*** Hearts Summer Transfer Window 2022 - Snodgrass signs ***

[CMc]

2 minutes ago, RS86 said:

How good would it be if he is named in the starting line-up but hadn't been announced beforehand 😅

As Trialist - with JKB as his match sponsor. Possibly with or without a paper bag over his head. 

[Mr Elwood P]

3 minutes ago, upgotheheads said:

Does the recruitment of Shankland alter our situation with Simms, personally I think those two  would be a formidable strike force, or would we better relying on Henderson as well as Makenzie Kirk as backup?

Probably depends on what formation we're predominantly going with and what other attacking players are available. Simms and Shankland together doesn't really fit into the 3-4-3 or the 4-2-3-1 ...

[jambo89]

Just now, Dayman said:

I thought he had 12? Your initial reply was condescending so I matched your childish energy. I’m still waiting on your to produce something better. 

My intial reply was how they adjusted Rowes stats for the SPFL considering how he hadn't played 1500 mins on that which you didn't have an answer to.

 

There are lies, dammed lies and then there are statistics.

 

I'm sorry if you feel that we should base our transfer poilicy on 'expected goals' stats and other such nonsense, but I'd prefer to watch the boy play before making any judgements.

 

I won't be producing anything better as I don't have the latest Football manager game. soz x

[Under the floodlight]

7 minutes ago, CMc said:

 

 

 

Data is data. Scatter plots might look a bit primary school, but they are vey effective ways of comparing different things against sets of data measures. 
 

Percentages are objective and the data sets behind them will be pretty accurate (some boy in the stand or in front of a monitor recording the tallies). They are free from the selection bias and confirmation biases we as fans naturally hold. The stats are for all the games (in the league) not just the ones a single fan has watched - and they are not distorted by expectations or memory. Human memory is deeply fallible and one of its quirks is that often things that fit in with our existing concepts encode better into memory than things that don’t fit. Therefore if we view a player as strong in the air, it is quite likely our brain will seek out confirmation of this and fail to store mundane counter evidence. And then we immediately begin to forget whatever we have stored. Or overwrite with false recall. We are also far more likely to remember more recent events (eg end of season) than more distant events (end of season). With young players who can improve skills over a season, we are quite likely to superimpose this improvement on our recall of the start of the season.
 

 Bottom line, the stats are more objective than our memories. Especially for us partisan supporters who on some level want to believe we can shape external events by our enthusiasm and will for a specific outcome. 
 

Rather than attack the stats, I’d argue their could plausibly be a stylistic difference between the two leagues which would help explain the gulf - and the fact that folk are citing his international performances as evidence his league stats aren’t valid. 
 

The data is the data. But there’s always a story behind the data. My guess would be that: 

 

a) The SPL favours lots of long punts up the park from goalies and defenders. We play at 100 miles an hour and the ball gets “emptied” a lot compared to other leagues, especially those that play at a more measured tempo. Long straight balls massively favour the centre half winning the duel as they can judge the flight and launch to meet the ball and send it back, rather than trying to track over a shoulder and win a more difficult angled flick on. The little I’ve seen of the Aussie league, it looked quite ball on the deck and measured (would imagine the heat slows it down). This would lead to less speculative or reactive punts and more crosses from nearer the byline - which are a fairer contest for the attacker. To compare to another league, Van Dijk only won 71% of his aerial duels by half way through last season. Doesn’t make him bad in the air or a bad player. 
 

b) I would also guess that Kye might have been the dominant front foot defender for his club and a more junior CB for his country. The difference between the league stats and the perception of folk also watching Socceroos games could be skewed by how many of the hard headers he has to take on and who he has to man mark. I don’t know if the aerial abilities of opponents in the Asian qualifying section compared to the A-League could also be a factor. 
 

Joe’s team will have access to much more sophisticated underlying data than this raw percentage. They will also have the scouting videos show the actual challenges. If they’re happy, I’m happy. 
 

Doesn’t mean the raw percentage is wrong though. 
 

Not knowing anything about data collection and stat compiling and having never met anyone who does it,

I would be interested to know how its carried out. Having maroon tinted specs on clouds my perspective,maybe somebody knows, do the data collectors work for an official body or just freelance.Who pays for tickets tv subscriptions etc

[Dayman]

1 minute ago, jambo89 said:

My intial reply was how they adjusted Rowes stats for the SPFL considering how he hadn't played 1500 mins on that which you didn't have an answer to.

 

There are lies, dammed lies and then there are statistics.

 

I'm sorry if you feel that we should base our transfer poilicy on 'expected goals' stats and other such nonsense, but I'd prefer to watch the boy play before making any judgements.

 

I won't be producing anything better as I don't have the latest Football manager game. soz x

I caved and got the latest fm last week. Far too complex. Might buy fm 2018 again.

 

I did answer. They used his previous seasons stats in the a league. As is standard when comparing players across leagues. I’m sorry that was too hard to understand. 

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, CMc said:

Lol. Don’t know yet bud. Haven’t seen enough of him personally to give an opinion and he has not yet played a competitive game for us. 
 

Im certainty not worried by one specific stat from a different league being different to players playing in the SPL. 

 

Give me Til Christmas then I’ll get back to you. 
 

 

 

So  the stats can't say he is a good signing or not. 

 

Just some thing to make people look clever and build an online presence. 

[Spookie]

Can those discussing player stats take it onto another thread please 🙏 

 

This thread is for Hearts Transfers and incomings 

 

Rowles was signed 4 weeks ago 

[jambo89]

2 minutes ago, Dayman said:

I caved and got the latest fm last week. Far too complex. Might buy fm 2018 again.

 

I did answer. They used his previous seasons stats in the a league. As is standard when comparing players across leagues. I’m sorry that was too hard to understand. 

 

So the stats haven't been adjusted in anyway to account for the different league as I suspected. Thanks for the clarification. It's good to know that it's as simple as that, becuase we can start looking at players plying their trade in the Kazahk leagues. As long as they have good heading stats and a funky diagram, they'll be brilliant.

[CMc]

5 minutes ago, Under the floodlight said:

Not knowing anything about data collection and stat compiling and having never met anyone who does it,

I would be interested to know how its carried out. Having maroon tinted specs on clouds my perspective,maybe somebody knows, do the data collectors work for an official body or just freelance.Who pays for tickets tv subscriptions etc

It’s a fairly big industry now. Looks like a mix of folk doing computer analysis of televised games and old school punters in crowds phoning their reports in like it’s 1950 (with mobiles). 
 

The free to use sites cover the leagues with money and not much else. Would guess elite clubs and media fund the companies to pay the staff and their expenses and the rest is trickle down to ordinary punters. 

 

Article about stat collection

[jambo89]

2 minutes ago, Spookie said:

Can those discussing player stats take it onto another thread please 🙏 

 

This thread is for Hearts Transfers and incomings 

 

Rowles was signed 4 weeks ago 

You're right, but it is the hearts summer transfer thread and he was signed this summer. It is only natural to discuss these signings and what we think they will bring to the table on this thread (and technically only signed last week when the paperwork came through)

[micole]

Ok enough of the Shankland talk. Now I'm probably flying a kite here but I see that Billy Gilmour is to have talks with Chelsea about his future, if ( as it seems likely) we cannot get Simms back  on loan would Gilmour be worth a punt on a loan deal ?. Just a wee of fantasy thinking....😂😂

[Under the floodlight]

5 minutes ago, CMc said:

It’s a fairly big industry now. Looks like a mix of folk doing computer analysis of televised games and old school punters in crowds phoning their reports in like it’s 1950 (with mobiles). 
 

The free to use sites cover the leagues with money and not much else. Would guess elite clubs and media fund the companies to pay the staff and their expenses and the rest is trickle down to ordinary punters. 

 

Article about stat collection

Cheers👍

[upgotheheads]

7 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

Probably depends on what formation we're predominantly going with and what other attacking players are available. Simms and Shankland together doesn't really fit into the 3-4-3 or the 4-2-3-1 ...

Good point, but it would work well with a 3-5-2 and Robbie has already said that there won't be a settled first team line-up, which makes me think that there will be a lot of rotation. Henderson can play a bit deeper, and from what I saw of Shankland when he was at Ayr he didn't play as an out and out striker/target man, he's more of a late-run into the box type and he reads the game very well. Simms does the lone striker role better imo, relying on Kirk as backup striker might not be a good idea at his stage of development.

[Ricardo Quaresma]

The stat looks wrong, whatever it is supposed to indicate, which is unclear

 

It looks like human error; I just don't like the insisting that it is fact

 

It's third hand knowledge, how can it be stated as fact?

[CMc]

7 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

So  the stats can't say he is a good signing or not. 

 

Just some thing to make people look clever and build an online presence. 

Apologies, thought you were asking my opinion.
 

That one stat by itself can’t. Full access to all the data gives a pretty good idea. Needs backed up by video and in person scouting and character references though. 

 

The stats show scouts where to look. Handy when you can’t bank roll hundreds of them across the world. 
 

Would say the stats can identify a good player. Observation and references give an indication of fit. Time is the only judge of a good signing. Would think that’s pretty self-evident. 

[Spookie]

7 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

You're right, but it is the hearts summer transfer thread and he was signed this summer. It is only natural to discuss these signings and what we think they will bring to the table on this thread (and technically only signed last week when the paperwork came through)

It's boring though for the rest of us, who are keen to see what new incomings there are or could be 

 

You could infact just PM each other and have a one to one chat about all the stats you want guys 

 

Pretty please 🙏 

[Tom Hardy’s Dug]

14 minutes ago, Spookie said:

Can those discussing player stats take it onto another thread please 🙏 

 

This thread is for Hearts Transfers and incomings 

 

Rowles was signed 4 weeks ago 

On that, Rowles hasn’t been announced. SFA must have approved the paperwork by now?

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, CMc said:

Apologies, thought you were asking my opinion.
 

That one stat by itself can’t. Full access to all the data gives a pretty good idea. Needs backed up by video and in person scouting and character references though. 

 

The stats show scouts where to look. Handy when you can’t bank roll hundreds of them across the world. 
 

Would say the stats can identify a good player. Observation and references give an indication of fit. Time is the only judge of a good signing. Would think that’s pretty self-evident. 

 

So is Rowles a good signing or not? 

 

And if you can't say, then I'd say these stats are pretty pointless. 

 

Just some separate sub group of nerds. Fair enough to be interested in but don't tell you what is needed to assess a player properly. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Mikey1874

[jambo89]

3 minutes ago, Spookie said:

It's boring though for the rest of us, who are keen to see what new incomings there are or could be 

 

You could infact just PM each other and have a one to one chat about all the stats you want guys 

 

Pretty please 🙏 

I've heard that Shankland might be signing for Hearts. Not ITK, just a gut feeling.

[Chong]

8 minutes ago, micole said:

Ok enough of the Shankland talk. Now I'm probably flying a kite here but I see that Billy Gilmour is to have talks with Chelsea about his future, if ( as it seems likely) we cannot get Simms back  on loan would Gilmour be worth a punt on a loan deal ?. Just a wee of fantasy thinking....😂😂

Gotta think if he did consider Scottish football to progress his career it would only be at Rangers and probably even only them if they get Champions League. 

[micole]

1 minute ago, Chong said:

Gotta think if he did consider Scottish football to progress his career it would only be at Rangers and probably even only them if they get Champions League. 

Aye your probably right, just a thought though ....😁

[Ricardo Quaresma]

3 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

So is Rowles a good signing or not? 

 

And if you can't say, then I'd say these stats are pretty pointless. 

 

They are pointless; I sure as shit wouldn't post them

 

People on here will just gnaw and gnaw for around 2 days 😄

[John Findlay]

I'm reminded of the old cliche. There's lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.

 

I'm old school. I judge a player after seeing him play with my own eyes, even then not until they have played a dozen games minimum.

[JimmyCant]

36 minutes ago, Dayman said:

I’ve got a feeling this might happen. “Trialist” on the bench crudely scribbled out with “Shankland” handwritten beside it. 

Not sure you can play a ‘trialist’ who is registered to another club

[AllyjamboDerbyshire]

3 minutes ago, Ricardo Quaresma said:

The stat looks wrong, whatever it is supposed to indicate, which is unclear

 

It looks like human error; I just don't like the insisting that it is fact

 

It's third hand knowledge, how can it be stated as fact?

Does it really matter, and I don't think anyone was claiming it as 'fact'? It's an interesting, if of debateable value, comparison of a player very few of us have seen in league action. I'm pretty certain that if the chart had shown him with stats to compare favourably with the top CHs in the SPL no one would be questioning their veracity. One positive, I think, to take from those stats is that there is, or might be, an obvious area for our coaches to work on that will quickly improve his all round game. What's more, as I've spoken of earlier, it's not necessary for a defender to win these ariel challenges to be effective in stopping attackers creating danger as long as there's someone to mop up and clear, which is what central defenders working together are supposed to do. Saw Alan McLaren play Mark Hately out of a game once where McLaren barely headed the ball but left Hately frustrated and angry because he never let him get one clean header. Dave McPherson did the rest and we won - 2-0 I think.

[Spookie]

10 minutes ago, Tom Hardy’s Dug said:

On that, Rowles hasn’t been announced. SFA must have approved the paperwork by now?

True 

 

We must be behind all the old firms  recently signings,  sure it'll get seen too when they get through all theirs 🙄

[19052012]

51 minutes ago, A_A wehatethehibs said:

A 

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C
E  

 

S

H
A

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K

L

A

N

D

 

F
F

S 

 

H

E
A

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T

S

Retweet.

[Deevers]

1 minute ago, Ricardo Quaresma said:

 

They are pointless; I sure as shit wouldn't post them

 

People on here will just gnaw and gnaw for around 2 days 😄

Actually par for the course on here at times. There’s a wee cabal of posters who look for anything to rubbish a signing made by the club.  Pointless and stupid.  Most of us just make up our minds on players after we’ve actually seen them play.

[Waterboy]

23 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

 

So the stats haven't been adjusted in anyway to account for the different league as I suspected. Thanks for the clarification. It's good to know that it's as simple as that, becuase we can start looking at players plying their trade in the Kazahk leagues. As long as they have good heading stats and a funky diagram, they'll be brilliant.

 

😂😂 can you show us on the doll where the statistics touched you?

 

No one was trying to claim anything with those stats, they're presented for discussion. Doesn't mean he's mince, doesn't mean he's great. And for those disregarding statistical analysis when signing a player, show me a professional club that doesn't make great use of it these days. Probably tend to go with the professionals over the guys online saying ah can tell uh player with ma eyez.

[A_A wehatethehibs]

Are we still in for the Bodo wonder manager and wonder players? See they got beat off Linfield after gifting away a comedy goal late on 

[Waterboy]

1 minute ago, Deevers said:

Actually par for the course on here at times. There’s a wee cabal of posters who look for anything to rubbish a signing made by the club.  Pointless and stupid.  Most of us just make up our minds on players after we’ve actually seen them play.

 

No one has made their mind up on him...

[Spookie]

3 minutes ago, John Findlay said:

I'm reminded of the old cliche. There's lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.

 

I'm old school. I judge a player after seeing him play with my own eyes, even then not until they have played a dozen games minimum.

Sensible approach John 

 

But you kinda get a gut feeling  after 3/4 games, I certainly do anyway 

 

God knows we've had to watch some bad football players in the past few years,  thankfully we seem to be attracting quality over quantity these days 

[Ricardo Quaresma]

2 minutes ago, AllyjamboDerbyshire said:

Does it really matter, and I don't think anyone was claiming it as 'fact'? It's an interesting, if of debateable value, comparison of a player very few of us have seen in league action. I'm pretty certain that if the chart had shown him with stats to compare favourably with the top CHs in the SPL no one would be questioning their veracity. One positive, I think, to take from those stats is that there is, or might be, an obvious area for our coaches to work on that will quickly improve his all round game. What's more, as I've spoken of earlier, it's not necessary for a defender to win these ariel challenges to be effective in stopping attackers creating danger as long as there's someone to mop up and clear, which is what central defenders working together are supposed to do. Saw Alan McLaren play Mark Hately out of a game once where McLaren barely headed the ball but left Hately frustrated and angry because he never let him get one clean header. Dave McPherson did the rest and we won - 2-0 I think.

 

Yes, I know all that, although it was referred to as fact

 

It's not worth thinking about, or writing about

 

It should not have been posted before considering the comeback

 

Like I stated before, I would not post it, especially with that anomaly

[John Findlay]

1 minute ago, Spookie said:

Sensible approach John 

 

But you kinda get a gut feeling  after 3/4 games, I certainly do anyway 

 

God knows we've had to watch some bad football players in the past few years,  thankfully we seem to be attracting quality over quantity these days 

Another cliche.

Form is temporary, class is permanent.

[JimmyCant]

19 minutes ago, micole said:

Ok enough of the Shankland talk. Now I'm probably flying a kite here but I see that Billy Gilmour is to have talks with Chelsea about his future, if ( as it seems likely) we cannot get Simms back  on loan would Gilmour be worth a punt on a loan deal ?. Just a wee of fantasy thinking....😂😂

Hearts on loan would actually be a very good move for Gilmour. The boy’s career has turned a wee bit sour and his development has gone backwards. If ever a player needed to drop down a level or two and start again then it’s him.

 

However, he’ll probably think we’re too far of a drop. Chelsea probably wouldn’t let him come here. Hearts probably couldn’t afford the loan fee and we probably won’t even pick the phone up and ask

 

He’s  going to end up a forgotten nobody if he doesn’t get his next move right

[TheBigO]

1 hour ago, CMc said:

 

 

 

Data is data. Scatter plots might look a bit primary school, but they are vey effective ways of comparing different things against sets of data measures. 
 

Percentages are objective and the data sets behind them will be pretty accurate (some boy in the stand or in front of a monitor recording the tallies). They are free from the selection bias and confirmation biases we as fans naturally hold. The stats are for all the games (in the league) not just the ones a single fan has watched - and they are not distorted by expectations or memory. Human memory is deeply fallible and one of its quirks is that often things that fit in with our existing concepts encode better into memory than things that don’t fit. Therefore if we view a player as strong in the air, it is quite likely our brain will seek out confirmation of this and fail to store mundane counter evidence. And then we immediately begin to forget whatever we have stored. Or overwrite with false recall. We are also far more likely to remember more recent events (eg end of season) than more distant events (start of season). With young players who can improve skills over a season, we are quite likely to superimpose this improvement on our recall of the start of the season.
 

 Bottom line, the stats are more objective than our memories. Especially for us partisan supporters who on some level want to believe we can shape external events by our enthusiasm and will for a specific outcome. 
 

Rather than attack the stats, I’d argue there could plausibly be a stylistic difference between the two leagues which would help explain the gulf - and the fact that folk are citing his international performances as evidence his league stats aren’t valid. 
 

The data is the data. But there’s always a story behind the data. My guess would be that: 

 

a) The SPL favours lots of long punts up the park from goalies and defenders. We play at 100 miles an hour and the ball gets “emptied” a lot compared to other leagues, especially those that play at a more measured tempo. Long straight balls massively favour the centre half winning the duel as they can judge the flight and launch to meet the ball and send it back, rather than trying to track over a shoulder and win a more difficult angled flick on. The little I’ve seen of the Aussie league, it looked quite ball on the deck and measured (would imagine the heat slows it down). This would lead to less speculative or reactive punts and more crosses from nearer the byline - which are a fairer contest for the attacker. To compare to another league, Van Dijk only won 71% of his aerial duels by half way through last season. Doesn’t make him bad in the air or a bad player. 
 

b) I would also guess that Kye might have been the dominant front foot defender for his club and a more junior CB for his country. The difference between the league stats and the perception of folk also watching Socceroos games could be skewed by how many of the hard headers he has to take on and who he has to man mark. I don’t know if the aerial abilities of opponents in the Asian qualifying section compared to the A-League could also be a factor. 
 

Joe’s team will have access to much more sophisticated underlying data than this raw percentage. They will also have the scouting videos show the actual challenges. If they’re happy, I’m happy. 
 

Doesn’t mean the raw percentage is wrong though. 
 

Enjoyed that post mate

[Aussie Jambo]

Have to announce it today surely? I was on Twitter and bugger all still. FB the same. 

 

[RustyRightPeg]

7 minutes ago, A_A wehatethehibs said:

Are we still in for the Bodo wonder manager and wonder players? See they got beat off Linfield after gifting away a comedy goal late on 

Notice a certain someone hasn’t been seen since either. 
 

No doubt he’ll come in and tell us all we can get their players and manager for even cheaper now. 

[DC_92]

27 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

So  the stats can't say he is a good signing or not. 

 

Just some thing to make people look clever and build an online presence. 

 

No, but they give an insight into what type of player he is. Aerial prowess doesn't seem to be a strength, but most of his other stats are impressive and he seems particularly suited to the LCB role.

 

It will be these kinds of stats which will have been used by Hearts to identify him in the first instance.

 

21 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

 

So the stats haven't been adjusted in anyway to account for the different league as I suspected. Thanks for the clarification. It's good to know that it's as simple as that, becuase we can start looking at players plying their trade in the Kazahk leagues. As long as they have good heading stats and a funky diagram, they'll be brilliant.

 

Stats can only take us so far. Then you have to use a bit of reasoning.

 

His heading stats could be low because the Australian League is full of big, physical brutes up front, moreso than our league. But that seems unlikely based on what people have said about the relative physicality in each league.

 

The graphs from earlier weren't presented in a critical way and this was the only one where he underperformed IIRC.

[Ricardo Quaresma]

7 minutes ago, Deevers said:

Actually par for the course on here at times. There’s a wee cabal of posters who look for anything to rubbish a signing made by the club.  Pointless and stupid.  Most of us just make up our minds on players after we’ve actually seen them play.

 

Well, it's not going to go down well, before the guy even plays for us

 

I am sure he is very good, including in the air

 

I wouldn't post it, it can only do harm

 

[jb102]

Hoo dat?

[Spookie]

5 minutes ago, John Findlay said:

Another cliche.

Form is temporary, class is permanent.

Love it John 😀 

[Салатные палочки]

10 minutes ago, A_A wehatethehibs said:

Are we still in for the Bodo wonder manager and wonder players? See they got beat off Linfield after gifting away a comedy goal late on 

 

Did they? . NI teams are really quite pish as well. 

[Spookie]

4 minutes ago, Aussie Jambo said:

Have to announce it today surely? I was on Twitter and bugger all still. FB the same. 

 

Be interesting to see what the hold up is 🤔 if they tell us that is 

[Forrest]

2 minutes ago, jb102 said:

Hoo dat?

 

I think the one on the left is Lawrence Shankland.  Not ITK, but I heard a rumour we were interested in him.

 

[Ricardo Quaresma]

3 minutes ago, jb102 said:

Hoo dat?

 

It's peebles Jambo

[AllyjamboDerbyshire]

Just now, Ricardo Quaresma said:

 

Yes, I know all that, although it was referred to as fact

 

It's not worth thinking about, or writing about

 

It should not have been posted before considering the comeback

 

Like I stated before, I would not post it, especially with that anomaly

Not sure anyone stated it was 'fact', just that it was interesting. Statistics, though, are in themselves based on fact, assuming the figures put together are accurate, and we've no evidence to show that that is not the case here. To my mind it is possible that the 'stato' putting together Rowles heading stats was treating headers won in a different way from those putting the SPL stats together, which could skew them quite a bit, and that is why we will have had him watched, live and by video, before any decision was made. His heading stats (if Savage etc did see these shown here) would have flagged up an area of concern which, no doubt, has proved to be of less concern than the stats might suggest.

 

As I said previously, if these stats had shown Rowles headers won to be up there with the best, then no one would be questioning them, and certainly not slating the original poster of them for putting them up.

[The White Cockade]

The Shankland signing is like the documentary I’ve just watched Searching for Sugar Man!

😂😂😂

[Doc Rob]

23 minutes ago, Chong said:

Gotta think if he did consider Scottish football to progress his career it would only be at Rangers and probably even only them if they get Champions League. 

You could argue that Hearts might be a good fit for Gilmour right now, but there’s no chance of it happening. Neither the player nor his club will rate anyone in Scotland who isn’t one of the OF. Shame, but there it is.

[151]

Come on Hearts get it announced.

 

I have a good feeling he will score loads of goals - we create a hell of a lot of clear scoring chances especially at home. There was complaints of Boyce missing sitters at least 10 different matches on here last season. 

 

Boyce and Shankland being fed from McKay, Forrest and Grant.