Estate Agents! Advice....

[flecktimus]

Nationwide prediction of Scottish house prices in December 2007:

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Forecast_2008.pdf

 

"The region we believe will see the strongest performance next

is Scotland, where prices are expected to rise by 4%."

 

Fionnuala Earley

Chief Economist

Nationwide

 

Today:

 

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business/Scottish-home-prices-on-slide.4233773.jp

 

 

"Nationwide is expected to reveal a quarterly fall of around 1% when it

publishes its latest house price survey on Tuesday"

 

"Nationwide is expected to confirm this downturn when it announces that house prices have fallen to around ?148,000, where they stood this time last year, down from the peak of ?151,178"

 

"Nationwide's senior economist Martin Gahbauer added: "In some ways the Scottish housing market is less vulnerable than other parts of the UK, but it is still affected by the same shocks as the rest of Britain, such as the tightening in credit and dramatic fall in demand."

 

"Overall housing activity is at an all-time low and we know there is stock of unsold property building up. All of this points to the likelihood that prices will fall further."

 

So when it comes to house prices in Scotland I know (knew) more than the Chief Economist of the Nationwide. That, Mr Douglas is a FACT. Whether you like it or not. But carry on ignoring my warnings if you wish.

 

 

I think I now understand why you are in denial of the obvious. Never noticed this post of yours from ages back. It explains a lot...

 

 

 

You simply don't want all that 'profit' that you have made to disappear as quickly as it appeared in the first place. I can understand that. But you shouldn't let it cloud your judgement. I just hope none of your 'investments' are down Granton. They are already going to auction....

 

Still a long way from your 30% - 50%.

 

Enjoy your golf

[Super T]

 

If i remember, your original argument was that the edinburgh housing market would suffer falls of 30-50% along with the rest of the UK. I notice that out of all the coverage in the press lately regarding the Scottish Economy & Housing Market that you only choose to quote one that part suits your purpose and then leave in the bit above.

 

Get a life. I thought this thread had gone to bed a long time ago but it must be a sad existence having to save up all those pennies, so you can buy your 1 bedroom flat in Gorgie for ?40k in 2 years time, if you just sit on a sunday morning trawlling through the papers to find any reference to the housing market so that you can post it on here and pretend your some form of property guru. If your waiting on these 50% falls in Edinburgh 'NEWSFLASH' they aint gonna happen.

[coppercrutch]

People people. All I am doing is proving a point. So many so called 'experts' have come out with drivelling rubbish for ages. Now that rubbish is being shown up for all it is. I am simply pointing out to you that you will be told what is happening ONLY WHEN THEY WANT YOU TO KNOW !!!!

 

My example from the Chief Economist of the Nationwide is a perfect example. 6 months ago she said House prices in Scotland would not fall, in fact they would rise by 4%.

 

Now 6 months later she is telling us prices are falling ALREADY !!! So the simple lesson to be learnt is not to trust these 'experts'..

 

And as for picking out various articles to support my argument you must be having a laugh. There are about 5 per day I could post on here if I wanted to.

 

I predicted house prices in Scotland would fall this year - I was right.

Chief economist predicted house prices in Scotland would rise this year - She was wrong.

 

 

Now I am telling you what is comign next. 30-50% real falls. If you choose not to beleive me then that is fine. However that would appear to be rather foolish seeing as I have been pretty good at my predictions so far.

 

[Coco]

People people. All I am doing is proving a point. So many so called 'experts' have come out with drivelling rubbish for ages. Now that rubbish is being shown up for all it is. I am simply pointing out to you that you will be told what is happening ONLY WHEN THEY WANT YOU TO KNOW !!!!

 

My example from the Chief Economist of the Nationwide is a perfect example. 6 months ago she said House prices in Scotland would not fall, in fact they would rise by 4%.

 

Now 6 months later she is telling us prices are falling ALREADY !!! So the simple lesson to be learnt is not to trust these 'experts'..

 

And as for picking out various articles to support my argument you must be having a laugh. There are about 5 per day I could post on here if I wanted to.

 

I predicted house prices in Scotland would fall this year - I was right.

Chief economist predicted house prices in Scotland would rise this year - She was wrong.

 

 

Now I am telling you what is comign next. 30-50% real falls. If you choose not to beleive me then that is fine. However that would appear to be rather foolish seeing as I have been pretty good at my predictions so far.

 

 

The only ways I see your 30-50% real fall missing its target is that there could be a relative shift from outlying areas to Edinburgh as prices fall (ie gets easier to move back into the City) - this happened in Tokyo. And the other one is that the overall economy may tip into deflation rather than inflation. And that would prop up real property values.

[coppercrutch]

Interesting article in the Observer about the psychology of all this.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/29/creditcrunch.housingmarket

 

I have already mentioned this numerous times but I will again for reference.

 

"Economists at UBS have researched previous housing crashes around the world and concluded that they unfold in remarkably similar ways, over a three- to four-year period, a financial variant on Elisabeth K?bler-Ross's cycle of grieving, where the bereaved journey from denial through anger and depression to acceptance. Stage one is realisation, when people slowly become aware, after many years of housing gains, that tough times lie ahead. Stage two is capitulation, where distress and fear grip the market and stage three is acceptance, where the falls in value level off, prices regain some equilibrium and gradually recover in line with inflation. UBS reckons that the UK is stuck near the beginning of the property grief cycle, somewhere between realisation and capitulation, so the worst is yet to come. Similarly, respected consultant Capital Economics, in a paper last month it judged too pessimistic to be released to the press, forecast a 35 per cent fall in house prices, with double-digit drops continuing through 2010."

 

 

There is nothing to give us any reason to think that this will be any different. In fact the only way it is going to be different is that it will probably be worse than normal.

 

This is usual 'bubble' progress slightly different to that noted above but same idea:

 

[coppercrutch]

The only ways I see your 30-50% real fall missing its target is that there could be a relative shift from outlying areas to Edinburgh as prices fall (ie gets easier to move back into the City) - this happened in Tokyo. And the other one is that the overall economy may tip into deflation rather than inflation. And that would prop up real property values.

 

I have thought about the first thing and it is interesting. However many people could find their 'profit' from homes in West Lothian, Fife etc... disappearing. While it may ultimately be cheaper to move back to Edinburgh as you say how many of these people will have the required deposits etc.. in place ?

 

It is an interesting thought however I will keep it in mind. We may see a return migration to the City....

 

As for deflation the only recent example of that is Japan that I can think of. However they had huge house price falls, only they lasted for almost 20 years. Death by a thousand cuts and all.

 

Out of interest why do you reckon deflation would stop house prices falling ? It would be the worst case scenario for people with huge debts. High inflation could have the 'bonus' of eroding many people's debts. But for that we would need wage inflation to kick off too. Deflation would result in cash and savings being king. Would be a nice result for all the sensible folk out there like myself. This mess has not been my fault. Don't see why I shouldn't be rewarded for my prudence.

 

Very complicated anyway !!!

 

One thing that is for certain is that house prices in Edinburgh will revert to their long term mean. That is between 3-4 times average income. I am 95% certain of that. Only question is how that is going to happen.

 

One thing most people don't get is the inflation factor. House prices remain the same for the next 6 years and there we have our 30% falls already*. Why people don't get this is one of life's little mysteries.......

 

*Assuming inflation of 5% over the next 5 years. Who knows what reality will be..

[coppercrutch]

 

If i remember, your original argument was that the edinburgh housing market would suffer falls of 30-50% along with the rest of the UK. I notice that out of all the coverage in the press lately regarding the Scottish Economy & Housing Market that you only choose to quote one that part suits your purpose and then leave in the bit above.

 

Get a life. I thought this thread had gone to bed a long time ago but it must be a sad existence having to save up all those pennies, so you can buy your 1 bedroom flat in Gorgie for ?40k in 2 years time, if you just sit on a sunday morning trawlling through the papers to find any reference to the housing market so that you can post it on here and pretend your some form of property guru. If your waiting on these 50% falls in Edinburgh 'NEWSFLASH' they aint gonna happen.

 

See post #705.

 

You are the perfect example of the move from denial to fear.

[brownkg]

what does it say about house prices next to bakeries with working ovens?

[Peebo]

This is usual 'bubble' progress slightly different to that noted above but same idea:

 

 

Of course, depending on when and why it was purchased, the comfort for many of those who own property is that the mean continues to rise.

[Peebo]

One thing most people don't get is the inflation factor. House prices remain the same for the next 6 years and there we have our 30% falls already*. Why people don't get this is one of life's little mysteries.......

 

You have stated this point, in one form or another, on numerous occasions. Purely in the context of this thread, I've haven't noticed many posts from anyone indicating an ignorance of inflation, and the implications for property price analysis.

 

Out of interest, is inflation a subject that you recently educated yourself about with a Wikipedia article?

[coppercrutch]

Of course, depending on when and why it was purchased, the comfort for many of those who own property is that the mean continues to rise.

 

Indeed. And yet another reason not to try to impress people with stories of how much 'profit' they have made on their property. Those with sense will know these things are in a constant state of boom and bust - any bragging about 'profit' can quickly be undone. You don't have any profit from the casino until you cash in the chips.

 

You have stated this point, in one form or another, on numerous occasions. Purely in the context of this thread, I've haven't noticed many posts from anyone indicating an ignorance of inflation, and the implications for property price analysis.

 

Out of interest, is inflation a subject that you recently educated yourself about with a Wikipedia article?

 

Behave yourself. You know as well as I do that very few people take this into consideration when discussing property prices. Once told about it they are unlikely to come out and admit they didn't have a clue previously. Not on this forum anyway.

 

I have educated myself on the subject of inflation through various forums and articles - many of them online. You see I had little idea of this until fairly recently. Now I do. Not something most people on this forum would be willing to admit. This place is not like that you see....

 

I also love it how we have now entered the 'belittle CC' stage. I find it amusing.

 

Instead of just admitting that I may actually be very well educated in this field let's just stick to the mantra that I don't have a clue.

 

You stick to that if you wish. I have no problem with it. I know what is coming better than most people in this country. I will be better placed than most to take advantage. That is unless the country is not completely ****ed up by this mess.

[coppercrutch]

Seems the Evening News have got a sneak preview of the lateest ESPC figures.

 

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/It39s-a-buyer39s-market-as.4251467.jp

 

Seems average prices are now slightly higher than at the same time last year at the height of the boom.

 

I think this is down to the bottom of the market being toast and this skewing the figures upwards. This is what you get with 'average' figures. (As explained in post #684)

 

 

Have a look at their little visual below that shows prices in all areas of Edinburgh. Interesting stuff but just shows how lower sales volumes can skew figures by a massive amount.

 

I do not for a second believe the following figures to be even close to the truth.

 

Flats in Murrayfield - down 39.4%

Flats in Portobello - Up 33.3%

 

 

 

 

http://www2.jpscotland.co.uk/EN/en03houses.pdf

 

I will be very interested to see the volumes reported when all the figures come out on July 10th. At least the article is relatively realistic compared to the usual 'Edinburgh is different' tosh.

 

Have a look at the visual above again. Have a look at the note at the bottom:

 

"Figures based on sales recorded by ESPC. Where less than five sales

of the given property type were recorded a figure is not provided."

 

Have a look at how many areas had less than 5 sales in the last 3 months.

 

Holy *****.

[The Old Tolbooth]

Nationwide announced on Tuesday that Scotlands average house price had risen by 0.6% in the last year (I think, it could have been 6 months)

 

Anyway, that's my contribution to this thread for another 8 pages

[Peebo]

Seems average prices are now slightly higher than at the same time last year at the height of the boom.

 

I think this is down to the bottom of the market being toast and this skewing the figures upwards. This is what you get with 'average' figures. (As explained in post #684)

 

Do you mean post #684 where you predict a year-on-year drop in prices? Since predictions are your king when determining knowledge, does this mean you are as clueless as the rest of us?

[coppercrutch]

Do you mean post #684 where you predict a year-on-year drop in prices? Since predictions are your king when determining knowledge, does this mean you are as clueless as the rest of us?

 

It means the figures did not show what I expected. Although I did post before they came out how a small rise may be a possiblity.

 

As I posted previously the only way this is possible is if the bottom of the market has completely fallen out - and the overall figures are skewed. Even the most ardent 'Edinburgh is different' supporter would not try to argue you can sell your house for more this year than last.

 

The problem with these figures is they are an 'average'. If only 5 houses sell in Edinburgh in the next 3 months, and they are all at ?1,000,000 - the next figures will show that the average sale price in Edinburgh is ?1,000,000 !!

 

That clearly would not give a reaslistic view of the current market. As the examples of Murrayfield and Portobello above also show on a smaller scale.

 

With all that is going on I actually think things are going to be much worse than I initially thought. I think the drops in prices could well be huge. People in Scotland are only just waking up to the fact that we are not going to be different, and the market has slowed a massive amount already.

 

Of course I may be wrong. But I am more sure now than I ever have been that prices here are going into freefall over the next 2/3 years at least. Of the record I imagine most estate agents and solicitors would agree.

[Chip Douglas]

It means the figures did not show what I expected. Although I did post before they came out how a small rise may be a possiblity.

 

As I posted previously the only way this is possible is if the bottom of the market has completely fallen out - and the overall figures are skewed. Even the most ardent 'Edinburgh is different' supporter would not try to argue you can sell your house for more this year than last.

 

The problem with these figures is they are an 'average'. If only 5 houses sell in Edinburgh in the next 3 months, and they are all at ?1,000,000 - the next figures will show that the average sale price in Edinburgh is ?1,000,000 !!

 

That clearly would not give a reaslistic view of the current market. As the examples of Murrayfield and Portobello above also show on a smaller scale.

 

With all that is going on I actually think things are going to be much worse than I initially thought. I think the drops in prices could well be huge. People in Scotland are only just waking up to the fact that we are not going to be different, and the market has slowed a massive amount already.

 

Of course I may be wrong. But I am more sure now than I ever have been that prices here are going into freefall over the next 2/3 years at least. Of the record I imagine most estate agents and solicitors would agree.

 

Edinburgh is different.

 

FACT

[neobis]

Edinburgh is different.

 

FACT

 

Why?

[Chip Douglas]

Why?

 

Assess the figures.

[Chip Douglas]

Why?

 

Here's indicative figures just released for the last quarter by Nationwide, albeit not broken down in Scottish regions.

 

Region Average Price Quarterly % change Annual % change

North ?129,700 -3.00% -3.60%

Yorks & Humber ?146,074 -4.50% -5.90%

North West ?150,162 -3.20% -5.30%

East Midlands ?147,413 -4.20% -5.80%

West Midlands ?156,219 -3.10% -5.10%

East Anglia ?172,164 -5.00% -5.10%

Outer South East ?204,292 -4.30% -4.00%

Outer Metropolitan ?248,263 -2.80% -2.00%

London ?285,568 -3.80% -2.30%

South West ?194,714 -1.30% -3.10%

Wales ?143,147 -5.70% -7.60%

Scotland ?149,541 -1.80% 0.60%

Northern Ireland ?183,476 -9.00% -18.60%

 

Tell me which one stands out for you?

 

Edinburgh, and indeed Scotland, are different.

 

DE FACTO

[coppercrutch]

Here's indicative figures just released for the last quarter by Nationwide, albeit not broken down in Scottish regions.

 

Region Average Price Quarterly % change Annual % change

North ?129,700 -3.00% -3.60%

Yorks & Humber ?146,074 -4.50% -5.90%

North West ?150,162 -3.20% -5.30%

East Midlands ?147,413 -4.20% -5.80%

West Midlands ?156,219 -3.10% -5.10%

East Anglia ?172,164 -5.00% -5.10%

Outer South East ?204,292 -4.30% -4.00%

Outer Metropolitan ?248,263 -2.80% -2.00%

London ?285,568 -3.80% -2.30%

South West ?194,714 -1.30% -3.10%

Wales ?143,147 -5.70% -7.60%

Scotland ?149,541 -1.80% 0.60%

Northern Ireland ?183,476 -9.00% -18.60%

 

Tell me which one stands out for you?

 

Edinburgh, and indeed Scotland, are different.

 

DE FACTO

 

Chip you are getting desperate now !! I think you know the game is up but are just clinging onto the hope that 'Edinburgh is different'. That idea is simply ridiculous and I am not even going to bother debating the point.

 

You know what stands out for the figures above for me ?

 

This time last year NI* had the 'best' figures out of the UK by a long, long way. What has happened to them now....

 

Get rid of your 'investments' while you still can. Put them on the market for 10-15% less than everyone else and you will sell no probs. If you bought most of these 7 years ago then you will still have a healthy profit. Every single day you cling to the hope that 'Edinburgh is different' your profits are evaporating.

 

 

* I know it is a very different area but you get the point. Time lag is all we are seeing here, nothing more, nothing less.

[neobis]

Chip you are getting desperate now !! I think you know the game is up but are just clinging onto the hope that 'Edinburgh is different'. That idea is simply ridiculous and I am not even going to bother debating the point.

 

You know what stands out for the figures above for me ?

 

This time last year NI* had the 'best' figures out of the UK by a long, long way. What has happened to them now....

 

Get rid of your 'investments' while you still can. Put them on the market for 10-15% less than everyone else and you will sell no probs. If you bought most of these 7 years ago then you will still have a healthy profit. Every single day you cling to the hope that 'Edinburgh is different' your profits are evaporating.

 

 

* I know it is a very different area but you get the point. Time lag is all we are seeing here, nothing more, nothing less.

 

100% agree.

[coppercrutch]

Some interesting articles in the SOS today.

 

http://business.scotsman.com/newsfront.aspx?sectionid=7598&IsTopic=1

 

This one has some good examples of how Scotland is simply in a lag compared to the rest of the UK:

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

"Not surprisingly, house prices fell in 1991 by 1.2% across the UK, in 1992 by 5.6% and in 1993 by 2.9%.

 

They did not fall in Scotland, though, where they actually rose by more than 6% over the same period; but then Scottish prices had not bubbled in the late 1980s as they had south of the border.

 

According to the Halifax, house prices across the UK rose by 60% between 1987 and 1989, but they only climbed 33% in Scotland.

 

That trend of underperforming the UK has been reversed in recent years, with Scottish inflation leading the way. Since the start of 2004, Scottish property has increased in price by 53%, compared with 29% across the UK as a whole."

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

We simply started our boom later than England.

So we will start our bust later than England.

Very simple by the looks of it.

 

How about this little nugget mentioned in this article:

 

http://business.scotsman.com/business/Barratt-moves--to-calm.4260288.jp

 

"Scottish housebuilder Cala Homes also revealed it is to cut 30 jobs and cease work on all homes unless they have already been sold."

 

So as of this week Cala the housebuilders, are not building houses.

 

IMO huge news. When housebuilders just up tools and STOP it must be very,very, very bad indeed.

[flecktimus]

Chip you are getting desperate now !! I think you know the game is up but are just clinging onto the hope that 'Edinburgh is different'. That idea is simply ridiculous and I am not even going to bother debating the point.

 

You know what stands out for the figures above for me ?

 

This time last year NI* had the 'best' figures out of the UK by a long, long way. What has happened to them now....

 

Get rid of your 'investments' while you still can. Put them on the market for 10-15% less than everyone else and you will sell no probs. If you bought most of these 7 years ago then you will still have a healthy profit. Every single day you cling to the hope that 'Edinburgh is different' your profits are evaporating.

 

 

* I know it is a very different area but you get the point. Time lag is all we are seeing here, nothing more, nothing less.

 

N Ireland is a very different area. The southern Irish and the Brits both piled in and artificially inflated the prices away beyond there worth and with a pretty much stagnate population this was always going to happen.

 

Back to Edinburgh and figures. Just accept that Edinburgh is holding at the moment. Remember unlike NI Edinburgh has a positive population. It will change but not quite yet and certainly not by your 30% - 50%.

[Chip Douglas]

Chip you are getting desperate now !! I think you know the game is up but are just clinging onto the hope that 'Edinburgh is different'. That idea is simply ridiculous and I am not even going to bother debating the point.

 

You know what stands out for the figures above for me ?

 

This time last year NI* had the 'best' figures out of the UK by a long, long way. What has happened to them now....

 

Get rid of your 'investments' while you still can. Put them on the market for 10-15% less than everyone else and you will sell no probs. If you bought most of these 7 years ago then you will still have a healthy profit. Every single day you cling to the hope that 'Edinburgh is different' your profits are evaporating.

 

 

* I know it is a very different area but you get the point. Time lag is all we are seeing here, nothing more, nothing less.

 

Don't bother debating the point if you'd prefer not to, because I've got you on this one. The figures bear this out. I'm not arguing that the Scottish or local market are immune to global forces, that would be folly and never once have I been of this stance. However, as I have stated ad nauseam on this thread, the local market is less volatile; you're a seemingly free thinking, intelligent chap CC, concede that point at least.

 

For the record, and you've alluded to this more than once, I don't have any property interests, other than the house I live in. You seem to be trying to draw some sort of conclusion that I hold an alternative view to you because I have vested interest in the situation; other than my hoose, I don't.

[Peebo]

Chip you are getting desperate now !! I think you know the game is up but are just clinging onto the hope that 'Edinburgh is different'. That idea is simply ridiculous and I am not even going to bother debating the point.

 

You know what stands out for the figures above for me ?

 

This time last year NI* had the 'best' figures out of the UK by a long, long way. What has happened to them now....

 

Get rid of your 'investments' while you still can. Put them on the market for 10-15% less than everyone else and you will sell no probs. If you bought most of these 7 years ago then you will still have a healthy profit. Every single day you cling to the hope that 'Edinburgh is different' your profits are evaporating.

 

 

* I know it is a very different area but you get the point. Time lag is all we are seeing here, nothing more, nothing less.

 

Chip has backed up his belief that "Edinburgh is different" by quoting stats showing an annual trend for Scotland which goes against the rest of the UK.

 

You have tried to ridicule this by comparing the Scottish market with the one in Northern Ireland - "a very different area".

 

Clearly I am not getting your point, as only one argument looks desperate here.

[flecktimus]

Some interesting articles in the SOS today.

 

http://business.scotsman.com/newsfront.aspx?sectionid=7598&IsTopic=1

 

This one has some good examples of how Scotland is simply in a lag compared to the rest of the UK:

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

"Not surprisingly, house prices fell in 1991 by 1.2% across the UK, in 1992 by 5.6% and in 1993 by 2.9%.

 

They did not fall in Scotland, though, where they actually rose by more than 6% over the same period; but then Scottish prices had not bubbled in the late 1980s as they had south of the border.

 

According to the Halifax, house prices across the UK rose by 60% between 1987 and 1989, but they only climbed 33% in Scotland.

 

That trend of underperforming the UK has been reversed in recent years, with Scottish inflation leading the way. Since the start of 2004, Scottish property has increased in price by 53%, compared with 29% across the UK as a whole."

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

We simply started our boom later than England.

So we will start our bust later than England.

Very simple by the looks of it.

 

How about this little nugget mentioned in this article:

 

http://business.scotsman.com/business/Barratt-moves--to-calm.4260288.jp

 

"Scottish housebuilder Cala Homes also revealed it is to cut 30 jobs and cease work on all homes unless they have already been sold."

 

So as of this week Cala the housebuilders, are not building houses.

 

IMO huge news. When housebuilders just up tools and STOP it must be very,very, very bad indeed.

 

 

The Scottish house market didn't collapse in the early 90s quite simply because the Scots where only just becoming home owners on a larger scale. Previously we had a high population of schemies (Me Included).

 

 

We both agreed on earlier posts that New build was the danger area.They are now reaping what they sowed.

[coppercrutch]

N Ireland is a very different area. The southern Irish and the Brits both piled in and artificially inflated the prices away beyond there worth and with a pretty much stagnate population this was always going to happen.

 

Back to Edinburgh and figures. Just accept that Edinburgh is holding at the moment. Remember unlike NI Edinburgh has a positive population. It will change but not quite yet and certainly not by your 30% - 50%.

 

It is not anything like close to 'holding'. Seriously speak to someone that will be honest with you - estate agent solicitor. Get beyond their usual hope and find out what they really think.

 

FFS one of the largest Scottish builders is STOPPING building any more houses !!! That doesn't happen in a 'holding market'.

[coppercrutch]

Don't bother debating the point if you'd prefer not to, because I've got you on this one. The figures bear this out. I'm not arguing that the Scottish or local market are immune to global forces, that would be folly and never once have I been of this stance. However, as I have stated ad nauseam on this thread, the local market is less volatile; you're a seemingly free thinking, intelligent chap CC, concede that point at least.

 

For the record, and you've alluded to this more than once, I don't have any property interests, other than the house I live in. You seem to be trying to draw some sort of conclusion that I hold an alternative view to you because I have vested interest in the situation; other than my hoose, I don't.

 

 

3 March 2008:

 

I've speculated and accumulated on a personal level for 7 years now and my property is currently sitting with a sizeable chunk of equity

 

Seem to be contradicting yourself a little here Chip...

 

As for the figures I am not disputing that they APPEAR to show Edinburgh house prices are not falling. In reality we all know they are. I have explained how these figures are skewed. If you really think you can sell a house in Edinburgh for more today than you could in Jun 2007 you are clearly insane.

[coppercrutch]

The Scottish house market didn't collapse in the early 90s quite simply because the Scots where only just becoming home owners on a larger scale. Previously we had a high population of schemies (Me Included).

 

 

We both agreed on earlier posts that New build was the danger area.They are now reaping what they sowed.

 

I agree. However new builds are just the LARGEST danger zone. The rest of the market will move accordingly. As I have said if anyone is sitting in a 500k house and thinks this whole crash won't affect them - they are insane.

 

This property pyramid needs the people at the bottom to hold it together. The bottom has gone. The top will come down in due course.

[Peebo]

3 March 2008:

 

 

 

Seem to be contradicting yourself a little here Chip...

 

Again, you've got me. Where is the contradiction?

[coppercrutch]

Chip has backed up his belief that "Edinburgh is different" by quoting stats showing an annual trend for Scotland which goes against the rest of the UK.

 

You have tried to ridicule this by comparing the Scottish market with the one in Northern Ireland - "a very different area".

 

Clearly I am not getting your point, as only one argument looks desperate here.

 

Brilliant. My argument is the 'desperate one' !!!

 

Seriously that gave me a chuckle. The only people who are 'desperate' are those trying to convince themselves that their property is worth as much as they think. That is simply not true.

 

As for Chip 'backing up his belief' that is fine and I am not disputing that. However the reason for these AVERAGE figures not falling is due to the almost complete collapse of the bottom of the market.

 

Lets wait and see what the sales numbers were for the last 3 months in Edinburgh compared to last year. When the number of sales collapses the prices collapse. I think we can all agree on that.

 

I can't beleive I am still having to convince people that Edinburgh house prices are falling. It truly is staggering. As I said talk to someone in the know. But get their REAL opinion and not just their usual spin. You will soon find out just how bad it is.

 

I have heard Warners, Lints and Deans have all got rid off a large number of staff. Maybe someone who works in these areas can confirm this ?

 

Keeping it all very 'hush hush' by the looks of it. Not surprising really. Last thing they want to do is advertise the fact that Edinburgh is toast.

[coppercrutch]

Again, you've got me. Where is the contradiction?

 

Are you and Chip the same person.

 

Where is the contradiction ? Are you being serious !!??

 

I've speculated and accumulated on a personal level for 7 years now

 

Well usually when you speculate and accumulate on something you have a vested interest in it's value......

[Peebo]

Brilliant. My argument is the 'desperate one' !!!

 

Seriously that gave me a chuckle. The only people who are 'desperate' are those trying to convince themselves that their property is worth as much as they think. That is simply not true.

 

As for Chip 'backing up his belief' that is fine and I am not disputing that. However the reason for these AVERAGE figures not falling is due to the almost complete collapse of the bottom of the market.

 

I was comparing your use of Northern Ireland as an example to counter the data he refered to, and not your more general arguments.

[Peebo]

Are you and Chip the same person.

 

No, why?

 

Where is the contradiction ? Are you being serious !!??

 

Yes.

 

Well usually when you speculate and accumulate on something you have a vested interest in it's value......

 

In both posts that you quote, he states quite simply that he owns one property. Other than this house, in which he lives, he says he has no vested interest in this subject. How he built up the equity is irrelevant.

 

I ask again, where is the contradiction?

[Chip Douglas]

No, why?

 

 

 

Yes.

 

 

 

In both posts that you quote, he states quite simply that he owns one property. Other than this house, in which he lives, he says he has no vested interest in this subject. How he built up the equity is irrelevant.

 

I ask again, where is the contradiction?

 

There is absolutely no contradiction, again CC, you're off on one.

 

The fact you're wrong and 2 posters are pointing that out means they must be the same poster of course.

 

[coppercrutch]

I was comparing your use of Northern Ireland as an example to counter the data he refered to, and not your more general arguments.

 

I simply used NI to show how quickly a market that is 'bucking the trend' can collapse. I think exactly the same thing will happen in Scotland, but to a lesser degree. Prices in NI have simply been ridiculous even compared to here.

[coppercrutch]

No, why?

 

 

 

Yes.

 

 

 

In both posts that you quote, he states quite simply that he owns one property. Other than this house, in which he lives, he says he has no vested interest in this subject. How he built up the equity is irrelevant.

 

I ask again, where is the contradiction?

 

I've speculated and accumulated[/u'] on a personal level for 7 years now.

 

Now someone please feel free to tell me I am going insane.....

 

Usually when someone 'accumulates' something they end up with more than one item.............

[coppercrutch]

There is absolutely no contradiction, again CC, you're off on one.

 

The fact you're wrong and 2 posters are pointing that out means they must be the same poster of course.

 

 

Ok fine then clear this up because your initial post back in March certainly is confusing this:

 

When you say 'accumulate' in regards to property what are you talking about ? If you are talking about properties then you must have more than 1 ?

 

When you say 'speculate' then how can this only be referring to one family home. Not much room to 'speculate' on one item ?

 

Cheers.

[Peebo]

Now someone please feel free to tell me I am going insane.....

 

Usually when someone 'accumulates' something they end up with more than one item.............

 

One could accumulate money by saving it. One could accumulate expertise on a subject through reading about it on Wikipedia and internet forums. One could accumulate equity in a property.

 

In each case, one could argue that they are not ending up with "more than one item". Depends what you classify as an item, I suppose.

[Peebo]

Ok fine then clear this up because your initial post back in March certainly is confusing this:

 

When you say 'accumulate' in regards to property what are you talking about ? If you are talking about properties then you must have more than 1 ?

 

When you say 'speculate' then how can this only be referring to one family home. Not much room to 'speculate' on one item ?

 

Cheers.

 

Chip says I can answer this one.

 

One could "speculate" by purchasing a house which they plan to live in, but is actually bigger than they require. This higher level of investment could be considered "speculation", and a growth in property prices could result in an "accumulation" of equity.

 

However, this is a bit of a red herring. He said that now he has one home, and no other property interests. What he has done in the past is irrelevant. Are you suggesting that he is posting on Kickback to try and talk up the market for property he has already sold?

[coppercrutch]

One could accumulate money by saving it. One could accumulate expertise on a subject through reading about it on Wikipedia and internet forums. One could accumulate equity in a property.

 

In each case, one could argue that they are not ending up with "more than one item". Depends what you classify as an item, I suppose.

 

Jeez..

 

I am not arguing with anything that you are saying !!

 

When you are on the subject of property and investment and someone says the following it is pretty obvious what they mean !! Unless they CLEARLY state otherwise.

 

"I've speculated and accumulated on a personal level for 7 years now and my property is currently sitting with a sizeable chunk of equity"

[coppercrutch]

Chip says I can answer this one.

 

One could "speculate" by purchasing a house which they plan to live in, but is actually bigger than they require. This higher level of investment could be considered "speculation", and a growth in property prices could result in an "accumulation" of equity.

 

However, this is a bit of a red herring. He said that now he has one home, and no other property interests. What he has done in the past is irrelevant. Are you suggesting that he is posting on Kickback to try and talk up the market for property he has already sold?

 

I am suggesting that as someone who has stated categorically that they have SPECULATED and ACCUMULATED in property that they will have a vested interest in the SPECULATION and ACCUMULATION not going down in value.

 

I can't believe I am even having to spell this out....

[Chip Douglas]

I am suggesting that as someone who has stated categorically that they have SPECULATED and ACCUMULATED in property that they will have a vested interest in the SPECULATION and ACCUMULATION not going down in value.

 

I can't believe I am even having to spell this out....

 

Go and read the posts again. "other than my hoose".

 

Let this one drop for Gawd's sake.

 

Just accept there's no contradiction and you've misinterpreted my words.

[coppercrutch]

Go and read the posts again. "other than my hoose".

 

Let this one drop for Gawd's sake.

 

Just accept there's no contradiction and you've misinterpreted my words.

 

Simply answer my simple questions in 738 and I will happily let it drop. Otherwise I will be unsure of exactly what angle you are coming from.

 

Cheers.

[Peebo]

I am suggesting that as someone who has stated categorically that they have SPECULATED and ACCUMULATED in property that they will have a vested interest in the SPECULATION and ACCUMULATION not going down in value.

 

I can't believe I am even having to spell this out....

 

Uh-huh. As he quite clearly states in the post you highlight as contradictory, he owns a property, and thus clearly has a vested interest.

[Chip Douglas]

Simply answer my simple questions in 738 and I will happily let it drop. Otherwise I will be unsure of exactly what angle you are coming from.

 

Cheers.

 

Peebo, my trusted associate has clarified the position and I have nothing further to add m'lord.

 

Ach, what the hell. I speculated on each property I purchased and accumulated a reasonable chunk of equity "in my property".

 

Although "property" can be used in the plural sense, you might have more than reasonably expected me to use "my properties" if I had more than one.

[coppercrutch]

Uh-huh. As he quite clearly states in the post you highlight as contradictory, he owns a property, and thus clearly has a vested interest.

 

Aye I get that !!

 

However I am just trying to confirm if there is anything else. Apart from the property Lawyer job IIRC ?

[Chip Douglas]

Aye I get that !!

 

However I am just trying to confirm if there is anything else. Apart from the property Lawyer job IIRC ?

 

I did clarify, remember you picked me up on it.

 

[coppercrutch]

Peebo, my trusted associate has clarified the position and I have nothing further to add m'lord.

 

Ach, what the hell. I speculated on each property I purchased and accumulated a reasonable chunk of equity "in my property".

 

Although "property" can be used in the plural sense, you might have more than reasonably expected me to use "my properties" if I had more than one.

 

Allright cheers. That clears it up then !!

 

Anyway serious question for a minute. What sort of falls if any do you reckon we will see in Edinburgh. In nominal and real* terms. I know you think 30-50 is nonsense but what sort of number would not surprise you ?

 

*Assuming inflation at 5% which is nothing more than a guestimate.

[Chip Douglas]

Allright cheers. That clears it up then !!

 

Anyway serious question for a minute. What sort of falls if any do you reckon we will see in Edinburgh. In nominal and real* terms. I know you think 30-50 is nonsense but what sort of number would not surprise you ?

 

*Assuming inflation at 5% which is nothing more than a guestimate.

 

The market is in a bit of a state at the moment; of that there's no doubt. There isn't really too much going on. There is a deluge of properties on the market and most of them aren't going to shift any time soon. For that reason, I think it's really quite difficult to assess it. I think those who can will just wait until they achieve what they perceive to be a reasonable price.

 

There's no doubt that it's complicated by not only variations in Edinburgh localities but also types of property. Newbuilds for example, I wouldn't be surprised with 30-50% falls over the short to medium term.

 

I really wouldn't like to say but taking into account the effects of inflation at the moment, falls of 8-15% wouldn't surprise me.