Estate Agents! Advice....

[Tom Heaney]

You bevvied !!!

 

And no brainwashing by me. Just offering the other side of the story.

 

Although I am a little peeved the media seem to want to tag along on my bandwagon now.

 

Where were they last year !!

 

CC, mind as Hearts fans we know just how wrong the Media can be

[coppercrutch]

CC, mind as Hearts fans we know just how wrong the Media can be

 

Very true.

 

So what are the media in the US like nowadays ?

 

Gone to the other extreme by any chance - ridiculously negative all the time !!

 

It has to be something dramatic I suppose. Taking a sensible middle ground won't sell many papers............

[flecktimus]

If your looking for a nice cheap new flat in Edinburgh and have cash available.

 

http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/search-results.php?searchobj=property_search&offset=0&display=10&dbtype=sales

 

There are 7 flats ranging from 1 bed - 3 beds between ?100 - ?140,000

 

I am afraid to say this is the first real sign of the property market falling in Edinburgh.Only ever seen the occasional property for auction in Edinburgh.

 

Comparison from Rightmove

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/edit_search.rsp?s_lo=EH6+6JN&b=buy&psa=new&unique=true&search.x=69&search.y=13&search=Find+properties

[coppercrutch]

If your looking for a nice cheap new flat in Edinburgh and have cash available.

 

http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk/search-results.php?searchobj=property_search&offset=0&display=10&dbtype=sales

 

There are 7 flats ranging from 1 bed - 3 beds between ?100 - ?140,000

 

I am afraid to say this is the first real sign of the property market falling in Edinburgh.Only ever seen the occasional property for auction in Edinburgh.

 

Comparison from Rightmove

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/edit_search.rsp?s_lo=EH6+6JN&b=buy&psa=new&unique=true&search.x=69&search.y=13&search=Find+properties

 

 

(1) Cheap ?!! 140k for a 2 bed new build in Granton ? That is not cheap. That is about 5 times the average salary. Way more than the long term average. These will be sellling for way, way less than 100k in the not too distant future. I personally wouldn't touch them with a bargepole until they are stupidly cheap.

 

I don't think you really understand. This is ONLY JUST BEGINNING !! People in Edinburgh are only just waking up to the fact that property can go down in value as well as up. Inflation has not really kicked in yet. People haven't really been made redundant in large numbers yet.

 

We have at least 2 years of this to go. Probably more like 5. And you think this is a good time for someone with a bit of money to jump in ?!! Not if you want to get the best price. As I have always said 2012 looks like the time to do it. If you are interested. Even then the way this country is going I am thinking it will last for a lot longer.

 

 

(2) Why are you 'afraid to say' that it finally looks like Edinburgh property is falling ? This is a great thing in the long term.

 

What has been the disaster is a city with prices so out of kilter with reality it shuts people out. That is a bad thing. That has been based on greed and greed alone. That has now ended. Anyone who is has got into property recently(Last 3 years) to make a profit is ****ed. Nae luck. That is the way with investments. They go down as well as up.

 

The sooner we get back to classing houses as 'homes' the better. That will be when the average house in Edinbugh costs 3-4 times the average salary. On todays wages that is about 100k. Houses in Edinburgh today are roughly double the price they should be in the long term.

 

And one thing to remember about long term averages, they always reappear at some point.

[flecktimus]

(1) Cheap ?!! 140k for a 2 bed new build in Granton ? That is not cheap. That is about 5 times the average salary. Way more than the long term average. These will be sellling for way, way less than 100k in the not too distant future. I personally wouldn't touch them with a bargepole until they are stupidly cheap.

 

I don't think you really understand. This is ONLY JUST BEGINNING !! People in Edinburgh are only just waking up to the fact that property can go down in value as well as up. Inflation has not really kicked in yet. People haven't really been made redundant in large numbers yet.

 

We have at least 2 years of this to go. Probably more like 5. And you think this is a good time for someone with a bit of money to jump in ?!! Not if you want to get the best price. As I have always said 2012 looks like the time to do it. If you are interested. Even then the way this country is going I am thinking it will last for a lot longer.

 

 

(2) Why are you 'afraid to say' that it finally looks like Edinburgh property is falling ? This is a great thing in the long term.

 

What has been the disaster is a city with prices so out of kilter with reality it shuts people out. That is a bad thing. That has been based on greed and greed alone. That has now ended. Anyone who is has got into property recently(Last 3 years) to make a profit is ****ed. Nae luck. That is the way with investments. They go down as well as up.

 

The sooner we get back to classing houses as 'homes' the better. That will be when the average house in Edinbugh costs 3-4 times the average salary. On todays wages that is about 100k. Houses in Edinburgh today are roughly double the price they should be in the long term.

 

And one thing to remember about long term averages, they always reappear at some point.

 

Cant please some people.I give you a 3 bed flat with a 35% discount and you throw it back in my face:sad:

[coppercrutch]

Cant please some people.I give you a 3 bed flat with a 35% discount and you throw it back in my face:sad:

 

I appreciate what you are saying. Wasn't meaning to sound rude. Apologies.

 

However a 35% discount on what ? A price that no-one else is willing to pay ? I dont' really class that as a discount.

 

Nice flats in nicer areas of Edinburgh will have similar discounts in a couple of years. Why jump in now....................................

 

To be honest the speed of all this even surprises myself. I have seen this coming but the sheer pace is mental. Building stocks are goosed. As of today Barrats and Wimpey are more or less bankrupt. Barrat shareprice down 26% yesterday alone Debts of over ?1 billion (how ) and market value of ?300 million. That is pretty much bankrupt in my World.

 

Bank shares getting a tanking. RBS down over 8% today alone.

 

I really hope this is only just a serious housing crash and a harsh recession. That will be a good thing in the long term. The longer it goes on the longer it loos like it will be much, much worse.

 

And yes to use a common phrase( ) that would be a 'doomsday scenario'.

 

Fingers crossed the world's economy is not about to collapse. It is however a REAL possibility. If it happens my savings are screwed. Oh well !!

 

This country is screwed. Any ideas Flecktimus on a cunning plan to get out of here !!??

[Peebo]

This country is screwed. Any ideas Flecktimus on a cunning plan to get out of here !!??

 

Have you any thoughts on which countries are not goosed? Or where you would like to move to?

[coppercrutch]

Have you any thoughts on which countries are not goosed? Or where you would like to move to?

 

Nah that is the one problem with all this 'globalisation'. We have not looked at the negative side of this phenomena until now. Everything is linked. This **** is affecting everywhere.

 

I have lived in a fair few different countries already. Liked them all but not sure if I could stay permanently. I live like a travelling ***** afterall....

 

What about you ? I guess, IIRC, you work in some sort of finance place. People getting a little worried about things ?

 

I can't be bothered with this country going completely down the tubes.

[Peebo]

Nah that is the one problem with all this 'globalisation'. We have not looked at the negative side of this phenomena until now. Everything is linked. This **** is affecting everywhere.

 

I have lived in a fair few different countries already. Liked them all but not sure if I could stay permanently. I live like a travelling ***** afterall....

 

What about you ? I guess, IIRC, you work in some sort of finance place. People getting a little worried about things ?

 

I can't be bothered with this country going completely down the tubes.

 

Nah, I still don't work in finance.

 

I do, however, gain pretty good insight into what is going on in other parts of the world through my job.

 

Last week I was in what could, or should, be one of the richest countries in the world thanks to its natural resources, but there is no milk on the shelves and the place is like the wild west.

 

A few months ago I was in a country that was once the world's superpower, and now lumbers from one genuine crisis to another.

 

Today, as a child of no more than 4 leaned through our taxi window trying to punt us lottery tickets, my colleague commented that "we don't know how lucky we are to have been born where we were".

 

Obviously, it's all relative, but I can't help but chuckle at any hysterical proclamations about the demise of the British economy and society.

[CostaJambo]

Further evidence of a significant fall in the market, from a different perspective...

 

http://www.qsweek.com/nav?page=qsweek.gen_obj_redirects.news&fixture_news=7153639&resource=7153639&view_resource=7153639

 

"The average number of transactions per surveyor over the last three months is now at 17.4, the lowest figure since 1978."

[coppercrutch]

Nah, I still don't work in finance.

 

I do, however, gain pretty good insight into what is going on in other parts of the world through my job.

 

Last week I was in what could, or should, be one of the richest countries in the world thanks to its natural resources, but there is no milk on the shelves and the place is like the wild west.

 

A few months ago I was in a country that was once the world's superpower, and now lumbers from one genuine crisis to another.

 

Today, as a child of no more than 4 leaned through our taxi window trying to punt us lottery tickets, my colleague commented that "we don't know how lucky we are to have been born where we were".

 

Obviously, it's all relative, but I can't help but chuckle at any hysterical proclamations about the demise of the British economy and society.

 

But our society is now built on everyone getting everything they want.

 

People in these other countries can deal with hardship. They have had it tough before and know the score.

 

We live in a pansy country where many of the population are too lazy to work. Come the hard times we will be hit hard. And at the moment we are not a country that has any idea of how to live through the 'hard times'.

 

That is why I think the UK is goosed.

 

If you want to call that hysterical then fine. But one thing you have to remember is that every civilisation throughout history has looked indestructible. That is until they then collapsed almost overnight.

 

Now I hope this is NOT happening right now. But it has to happen sometime. Now is as good a time as any.

 

That is why I spend my life enjoying myself. Why not.

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

Quick update in case anyone is interested:

 

GORGIE

 

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

 

17th May:

 

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

 

20th May:

 

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

 

9th Jun:

 

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

 

So in the space of 6 months gone from maybe 2 one bedroom flats available in Gorgie for 125k to less - to 32 now available at 125k or less.

 

You heard it here first. At a rough guess one bed flats in Gorgie have already fallen by about 7% in nominal terms and 11% in real terms.

 

And this is before the vast majority are even aware. This is before the economy takes a serious tanking. This before a huge number of Polish decide they have had enough and head back home. This before the real effects of the credit crunch start to bite for the average person.

 

30-50% real falls in Edinburgh house prices..........at least. That outlook still 'delusional' and 'pie in the sky'.............................

 

* Don't have figures for this time. Just have to trust me on this one.

 

82% of your posts are garbage in nominal terms, in real terms 100% of your posts are nonsense.

[coppercrutch]

82% of your posts are garbage in nominal terms, in real terms 100% of your posts are nonsense.

 

Maybe.

 

But I bet you are not planning to buy a flat in Gorgie anytime soon, after reading my informative posts...

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

Maybe.

 

But I bet you are not planning to buy a flat in Gorgie anytime soon, after reading my informative posts...

 

No, my approach was better, find a burd who lives there and stay there at weekends!

[davemclaren]

No, my approach was better, find a burd who lives there and stay there at weekends!

 

You might find it easier, and quicker, to buy.

[coppercrutch]

No, my approach was better, find a burd who lives there and stay there at weekends!

 

Why do you want to waste you time with a burd !! Just get the football on and a few beers. Nae birds required.

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

You might find it easier, and quicker, to buy.

 

The cans of beer in the fridge were the 2nd best set of cans on offer at that establishment tho.

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

Why do you want to waste you time with a burd !! Just get the football on and a few beers. Nae birds required.

 

CC, ur in no position to give advice on Burds! Im not even sure your hetrosexual.

[coppercrutch]

CC, ur in no position to give advice on Burds! Im not even sure your hetrosexual.

 

Homophobe !!!

 

Just coz I like to double my odds doesn't make me gay. Just smart.

[coppercrutch]

Further evidence of a significant fall in the market, from a different perspective...

 

http://www.qsweek.com/nav?page=qsweek.gen_obj_redirects.news&fixture_news=7153639&resource=7153639&view_resource=7153639

 

"The average number of transactions per surveyor over the last three months is now at 17.4, the lowest figure since 1978."

 

Link to full report below:

 

 

http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/6B0B341B-774E-438C-B8DA-7731B52A03DA/0/hms_0508.pdf

 

Scotland Review:

 

The net balance of surveyors reported increasingly sharp price

declines.

 

New buyer enquiries fell for the fifth consecutive month, and at

twice the pace as last month.

 

New vendor instructions rose sharply

having fallen in the previous two months.

 

Surveyor confidence in the price outlook improved but it remains in

negative territory. Surveyor confidence in the sales increased for the

second consecutive month and is now firmly in positive territory.

 

So overall increasingly sharp price declines.Also the number of buyers going down at a faster pace than before. At the same time number of people wanting to sell up sharply.

 

Sounds to me like exactly what I was expecting. Loads of people trying to 'jump ship'. Only problem is nobody is interested in their properties at the high prices they want for them. Shock horror, who would have guessed...

 

A few interesting quotes below. Edinburgh is still blaming the media for this (Yawnnn) but at least they are being a little more realistic. As for Dunfermline well **** what can I say !!

Edinburgh ? Scotland

Anthony Perriam MRICS

Rettle and Co.

In Edinburgh, the switch in market

sentiment has been profound and

astonishingly rapid. The caution

imbued in purchasers by the media has

been compounded by a prudence among

professional advisors. This has

contributed to a wholesale inertia.

Despite these trends however, viewing

numbers remain strong and our website

has received record visitor levels ? more

than 10% up on May 2007.

 

 

Dunfermline and Environs? Scotland

Alasdair Seaton BSc MRICS

D M Hall

Supply now completely outstripping

demand. Sales running at a level of

about a third to a half of last year?s

levels. Lack of confidence due to

money supply problems. Few viewers.

Few first time buyers.

[Walter Payton]

Can't believe Coppercrutch hasn't picked up on this yet

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7462773.stm

[flecktimus]

Can't believe Coppercrutch hasn't picked up on this yet

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7462773.stm

 

He has bigger fish to fry with the Daily Telegraph

[coppercrutch]

I am done with this. It is no longer a question of 'if' but by how much.

 

Between 30-50% in real terms as I have said all along. I am thinking that may be a little conservative though.

 

With inflation the BoE will have to raise rates soon. Look what a lot of the lenders did when the BoE lowered rates - they raised their own.

 

If the BoE go ahead and raise rates well I can only imagine.

 

Just last week Nationwide raised many of their rates by up to 0.5%. Ouch.

 

I just hope I have work for the next 4 years to be able to get a nice wee place as planned...................

 

I think in this sort of situation the common theme is for just about everyone to get ****ed over.

 

Nice. Cheers Brown & Blair you *****.

 

[Chip Douglas]

I am done with this. It is no longer a question of 'if' but by how much.

 

Between 30-50% in real terms as I have said all along. I am thinking that may be a little conservative though.

 

With inflation the BoE will have to raise rates soon. Look what a lot of the lenders did when the BoE lowered rates - they raised their own.

 

If the BoE go ahead and raise rates well I can only imagine.

 

Just last week Nationwide raised many of their rates by up to 0.5%. Ouch.

 

I just hope I have work for the next 4 years to be able to get a nice wee place as planned...................

 

I think in this sort of situation the common theme is for just about everyone to get ****ed over.

 

Nice. Cheers Brown & Blair you *****.

 

 

I'm sick and tired of saying this, Edinburgh property prices will not suffer 30-50% falls.

 

The current value re-adjustment is healthy for the market in the long run.

 

Local markets will react differently, that is a fact and Edinburgh will not suffer to the same extent as markets in England. This has been discussed at length on this thread.

 

As an interesting look at local markets and their ability to buck the trend, look at Aberdeen.

[Domokun]

A few interesting quotes below. Edinburgh is still blaming the media for this (Yawnnn) but at least they are being a little more realistic. As for Dunfermline well **** what can I say !!

Edinburgh – Scotland

Anthony Perriam MRICS

Rettle and Co.

In Edinburgh, the switch in market

sentiment has been profound and

astonishingly rapid. The caution

imbued in purchasers by the media has

been compounded by a prudence among

professional advisors. This has

contributed to a wholesale inertia.

Despite these trends however, viewing

numbers remain strong and our website

has received record visitor levels – more

than 10% up on May 2007.

 

 

Dunfermline and Environs– Scotland

Alasdair Seaton BSc MRICS

D M Hall

Supply now completely outstripping

demand. Sales running at a level of

about a third to a half of last year’s

levels. Lack of confidence due to

money supply problems. Few viewers.

Few first time buyers.

 

Anyone who lives in Dunfermline will know that the massive current stock of new build housing (and many large scale developments still under way or due to start) would only be sustainable if demand was exceeding supply both here and, probably more importantly, in the Edinburgh market. There will still be migration across the bridge but, in my opinion, those who would have previously moved over as FTBers will now be waiting until prices inevitably fall or, if they are movers, are worried that the market over here will fall more sharply than the City and are perhaps sticking with their city pads just now.

 

For a wee bit of background on the housing situation here, there have been around 10,000 new homes built in the "Eastern Expansion" project since the turn of the decade. This is/was at the time the biggest growth of any town/city in Europe. This has seen Dunfermline almost double in physical size and grow population-wise into near-city status, although until a census is done it is difficult to say what it currently is. Pre-expansion the population of the town, not including Rosyth and other satellite towns/villages, was around 50,000. I'd probably guess it's about 75k or thereabouts now.

 

Anyway, what I'm saying is that any area where such massive development has occured and large numbers of mid-to high end housing (built on the promise that families would sell their 1-2 bedroom city flats and swap it for a 3-4 bed semi/detached house in a place with clean air, little or no Americans or junkies and still have enough left over to buy a Porsche) remain on the market. Supply has been outstripping demand here for a wee while I'd guess which is a pretty unique situation. This market has been totally reliant on both FTBers entering the system in order for native movers to buy these new places and of course the Edinburgh overspill. What is it they say? Those with the sharpest rises will see the sharpest falls?

 

I think I'll buy a caravan!

[coppercrutch]

Anyone who lives in Dunfermline will know that the massive current stock of new build housing (and many large scale developments still under way or due to start) would only be sustainable if demand was exceeding supply both here and, probably more importantly, in the Edinburgh market. There will still be migration across the bridge but, in my opinion, those who would have previously moved over as FTBers will now be waiting until prices inevitably fall or, if they are movers, are worried that the market over here will fall more sharply than the City and are perhaps sticking with their city pads just now.

 

For a wee bit of background on the housing situation here, there have been around 10,000 new homes built in the "Eastern Expansion" project since the turn of the decade. This is/was at the time the biggest growth of any town/city in Europe. This has seen Dunfermline almost double in physical size and grow population-wise into near-city status, although until a census is done it is difficult to say what it currently is. Pre-expansion the population of the town, not including Rosyth and other satellite towns/villages, was around 50,000. I'd probably guess it's about 75k or thereabouts now.

 

Anyway, what I'm saying is that any area where such massive development has occured and large numbers of mid-to high end housing (built on the promise that families would sell their 1-2 bedroom city flats and swap it for a 3-4 bed semi/detached house in a place with clean air, little or no Americans or junkies and still have enough left over to buy a Porsche) remain on the market. Supply has been outstripping demand here for a wee while I'd guess which is a pretty unique situation. This market has been totally reliant on both FTBers entering the system in order for native movers to buy these new places and of course the Edinburgh overspill. What is it they say? Those with the sharpest rises will see the sharpest falls?

 

I think I'll buy a caravan!

 

Indeed. That is what a common sense approach would tell you. From what I have heard Dunfermline is full of 'developments' that are all fine and dandy but just sitting in the middle of nowhere ? Lack of local shops, schools etc.. ? Is that true ?

 

 

Anyway as for Chip's latest 'Edinburgh will be different just because I say so' post.

 

I have given at least 5 reasons why Edinburgh will be hard hit. I have yet to have anyone refute any of them.

 

If anyone can give me 5 equally as strong arguments to say the opposite then fine.

 

I have however been waiting for close to 6 months for this.

 

Still waiting.....................

[Domokun]

Indeed. That is what a common sense approach would tell you. From what I have heard Dunfermline is full of 'developments' that are all fine and dandy but just sitting in the middle of nowhere ? Lack of local shops, schools etc.. ? Is that true ?

 

There are that many new areas I honestly couldn't tell you. I don't even recognise the place each time I drive to the big Tesco out that way. There are two new primary schools in the area I know that much.. Several supermarkets within the Duloch area or in close proximity. Also multiplex cinema, Dobbies, every possible fast food place you could imagine (apart from Burger King ). Bowling, bingo, swimming pool/leisure centre, new bus routes, some going to Edinburgh etc etc etc

 

Yeah, so I'd say that these folk are maybe being a little dramatic (or you were told this a while ago) but, like with any large new private estates anywhere, there seems to be an assumption by the builders that everyone drives. The days of a corner shop in every 2nd street are long gone in this consumerist age of mass-globalisation/standardisation. I can see why moving from an urban village like Gorgie for example, with its own wee high street, would be a culture shock but still sounds a wee bit dramatic.

 

As for "middle of nowhere", looking back to my college days in 2000 the very first new houses built seemed like that but now blend into the several thousand others.

[coppercrutch]

There are that many new areas I honestly couldn't tell you. I don't even recognise the place each time I drive to the big Tesco out that way. There are two new primary schools in the area I know that much.. Several supermarkets within the Duloch area or in close proximity. Also multiplex cinema, Dobbies, every possible fast food place you could imagine (apart from Burger King ). Bowling, bingo, swimming pool/leisure centre, new bus routes, some going to Edinburgh etc etc etc

 

Yeah, so I'd say that these folk are maybe being a little dramatic (or you were told this a while ago) but, like with any large new private estates anywhere, there seems to be an assumption by the builders that everyone drives. The days of a corner shop in every 2nd street are long gone in this consumerist age of mass-globalisation/standardisation. I can see why moving from an urban village like Gorgie for example, with its own wee high street, would be a culture shock but still sounds a wee bit dramatic.

 

As for "middle of nowhere", looking back to my college days in 2000 the very first new houses built seemed like that but now blend into the several thousand others.

 

Cheers. So Dunfermline is just 'spreading out' as such. I don't know if that is a good thing. It may start to sneak over the bridge soon...

 

Fifers. Noooooooooooooooooooooooo:eek:

[Domokun]

Cheers. So Dunfermline is just 'spreading out' as such. I don't know if that is a good thing. It may start to sneak over the bridge soon...

 

Fifers. Noooooooooooooooooooooooo:eek:

Don't worry, it can only go as far as the M90 and can't expand westwards due to non-cooperation with landowners. Yer aw safe ower there, neebs.

[Chip Douglas]

Indeed. That is what a common sense approach would tell you. From what I have heard Dunfermline is full of 'developments' that are all fine and dandy but just sitting in the middle of nowhere ? Lack of local shops, schools etc.. ? Is that true ?

 

 

Anyway as for Chip's latest 'Edinburgh will be different just because I say so' post.

 

I have given at least 5 reasons why Edinburgh will be hard hit. I have yet to have anyone refute any of them.

 

If anyone can give me 5 equally as strong arguments to say the opposite then fine.

 

I have however been waiting for close to 6 months for this.

 

Still waiting.....................

 

Your reasons are valid, this is not a right or wrong situation; I don't see any merit in trying to refute them when they hold persuasion.

 

You're clearly not in the habit of listening to the counter argument. There are figures out there which clearly buck the trend as pointed out on this thread. You choose to ignore/dismiss out of hand/put down to error.

 

It boils down to this, Edinburgh, and indeed Scotland will not be hit as hard as down south. That to you obviously reads "Edinburgh is totally fine and in a bubble". That's your prerogative to misinterpret.

 

What that actually means in real terms, who knows. I'm prepared to revise my nominal rise prediction if you stop boring us all with your doomsday soothsaying.

 

Just get your sandwich board, strap yourself to the RBS railings and be done with it.

[Coco]

I'm sick and tired of saying this, Edinburgh property prices will not suffer 30-50% falls.

 

The current value re-adjustment is healthy for the market in the long run.

 

Local markets will react differently, that is a fact and Edinburgh will not suffer to the same extent as markets in England. This has been discussed at length on this thread.

 

As an interesting look at local markets and their ability to buck the trend, look at Aberdeen.

 

Don't follow individual property markets that closely, but I presume that by 'bucking the trend' you mean Aberdeen prices are still rising?

 

If so then this will be due to the oil money kicking around at the moment?

 

I don't see the industry in Edinburgh which is going to see anything like that to outweigh the financial sector/tourism/Government slump for Edinburgh added to the issues with people trying to get borrowing. The key thing is expectations. It would seem to me that people are in the process of changes to expectations - and those expectations are shifting to price falls.

[Munch]

Don't follow individual property markets that closely, but I presume that by 'bucking the trend' you mean Aberdeen prices are still rising?

 

If so then this will be due to the oil money kicking around at the moment?

 

I don't see the industry in Edinburgh which is going to see anything like that to outweigh the financial sector/tourism/Government slump for Edinburgh added to the issues with people trying to get borrowing. The key thing is expectations. It would seem to me that people are in the process of changes to expectations - and those expectations are shifting to price falls.

 

Its Armagedon out there in the property market right now, by the end of the year i predict mass closures of estate agents, and prices down 15 percent, the single survey scheme starts in November, this will be the final nail in the coffin for property, not a thing will sell till next spring another 15 percent drop in prices, another load of estate agents go to the wall, remax will be wiped from the face off the planet, and we will have a new manager by then.

[coppercrutch]

Your reasons are valid, this is not a right or wrong situation; I don't see any merit in trying to refute them when they hold persuasion.

 

You're clearly not in the habit of listening to the counter argument. There are figures out there which clearly buck the trend as pointed out on this thread. You choose to ignore/dismiss out of hand/put down to error.

 

It boils down to this, Edinburgh, and indeed Scotland will not be hit as hard as down south. That to you obviously reads "Edinburgh is totally fine and in a bubble". That's your prerogative to misinterpret.

 

What that actually means in real terms, who knows. I'm prepared to revise my nominal rise prediction if you stop boring us all with your doomsday soothsaying.

 

Just get your sandwich board, strap yourself to the RBS railings and be done with it.

 

 

But the thing is Chip I started off on the other side of the argument !!

 

About 18 months ago I had swallowed all the property guff like the rest of the population. I was going to buy somewhere but instead of just jumping in I just thought something didn't quite add up. So since then I have been digging. It did not take long for me to see exactly what was going on.

 

Every reason we have been told for so long for house prices not falling is just getting knocked down. One by one. The speed at which this is happening is the only thing that surprises me.

 

The simple fact is affordability is the key. Always has been. Always will be. For houses in Edinburgh to be remotely affordable they must fall by 30-50% in REAL terms.

 

It will happen. There are no ifs or buts about this. The only question is how and when.

[coppercrutch]

Don't follow individual property markets that closely, but I presume that by 'bucking the trend' you mean Aberdeen prices are still rising?

 

If so then this will be due to the oil money kicking around at the moment?

 

I don't see the industry in Edinburgh which is going to see anything like that to outweigh the financial sector/tourism/Government slump for Edinburgh added to the issues with people trying to get borrowing. The key thing is expectations. It would seem to me that people are in the process of changes to expectations - and those expectations are shifting to price falls.

 

Indeed. The worm has turned. People are now EXPECTING prices to fall. So when they put an offer in they go much much lower than they previously would have. The sentiment of the last 10 years has turned. This will last for at least 4 years. Quite possibly more.

 

Its Armagedon out there in the property market right now, by the end of the year i predict mass closures of estate agents, and prices down 15 percent, the single survey scheme starts in November, this will be the final nail in the coffin for property, not a thing will sell till next spring another 15 percent drop in prices, another load of estate agents go to the wall, remax will be wiped from the face off the planet, and we will have a new manager by then.

 

Indeed I have heard the word 'carnage' from a few sellers passed on from Estate agents already. A term I was ridiculed for using only 6 months ago. How times change.

 

One thing about prices though. I have been expecting the ESPC figures for July to show serious falls compared to last year. I mean comparing last year to this year is like chalk and cheese. ESPC now has almost 10,500 properties for sale or rent compared to about 5,000 this time last year. And this is the 'busy' time.

 

However as far as I can tell the bottom of the market has almost completely dried up. The price that the ESPC gives us is based on an average rather than a median. So if some houses have been selling in the mid and high end bracket, but nothing is selling at the bottom, the July figures may not actually 'look' that bad.

 

Of course this would just be hiding the fact that the bottom of the market has fallen out and would result in YOY falls later on the year of numbers that woudl be seriously scary for most people. (10%+ possible without even considering inflation )

 

I will be very interested to see these July figures coming out. A massive drop in sales with a modest drop in YOY values would be my prediction. Sales between half/two thirds of this time last year and prices down maybe 1-2%.

 

I imagine the vested interests in the ESPC will state this shows how 'resilient' the market is up here. The reality being that they are just delaying the inevitable admission that the market is goosed.

 

PS. It wasn't me that re-opened this thread

[Munch]

Indeed. The worm has turned. People are now EXPECTING prices to fall. So when they put an offer in they go much much lower than they previously would have. The sentiment of the last 10 years has turned. This will last for at least 4 years. Quite possibly more.

 

 

 

Indeed I have heard the word 'carnage' from a few sellers passed on from Estate agents already. A term I was ridiculed for using only 6 months ago. How times change.

 

One thing about prices though. I have been expecting the ESPC figures for July to show serious falls compared to last year. I mean comparing last year to this year is like chalk and cheese. ESPC now has almost 10,500 properties for sale or rent compared to about 5,000 this time last year. And this is the 'busy' time.

 

However as far as I can tell the bottom of the market has almost completely dried up. The price that the ESPC gives us is based on an average rather than a median. So if some houses have been selling in the mid and high end bracket, but nothing is selling at the bottom, the July figures may not actually 'look' that bad.

 

Of course this would just be hiding the fact that the bottom of the market has fallen out and would result in YOY falls later on the year of numbers that woudl be seriously scary for most people. (10%+ possible without even considering inflation )

 

I will be very interested to see these July figures coming out. A massive drop in sales with a modest drop in YOY values would be my prediction. Sales between half/two thirds of this time last year and prices down maybe 1-2%.

 

I imagine the vested interests in the ESPC will state this shows how 'resilient' the market is up here. The reality being that they are just delaying the inevitable admission that the market is goosed.

 

PS. It wasn't me that re-opened this thread

 

The Armagedon i predicted has started, a leading Edinburgh Solicitor and Estate agent has laid od 18 staff, sales are down 50% on like for like at the same stage last year.

The single survey scheme starts in 5 months, the clock is ticking, pick up a remax magazine, look at all the faces of Agents :sad:that are shown working from each office, look again in December, i predict 80% are gone.

I have magazine issue 52, they are on no 64 now, there are only 3 out off 48 Agents still there, because they are at the bottom end of the food chain they will be first to go.

This is only the first wave, there are a couple of more big waves still to hit the property market yet.

My advice, get in the Bunker , bolt down the hatch, and keep the tin hat on till next spring.

Pop out for a look to see who is left after the Armagedon.

[flecktimus]

The Armagedon i predicted has started, a leading Edinburgh Solicitor and Estate agent has laid od 18 staff, sales are down 50% on like for like at the same stage last year.

The single survey scheme starts in 5 months, the clock is ticking, pick up a remax magazine, look at all the faces of Agents :sad:that are shown working from each office, look again in December, i predict 80% are gone.

I have magazine issue 52, they are on no 64 now, there are only 3 out off 48 Agents still there, because they are at the bottom end of the food chain they will be first to go.

This is only the first wave, there are a couple of more big waves still to hit the property market yet.

My advice, get in the Bunker , bolt down the hatch, and keep the tin hat on till next spring.

Pop out for a look to see who is left after the Armagedon.

 

R U Coopercrutch wee brother

[Chip Douglas]

The Armagedon i predicted has started, a leading Edinburgh Solicitor and Estate agent has laid od 18 staff, sales are down 50% on like for like at the same stage last year.

The single survey scheme starts in 5 months, the clock is ticking, pick up a remax magazine, look at all the faces of Agents :sad:that are shown working from each office, look again in December, i predict 80% are gone.

I have magazine issue 52, they are on no 64 now, there are only 3 out off 48 Agents still there, because they are at the bottom end of the food chain they will be first to go.

This is only the first wave, there are a couple of more big waves still to hit the property market yet.

My advice, get in the Bunker , bolt down the hatch, and keep the tin hat on till next spring.

Pop out for a look to see who is left after the Armagedon.

 

It's looking bleak for sales at the moment; the Firm you speak of have shed support staff and admin in advance of difficult times. I suspect they're ahead of the game in that regard.

 

We've come full circle, I'd be delighted if Remax were snuffed out of the market place.

 

Watch as small law firms "merge" with the big boys, there are frantic negotiatons afoot all over Edinburgh.

[Sherlock]

Its Armagedon out there in the property market right now, by the end of the year i predict mass closures of estate agents, and prices down 15 percent, the single survey scheme starts in November, this will be the final nail in the coffin for property, not a thing will sell till next spring another 15 percent drop in prices, another load of estate agents go to the wall, remax will be wiped from the face off the planet, and we will have a new manager by then.

 

Are you referring to the Edinburgh property market or nationwide?

 

Why will the single survey scheme be the final nail in the coffin for property?

 

And finally, as you seem to be concentrating on estate agencies going to the wall, perhaps you could tell me the percentage of Edinburgh / nationwide (depending on Q1) property sales that actually go through estate agencies.

[coppercrutch]

R U Coopercrutch wee brother

 

Nope !!!

 

Just another poster with his blinkers off. There are a few of us around here.

 

Armageddon. I like it !! Carnage is already outdated...

[coppercrutch]

It's looking bleak for sales at the moment; the Firm you speak of have shed support staff and admin in advance of difficult times. I suspect they're ahead of the game in that regard.

 

We've come full circle, I'd be delighted if Remax were snuffed out of the market place.

 

Watch as small law firms "merge" with the big boys, there are frantic negotiatons afoot all over Edinburgh.

 

Indeed. And as sales drop prices drop accordingly. Those that HAVE to sell bring everything down with them. Marriages, divorces, relocations, deaths etc.....

 

Anyway from what I am hearing from a few desperate sellers is a new 'get out clause' from the Estate agents.

 

Many agents think this will all 'blow over' by next year.

 

So they are advising people to 'just rent it out in the meantime'. This is because 'rents are going to rise'.

 

Only two problems I see in this plan.

 

(1)If everyone starts putting their places out to rent the supply will increase. That along with the Polish heading home could result in a serious oversupply of rental properties. Result ? Rental prices crash along with sale prices. Double whammy.

 

(2) The previous two property cycles in this country have had a 14 year increase followed by a four year decrease. The idea that this will all 'blow over' by next year is quite simply ludicrous. IMO.

 

Carnage.

[Chip Douglas]

Indeed. And as sales drop prices drop accordingly. Those that HAVE to sell bring everything down with them. Marriages, divorces, relocations, deaths etc.....

 

Anyway from what I am hearing from a few desperate sellers is a new 'get out clause' from the Estate agents.

 

Many agents think this will all 'blow over' by next year.

 

So they are advising people to 'just rent it out in the meantime'. This is because 'rents are going to rise'.

 

Only two problems I see in this plan.

 

(1)If everyone starts putting their places out to rent the supply will increase. That along with the Polish heading home could result in a serious oversupply of rental properties. Result ? Rental prices crash along with sale prices. Double whammy.

 

(2) The previous two property cycles in this country have had a 14 year increase followed by a four year decrease. The idea that this will all 'blow over' by next year is quite simply ludicrous. IMO.

 

Carnage.

 

Your assessment is little skewed but I'll humour you. The only people who move at the moment will be the folk that have to; your average Joe will sit tight and ride it out.

 

Repossessions will increase, people will tighten their belts and property prices will even themselves out in the long term.

 

Most of those who have been draft enough take on high LTV mortgages will probably just have to grin and bear it, provided they have sufficient income to amortise their loans.

 

How this equates to "carnage" I'll never know! It sounds exciting though.

[flecktimus]

It's looking bleak for sales at the moment; the Firm you speak of have shed support staff and admin in advance of difficult times. I suspect they're ahead of the game in that regard.

 

We've come full circle, I'd be delighted if Remax were snuffed out of the market place.

 

Watch as small law firms "merge" with the big boys, there are frantic negotiatons afoot all over Edinburgh.

 

Bit disappointed in your statement on Remax. In previous posts you have spoken a lot of sense, but to say competition is bad is a little bit below you.

 

If i had my way i would blow the cartel called the ESPC out of the market place.With its monopoly the ESPC has been on to good thing for to long and needs to be disbanded with proper competition put in place.

 

The ESPC is the Microsoft of Edinburgh

[coppercrutch]

Your assessment is little skewed but I'll humour you. The only people who move at the moment will be the folk that have to; your average Joe will sit tight and ride it out.

 

Repossessions will increase, people will tighten their belts and property prices will even themselves out in the long term.

 

Most of those who have been draft enough take on high LTV mortgages will probably just have to grin and bear it, provided they have sufficient income to amortise their loans.

 

How this equates to "carnage" I'll never know! It sounds exciting though.

 

I totally agree. However you seem unable to grasp the point you are making !! For property prices to 'even out' in Edinburgh they have to fall between 30-50% in real terms. That will happen and it will lead to 'carnage' because so many people have stretched themselves beyond belief. Of course as you say many people will just 'ride it out'. However that is likely to take 6+ years at least. I think you will find the 'minority' who are actually in serious doo doo are quite large in numbers.

 

 

Bit disappointed in your statement on Remax. In previous posts you have spoken a lot of sense, but to say competition is bad is a little bit below you.

 

If i had my way i would blow the cartel called the ESPC out of the market place.With its monopoly the ESPC has been on to good thing for to long and needs to be disbanded with proper competition put in place.

 

The ESPC is the Microsoft of Edinburgh

 

Indeed. I can see them being in big trouble very soon. I can't stand when every single property story in the Evening News or Scotsman has the same ESPC 'expert' on for his opinion. It is a total joke.

 

You may as well have Mugabe on every day telling us what he thinks about his leadership of Zimbabwe. Totally biased point if view !!

 

What goes around comes around however Flecktimus. These sharks have had their day. They will soon be on the scrapheap. The few smart ones will survive and prosper. Good.

[Chip Douglas]

Bit disappointed in your statement on Remax. In previous posts you have spoken a lot of sense, but to say competition is bad is a little bit below you.

 

If i had my way i would blow the cartel called the ESPC out of the market place.With its monopoly the ESPC has been on to good thing for to long and needs to be disbanded with proper competition put in place.

 

The ESPC is the Microsoft of Edinburgh

 

I'm all for competition and there's plenty of it out there. I have absolutely no time for Remax and their methods. They're a bunch of sharks.

 

Your comments about ESPC are off the mark too.

[flecktimus]

I'm all for competition and there's plenty of it out there. I have absolutely no time for Remax and their methods. They're a bunch of sharks.

 

Your comments about ESPC are off the mark too.

 

That may be the case from the inside looking out, but from where i am standing looking in, it is just one big cartel.

[coppercrutch]

That may be the case from the inside looking out, but from where i am standing looking in, it is just one big cartel.

 

Indeed. I have been keeping an eye on the ESPC's 'advice' in various papers over the past 18 months. It is nothing short of scandalous. Encouraging people to get into a lifetime of debt just to prop up their ever disappearing 'housing boom' scam...

 

I hope they go bankrupt. I really do. They have ramped and ramped the market in this city so the average person has no hope of owning a home. Now it is CLEARLY turning they are just in denial stage and attempting to suck more chumps in with FALSE hopes of 'Edinburgh will be different'....

 

People will end up losing everything because of people like David Marshall at the ESPC. I hope he ends up homeless on a street corner begging for food. He deserves it. In fact that is too good for the guy.

[coppercrutch]

3 March 2008

 

Seeing as you have quoted yourself here you may want to point out where you stated this. Because I sure can't find it.....

 

And your other posts seem to be very angry. All I am is a complete stranger trying to stop you making a huge mistake.

 

Why you describe my postings on this subject as 'doomsday' I do not know. I simply think the party is over and everyone who has been making a killing on property in the last few years is about to endure carnage. I don't see that as 'doomsday'. I see that as welcome to half the people in this country.

 

If it appears I know more about all this than many other people, when in fact I have no connection to this industry, then you are correct. If this makes you angry then get over it. Most people in the industry have zero clue about the larger factors that will influence the future. I however do know a little. And that is a little more than the majority of mortgage advisor's or Estate agent's out there.

 

 

3 March 2008

 

 

I have read some undiluted BS on this site over the past 10 years or so and this post is up there with the best of them.

 

Which website opinions do you regurgitate as your own?

My particular favourites from your post (and there are many):-

 

"Endure carnage"

 

"Most people in the industry have zero clue about the large factors"

 

Priceless! Sure beats American Idol on a Sunday evening.

 

 

21 June 2008

 

It's looking bleak for sales at the moment; the Firm you speak of have shed support staff and admin in advance of difficult times. I suspect they're ahead of the game in that regard.

 

We've come full circle, I'd be delighted if Remax were snuffed out of the market place.

 

Watch as small law firms "merge" with the big boys, there are frantic negotiatons afoot all over Edinburgh.

 

You just can't bring yourself to say that I was right all along can you.

 

Unless of course all of these 'frantic negotiations' and 'being ahead of the game' was going on a year ago. Because that is when I was warning of these things, and these 'industry insiders' were sitting in their offices oblivious to what was coming.

 

As I stated previously - I know more about the current situation than most people 'in the industry'. FACT.

 

Go on just admit it. No shame in being wrong. Happens to us all.

[Chip Douglas]

3 March 2008

 

 

 

3 March 2008

 

 

 

21 June 2008

 

 

 

You just can't bring yourself to say that I was right all along can you.

 

Unless of course all of these 'frantic negotiations' and 'being ahead of the game' was going on a year ago. Because that is when I was warning of these things, and these 'industry insiders' were sitting in their offices oblivious to what was coming.

 

As I stated previously - I know more about the current situation than most people 'in the industry'. FACT.

 

Go on just admit it. No shame in being wrong. Happens to us all.

 

You must have too much time on your hands to go trawling through people's posts.

 

The industry is well equipped to deal with market fluctuations and most organisations are ahead of the game. No Firm would make compulsory redundancies until the last moment. The ones that didn't embrace this credit panic 12-18 months ago are the ones going under now.

 

Your suggestion that you know (knew) more than most in the industry is laughable. People can know things without having the power to influence or change the inevitable, that's life.

[coppercrutch]

You must have too much time on your hands to go trawling through people's posts.

 

The industry is well equipped to deal with market fluctuations and most organisations are ahead of the game. No Firm would make compulsory redundancies until the last moment. The ones that didn't embrace this credit panic 12-18 months ago are the ones going under now.

 

Your suggestion that you know (knew) more than most in the industry is laughable. People can know things without having the power to influence or change the inevitable, that's life.

 

Nationwide prediction of Scottish house prices in December 2007:

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Forecast_2008.pdf

 

"The region we believe will see the strongest performance next

is Scotland, where prices are expected to rise by 4%."

 

Fionnuala Earley

Chief Economist

Nationwide

 

Today:

 

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business/Scottish-home-prices-on-slide.4233773.jp

 

 

"Nationwide is expected to reveal a quarterly fall of around 1% when it

publishes its latest house price survey on Tuesday"

 

"Nationwide is expected to confirm this downturn when it announces that house prices have fallen to around ?148,000, where they stood this time last year, down from the peak of ?151,178"

 

"Nationwide's senior economist Martin Gahbauer added: "In some ways the Scottish housing market is less vulnerable than other parts of the UK, but it is still affected by the same shocks as the rest of Britain, such as the tightening in credit and dramatic fall in demand."

 

"Overall housing activity is at an all-time low and we know there is stock of unsold property building up. All of this points to the likelihood that prices will fall further."

 

So when it comes to house prices in Scotland I know (knew) more than the Chief Economist of the Nationwide. That, Mr Douglas is a FACT. Whether you like it or not. But carry on ignoring my warnings if you wish.

 

 

I think I now understand why you are in denial of the obvious. Never noticed this post of yours from ages back. It explains a lot...

 

I've speculated and accumulated on a personal level for 7 years now and my property is currently sitting with a sizeable chunk of equity, I can stomach a little slow down in the short term.

 

You simply don't want all that 'profit' that you have made to disappear as quickly as it appeared in the first place. I can understand that. But you shouldn't let it cloud your judgement. I just hope none of your 'investments' are down Granton. They are already going to auction....

[davemclaren]

Nationwide prediction of Scottish house prices in December 2007:

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Forecast_2008.pdf

 

"The region we believe will see the strongest performance next

is Scotland, where prices are expected to rise by 4%."

 

Fionnuala Earley

Chief Economist

Nationwide

 

Today:

 

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business/Scottish-home-prices-on-slide.4233773.jp

 

 

"Nationwide is expected to reveal a quarterly fall of around 1% when it

publishes its latest house price survey on Tuesday"

 

"Nationwide is expected to confirm this downturn when it announces that house prices have fallen to around ?148,000, where they stood this time last year, down from the peak of ?151,178"

 

"Nationwide's senior economist Martin Gahbauer added: "In some ways the Scottish housing market is less vulnerable than other parts of the UK, but it is still affected by the same shocks as the rest of Britain, such as the tightening in credit and dramatic fall in demand."

 

"Overall housing activity is at an all-time low and we know there is stock of unsold property building up. All of this points to the likelihood that prices will fall further."

 

So when it comes to house prices in Scotland I know (knew) more than the Chief Economist of the Nationwide. That, Mr Douglas is a FACT. Whether you like it or not. But carry on ignoring my warnings if you wish.

 

 

I think I now understand why you are in denial of the obvious. Never noticed this post of yours from ages back. It explains a lot...

 

 

 

You simply don't want all that 'profit' that you have made to disappear as quickly as it appeared in the first place. I can understand that. But you shouldn't let it cloud your judgement. I just hope none of your 'investments' are down Granton. They are already going to auction....

 

Is that not like saying that you 'knew' a horse would win before the race was run? You might have had good indicators allowing you to see the possibilities, or even the probabilities, but I think claiming that you knew is wee bit strong. FACT.