Estate Agents! Advice....

[davemclaren]

Its Craiglockhart for me.

 

Speak to you next time I'm in the Centre Court then....

[coppercrutch]

That is all I have ever looked at property as.

 

Fair do's.

 

It is the rest of the property obsessed that need a wake up call however !!

 

Some good news below for mortgage holders. HSBC are going to match the rate for existing mortgage holders as part of a 2 new fixed rate.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hsbc-bucks-trend-on-mortgage-deals-806454.html

 

This however is only open for 5 weeks. They can pick and choose who they want to lend to. The maximum LTV is 80% (Looks like they are playing safe with a 20% fall predicted) and there will be a fairly meaty 'arrangement' fee.

 

So good news for some of those coming to the end of a fixed deal. But I imagine only if they have an excellent credit rating and some serious equity. However most people who have bought in the last few years will not be helped by this.

[coppercrutch]

Interesting and pretty fair article below. He even goes into what 'Real' price falls are in regards to inflation etc... Better late than never I suppose....

 

You have to ask yourself why these people were not coming out with these stories last year. Simple fact is people have been brainwashed in this country. The press and TV have been at the forefront. This has now changed. They will now start telling people how great it is that prices are dropping because FTB's may finally in a few years be able to afford a nice home.

 

Shame these 'economic experts' couldn't (Or were not allowed;)) to state these facts ages ago like some of us....

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-its-back-to-the-world-of-proper-saving-and-borrowing-for-homes-ndash-and-the-better-for-it-806282.html

[Therapist]

They can pick and choose who they want to lend to.

 

That's what lenders should have done in the first place.

[neobis]

Speak to you next time I'm in the Centre Court then....

 

Feel free, I am rarely in there though as its a bit of a dive (although the lease is up so someone might improve it). I prefer the Park Bar.

[coppercrutch]

That's what lenders should have done in the first place.

 

Indeed. Would have avoided all this nonsense. It is all down to greed. Everyone gets a little greedy sometimes. Nothing wrong with that.

 

But when everyone gets greedy for the same thing ? Only one possible outcome.....POP.

[Therapist]

Indeed. Would have avoided all this nonsense. It is all down to greed. Everyone gets a little greedy sometimes. Nothing wrong with that.

 

But when everyone gets greedy for the same thing ? Only one possible outcome.....POP.

 

I'd agree the main motivation is greed. But it's made easier to be greedy because the financial engineers are creating new products at such a speed that control and risk systems just cannot keep up. For those of you that are bored of the mortgage-related story, I am sure there will be something similar along in a year or two....

[Boaby Ewing]

I'd agree the main motivation is greed. But it's made easier to be greedy because the financial engineers are creating new products at such a speed that control and risk systems just cannot keep up. For those of you that are bored of the mortgage-related story, I am sure there will be something similar along in a year or two....

 

If credit-default swaps ever make it onto KB then you'll know the game's up...

[coppercrutch]

If credit-default swaps ever make it onto KB then you'll know the game's up...

 

Aye these things are complicated !!

 

On a similar vein the below article is intersting. IMF thinks the 'credit crunch' losses could top $1 Trillion dollars Worldwide !!

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7336744.stm

 

Last time I heard a number like that was in Austin Powers and they were taking the mick. Shows you just how scary this whole situation is.

 

And as Therapist says all this time the idiots who thought up these hair brained schemes of 'never ending risk free money making' just take a back seat. Sulk off to the Caymens with ?20 or ?30 million in their back pocket.

 

I am all for a capitalist economy and people being rewarded for making money. But when it gets to the situation like this where people have 'made' (Insert created) billions at the expense of pension holders etc.. ? They should be jailed IMO. Some of their activity could surely come within the realms of fraud or mis-selling ?

 

I imagine it possibly does, but seeing as all the Western Governments are best buddies with these people it will never happen.

 

Just look where Tony Blair went after he left #10. A cushy part time job for JP Morgan earning ?2.5 million per year for attending the odd meeting.

 

No conflict of interest there......

[coppercrutch]

Ok people here we have it.

 

Figures from ESPC out now.

 

OVERVIEW:

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=393

 

DETAILS:

 

Figures for the last 4 quarters:

 

228

222

215

210

 

And they still describe it as 'growth' and 'rising'.

 

If you don't believe all the ESPC/EN/SCOTSMAN stories are nonsense have a look at this.

 

Jan 2008

 

Chief Exec of ESPC - A property 'Expert'.

 

"We expect to see average growth in prices across East Central Scotland of between 3 and 5% over the coming 12 months.?

 

Apr 2008

 

"A rise of just 1.2% took the average price in the Capital"

 

"As expected, we are now seeing growth in the Capital fall to considerably lower levels than those witnessed in previous years"

 

"As expected" ,"as expected" !!!! The guy is talking nonsense. The proof is there in black and white. He stated in January between "3-5% growth". And now in April he 'expected' the figures we have seen !! WRONG Mr Smith !!!

 

People will only believe your nonsense for so long Mr Smith. Get real.

 

And by the way if I had recently bought a house in Kirkcaldy I would be a little worried. Sale prices there down over 23% compared to this time last year

 

As I have stated over and over again Edinburgh's house prices will show a nominal fall for the first time ever (Since these reports began 25 years ago) in August 2008. I am 95% confident of that. I know the ESPC are full of nonsense but lying about the figures I would imagine is even pushing it for them. The Registrars figures out 3 months later would make that a very stupid thing to do.

 

Anyone who has argued with me on this thread willing to admit defeat yet in regards to Edinburghs house prices falling ? Or do you have to wait for the inevitable in August to do that..

 

[Sherlock]

......Anyone who has argued with me on this thread willing to admit defeat yet in regards to Edinburghs house prices falling ? Or do you have to wait for the inevitable in August to do that...

 

Anyone who has said that there will be a property crash and carnage willing to admit defeat yet (as it's not happened yet).

[coppercrutch]

Anyone who has said that there will be a property crash and carnage willing to admit defeat yet (as it's not happened yet).

 

Eh I think this will take a while to happen....

 

It's not going to be overnight !!

 

Although come August we may be seeing falls in Edinburgh of close to 10%

 

Think of everyone you know. Friends,family and work colleagues. What do they think of property in Edinburgh ? How will they react when they are given a shock like that.....

 

I predict there may be a slight rise in the next 3 months. Maybe up to 212k or something. Then in the ESPC report they will decide to change their entire reporting of 'Year on Year' to 'quarter on quarter' - as they can say prices are still rising. It would be pathetic, but I would not be surprised.

 

If prices fall below 210 in the next 3 months then yes, it will be carnage. Have a look down the New Town just now. Lots of flats & houses for sale in Edinburgh's most desirable area. Most are selling, but they are sitting their for months and months. Most are ending up at fixed price as well. That should be a warning sign to everyone....

[Sherlock]

.... It's not going to be overnight...

 

If indeed the carnage actually happens.

[coppercrutch]

If indeed the carnage actually happens.

 

Of course. I have always stated I may be wrong. No-one can predict the future, but you can give it a good go based on basic logic.

 

But come on admit it. My 'ridiculous' claims are getting a little bit 'less' ridiculous by the day - wouldn't you say

[Peebo]

Ok people here we have it.

 

Figures from ESPC out now.

 

OVERVIEW:

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=393

 

DETAILS:

 

Figures for the last 4 quarters:

 

228

222

215

210

 

And they still describe it as 'growth' and 'rising'.

 

If you don't believe all the ESPC/EN/SCOTSMAN stories are nonsense have a look at this.

 

Jan 2008

 

Chief Exec of ESPC - A property 'Expert'.

 

"We expect to see average growth in prices across East Central Scotland of between 3 and 5% over the coming 12 months.?

 

Apr 2008

 

"A rise of just 1.2% took the average price in the Capital"

 

"As expected, we are now seeing growth in the Capital fall to considerably lower levels than those witnessed in previous years"

 

"As expected" ,"as expected" !!!! The guy is talking nonsense. The proof is there in black and white. He stated in January between "3-5% growth". And now in April he 'expected' the figures we have seen !! WRONG Mr Smith !!!

 

I realise you were probably typing rather excitedly, but would you not have been better posting the link to the press release accompanying the latest results?

 

As for analysing the success of his predictions, surely you have to actually wait until the statistics prove whether he was right or not?

 

What is it exactly that he is talking nonsense about?

 

As I have stated over and over again Edinburgh's house prices will show a nominal fall for the first time ever (Since these reports began 25 years ago) in August 2008. I am 95% confident of that. I know the ESPC are full of nonsense but lying about the figures I would imagine is even pushing it for them. The Registrars figures out 3 months later would make that a very stupid thing to do.

 

Anyone who has argued with me on this thread willing to admit defeat yet in regards to Edinburghs house prices falling ? Or do you have to wait for the inevitable in August to do that..

 

 

Like it or not, the figures still show nominal growth between the comparable quarters in 2007 and 2008.

 

I recall you making a prediction about anyone who has bought a house in Edinburgh in the last X years losing money on it - forgive me, as I can't remember the exact details. Can you recall what it was you said? If so, you ready to take me up on a bet?

[coppercrutch]

I realise you were probably typing rather excitedly, but would you not have been better posting the link to the press release accompanying the latest results?

 

As for analysing the success of his predictions, surely you have to actually wait until the statistics prove whether he was right or not?

 

What is it exactly that he is talking nonsense about?

 

 

 

Like it or not, the figures still show nominal growth between the comparable quarters in 2007 and 2008.

 

I recall you making a prediction about anyone who has bought a house in Edinburgh in the last X years losing money on it - forgive me, as I can't remember the exact details. Can you recall what it was you said? If so, you ready to take me up on a bet?

 

He is an 'expert'. He said in January he predicted 3-5% growth. 3 Months later the figures show ~1.5% growth. He then states he 'expected this'.

 

Do I have to explain it to you again. Not difficult.

 

And why don't you just go back and tell me what I said ? I can't be bothered looking. You are scraping the barrel because pretty much most of what I have been saying is getting closer and closer, and you know it. Nice of you to start mentioning 'bets' AFTER the clear predictions I have made. Why didn't you make a bet when I said Edinburgh house prices would fall - WHICH THEY ARE DOING RIGHT NOW - FACT.

 

Game over Peebo. You have tried but your 'senior executives' or whoever it is you deal with have zero clue. They have been shown up by some random punter on a football forum. Even those on this thread who do not like what I say will agree with that.

 

I am feeling very good these last few days. The tide has turned. Nothing will stop it. The Government may come out with some hairbrained schemes to delay it but it will happen. The bigger the delays the bigger the bust. Simple simple logic.

 

 

Edit - Woops mixed you up with someone else when it came to that comment in italics !! My apologies, the rest is all good though.

[Chip Douglas]

Ok people here we have it.

 

Figures from ESPC out now.

 

OVERVIEW:

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=393

 

DETAILS:

 

Figures for the last 4 quarters:

 

228

222

215

210

 

And they still describe it as 'growth' and 'rising'.

 

If you don't believe all the ESPC/EN/SCOTSMAN stories are nonsense have a look at this.

 

Jan 2008

 

Chief Exec of ESPC - A property 'Expert'.

 

"We expect to see average growth in prices across East Central Scotland of between 3 and 5% over the coming 12 months.?

 

Apr 2008

 

"A rise of just 1.2% took the average price in the Capital"

 

"As expected, we are now seeing growth in the Capital fall to considerably lower levels than those witnessed in previous years"

 

"As expected" ,"as expected" !!!! The guy is talking nonsense. The proof is there in black and white. He stated in January between "3-5% growth". And now in April he 'expected' the figures we have seen !! WRONG Mr Smith !!!

 

People will only believe your nonsense for so long Mr Smith. Get real.

 

And by the way if I had recently bought a house in Kirkcaldy I would be a little worried. Sale prices there down over 23% compared to this time last year

 

As I have stated over and over again Edinburgh's house prices will show a nominal fall for the first time ever (Since these reports began 25 years ago) in August 2008. I am 95% confident of that. I know the ESPC are full of nonsense but lying about the figures I would imagine is even pushing it for them. The Registrars figures out 3 months later would make that a very stupid thing to do.

 

Anyone who has argued with me on this thread willing to admit defeat yet in regards to Edinburghs house prices falling ? Or do you have to wait for the inevitable in August to do that..

 

 

There's nothing contradictory in what the Chief Exec has said between January and April. You need to take a step back and look at this with a degree of neutrality!

 

Traditionally, the first 3 months of the year are slow, things pick up until the summer, then there is a substantial flurry of activity in the last quarter or so.

 

The last quarter of the year will be the acid test in my view. I still think we'll see a nominal increase in value over the piece in the region, it's not going to be what we have become accustomed to. But in many ways, I'm glad that the over inflated price pattern we have seen for many years is now at an end.

[Chip Douglas]

He is an 'expert'. He said in January he predicted 3-5% growth. 3 Months later the figures show ~1.5% growth. He then states he 'expected this'.

 

Do I have to explain it to you again. Not difficult.

 

And why don't you just go back and tell me what I said ? I can't be bothered looking. You are scraping the barrel because pretty much most of what I have been saying is getting closer and closer, and you know it. Nice of you to start mentioning 'bets' AFTER the clear predictions I have made. Why didn't you make a bet when I said Edinburgh house prices would fall - WHICH THEY ARE DOING RIGHT NOW - FACT.

 

Game over Peebo. You have tried but your 'senior executives' or whoever it is you deal with have zero clue. They have been shown up by some random punter on a football forum. Even those on this thread who do not like what I say will agree with that.

 

I am feeling very good these last few days. The tide has turned. Nothing will stop it. The Government may come out with some hairbrained schemes to delay it but it will happen. The bigger the delays the bigger the bust. Simple simple logic.

 

 

Come on CC, you can expect a 1.5% growth in 3 months whilst expecting an overall 3-5% increase over a longer period.

 

The problem with you now is that you're not looking at things with an objective eye.

[Peebo]

He is an 'expert'. He said in January he predicted 3-5% growth. 3 Months later the figures show ~1.5% growth. He then states he 'expected this'.

 

Do I have to explain it to you again. Not difficult.

 

 

You don't have to explain it, as I understand the artistic license you are using. The prediction he made cannot be judged until the timescale it refers to has passed. He may well be proved wrong, but has not been. Yet

 

And why don't you just go back and tell me what I said ? I can't be bothered looking. You are scraping the barrel because pretty much most of what I have been saying is getting closer and closer, and you know it. Nice of you to start mentioning 'bets' AFTER the clear predictions I have made. Why didn't you make a bet when I said Edinburgh house prices would fall - WHICH THEY ARE DOING RIGHT NOW - FACT.

 

Nah, I was just interested in one particular Nostradamus-esque forecast you made, which I offered you the opportunity to put your money where your mouth was. You declined. Fair dues. As I say, I can't remember exactly what you'd said, but thought you might have filed it away somewhere for quick reference. Obviously not, fair dues.

 

 

Game over Peebo. You have tried but your 'senior executives' or whoever it is you deal with have zero clue. They have been shown up by some random punter on a football forum. Even those on this thread who do not like what I say will agree with that.

 

Game over? "Senior executives" I deal with? Shown up on a football forum?

 

What you on about? What do you think it is that you think people would be agreeing with?

[coppercrutch]

Come on CC, you can expect a 1.5% growth in 3 months whilst expecting an overall 3-5% increase over a longer period.

 

The problem with you now is that you're not looking at things with an objective eye.

 

There's nothing contradictory in what the Chief Exec has said between January and April. You need to take a step back and look at this with a degree of neutrality!

 

Traditionally, the first 3 months of the year are slow, things pick up until the summer, then there is a substantial flurry of activity in the last quarter or so.

 

Come on guys look at the figures !! I am the only one looking at these completely objectively.

 

Last 3 months prices are down from 215 - 210. THAT IS A FALL !!

 

As I have stated numerous times the next results will be compared to 228k. This will show a YOY fall of between 5-10 % !!!!

 

It is falling. THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'. Have you been so completely brainwashed you cannot see this ?

 

I repeat:

 

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

 

You get it yet ?

 

228

222

215

210

 

DOES NOT EQUAL GROWTH BY ANY MEANS !!

 

Come on you are both clearly smart guys this is getting a little embarrassing.

 

 

OPEN YOUR EYES !!!!

 

Simple question for you. You are a sales manager. The above figures are from one of your salesmen. Do you take him aside and thank him for his recent 'growth' in sales.....

 

Thought not.

[coppercrutch]

Can someone please help me out with the tag team of Peebo and Chip ? Anyone....

 

Can someone please point out the simple facts above. Help, these people need help.

 

Brainwashed to the extreme. Very sad.

[Peebo]

Come on guys look at the figures !! I am the only one looking at these completely objectively.

 

Last 3 months prices are down from 215 - 210. THAT IS A FALL !!

 

As I have stated numerous times the next results will be compared to 228k. This will show a YOY fall of between 5-10 % !!!!

 

It is falling. THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'. Have you been so completely brainwashed you cannot see this ?

 

I repeat:

 

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

THERE IS NO 'GROWTH'.

 

You get it yet ?

 

228

222

215

210

 

DOES NOT EQUAL GROWTH BY ANY MEANS !!

 

Come on you are both clearly smart guys this is getting a little embarrassing.

 

 

OPEN YOUR EYES !!!!

 

Simple question for you. You are a sales manager. The above figures are from one of your salesmen. Do you take him aside and thank him for his recent 'growth' in sales.....

 

Thought not.

 

The ESPC article compares like-for-like - i.e. the same quarter compared from year to year. While that seems perfectly reasonable to me, one could disagree. Fair enough.

 

The ESPC are not claiming there has been growth from quarter to quarter. Some may consider that to be a more reasonable measure of growth. I'm not so sure, given the seasonal nature of house sales.

[Chip Douglas]

Can someone please help me out with the tag team of Peebo and Chip ? Anyone....

 

Can someone please point out the simple facts above. Help, these people need help.

 

Brainwashed to the extreme. Very sad.

 

I'm pointing out the simple facts for you here, I am not the one coming across as brainwashed.

 

The guy has stated that he expects 3-5% Growth over a 12 MONTH PERIOD.

 

Do you really need this spelt out to you in simpler terms?

 

You don't win football games when you're 2-0 up half time unless you're playing at the CopperCrutch Arena!

[coppercrutch]

I'm pointing out the simple facts for you here, I am not the one coming across as brainwashed.

 

The guy has stated that he expects 3-5% Growth over a 12 MONTH PERIOD.

 

Do you really need this spelt out to you in simpler terms?

 

You don't win football games when you're 2-0 up half time unless you're playing at the CopperCrutch Arena!

 

Well considering the growth of the LAST 12 MONTHS is 1.5% and the next results are likely to show falls of about 5% isn't his prediction a little ridiculous....

[Peebo]

Can someone please help me out with the tag team of Peebo and Chip ? Anyone....

 

Can someone please point out the simple facts above. Help, these people need help.

 

Brainwashed to the extreme. Very sad.

 

Why do you need someone to point out the facts? You have laid them out pretty clearly.

 

What I am pointing out is the weakness I see in your interpretation of the ESPC's recent press release.While your general message may well be sound, critiques like this one suggest to me that you don't fully understand what you are talking about.

[coppercrutch]

The ESPC article compares like-for-like - i.e. the same quarter compared from year to year. While that seems perfectly reasonable to me, one could disagree. Fair enough.

 

The ESPC are not claiming there has been growth from quarter to quarter. Some may consider that to be a more reasonable measure of growth. I'm not so sure, given the seasonal nature of house sales.

 

Yes but they are 'implying' that prices are still rising by using the word 'growth' and 'rising' over and over again. Your average person believes this. It is completely untrue. I have pointed out this to a fair few people this week. All were shocked when they realised the truth and they had the hard figures sitting in front of them. The general reaction was 'But doesn't that mean they are falling?'

 

As I have said it is a form of brainwashing. Pure and simple.

 

That is the problem I have with what they are saying. If they put the ACTUAL FIGURES FROM THE LAST YEAR IN THE Evening News and showed a graph then people could make their mind up for themselves.

 

When they state 'rising' they should at least put a wee asterix and have a note at the bottom explaining how this is worked out - because I imagine the vast majority of the population have zero clue.

[Chip Douglas]

Well considering the growth of the LAST 12 MONTHS is 1.5% and the next results are likely to show falls of about 5% isn't his prediction a little ridiculous....

 

I don't know the figures, can't really be arsed checking them out.

 

We're going around in circles here because we can't analyse what he has predicted until the end of the year, precisely the point you ridiculed Peebo about above.

 

I can't see what kind of kudos you think you'll get from your self invented fan base by claiming victories 3 months into a 12 month prediction.

 

As I said earlier, the first quarter of the year is not seasonally renowned for breaking records by any stretch of the imagination.

 

You can start your crowing at the end of this year when the results show the crash you so vehemently predict. To do so before makes you look like a bit of an attention seeking loony. In my view of course.

 

Sleep tight.

 

[coppercrutch]

Why do you need someone to point out the facts? You have laid them out pretty clearly.

 

What I am pointing out is the weakness I see in your interpretation of the ESPC's recent press release.While your general message may well be sound, critiques like this one suggest to me that you don't fully understand what you are talking about.

 

I think it is clear I know what I am talking about. My above reaction to the EN story is simply to show them up for what they. An advertisement for Edinburgh Solicitors and estate agents.

 

If you don't believe that then nae luck. More fool you.

[Chip Douglas]

Yes but they are 'implying' that prices are still rising by using the word 'growth' and 'rising' over and over again. Your average person believes this. It is completely untrue. I have pointed out this to a fair few people this week. All were shocked when they realised the truth and they had the hard figures sitting in front of them. The general reaction was 'But doesn't that mean they are falling?'

 

As I have said it is a form of brainwashing. Pure and simple.

 

That is the problem I have with what they are saying. If they put the ACTUAL FIGURES FROM THE LAST YEAR IN THE Evening News and showed a graph then people could make their mind up for themselves.

 

When they state 'rising' they should at least put a wee asterix and have a note at the bottom explaining how this is worked out - because I imagine the vast majority of the population have zero clue.

 

There's nothing I can disagree with in there.

[Chip Douglas]

I think it is clear I know what I am talking about. My above reaction to the EN story is simply to show them up for what they. An advertisement for Edinburgh Solicitors and estate agents.

 

If you don't believe that then nae luck. More fool you.

 

You think you know what you're talking about.

 

[coppercrutch]

I don't know the figures, can't really be arsed checking them out.

 

We're going around in circles here because we can't analyse what he has predicted until the end of the year, precisely the point you ridiculed Peebo about above.

 

I can't see what kind of kudos you think you'll get from your self invented fan base by claiming victories 3 months into a 12 month prediction.

 

As I said earlier, the first quarter of the year is not seasonally renowned for breaking records by any stretch of the imagination.

 

You can start your crowing at the end of this year when the results show the crash you so vehemently predict. To do so before makes you look like a bit of an attention seeking loony. In my view of course.

 

Sleep tight.

 

 

Well if being a looney means warning people of what is coming up then so be it. I am a loony. And by the looks of it a pretty decent one.

 

Oh and BTW my predictions have been on real house price falls of 30+%.

 

Houses have to grow by at least 4.3% per year (On present figures) just to keep the same value.

 

The chances of this happening in the next few years is pretty close to zero.

 

Good night

[Peebo]

Yes but they are 'implying' that prices are still rising by using the word 'growth' and 'rising' over and over again. Your average person believes this. It is completely untrue. I have pointed out this to a fair few people this week. All were shocked when they realised the truth and they had the hard figures sitting in front of them. The general reaction was 'But doesn't that mean they are falling?'

 

As I have said it is a form of brainwashing. Pure and simple.

 

That is the problem I have with what they are saying. If they put the ACTUAL FIGURES FROM THE LAST YEAR IN THE Evening News and showed a graph then people could make their mind up for themselves.

 

When they state 'rising' they should at least put a wee asterix and have a note at the bottom explaining how this is worked out - because I imagine the vast majority of the population have zero clue.

 

The first sentence of the latest press release makes it clear it is talking about annual inflation. The second sentence states the two figures being compared, and calculates the percentage change. The quarterly figures are in the public domain.

 

If you call that brainwashing, you need to get out a bit more. You must also mix with a lot of idiots if your appraisal of the "average person" is anything to go by.

[Peebo]

...precisely the point you ridiculed Peebo about above...

 

Don't worry, I'm over it already.

[flecktimus]

You think you know what you're talking about.

 

 

Coopercrutch is the man that knows more about the Edinburgh Housing market than the edinburgh estate agents.Thats why he still lives with his mum:sad:

[coppercrutch]

The first sentence of the latest press release makes it clear it is talking about annual inflation. The second sentence states the two figures being compared, and calculates the percentage change. The quarterly figures are in the public domain.

 

If you call that brainwashing, you need to get out a bit more. You must also mix with a lot of idiots if your appraisal of the "average person" is anything to go by.

 

Fair points. But can i ask you how many average people read the actual release ? Compared to how many just read what the Evening News or Scotsman tells them ? ratio of 20:1 maybe ? I bet you most people on this thread had no idea where to find this until I showed them. I bet you every single one knows where to find a copy of the days paper if they want to....

 

And as you can see for yourself the Evening News story cunningly omits any mention of 'annual' prices., whilst not bothering to mention how the figures are worked out. How convenient.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Credit-crunch-hits-city-house.3957214.jp

 

Trust me. I KNOW the EN has a certain slant on property stories. I can't tell you why I am afraid. But I am not making this up. You will have to trust me on this one

[Peebo]

My above reaction to the EN story is simply to show them up for what they.

 

The intention may be that. However, your interpretation of the figures discussed is, at best, a disingenuous attempt to disprove what is simply a fact or, at worst, an indication that you do not actually understand how a simple inflation figure is calculated.

 

Either way, it lends nothing to your overall argument.

[coppercrutch]

Coopercrutch is the man that knows more about the Edinburgh Housing market than the edinburgh estate agents.Thats why he still lives with his mum

 

That is exactly why I still live at home. That is the whole point of still living at home and saving up as much cash as I can. In case you haven't noticed you REQUIRE a deposit these days to buy any sort of house......

 

Funny how I am setting myself up nicely whilst the majority pay massive interest payments to their bank, whilst racking up large debts. I prefer to keep the interest to myself. But hey what an idiot. No debts. Large savings. And all this at a time when it looks like this is exactly what will be required to grab a bargain in a few years time. I am so stupid.

[Peebo]

Fair points. But can i ask you how many average people read the actual release ? Compared to how many just read what the Evening News or Scotsman tells them ? ratio of 20:1 maybe ? I bet you most people on this thread had no idea where to find this until I showed them. I bet you every single one knows where to find a copy of the days paper if they want to....

 

And as you can see for yourself the Evening News story cunningly omits any mention of 'annual' prices., whilst not bothering to mention how the figures are worked out. How convenient.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Credit-crunch-hits-city-house.3957214.jp

 

Trust me. I KNOW the EN has a certain slant on property stories. I can't tell you why I am afraid. But I am not making this up. You will have to trust me on this one

 

Uh-huh. So you think that a newspaper might be swayed by a partially-hidden agenda in terms of what it prints? Nothing new there, but it's not what I was talking about.

[coppercrutch]

The intention may be that. However, your interpretation of the figures discussed is, at best, a disingenuous attempt to disprove what is simply a fact or, at worst, an indication that you do not actually understand how a simple inflation figure is calculated.

 

Either way, it lends nothing to your overall argument.

 

Dear dear Peebo. I actually know what inflation is. The EN and the ESPC do not. That is why you will NEVER find a reference to REAL house values in any of their publications. In the World of the EN and the ESPC inflation does not exist. How lucky for them...

 

But hey, I am the one who knows nothing about inflation eh....

[Peebo]

Dear dear Peebo. I actually know what inflation is. The EN and the ESPC do not. That is why you will NEVER find a reference to REAL house values in any of their publications. In the World of the EN and the ESPC inflation does not exist. How lucky for them...

 

But hey, I am the one who knows nothing about inflation eh....

 

Uh-huh. I was refering to the house price inflation figure stated in the press release you are discussing, and suggesting that you may not have understood how it was calculated.

 

I am pleased for you that you know what general price inflation is, assuming that's what you are trying to introduce to this particular debate.

[coppercrutch]

Uh-huh. I was refering to the house price inflation figure stated in the press release you are discussing, and suggesting that you may not have understood how it was calculated.

I am pleased for you that you know what general price inflation is, assuming that's what you are trying to introduce to this particular debate.

 

I know exactly how they are calculated. It is not difficult. My point was that the average person does not. All they see is 'prices rising at slower rates' and so they still think the prices are going up. When in reality they have fallen for the last 9 months.

 

These poor folk will only know prices are falling when it has already been happening for over a year(My rollercoaster was my analogy of this ) !!!

 

I hope I have educated a few folk reading this so they are not so easily swayed and investigate things themselves. Since I started doing that my eyes have been opened !! The spin that goes on in this country is ****ing horrific.

 

If everyone just thought for themselves it would be a far better place.

[Peebo]

I know exactly how they are calculated. It is not difficult. My point was that the average person does not.

 

Perhaps people I know and deal with are not demographically-representative of the UK, but if I were to conduct a survey using them as a sample, I am very confident that the results would indicate that the "average person" would understand how the figure in question was calculated. As you say, it is not difficult.

[coppercrutch]

Perhaps people I know and deal with are not demographically-representative of the UK, but if I were to conduct a survey using them as a sample, I am very confident that the results would indicate that the "average person" would understand how the figure in question was calculated. As you say, it is not difficult.

 

I think we finally agree on something !!

 

Your average person inthe UK has zero clue of what BoE rates have on our currency, inflation or mortgage/savings rates. They do not understand what 'real' prices are. Most do not even realise how much interest they will pay on thier house over 25 years. Many are shocked when I point out it is usually well over 100 % !! The statement that 'renting is dead money' doesn't ring quite so true when you point out that 'Paying 150k interest to a bank' is also dead money.

 

Most people need the front page of a newspaper to tell them "YOUR HOUSE IS LOSING VALUE" before they actually believe it. These people are only going to work out what is happening about a year after it actually started. I only have a clue of what is happening because I was thinking about diving in to buy a flat about 18 months ago. I decided to look into the details due to the large sums of money involved. I thought that would be a sensible thing to do. I have concluded that my plan of action is the best way forward. I hope to save myself well over 100k by using this plan:

 

1) Drop in the nominal value of a house, even if it is by 20k that is 20k saved compared to buying when everyone was telling me 'I had to otherwise it will be too late'

2) THE BIG ONE Reducing amount of interest I have to pay on a mortgage if I get one, and if I actually decide to buy a place. (Which I am still undecided about.) If I do though this could result in a huge saving in reduction of interest paid. Could well creep into 6 figures....

 

Anyway time will only tell if it is a good plan or not. I am confident though.

[flecktimus]

I think we finally agree on something !!

 

Your average person inthe UK has zero clue of what BoE rates have on our currency, inflation or mortgage/savings rates. They do not understand what 'real' prices are. Most do not even realise how much interest they will pay on thier house over 25 years. Many are shocked when I point out it is usually well over 100 % !! The statement that 'renting is dead money' doesn't ring quite so true when you point out that 'Paying 150k interest to a bank' is also dead money.

 

Most people need the front page of a newspaper to tell them "YOUR HOUSE IS LOSING VALUE" before they actually believe it. These people are only going to work out what is happening about a year after it actually started. I only have a clue of what is happening because I was thinking about diving in to buy a flat about 18 months ago. I decided to look into the details due to the large sums of money involved. I thought that would be a sensible thing to do. I have concluded that my plan of action is the best way forward. I hope to save myself well over 100k by using this plan:

 

1) Drop in the nominal value of a house, even if it is by 20k that is 20k saved compared to buying when everyone was telling me 'I had to otherwise it will be too late'

2) THE BIG ONE Reducing amount of interest I have to pay on a mortgage if I get one, and if I actually decide to buy a place. (Which I am still undecided about.) If I do though this could result in a huge saving in reduction of interest paid. Could well creep into 6 figures....

 

Anyway time will only tell if it is a good plan or not. I am confident though.

 

Sounds like a good plan.Best plan stay with your mum and enjoy.

[flecktimus]

WOW!!!!!!! This is in the Heart of Sherwood Forest

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-20642711.rsp?pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

[The Old Tolbooth]

BBR to fall to 5% tomorrow, just had news of it through.

 

Woolwich and Barclays have also announced that they will be cutting 0.25% off their rates accordingly.

[flecktimus]

Can this week get any better

1) House prices up 2.5% in my area

2) Had a survey this morning and the opinion of the surveyor the market is in good condition

3) Interest Rates down

4) Had a tip from an Edinburgh expert on the Housing market that the market is about to collapse so when i move back up later this year i can clean up.

[coppercrutch]

WOW!!!!!!! This is in the Heart of Sherwood Forest

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-20642711.rsp?pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

 

 

Just shows you that in certain circumstances 'location' can mean sweet **** all. Isn't that rather a pleasant area ?

 

Can this week get any better

1) House prices up 2.5% in my area - So where do you live ? I take it's not Kirkcaldy

2) Had a survey this morning and the opinion of the surveyor the market is in good condition - Again where do you live ? Not Edinburgh I presume..

3) Interest Rates down - Yes and many lenders wont pass them onto borrowers. And the ones that do probably raised them last week in prepearation for this. A cunning plan that not many people know about. JM may though I imagine....

4) Had a tip from an Edinburgh expert on the Housing market that the market is about to collapse so when i move back up later this year i can clean up.- Now this I would have to agree with. But to be fair I am not a bonafide expert. But I know a lot more than your average 'expert' so why not declare myself as one !!

 

[heart of lothian]

BBR to fall to 5% tomorrow, just had news of it through.

 

Woolwich and Barclays have also announced that they will be cutting 0.25% off their rates accordingly.

 

Bank of Ireland (Post Office) has pulled all its mortgages for re-pricing. Not sure up or down!

 

Alliance + Leicester put rates up.

 

Nationwide puts fixed rates up.

[coppercrutch]

Bank of Ireland (Post Office) has pulled all its mortgages for re-pricing. Not sure up or down!

 

Alliance + Leicester put rates up.

 

Nationwide puts fixed rates up.

 

Looks like lenders are picking and choosing. Beware of those lenders passing on the full rate cuts. I imagine a fair few raised by exactly the same amount last week in preparation. How very cunning....

 

I really find this all quite interesting. I will be loving it in a few years to look back at what actually happens. Who knows....