Estate Agents! Advice....

[Domokun]

If I were to, for example, become an estate agent, would it be common practice at most firms for me to have to pay ?2500 for my own training and then pay a sort of "lease" on office space amounting to ?400 per month?

 

Not only that, but as a commission paying job, having to wait up to 10 weeks (or more) for any property sales to be concluded, therefore 3 months without a wage?

 

Edit: So that amounts to ?3700 before I seen any return, and that is assuming I had a sale or two quick-ish...

[neobis]

If I were to, for example, become an estate agent, would it be common practice at most firms for me to have to pay ?2500 for my own training and then pay a sort of "lease" on office space amounting to ?400 per month?

 

Not only that, but as a commission paying job, having to wait up to 10 weeks (or more) for any property sales to be concluded, therefore 3 months without a wage?

 

Edit: So that amounts to ?3700 before I seen any return, and that is assuming I had a sale or two quick-ish...

 

Sounds a tad infeasible.

 

...... however I have no idea ..... but it sounds like Remax???

 

P.S - I am only guessing.

[Meadows]

I know Zilch about Estate Agents and their practices but it sounds like a crap idea to me, if they paid for your training / qualifications and you left within say 12 months,they could then invoice you would be a lot fairer.

Also charging you rent? /if it was my business i'd start 4 or 5 guys per month with that scam!!!

[coppercrutch]

Anyone who is thinking about becoming an estate agent soon needs their heads examined. The EA business will see huge redundancies in the next few years.

 

99.9999% guaranteed.

[argyjambo]

Sounds a tad infeasible.

 

...... however I have no idea ..... but it sounds like Remax???

 

P.S - I am only guessing.

 

I think your right, Remax is a franchise which the franchisee (you) pays a fee to the Franchisor (remax) for training, premises, advertising office space etc.

 

If you dont have the cash, perhaps if you prepare a business plan a bank might lend you the money.

Beware if you have no experience you may wish to consider taking a job with an estate agent for a year or two to gain some experience& some cash. Then if you are still keen on the idea, & the market is still fairly bouyant go for it.

 

Good Luck!

[Domokun]

I was only going to do it for a 2nd job as it would tie in closely with my current line of business but it seems like too much of a financial commitment and maybe, if the truth be told, I'd have to work a bit harder at it (i.e full-time) than I'd hoped initially.

 

For the folk who mentioned Remax...Yep!

 

Gingersnatch......Seeing as you're such an expert on anything remotely financial could you please explain to me how a self-employed person can be made redundant? I'm interested to know.

 

Besides, the Edinburgh and surrounding areas property market is as buoyant as any in the whole of the UK right now and even in your doom-and-gloom "Apocalype Now" future would still be one of the highest performing markets. FACT.

[coppercrutch]

I was only going to do it for a 2nd job as it would tie in closely with my current line of business but it seems like too much of a financial commitment and maybe, if the truth be told, I'd have to work a bit harder at it (i.e full-time) than I'd hoped initially.

 

For the folk who mentioned Remax...Yep!

 

Gingersnatch......Seeing as you're such an expert on anything remotely financial could you please explain to me how a self-employed person can be made redundant? I'm interested to know.

 

Besides, the Edinburgh and surrounding areas property market is as buoyant as any in the whole of the UK right now and even in your doom-and-gloom "Apocalype Now" future would still be one of the highest performing markets. FACT.

 

You would have to make yourself redundant.

 

And considering your initial post stated the words 'wage' and 'job' trying to be smart with your 'self employed' comment above is a little foolish.

 

Anyway, after wasting thousands of pounds to get into this position? Not a good plan.

 

You just carry along with the 'Everything is fine in Edinburgh' line. There is nothing 'buoyant' about the Edinburgh housing market at present. And it is only going to get worse.

 

If your current income is reliant on a continuing 'boom' then good luck to you.

[Meadows]

If the Edinburgh market is doomed how when i bid 20% over the offers over price did i get knocked back?

Also my mate is selling a 3 bed in Buckstone and his first day of viewing saw 28 couples arrive.

Are those both 'one off's?

[coppercrutch]

If the Edinburgh market is doomed how when i bid 20% over the offers over price did i get knocked back?

Also my mate is selling a 3 bed in Buckstone and his first day of viewing saw 28 couples arrive.

Are those both 'one off's?

 

There are always houses that sell for more than expected. The difference in Edinburgh just now is there is also a mass of very nice houses sitting without buyers - After being on the market for 6 months plus. I know 3 people in that very situation. That has not happened for years.

 

Some people are still being stupid and believing 'Edinburgh will be different'.....

 

To think that one city can be cut off from what is happening in the rest of the World is ridiculous. Especially when many people in that city have jobs reliant on the financial sector. A financial sector that is facing very difficult times ahead......

 

Time will tell. And it is not going to be pretty.

[pablo]

Some properties in Edinburgh took a little longer to sell than normal last year, around the time of the collapse of Nothern Rock. However, prices didn't drop at anytime. In fact there has only been a single quarter period of negative equity in Edinburgh in 35 years.

 

There are not enough houses in Edinburgh, the green belt and property developers after a quick buck see to that.

 

New build flats on the other hand. Most of them don't look like they will out live the term of a mortgage.

[coppercrutch]

Some properties in Edinburgh took a little longer to sell than normal last year, around the time of the collapse of Nothern Rock. However, prices didn't drop at anytime. In fact there has only been a single quarter period of negative equity in Edinburgh in 35 years.

 

There are not enough houses in Edinburgh, the green belt and property developers after a quick buck see to that.

New build flats on the other hand. Most of them don't look like they will out live the term of a mortgage.

 

But that is the problem. People don't understand the basic facts. INFLATION isn't considered when people state things like this. If a price remains the same for a year, but inflation is at 15% ( Like it was in the late 80's) then the value of that property has actually FALLEN by 15% in real terms. People seem incapable of taking in this very simple basic concept !!

 

Anyway I do agree that houses will not see as huge falls as new build flats. There are not enough nice family homes. But there is a massive number of new build flats all over the city that are vastly overpriced. One bedroom flat in Granton for 150k

 

That is only going to end up one way.

 

As for the supply and demand argument that is only one part of it. Lenders are very quickly pulling their 100% offers for mortgages. This will not only affect FTB's but ALSO it will affect those on short term deals looking ot remortgage. If they have a 100% mortgage, and the value of their property is the same as last year then they will have difficulty getting the mortgage they would expect. They may be forced into a far higher rate.

 

Anyway I predict August will be the time of reckoning for the Edinburgh market. The figures used for property are 'year on year'. Using the ESPC's own figures the average price has fallen from 229k to 215k since July last year.( So your assertion that prices 'did not fall' during this time is incorrent:))

 

BUT if you compare it to a year ago it has risen from about 200k to 215k. So whether prices are going up or not changes simply depending on your timescales.

 

If the average house sells for less than 229k up to July 2008 then they will have to publish falling 'year on year' prices in Edinburgh for the first time in probably 15 years. That will be massive news. Momentum on the way up could very easily turn to momentum on the way down. Don't say I didn't warn you.

 

Also expect to see far far more new build flats up for sale from April onwards. (On top of the large numbers already for sale.) This will be due to the new CGT rules that are coming into force at that time. People trying to get as much out of their 'investment' when they can.

 

Anyway, as I have said before, I could be completely wrong about my predictions. But I would be very surprised.

[Tom Heaney]

If I were to, for example, become an estate agent, would it be common practice at most firms for me to have to pay ?2500 for my own training and then pay a sort of "lease" on office space amounting to ?400 per month?

 

Not only that, but as a commission paying job, having to wait up to 10 weeks (or more) for any property sales to be concluded, therefore 3 months without a wage?

 

Edit: So that amounts to ?3700 before I seen any return, and that is assuming I had a sale or two quick-ish...

 

That is very typical of how Remax operates here although a good agent at Remax across here can earn a bing load. With them here you pay a "desk fee" of approx $1,200 per month but you keep 100% of the commissions that are offered to you as the buyers agent or sellers agent. Other companies such as the one I work for you dont have any monthly fees to the company however you split the commissions that come to you. Your split would depend on your level of sales and units sold etc. The rewards can still be very high, for instance, say you sold a $500,000 home, you could walk away with anything between $8,000 - $11,000 depending on what split you were on. It would not be unusual for an agent to do 2 or 3 of them a month so as I said earlier the rewards can be pretty good. Its obviously a lot different than the UK with agency laws etc that we have. If you are selling a home here the fee would typically be 6% of the sales price all paid for by the seller. That 6% would then be split equally between the agent representing the seller and the agent representing the buyer

[Domokun]

1) You would have to make yourself redundant.

 

2) And considering your initial post stated the words 'wage' and 'job' trying to be smart with your 'self employed' comment above is a little foolish.

 

3) Anyway, after wasting thousands of pounds to get into this position? Not a good plan.

 

4) You just carry along with the 'Everything is fine in Edinburgh' line. There is nothing 'buoyant' about the Edinburgh housing market at present. And it is only going to get worse.

 

5) If your current income is reliant on a continuing 'boom' then good luck to you.

 

1) Correct. "Cease trading" would be the correct term if I were to operate, as I do at present, as a sole trader.

 

2) Yes, I did mention "wage" and "job" because, believe it or not, if you're self-employed, you do still have a "job" and are still paid a "wage". A "salary" it is not, but a "wage" it sure is - anything you are paid is a wage as far as I'm concerned. Also, starting sentences with "and" is not considered articulate.

 

3) The term "wasting" is speculation in my opinion. Only after 6 months or so could you prove that it would be "wasted". It's a big risk, yes, and one that I'm not prepared to take if I can't guarantee that I'll put 100% commitment into the venture. As usual you prefer melodrama to FACTS.

 

4) You talk the biggest load of tripe sometimes. See the poster, Meadows, post further down. "Offers over" properties are still consistently going for 10-20% over the figure not just in Edinburgh, but West Fife, West, East and Mid-lothian too. A combined market of some 750,000 homes.

 

5) No, my current income is not reliant on a continuing "boom". Where did I state what my current line of work was? It's not in property as such but is related to housing, therefore would tie-in with any estate agency work in regards to the marketing side of the business.

[Domokun]

There are always houses that sell for more than expected. The difference in Edinburgh just now is there is also a mass of very nice houses sitting without buyers - After being on the market for 6 months plus. I know 3 people in that very situation. That has not happened for years.

 

Some people are still being stupid and believing 'Edinburgh will be different'.....

 

To think that one city can be cut off from what is happening in the rest of the World is ridiculous. Especially when many people in that city have jobs reliant on the financial sector. A financial sector that is facing very difficult times ahead......

 

Time will tell. And it is not going to be pretty.

 

Re: the part in bold, it could just be that the people in question have opted to deal with an estate agent who has "inflated" the value of their property in order to gain their business.

[coppercrutch]

1) Correct. "Cease trading" would be the correct term if I were to operate, as I do at present, as a sole trader.

 

2) Yes, I did mention "wage" and "job" because, believe it or not, if you're self-employed, you do still have a "job" and are still paid a "wage". A "salary" it is not, but a "wage" it sure is - anything you are paid is a wage as far as I'm concerned. Also, starting sentences with "and" is not considered articulate.

 

3) The term "wasting" is speculation in my opinion. Only after 6 months or so could you prove that it would be "wasted". It's a big risk, yes, and one that I'm not prepared to take if I can't guarantee that I'll put 100% commitment into the venture. As usual you prefer melodrama to FACTS.

 

4) You talk the biggest load of tripe sometimes. See the poster, Meadows, post further down. "Offers over" properties are still consistently going for 10-20% over the figure not just in Edinburgh, but West Fife, West, East and Mid-lothian too. A combined market of some 750,000 homes.

 

5) No, my current income is not reliant on a continuing "boom". Where did I state what my current line of work was? It's not in property as such but is related to housing, therefore would tie-in with any estate agency work in regards to the marketing side of the business.

 

Delusion. You base how the Edinburgh property market is doing based on a post on JKB. I am truly astounded.

 

Simple task for you to undertake tomorrow. This simple task will show you the REALITY and not just what a few 'booming' anecdotes suggest:

 

(Step 1) Get a copy of the ESPC.

(Step 2)Go to the listings at the end.

(Step 3)Have a quick look at how many have the little pink words on them, 'fixed price'.

 

(Step 4)Ask yourself why people in Scotland sell properties at fixed price. Yes you guessed it, when no-one is interested in the offers over value and they are having difficulty selling. And this is all at the time of the year when things usually 'take off'....

 

Work it out.

 

Anyway good luck to yourself if you want to go down the Remax route. Personally I think your timing is akin to someone deciding to buy NR shares the day after their troubles all went public. But hey I may be wrong and you may do just fine..........

 

"When everyone is making money, it is already too late."

When everyone decides - "Isn't it a great time to be an Estate Agent, aren't they making so much money".........

 

Well work it out for yourself.

 

 

If you are going to go down the Remax route you will be paid in commission. That means you need sales to make money. In the 3 months to Dec 2007 the amount of sales in Edinburgh went down 15.7%..................

 

http://www.espc.com/EspcPagemedia/MediaRoom/Q4_2007.pdf

 

That is not good news for someone hoping to live off commission. Sales volume is what will keep you afloat. But I am sure you already know this.

 

Many, many people who know a lot about the housing market in the UK think it is only just starting, and is going to get much,much worse.

 

Good luck. You WILL need it.

[Domokun]

Delusion. You base how the Edinburgh property market is doing based on a post on JKB. I am truly astounded.

 

Simple task for you to undertake tomorrow. This simple task will show you the REALITY and not just what a few 'booming' anecdotes suggest:

 

(Step 1) Get a copy of the ESPC.

(Step 2)Go to the listings at the end.

(Step 3)Have a quick look at how many have the little pink words on them, 'fixed price'.

 

(Step 4)Ask yourself why people in Scotland sell properties at fixed price. Yes you guessed it, when no-one is interested in the offers over value and they are having difficulty selling. And this is all at the time of the year when things usually 'take off'....

 

Work it out.

 

Anyway good luck to yourself if you want to go down the Remax route. Personally I think your timing is akin to someone deciding to buy NR shares the day after their troubles all went public. But hey I may be wrong and you may do just fine..........

 

"When everyone is making money, it is already too late."

When everyone decides - "Isn't it a great time to be an Estate Agent, aren't they making so much money".........

 

Well work it out for yourself.

 

 

If you are going to go down the Remax route you will be paid in commission. That means you need sales to make money. In the 3 months to Dec 2007 the amount of sales in Edinburgh went down 15.7%..................

 

http://www.espc.com/EspcPagemedia/MediaRoom/Q4_2007.pdf

 

That is not good news for someone hoping to live off commission. Sales volume is what will keep you afloat. But I am sure you already know this.

 

Many, many people who know a lot about the housing market in the UK think it is only just starting, and is going to get much,much worse.

 

Good luck. You WILL need it.

 

What part of "I'm not going to go for it" don't you understand?

 

I give up on you. Plamff.

[Domokun]

1) Delusion. You base how the Edinburgh property market is doing based on a post on JKB. I am truly astounded.

 

2) Simple task for you to undertake tomorrow. This simple task will show you the REALITY and not just what a few 'booming' anecdotes suggest:

 

(Step 1) Get a copy of the ESPC.

(Step 2)Go to the listings at the end.

(Step 3)Have a quick look at how many have the little pink words on them, 'fixed price'.

 

(Step 4)Ask yourself why people in Scotland sell properties at fixed price. Yes you guessed it, when no-one is interested in the offers over value and they are having difficulty selling. And this is all at the time of the year when things usually 'take off'....

 

Work it out.

 

3) Anyway good luck to yourself if you want to go down the Remax route. Personally I think your timing is akin to someone deciding to buy NR shares the day after their troubles all went public. But hey I may be wrong and you may do just fine..........

 

4) "When everyone is making money, it is already too late."

When everyone decides - "Isn't it a great time to be an Estate Agent, aren't they making so much money".........

 

Well work it out for yourself.

 

 

5) If you are going to go down the Remax route you will be paid in commission. That means you need sales to make money. In the 3 months to Dec 2007 the amount of sales in Edinburgh went down 15.7%..................

 

http://www.espc.com/EspcPagemedia/MediaRoom/Q4_2007.pdf

 

That is not good news for someone hoping to live off commission. Sales volume is what will keep you afloat. But I am sure you already know this.

 

6) Many, many people who know a lot about the housing market in the UK think it is only just starting, and is going to get much,much worse.

 

7) Good luck. You WILL need it.

In fact, on second thoughts, no I don't give up, but rest assured this will be the last time, ever, I will waste any of my time replying to you on any subject.

 

 

1) I base how the Edinburgh market is doing on FACTS, not one little post on JKB. You can obviously predict the future, so I can't argue with that....

 

2) Simple task for you to undertake, whenever you feel like it - Stop being a patronising, point-scoring, argumentative git. FWIW, commission is still gained on fixed price prop, just the same. Quicker sale - perfect - quicker cash.

 

3) My timing? Considering I haven't entered into anything and went no further than informal discussions, allied to the fact I only started the thread to see how other estate agencies operated in relation to Remax, I think you're seriously jumping the gun. Don't let FACTS get in the way of one of your gay debates, eh?

 

4) I honestly did not think "what a great time to be an estate agent". I can see that there MAY be difficult times ahead for the industry. I was approached by an old associate with regards becoming a franchisee and thought I'd at least hear him out, do a bit of research, then make up my mind.

 

5) "Hoping to live off the commission"...Ha! Where did I ever say I'd be totally reliant on the commission to survive?

 

6) Many people think lots of things. I've spoken to all sorts of folk in the industry from mortgage advisors to EA's to solicitors who all agree that NOBODY knows what will happen. Please stop going on and on about doomsday in every single one of your threads. It may happen, yes, but similarly, it may not.

 

7) Thanks for the patronising "good luck" gesture. I WON'T need it, as I'm NOT going for it.

 

Sheesh.

 

edit: I asked for advice from ESTATE AGENTS. If you are one coppercrutch, thanks. If not, what the feck are you doing blackening my thread, TROLL?

[coppercrutch]

What part of "I'm not going to go for it" don't you understand?

 

I give up on you. Plamff.

 

Seeing as you have quoted yourself here you may want to point out where you stated this. Because I sure can't find it.....

 

And your other posts seem to be very angry. All I am is a complete stranger trying to stop you making a huge mistake.

 

Why you describe my postings on this subject as 'doomsday' I do not know. I simply think the party is over and everyone who has been making a killing on property in the last few years is about to endure carnage. I don't see that as 'doomsday'. I see that as welcome to half the people in this country.

 

If it appears I know more about all this than many other people, when in fact I have no connection to this industry, then you are correct. If this makes you angry then get over it. Most people in the industry have zero clue about the larger factors that will influence the future. I however do know a little. And that is a little more than the majority of mortgage advisor's or Estate agent's out there.

 

(With the exception of a certain Rosyth poster on this site who seems to know his stuff.)

 

Maybe he will appear to give you his advice.

[Tom Heaney]

 

In the 3 months to Dec 2007 the amount of sales in Edinburgh went down 15.7%..................

 

Was that compared to the same 3 months in 2006 or the summer months of 2007 ?

[coppercrutch]

Was that compared to the same 3 months in 2006 or the summer months of 2007 ?

 

That was compared to the same 3 months in 2006......

 

So the usual 'Seasonally adjusted' line from the ESPC is meaningless.

 

As I have said August 2008 is make or break. If the average sale price in the 3 months to 31 July is less than 229k then Prices in Edinburgh are falling. That will shock people. Because, as has been shown on this site, most people believe that prices in Edinburgh will never fall(Even though they don't understand the simple logic of inflation and 'real' prices).

 

The simple fact that this may happen in August will be enough, IMO, to instill real fear into many people. The ESPC and Evening News will not want to advertise this fact. I get a funny feeling however that the wiedgie press will have no such qualms delighting in Edinburgh's fall from grace.

 

But hey what do I know.

 

PS. Is Britain looking very like the US was a year or so ago ?

[IronJambo]

i know that pretty much everyone that starts up with remax makes a little more than nothing in their first year. trends over the last few years have seen them have a decent income on year two and healthier still year on year.

 

with the market slowing down and lenders tightening their belts i'd think it'd be a much tougher game today. don't think it'd be wise. you've already said you're not going for it though

[heart of lothian]

For those who say Scotland is immune from a housing crash, examine the evidence.

All housebuilders losing 50% plus of their value in under a year.

Bank Stocks about 50% lower than a year ago.

First run on a high street Bank in over a hundred years.

Aberdeen prices down 4% last quarter with 3 times more property on the market than this time last year.

Edinburgh down around 5% last quarter

30%+ Less mortgage approvals than this time last year, and likely to get worse.

 

In my opinion the only question is whether it is a rapid crash or a long drawn out decline.

[Tom Heaney]

That was compared to the same 3 months in 2006......

 

So the usual 'Seasonally adjusted' line from the ESPC is meaningless.

 

As I have said August 2008 is make or break. If the average sale price in the 3 months to 31 July is less than 229k then Prices in Edinburgh are falling. That will shock people. Because, as has been shown on this site, most people believe that prices in Edinburgh will never fall(Even though they don't understand the simple logic of inflation and 'real' prices).

 

The simple fact that this may happen in August will be enough, IMO, to instill real fear into many people. The ESPC and Evening News will not want to advertise this fact. I get a funny feeling however that the wiedgie press will have no such qualms delighting in Edinburgh's fall from grace.

 

But hey what do I know.

 

PS. Is Britain looking very like the US was a year or so ago ?

 

Of course prices of homes will fall just as they will rise again. From what I can tell from afar Edinburgh has witnessed something like what we have across here since 1999/2000.

 

In the area we live we were seeing as much as a 15% year on year increase, so of course we were sitting in 2005 with homes that were worth as much as 50/60% more than they had been in the late 90's. Different story now of course with prices down as much as 20% in some areas compared to 2005/2006. Although in the immediate DC Metro area we are a little more "bullet proof" because of the transient nature of the area. We have had our issues no doubt, but if it can settle down a little in this area then a new government and all the changes that will entail may help keep this market from dropping much further

[robjam]

I am in the business and working for a solicitor, would put you off going with remax but thats coming from the opposition!! Firstly you would need a fair bit of savings to cover you starting up. There are the costs you have to pay Remax and then you have to wait until your first listings to make the market. No commission will be paid until the property is sold and the money changes hands at the entry date which is normaly three months down the line. Remax normally charge a commission of 1.25% might be smaller for larger properties but there market is definately at the lower end and harder to shift properties like new build. Not many half million pound properties on their books. Part time as well dont know that they would go along with that to be honest.

 

Lot of rubbish being talked on here re the market as well, prices are not being affected, they are not going down, probably rising at 3-5%, obviuosly lower than this time last year but NOT GOING DOWN. Properties are also taking longer to sell(average about a month for new stock) probably due to the fact there are a lot more properties on the market.

[Domokun]

What part of "I'm not going to go for it" don't you understand?

 

I give up on you. Plamff.

 

Seeing as you have quoted yourself here you may want to point out where you stated this. Because I sure can't find it.....

 

Ok I maybe didn't say it in exactly those words, but, here you go...

 

Post #6:

.. it seems like too much of a financial commitment and maybe, if the truth be told, I'd have to work a bit harder at it (i.e full-time) than I'd hoped initially.

 

Post #13:

It's a big risk, yes, and one that I'm not prepared to take if I can't guarantee that I'll put 100% commitment into the venture. As usual you prefer melodrama to FACTS.

 

 

And your other posts seem to be very angry. All I am is a complete stranger trying to stop you making a huge mistake.

 

If my posts seem angry towards you, then it is because you have hijacked my thread with the usual debate about economic slowdown/housing crash/rising inflation when all I was looking for were EAs to tell me how it worked at THEIR places of work.

 

Maybe he will appear to give you his advice.

As much as I respect JM as a poster on this site, that wouldn't really have been what I was looking for either, as he is not an estate agent. If he had a lot of knowledge of EA firms then that would be acceptable (he may or may not, if so then great, advice appreciated).

 

i know that pretty much everyone that starts up with remax makes a little more than nothing in their first year. trends over the last few years have seen them have a decent income on year two and healthier still year on year.

 

with the market slowing down and lenders tightening their belts i'd think it'd be a much tougher game today. don't think it'd be wise. you've already said you're not going for it though

Cheers. Not only have you given me some of the info I was looking for, you've realised I'm not going for it. Hallelujah!

 

 

I am in the business and working for a solicitor, would put you off going with remax but thats coming from the opposition!! Firstly you would need a fair bit of savings to cover you starting up. There are the costs you have to pay Remax and then you have to wait until your first listings to make the market. No commission will be paid until the property is sold and the money changes hands at the entry date which is normaly three months down the line. Remax normally charge a commission of 1.25% might be smaller for larger properties but there market is definately at the lower end and harder to shift properties like new build. Not many half million pound properties on their books. Part time as well dont know that they would go along with that to be honest.

 

Lot of rubbish being talked on here re the market as well, prices are not being affected, they are not going down, probably rising at 3-5%, obviuosly lower than this time last year but NOT GOING DOWN. Properties are also taking longer to sell(average about a month for new stock) probably due to the fact there are a lot more properties on the market.

Cheers Robin, yet more of the kind of advice I was actually looking for!

 

I know all about the commission structures and, so I was told anyway, that I could continue with my current business venture (mostly evening work anyway) and conduct most of my EA duties during the day.

 

Agree about the rubbish being spouted by the usual suspect. I feel he either has a hidden agenda somehow or is bitter and twisted that he still lives with his parents. Rubbish nonetheless.

 

It stands to reason that prop is taking longer to sell if FTB's and sub-prime are having real problems getting mortgages.

 

Phew this is a long post, but thanks to all the folk who had genuine advice to give. Tom Heaney, cheers to you too. Seems Remax works pretty much the same in the US.

 

[heart of lothian]

Lot of rubbish being talked on here re the market as well, prices are not being affected, they are not going down, probably rising at 3-5%, obviuosly lower than this time last year but NOT GOING DOWN.

 

I think its your estate agent who talks rubbish, I go by the figures.

5.8% last quarter, thats 20% + a year if things continue, plus 4% inflation.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/qp.stm

[Domokun]

Lot of rubbish being talked on here re the market as well, prices are not being affected, they are not going down, probably rising at 3-5%, obviuosly lower than this time last year but NOT GOING DOWN.

 

I think its your estate agent who talks rubbish, I go by the figures.

5.8% last quarter, thats 20% + a year if things continue, plus 4% inflation.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/qp.stm

 

Hmm...

 

Fair shout....Seems to be a hell of a lot of conflicting views regarding house price inflation being banded about.

 

I must say everything I had read and heard up to now suggested an annual rise of slightly above inflation, in the region of 5-7%.

 

Time will tell.

[heart of lothian]

Hmm...

 

Fair shout....Seems to be a hell of a lot of conflicting views regarding house price inflation being banded about.

 

I must say everything I had read and heard up to now suggested an annual rise of slightly above inflation, in the region of 5-7%.

 

Time will tell.

 

No doubt it will and sorry for kinda hijacking your thread! (You had made your mind up before I came along anyway).

[IronJambo]

i don't think anyone here is spouting single fish about the market. everyone has different figures all from different sources and even the same source can be really confusing and seemingly contradictive.

 

from yesterdays Times "Figures published yesterday by Nationwide, the second-biggest mortgage lender, showed that house prices fell by 0.5 percent in February, causing annual house-price growth to dip sharply to 2.7 percent, down from 4.2 percent in January. The value of the average house has fallen by more than ?6,000 since September, Nationwide figures showed".

 

This paragraph confuses me as until i read the last sentance i'd have believed that this year had seen a 2.7% growth. But how can that be if the markets dipped an average of ?6k since september? Did it start to rise again after September?

[Domokun]

No doubt it will and sorry for kinda hijacking your thread! (You had made your mind up before I came along anyway).

 

It's ok, I suppose.

 

It was hijacked long ago...

[heart of lothian]

i don't think anyone here is spouting single fish about the market. everyone has different figures all from different sources and even the same source can be really confusing and seemingly contradictive.

 

from yesterdays Times "Figures published yesterday by Nationwide, the second-biggest mortgage lender, showed that house prices fell by 0.5 percent in February, causing annual house-price growth to dip sharply to 2.7 percent, down from 4.2 percent in January. The value of the average house has fallen by more than ?6,000 since September, Nationwide figures showed".

 

This paragraph confuses me as until i read the last sentance i'd have believed that this year had seen a 2.7% growth. But how can that be if the markets dipped an average of ?6k since september? Did it start to rise again after September?

 

As far as i can recall Nationwide uses only its own figures, ie houses that have mortgages with them. Some of the other indexes only use asking prices, which may be quite higher than the actual price paid. (esp in England.)

The Land Registry which Ive linked to seems to be the most accurate, but the downside is that there is a few months lag in the figures (house sells in November but not Registered till Jan).

[robjam]

figures , figures, figures. You can read a whole lot into them almost what you want to hear, or what the media wants you to hear!!!. I'm at the sharp end and edinburgh has always bucks trends its a market in itself. The media and figures that the banks and building societies spout are national and do not relate to Edinburgh specifically.

 

Personally I would not touch remax with a barge pole but then i am biased!!

[Chip Douglas]

Seeing as you have quoted yourself here you may want to point out where you stated this. Because I sure can't find it.....

 

And your other posts seem to be very angry. All I am is a complete stranger trying to stop you making a huge mistake.

 

Why you describe my postings on this subject as 'doomsday' I do not know. I simply think the party is over and everyone who has been making a killing on property in the last few years is about to endure carnage. I don't see that as 'doomsday'. I see that as welcome to half the people in this country.

 

If it appears I know more about all this than many other people, when in fact I have no connection to this industry, then you are correct. If this makes you angry then get over it. Most people in the industry have zero clue about the larger factors that will influence the future. I however do know a little. And that is a little more than the majority of mortgage advisor's or Estate agent's out there.

 

(With the exception of a certain Rosyth poster on this site who seems to know his stuff.)

 

Maybe he will appear to give you his advice.

 

 

I have read some undiluted BS on this site over the past 10 years or so and this post is up there with the best of them.

 

Which website opinions do you regurgitate as your own?

 

My particular favourites from your post (and there are many):-

 

"Endure carnage"

 

"Most people in the industry have zero clue about the large factors"

 

Priceless! Sure beats American Idol on a Sunday evening.

 

[coppercrutch]

 

Lot of rubbish being talked on here re the market as well, prices are not being affected, they are not going down, probably rising at 3-5%, obviuosly lower than this time last year but NOT GOING DOWN. Properties are also taking longer to sell(average about a month for new stock) probably due to the fact there are a lot more properties on the market.

 

ESPC own Figures:

 

2005:

 

Q1 165k

Q2 179k

Q3 176k

Q4 177k

 

 

2006:

 

Q1 179k

Q2 200k

Q3 200k

Q4 197k

 

2008:

 

Q1 208k

Q2 228k

Q3 222k

Q4 215k

 

 

In the last 3 years prices have not fallen more than 3k even taking into account 'seasonal differences'.

 

In the last 6 months they have fallen 13k. At the same time sales volumes are down over 15% on the same time last year.

 

What would that be telling you...

 

Of course being in the industry you would know all this. Why you would then spout the drivel that I have quoted above I do not know. Oh actually I do. Fear. Fear that the party is over. Fear that prices are starting to come down to their long term average - eg... 3-4 X average salary.

 

As I have said most EA's and Mortgage advisors have zero clue about the situation at the present.

 

I think the above post supports this perfectly.

[coppercrutch]

Of course prices of homes will fall just as they will rise again. From what I can tell from afar Edinburgh has witnessed something like what we have across here since 1999/2000.

 

In the area we live we were seeing as much as a 15% year on year increase, so of course we were sitting in 2005 with homes that were worth as much as 50/60% more than they had been in the late 90's. Different story now of course with prices down as much as 20% in some areas compared to 2005/2006. Although in the immediate DC Metro area we are a little more "bullet proof" because of the transient nature of the area. We have had our issues no doubt, but if it can settle down a little in this area then a new government and all the changes that will entail may help keep this market from dropping much further

 

Thanks for that. Interesting to hear. Of course the US and the UK are different countries. But the causes of the US problems are prevalent here as well. And homes are overvauled by a much larger amount than the US. Thing is I hear a lot of the nicer areas in the US are suffering most ? Places like San Diego and Florida ?

 

I have lived in SD myself and it is one amazing place. That is when I find it rather amusing when people think Edinburgh will be 'immune' from any bust because of its 'own little market'. If a place like SD can crash then Edinburgh will have no problems. I think the same logic will prevail. The places that have seen the largest rises, and thus have he most overvalued property, will see the largest falls. Edinburgh, IMO, falls smack bang right into the middle of that category. It seems fairly straightforward. And the most simple theories are usually the best.

[coppercrutch]

 

I have read some undiluted BS on this site over the past 10 years or so and this post is up there with the best of them.

 

Which website opinions do you regurgitate as your own?

 

My particular favourites from your post (and there are many):-

 

"Endure carnage"

 

"Most people in the industry have zero clue about the large factors"

 

Priceless! Sure beats American Idol on a Sunday evening.

 

 

 

You have a chortle to yourself Chip. I am sure I will be the last one laughing.

 

And my opinions are mostly my own. Of course using knowledge that I have gained from a few different websites, blogs and other online material. Looking at all the evidence out there and coming to my own conclusion. Seems the sensible thing to do IMO.

[Sherlock]

Property threads are my favourite threads.

[Kinkster]

You have a chortle to yourself Chip. I am sure I will be the last one laughing.

 

And my opinions are mostly my own. Of course using knowledge that I have gained from a few different websites, blogs and other online material. Looking at all the evidence out there and coming to my own conclusion. Seems the sensible thing to do IMO.

 

Whilst not wishing to dampen your doomsday enthusiasm, I do think that some of your wider economic arguments have been picked up from some dubious websites, that may have their own agenda.

 

Tell me, what is your strategy to benefit/protect yourself from the carnage ?

[Sherlock]

Whilst not wishing to dampen your doomsday enthusiasm, I do think that some of your wider economic arguments have been picked up from some dubious websites, that may have their own agenda.

 

Tell me, what is your strategy to benefit/protect yourself from the carnage ?

 

I think i recall from the last property thread (I'm sure CC will clarify), that CC's strategy to protect himself from the carnage is to remain living with his parents.

 

The rest of us property owning chumps are doomed. That's why the market is drowing in subjects for sale - it's all the people who work in the industry getting out fast.

[rossi_1983]

Avoid Remax at all costs!

 

Have a mate in the industry, and the stories he tells about remax and their scams are unreal

[RobM]

You have a chortle to yourself Chip. I am sure I will be the last one laughing.

 

And my opinions are mostly my own. Of course using knowledge that I have gained from a few different websites, blogs and other online material. Looking at all the evidence out there and coming to my own conclusion. Seems the sensible thing to do IMO.

 

Source: the internet in other words.

[coppercrutch]

Whilst not wishing to dampen your doomsday enthusiasm, I do think that some of your wider economic arguments have been picked up from some dubious websites, that may have their own agenda.

 

Tell me, what is your strategy to benefit/protect yourself from the carnage ?

 

I have picked up arguments from various sources and from my own personal thoughts on the situation. I have been thinking for years all these 'good times' are coming to an end. I have found more knowledgeable people than myself who can actually go into this in detail.

 

My strategy has been documented on here before numerous times:

 

Have no debt.

Have savings in SAFE places. For example NS and I that are linked to inflation and not interest rates.

Staying at home just now saving up as much as I can before it gets too bad.

Investing a little in gold stocks in the hopes of offsetting savings losses due to inflation.

 

There are many many people who are thinking along the same lines as myself. Below is one example.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43121/shut-out-of-the-housing-market-thank-your-lucky-stars.html

 

And for anyone who thinks I am being overly dramatic here have a look at the following CNN clip.

 

These people are now talking about a DEPRESSION, for the uneducated that is an economic period that makes a RECESSION seem like a walk in the park. The last depression in the US was in 1929>.

 

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=dR7h8NBQU3E

 

I was as naive as the average person on this site up until about 2 years ago. Then I started actually delving into the details. I am convinced we are about to see seriously bad times. I advise everyone else out there to do the same.

 

Think for yourself. Listen to both sides of the argument, and make up your own mind. After thinking about this for a good while there is only one way I can see this ending up. Very very nasty.

 

And I will keep on with this line until people realise I am correct !!

[Chip Douglas]

I have picked up arguments from various sources and from my own personal thoughts on the situation. I have been thinking for years all these 'good times' are coming to an end. I have found more knowledgeable people than myself who can actually go into this in detail.

 

My strategy has been documented on here before numerous times:

 

Have no debt.

Have savings in SAFE places. For example NS and I that are linked to inflation and not interest rates.

Staying at home just now saving up as much as I can before it gets too bad.

Investing a little in gold stocks in the hopes of offsetting savings losses due to inflation.

 

There are many many people who are thinking along the same lines as myself. Below is one example.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43121/shut-out-of-the-housing-market-thank-your-lucky-stars.html

 

And for anyone who thinks I am being overly dramatic here have a look at the following CNN clip.

 

These people are now talking about a DEPRESSION, for the uneducated that is an economic period that makes a RECESSION seem like a walk in the park. The last depression in the US was in 1929>.

 

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=dR7h8NBQU3E

 

I was as naive as the average person on this site up until about 2 years ago. Then I started actually delving into the details. I am convinced we are about to see seriously bad times. I advise everyone else out there to do the same.

 

Think for yourself. Listen to both sides of the argument, and make up your own mind. After thinking about this for a good while there is only one way I can see this ending up. Very very nasty.

 

And I will keep on with this line until people realise I am correct !!

 

The country might slide into recession. It takes no genius to conclude that. Equally I have no doubt the economy will adapt and recover.

 

Whether you want to admit it or not, time has shown that heritable property is a sound, long term investment.

 

I wasn't laughing at your views, more at your insistence that you're some sort of in the know soothsayer.

 

You're also the master of sweeping generalisations. Tell me how, if you're not connected to the estate or legal industry (seeing as presently the majority of house purchases/sales and agency are dealt with by legal firms), you come to the conclusion that the industry have zero clue about the "larger factors".

 

Explain that one to me Mr JKB economy consultant. I'll tell you you're talking codswallop and that's not based upon reading the latest blog on alittleknowledgeisadangerousthing.com.

 

You're entertaining, I'll give you that.

[Chip Douglas]

 

There are many many people who are thinking along the same lines as myself. Below is one example.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43121/shut-out-of-the-housing-market-thank-your-lucky-stars.html

 

 

I think you've got that the wrong way around there.

[Sherlock]

I think you've got that the wrong way around there.

 

I had a look at that site and spotted this gem...

 

...And lastly, to the UK housing market. The fear has spread as far as the mainstream press now, with gloomy predictions reported across the broadsheets. But the most telling indicator of the rapid turnaround in sentiment was a straw poll I noticed on the thisismoney.co.uk website....

 

A straw poll on the thisismoney.co.uk website is indeed THE most telling indicator of the property meltdown.

 

Better get my property on the market.

[coppercrutch]

The country might slide into recession. It takes no genius to conclude that. Equally I have no doubt the economy will adapt and recover.

 

Whether you want to admit it or not, time has shown that heritable property is a sound, long term investment.

 

I wasn't laughing at your views, more at your insistence that you're some sort of in the know soothsayer.

 

You're also the master of sweeping generalisations. Tell me how, if you're not connected to the estate or legal industry (seeing as presently the majority of house purchases/sales and agency are dealt with by legal firms), you come to the conclusion that the industry have zero clue about the "larger factors".

 

Explain that one to me Mr JKB economy consultant. I'll tell you you're talking codswallop and that's not based upon reading the latest blog on alittleknowledgeisadangerousthing.com.

 

You're entertaining, I'll give you that.

 

I should just give up. The posters on here with a bit of sense know where I am coming from. I should just leave the rest of you to it.

 

I am, after all, just trying to do you a favour......

 

Ok as for the above question:

 

Go and find 10 estate agents or solicitors. Ask them what sub prime is. Ask them what fractional reserve banking is. Ask them what LIBOR is. Ask them what a CDO is.

 

If they all know the answer to all the above questions I will give you ?10,000.

 

I know I won't have to so this however, because the chances of even 1 estate agent/solicitor knowing what all the above are is very slim.

 

And the above things I have noted ? These are what are going to affect the economy in this country, and ultimately house prices for at least the next 5 years.

 

This is why I know more than these people. This is why I am better prepared to give my opinion on the likely outcome of events than these people. This is why I can state all the above without having to resort to Wikipedia like I imagine you are doing at this very moment.

 

This is why you should listen to me. Not because I am some sort of 'soothsayer', but simply because I have my head screwed on, and I can use common sense to see what is likely to happen in the future.

 

An almighty boom, will be followed by an almighty bust. Simple as that.

 

PS. If anyone is wanting a quality and simple description of what this 'sub prime' is actually all about click on the link below. (Bottom left to scroll through the pages.) I know 45 sounds a lot but it's not really.

 

http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true

[heart of lothian]

The country might slide into recession. It takes no genius to conclude that. Equally I have no doubt the economy will adapt and recover.

 

Whether you want to admit it or not, time has shown that heritable property is a sound, long term investment.

 

 

 

Property is not a sound long term investment for making money. It does however help to preserve wealth once you have it. If property had always provided good returns none of us would be able to afford a house at this point!

[Chip Douglas]

I should just give up. The posters on here with a bit of sense know where I am coming from. I should just leave the rest of you to it.

 

I am, after all, just trying to do you a favour......

 

Ok as for the above question:

 

Go and find 10 estate agents or solicitors. Ask them what sub prime is. Ask them what fractional reserve banking is. Ask them what LIBOR is. Ask them what a CDO is.

 

If they all know the answer to all the above questions I will give you ?10,000.

 

I know I won't have to so this however, because the chances of even 1 estate agent/solicitor knowing what all the above are is very slim.

 

And the above things I have noted ? These are what are going to affect the economy in this country, and ultimately house prices for at least the next 5 years.

 

This is why I know more than these people. This is why I am better prepared to give my opinion on the likely outcome of events than these people. This is why I can state all the above without having to resort to Wikipedia like I imagine you are doing at this very moment.

 

This is why you should listen to me. Not because I am some sort of 'soothsayer', but simply because I have my head screwed on, and I can use common sense to see what is likely to happen in the future.

 

An almighty boom, will be followed by an almighty bust. Simple as that.

 

PS. If anyone is wanting a quality and simple description of what this 'sub prime' is actually all about click on the link below. (Bottom left to scroll through the pages.) I know 45 sounds a lot but it's not really.

 

http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true

 

I'm a banking and property finance lawyer. If you ask 10 banking lawyers, you'll get 10 succinct answers.

 

Sub-prime is having no material effect on Scottish clearing banks and their appetite for commercial lending, that's the view of the Head of Property of at least two of the clearing banks I deal with on a daily basis. In their words "business as usual" and their views are that this applies locally to domestic lending (albeit there has been a tangible slowing of the market).

 

There's no point in picking random banking terminology and using that as a basis for your arguments.

 

The problem with your internet sources are that they take little consideration of local factors and the Scottish market in isolation, you really need to step your game up here. You can quote as many generic banking sites as you like but you're not working at the coal face now, are you?

 

And as for doing me a favour or anyone else for that matter, what are you havering about? I've speculated and accumulated on a personal level for 7 years now and my property is currently sitting with a sizeable chunk of equity, I can stomach a little slow down in the short term.

 

That's the name of the game. Many others are in the same boat. Apart from you of course, as you seem scared of the big bad crash.

 

[Chip Douglas]

The country might slide into recession. It takes no genius to conclude that. Equally I have no doubt the economy will adapt and recover.

 

Whether you want to admit it or not' date=' time has shown that heritable property is a sound, long term investment.

 

 

 

Property is not a sound long term investment for making money. It does however help to preserve wealth once you have it. If property had always provided good returns none of us would be able to afford a house at this point![/quote']

 

You require capital in the first place but you can't deny property is a safe bet in the long term.

[coppercrutch]

The country might slide into recession. It takes no genius to conclude that. Equally I have no doubt the economy will adapt and recover.

 

Whether you want to admit it or not' date=' time has shown that heritable property is a sound, long term investment.

 

 

 

[b']Property is not a sound long term investment for making money. It does however help to preserve wealth once you have it.[/b] If property had always provided good returns none of us would be able to afford a house at this point!

 

Exactly. Buy property at the right time and you can make money. Buy it at the wrong time and you can lose money. Buy it and plan to sit on it for 30+ years, and it will be a sound long term investment....

 

But that is the crux of the problem. Property should not be an 'investment' for most people. It should be a place to live. Of course people will always look to invest in it, they always have. But when you see some bus driver ( No offence to any bus drivers out there) talking about their 'portfolio' of properties and how they have zero savings, then you know things are all wrong.

 

These things will even themselves out. They always have, and they always will. Bubble gets bigger, bubble bursts.

 

This is why anyone saying there will be no fall in prices in Edinburgh is, IMO, living in hope rather than the real World.