The Old Tolbooth Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 Cheers Mr Mitchell. So are these lenders asking serious amounts of cash to partake of their cash ? Is it generally getting harder for your average FTB to get a mortgage ? Cheers Mr M. Miko rocks Yer average cost of rates to be booked look around the ?1000 mark, and thats to book a rate of 7% plus!!!! Your average first time buyer will struggle now big time to get a mortgage without some sort of deposit and a squeaky clean credit rating mate. It really is a totally different ball game now CC, quite scary! Loving the Miko is god bit ha ha!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 Yer average cost of rates to be booked look around the ?1000 mark, and thats to book a rate of 7% plus!!!! Your average first time buyer will struggle now big time to get a mortgage without some sort of deposit and a squeaky clean credit rating mate. It really is a totally different ball game now CC, quite scary! Loving the Miko is god bit ha ha!!!! Cheers for the info. So the question now is just WHO is going to buy all these overpriced flats out there just now ? It doesn't matter if someone WANTS to buy it, they can want away.... If the bank won't give them a mortgage they wont be able to buy. At the same time everyone who has been investing in property for capital gains, BTL etc.. is also bailing out just now. Once real big falls become apparent the vast majority will jump ship. So all I can see is lots of houses up for sale, and very few people wanting, or able to buy them. I take it this is not good news for mortgage business ? While in the short term it will be painful - in the long term it needs to happen. People will only be able to borrow what they can afford - Good thing. The average person will once again be able to afford the average house - Good thing. I am still amazed at how so many people think cheaper houses is a bad thing !!?? Anything else goes down in price people rejoice, but with houses the opposite applies. Very strange. Brainwashing by years of "property porn" has done the trick IMO. I was almost sucked in myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 This is moving faster than even I predicted..... http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/business/Stewart-Saunders-in-liquidation.3932515.jp Stewart Saunders in liquidation "ONE of Scotland's largest independent estate agencies has gone into liquidation. The closure comes just a year after the company heralded record sales in 2006 of about ?65 million – 25 per cent up on the previous year. Managing director David Alves said at the time that demand was outstripping supply in Edinburgh. The firm cheered house sales worth ?1.5m in the first three working days of 2007 and predicted it was on track for another bumper year." What was that I was saying earlier ? That I know more about this than most people in real positions of power ? It seems I was correct. And this is not me trying to give it a 'told you so'. I am simply pointing out to people out there the truth. Do not believe what the so called 'experts' tell you about what is going on. They will change their tune as soon as it suits them. They do not have a clue. This is being proven day after day. I know more about the Edinburgh Housing market than the Managing Director of one of Scotlands leading estate agencies..... I have never even owned a house in Edinburgh..... If that doesn't worry you then nothing will !!! These people simply do not have a clue about the factors out with their control that are having a huge effect on all of us around the World. They know what has happened in the last 10 years. They have only guessed what will happen in the next 10 years. They were very very wrong, IMO. As I have said, if you have bought property in the hope of making money. Good luck. You will certainly need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 "When everyone is making money, it is already too late." When everyone decides - "Isn't it a great time to be an Estate Agent, aren't they making so much money"......... Well work it out for yourself? ?Anyone who is thinking about becoming an estate agent soon needs their heads examined. The EA business will see huge redundancies in the next few years. 99.9999% guaranteed? ?As I have said most EA's and Mortgage advisors have zero clue about the situation at the present.? ?I will keep on with this line until people realise I am correct !!? Well I think I am finished with this thread. Cheers for the debate it has been interesting. I think my views on the housing market/estate agents/economy have been more than vindicated. I cannot actually believe how fast this is all moving. I suppose it is the 'information' age we all live in. I can't even open a paper or switch on the TV without seeing some 'expert' spouting what I have been stating for well over a year. Maybe they could have employed me as an 'expert'. Even though I am far from that I still seem to know more than 95% of this countries population.Scary stuff. This crash truly is going to be carnage. I just hope I can still get work during it. As for my views on gold investment well that's another story, still up but only by a smidgen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Keep talking to yourself and I'll call the men with the white coats to come and get you in the van with square wheels who will take you to a safe place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I spoke to a mate in the property business tonight about it, his basic premise is that growth will slow to around 2% per annum over the next year in terms of value increase. He doesn't foresee a situation where property values will drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I spoke to a mate in the property business tonight about it, his basic premise is that growth will slow to around 2% per annum over the next year in terms of value increase. He doesn't foresee a situation where property values will drop. That's about the long and short of it, certainly for Edinburgh and environs. Houses are still moving with regularity but capital growth is slowing. Ironically enough, the original subject of this thread I suspect will be the real reason for the collapse of Stewart Saunders; that and a dose of financial niavety. It's nice and neat for the company to blame the housing slump, rather than admit to their own shortfalls. Solicitors firms have been merging and streamlining actively for a decade now. Careful CC, you've just about become a victim of your own principles. Don't believe everything you read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Well I think I am finished with this thread. Cheers for the debate it has been interesting. I think my views on the housing market/estate agents/economy have been more than vindicated. I cannot actually believe how fast this is all moving. I suppose it is the 'information' age we all live in. I can't even open a paper or switch on the TV without seeing some 'expert' spouting what I have been stating for well over a year. Maybe they could have employed me as an 'expert'. Even though I am far from that I still seem to know more than 95% of this countries population.Scary stuff. This crash truly is going to be carnage. I just hope I can still get work during it. As for my views on gold investment well that's another story, still up but only by a smidgen..... You are at it again.Please report both sides of the story not just what suits you. It appears that Stewarts Saunders failure is due to new propertys.This is the area where people are going to get hurt. http://business.scotsman.com/business/Stewart-Saunders-failure-39a-oneoff39.3936520.jp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 You are at it again.Please report both sides of the story not just what suits you. It appears that Stewarts Saunders failure is due to new propertys.This is the area where people are going to get hurt.http://business.scotsman.com/business/Stewart-Saunders-failure-39a-oneoff39.3936520.jp You really just don't see it do you ? "But industry insiders yesterday said Saunders' failure was likely to be a "one-off" and did not suggest the property market was in trouble" So lets see. One Estate agent goes bust and other Estate Agents come out and say all is good don't worry about it. I Can't believe I even have to point these things out to people..... The above article you have linked is BACKED BY ESTATE AGENTS !!!! You ever heard about Turkeys voting for Christmas........... Think about it. Use your own brain. Don't believe the brainwashing. Solicitors firms have been merging and streamlining actively for a decade now Chip, Chip - come on now. I think liquidation is a little different from 'streamlining or merging'. You going to tell me Northern Rock were just 'streamlining' next.... How about you tell me the last time one of Edinburgh's (Prices will never fall) larger Estate Agents went bust....... Northern Rock was also a 'one off'. Doesn't make it any less significant. Same goes for Stewart Saunders. Their situation is a CLEAR SIGNAL. If you don't want to see itt hen fine. It is staring you in the face however. Wake up people. Keep talking to yourself and I'll call the men with the white coats to come and get you in the van with square wheels who will take you to a safe place Maybe you are right Mr Mitchell !! At least I think I am getting through to people now. How about todays latest news - First Direct doing ZERO mortgages for new customers from today 'until further notice'. RBS and NW raising their variable interest rates. Seeing as you are in the business how about you explain to those above what this will mean for the market. I don't think they can see the difference between demand and supply of MONEY, and demand and supply for PROPERTY. Bank won't give you the mortgage = You won't buy the house, whether you want it or not. Not rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Rather than actually answer your question directly as I think we all know the answer already, I've copied and pasted a paragraph from a financial newsletter I recieve on a monthly basis which I found interesting. Make of it what you will as it is only an IFA's opinion. In this time of banks going under and so forth, it is common as an IFA to be asked by a client where their money is safest. The following is where I believe cash is safest. Firstly, it is safest with an insurance company such as AIG. Sure the minimum deposit is ?100,000, but you are covered by the insurance company guarantee scheme which is 90 % of the funds on deposit. The second place to look is the building societies – my favourites are Nationwide and the Coventry Building Society, they are owned by members and they have fairly restricted corporate governance about the amount they can lend against the amount they can borrow – they have to have the money they lend on deposit and so are not likely to be affected by the credit problems. The third place to look is Northern Rock, which of course is gold plated savings thanks to the government. Lastly I can suggest the larger commercial banks like Lloyds, which is doing particularly well, both because it avoided taking over Northern Rock, and also because by luck or good judgement, has managed to avoid some of the worst problems in the banking industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Sorry had to add another detail..... Just watched the BBC1 news. There are now 18% less mortgage products available in the UK this week. This is not compared to 5 years ago. This is not compared to 1 year ago. This is not compared to 6 months ago. This is not compared to 1 month ago. THIS IS COMPARED TO 1 WEEK AGO. OMG. Please anyone who still thinks prices are not going to plummet - WAKE UP BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE !!! I am actually astounded that with all the evidence slapping them across the face people are still insistent that prices won't fall in Edinburgh. Do we have special mortgage lenders that don't exist anywhere else or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Sorry had to add another detail..... Just watched the BBC1 news. There are now 18% less mortgage products available in the UK this week. This is not compared to 5 years ago. This is not compared to 1 year ago. This is not compared to 6 months ago. This is not compared to 1 month ago. THIS IS COMPARED TO 1 WEEK AGO. OMG. Please anyone who still thinks prices are not going to plummet - WAKE UP BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE !!! I am actually astounded that with all the evidence slapping them across the face people are still insistent that prices won't fall in Edinburgh. Do we have special mortgage lenders that don't exist anywhere else or something... Ok you have watched the news and above you state that YOU KNOW MORE THAN THE EDINBURGH ESTATE AGENTS so can we please have a precise % on the predicted fall of the Edinburgh market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 OMG. Please anyone who still thinks prices are not going to plummet - WAKE UP BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE !!! I am actually astounded that with all the evidence slapping them across the face people are still insistent that prices won't fall in Edinburgh. You remind me of the old guys with the "end of the world is nigh" sandwich boards. The ones that will have a smile on their face when armageddon arrives. You chose to ignore my earlier post which was based on a chat with a friend who sells houses for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 You remind me of the old guys with the "end of the world is nigh" sandwich boards. The ones that will have a smile on their face when armageddon arrives. You chose to ignore my earlier post which was based on a chat with a friend who sells houses for a living. Tazio, I act for Banks who lend to investment companies/developers primarily but many of my good friends and colleagues I speak to daily are residential property solicitors and property negotiators/assistants/estate agents. One good friend in particular (he does work for one of the most active firms in the Edinburgh market) is currently getting up at 6.30am to put properties on the market. It could be a sign that people are panicking (and also the single survey comes in at the end of the year) however the properties are still shifting. The media is largely responsible for whipping our little armageddon obsessed chum into a frenzy but I've maintained this all along, and this has been my only point really here, the Edinburgh housing market is not going to suffer a monumental crash; slowing yes, "carnage"......eh, naw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Tazio, I act for Banks who lend to investment companies/developers primarily but many of my good friends and colleagues I speak to daily are residential property solicitors and property negotiators/assistants/estate agents. One good friend in particular (he does work for one of the most active firms in the Edinburgh market) is currently getting up at 6.30am to put properties on the market. It could be a sign that people are panicking (and also the single survey comes in at the end of the year) however the properties are still shifting. The media is largely responsible for whipping our little armageddon obsessed chum into a frenzy but I've maintained this all along, and this has been my only point really here, the Edinburgh housing market is not going to suffer a monumental crash; slowing yes, "carnage"......eh, naw. Can look at this a number of ways - factors affecting Edinburgh house prices: 1) Economic growth - set to slow in Edinburgh in the mid term given coming financial services downturn, construction downturn and necessary Government/Council downsizing, likely to see reduction in tourism from the US perhaps balanced by increase from Europe/UK. 2) Household formation - more single people, people living longer, more immigration/economic migration still likely - so more houses/flats required. 3) Relative price trends of commuting areas - these areas have seen prices rise as quickly in recent years. 4) Yield attractions - ie potential rental yield vs mortgage costs - the attraction of this is disappearing very quickly. 5) Rental market - in the past (30 years ago) most people rented their house from a landlord or the Council; combination of desire to own house/rising price expectations have changed this - perhaps we will see price expectations change (Tokyo land prices - previously thought to be incapable of falling - are at 20-30% of their 1990 levels). If people expect house prices to fall they might reduce their demand. 6) Availability and cost of mortgage financing - disappearing and rising respectively at the moment. Cheap buy to let finished. On balance it would seem to me that the 'property ladder' might become the snake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Ok you have watched the news and above you state that YOU KNOW MORE THAN THE EDINBURGH ESTATE AGENTS so can we please have a precise % on the predicted fall of the Edinburgh market. Come on give me a break. A PRECISE figure I have come out and said prices will fall in Edinburgh. That is completely different to what 95% of people will tell you. I have nailed my colours to the mast fair and square. I have already guessed before on this thread. Between 30-50% would be my rough guess. This is in REAL value. If we get those falls in in nominal values I would be surprised, but not out of the question. The REAL value falls are a very important thing that people usually have no idea about. You remind me of the old guys with the "end of the world is nigh" sandwich boards. (1)The ones that will have a smile on their face when armageddon arrives. You chose to ignore my earlier post which was based on a (2)chat with a friend who sells houses for a living. (1) Armageddon ? I want a situation where tha average person can afford the average house. I want a situation where people are not indebted like slaves for their entire lives due to brainwashing by TV programmes and Estate agents. I want to be able to buy a reasonable house for a reasonable price. Tell me in what way any of that is 'armageddon' and I will give you ?10,000. Honest 100%. The situation we have at present is armageddon. It is armeggedon for any normal person wanting to ever buy a home. That situation is coming to an end. That is a good thing. I hope it doesn't take a complete breakdown of the world's economy for it to happen though !! That would be akin to armaggedon and that is not something I would want to happen. I do not discount the possibilty though. If it happens it happens. (2) Turkeys + Christmas + Voting + For. What do you expect people that sell houses for a living to say ? That they are all ****ed ................ I prefer to listen to people that don't have a vested interest in this to give me their opinions. Call me crazy and all but I reckon their advice and knowledge may be more believable. The media is largely responsible for whipping our little armageddon obsessed chum into a frenzy but I've maintained this all along Chip Chip Chip.... I have been talking about a housing crash for a long time prior to the media jumping on the bandwagon(Numerous posters on this thread can back that up). I have been telling people at my work the market is ****ed for over 2 years. The stories in the press have only been apparent in the last 2 or 3 months. Please stop sticking the the party line and think for yourself !! The media are responsible for whipping up one thing for sure. That is a 'property obsessed nation' over the last 10 years. They have now changed their tune and will do exactly the opposite on the way down. Of course as I have said before I could be wrong. But I reckon at the moment the chances of that are about 10000000-1. Sentiment has changed. People are now expectign prices to fall. That is more than enough considering the ball is already rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boaby Ewing Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I wonder if Coppercrutch's head will explode when he watches this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOUlom4-EBw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 ....I have been talking about a housing crash for a long time prior to the media jumping on the bandwagon(Numerous posters on this thread can back that up). I have been telling people at my work the market is ****ed for over 2 years.. When is this crash going to happen? This doomsday scenario of yours is a bit like the countdown timers on hibs.net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 When is this crash going to happen? This doomsday scenario of yours is a bit like the countdown timers on hibs.net. My goodness. You think a housing crash is over in a matter of months or something !? This will happen over the next 2-5 years, maybe more who knows. It has already started, no doubt about that. Think about how long this 'boom' has lasted, over 10 years. Think about it..... House prices in Edinburgh have fallen in the last 2 quarters. That hasn't happened in who knows, maybe 10 years ? A large Edinburgh Estate Agent just went bust. That hasn't happened in who knows, maybe 20 years ? There are now less than a third of the mortgage products available to people than there were only a year ago. It is extremely difficult to get any mortgage now at over 90% LTV. That hasn't happened in who knows, maybe 10 years. How many hints do people need.................... I plan to have 100k saved in 3 years. I predict I will be able to buy a very nice place outright at that time. If i want to. Mortgage free. You can't even get a **** flat in Gorgie for that at present. Joke. You are all welcome to join the party as well. But for that you will need to go against the grain. Not many people have the balls for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I wonder if Coppercrutch's head will explode when he watches this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOUlom4-EBw Presenter - "How are you going to bring stability to the markets?" Salmond - "We have a profile in the industries that are going to lead growth.......and Financial Services" Very next sentence: Salmond-"Scotland is a great bet in a time of financial instability" How stupid can the guy be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I plan to have 100k saved in 3 years. I predict I will be able to buy a very nice place outright at that time. If i want to. Mortgage free. Coppercrutch's Adventures in LaLa Land Volume 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Come on give me a break. A PRECISE figure I have come out and said prices will fall in Edinburgh. That is completely different to what 95% of people will tell you. I have nailed my colours to the mast fair and square. I have already guessed before on this thread. Between 30-50% would be my rough guess. This is in REAL value. If we get those falls in in nominal values I would be surprised, but not out of the question. The REAL value falls are a very important thing that people usually have no idea about. (1) Armageddon ? I want a situation where tha average person can afford the average house. I want a situation where people are not indebted like slaves for their entire lives due to brainwashing by TV programmes and Estate agents. I want to be able to buy a reasonable house for a reasonable price. Tell me in what way any of that is 'armageddon' and I will give you ?10,000. Honest 100%. The situation we have at present is armageddon. It is armeggedon for any normal person wanting to ever buy a home. That situation is coming to an end. That is a good thing. I hope it doesn't take a complete breakdown of the world's economy for it to happen though !! That would be akin to armaggedon and that is not something I would want to happen. I do not discount the possibilty though. If it happens it happens. (2) Turkeys + Christmas + Voting + For. What do you expect people that sell houses for a living to say ? That they are all ****ed ................ I prefer to listen to people that don't have a vested interest in this to give me their opinions. Call me crazy and all but I reckon their advice and knowledge may be more believable. Chip Chip Chip.... I have been talking about a housing crash for a long time prior to the media jumping on the bandwagon(Numerous posters on this thread can back that up). I have been telling people at my work the market is ****ed for over 2 years. The stories in the press have only been apparent in the last 2 or 3 months. Please stop sticking the the party line and think for yourself !! The media are responsible for whipping up one thing for sure. That is a 'property obsessed nation' over the last 10 years. They have now changed their tune and will do exactly the opposite on the way down. Of course as I have said before I could be wrong. But I reckon at the moment the chances of that are about 10000000-1. Sentiment has changed. People are now expectign prices to fall. That is more than enough considering the ball is already rolling. [30-50%Now i know you are a wind up merchant ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Coppercrutch's Adventures in LaLa Land Volume 68. Predictions: Estate agents redundancies - CORRECT. Edinburgh house prices falling - CORRECT. (Only time will tell by how much) Edinburgh House prices crashing - Still TBC. Gold shooting up - Iffy. Economy in a mess - CORRECT. Not doing bad if I do say so myself. Especially considering most people would have laughed (and they did) when I told them this well over a year ago. I do love the obvious that is happening here. People slowly finding it more and more difficult to argue with what I have to say. Realising that I have been saying this for a lot longer than it has been plastered all over the media. The slow realisation of the truth finally sinking in. And best of all the intense desperation never, ever to admit this. "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win" Coppercrutch (May have previously been mentioned by someone else too..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 30-50%Now i know you are a wind up merchant ] If your house is worth the same in 5 years as it is now, and inflation is about 5-10% for these years then my predictions will be correct. Of course it could be a lot worse than that. Work out the maths of REAL value and then come back and tell me how amusing this is to you. People don't understand that just TO KEEP THE SAME VALUE a house has to rise by at least the rate of inflation. If a house falls by 5% nominal value in one year (Edinburgh houses have already done this) and inflation is running at 5% then the REAL value has fallen by 10%.... That means Edinburgh house prices have fallen by ~10% in real terms ALREADY. How about you tell me that is wrong..... PS. Think about people getting an annual 'wage increase' to make it easier to understand. They do not actually get paid anymore. The % increase is simply to keep the VALUE of their money roughly similar. Exactly the same for house prices. This is something Kirsty Allsop and her chums won't mention very often however.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Predictions: Estate agents redundancies - CORRECT. Edinburgh house prices falling - CORRECT. (Only time will tell by how much) Edinburgh House prices crashing - Still TBC. Gold shooting up - Iffy. Economy in a mess - CORRECT. Not doing bad if I do say so myself. Especially considering most people would have laughed (and they did) when I told them this well over a year ago. I do love the obvious that is happening here. People slowly finding it more and more difficult to argue with what I have to say. Realising that I have been saying this for a lot longer than it has been plastered all over the media. The slow realisation of the truth finally sinking in. And best of all the intense desperation never, ever to admit this. "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win" Coppercrutch (May have previously been mentioned by someone else too..) I have to apologise and I don't want to hurt your feelings here but I haven't previously noticed you preaching from the parapets, until this thread of course. Purely on what you've come out with on this thread, using a newspaper analogy, you're something akin to the Daily Star. You're coming out with the "world exclusive" facts and figures, emphasising the sensationalism elements of the economic global downturn, blowing your own trumpet and passing off other's opinions as your own; alas there is little in the way of objective analysis and critique. As I think I already said on this thread, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Credit to sticking to your guns though and predicting the carnage before anyone else, anywhere. I hope you're still around in 3 years, I'll certainly be investing in a row of houses in your neighbourhood. Just for your information, I could list you at least 4/5 solicitor/estate firms who went under (or "merged") when the housing boom was at its peak over the past 8 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I have to apologise and I don't want to hurt your feelings here but I haven't previously noticed you preaching from the parapets, until this thread of course. Purely on what you've come out with on this thread, using a newspaper analogy, you're something akin to the Daily Star. You're coming out with the "world exclusive" facts and figures, emphasising the sensationalism elements of the economic global downturn, blowing your own trumpet and passing off other's opinions as your own; alas there is little in the way of objective analysis and critique. As I think I already said on this thread, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Credit to sticking to your guns though and predicting the carnage before anyone else, anywhere. I hope you're still around in 3 years, I'll certainly be investing in a row of houses in your neighbourhood. Just for your information, I could list you at least 4/5 solicitor/estate firms who went under (or "merged") when the housing boom was at its peak over the past 8 years or so. I never said anything like that. I have just backed myself up considering you claimed I have been 'whipped up by the media'. That is a complete lie and you know it. I have been stating this for a long time before the numpties at the BBC even had a thought this was all coming. You know I am right Chip. You have realised that you probably should have known this all yourself but have only recently bothered to look into it. No problem with that, would be impressive if you admitted it though. PS - So who were these EA's ? How many actually went insolvent (and 'merging' is not allowed I am afraid !!) ? And how many were of the size and stature of Stewart Saunders ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 There is little in the way of objective analysis and critique. I cannot actually believe you have said that. I am truly shocked. I have put down many many arguments, facts, figures, opinions, links, predictions, plans, strategies etc.. Your entire argument however seems to revolve around 'I know people who tell me it's all going to be fine'. Incredible. And I am the one who has no analysis of this subject..... Astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 For all those that think it can't happen here, we are a little Island, demand and supply etc.. have a look at the following articles on Japans problems in the last 20 years. Spot the similarities to our situation at present. Doesn't mean exactly the same thing is going to happen. It does show that it easily could however. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble "with so much money readily available for investment, speculation was inevitable, particularly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the real estate market" "At the height of the bubble, a commonly-quoted claim was that the land beneath the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than the entire state of California. Japan regained a sense of national pride and assertiveness as a result of its new power" "2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts were less than 1/100th of their peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were 1/10th of their peak" "The easily obtainable credit that had helped create and engorge the real estate bubble continued to be a problem for several years to come" "Correcting the credit problem became even more difficult as the government began to subsidize failing banks and businesses, creating many zombie businesses" http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/API_Nov06.htm "too many Japanese homebuyers overextended their borrowing to buy property that cost more than they could sensibly afford, because they wrongly assumed that house prices could only rise" "Most of all, Japan's experience teaches the need to be aware of the untruth behind all asset bubbles: that prices will keep rising forever." "The biggest lesson from Japan is not to fall into the same state of denial that existed here," "During a bubble, people don't believe that prices will fall," he said. "This has been proven wrong so many times in the past. But there's something in human nature that makes us unable to learn from history." The final line is the simplest explanation in this entire thread. Read it and think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I cannot actually believe you have said that. I am truly shocked. I have put down many many arguments, facts, figures, opinions, links, predictions, plans, strategies etc.. Your entire argument however seems to revolve around 'I know people who tell me it's all going to be fine'. Incredible. And I am the one who has no analysis of this subject..... Astounding. I'm not going to give you my detailed and considered views on the matter, CC, mainly because I can't actually be @rsed. People pay me around the ?200 an hour mark for that. This is clearly quite a hobby for you, it certainly aint for me, I'm just trading in a bit of horseplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I never said anything like that. I have just backed myself up considering you claimed I have been 'whipped up by the media'. That is a complete lie and you know it. I have been stating this for a long time before the numpties at the BBC even had a thought this was all coming. You know I am right Chip. You have realised that you probably should have known this all yourself but have only recently bothered to look into it. No problem with that, would be impressive if you admitted it though. PS - So who were these EA's ? How many actually went insolvent (and 'merging' is not allowed I am afraid !!) ? And how many were of the size and stature of Stewart Saunders ? For "merge", read going under, until benevolent firms came in to save bacon. Not exclusively estate agents per se but well known property firms. Ironically, in my year and a half or so of doing exclusively residential property, I never once came across Stewart Saunders. Remax was their death knell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 I'm not going to give you my detailed and considered views on the matter, CC, mainly because I can't actually be @rsed. People pay me around the ?200 an hour mark for that. This is clearly quite a hobby for you, it certainly aint for me, I'm just trading in a bit of horseplay. Chip just concede that my knowledge has impressed you. Go on I will be very impressed. Funny how you won't give me your 'detailed considered views' on this but you are happy to reply about 40 times on this thread. Strange that. Thing is I have been telling you things on this thread that you and your mates that do this professionally had no clue about. That surprises you. Fair enough, none of us know everything. You could at least admit this however. You predicted a slowing of growth in Edinburgh. With no proce falls. Prices have already fallen. The figures are there for all to see. You are wrong already. So just what do people pay you ?200 per hour to do. Get things wrong on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 I used to work for Stewart Saunders a couple of years ago, Really sad to see them go bust : looks like tough times ahead for estate agents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 I used to work for Stewart Saunders a couple of years ago, Really sad to see them go bust : looks like tough times ahead for estate agents. An insider !! Welcome to the debate. So can I ask your professinal opinion please ? Seeing as I have never worked in an EA. Were they a pretty well run company ? Seemed to be doing ok ? In your opinion if they have gone bust with serious money problems what are the chances of others going down the pan with them ? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 People need the banks to give them the money to get a mortgage. If the banks start pulling back on their lending, which is happening by the day, then it doesn't matter if Mr Smith wants to pay half a million for the home. The bank will decide if he gets it or not. This is what could lead to a massive crash in house prices in the next few years If banks are unwilling to lend to each other, then they have to reign in what they will lend to your average Joe. Unless I am very much mistaken that is exactly what is happening Read what I stated about a month ago. Now think about what you have been seeing in the news this week - "Mortgage Crunch".... This has happened far quicker than I think anybody imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 To be honest I havn't kept in contact with anyone at the company recently. But while I was there the place seemed to be very well run, this has come as a complete shock to me! Had alot of property on the market including a few new build developments. Dont want to say to much about it to be honest. Really didn't see this coming!! If Stewart Saunders has went bust I think more will follow. Shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 To be honest I havn't kept in contact with anyone at the company recently. But while I was there the place seemed to be very well run, this has come as a complete shock to me! Had alot of property on the market including a few new build developments. Dont want to say to much about it to be honest. Really didn't see this coming!! If Stewart Saunders has went bust I think more will follow. Shocked. Cheers for that. Nice to hear something "Straight from the horses mouth" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Cheers for that. Nice to hear something "Straight from the horses mouth" so to speak. Didn't realise the place had shut down until I read through this thread! Will be interesting to see what happens next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 To be honest I havn't kept in contact with anyone at the company recently. But while I was there the place seemed to be very well run, this has come as a complete shock to me! Had alot of property on the market including a few new build developments. Dont want to say to much about it to be honest. Really didn't see this coming!! If Stewart Saunders has went bust I think more will follow. Shocked. So as an ex employee you are confirming the Evening News story that Stewart Saunders where heavily into new build developments.There you are Coopercrutch straight from the horses mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 If your house is worth the same in 5 years as it is now, and inflation is about 5-10% for these years then my predictions will be correct. Of course it could be a lot worse than that. Work out the maths of REAL value and then come back and tell me how amusing this is to you. People don't understand that just TO KEEP THE SAME VALUE a house has to rise by at least the rate of inflation. If a house falls by 5% nominal value in one year (Edinburgh houses have already done this) and inflation is running at 5% then the REAL value has fallen by 10%.... That means Edinburgh house prices have fallen by ~10% in real terms ALREADY. How about you tell me that is wrong..... PS. Think about people getting an annual 'wage increase' to make it easier to understand. They do not actually get paid anymore. The % increase is simply to keep the VALUE of their money roughly similar. Exactly the same for house prices. This is something Kirsty Allsop and her chums won't mention very often however.... Thats great news for me my boss has just given me a 10% rise so that means iam 5% to the good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 I would love to hear the people that have a serious debate. I am still waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neobis Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 I would love to hear the people that have a serious debate. I am still waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Come on go for it !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Chip just concede that my knowledge has impressed you. Go on I will be very impressed. Funny how you won't give me your 'detailed considered views' on this but you are happy to reply about 40 times on this thread. Strange that. Thing is I have been telling you things on this thread that you and your mates that do this professionally had no clue about. That surprises you. Fair enough, none of us know everything. You could at least admit this however. You predicted a slowing of growth in Edinburgh. With no proce falls. Prices have already fallen. The figures are there for all to see. You are wrong already. So just what do people pay you ?200 per hour to do. Get things wrong on a regular basis. I'm sorry CC, none of what you've come up with impresses me in the slightest nor is it news to me, in fact I am little scared of you. You come across as an obsessive nerd. I was always told at school to be wary of nerds. I'm sure you're a nice guy in real life though. We're discussing our predictions for capital growth in the Edinburgh region over the next 12 month period, you're already claiming a moral victory barely one month into that period. Get a life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Come on go for it !!! What are you wanting a serious debate on here? Future events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 What are you wanting a serious debate on here? Future events? Chip is wasted !!! Respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Chip is wasted !!! Respect. That's not really the response I was expecting. What are you getting at? You're making as much sense as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walter Payton Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 I would love to hear the people that have a serious debate. I am still waiting Coppercrutch, for what it's worth I think you've posted some good points in this thread that seem to make sense and has certainly got me interested in whether you are proven right... BUT Spending your Friday night posting that you're going to be waiting for someone to continue this debate? You need to get laid mate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Coppercrutch, for what it's worth I think you've posted some good points in this thread that seem to make sense and has certainly got me interested in whether you are proven right... BUT Spending your Friday night posting that you're going to be waiting for someone to continue this debate? You need to get laid mate! You have a fair point Andy in Oz - I was wasted !! I think JKB should have a little button you press when you are ****ed so that everyone else knows !! I was on the Peroni at the Candy bar. Ouch to the head and the pocket. Anyway I just saw an interesting Evening News article. Their PR spin is in full effect. At least they are now admitting a few areas may see 'small drops' in the next few years. If the EN is saying that then expect serious falls. http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/edinburgh/Foundations-hold-firm--despite.3948377.jp If people don't believe that these papers are full of spin then have a look at what our very own Leslie Deans says........... "To me a slump means that when something was worth ?300,000 one day, the next day it is ?200,000. There is absolutely no evidence of that at all. It just will not happen in Edinburgh." So according to an 'expert' if your property falls in value by ?75,000 in 24 hours he would not class that as a SLUMP........ Wake up people. These guys are having a laugh with your life savings and future bankruptcy. If Leslie Deans is talking in numbers like that he clearly expects prices to fall, but less than 33%. So if he is expecting 20-25ish % falls then people with seriously large mortgages should be very worried. IMO of course. PS. Sorry about the pic Chip, I just googled 'Chip' when wasted and that's what I got. Is that you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Coppercrutch, for what it's worth I think you've posted some good points in this thread that seem to make sense and has certainly got me interested in whether you are proven right... BUT Spending your Friday night posting that you're going to be waiting for someone to continue this debate? You need to get laid mate! He cant get laid because his mummy wont let him bring girls back to the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 He cant get laid because his mummy wont let him bring girls back to the house Of course I can, I just sneak them upstairs !!! BTW you are starting to give me the impression you are not happy with my predictions. Possibly because it is not what you want to hear ? Possibly because you have recently bought a house at near 100% per chance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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