo hoo, punk's not dead.

 

They don't scare most people because what they gain on the swings they lose on the roundabouts. You are starting to display a foaming at the mouth fanaticism about this CC, it's not becoming and frankly unnatural in one so young.

 

Get out there and enjoy life a bit or yer gonnae end up in the bammy slam. Ye could probably sum uo the whole situation by saying 'that's life, deal with it.' Ye don't need to break it down to the algebraic level you seem intent on doing everytime an Edinburgh estate agent taps a couple of numbers into a calculator.

[coppercrutch]

Woo hoo, punk's not dead.

 

They don't scare most people because what they gain on the swings they lose on the roundabouts. You are starting to display a foaming at the mouth fanaticism about this CC, it's not becoming and frankly unnatural in one so young.

 

Get out there and enjoy life a bit or yer gonnae end up in the bammy slam. Ye could probably sum uo the whole situation by saying 'that's life, deal with it.' Ye don't need to break it down to the algebraic level you seem intent on doing everytime an Edinburgh estate agent taps a couple of numbers into a calculator.

 

Eh... ok......

 

I smell fear, I smell real fear. As far as 'Thats life deal with it' I totally agree.

 

I have probably been to more places and experienced more things than most people twice my age, and more.

 

I am just fine. My life revolves around having fun and enjoying myself. That is why I get ****ed off with people getting sucked in by complete LIES...

 

I am simply trying to point out to the brainwashed that the bull**** they are hearing is completely bollocks. I almost got sucked into it myself...

 

House prices will collapse. Accept it or be ****ed. End of story. I could charge for this advice but I prefer to give it for free, I am a nice guy.

 

[davemclaren]

Eh... ok......

 

I smell fear, I smell real fear. As far as 'Thats life deal with it' I totally agree.

 

I have probably been to more places and experienced more things than most people twice my age, and more.

 

I am just fine. My life revolves around having fun and enjoying myself. That is why I get ****ed off with people getting sucked in by complete LIES...

 

I am simply trying to point out to the brainwashed that the bull**** they are hearing is completely bollocks. I almost got sucked into it myself...

 

House prices will collapse. Accept it or be ****ed. End of story. I could charge for this advice but I prefer to give it for free, I am a nice guy.

 

 

I asssume that you are not authorised to give advice.

[coppercrutch]

I asssume that you are not authorised to give advice.

 

Of course not. I am simply giving my own opinion. Personally I would always trust some punters advice ahead of the advice of some so called 'expert'...

 

[davemclaren]

Of course not. I am simply giving my own opinion. Personally I would always trust some punters advice ahead of the advice of some so called 'expert'...

 

 

Some experts do know what they are talking about though.

[coppercrutch]

Some experts do know what they are talking about though.

 

Why thank you kind Sir.

[davemclaren]

Why thank you kind Sir.

 

[The Old Tolbooth]

Why thank you kind Sir.

 

Aherm. I think Dave meant me

[davemclaren]

Aherm. I think Dave meant me

 

:eek:

[The Old Tolbooth]

:eek:

 

Cheers Dave, least I have the qualifications lol!!

[neobis]

Cheers Dave, least I have the qualifications lol!!

 

... correct and that's what's frightening all of us?

It must not be difficult.

[The Old Tolbooth]

... correct and that's what's frightening all of us?

It must not be difficult.

 

Heh heh, touche!

 

 

tw@t

[Super T]

Interesting. So Scotland is the opnly place where more are reporting rises ratehr than falls.

 

However if you look at the figures it is only 4% more.

 

So it looks to me that 48% of surveyors are reporting falls in prices in Scotland......funny how a simple switch round of the figures puts everything is a totally different light...........

 

The delay is still there. We will soon catch up though. This year is the turning point. Next year is when reality sinks in IMO.

 

you really are a MOD EDIT!

please before your start to reference statistics can you please tell me what qualifications you have in order to give advice on something you clearly do not understand?

[coppercrutch]

you really are a first class tool!

please before your start to reference statistics can you please tell me what qualifications you have in order to give advice on something you clearly do not understand?

 

I have zero qualifications*. I do however have common sense and understand the basics of economics more than many so called 'experts'.

 

Have a look at my predictions on this thread, and what I have been saying since last summer. Have a look at how many have, or look likely to come through...

 

Then ask yourself what good 'qualifications' are.

 

I know people who have been trying to sell their house for almost a year. From the start I did a bit of an investigation into similar property prices, the overall market in the country etc...

 

They have now had 4 valuations from 'EXPERTS'. Each of them has told them the price they are trying to sell it for is UNDERVALUED.

 

I have told them all along based on my own analysis it is OVERVALUED.

 

It has still not sold. They are finally about to drop the price to get it sold.

 

I have no qualifications. The 4 valuers are 'experts'...

 

Who was right and actually knew what they were talking about? I will give you a clue. It was not the so called 'experts'....

 

I may be a tool. But I know what is going on and I am simply trying to tell the general public of this. People have been brainwashed into thinking stupid things. They will soon realise it was all bull****. By knowing more than the average punter I plan to take advantage for myself. Nothing wrong with that. Ignore my advice if you wish. I have no problem with that.

 

 

 

EDIT * - Just realised I did actually study quantitative analysis and statistics at University so I do have relevant experience. Was a long time ago however.

[Coco]

I have zero qualifications*. I do however have common sense and understand the basics of economics more than many so called 'experts'.

 

Have a look at my predictions on this thread, and what I have been saying since last summer. Have a look at how many have, or look likely to come through...

 

Then ask yourself what good 'qualifications' are.

 

I know people who have been trying to sell their house for almost a year. From the start I did a bit of an investigation into similar property prices, the overall market in the country etc...

 

They have now had 4 valuations from 'EXPERTS'. Each of them has told them the price they are trying to sell it for is UNDERVALUED.

 

I have told them all along based on my own analysis it is OVERVALUED.

 

It has still not sold. They are finally about to drop the price to get it sold.

 

I have no qualifications. The 4 valuers are 'experts'...

 

Who was right and actually knew what they were talking about? I will give you a clue. It was not the so called 'experts'....

 

I may be a tool. But I know what is going on and I am simply trying to tell the general public of this. People have been brainwashed into thinking stupid things. They will soon realise it was all bull****. By knowing more than the average punter I plan to take advantage for myself. Nothing wrong with that. Ignore my advice if you wish. I have no problem with that.

 

 

 

EDIT * - Just realised I did actually study quantitative analysis and statistics at University so I do have relevant experience. Was a long time ago however.

 

Have you read Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds?

 

There is nothing new in the current situation!

[coppercrutch]

Have you read Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds?

 

There is nothing new in the current situation!

 

I have not yet, but I may have a look. But yes I think I understand the basic concept.

 

Have a read of the moneyweek article from 2005 in post #520 on this thread. You will prob find it interesting.

[The Old Tolbooth]

I have not yet, but I may have a look. But yes I think I understand the basic concept.

 

Have a read of the moneyweek article from 2005 in post #520 on this thread. You will prob find it interesting.

 

I read an article by this guy just recently, and he related back to his 2005 predictions. He was pretty much spot on with what he was saying too, and it can't be ignored.

 

I think the worrying part for everyone is the very last paragraph asking if Gordon Brown has lost the plot with his new tax proposals which will prolong the recession even further, talk about playing with fire and is one reason I would like to see the man surgically removed from power!

[coppercrutch]

I read an article by this guy just recently, and he related back to his 2005 predictions. He was pretty much spot on with what he was saying too, and it can't be ignored.

 

I think the worrying part for everyone is the very last paragraph asking if Gordon Brown has lost the plot with his new tax proposals which will prolong the recession even further, talk about playing with fire and is one reason I would like to see the man surgically removed from power!

 

Indeed. I think he has lost it too. I am just scared what he may do in the next few years, if he does not get chucked out by his own party. He is a desperate man and he may do desperate things. A Japanese style decline could be a possible outcome....

 

BTW I think we all know the main reasons why house prices in the UK are likely to fall. They are based on a few fundamental reasons. People in Edinburgh seem to think we will avoid the worst because of this. In fact I think these fundamental reasons mean we will be hit hard.

 

If the following statements were true I would agree Edinburgh would not be looking at serious falls. However.......

 

Edinburgh does not have a huge reliance on the financial sector.

 

Edinburgh does not have a huge migrant population ready to leave at the drop of a hat.(They rent out a huge amount of the BTL properties, what happens to their flats when they leave....)

 

Edinburgh has not seen a huge building programme of flat after flat on every single spare plot of land.

 

Edinburgh has not seen the same spike and boom in prices that other places have.

 

Edinburgh does not have property that is vastly over-inflated compared to average salaries.

 

Edinburgh has not got the same credit and mortgage system as everywhere else

 

Anyway off to the game now. I think. If I can be bothered.

[Bonnie Prince Charlie]

you really are a first class tool!

please before your start to reference statistics can you please tell me what qualifications you have in order to give advice on something you clearly do not understand?

 

You really couldn't make it up - a self proclaimed property expert who does not own any property and sponges of his parents; probably gives them feck all dig money as well. He thinks he's going to pick up a cut price property in a few years time - I've worked in property for 23 years and he is truly deluded in this (not in Edinburgh anyway). Nothing wrong with living with the parents though. I flew the nest at 24 myself but I guess some people are just happy to live with the parents with all the comforts etc.

[coppercrutch]

You really couldn't make it up - a self proclaimed property expert who does not own any property and sponges of his parents; probably gives them feck all dig money as well. He thinks he's going to pick up a cut price property in a few years time - I've worked in property for 23 years and he is truly deluded in this (not in Edinburgh anyway). Nothing wrong with living with the parents though. I flew the nest at 24 myself but I guess some people are just happy to live with the parents with all the comforts etc.

 

Ahhh.

 

You are scared Doc.

 

Scared that some random punter knows more than all of your 'expert' mates put together. I feel sorry for you. I really do. Your FEAR speaks volumes.

 

What I say will happen. That scares you. Get used to it.

 

You have 'worked in property' for 23 years, and yet you have little clue.

 

Ah well. These things happen...

[coppercrutch]

You really couldn't make it up - a self proclaimed property expert who does not own any property and sponges of his parents; probably gives them feck all dig money as well. He thinks he's going to pick up a cut price property in a few years time - I've worked in property for 23 years and he is truly deluded in this (not in Edinburgh anyway). Nothing wrong with living with the parents though. I flew the nest at 24 myself but I guess some people are just happy to live with the parents with all the comforts etc.

 

How about you answer my points in post #542 rather than just spouting opinion.....

 

All I hear from people like yourself is HOPE. Nothing else. I have the facts, I have the figures. I have the knowledge. You have **** all.

 

Good luck with next years commission. You will get nothing.

[neobis]

The paranoia on this thread is incredible.

 

People are so defensive of their house price it's frightening.

[coppercrutch]

The paranoia on this thread is incredible.

 

People are so defensive of their house price it's frightening.

 

It is indeed. All I want is for the cost of a home to be reasonable once more. It will be far better for the country in the long term. Everyone must understand this ? Or has the brainwashing gone deeper than I thought ?

 

BTW here is todays effort from the Scotsman group:

 

http://business.scotsman.com/business/Landlords-demand-higher-rent-as.4071234.jp

TENANTS are facing a 50% rent rise in Scotland's two biggest cities as landlords cope with rising demand for rented accommodation.

 

What absolute nonsense. People will just move back in with parents/friends etc.. if that happens. You cant just raise rents as you wish. It is not like house prices with larger mortgages to back it up. Rents are directly linked to people's ability to pay on a monthly basis backed up by WAGES. If wages do not rise by 50% rents cannot rise by 50%. Well they can but all the flats will be empty !!

 

Oh and we are starting to see the exodus of a lot of the Poles from Edinburgh. Over 30,000 in the Lothians just now apparently. I would imagine 99.9% of them rent. What is going to happen to their flats when they go home to higher wages and a stronger currency....

 

And yes it is DJ Alexander spouting this nonsense again. The same Alexander(Brother of Wendy ) who is offloading his ENTIRE Edinburgh investment property through Heritors. (Green signs you will see all over the New Town)

 

https://www.heritors.com/sales.htm

 

So why would he be offloading all of this if he really expects his income from them to increase by 50% in a year for doing nothing !!??

 

The last thing he would be doing is selling these right now. He is jumping ship whilst telling everyone else to sit tight. Scandalous.

 

And if people don't want to believe what I am saying that is fine. They should however believe what this man is doing. He knows the score better than probably anyones else in this City. He is jumping ship. Nuff said.....

[Peebo]

After all the details, numbers and figures I have put up you finally get something to shout about. Well if that makes you feel better then fine.

 

I looked at the link as you say and there is some interesting reading. As you have said the figures are as follows:

 

Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise, no change or fall in prices over the past 3 months

 

Mar-08 RISE 25 NO CHANGE 65 FALL 9

 

How they work out the 4% difference I am not quite sure..

 

The commentary below was very interesting. ....

 

"House prices continued to increase although at the slowest

pace since last December.

New buyer enquiries fell for the third consecutive month and at

the fastest pace since April 2007. New vendor instructions fell

very sharply, decreasing at the fastest pace since November

2005.

Surveyor confidence in the price outlook tuned negative,

reaching the lowest level since August 2007. Having increased

markedly in February, surveyor confidence in the sales outlook

also turned negative, reaching the lowest since last December ."

 

So seeing as you have given me the honour of commenting on these figures -how about you do the same with the rest of what I have posted in the last 3 or 4 pages.

 

Or do those scare you a little as they are not quite what you expect to see.....

 

ESPC:

 

Average Edinburgh sale price down from 228 - 210

 

Land Registry:

 

Average Edinburgh sale price down from 248 - 213

 

Some pretty large falls there, and WAY out of the norm even considering the 'quiet' time of year.

 

 

Just read this now...and I will address the points

 

The 4% figure - this is a "seasonally adjusted" figure. I don't know what the methodology behind that is.

 

The ESPC figures - what are you prattling on about? I have already "given you the honour" of commenting on those figures - more specifically, your misinterpretation (deliberate, or through ignorance) of them.

 

The Land Registry figures - I've had a quick look back at what you posted. Nothing springs to mind to comment on, other than perhaps the fact that within that limited range, none of the quarters have seen an annual drop.

[Chip Douglas]

Given that this thread is already littered with pedantry, can we stop using English terminology to describe our land registration organisation, which is of course the Land Register (of Scotland).

[The Old Tolbooth]

Given that this thread is already littered with pedantry, can we stop using English terminology to describe our land registration organisation, which is of course the Land Register (of Scotland).

 

I dunno about you Chip, but having to study about sasines, vassels, and fuers done my head in!