coppercrutch Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Another interesting story to add to the list: Council of mortgage lenders figures out today, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7289134.stm January 2007 - 75,500 loans for home purchase August 2007 - 103,000 loans for home purchase January 2008 - 50,300 loans for home purchase That is some fall. Ties in with the Edinburgh figures of sales dropping over 15% from Jan this year to January last year. Also fits in pretty well with July 2007 being the peak in Edinburgh property prices - as mentioned earlier. The amazing thing is the bad news has still yet to really filter through to the average person in the UK yet. It is going downhill fast already and people still have their jobs. This time next year it will be carnage. Economy, housing the whole kit and caboodle. Enjoy. BTW. How amusing - as I am writing this an ad has appeared above stating "Highly succesfull Property investor reveals secrets to make massive real estate wealth" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davemclaren Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Another interesting story to add to the list: Council of mortgage lenders figures out today, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7289134.stm January 2007 - 75,500 loans for home purchase August 2007 - 103,000 loans for home purchase January 2008 - 50,300 loans for home purchase That is some fall. Ties in with the Edinburgh figures of sales dropping over 15% from Jan this year to January last year. Also fits in pretty well with July 2007 being the peak in Edinburgh property prices - as mentioned earlier. The amazing thing is the bad news has still yet to really filter through to the average person in the UK yet. It is going downhill fast already and people still have their jobs. This time next year it will be carnage. Economy, housing the whole kit and caboodle. Enjoy. BTW. How amusing - as I am writing this an ad has appeared above stating "Highly succesfull Property investor reveals secrets to make massive real estate wealth" Contractors will be first out come the CC armageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Contractors will be first out come the CC armageddon. That is why I am saving like a ******* !!! I am interested to see the response to my 'doomsday'* scenario is getting weaker and weaker by the day. I started this last summer and the general response was 'No danger'. That has gradually become a little more realistic. Now I think most people understand what is coming. Hard times. Just how hard is the question. As I have said in a years time I will be very, very surprised if we are not in serious economic trouble. To be honest we already are. Big style. Don't just wait until Darling and Brown tell you so !! Once they start saying it is bad we are well and truly ****ed. * I personally think the coming economic situation is long overdue. I wouldn't see it as 'doom'. Just a timely wake up call. You can't have people spending money they don't have for years without some seriously bad consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neobis Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 I personally think the coming economic situation is long overdue. I wouldn't see it as 'doom'. Just a timely wake up call. I 100% agree. You can't have people spending money they don't have for years without some seriously bad consequences. Correct. Don't spent it unless you can afford it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 I 100% agree. Correct. Don't spent it unless you can afford it. Good to see some like minded people agree !! That link above to the 'madness' is mental. People not even knowing who "owns" these mortgages anymore !! I see Bovis were calling on the treasury to lower interest rates yesterday as sales of their homes are plummeting ?!! So lets just let inflation rage out of control (Although it is already) so that housebuilders can continue building shoddy houses and selling them for obscene prices !! Brilliant. How about these housebuilders just LOWER THE PRICES and they will have no problem selling them.... I hope some of them to go bust. They deserve it. Sometimes living in this country I think I may as well just go and rob a bank. It seems all my hard work ends up paying for people who can't look after themselves. How exactly is that my problem....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Sometimes living in this country I think I may as well just go and rob a bank. It seems all my hard work ends up paying for people who can't look after themselves. How exactly is that my problem....... You've stated an number of times that you are in the wonderful position of being able to up sticks and move anywhere you like. Why is it that you still choose to remain in such a hellish country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobM Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 You've stated an number of times that you are in the wonderful position of being able to up sticks and move anywhere you like. Why is it that you still choose to remain in such a hellish country? His maw stays here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 You've stated an number of times that you are in the wonderful position of being able to up sticks and move anywhere you like. Why is it that you still choose to remain in such a hellish country? I have travelled and worked in many different countries. Many of them have a far better standard of living than the UK. Even considering this I do love British people. We are a bunch of bawbags and there is no-one like us on this Earth. I don't mind Britain in general but it is just getting more and more pathetic every year. The **** carry on getting money for sitting ontheir backsides. The people that work and pay their taxes keep on getting fleeced for more and more of their hard earned cash. Ideally I would like to live here in the UK for the majority of the time, with nice long breaks to foreign shores. Of course my mum does stay here as well !! Along with most of my family, friends and of course football. Wouldn't want to leave that all behind for ever !! This country is getting less and less attractive by the year. Last year was the first year in which the number of Polish leaving the country was greater than those arriving. That should give us a big clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobM Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Of course my mum does stay here as well !! Along with most of my family, friends and of course football. Wouldn't want to leave that all behind for ever !! This country is getting less and less attractive by the year. Last year was the first year in which the number of Polish leaving the country was greater than those arriving. That should give us a big clue. Heh heh heh. Sorry for the crack there bud. If I could speak Polish I'd consider upping sticks over there in the nearish future, there's going to be opportunities there for those ready to take up on them and it's a beautiful and friendly place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Heh heh heh. Sorry for the crack there bud. If I could speak Polish I'd consider upping sticks over there in the nearish future, there's going to be opportunities there for those ready to take up on them and it's a beautiful and friendly place. No probs. I can dish it out so I have to take it too !! Good plan for Poland though. They are leaving here in droves apparently. Not obvious down Leith Walk way though !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 The utopic French alternative to Britain's "owner"-occupier hell. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/crossing_continents/7290139.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7294040.stm Does this signal the time to sell for our resident gold experts? Now that these idiots in journalism and banking know about it, it's only a matter of time before your average moron on the street knows about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobM Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7282923.stm Heading back to Poland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7282923.stm Heading back to Poland. Poland joins EU. Poles utilise their newfound freedom of movement to seek better economic conditions elsewhere. Poland's economy improves. Poles then choose to return home, attracted by improved economic conditions. Who'd have thunk that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7294040.stm Does this signal the time to sell for our resident gold experts? Now that these idiots in journalism and banking know about it, it's only a matter of time before your average moron on the street knows about. Not at all. Think back to the dot.com boom. At the height of it in your average office how many punters were talking about buying shares etc... ? A fair few. Think back to the property boom. At the height of it in your average office how many punters were talking about getting 'into property', how much they had made on their 'Buy to let' etc...? A fair few. Now think of today and gold. How many people in your average office EVEN KNOW you can invest in gold, through gold mining shares etc....? Very few. Now this does not prove anything in regards to the future price of gold. What it does show however is that if Gold is the next 'boom' it has only just begun. On another point have a look at the article below today in the Times: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3542775.ece "Bankers say that mortgage lenders, such as Paragon, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, could also be teetering on the brink soon if they cannot raise enough money in the markets to continue to lend to customers. All the banks have denied that they are facing a cash crunch and each has said that its liquidity position is strong. Nonetheless, the speculation continues to mount. " Have a look at my post #9 from almost a month ago: The Government realised this and knew if NR went bankrupt they would have been only the first. Alliance and Leicester, Bradford and Bingley[/b'] and now even RBS are looking slightly dodgy http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=5610 Now I am not saying that I know much about this. I have only been looking at this sort of stuff for a year or two. I have gained most of my knowledge from websites, blogs etc.. Ask yourself this though: The poster CC on JKB knows more about the possibility of these banks being in trouble ALMOST A MONTH BEFORE the business editor of the Times. Now that is ****ing scary !! And again perfectly proves my point. People in positions of power in this country who you would EXPECT to have a clue about this stuff mostly do not. SCARY STUFF INDEED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 The poster CC on JKB knows more about the possibility of these banks being in trouble ALMOST A MONTH BEFORE the business editor of the Times. If you say so. However, it is the case that in many professional situations, people who publish material that can affect share prices etc. often know things long before they are in a position to publish them. The fact that you posted your opinion on something on Kickback before the business editor of the Times published something actually "proves" nothing. I will sleep easy tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 If you say so. However, it is the case that in many professional situations, people who publish material that can affect share prices etc. often know things long before they are in a position to publish them. The fact that you posted your opinion on something on Kickback before the business editor of the Times published something actually "proves" nothing. I will sleep easy tonight. You are getting desperate now my old friend !!! I have USED published facts to PROVE that I stated these things way, way before the Times. You really think they wouldn't publish something like this due to share prices etc. !? If that is the case then how can they do it now. Just admit that my knowledge is actually impressing you. Nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 You are getting desperate now my old friend !!! I have USED published facts to PROVE that I stated these things way, way before the Times. You really think they wouldn't publish something like this due to share prices etc. !? If that is the case then how can they do it now. Just admit that my knowledge is actually impressing you. Nothing wrong with that. Desperate about what? Journalists, analysts, etc. typically know and think things that they would choose not, or would not be allowed, to publish. I know that for, as you would say, a 100% FACT. Perhaps even a 110% FACT. I don't think anyone would dispute the proof of when you posted certain messages on here - the evidence is there for all to see. You may have allowed your opinion to be published before this Times article. Fair enough...but so what? If you are suggesting that you know more about the state of the British banking industry than the Business Editor of the Times, who am I to dispute that? I do, however, argue that the timing of when one shares his opinion with the world, whether via Kickback's Shed or the Times, proves nothing about the comparative depth of his knowledge. As for being impressed by your knowledge - you clearly have read a lot about the subject. I am more interested in your opinions, though - even more so since you revealed to us that they are not actually all your own. I have to say you are improving - previously, any requests for you to expand on, and provide arguments to back up, your opinions were simply blanked. Now, at least, you do at least provide links to other articles etc.. Almost as if you have a ready made list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Desperate about what? Journalists, analysts, etc. typically know and think things that they would choose not, or would not be allowed, to publish. I know that for, as you would say, a 100% FACT. Perhaps even a 110% FACT. I don't think anyone would dispute the proof of when you posted certain messages on here - the evidence is there for all to see. You may have allowed your opinion to be published before this Times article. Fair enough...but so what? If you are suggesting that you know more about the state of the British banking industry than the Business Editor of the Times, who am I to dispute that? I do, however, argue that the timing of when one shares his opinion with the world, whether via Kickback's Shed or the Times, proves nothing about the comparative depth of his knowledge. As for being impressed by your knowledge - you clearly have read a lot about the subject. I am more interested in your opinions, though - even more so since you revealed to us that they are not actually all your own. I have to say you are improving - previously, any requests for you to expand on, and provide arguments to back up, your opinions were simply blanked. Now, at least, you do at least provide links to other articles etc.. Almost as if you have a ready made list... Peebo Peebo. Wow !! my opinions on the World economy are not 100% my own. What a revalation.... THERE IS NOT ONE PERSON IN THIS WORLD WHOSE OPINIONS ON THE WORLDS ECONOMY ARE 100% THEIR OWN !!! You would have to know everything. Nobody does. And yes I do have a ready made list. I just have to open any online paper these days and something is sitting there waiting to go !!! I was one of the few people on here last summer saying this countries economy is going to pot. Only a couple of others agreed. We we right. The rest were wrong. I think you are a little peeved coz you never took me up on my gold advice. Fair dos. But just admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Peebo Peebo. Wow !! my opinions on the World economy are not 100% my own. What a revalation.... THERE IS NOT ONE PERSON IN THIS WORLD WHOSE OPINIONS ON THE WORLDS ECONOMY ARE 100% THEIR OWN !!! You would have to know everything. Nobody does. I can't speak for everyone else, but my opinions on any subject are my own. While these are obviously formed from experience, knowledge and external influence, my opinions are simply my own thoughts on a subject. How can opinions be anything other than one's own? The alternative would mean simply parroting the views of someone else. Surely noone does that... I think you are a little peeved coz you never took me up on my gold advice. Fair dos. But just admit it. I believe I thanked you for your advice at the time. I think I have also thanked you in the past for airing your little theories regarding what motivates my post - they are quite amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 If I were to, for example, become an estate agent, would it be common practice at most firms for me to have to pay ?2500 for my own training and then pay a sort of "lease" on office space amounting to ?400 per month? Not only that, but as a commission paying job, having to wait up to 10 weeks (or more) for any property sales to be concluded, therefore 3 months without a wage? Edit: So that amounts to ?3700 before I seen any return, and that is assuming I had a sale or two quick-ish... I know 3 people who have done this Re Max course and did not last a month, you have to generate your own sales leads, and remember even once you get a lead, you will probably be in competition against the likes of Warners, Leslie Deans, Drummond Miller etc etc. Find something else and keep your money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 I know 3 people who have done this Re Max course and did not last a month, you have to generate your own sales leads, and remember even once you get a lead, you will probably be in competition against the likes of Warners, Leslie Deans, Drummond Miller etc etc. Find something else and keep your money. After 6 pages and as serious thread hijack the above is the advice you were actually looking for !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobM Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 Poland joins EU. Poles utilise their newfound freedom of movement to seek better economic conditions elsewhere. Poland's economy improves. Poles then choose to return home, attracted by improved economic conditions. Who'd have thunk that? Not getting involved in any slagging match re. this but I think it's the rapidity tthat this situation has arisen with that may give some pause for thought. Well done to Poland and the Poles in my book, it's a fantastic place and deserves a break after all it's been through. Hopefully relationships built up on both sides will help UK and Scottish businesses in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 Not getting involved in any slagging match re. this but I think it's the rapidity tthat this situation has arisen with that may give some pause for thought. Well done to Poland and the Poles in my book, it's a fantastic place and deserves a break after all it's been through. Hopefully relationships built up on both sides will help UK and Scottish businesses in the long term. I think you are aright and a fair few will be assessing whether it is worthwhile sharing a flat with 5 others in Edinburgh at the moment. Especially if they can go home and earn not bad money. Remember there are about 30k Poles in Edinburgh right now ? Give or take. Most of them are staying in rented accomodation in Edinburgh. What happens when suddenly all these flats are emptied of their tenants in the next year or two............. No doubt many are owned by amatuer BTL'ers that are already getting a little frightened by the situation, and how much money they are losing every month. I wonder what could happen next. As I said below, expect a huge number of flats to be up for sale very soon. Mostly down to the change in CGT rules, but if half our Poles head home as well.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walter Payton Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 Not at all. Think back to the dot.com boom. At the height of it in your average office how many punters were talking about buying shares etc... ? A fair few. Think back to the property boom. At the height of it in your average office how many punters were talking about getting 'into property', how much they had made on their 'Buy to let' etc...? A fair few. Now think of today and gold. How many people in your average office EVEN KNOW you can invest in gold, through gold mining shares etc....? Very few. Now this does not prove anything in regards to the future price of gold. What it does show however is that if Gold is the next 'boom' it has only just begun. On another point have a look at the article below today in the Times: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3542775.ece "Bankers say that mortgage lenders, such as Paragon, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, could also be teetering on the brink soon if they cannot raise enough money in the markets to continue to lend to customers. All the banks have denied that they are facing a cash crunch and each has said that its liquidity position is strong. Nonetheless, the speculation continues to mount. " Have a look at my post #9 from almost a month ago: http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=5610 Now I am not saying that I know much about this. I have only been looking at this sort of stuff for a year or two. I have gained most of my knowledge from websites, blogs etc.. Ask yourself this though: The poster CC on JKB knows more about the possibility of these banks being in trouble ALMOST A MONTH BEFORE the business editor of the Times. Now that is ****ing scary !! And again perfectly proves my point. People in positions of power in this country who you would EXPECT to have a clue about this stuff mostly do not. SCARY STUFF INDEED. Interesting that today Bear Stearns has had to obtain emergency funding from JP Morgan http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7296678.stm This is one of the major names on Wall Street we're talking about, mainly because Banks are increasingly hesitant before lending to each other (ala Northern Rock). More and more I'm thinking CC is on the money- we're already (IMO) seeing a knock-on impact with banks willing to lend less and less in terms of equity stakes, particularly to first time buyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobM Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 I think you are aright and a fair few will be assessing whether it is worthwhile sharing a flat with 5 others in Edinburgh at the moment. Especially if they can go home and earn not bad money. Remember there are about 30k Poles in Edinburgh right now ? Give or take. Most of them are staying in rented accomodation in Edinburgh. What happens when suddenly all these flats are emptied of their tenants in the next year or two............. No doubt many are owned by amatuer BTL'ers that are already getting a little frightened by the situation, and how much money they are losing every month. I wonder what could happen next. As I said below, expect a huge number of flats to be up for sale very soon. Mostly down to the change in CGT rules, but if half our Poles head home as well.................... I wouldn't be too hasty with that though, there is still good money to be made for Polish people here, wages over there aren't all they could be and people are still arriving at the moment while their wage structure catches up with the fact that the Zloty is increasing in value on the exchange markets. Any move in the other direction is newsworthy and will be reported in a manner that is probably disproportionate. The Polish economy was always going to experience stronger and faster growth than the other accession states. Ukranian delis a growth business in Leith and Gorgie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 There are better and safer ways to BTL than the commercial market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 I wouldn't be too hasty with that though, there is still good money to be made for Polish people here, wages over there aren't all they could be and people are still arriving at the moment while their wage structure catches up with the fact that the Zloty is increasing in value on the exchange markets. Any move in the other direction is newsworthy and will be reported in a manner that is probably disproportionate. The Polish economy was always going to experience stronger and faster growth than the other accession states. Ukranian delis a growth business in Leith and Gorgie? I totally agree. The tide has turned though. That is an important thing. I agree there will continue to be lots of Poles over here in the next few years, but the allure of the UK is fading fast, very fast. If even 10,000 of the Poles leave Edinburgh that will leave a HUGE gap in demand for new build rents for BTL flats. Anyone owning those flats should be very worried right now. Never mind the rest of what is going on !! A few more interesting articles below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL TIMES: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb560b4a-f1ed-11dc-9b45-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 "The notion that the US could suffer the kind of deep and protracted recession that plagued Japan in the 1990s no longer looks as far-fetched as it did a month or two ago." "House prices are in free-fall, spreading losses through the universe of mortgage-backed securities and making it very difficult for financial markets to stabilise. The labour market is cracking, with three consecutive months of job losses in the private sector. Consumer sentiment has soured and spending is faltering" "Mortgage rates are much higher now than they were when the Fed resorted to emergency interest rate cuts in January." "What needs to be done? There is no silver bullet. Whatever happens, house prices will have to fall further to reach a fundamental equilibrium" The TIMES: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property/2008/03/15/pword115.xml "So how bad could it really get?" It's telling that I'm asked the question more and more these days - both about the housing market and the broader British economy. Sadly, my answer isn't always what people want to hear" "The prospects for the housing market are as bad as they have been for almost two decades.It's not merely that house prices are already falling (though they are - if the past few months are anything to go by, we are looking at a drop of more than 5 per cent across the UK this year)" "It's difficult to get your head round the scale of the US housing crash, there are now nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 per cent of the total, in negative equity, where their mortgage is now worth more than their home itself." "What's to prevent us following in America's wake? Very little, as it happens. Our house prices are, in fact, even more overvalued; we are more highly indebted; our interest rates are even higher than in the US." "One section of the market - the buy-to-let landlords who bought in new-build developments in places such as Manchester and Leeds in recent years - is already facing a price crash." "I don't buy the argument that the chronic shortage of new housing will stop prices from plummeting. Even taking this into account, our property market is significantly overvalued. Prices will continue to fall, and it won't be pretty. The best we can hope for is that it is not as ugly a denouement as in the US" ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As I have said. Anyone who has bought a house to live in and is happy with that ? Good on you. Total respect and I hope you get through the next couple of years without losing your home. However, for all those who have been smugly sitting in the pub for the last few years telling everyone how much 'profit' you have mad eon your house ? Be prepared for that smugness to be wiped from your face. It will be replaced by fear and desperation. I have no sympathy for these people. They will learn the simple truth. What goes up must come down. If they lose their homes so be it. Prices will come down and in a few years those looking to by a house TO LIVE IN will maybe be able to afford it. Funny all these articles appearing in the press now isn't it ? Very strange they all of a sudden can see exactly what is going on. Even stranger that a random poster on a football chat site has known all about this for almost a year.................. NB. Gold shares hitting record highs again. I am sure some random poster on this site also predicted this ages ago and put his money where his mouth is. 20% up after tax in 3.5 months. Wow,I bet most fund managers would kill for a return like that. Now let me make sure I sell them at the right time before before I get the smugness wiped from my own face !! At least I know they can go down as well as up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davemclaren Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 I totally agree. The tide has turned though. That is an important thing. I agree there will continue to be lots of Poles over here in the next few years, but the allure of the UK is fading fast, very fast. If even 10,000 of the Poles leave Edinburgh that will leave a HUGE gap in demand for new build rents for BTL flats. Anyone owning those flats should be very worried right now. Never mind the rest of what is going on !! A few more interesting articles below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL TIMES: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb560b4a-f1ed-11dc-9b45-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 "The notion that the US could suffer the kind of deep and protracted recession that plagued Japan in the 1990s no longer looks as far-fetched as it did a month or two ago." "House prices are in free-fall, spreading losses through the universe of mortgage-backed securities and making it very difficult for financial markets to stabilise. The labour market is cracking, with three consecutive months of job losses in the private sector. Consumer sentiment has soured and spending is faltering" "Mortgage rates are much higher now than they were when the Fed resorted to emergency interest rate cuts in January." "What needs to be done? There is no silver bullet. Whatever happens, house prices will have to fall further to reach a fundamental equilibrium" The TIMES: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property/2008/03/15/pword115.xml "So how bad could it really get?" It's telling that I'm asked the question more and more these days - both about the housing market and the broader British economy. Sadly, my answer isn't always what people want to hear" "The prospects for the housing market are as bad as they have been for almost two decades.It's not merely that house prices are already falling (though they are - if the past few months are anything to go by, we are looking at a drop of more than 5 per cent across the UK this year)" "It's difficult to get your head round the scale of the US housing crash, there are now nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 per cent of the total, in negative equity, where their mortgage is now worth more than their home itself." "What's to prevent us following in America's wake? Very little, as it happens. Our house prices are, in fact, even more overvalued; we are more highly indebted; our interest rates are even higher than in the US." "One section of the market - the buy-to-let landlords who bought in new-build developments in places such as Manchester and Leeds in recent years - is already facing a price crash." "I don't buy the argument that the chronic shortage of new housing will stop prices from plummeting. Even taking this into account, our property market is significantly overvalued. Prices will continue to fall, and it won't be pretty. The best we can hope for is that it is not as ugly a denouement as in the US" ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As I have said. Anyone who has bought a house to live in and is happy with that ? Good on you. Total respect and I hope you get through the next couple of years without losing your home. However, for all those who have been smugly sitting in the pub for the last few years telling everyone how much 'profit' you have mad eon your house ? Be prepared for that smugness to be wiped from your face. It will be replaced by fear and desperation. I have no sympathy for these people. They will learn the simple truth. What goes up must come down. If they lose their homes so be it. Prices will come down and in a few years those looking to by a house TO LIVE IN will maybe be able to afford it. Funny all these articles appearing in the press now isn't it ? Very strange they all of a sudden can see exactly what is going on. Even stranger that a random poster on a football chat site has known all about this for almost a year.................. NB. Gold shares hitting record highs again. I am sure some random poster on this site also predicted this ages ago and put his money where his mouth is. 20% up after tax in 3.5 months. Wow,I bet most fund managers would kill for a return like that. Now let me make sure I sell them at the right time before before I get the smugness wiped from my own face !! At least I know they can go down as well as up. We'll need to get a smiley with a much bigger head. Anyway, as true as 'what goes up always comes down' is 'what comes down always goes back up'. Those who have been sensible will likely be fine in the longer term. This who have speculated must like a gamble and need to carry those risks. As for Gold, I'm pleased it has risen 20% in 3.5 months, gold prices always are pretty volatile so I would consider carefully when it's best to sell. Most fund managers don't tend to invest speculatively for short term gain. As you said yourself, you only invested as much as you can afford to lose which, again is sound advice, as it was a gamble that has paid off. Now where's the racing pages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 We'll need to get a smiley with a much bigger head. Anyway, as true as 'what goes up always comes down' is 'what comes down always goes back up'. Those who have been sensible will likely be fine in the longer term. This who have speculated must like a gamble and need to carry those risks. As for Gold, I'm pleased it has risen 20% in 3.5 months, gold prices always are pretty volatile so I would consider carefully when it's best to sell. Most fund managers don't tend to invest speculatively for short term gain. As you said yourself, you only invested as much as you can afford to lose which, again is sound advice, as it was a gamble that has paid off. Now where's the racing pages.... Afternoon Mr McLaren !! You are very correct about the above. Where I see the main problem is people who have swallowed this whole 'Prices only ever go up' propaganda. These people are going to get a tanking. In all honesty if they have ploughed all their savings into a 'guaranteed winner' then they deserve what comes to them. The stupidity of some people when it comes to huge amounts of money is frightening. As for gold I have said from the start I am selling once(If:ph34r:) it reaches $1500. That has been the plan all along so I think I should stick to it. I may win, I may lose, it may never get that high - lets wait and see !! Not good for the heart anyway !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Only away for a week and look what I have missed !! One of the World's largest investrment banks gioes bust. One of Britains largest banks share price dives, but only on the back of 'unfounded rumours'. Or were they............... Gold has its largest weekly drop in over 30 years. So what's next people !! Any ideas ? I think anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheriff Fatman Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Only away for a week and look what I have missed !! One of the World's largest investrment banks gioes bust. One of Britains largest banks share price dives, but only on the back of 'unfounded rumours'. Or were they............... Gold has its largest weekly drop in over 30 years. So what's next people !! Any ideas ? I think anything is possible. That was last week, this week the shares rose by 17% and most other large British banks shares went up by between 6 and 9%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 That was last week, this week the shares rose by 17% and most other large British banks shares went up by between 6 and 9%. Yes and this week is only 2 days old !!! What a rollercoaster ride. Although ultimately it is all heading in one direction. Figures out this week show the AVERAGE drop in US house prices in the last year is over 10%. Most pundits expecting a further 15% this year. At which point they HOPE it will bottom out. Coming to a town near you soon. If not already...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Yes and this week is only 2 days old !!! What a rollercoaster ride. Although ultimately it is all heading in one direction. Figures out this week show the AVERAGE drop in US house prices in the last year is over 10%. Most pundits expecting a further 15% this year. At which point they HOPE it will bottom out. Coming to a town near you soon. If not already...................... Come on Coppercrutch USA Housing Market is down by 8% but has shown a surprise rise in house sales in Feb. If you are going to be our resident financial Soo sayer can you please report both sides of the story. Buy the way did you sell your gold in time.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7311465.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Come on Coppercrutch USA Housing Market is down by 8% but has shown a surprise rise in house sales in Feb. If you are going to be our resident financial Soo sayer can you please report both sides of the story. Buy the way did you sell your gold in time.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7311465.stm I am just offering my opinion. It may be right it may be wrong. I have stated that numerous times. I know that there has been a surprise rise in US home sales. However these sales have been at record low prices for the last couple of years. Not quite sure how that is anything other than negative news....... As for gold I am in it for the long run(Ish). Even after last week's fall I am still up. Don't think many other posters on this site can say that. In fact I can't remember many posters having the balls to admit where they are putting their money to invest in at the moment..... Come on people get it out in the open !!! Lay it on the line and lets see how we all do. Seems I am the only one who is prepared to take the flack if it all goes teets up. That makes me a winner before we even begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 I am just offering my opinion. It may be right it may be wrong. I have stated that numerous times. I know that there has been a surprise rise in US home sales. However these sales have been at record low prices for the last couple of years. Not quite sure how that is anything other than negative news....... As for gold I am in it for the long run(Ish). Even after last week's fall I am still up. Don't think many other posters on this site can say that. In fact I can't remember many posters having the balls to admit where they are putting their money to invest in at the moment..... Come on people get it out in the open !!! Lay it on the line and lets see how we all do. Seems I am the only one who is prepared to take the flack if it all goes teets up. That makes me a winner before we even begin. Blue Peter badge on its way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 As for gold I am in it for the long run(Ish). Even after last week's fall I am still up. Don't think many other posters on this site can say that. I'm sure many, many posters on here could say that - and I have no doubt a lot of them will have invested in property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 I'm sure many, many posters on here could say that - and I have no doubt a lot of them will have invested in property. It is one thing saying you have 'invested' in something AFTER it has made you money, and not before. I would hazard a guess the vast majority of people who talk about 'investing' in property have done nothing of the sort. They just happened to buy a house a few years ago. Let's hear what these people are investing in NOW. That is what separates the men from the boys. IIRC I think there is only one person on this thread who has stated where they are investing right now, gave me some ideas about uranium. I cant be arsed looking through all the pages though !! PS. You don't happen to work for a company that sent emails around to its employees last week telling them "all was good nothing to worry about" per chance.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 It is one thing saying you have 'invested' in something AFTER it has made you money, and not before. I would hazard a guess the vast majority of people who talk about 'investing' in property have done nothing of the sort. They just happened to buy a house a few years ago. Perhaps. I am think that there are possibly quite a few people who don't fall into the category you have just defined. PS. You don't happen to work for a company that sent emails around to its employees last week telling them "all was good nothing to worry about" per chance.............. No, I still don't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Perhaps. I am think that there are possibly quite a few people who don't fall into the category you have just defined. Of course there will be. And good on them for it. They are in the minority though. Of the numerous people I have met who have 'made money' on property I can't think of even one who started out with that intention......... No, I still don't... Just wondering !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Of course there will be. And good on them for it. They are in the minority though. Of the numerous people I have met who have 'made money' on property I can't think of even one who started out with that intention......... !! Have to say I don't understand that point. Your analysis seems to be that too much capital has been sucked into property investments due to the perceived high returns available on property. That money would therefore be likely to have been sucked in on the basis of people making those returns ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Have to say I don't understand that point. Your analysis seems to be that too much capital has been sucked into property investments due to the perceived high returns available on property. That money would therefore be likely to have been sucked in on the basis of people making those returns ... The money has been sucked in initially by normal people wanting to buy normal houses to live in. That is perfectly normal. However all of a sudden years later they are told they have 'made a fortune' on their house. The fact they will probably never release this 'profit' will no doubt go above most people's heads. This hysteria is then displayed in almost every Newspaper on a day to day basis. It is is also displayed on property TV programmes on an almost hourly basis. This goes on for about 5 years. This sucked in people at the tail end of this boom to think that all they have to do to make money is buy a house, do it up and then sell it. It worked for everyone before them so why would it be any different for them............ That is the current problem. That is how it has arisen. Very simple really. Now people are thinking the opposite way, in that buying a propoerty now will probably lose them money. That will result, in all probability, in the opposite hysteria. Not guaranteed of course but more than likely. Last 5 years - "You have to buy a house now or you will be left behind...." Next 5 years "Why buy a house now, if you wait till next year it will be cheaper...." I think that change is occuring as we speak. The rate at which it is occurred has surprised even me. People at my work who thought I was mental a year ago now totally agree with me. They would not even think about buying a house as a FTB at the moment. Once that oil in the system stops running the whole machine will grind to a halt. It is a bubble, and it has burst. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 I understand your point of view. But it would seem to me to suggest that people have been buying property in order to make profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 I understand your point of view. But it would seem to me to suggest that people have been buying property in order to make profits. I would definitely agree with that. I just don't think it started off that way. It has morphed from something reasonable and normal to hysteria and obsession. 1 - Most people buying a house to live in. A few buying property to make money = Reasonable state of affairs. 2 - Most people buying a house to make money. A few buying property to live in = Worrying situation. It has to all end in tears. I can see no other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article3635758.ece "Two of the biggest mortgage lenders increased their rates sharply yesterday in an attempt to close the door to all but the most creditworthy customers. The move could lead to tens of thousands of borrowers struggling to get any mortgage deal at all." Economy looking shaky. Inflation on the rise. Job losses starting to kick in later this year. Mortgage interest rates rising. At the same time as the BoE are dropping them. Lenders slashing the number of mortgage deals available. Only one 100% mortgage deal left in the ENTIRE MARKET ( Abbey and the rates are extortinate - Correct me if I am wrong ). Most lenders now wanting at least a 10% deposit.................. Lets take someone buying a 120k flat in Gorgie for example. First time buyer. Last year - Get a 105% mortgage, no deposit, pay your fees of the extra 5%, buy some furniture = No problem. This year - Only get a 90% mortgage, you now need to find somewhere in the region of 15k from your back pocket = BIG PROBLEM !! Even with the help of mum and dad how many people are going to be able to do that. Very few IMO. And that is the way it should be, no way a one bedroom flat in Gorgie should be anywhere near 120k. That price is due to speculation, nothing else. IMO a value around 70k would be down to demand and supply taking speculation out of the equation. As I have been saying for ages now - prices will come crashing down. Either in nominal terms or in real terms as inflation eats away at the 'value' as the nominal prices remain the same. Either way in a few years if you are a home owner it will be worth a lot, lot less than it is today. If you have bought it as a place to stay then you have nothing to worry about. Good luck to you. If you have bought it so you can sit in the boozer and tell everyone how much 'profit' you have made........... Well, work it out for yourself. You will need all the luck you can get your hands on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davemclaren Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Well, work it out for yourself. You will need all the luck you can get your hands on You're a cheery soul, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 You're a cheery soul, aren't you? I am indeed Mr McLaren !!! Just being realistic when it comes to this particular stuff though. Anyway if I ever do fancy getting a house (Which would be difficult for a commitment phobe like me) then I am looking forward to a few bargains in a couple of years. All good As for my gold mining shares..........Rollercoaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article3635758.ece "Two of the biggest mortgage lenders increased their rates sharply yesterday in an attempt to close the door to all but the most creditworthy customers. The move could lead to tens of thousands of borrowers struggling to get any mortgage deal at all." Economy looking shaky. Inflation on the rise. Job losses starting to kick in later this year. Mortgage interest rates rising. At the same time as the BoE are dropping them. Lenders slashing the number of mortgage deals available. Only one 100% mortgage deal left in the ENTIRE MARKET ( Abbey and the rates are extortinate - Correct me if I am wrong ). Most lenders now wanting at least a 10% deposit.................. Lets take someone buying a 120k flat in Gorgie for example. First time buyer. Last year - Get a 105% mortgage, no deposit, pay your fees of the extra 5%, buy some furniture = No problem. This year - Only get a 90% mortgage, you now need to find somewhere in the region of 15k from your back pocket = BIG PROBLEM !! Even with the help of mum and dad how many people are going to be able to do that. Very few IMO. And that is the way it should be, no way a one bedroom flat in Gorgie should be anywhere near 120k. That price is due to speculation, nothing else. IMO a value around 70k would be down to demand and supply taking speculation out of the equation. As I have been saying for ages now - prices will come crashing down. Either in nominal terms or in real terms as inflation eats away at the 'value' as the nominal prices remain the same. Either way in a few years if you are a home owner it will be worth a lot, lot less than it is today. If you have bought it as a place to stay then you have nothing to worry about. Good luck to you. If you have bought it so you can sit in the boozer and tell everyone how much 'profit' you have made........... Well, work it out for yourself. You will need all the luck you can get your hands on Have to pull you up on that one bud Here are a list of lenders who still do 100% mortgages. Abbey Bank of Ireland BDS Mortgage Group Bristol and West Cheshire Mortgage Corp Dunfermline BS (Scottish clients only) Ipswich BS Manchester BS Newcastle BS Standard Life Bank (prefessional occupations only) The Mortgage Works Ulster Bank That list was of yesterday and some of the English based lenders will only lend for properties in England and Wales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Have to pull you up on that one bud Here are a list of lenders who still do 100% mortgages. Abbey Bank of Ireland BDS Mortgage Group Bristol and West Cheshire Mortgage Corp Dunfermline BS (Scottish clients only) Ipswich BS Manchester BS Newcastle BS Standard Life Bank (prefessional occupations only) The Mortgage Works Ulster Bank That list was of yesterday and some of the English based lenders will only lend for properties in England and Wales. Cheers Mr Mitchell. So are these lenders asking serious amounts of cash to partake of their cash ? Is it generally getting harder for your average FTB to get a mortgage ? Cheers Mr M. Miko rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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