coppercrutch Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 The market is in a bit of a state at the moment; of that there's no doubt. There isn't really too much going on. There is a deluge of properties on the market and most of them aren't going to shift any time soon. For that reason, I think it's really quite difficult to assess it. I think those who can will just wait until they achieve what they perceive to be a reasonable price. There's no doubt that it's complicated by not only variations in Edinburgh localities but also types of property. Newbuilds for example, I wouldn't be surprised with 30-50% falls over the short to medium term. I really wouldn't like to say but taking into account the effects of inflation at the moment, falls of 8-15% wouldn't surprise me. Cheers. Seems we agree about new builds. Only difference is in quality homes. I just think your figures are a little optimistic/pessimistic depending on your viewpoint. Take a nice detached house that would have sold last summer for 400k. Lets say in 4 years that house is selling for 300k. Is that so crazy a thought ? I personally do not think so. The same house rose the same amount in the space of 2 years so why not the same in reverse.... If we assume that inflation averages 5% over those years then that would be a 45% fall. I just find it difficult to understand people when they say 'This will not happen'. I told people at my work that bank shares would collapse this year. They all thought I was mad. Now the shares are even lower than I predicted* !! I don't see why House prices will be any different. Supply and demand of credit is what is important, and that is disappearing by the minute. *I should have done a bit of spread betting on them. Would have made a fortune.:rolleyes:Think I may do a bit of shorting now. Don't reckon bank shares have bottomed out by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Take a nice detached house that would have sold last summer for 400k. Lets say in 4 years that house is selling for 300k. Is that so crazy a thought ? I personally do not think so. The same house rose the same amount in the space of 2 years so why not the same in reverse.... If we assume that inflation averages 5% over those years then that would be a 45% fall. I just find it difficult to understand people when they say 'This will not happen'. Can you explain your maths here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chester copperpot Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Can you explain your maths here? Who cares, I'm minted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Can you explain your maths here? Its a high level example, so I have not bothered about compound effects of interest etc.. to work all that out !! My brain would hurt if I tried that. Basically inlfation of 5% over 4 years erodes approx 20% of a properties real value. At the same time a price drop from 400k to 300k erodes 25% of its nominal value. Combined circa 45% overall. I am just trying to show that a real drop in house prices of up to 50% is not actually that crazy an idea. Does the example given above look 'pie in the sky' ? I don't think so. You get the idea !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Its a high level example, so I have not bothered about compound effects of interest etc.. to work all that out !! My brain would hurt if I tried that. Basically inlfation of 5% over 4 years erodes approx 20% of a properties real value. At the same time a price drop from 400k to 300k erodes 25% of its nominal value. Combined circa 45% overall. I am just trying to show that a real drop in house prices of up to 50% is not actually that crazy an idea. Does the example given above look 'pie in the sky' ? I don't think so. You get the idea !! Given your expertise in inflation, I would have thought you'd find it pretty simple to work out. Regardless of whether or not your example is "pie in the sky", it would be definitely be better supported by calculating the figures correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Given your expertise in inflation, I would have thought you'd find it pretty simple to work out. Regardless of whether or not your example is "pie in the sky", it would be definitely be better supported by calculating the figures correctly. I am talking in general terms. My prediction is falls in Edinburgh of between 30-50% in real terms. I am almost certain we will see that. I know of a few people who have sold in Edinburgh recently after being on the market for a while. They have seen nominal falls of more than 10% already. This is being repeated all around the City. If you want to concentrate on small details that is fine. I prefer looking at the bigger picture. The bigger picture tells me one thing. The property market in Edinburgh is goosed. Get used to it. Not going to change for at least 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 If you want to concentrate on small details that is fine. I prefer looking at the bigger picture. Fair dues. Odd that you decided to use a specific example, in that case, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Fair dues. Odd that you decided to use a specific example, in that case, though. It is just when you say things like '30-50% real falls' most people immediately dismiss it. When you actually use a real example over the next few years and spell out the numbers it doesn't seem anywhere near as 'pie in the sky'. See all I am predicting is that house prices will revert back to their long term average. Nothing more. What I am predicting is actually the most likely thing to happen. If house prices don't fall that much then the long term trends and averages will be broken. I find that highly unlikely as these things are long term trends for a reason !! I don't think most people realise this. Someone predicting house prices in Edinburgh wont fall is actually predicting a very unlikely scenario if you look at the bigger picture. What I am predicting fits in with long term trends. That is why it surprises me when people think what I am saying is so 'pie in the sky' !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 27, 2008 Share Posted September 27, 2008 Commercial lending feeds its way through to residential lending. That is the issue. If banks are unwilling to lend to each other, then they have to reign in what they will lend to your average Joe. Unless I am very much mistaken that is exactly what is happening. This is what happened to NR. They couldn't borrow commercially anymore and so essentially became bankrupt overnight. Of course they were the most exposed bank out there to this sort of lending. Many others though are not far behind, B & B amd A & L I think are the most at risk. Anyway let's see what happens. As you say no-one knows the future, but when the people who deny things until the last possible minute (Bank chiefs, Government etc...) start telling us it's getting pretty bad............... Well you can safely say it is going to get a lot worse than pretty bad. I should be ok. I have no debts, no one has any hold of me, I can go and work where I wish and I have savings safely tucked away. It is the average punter in the UK that should be worrying. The only problem is I think this Government is doing all it can to drag us sensible folk down with the losers. Using my tax to back up a failed bank is not particularly fair in my opinion. It should have been left to go bust. If the companies I have shares in go bust I won't be looking for hand outs. This was posted 6 months ago. As I have always said. They will tell you the facts WHEN they want to tell you the facts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david mcgee Posted September 27, 2008 Share Posted September 27, 2008 There has been great debate on kickback, which if we look back will make interesting reading. ( dont analyse everything ive said after a couple of shandys, so no gloating CC, although youve been spot on.) Some people have been horribly wrong, and its interesting to see how long it has taken some to see behind the curtains which our media like to keep us on the wrong side off. At the end of the day the working man will suffer the most as the result of this credit crunch. The people who worked their ass off and invested in property will suffer, every tax payer will suffer with higher taxes, unemployment will rise and those that least can afford to lose their jobs will suffer most ( the lowest paid), everyone that has a pension will take a hit. The richest people will get richer, the people with aspirations of joining them will be put in their place........................................................................................................................ and the merry go round will start again. Before we all get shafted again please learn to look behind the smoke and mirrors. I dont mind telling you i hate the Sir Freds and Andy Hornbys of this World but they too are minnions. ( greed and ego overtook them) The vast majority of their staff are hard working people who deserve so much better , they have been shafted, they even talk as if they are apologetic and embarrased by the situation, they have nothing to be ashamed off. As for Mr Kane at Lloyds , there is no apology from him, after all its all our own fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 This was posted 6 months ago. As I have always said. They will tell you the facts WHEN they want to tell you the facts.. Guardian article today predicting house prices to rise 60% in Edinburgh over the next 5 years very interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Guardian article today predicting house prices to rise 60% in Edinburgh over the next 5 years very interesting read. haha !!! Sure this wasn't in the Daily Mash or something... This has only just started. The Financial system is completely broken. Bail outs left right and centre. Lending restricted and banks finally realising that lending silly amounts of cash for people to buy houses is a seriously bad idea. Yet after all this people will somehow get the money to inflate Edinburgh prices to even higher levels.... The peak prices of spring 2007 are unlikely to be reached again for at least 5-10 years. If that. I would put that as 99.9% likely IMO. Some journo at the Guardian must have a wee portfolio and is ****ting themselves !! I am amazed there is still some denial left out there. Do people not watch the ****ing news...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 haha !!! Sure this wasn't in the Daily Mash or something... This has only just started. The Financial system is completely broken. Bail outs left right and centerer. Lending restricted and banks finally realizing that lending silly amounts of cash for people to buy houses is a seriously bad idea. Yet after all this people will somehow get the money to inflate Edinburgh prices to even higher levels.... The peak prices of spring 2007 are unlikely to be reached again for at least 5-10 years. If that. I would put that as 99.9% likely IMO. Some journo at the Guardian must have a wee portfolio and is ****ting themselves !! I am amazed there is still some denial left out there. Do people not watch the ****ing news...... I Would love to agree with you mate but this is not the sun or the daily ranger, this is the Guardian FACT prices to be 50 to 60 percent higher in 5 years . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 I Would love to agree with you mate but this is not the sun or the daily ranger, this is the Guardian FACT prices to be 50 to 60 percent higher in 5 years . You crack me up sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 You crack me up sometimes. panel of property experts say that is the case, personally i have my doubts I'm still after that elusive 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 70k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 panel of property experts say that is the case, personally i have my doubts I'm still after that elusive 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 70k. Learn from experience !!! How many of these 'experts' said 18 months ago prices in Edinburgh would fall ? I will give you a clue - ZERO. These people don't have a clue. I think that has been conclusively proven 100%. I can't believe I am still having this debate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Learn from experience !!! How many of these 'experts' said 18 months ago prices in Edinburgh would fall ? I will give you a clue - ZERO. These people don't have a clue. I think that has been conclusively proven 100%. I can't believe I am still having this debate.... funny you should say that, as the panel of so called experts predicted a 10 percent rise at the same time last year, they only do this survey once per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 funny you should say that, as the panel of so called experts predicted a 10 percent rise at the same time last year, they only do this survey once per year. Need I say more. Does it not shock you that I seem to know more than these so called experts.. I don't work in property, have never owned a property and have no qualifications at all in the subject. Yet I have a far better clue of what is going on here... Also you will find the 'comparisons' of prices start to stretch out. Last year it was all 'year on year'. Now you will see prices compared to 5 years ago, then 10 years ago. You will also see future predictions of the like - 'Average house price in UK in 2057 will be 1 million pounds !!' - and other pointless nonsense.. You know one amazing fact about the recent 10 % rises that some fools thought could last forever ? If house prices in the UK rose by 10% per year for 100 years do you know what the average price would be ? Over 4 BILLION pounds.... Just shows how little clue many people have on the subject. I can't get this article online. Let me take a crazy guess though. At least half of these 'experts' were solicitors, builders or estate agents... How many 'impartial'* experts were on the panel ? * If there is such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Need I say more. Does it not shock you that I seem to know more than these so called experts.. I don't work in property, have never owned a property and have no qualifications at all in the subject. Yet I have a far better clue of what is going on here... Also you will find the 'comparisons' of prices start to stretch out. Last year it was all 'year on year'. Now you will see prices compared to 5 years ago, then 10 years ago. You will also see future predictions of the like - 'Average house price in UK in 2057 will be 1 million pounds !!' - and other pointless nonsense.. You know one amazing fact about the recent 10 % rises that some fools thought could last forever ? If house prices in the UK rose by 10% per year for 100 years do you know what the average price would be ? Over 4 BILLION pounds.... Just shows how little clue many people have on the subject. I can't get this article on line. Let me take a crazy guess though. At least half of these 'experts' were solicitors, builders or estate agents... How many 'impartial'* experts were on the panel ? * If there is such a thing. fair point, and mad to think things will go up in price, my god petrol is now one pound six a litre, the way you got things calculated it will be 50 % cheaper in the next 5 years happy days, i can actually afford to run a car again, if you are right with your across the board deflation petrol will be 53p per litre in 5 years, I'm sick of getting the bus to work i prey you are right, ps Brown has just increased the minimum wage to 5 72 per hour thats a 65% rise in ten years, the twerp get him out, he has not got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 fair point, and mad to think things will go up in price, my god petrol is now one pound six a litre, the way you got things calculated it will be 50 % cheaper in the next 5 years happy days, i can actually afford to run a car again, if you are right with your across the board deflation petrol will be 53p per litre in 5 years, I'm sick of getting the bus to work i prey you are right, ps Brown has just increased the minimum wage to 5 72 per hour thats a 65% rise in ten years, the twerp get him out, he has not got a clue. I am still not sure about the whoel delfation/inflation aspect. Heard both sides of the story and the one I side with is probably a bit of both. Deflation of most assets, especially those overpriced ones bought with credit. (Especially Houses) Inflation of everything else that people need on a day to day basis (Food, petrol etc...) Not the best situation. Who knows though this whole thing is changing at a mental pace. BTW Fortis have apparently sold their ABN businesses to ING. They only bought them 10 months ago !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 JambosRBarry how do you like these numbers…… http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7641535.stm Mortgage lending in August 2008 was 98% less than the same month last year. Yes you heard that correct. I had to do a double take when I read that. The words 'carnage' & 'collapse' do not even come close. This is truly incredible. If you are trying & need to sell a house just now slash the price by 10%+ and make it stand out from the crowd. You may get a buyer if you are lucky. If you plan to 'wait it out' then unless something truly amazing happens you will probably be looking at falls of 50%+. Also you will probably be waiting at least 10 years until the house is worth the same as it was in 2007 - in real terms. Perhaps even nominal terms. I have been a 'doommonger' about all this so far. These sort of figures shock even myself. JambosRBarry just what evidence were these 'experts' using in the paper yesterday to say house prices in Edinburgh will rise by 60% over the next 5 years !! Do they live in a bubble !!?? The only way theit prediction will happen, IMO, is if we have a hyperinflationary explosion. Your house may cost 200k. However a loaf of bread will cost ?50. This outcome is unlikely however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 FYI This is net lending. Just had it explained to me. Difference between what people are being lent and what is being paid back. Can actually go negative and will probably soon. Astounding figures. Also 70% fewer mortgages agreed compared to this time last year. So what it looks like to my simple brain: So this time last year there was a massive amount of people taking on new debt and very little being paid back (Comparitively) Just now there is shedloads being paid back and a tiny amount of new debt being taken on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david mcgee Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 FYI This is net lending. Just had it explained to me. Difference between what people are being lent and what is being paid back. Can actually go negative and will probably soon. Astounding figures. Also 70% fewer mortgages agreed compared to this time last year. So what it looks like to my simple brain: So this time last year there was a massive amount of people taking on new debt and very little being paid back (Comparitively) Just now there is shedloads being paid back and a tiny amount of new debt being taken on. You would think with all this money being paid back at least the banks liquidity would improve, but even with ? 100,s of billions of Central bank loans the entire system is jammed. You would be as well asking primary school kids what to do next because its obvious Central Banks and Government dont have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted September 30, 2008 Share Posted September 30, 2008 A bit gloomy from the ESPC http://www.espc.co.uk/MarketReviewAug08.html Prices down 6.5% Vendors accepting prices below fixed price:eek: Looks like you catching up with us down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted September 30, 2008 Share Posted September 30, 2008 A bit gloomy from the ESPC http://www.espc.co.uk/MarketReviewAug08.html Prices down 6.5% Vendors accepting prices below fixed price:eek: Looks like you catching up with us down south. This is old news. I resisted the desire to bring it up last month !! As expected the ESPC and EA's will actually be the ones pushing prices down fastest. These guys need commission. Unrealistic prices from vendors = zero commission. How ironic. Those who helped pushed prices up so much are now fighting for quite the opposite. Another article recently by the ESPC says they expect average prices to drop 'well below' 200k by the end of the year. So taking away the 'freak' distorted average price in July of 245k - we are already down about 14% from peak. About 20% in real terms. All this and it has only just started. Just wait until the realisation hits that lax lending is not coming back anytime soon. Jobs start to be lost left right and centre. All those who are just 'renting it out instead' realising the longer they leave it the less they will get. Unless they plan on being a landlord for 10 years... 50% nominal falls are quite possible IMO. This will only take prices back to reasonable levels in the long term. Just think - 50% off and Edinburgh prices still won't even be cheap compared to the long term average. Just shows you how ridiculous and overinflated prices had become. At least it's over now. About time !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsmak Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Shame CC is banned as its now a year since his predictions were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Shame CC is banned as its now a year since his predictions were made. I wondered where CC had gone. How long is he banned for? I miss his posts. There is someone on the Evening News site called CCC who posts on all things fianacial, i wonder if that is our friend CC. Mods can we have him back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Shame CC is banned as its now a year since his predictions were made. Try joining houspricecrash forum to continue this debate with CCC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 I wondered where CC had gone. How long is he banned for? I miss his posts. There is someone on the Evening News site called CCC who posts on all things fianacial, i wonder if that is our friend CC. Mods can we have him back YIP thats him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Try joining houspricecrash forum to continue this debate with CCC. Yep he has found some friends http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=108996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Yep he has found some friends http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=108996 Click on forums, then regional house prices, then Scotland, look for CCC He has been very busy, lots of back slapping going on etc etc about how he got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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