Estate Agents! Advice....

[Peebo]

Fair enough. I wouldn't trust most of these people though !! They do not say negative things about the market lightly however. That is why I trust what I have been told. I imagine these sort of realistic EA's are in a sever minority !!

 

You mean you trust the ones who back up what you think? The people I am talking about have absolutely no reason to talk up the area the work in to me. I am not claiming they are representative - for example, I don't know any estate agents (I assume that is what EA stands for?)

 

You have said over and over that I am talking nonsense with my predictions !!

 

No, I haven't. I have commented on many things that you have posted that I have believed to be nonsense. I don't have any issue with your general predictions or opinion - each to their own.

 

Anyway out of interest what are your thoughts on the potential of 30% plus real falls in Edinburgh ?

 

Do you mean do I think that average prices in Edinburgh will fall 30% from the level the currently at over a certain period? I find it hard to imagine, but you never know. If the value of my flat falls by 30% of the value I would currently place on it (based on a recent valuation and the recent sale prices of two near identical flats in the development) over the, say, next five years, then I will be very, very surprised. I would also still be in tens of thousands of pounds of profit from my very limited exposure to the property game.

[coppercrutch]

You mean you trust the ones who back up what you think? The people I am talking about have absolutely no reason to talk up the area the work in to me. I am not claiming they are representative - for example, I don't know any estate agents (I assume that is what EA stands for?)

 

 

 

No, I haven't. I have commented on many things that you have posted that I have believed to be nonsense. I don't have any issue with your general predictions or opinion - each to their own.

 

 

 

Do you mean do I think that average prices in Edinburgh will fall 30% from the level the currently at over a certain period? I find it hard to imagine, but you never know. If the value of my flat falls by 30% of the value I would currently place on it (based on a recent valuation and the recent sale prices of two near identical flats in the development) over the, say, next five years, then I will be very, very surprised. I would also still be in tens of thousands of pounds of profit from my very limited exposure to the property game.

 

I trust the ones that tell me things that are in direct contrast to how much earnings they are likely to make. I think you can safely say they can be trusted a little more...

 

Can I ask why you would be very surprised if your flat falls 30% in the next few years ? It has risen that amount in the same time. Why can't it fall the same amount in the same time. I just dont get people's logic. Makes zero sense to me.

 

And as for your words in bold above you are getting sucked in by the brainwashing like everyone else. You have only made a 'profit' if you sell your house nad use the money for something else. Until you do that your 'profit' means very little.

 

Also I presume you have a mortgage for your flat ? You will then realise that you are going to end up paying about 100% more than you paid for your home by the time you have paid of your mortgage..

 

I imagine your 'profit' so far has probably been eaten up by interest. But I suppose you will have worked that out as well.

 

I just wish people would wake up to the brainwashing !!! Having a house worth more than you paid for it for most people means very little. It is not 'profit'. Lower house prices are a good thing for the vast majority.

 

It is just such an obvious simple thing but people find it SO hard to understand. I still find that baffling.

[Peebo]

I trust the ones that tell me things that are in direct contrast to how much earnings they are likely to make. I think you can safely say they can be trusted a little more...

 

Can I ask why you would be very surprised if your flat falls 30% in the next few years ? It has risen that amount in the same time. Why can't it fall the same amount in the same time. I just dont get people's logic. Makes zero sense to me.

 

Why would I be surprised? Main reason is that the demand for the type of property I have will not change that significantly, I think - mainly because I don't see the structure of Edinburgh's economy changing that significantly.

 

Of course it's value could fall. As I have asked you before, can you please outline the reasons why you think it is likely it will?

 

And as for your words in bold above you are getting sucked in by the brainwashing like everyone else. You have only made a 'profit' if you sell your house nad use the money for something else. Until you do that your 'profit' means very little.

 

I haven't been brainwashed, and your attempts at condescension are pathetic. First of all, the whole premise of this prediction is the fall in value, and thus clearly I would have to sell it for the hypothetical value to be realised. Secondly, what I use the money for is an irrelevance - I am talking about the sale of one thing. Whether or not I use that to fund the purchase of another property is neither here nor there in terms of this particular property.

 

Also I presume you have a mortgage for your flat ? You will then realise that you are going to end up paying about 100% more than you paid for your home by the time you have paid of your mortgage..

 

I imagine your 'profit' so far has probably been eaten up by interest. But I suppose you will have worked that out as well.

 

Yeah, the problem with debt is that you have to pay for it. However, debt also allows you to invest in things that lead to your personal economic growth - that is one of the key drivers of a capitalist economy.

 

You are right, I've paid thousands of pounds in interest since purchasing my flat. The alternative that many people face is having to pay rent instead - we all have to live somewhere. Given the choice, I am very pleased to have paid interest on the money require to become an "owner-occupier" rather than paying rent. Each to their own, though.

 

I just wish people would wake up to the brainwashing !!! Having a house worth more than you paid for it for most people means very little. It is not 'profit'. Lower house prices are a good thing for the vast majority.

 

It is just such an obvious simple thing but people find it SO hard to understand. I still find that baffling.

 

What I take here is that you bascially suggest that as prices for the seller fall, so do they also fall for the buyer; thus the "profit" is false. I agree to an extent, and it could lead me to ask this; what is the big deal in the first place about prices falling?

[coppercrutch]

Of course it's value could fall. As I have asked you before, can you please outline the reasons why you think it is likely it will?

 

 

What I take here is that you bascially suggest that as prices for the seller fall, so do they also fall for the buyer; thus the "profit" is false. I agree to an extent, and it could lead me to ask this; what is the big deal in the first place about prices falling?

 

 

I have already answered the first point. Of course there are reasons to think the opposite. Feel free to post them and people can see both sides and make their own minds up. The reasons for prices NOT falling are nowhere near as strong IMO though:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

If the following statements were true I would agree Edinburgh would not be looking at serious falls. However.......

 

Edinburgh does not have a huge reliance on the financial sector.

 

Edinburgh does not have a huge migrant population ready to leave at the drop of a hat.(They rent out a huge amount of the BTL properties, what happens to their flats when they leave....)

 

Edinburgh has not seen a huge building programme of flat after flat on every single spare plot of land.

 

Edinburgh has not seen the same spike and boom in prices that other places have.

 

Edinburgh does not have property that is vastly over-inflated compared to average salaries.

 

Edinburgh has not got the same credit and mortgage system as everywhere else

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

As for your second point what is the big deal about prices falling ?!!

 

At the moment the average person cannot afford to buy the average house. People are paying 200k for something that, without the speculation and mania, would cost them 100k. This is affecting most people in this country at the moment. This huge 'boom' IMO has been one of the worst things to happen to this country ever. . False 'wealth' that is now coming home to roost.

 

Cheaper anything else is great news. Cheaper houses are not outside this logic. People have simply been brainwashed into thinking that house prices shooting up to silly levels is a good thing. That is simply wrong. The fact I have to seriously put effort into telling people this simple fact lets me know how far the brainwashing has gone. I was almost sucked in myself.

 

People are being persuaded into a lifetime of debt that they do not need. That is pretty sad IMO. I am savvy enough to work it out and work against the tide. I will come out of this just fine. A lot of average punters will end up killing themselves over this. Very sad state of affairs. And it all is down to greed. Nothing else. We should all care about this subject. It affects us all.

[Super T]

1. I have a mortgage

2. I don't pay rent (per say)

3. I don't own all of my own home but a very good share of it.

4. I wouldn't have anywhere else to stay if I didnt rent or buy.

 

Why would it be a good thing for me to happily accept the valuation of my house falling by 30% (which it won't) in order for the 'greater good' to get on the property ladder?

Is that not socialism!

 

It's maybe OK for people who are in a situation where they can sit in their folks for the rest of their days while they save and invest their pennies in order to buy a house outright, but for those of us who go out into the real world and experience it for ourselves I aint giving up heehaw.

 

I agree that the rate of growth experienced previously was unsustainable, hence the slowdown, yet to think that we shall see a downturn of up to 50% are really living in cloud cuckoo.

 

If you can't understand why people invest in property look up the Duke of Westminster.

[flecktimus]

PEBO

 

It is true that there are many articles, figures and commentaries out there that support a lot of what you are saying, your selective (and occasionally bizarre) use of the material does your arguments no credit. Your dismissal of certain articles, evidence and views simply because you don't agree with them is quite laughable, at times.

 

You are correct.

 

Coopercrutch gave us a link for the RICS report which out of courtesy i read.

 

As he is claiming a 30%-50% drop in the Edinburgh market i obviously went to Edinburgh market report which wasn't to discouraging,but unfortunately according to Mr Coopercrutch these RICS surveyors are not of very High standing and are telling us lies.

 

But the good news about the RICS report was that all the other RICS surveyors where telling the truth(the ones that have market drops).

[Coco]

1. I have a mortgage

2. I don't pay rent (per say)

3. I don't own all of my own home but a very good share of it.

4. I wouldn't have anywhere else to stay if I didnt rent or buy.

 

Why would it be a good thing for me to happily accept the valuation of my house falling by 30% (which it won't) in order for the 'greater good' to get on the property ladder?

Is that not socialism!

 

It's maybe OK for people who are in a situation where they can sit in their folks for the rest of their days while they save and invest their pennies in order to buy a house outright, but for those of us who go out into the real world and experience it for ourselves I aint giving up heehaw.

 

I agree that the rate of growth experienced previously was unsustainable, hence the slowdown, yet to think that we shall see a downturn of up to 50% are really living in cloud cuckoo.

 

If you can't understand why people invest in property look up the Duke of Westminster.

 

You are right. If property prices fall significantly then it will be very hard on people who have taken on big debts in recent years.

 

That said, just because people do not want prices to fall it does not mean that they will not fall. A debt/deflation spiral looks possible.

 

The trouble is the asset price inflation has distorted the true price signals in the economy, just as they do in all bubbles. Both inflation and deflation distort the signals. Have the true 'costs' of housing really gone up by 200%plus in the last few years - of course not. If house prices fall by 50% will the true 'costs' of housing have fallen by 50%? Probably not.

 

Over time it is not possible for the price of housing to rise by so much more than economic growth - if it was then it wouldn't take too many years for housing to be worth more than the entire economy.

[coppercrutch]

1. I have a mortgage

2. I don't pay rent (per say)

3. I don't own all of my own home but a very good share of it.

4. I wouldn't have anywhere else to stay if I didnt rent or buy.

 

Why would it be a good thing for me to happily accept the valuation of my house falling by 30% (which it won't) in order for the 'greater good' to get on the property ladder?

Is that not socialism!

 

It's maybe OK for people who are in a situation where they can sit in their folks for the rest of their days while they save and invest their pennies in order to buy a house outright, but for those of us who go out into the real world and experience it for ourselves I aint giving up heehaw.

 

I agree that the rate of growth experienced previously was unsustainable, hence the slowdown, yet to think that we shall see a downturn of up to 50% are really living in cloud cuckoo.

If you can't understand why people invest in property look up the Duke of Westminster.

 

Please think about this !! You decided to buy your place. No-one forced you to do it. You bought it at a time they were overpriced. They are more than likely to come down significantly.

 

Simple question ? Do you ever want to move into a bigger/ nicer place ?

 

If you do then you would be DELIGHTED if property prices come down to a reasonable level. You probably haven't even thought of this before. Most people have not. They are just brainwashed.

 

It has nothing do with with you giving up 'hee-haw'. You have no choice in the matter.

 

As for cuckoo land why don't you ask Dr Who for his time machine. Go back 10 years and tell people that prices are going to rise 200% and a one bed poky flat in Gorgie will cost you 130k....

 

You know what those people would tell you ? They would tell you that you are "really living in cloud cuckoo."

 

Amazing how people can accept 200% rises as quite normal, and in the same breath state that a fall of 50% is out of the question. NO LOGIC CAN BACK UP YOUR ARGUMENT. END OF STORY.

[coppercrutch]

You are right. If property prices fall significantly then it will be very hard on people who have taken on big debts in recent years.

 

That said, just because people do not want prices to fall it does not mean that they will not fall. A debt/deflation spiral looks possible.

 

The trouble is the asset price inflation has distorted the true price signals in the economy, just as they do in all bubbles. Both inflation and deflation distort the signals. Have the true 'costs' of housing really gone up by 200%plus in the last few years - of course not. If house prices fall by 50% will the true 'costs' of housing have fallen by 50%? Probably not.

 

Over time it is not possible for the price of housing to rise by so much more than economic growth - if it was then it wouldn't take too many years for housing to be worth more than the entire economy.

 

 

Nope. We both know the stupid rise in prices has been down to mainly speculation. You only have to look at rents in Edinburgh to have this proven. Rents are truly down to supply and demand. They have remained pretty flat over the past 10 years. If there was no speculation in the housing market it would have done the same.

 

Average house prices will return to 3-4 times average income. How this happens is the only question.

 

This countrie's population are slaves to debt. And most are happy with it. That really staggers me.

[coppercrutch]

You are correct.

 

Coopercrutch gave us a link for the RICS report which out of courtesy i read.

 

As he is claiming a 30%-50% drop in the Edinburgh market i obviously went to Edinburgh market report which wasn't to discouraging,but unfortunately according to Mr Coopercrutch these RICS surveyors are not of very High standing and are telling us lies.

 

But the good news about the RICS report was that all the other RICS surveyors where telling the truth(the ones that have market drops).

 

I picked out the surveyor who is in cahoots with Retties. I would not trust a single thing they said for VERY GOOD REASONS. The details are available on this thread if you require a reminder.

 

You have the land registry saying Edinburgh is down 5.8% (BBC website)

 

You have ESPC saying Edinburgh is up 2%

 

You have Lloyds TSB saying Edinburgh is up 12% !!!

 

It will take a while for all these figures to converge. Same happened in England. Took a fair while for them all to say prices are falling. ESPC in July will be the start. Followed by Land Registry a few months later.

 

ESPC - 9411 properties for sale or to rent.

 

Nah its all just fine .

 

9411 people will just turn up in the next month and buy them all before it quitens down again in August. Nothing to worry about here. Move along move along.....

 

This is the BUSY time of year. So whilst the number for sale will rise, SO SHOULD THE NUMBER THAT GET SOLD !!! That is unless houses are just not selling.

 

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPages/HomePage.aspx

[Coco]

Nope. We both know the stupid rise in prices has been down to mainly speculation. You only have to look at rents in Edinburgh to have this proven. Rents are truly down to supply and demand. They have remained pretty flat over the past 10 years. If there was no speculation in the housing market it would have done the same.

 

Average house prices will return to 3-4 times average income. How this happens is the only question.

 

This countrie's population are slaves to debt. And most are happy with it. That really staggers me.

 

Taking on more and more debt is fine if the expected price rise on the asset you buy with it greater than the borrowing cost ... it is when the expected price situation changes to expected falls and links with higher borrowing costs (or actually the chance to borrow disappears as the banks ration credit) that causes a problem.

[coppercrutch]

Taking on more and more debt is fine if the expected price rise on the asset you buy with it greater than the borrowing cost ... it is when the expected price situation changes to expected falls and links with higher borrowing costs (or actually the chance to borrow disappears as the banks ration credit) that causes a problem.

 

And all of that is happening just now.

 

The simple reason people can pay this silly money for houses is due to mortgages. Nothing else. So it does astound me why people think prices will stay at the same level even if mortgages disappear ?!

 

Why do people not get this ? Do you have any idea ?!!

 

A chump who wanted to buy a 150k 'apartment' with no deposit last year could have got one.

 

A chump who wants to buy a 150k 'apartment' with no deposit this year will not.

 

But prices will remain the same? Staggering naiviety IMO.

[flecktimus]

And all of that is happening just now.

 

The simple reason people can pay this silly money for houses is due to mortgages. Nothing else. So it does astound me why people think prices will stay at the same level even if mortgages disappear ?!

 

Why do people not get this ? Do you have any idea ?!!

 

A chump who wanted to buy a 150k 'apartment' with no deposit last year could have got one.

 

A chump who wants to buy a 150k 'apartment' with no deposit this year will not.

 

But prices will remain the same? Staggering naiviety IMO.

 

Naivety. Thats rich coming from someone who says prices are going to drop 50%.

 

Chump: I am sure there are a few people on this site you are calling chump, i think you should be more careful with your choice of words.Banter is banter,but that is abuse.

[coppercrutch]

Naivety. Thats rich coming from someone who says prices are going to drop 50%.

 

Chump: I am sure there are a few people on this site you are calling chump, i think you should be more careful with your choice of words.Banter is banter,but that is abuse.

 

Calm down !! Chump is not a bad word !! It is a word I use to describe someone that doesn't think things through. And I was using it to describe someone who would buy an overpriced flat without a deposit.

 

What would you describe someone who buys an overpriced flat without a deposit ? Genius, ahead of their time ? I think 'chump' is quite a pleasant way to describe someone like that.

 

As for naivety that is your opinion. However I have been 'prattling' on about these things for ages. People are now starting to wonder if what I am saying may actually come true, as there are many, many signs out there now to support my view. I would not describe that as someone who is being 'naive'. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

PS - 30-50% real falls was my prediction. I would bet my house on it. Woops just realised I dont have one - so it doesn't really matter

[coppercrutch]

Another article. For those moaning that I only point out articles to support my view feel free to do the opposite.

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article3944831.ece

 

Those who build houses = GOOSED.

Those who sell houses = GOOSED.

Those who advertise houses for sale = GOOSED.

Those who lend money for people to buy houses = GOOSED.

 

Housing market in Edinburgh = "Different. It will all be fine here, don't worry"

 

And I am supposed to be the one who is delusionial for my 'crazy' predictions.

 

Yeah, Right then.

[coppercrutch]

And another. This from one of the World's top economists.

 

http://www.cityam.com/index.php?news=13698

 

Have a look at the graph below. The places that have had the biggest booms, and whose average hosues are more out of kilter with reality will be the hardest hit. The UK is near the top of the list. And within the UK our very own Edinburgh is near the top of our own list.

 

 

This is the simple logic behind all of this. When house prices rise out of kilter with reality they ALWAYS come back down again. And the higher they have gone, the harder and further they will fall. All the rest is just noise really, but still interesting.

[coppercrutch]

Today even the Scotsman get in on the act. Story about how Scottish mortgage rates are actually WORSE than in the rest of the UK !!

 

http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Homeowners-face-paying-hundreds-more.4094131.jp

 

They still have an 'expert' saying that prices here are expected to rise !!!

 

As I have said before time and time again DELUSIONAL !!!

 

Edinburgh is goosed. Oh, another nail in the coffin I was told about last night. In December we get the single property survey for Scotland. It means that there will be a pack for every house sold in Scotland that has a VALUATION as part of it. That means the days of silly offers over prices will be gone.

 

Why would you offer a crazy amount when it is printed there in black and white what the house is 'worth' ?

 

Of course that is just the opinion of a surveyor and some people may be prepared to pay more. I reckon we may actually see the Scottish system change to simply fixed prices. It is happening already due to the lack of interest. It may just stick after December and easily become the 'norm'.

 

Good thing. Sealed bid 'wars' are stupid. People think they have made a fortune and are happy. That is until they head off to buy their next house and realise it is a nightmare if you are the one buying !!

 

Another thing. I always look at ESPC for 1 bed flats in Gorgie as a barometer of activity in Edinburgh. Up until last week I cant remember seeing a fixed price of anything less than 125k. The majority were between 125-130k.

 

Now there are 8 IIRC that are at 120k or less. Looks like Gorgie is already falling. Of course you won't have to many papers telling you about this though.

[blairdin]

Edinburgh is goosed. Oh, another nail in the coffin I was told about last night. In December we get the single property survey for Scotland. It means that there will be a pack for every house sold in Scotland that has a VALUATION as part of it. That means the days of silly offers over prices will be gone.

 

Why would you offer a crazy amount when it is printed there in black and white what the house is 'worth' ?

 

Of course that is just the opinion of a surveyor and some people may be prepared to pay more. I reckon we may actually see the Scottish system change to simply fixed prices. It is happening already due to the lack of interest. It may just stick after December and easily become the 'norm'.

 

Good thing. Sealed bid 'wars' are stupid. People think they have made a fortune and are happy. That is until they head off to buy their next house.

 

It's a little off topic, but I think the single survey system will make life harder still for first time buyers trying to get on the property ladder.

 

Rightly or wrongly, most first time buyers will not have a huge deposit and a big mortgage agreed in principle (90% -100% LTV ). The cost of living here is too expensive to enable most first time buyers to save a deposit. With a single survery system, I think it becomes even easier for everyone else to marginally outbid a first time buyer as it will be easier to second guess there price limit.

[Sherlock]

... Oh, another nail in the coffin I was told about last night. In December we get the single property survey for Scotland. It means that there will be a pack for every house sold in Scotland that has a VALUATION as part of it. That means the days of silly offers over prices will be gone...

 

Why do you think this means the days of silly o/o prices are gone?

[coppercrutch]

It's a little off topic, but I think the single survey system will make life harder still for first time buyers trying to get on the property ladder.

 

Rightly or wrongly, most first time buyers will not have a huge deposit and a big mortgage agreed in principle (90% -100% LTV ). The cost of living here is too expensive to enable most first time buyers to save a deposit. With a single survery system, I think it becomes even easier for everyone else to marginally outbid a first time buyer as it will be easier to second guess there price limit.

 

I would agree. This is a good thing however in the long run. The last thing a FTB wants to do in the next few years is buy a place. The property market is a pyramid system. It NEEDS the people at the bottom to survive. If they are removed the whole thing collapses. You can see it happening already.

 

In essence FTB's can go 'on strike' and DEMAND that the market lowers it's prices to a reasonable level. Rent, move back with parents, move into a mates spare room etc... They can't lose.

 

They are in charge right now and just don't realise it. Making I should start an official strike !!!

 

Join me comrades !!!

[coppercrutch]

Why do you think this means the days of silly o/o prices are gone?

 

Because the price in the valuation will essentially become a "Fixed price" ?

 

With offers over you can only guess, based on similar properties, what the seller wants.

 

With this number in black and white it will be a lot clearer.

 

Why put down 'Offers over 200k' when it is clearly stated to every potential buyer that the value is 230k. ??!!

 

People will simply offer based on that number, and not the 'offers over' number. Offers over will, overnight, become pointless.

 

Of course they may want a lot more than it's value. Doesn't mean they will get it though !!

 

Maybe not - I am no expert in this field. Just thinking out loud.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Oh, another nail in the coffin I was told about last night. In December we get the single property survey for Scotland. It means that there will be a pack for every house sold in Scotland that has a VALUATION as part of it. That means the days of silly offers over prices will be gone.

 

Why would you offer a crazy amount when it is printed there in black and white what the house is 'worth' ?

 

Exactly how is getting a black and white valuation from surveyors paid for by the seller any different than getting a black and white valuation from surveyors paid for by yourself.

 

Houses go for silly money above their valuation because of supply and demand curves not because of who pays for the surveyor.

 

I would expect houses sales prices to be nearer the estimate simply because less people are buying so there will be less competition for each house. I would also expect there to be more fixed price properties on the market (which is good for first time buyers).

 

I don't see the point of the chicken licken attitude to house prices, the sky isn't falling. House prices have been massively artificially high for a fair while and people have had ridiculous expectations about what their homes are worth.

[Sherlock]

Because the price in the valuation will essentially become a "Fixed price" ?

 

With offers over you can only guess, based on similar properties, what the seller wants.

 

With this number in black and white it will be a lot clearer.

 

Why put down 'Offers over 200k' when it is clearly stated to every potential buyer that the value is 230k. ??!!

 

People will simply offer based on that number, and not the 'offers over' number. Offers over will, overnight, become pointless.

 

Of course they may want a lot more than it's value. Doesn't mean they will get it though !!

 

Maybe not - I am no expert in this field. Just thinking out loud.

 

I know where you're coming from but it'll make no difference to what went on pre-sellers pack days.

 

It is the purchasers choice not to get a valuation survey done prior to making an offer (e.g. a subject to survey offer). Indeed, a subject to survey offer is only a relatively recent thing (say last 5 years) but prior to that, prospective purchasers knew the value of the subjects but still bid more in order to beat the competition.

 

Post-sellers pack, you are still going to have to offer more to beat the other prospective purchasers regardless of value. Sellers will still offer the subjects at a figure lower than the value to encourage prospective purchasers to view and in turn offer.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Why put down 'Offers over 200k' when it is clearly stated to every potential buyer that the value is 230k. ??!!

 

Because buying a house is basically done by auction, who pays for the survey of the house has nothng to do with how much the house will sell for.

[coppercrutch]

Exactly how is getting a black and white valuation from surveyors paid for by the seller any different than getting a black and white valuation from surveyors paid for by yourself.

 

Houses go for silly money above their valuation because of supply and demand curves not because of who pays for the surveyor.

 

I would expect houses sales prices to be nearer the estimate simply because less people are buying so there will be less competition for each house. I would also expect there to be more fixed price properties on the market (which is good for first time buyers).

 

I don't see the point of the chicken licken attitude to house prices, the sky isn't falling. House prices have been massively artificially high for a fair while and people have had ridiculous expectations about what their homes are worth.

 

Correct me if I am wrong because I am no expert on this:

 

At the moment don't you get a valuation AFTER you put an offer in ?

 

Under this new system you will get a valuation BEFORE you put an offer in ?

 

Wont that make a MASSIVE difference ?

 

PS - As I said if I have got it wrong please let me know !!

[Sherlock]

Correct me if I am wrong because I am no expert on this:

 

At the moment don't you get a valuation AFTER you put an offer in ?

 

Under this new system you will get a valuation BEFORE you put an offer in ?

 

Wont that make a MASSIVE difference ?

 

PS - As I said if I have got it wrong please let me know !!

 

It is your choice NOT to get a valuation survey done prior to making your offer.

 

I, personally, have always had a valuation survey done prior to offering on property rather than offering subject to survey.

[coppercrutch]

I know where you're coming from but it'll make no difference to what went on pre-sellers pack days.

 

It is the purchasers choice not to get a valuation survey done prior to making an offer (e.g. a subject to survey offer). Indeed, a subject to survey offer is only a relatively recent thing (say last 5 years) but prior to that, prospective purchasers knew the value of the subjects but still bid more in order to beat the competition.

 

Post-sellers pack, you are still going to have to offer more to beat the other prospective purchasers regardless of value. Sellers will still offer the subjects at a figure lower than the value to encourage prospective purchasers to view and in turn offer.

 

But isn't that the norm these days ? Everyone I know has gone for a valuation after. I just think this will mean that people actually THINK about the value of a place a little bit more. They will have more information available to them when they put in an offer. In the last 5 years people have simply plucked a number out of thin air. This has been backed up with the fact that any number of stupid lenders were prepared to back them up on this. Now that has all changed.

 

I just think this is another thing that will make people think a little before putting in silly offers on houses. That, IMO, will just add to the decline.

 

A good thing in the long term.

[blairdin]

I would agree. This is a good thing however in the long run. The last thing a FTB wants to do in the next few years is buy a place. The property market is a pyramid system. It NEEDS the people at the bottom to survive. If they are removed the whole thing collapses. You can see it happening already.

 

In essence FTB's can go 'on strike' and DEMAND that the market lowers it's prices to a reasonable level. Rent, move back with parents, move into a mates spare room etc... They can't lose.

 

They are in charge right now and just don't realise it. Making I should start an official strike !!!

 

Join me comrades !!!

 

As you say, that's a very long term vision though.

 

I think as FTB's find it harder still in the short to medium term, the people in charge more and more will be the people who buy to let. They have capital behind them, equity to release and under a single survey system they will be in a position to buy more.

 

The homes they buy will then be rented back to losing FTBs.

 

FTBs will lose - not all have the option of staying with parents, living with a mte, etc.

[coppercrutch]

It is your choice NOT to get a valuation survey done prior to making your offer.

 

I, personally, have always had a valuation survey done prior to offering on property rather than offering subject to survey.

 

Cheers.

 

This now means EVERYONE will have a valuation survey before making an offer.

 

You can't think that is going to make no difference ?!!

 

PS - I know EA's are ****ting themselves about this. From the horses mouth. :rolleyes:That is all I need to know !!!

[Sheriff Fatman]

Correct me if I am wrong because I am no expert on this:

 

At the moment don't you get a valuation AFTER you put an offer in ?

 

Under this new system you will get a valuation BEFORE you put an offer in ?

 

Wont that make a MASSIVE difference ?

 

PS - As I said if I have got it wrong please let me know !!

 

I'm sorry but if you don't get a valuation done before you put a bid in on the most expensive thing you will ever buy in your life, you deserve everything you get.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Cheers.

 

This now means EVERYONE will have a valuation survey before making an offer.

 

You can't think that is going to make no difference ?!!

 

PS - I know EA's are ****ting themselves about this. From the horses mouth. :rolleyes:That is all I need to know !!!

 

I don't know about Estate Agents, but surveyors will be spitting. Instead of every intelligent interested buyer having their own survey done, there will only be one.

[coppercrutch]

As you say, that's a very long term vision though.

 

I think as FTB's find it harder still in the short to medium term, the people in charge more and more will be the people who buy to let. They have capital behind them, equity to release and under a single survey system they will be in a position to buy more.

 

The homes they buy will then be rented back to losing FTBs.

 

FTBs will lose - not all have the option of staying with parents, living with a mte, etc.

 

You may be right. But in the long term it will end up helping FTB's IMO. Simply stand back and if you are a FTB you will be sitting pretty. How long that takes is the only question !!

 

You have to remember at present there are a vast number of BTL's who have very little capital behind them. The rental from a property does not even come close to paying the mortgage.(And they cant just raise it as they wish)

 

BTL at the moment is dead. You big landlords will no doubt be ok. However the market has been skewed by amateurs who have no clue what they are doing. All I can see happening is them flooding the market.

 

The smart 'big boy' Landlords will see what is coming. If they have brains they will sit it out and wait until prices fall to dive in again.

 

A guy in London was on TV last week talking about this very subject. He made 700 million in the last 20 years. Sold his entire assets last year

 

His logic is similar to mine above. I will trust his outlook on the future. Seems to know the score !! Look at Alexanders in Edinburgh. They are doing exactly the same. Selling up everything coz they see what is coming.

 

No doubt these big boys will dive back in for bargains in the future. I bet you behind closed doors they are not even considering this for a good 5 years at least....

[Sherlock]

I'm sorry but if you don't get a valuation done before you put a bid in on the most expensive thing you will ever buy in your life, you deserve everything you get.

 

Couldn't agree more.

[Sherlock]

Cheers.

 

This now means EVERYONE will have a valuation survey before making an offer.

 

You can't think that is going to make no difference ?!!

 

PS - I know EA's are ****ting themselves about this. From the horses mouth. :rolleyes:That is all I need to know !!!

 

Why would an EA be crapping themselves over the sellers pack?

[coppercrutch]

I'm sorry but if you don't get a valuation done before you put a bid in on the most expensive thing you will ever buy in your life, you deserve everything you get.

 

I totally agree. I have spoken to people at work etc.. when they have been buying a house and the ignorance is amazing. For such an important decision !!

 

One bird can't even remember how much she paid for her house less than 6 months ago.

 

This is what has helped the market reach silly highs. People have just sat back on the 'Nothing to lose property will always go up in value' mantra.

 

They have not had to think about things. I believe they are being forced to think a little more now.

 

The only reason I know about this subject is because I was thinking about buying about 18 months ago. As you say I realised it was a massive decision so I decided to really look into it for a few months. I quickly realised what was coming so decided to stay out until the time is right.

 

As each day goes by I think my decision was probably the best of my entire life.

[coppercrutch]

Why would an EA be crapping themselves over the sellers pack?

 

Because of the effect it will have on people's decisions and prices they are willing to pay. I was told this by an EA themself !!

 

EA's get paid on commission. As prices have risen by silly amounts each year their commission % has remained the same. Basically they have had double digit pay rises for the last 5-8 years as a result.

 

If prices come down their income will go down. They have a complete vested interest in prices remaining high. They don't want to go back to the money they SHOULD be earning for what is a pretty simple job afterall.

 

If they think this sellers survey will help push prices down then it pleases me greatly !!! Anything they think is 'bad' for the 'market' is actually just bad for them personally. It is good for the market. It is good for the average punter.

[Coco]

I'm sorry but if you don't get a valuation done before you put a bid in on the most expensive thing you will ever buy in your life, you deserve everything you get.

 

These valuation surveys are meaningless for anything other than satisfying the bank manager though. The surveyor doesn't take on any risk and doesn't do the work involved in a full structural survey.

 

The 'valuation' is basically a look at what similar properties have sold for recently and tempered a bit with what the person wants the survey to say and how the market is. Perhaps if there are any surveyors on here they could disagree.

 

These aren't true valuations 1) based on rebuild cost or 2) based on cash flow from potential rent discounted back. They are just a bit of fluffy nonsense really.

[coppercrutch]

These valuation surveys are meaningless for anything other than satisfying the bank manager though. The surveyor doesn't take on any risk and doesn't do the work involved in a full structural survey.

 

The 'valuation' is basically a look at what similar properties have sold for recently and tempered a bit with what the person wants the survey to say and how the market is. Perhaps if there are any surveyors on here they could disagree.

 

These aren't true valuations 1) based on rebuild cost or 2) based on cash flow from potential rent discounted back. They are just a bit of fluffy nonsense really.

 

Indeed. A house's true value is what someone will pay for it. Nothing else.

 

Still EA's are getting their knickers in a twist over this so it's all good !!!

[Coco]

Indeed. A house's true value is what someone will pay for it. Nothing else.

 

Still EA's are getting their knickers in a twist over this so it's all good !!!

 

No that is the price.

 

The value is what I posted above. Rebuild/land cost or discounted rent flow.

 

What you are getting at in all your many posts on this thread is that prices have become detached from value.

[coppercrutch]

No that is the price.

 

The value is what I posted above. Rebuild/land cost or discounted rent flow.

 

What you are getting at in all your many posts on this thread is that prices have become detached from value.

 

I suppose. But that depends on your definition of the word.

 

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/value

 

2. Monetary or material worth

 

Anyway that is just detail !! I totally agree with your bit in bold above.

 

Anyway new land regisrty figures for Edinburgh out:

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/qp.stm

 

Breakdown for last 5 quarters below.

 

 

2007 (jan-mar) ?167,033

2007 (apr-jun) ?186,955

2007 (jul-sep) ?248,498

2007 (oct-dec) ?230,681

2008 (jan-mar) ?208,195

 

Edinburgh down again. That is both of the last 2 quarters...

 

5.8% in the last. 2.5% in this. Up 7.2% in the last year:confused:

 

Not sure how they get their percentages though. Must have some sort of random weighting like the Llyods TSB. Would be nice if they explained it to us !!!

 

Anyway strange how the media have been very quiet on these numbers..

 

I mean these are the land registry numbers. These are the 'real deal'. No faffing about you might say.

 

The silence from the media is deafening.

 

Their desperation for 'Edinburgh to be different' is really so small minded and ignorant it is embarrassing.

 

Anyone from the 'Prices in Edinburgh won't fall' brigade wish to comment on this....

 

Because you were wrong. They are falling already. As I have said all along.

 

Just another 25% percent to go and we will be there.

[coppercrutch]

Just picked this up from another thread...

 

http://www.forth1.com/Article.asp?id=16202&spid=20470

 

"Around 150 residents had to be evacuated from their homes last night because of a huge fire at a construction site in Edinburgh. The flames took hold of a 6-storey block of flats that were under construction on Pennywell Road just before 11pm"

 

So two huge fires at partially completed new builds in the last few weeks. Prior to this I can't even remember one in the last couple of years ...

 

Co-incidence. Quite possibly.

 

But the timing is rather 'convenient' considering.....

[Super T]

Please think about this !! You decided to buy your place. No-one forced you to do it. You bought it at a time they were overpriced. They are more than likely to come down significantly.

 

Simple question ? Do you ever want to move into a bigger/ nicer place ?

 

If you do then you would be DELIGHTED if property prices come down to a reasonable level. You probably haven't even thought of this before. Most people have not. They are just brainwashed.

 

It has nothing do with with you giving up 'hee-haw'. You have no choice in the matter.

 

As for cuckoo land why don't you ask Dr Who for his time machine. Go back 10 years and tell people that prices are going to rise 200% and a one bed poky flat in Gorgie will cost you 130k....

 

You know what those people would tell you ? They would tell you that you are "really living in cloud cuckoo."

 

Amazing how people can accept 200% rises as quite normal, and in the same breath state that a fall of 50% is out of the question. NO LOGIC CAN BACK UP YOUR ARGUMENT. END OF STORY.

 

 

I never bought my place at an overpriced amount. Neither did I buy my last place at an overpriced amount. Infact I wouldn't be in my bigger/nicer place now had it not been for the Equity that grew in my last place.

 

I don't think anyone accepts that a 200% rise was normal. everybody knew that the market would slow at some point, it was just a matter of when.

[Domokun]

I'm ashamed to have started this pile of steaming horse toley.

 

Honestly, this is up there with the night I proclaimed Charlie Adam to be a football player in terms of how ashamed I am that my moniker is attached to such jizz.

 

(No offence to any posters in particular)

[coppercrutch]

I never bought my place at an overpriced amount. Neither did I buy my last place at an overpriced amount. Infact I wouldn't be in my bigger/nicer place now had it not been for the Equity that grew in my last place.

 

I don't think anyone accepts that a 200% rise was normal. everybody knew that the market would slow at some point, it was just a matter of when.

 

You really believe that ?

 

Your bigger nicer place will have increased MORE in price than your smaller place in the same time period (Unless you moved to a less nice area). The difference between buying the two now will be more than it was 10 years ago. Whatever you have had to borrow you will have to pay more interest on due to the higher price. Just how exactly have you benefited ?

 

If prices were not so stupidly high you would own more of the larger place right now. I am certain of that, even without knowing the details. (Unless you have moved to a less nice area as I said)

 

With higher prices anyone wanting to move to a larger place loses out. Yet another one of the things people have been brainwashed into fogetting about...

 

Anyway you sould like you have bought a house to live in so good luck to you.

[coppercrutch]

Posted on 17 May

 

 

Another thing. I always look at ESPC for 1 bed flats in Gorgie as a barometer of activity in Edinburgh. Up until last week I cant remember seeing a fixed price of anything less than 125k. The majority were between 125-130k.

 

Now there are 8 IIRC that are at 120k or less. Looks like Gorgie is already falling.

 

 

Now there are 13 that are 120k or less....

 

25 that are 125k or less....

 

6 months ago you would be lucky to get 1 that was at fixed price of 125k or under.

 

This just a 'little blip' I suppose...

[coppercrutch]

Quick update in case anyone is interested:

 

GORGIE

 

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

 

17th May:

 

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

 

20th May:

 

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

 

9th Jun:

 

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

 

So in the space of 6 months gone from maybe 2 one bedroom flats available in Gorgie for 125k to less - to 32 now available at 125k or less.

 

You heard it here first. At a rough guess one bed flats in Gorgie have already fallen by about 7% in nominal terms and 11% in real terms.

 

And this is before the vast majority are even aware. This is before the economy takes a serious tanking. This before a huge number of Polish decide they have had enough and head back home. This before the real effects of the credit crunch start to bite for the average person.

 

30-50% real falls in Edinburgh house prices..........at least. That outlook still 'delusional' and 'pie in the sky'.............................

 

* Don't have figures for this time. Just have to trust me on this one.

[Tom Heaney]

Quick update in case anyone is interested:

 

GORGIE

 

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

 

17th May:

 

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

 

20th May:

 

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

 

9th Jun:

 

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

 

So in the space of 6 months gone from maybe 2 one bedroom flats available in Gorgie for 125k to less - to 32 now available at 125k or less.

 

You heard it here first. At a rough guess one bed flats in Gorgie have already fallen by about 7% in nominal terms and 11% in real terms.

 

And this is before the vast majority are even aware. This is before the economy takes a serious tanking. This before a huge number of Polish decide they have had enough and head back home. This before the real effects of the credit crunch start to bite for the average person.

 

30-50% real falls in Edinburgh house prices..........at least. That outlook still 'delusional' and 'pie in the sky'.............................

 

* Don't have figures for this time. Just have to trust me on this one.

 

CC, as the OP has suggested this thread is done and has ran its course. So with that in mind Go Shuv Yer Heid In A Can Oh Worms

[coppercrutch]

CC, as the OP has suggested this thread is done and has ran its course. So with that in mind Go Shuv Yer Heid In A Can Oh Worms.

 

I think quite the opposite. This thread is an amazing example of how the mass population can be brainwashed into thinking something ridiculous is true.

 

Being in the US at present I would think you would understand that.

[Tom Heaney]

I think quite the opposite. This thread is an amazing example of how the mass population can be brainwashed into thinking something ridiculous is true.

 

Being in the US at present I would think you would understand that.

 

I just hope none of them have been brainwashed by you, that would be a real pity

 

But I know you still love me. Mind and get saving up for that pint you want to buy me:eek:

[coppercrutch]

I just hope none of them have been brainwashed by you, that would be a real pity

 

But I know you still love me. Mind and get saving up for that pint you want to buy me:eek:

 

You bevvied !!!

 

And no brainwashing by me. Just offering the other side of the story.

 

Although I am a little peeved the media seem to want to tag along on my bandwagon now.

 

Where were they last year !!