Estate Agents! Advice....

[coppercrutch]

Not posted on this thread for a while. I think the press are finally starting to catch up with me...

 

Still I thought I would make a few points:

 

(1) Scottish Property

 

Even the uber positive Scotsman/EN "Edinburgh property prices will never fall, our economy is great don't worry" is starting to gradually sneak in the odd 'negative' story to ease the upcoming blows.

 

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Scotland-begins-to-feel-the.3984843.jp

 

"SCOTLAND will not escape the housing-market slump, with prices falling within six months, a leading economist has warned."

 

"If there is a decline, it would not be a very marked decline. We might get a decline from June to July, but we are not looking at a substantial decline in value over, say, what the prices were a year ago."

 

Leading Economist - 16 Apr 2008

 

Funny that. I have been saying the same timing for a lot longer, and I am no leading economist....

 

average house sells for less than 229k up to July 2008 then they will have to publish falling 'year on year' prices in Edinburgh for the first time in probably 15 years. That will be massive news. Momentum on the way up could very easily turn to momentum on the way down. Don't say I didn't warn you

 

CC - 2 Mar 2008

 

Of course the Scotsman story is still generally positive, but it always will be. They are in bed with the Edinburgh property and Estate Agent gang. Only so long they can keep spouting drivel before they have to admit he truth however....

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

(2) Banks, RBS in specific:

 

As for RBS I am not arguing with anything you have said above. The main problem however is that at this time every bank would like to have a big wad of cash/capital sitting in the back ground. RBS would have had this except they decided to go and buy a portion of AMRO for about ~50 billion cash. ( Correct the figures if wrong I can't be bothered looking !! )

 

"They have got rid of their 'savings' at precisely the time they should have held on to them."

 

"I think banks will usually make money, but not always. Citigroup, the Worlds largest bank, are losing money this year. If it can happen to them it can happen to RBS or any other huge bank. I don't think they will go bust or anything but they may have to go to the ECB ot the BOE to ask for a short term capital injection."

 

CC - 6 Mar 2008 (Although I have been saying this for much much longer, feel free to search for proof if you wish….

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7353774.stm

 

"Cash reserves at RBS were stretched by its leading role in last year's takeover of the Dutch bank ABN Amro."

 

"Having spent the best part of 70bn euros ($111bn; ?56bn) last year on the biggest bank in Holland, they now have the smallest cushion relative to risk on their balance sheet of any bank in Europe"

 

BBC - 18 Apr 2008

 

 

It is almost guaranteed they have already gone to the BoE for a short term capital injection. Of course with the altered rules they don't have to inform the public. Clearly this has not been enough though and so are having to ask their own shareholders for an 'injection'. Unfortunately for RBS they can't exactly keep this quiet...

 

Have a look at what the papers and news are telling you today. Have a look at what a random poster on JKB has been telling you for months. Ask yourself WHY THE DELAY...

 

Then feel free to stick your heads in the sand and hope it all goes away.

[Boaby Ewing]

Gold just lost 3 percent in about an hour.

 

Just thought you'd like to know.

 

;-)

[coppercrutch]

Gold just lost 3 percent in about an hour.

 

Just thought you'd like to know.

 

;-)

 

Cheers Dave !! Good to know it has risen that amount int he last week then...

 

Markets are so volatile at the moment it is mental.(Not that I am an expert on it by any means). No-one seems to know what the **** is going on. RBS announce they are in the deep doo doo. What happens ? Their shares go up 3%

 

All fun and games though !!

 

I think 2 things are a certainty however.

 

(1) Our finance based economy is in for a couple of VERY hard years.

(2) Our property based economy is in for a couple of VERY hard years.

 

Britain is goosed....If Brown is not out within 6 months I will be shocked. He could of course blame the ex-chancellor for all this mess. Only one small problem with that plan though....

[Bigsmak]

Sold My flat today.

 

I had it for a little over 2 years and made a very nice profit from it. To be honest I took ?5k less than I would have got for it if I sold it October last year, - In My Opinion! -

 

However, I made a lot of cash on it in 2 years and if I had been renting a place of similar size I would have been down ?12-15k

 

I bought my first property at 19 years old in 1996. I have just turned 31 on Tuesday, ( Happy Birthday to me ) and feel I have done very, very well out of the property boom. I have decided to rent for 6-12 months with my Girlfriend to see what happens with the market. When I feel it's right I will buy again.

 

So... I need to invest my cash lump sum that I have... Not going to play with gold CC, don't have the balls for that... But might do a stock market challenge, say invest 2k and see if I can build it up by day trading. God that means I'll have to read the FT again. Thought those days were behind me!

 

Maybe we should do a ?1k to ?10k kickback challenge on the Stockmarket.. Much more fun than the 1 goal or more thread!!

[coppercrutch]

Sold My flat today.

 

I had it for a little over 2 years and made a very nice profit from it. To be honest I took ?5k less than I would have got for it if I sold it October last year, - In My Opinion! -

 

However, I made a lot of cash on it in 2 years and if I had been renting a place of similar size I would have been down ?12-15k

 

I bought my first property at 19 years old in 1996. I have just turned 31 on Tuesday, ( Happy Birthday to me ) and feel I have done very, very well out of the property boom. I have decided to rent for 6-12 months with my Girlfriend to see what happens with the market. When I feel it's right I will buy again.

 

So... I need to invest my cash lump sum that I have... Not going to play with gold CC, don't have the balls for that... But might do a stock market challenge, say invest 2k and see if I can build it up by day trading. God that means I'll have to read the FT again. Thought those days were behind me!

 

Maybe we should do a ?1k to ?10k kickback challenge on the Stockmarket.. Much more fun than the 1 goal or more thread!!

 

Good work Bigsmak. No need to rush in just now. As for investments who knows at this moment. There seems to be no logic or sense in share prices at the moment. I am sticking with 4k in Gold shares. That is all I have the balls to risk. Day trading is a scary thing. I have 1k sitting there ready to go so I may just dive in. **** it why not !!

 

BTW - I think by renting in the next couple of years you should save a nice little bit.

 

A little update on Edinburgh housing stats at the moment. I know this is the busiest time of the year and all (Apparently:rolleyes:) but these stats should scare anyone thinking the market in Edinburgh is not dropping.

 

ESPC - Edinburgh Property for sale or to rent, this is on the front page of the ESPC home page if you want to keep a check:

 

13 Mar 2008 - 6400

 

21 Apr 2008 - 8593.

 

Holy **** that is some jump !! But according to the EN a few days ago this increase in supply means the market is in good shape.

 

I would post a link to their story but it has been removed. I wonder why. The headline was "Crisis, what crisis? number of homes up for sale in the Capital soars"

 

Yeah, that is a good sign isn't it.

 

The above figures show a 34% Increase in the number of properties for sale or to rent in Edinburgh in a matter of 5 weeks.

 

As I have said since last year. July will be the ending of the Edinburgh property market. Negative YOY falls for the first time ever. What is that going to do to the masses of 'investors' who are clearly already trying to jump ship................

 

[Bigsmak]

Saw the same headline in the metro yesterday. (when I was in A&E waiting for my double arm break to be seen to!) -

 

Basic supply an demand.... more houses for sale = less people will be willing to accept for their property = Buyers dictating the sale price = inevitable fall in prices.

 

Lets see how many more homes go up for sale in the next few months....

[coppercrutch]

Saw the same headline in the metro yesterday. (when I was in A&E waiting for my double arm break to be seen to!) -

 

Basic supply an demand.... more houses for sale = less people will be willing to accept for their property = Buyers dictating the sale price = inevitable fall in prices.

 

Lets see how many more homes go up for sale in the next few months....

 

That would seem to be the logical solution !! I really think the 'investors' are getting out fast now. Or at least trying to.

 

You only have to look down in the New Town to see what is happening. In places like Fettes Row, Cumberland St etc.. there are loads more up for sale or for rent than usual. These are some of the most prestigious addresses in the whole City. When people are having trouble selling there, well that tells it's own story.

[flecktimus]

That would seem to be the logical solution !! I really think the 'investors' are getting out fast now. Or at least trying to.

 

You only have to look down in the New Town to see what is happening. In places like Fettes Row, Cumberland St etc.. there are loads more up for sale or for rent than usual. These are some of the most prestigious addresses in the whole City. When people are having trouble selling there, well that tells it's own story.

 

Thought we had managed to bury this thread;)

[coppercrutch]

Thought we had managed to bury this thread;)

 

I think there are a fair few people who would like this thread buried. That does not include myself.

 

I imagine a fair few couldn't bare to come out and admit that maybe ol' crazy poster CC had some decent points all along.....

 

In particular those who were saying I was very wrong to think RBS were possibly in trouble are conspicuous by their absence.

[Peebo]

Thought we had managed to bury this thread;)

 

I'm pleased to note our resident property expert finally grasps the concept of supply and demand, though.

[coppercrutch]

I'm pleased to note our resident property expert finally grasps the concept of supply and demand, though.

 

Been rather quiet recently Peebo.....

 

And this whole thing has to do with supply and demand of Credit. The demand and supply for property is only a small part of this ridiculous bubble. I have said this over and over again. And I will be proven right. In fact I have been proven correct in a fair few of my 'crazy' thoughts already.

 

:)

[Peebo]

Been rather quiet recently Peebo.....

 

I haven't read anything I felt moved to comment on.

[coppercrutch]

I haven't read anything I felt moved to comment on.

 

I see. So when you think I am talking out of my arse you are happy to come on here and lay down paragraph after paragraph.

 

But if I post something that either backs up my argument, or in the case of RBS PROVES IT, you don't fancy commenting on it... Interesting.

 

Not many people come on JKB, put out 'crazy' opinions that get vilified, and are prepared to tough it out until they are proven correct. I however am more than prepared to do that.

 

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."

 

That Ghandi knew what he was talking about. I reckon I am near stage 4 already. A lot faster than I imagined.

[Peebo]

I see. So when you think I am talking out of my arse you are happy to come on here and lay down paragraph after paragraph.

 

But if I post something that either backs up my argument, or in the case of RBS PROVES IT, you don't fancy commenting on it... Interesting.

 

Generally, I am more likely to comment on a statement when both A) I have an opinion on the subject matter and I disagree with the statement.

 

Not many people come on JKB, put out 'crazy' opinions that get vilified, and are prepared to tough it out until they are proven correct. I however am more than prepared to do that.

 

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."

 

That Ghandi knew what he was talking about. I reckon I am near stage 4 already. A lot faster than I imagined.

 

Your Ghandi quotation is not really relevant here, is it?

[coppercrutch]

Generally, I am more likely to comment on a statement when both A) I have an opinion on the subject matter and I disagree with the statement.

 

 

 

Your Ghandi quotation is not really relevant here, is it?

 

I get A) but surprises me? I imagine most people quite like to post when in agreement with another.

 

And the Ghandi quotation is perfectly relevant !!

 

IGNORE - When I first starting posting about this last July I was more or less ignored.

 

RIDICULE - Once similar rumblings started to come out in the media people started to scorn me and give their reasons why 'Edinburgh will be different'.

 

FIGHT - Then these things started to get closer to home for these posters. They started to think I may have had a point after all. They got a little scared as my predictions will have a bad effect on their personal situation. That is when they started really going for it.

 

YOU WIN - Now when I post more and more snippets of information there is barely a hint of argument.......last year I would have had numerous replies within seconds

 

Almost fits perfectly. Cheers Ghandi. Very smart guy.

[flecktimus]

I get A) but surprises me? I imagine most people quite like to post when in agreement with another.

 

And the Ghandi quotation is perfectly relevant !!

 

IGNORE - When I first starting posting about this last July I was more or less ignored.

 

RIDICULE - Once similar rumblings started to come out in the media people started to scorn me and give their reasons why 'Edinburgh will be different'.

 

FIGHT - Then these things started to get closer to home for these posters. They started to think I may have had a point after all. They got a little scared as my predictions will have a bad effect on their personal situation. That is when they started really going for it.

 

YOU WIN - Now when I post more and more snippets of information there is barely a hint of argument.......last year I would have had numerous replies within seconds

 

Almost fits perfectly. Cheers Ghandi. Very smart guy.

 

YOU WIN Perhaps we dont think you snippets are relevant

[Peebo]

I get A) but surprises me? I imagine most people quite like to post when in agreement with another.

 

Fair dues. I generally see no point in it - a general Kickback love-in would be rather tedious.

 

And the Ghandi quotation is perfectly relevant !!

 

IGNORE - When I first starting posting about this last July I was more or less ignored.

 

RIDICULE - Once similar rumblings started to come out in the media people started to scorn me and give their reasons why 'Edinburgh will be different'.

 

FIGHT - Then these things started to get closer to home for these posters. They started to think I may have had a point after all. They got a little scared as my predictions will have a bad effect on their personal situation. That is when they started really going for it.

 

YOU WIN - Now when I post more and more snippets of information there is barely a hint of argument.......last year I would have had numerous replies within seconds

 

Almost fits perfectly. Cheers Ghandi. Very smart guy.

 

I was actually refering to its relevance in terms of your observation of my recent posts, or lack thereof.

 

I love this sentence, by the by:

 

"They got a little scared as my predictions will have a bad effect on their personal situation."

 

This truly shows you have arrived as an expert! Now perhaps you can understand an earlier point of mine about people in a position of influence not always stating or writing their personal opinion (eg Gordon Brown, Times Business editor, and the other idiots) for fear of the effect it may have.

[coppercrutch]

Fair dues. I generally see no point in it - a general Kickback love-in would be rather tedious.

 

 

 

I was actually refering to its relevance in terms of your observation of my recent posts, or lack thereof.

 

I love this sentence, by the by:

 

"They got a little scared as my predictions will have a bad effect on their personal situation."

 

This truly shows you have arrived as an expert! Now perhaps you can understand an earlier point of mine about people in a position of influence not always stating or writing their personal opinion (eg Gordon Brown, Times Business editor, and the other idiots) for fear of the effect it may have.

 

I totally agree. But I think it would be giving some of these guys too much credit to think they knew what was happening all along. Some of them may well have and just kept their mouths shut. I imagine most just have little knowledge of basic economics.

 

Anyway this forum is full of everyday sort of people. And when I started this all last July I reckon there were maybe 2 or 3 other posters who agreed with me, if that.

 

So we don't just stand out compared to the PM and newspaper editors. We stand out compared other average punters. What I have predicted has been COMPLETELY against the grain. And it looks like a lot of what I said was spot on.

 

BTW seems the lenders have no intentions of helping out borrowers. Fair dos. Borrowers have been getting helped for the last 10 years. If they are not in a position to cope with a few bad years they should never have got the loan in the first place. That is why these problems started. That is how they will end. Lenders are starting to lend HOW THEY SHOULD HAVE FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS.

 

What most people forget is the last 5 years have been ABNORMAL. What we have just now is NORMAL.

 

People only getting loans they can afford, and with a deposit if it is for a property. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. Long may it continue.

[coppercrutch]

YOU WIN Perhaps we dont think you snippets are relevant

 

For anyone who has any interest in the following my snippets are relevant:

 

Property

Loans

Mortgages

Inflation

Financial industry

World Economy

How to protect your savings

Jobs

Currency fluctuations

 

I would imagine most people have an interest in the above. Maybe I am wrong.

[Peebo]

Anyway this forum is full of everyday sort of people. And when I started this all last July I reckon there were maybe 2 or 3 other posters who agreed with me, if that.

 

So we don't just stand out compared to the PM and newspaper editors. We stand out compared other average punters. What I have predicted has been COMPLETELY against the grain. And it looks like a lot of what I said was spot on.

 

So apart from 2 or 3 people agreeing with you, you were more or less ignored? That's COMPLETELY going against the grain, is it?

[Peebo]

For anyone who has any interest in the following my snippets are relevant:

 

Property

Loans

Mortgages

Inflation

Financial industry

World Economy

How to protect your savings

Jobs

Currency fluctuations

 

I would imagine most people have an interest in the above. Maybe I am wrong.

 

While they are probably subjects relevant to most, perhaps it is your opinions (and those borrowed from elsewhere) about, and interpretations of, them that are not of interest to some.

[flecktimus]

For anyone who has any interest in the following my snippets are relevant:

 

Property

Loans

Mortgages

Inflation

Financial industry

World Economy

How to protect your savings

Jobs

Currency fluctuations

 

I would imagine most people have an interest in the above. Maybe I am wrong.

 

And you are an expert in all the above subjects

[Sheriff Fatman]

I think there are a fair few people who would like this thread buried. That does not include myself.

 

I imagine a fair few couldn't bare to come out and admit that maybe ol' crazy poster CC had some decent points all along.....

 

In particular those who were saying I was very wrong to think RBS were possibly in trouble are conspicuous by their absence.

 

There is nothing unusual about rights issues. There were at least 7 last year by fairly major companies and we didn't see you getting your knickers in a twist then. Rights issues might not be as common as they used to be, but they are still a fairly standard method companies use.

[coppercrutch]

There is nothing unusual about rights issues. There were at least 7 last year by fairly major companies and we didn't see you getting your knickers in a twist then. Rights issues might not be as common as they used to be, but they are still a fairly standard method companies use.

 

My goodness. Talk about naive.

 

Let me explain it. The difference with THIS rights issue is it is FORCED. RBS have not chosen to do it. I will point out a few details below.

 

1 month ago - RBS announce record profits and Sir Fred Goodwin states RBS will not be looking to raise any new capital in the near future, because they do not have to.

 

This week - RBS announce their US Mortgage right off's have increased from about ?3 billion to ?6 billion.

 

This week - RBS announce they are planning a rights issue that will raise 12 billion. This is because they have no capital due to their purchase of ABN Amro at exactly the WRONG time.

 

This week - RBS announce that they are looking at potentially selling (This is very clearly a 'come and get me' signal) their very successful insurance arm to raise even more capital.

 

I mean please have a think about it. Do you REALLY expect them just to come out to the press and say - "Well we didn't see this coming but we are royally ****ed"

 

As I have stated previously I do not think they will go bust. But they will be cutting costs left right and centre. Job losses in the thousands will be sooner rather than later.

 

 

RBS are desperate = FACT.

 

If you think otherwise you seriously need to read a little more about this situation.

 

A company that announces a ?10 billion 'profit' and then asks its shareholders for ?12 billion the next month is clearly not in a healthy financial state. I can't believe I even have to state this. It is so ****ing obvious.

[coppercrutch]

And you are an expert in all the above subjects

 

If an 'expert' is someone who knows more than 95% of the population about these things then yes. If not then no. All about definitions.

 

Either way my knowledge on the subject and predictions of what I have expected, and do expect to happen - shows I clearly know a lot about the subject.

 

I am simply here to provide information to people. I did not know all this stuff a few years back. I am glad I have made an effort to do so as it puts me in a far more powerful position than the majority of the population.

 

Knowledge is power, and when it comes to basic economics and finances the general population know so little it is amazing.

[Sheriff Fatman]

A company that announces a ?10 billion 'profit' and then asks its shareholders for ?12 billion the next month is clearly not in a healthy financial state. I can't believe I even have to state this. It is so ****ing obvious.

 

Many, many companies have had rights issues when they are in good profit. There is nothing in RBS's intentions that say that they are in any serious trouble and many financial analysts are saying that the RBS are possibly in a stronger position because of the rights issue.

[coppercrutch]

Many, many companies have had rights issues when they are in good profit. There is nothing in RBS's intentions that say that they are in any serious trouble and many financial analysts are saying that the RBS are possibly in a stronger position because of the rights issue.

 

I give up.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I give up.

 

Good, now if you could just get the rest of the Chicken Licken crowd that cry out that the world is ending because house prices are on the high side and a correction is overdue to shut up, then the markets might be able to get on with their jobs without getting bogged down in dealing with panic induced situations.

[coppercrutch]

Good, now if you could just get the rest of the Chicken Licken crowd that cry out that the world is ending because house prices are on the high side and a correction is overdue to shut up, then the markets might be able to get on with their jobs without getting bogged down in dealing with panic induced situations.

 

Brilliant !!

 

The only "panic induced situation" has been caused by lenders and borrowers getting themselves into far too much debt.

 

People don't like to face up to the truth if it is going to hurt them. You are clearly in that camp. If you have not been stupid and have not borrowed too much you will be fine. If not you may well be truly ****ed. Your decision, your choice. Deal with it.

 

It is amazing that people like myself who simply want house prices to come down to reasonable levels are described as 'doom-mongers' or 'Chicken Liken'.

 

I have still to find someone who can explain why....

 

I am the sensible reasonable one. Those who have been idiots and may soon be royally ****ed are not. Nae luck.

[BadVlad]

People who hail their own intelligence usually have no intelligence of note.

[coppercrutch]

So apart from 2 or 3 people agreeing with you, you were more or less ignored? That's COMPLETELY going against the grain, is it?

 

Saying over a year ago that Edinburgh house prices are going to fall ? TOTALLY AGAINST THE GRAIN.

Saying 6 months ago that RBS may be in serious trouble ? TOTALLY AGAINST THE GRAIN.

 

Saying that the economy is royally ****ed? TOTALLY AGAINST THE GRAIN.

 

It is amazing the reluctance of anyone to admit I have been providing a rather good service on this thread.

 

Oh well, if only a few people have been listening and have taken heed - that is good enough for me.

[coppercrutch]

People who hail their own intelligence usually have no intelligence of note.

 

Nothing about intelligence. Simply common sense. Simply trying to help people by pointing out what the media are very slow to report on. Simply sticking up for myself when I have been called allsorts for simply having a different opinion to the masses. Simply pointing out that my advice all along may actually have been worth listening too.

 

Well sorry for that. Maybe I should have just shut up months ago when everyone was telling me I was talking nonsense.....

 

Nah, that is not my style, you see unlike many posters on this site I have balls.

[Sherlock]

In case anyone's interested....

 

This weekend Scotland on Sunday proves that it's not all doom and gloom in the Scottish property market with the Scottish Property Price Guide free inside atHome magazine.

 

This guide, in conjunction with myhouseprice.com reveals the truth about Scotland's property market - you may be in for a few pleasant surprises. PLUS there are 10 free house price searches, worth ?10 for every reader.

[coppercrutch]

In case anyone's interested....

 

Brilliant. This pretty much means we are there already.

 

"Scottish Property Price Guide free inside atHome magazine"

 

I assume everyone knows "athome" magazine is 99% supported by advertising from those interested in talking the market up....

 

Why don't you buy it yourself and note the number of adverts for 'special offers' and builders queing up to pay your deposit for you !!! What a nice bunch of chaps those guys are. Offering you money for nothing. Wow these boys are generous.

 

Once you have a 'special guide' telling you that everyone has not gone tits up ?

 

You know everything has gone tits up

 

That is good news for a lot of people in this country, not bad. I do find it offensibe that they class HOMES falling in price to reasonable levels as 'Doom and gloom'. Seems like a good thing to me.

 

A houseprice crash is a foregone conclusion. I just hope the world economy doesn't collapse at the same time !!

 

 

PS. For anyone who thinks things are all good in Edinburgh do the following: Walk down Dundas St. When you get to Cumberland St ( One of Edinburgh most prestigious addresses ) look left and right. Then have a think about what you see. This is the reality people. Not what the chumps at the ESPC or the Evening News want you to hear about.

 

[Bonnie Prince Charlie]

I actually stay in the Cumberland street area and have done so for several years. I really don't think there are much more houses for sale at this time of year than in recent years. It is a fact that this is the peak time for people putting their houses on the market.

[Chip Douglas]

I actually stay in the Cumberland street area and have done so for several years. I really don't think there are much more houses for sale at this time of year than in recent years. It is a fact that this is the peak time for people putting their houses on the market.

 

No, no, no.

 

Open your eyes, your whole street is up for sale and each and every one of those house owners is desperate to escape impending financial ruin.

 

You heard it here first!

[The Old Tolbooth]

For anyone that's interested, mortgage biz across the industry as a whole is down 46% compared to this time last year, quite a scary stat!

[coppercrutch]

For anyone that's interested, mortgage biz across the industry as a whole is down 46% compared to this time last year, quite a scary stat!

 

Mr Mitchell !! These people do not understand the basic rules.

 

I will spell it out for them. AGAIN. It does not matter if someone wants to buy an 'apartment' - if no-one will lend them the cash they will never buy the place.

 

It is pretty simple .

[coppercrutch]

I actually stay in the Cumberland street area and have done so for several years. I really don't think there are much more houses for sale at this time of year than in recent years. It is a fact that this is the peak time for people putting their houses on the market.

 

Tell me the last time there were 15 flats up for sale in your street.....

 

1970

 

1960

 

1987

 

Wake up to reality.

[blairdin]

I had a very informal chat with an estate agent today.

 

They seemed to think I would have no problem selling my place (2 bedroom tenement flat in Falkirk) this summer, it's just that what might have taken 6 weeks before might take more like 3 months. They certainly don't expect my place to be worth less now than it was in November/December - quite the opposite.

 

There's alot of scaremongering going on and I have to admit I was anxious about the prospect of selling my place this summer if work takes me to London. After doing a little digging myself I am feeling very reassured.

[Chip Douglas]

I had a very informal chat with an estate agent today.

 

They seemed to think I would have no problem selling my place (2 bedroom tenement flat in Falkirk) this summer, it's just that what might have taken 6 weeks before might take more like 3 months. They certainly don't expect my place to be worth less now than it was in November/December - quite the opposite.

 

There's alot of scaremongering going on and I have to admit I was anxious about the prospect of selling my place this summer if work takes me to London. After doing a little digging myself I am feeling very reassured.

 

It's a fair point. The media sensationalism is bound to create nervy sellers. Don't accept anything less than your projected price, you'll get a buyer eventually at the right price.

[neobis]

Mr Mitchell !! These people do not understand the basic rules.

 

I will spell it out for them. AGAIN. It does not matter if someone wants to buy an 'apartment' - if no-one will lend them the cash they will never buy the place.

 

It is pretty simple .

 

As said many moons ago, 100% agree.

[davemclaren]

For anyone that's interested, mortgage biz across the industry as a whole is down 46% compared to this time last year, quite a scary stat!

 

Must be tough times for yourself.

[coppercrutch]

It's a fair point. The media sensationalism is bound to create nervy sellers. Don't accept anything less than your projected price, you'll get a buyer eventually at the right price.

 

Holy **** some people just don't get do they ?

 

This same MEDIA SENSATIONALISM created NERVY BUYERS for the last 5 years. This has caused people to go out and buy places they cannot actually afford. This has caused most of the issues we are seeing now in the housing/financial markets.

 

Funny how I didn't see you coming on here and COMPLAINING about the MEDIA SENSATIONALISM on the way up. You can't have your cake an eat it. So what is it to be.......

 

Now people are actually bothering to think about what they are doing. Sensible thinking has returned.

 

Why are people so slow to wake up to this ? I hope my rantings and ravings are FINALLY getting through to people. It has taken almost a year...

 

Your home will lose about 30-50% of its value in the next 5 years Chip. Get over it. You clearly haven't been too bothered when the opposite happened. Accept the good times with the bad.

[coppercrutch]

I had a very informal chat with an estate agent today.

 

They seemed to think I would have no problem selling my place (2 bedroom tenement flat in Falkirk) this summer, it's just that what might have taken 6 weeks before might take more like 3 months. They certainly don't expect my place to be worth less now than it was in November/December - quite the opposite.

 

There's alot of scaremongering going on and I have to admit I was anxious about the prospect of selling my place this summer if work takes me to London. After doing a little digging myself I am feeling very reassured.

 

Work it out would you. Why do so many people who are clearly intelligent turn to idiots when it comes to property ?

 

So it is going to take you ages to sell it ? But it will be 'worth' more than you thought ? THINK ABOUT IT !!!

 

Don't believe a word your EA tells you. They have no clue. Get your house sold BEFORE July, even if you have to drop the price.

 

You see EA's will tell you over and over again - "Don't worry you will get what you want for it". There is no logic behind this. It is simply hope.

 

After it fails to sell in 6 months they will quickly change their tune. Problem for you is they wont give you any compensation for this !!!

 

Good luck. Get rid off ASAP. You still have a few months before the general population actually wake up to what is happening.

[coppercrutch]

As said many moons ago, 100% agree.

 

Why thank you !!! There are a few of us on this site who have a clue !!

 

Still in the minority however. Slowly changing though.

 

My free education policy is slowly sinking in !!!

[coppercrutch]

More intersting news. In the same week that the BoE gave lenders a free swap of ?50 billion they have now raised their mortgage rates.....

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/26/nfinance126.xml

 

"The country's largest mortgage lender has put up its borrowing rates for the second time in eight days, with some deals rising by more than half a percentage point."

 

Simple reason behind this. The lenders have finally worked out what some of us have known for years: Too much lending causes too many problems.

 

They are now holding back and picking and choosing who they lend too. About time too. If only they had bothered to heed this advice years ago then none of this nonsense would have happened.

 

And to think this is classed as 'doom mongering' !!!!

 

How ridiculous. It is quite the opposite.

[coppercrutch]

Just a quick note Blairdin. I assume you are aware that prices have shot up in Falkirk over the past few years ? Much has been due to people getting into Buy to let. Their favourite property is a 2 bed flat. Now BTL is effectively dead. So quite possibly half* of those who would be looking to buy your flat are now out of the market. It is clear what the result will be. After a quick look it seems the average price for a 2 bed flat is about 90-100k in Falkirk ? Now that is not as overpriced as in Edinburgh. Bit then no offence but Falkirk is not exactly the nicest place. What would the average salary be ? Maybe 20k ish. So to buy a 2 bed flat in Falkirk costs about 4-5 times the average salary. That is way out of sync with the long term average. (Probably 2-3 times salary for a basic 2 bed flat)

 

Be smart and cut the price a little to get out before the rest wake up to reality. Good luck. I mean that.

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article3818913.ece

 

* My rough guestimate.

[coppercrutch]

Shouls have said Blairdin. This is just my opinion. I may be wrong. But I don't think so.

 

Do your own research. Really look into the details. Speak to people around you that are doing the same. Knock on the door of someone trying to sell their 2 bed flat. Simply ask them how much interest they have had. Why not ? Nothing to lose. Most people I imagine with be honest with you. Many EA's will not. Their income depends on commision. That clouds their judgement.

 

After your own research make your own mind up. It does astound me how much trust people put in EA's. They have no qualifications. Many have little experience. Most want to get as much commisions as possible. Some are corrupt.

 

I personally wouldn't take their opinion as anything more than a guess. They simply think that anything that happens down south will magically stop at Hadrians Wall. If you really think about it that is ridiculous thinking.

 

2 years ago they said the US may be in trouble but it would be a 'Soft landing' and it is 'different there' for the housing market - Now it is tits up.

 

6 months ago they said the UK (Specifically England) may be in trouble but it would be a 'Soft landing' as it is 'different here' for the housing market - Now it is tits up.

Now they are saying that Scotland may be in trouble but it will be a 'Soft landing' as it is 'different here' for the housing market -............... Work out what is coming next.

 

Not rocket science.

[Radio Ga Ga]

 

Your home will lose about 30-50% of its value in the next 5 years Chip. Get over it. You clearly haven't been too bothered when the opposite happened. Accept the good times with the bad.

 

Coppercrutch I have really enjoyed this thread over the past few weeks, particularly the 'banter' between you and Chip, hilarious at times !!

 

However, there is no way on earth that house prices in Edinburgh and the surrounding areas are going to be sitting at 30-50% below current levels in 5 years time, by this logic a house valued today at ?300k will be on the market in Spring 2013 for at most ?210k or as little as ?150k, sorry just can't see it

 

A wee suggestion why don't you and Chip have a wee spread bet for charity, get the average house price today minus 30% and use this as the start for the spread and let say ?10 per point, if houses fall 40% in five years Chip gives a ?100 to charity (He won't lose IMHO) however, if they only fall say 10% you would need to pay ?200....