Should Scotland be an independent country?

[Pasquale for King]

24 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Reliance on someone else would be a negative for some people, but a positive for others.  The UK has bigger debt, for example, but it also has bigger scope for raising revenue. 

The U.K. borrowed a lot of money against future oil revenues, Scotland would be able to borrow against its future revenues also. 
We can do what every other country does. 

[Pasquale for King]

1 minute ago, jack D and coke said:

Can I just throw in the point that say for arguments sake we left the union and this rejoining nonsense. Does the rUK then get any say or it’s all about us again? We’ve just decided we tried leaving them thought na that’s no very good we liked it better so we’re coming back now? 

The rUK will be begging the EU to let them back in by then. 

[Pap]

We will become the worlds poorest country if we become independant.

[jack D and coke]

Just now, Pasquale for King said:

The rUK will be begging the EU to let them back in by then. 

I don’t know how it’s going to work out nobody does but this notion that the No side can then just decide to rejoin the uk is frankly hilarious and shows up the lack of thinking between being in the uk and the EU for example. 
We’ve been told forever that England shoves money up our arse, we leave and then we’re just going to rejoin without them having any say?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

The rUK will be begging the EU to let them back in by then. 

No it won't.

 

Far more likely is that a future UK (rUK) joins EFTA, which restores single market access (it also restores freedom of movement which might reduce some labour shortages).

[jack D and coke]

1 minute ago, Pap said:

We will become the worlds poorest country if we become independant.

 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

8 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

The U.K. borrowed a lot of money against future oil revenues, Scotland would be able to borrow against its future revenues also. 
We can do what every other country does. 

Depends what you are borrowing in.

 

Own currency - yes, in theory (practical limits)

Someone else's currency - Not so much

[Pasquale for King]

A good explanation of why food banks are so widely used. https://m.facebook.com/1655876208/posts/10224032249308134/?d=n

[Norm]

8 minutes ago, Pap said:

We will become the worlds poorest country if we become independant.

Hyperbolic pish

[manaliveits105]

7 hours ago, pablo said:

 

[pablo]

@manaliveits105 Quite.

 

Those polls show that most people don't want a referendum next year, that there's no majority for secession and that the constitution is way down the list of priorities for people.

 

This drip feeding of stuff is to keep the more rabid nationalists on side for as long as possible. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

She won't make a formal request in time to have one to the timeline she's promised, and there's no incentive for the UK to grant it.

 

It's over.

[Unknown user]

5 hours ago, Pap said:

We will become the worlds poorest country if we become independant.

 

Don't forget too wee and too stupid

[Unknown user]

5 hours ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

Depends what you are borrowing in.

 

Own currency - yes, in theory (practical limits)

Someone else's currency - Not so much

 

Sorry, I'm not with you, why couldn't we use the futures market like everyone else?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

18 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Sorry, I'm not with you, why couldn't we use the futures market like everyone else?

Why would any government be using the futures market?

 

Governments sell debt using gilts which pay a coupon and pay lower rates for it than commercial rates, the lower rate being due to being able to apply taxes to pay the coupons. Governments could also "print money" to fund their debts as a sovereign currency. The latter option isn't available to those governments who don't have their own sovereign currency.

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

Why would any government be using the futures market?

 

Governments sell debt using gilts which pay a coupon and pay lower rates for it than commercial rates, the lower rate being due to being able to apply taxes to pay the coupons. Governments could also "print money" to fund their debts as a sovereign currency. The latter option isn't available to those governments who don't have their own sovereign currency.

 

The UK uses the futures markets

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

21 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

The UK uses the futures markets

For what precisely?

[Unknown user]

13 minutes ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

For what precisely?

Seriously? 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

19 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Seriously? 

Yes, seriously.

 

The vast majority of UK government debt is handled through the Debt Management Office which effectively generates the funds for day-to-day spending.

 

https://www.dmo.gov.uk/

 

So, precisely why?

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

Yes, seriously.

 

The vast majority of UK government debt is handled through the Debt Management Office which effectively generates the funds for day-to-day spending.

 

https://www.dmo.gov.uk/

 

So, precisely why?

Selling oil futures according to what I was listening to the other day, I wouldn't claim to be an expert, I thought you were. We also buy oil futures, as do the oil companies, which is why they say we're paying so much for petrol - we're paying future prices.

If you want more you'll need to look it up.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

Selling oil futures according to what I was listening to the other day, I wouldn't claim to be an expert, I thought you were. We also buy oil futures, as do the oil companies, which is why they say we're paying so much for petrol - we're paying future prices.

If you want more you'll need to look it up.

The point being that you are effectively saying that oil trading will fund Scottish government spending. Simply put - it won't.

[Unknown user]

7 minutes ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

The point being that you are effectively saying that oil trading will fund Scottish government spending. Simply put - it won't.

 

I'm not saying anything like that, I'm asking why Scotland wouldn't be able to take the same steps as the UK government re futures.

 

You asked why any government would be using the futures market, so no offence, but I'm not taking you as an authority on this one.

[Ainsley Harriott]

Do we actually think Indy Ref2 will happen next year? I don't 

[Harry Potter]

Wheres the 25 million coming from, 

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

Wheres the 25 million coming from, 

Just put it on Westminster expenses

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

Wheres the 25 million coming from, 

Seriously though, come on now, 25 million!

Westminster's refurb was 12 BILLION last I heard, Scotland's share of that would be about a billion, 40 times 25 million.

 

Where's that coming from?

 

Can we afford not to spend £25 million?

[Unknown user]

13 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Govts fund their borrowing through the use of bonds. Well the vast, majority are some other sources of borrowing and income but let’s keep this simple. 
 

These bonds can and are traded on the futures market. This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s done by any govt, as it’s a markets and anyones free to trade. Predominately bonds are purchased directly as Geoff provided link for. 
 

Having a central bank and controlling your own currency provides huge economic levers. Not least in terms of borrowing. You don’t have the same mechanism if your using a currency that you aren’t in a political or economical union with. QE bring the most obvious due to COVID crisis. 
 

Govts trading in oil futures ( I’m not sure that’s what you mean and suspect something is being lost in translation), is about hedging against price increases and the likes. That’s why oil companies would do it. It’s not funding govt borrowing per se though occasionally like any derivative trading it should be profitable and would be a bye product. Without hearing article it sounds like your possibly conflating issues or I’m completely misunderstanding. 
 

None of the above is a for or against independence tbh.  Just trying to provide a bit of clarity. 
 

If Scotland was to be independent it would make sense to have own central bank and currency. It would be the sensible thing to do from an economic point of view, unless the SNP think Scotland is too poor or too wee🤷🏻‍♂️ 
 

Arguments about the use of GBP seems built on sentimentality rather than practicality to me. Bear over there stuff. 
 

Albeit the fact the snp still don’t seem to have answered a fairly simple question amazes me. Though I think that’s probably more to do with concern over impact on votes if no GBP, than not being able to answer it. 
 

Anyway strange, very much like this thread. 
 

 

I'm not talking about bonds, as you say those are traded by third parties. I'd buy some UK debt if it was more reliable. And I had some money...

I listen to a lot of sober current affairs just now so I couldn't even tell you who it was, probably radio 4, but they were on about the UK government buying and selling oil futures. Like I say, I don't know much more about that, but the UK certainly trades on markets. It sounds less significant than I thought though 

 

That aside, the guy who started this said the UK borrows against the future production of oil and Scotland could too - I'm still not clear why Geoff says we couldn't.

If I'm wrong (it happens!), and borrowing against future production isn't selling a future, then why could Scotland not borrow against future production as the UK does?

[Boab]

I'll vote yes like the last time but I feel it's doomed to failure tbh.

They won't grant a section 30 so it will invoke all sorts of legal challenges.

That shit show will piss off an already struggling electorate with the financial implications it will incur.

Add in the predictable scaremongering that will raise it's head, like the last time, and the vote will be a no.

Hope I'm wrong but that's how I see it being played out.

[Unknown user]

Just now, Boab said:

I'll vote yes like the last time but I feel it's doomed to failure tbh.

They won't grant a section 30 so it will invoke all sorts of legal challenges.

That shit show will piss off an already struggling electorate with the financial implications it will incur.

Add in the predictable scaremongering that will raise it's head, like the last time, and the vote will be a no.

Hope I'm wrong but that's how I see it being played out.

It's maybe a move, the referendum permission question has to be asked to be refused, to then be used as a rallying call.

[Boab]

4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

It's maybe a move, the referendum permission question has to be asked to be refused, to then be used as a rallying call.

Yea, I'm sure it will be.

Will the electorate be swayed or pissed off with a protracted legal fight ?

I'd say the latter.

[The Real Maroonblood]

30 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Just put it on Westminster expenses

 

10 minutes ago, Boab said:

I'll vote yes like the last time but I feel it's doomed to failure tbh.

They won't grant a section 30 so it will invoke all sorts of legal challenges.

That shit show will piss off an already struggling electorate with the financial implications it will incur.

Add in the predictable scaremongering that will raise it's head, like the last time, and the vote will be a no.

Hope I'm wrong but that's how I see it being played out.

That’s fair comment.

Too soon in my opinion.

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, Boab said:

Yea, I'm sure it will be.

Will the electorate be swayed or pissed off with a protracted legal fight ?

I'd say the latter.

Hard to say, but it's not really about the electorate. Most people know how they'd vote, I suppose the only people who really matter are those who can be convinced.

[Harry Potter]

37 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Seriously though, come on now, 25 million!

Westminster's refurb was 12 BILLION last I heard, Scotland's share of that would be about a billion, 40 times 25 million.

 

Where's that coming from?

 

Can we afford not to spend £25 million?

better spent on folk to feed their bairns, i would imagine poverty is bad the now with inflated shop prices, just my opinion Smithee.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

 

I'm not saying anything like that, I'm asking why Scotland wouldn't be able to take the same steps as the UK government re futures.

 

You asked why any government would be using the futures market, so no offence, but I'm not taking you as an authority on this one.

Cool

[Ray Gin]

7 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

better spent on folk to feed their bairns, i would imagine poverty is bad the now with inflated shop prices, just my opinion Smithee.

 

Everyone in the Scotland can get just under £5 to feed themselves for £25 million. Not going to go very far to solve poverty, is it?

[Unknown user]

12 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

better spent on folk to feed their bairns, i would imagine poverty is bad the now with inflated shop prices, just my opinion Smithee.

You reckon that'll happen if we don't do this?

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Everyone in the Scotland can get just under £5 to feed themselves for £25 million. Not going to go very far to solve poverty, is it?

That's 17 meals at 30p per meal!

[Konrad von Carstein]

[Unknown user]

7 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I think your definitely conflating a couple of issues or talking at cross purposes 
 

Govt trading on the bond markets is effectively how the govt borrows money from the financial markets. 
 

Govts trading in oil futures market is nothing to do with the govts borrowing. As I said in my previous post that is about hedging against price fluctuation. 
 

They are two very different things. 
 

I'm not even sure what your trying to ask with your final para. I can't speak for @Geoff Kilpatrick 

 

Scotland could borrow the same as any other country. What part oil plays in that is a distraction to be honest. Your borrowing against more than just oil or a single asset it’s the economy/nation as a whole. If you don't have your own currency and central bank it's becomes more challenging, albeit not impossible.
 

If we had no oil we could still borrow, it’s not oil or bust. Don’t get me wrong it’s nice to have but I’m terms of Indy I don’t get why it’s such a talking point especially in a climate where we are looking to phase it out. 

 

I've said it before on this thread. It's more about the amount of borrowing your doing as opposed to the cost of borrowing. 
 

Trading oil futures isn’t about borrowing its about hedging, The borrowing comes via bonds which is little more than a promissory note. Your not borrowing against a specific asset like morgating your house. Hedging is probably best seen as mechanism around borrowing as opposed to actual borrowing. Risk management if you like. 

Govts trade is also sorts of financial markets for a variety of reasons, when your borrowing large some it’s good to ‘influence’ certain markets to get conditions that are favourable. Bonds are where the borrowing is done though. 

 

Apologies the post is a bit disjointed trying to do three things at once and currently failing in all 

 

No worries. It comes down to this, conversation wise. 

 

9 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

The U.K. borrowed a lot of money against future oil revenues, Scotland would be able to borrow against its future revenues also. 
We can do what every other country does. 

 

8 hours ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

Depends what you are borrowing in.

 

Own currency - yes, in theory (practical limits)

Someone else's currency - Not so much

 

If the premise is true, which Geoff seems to accept, why could Scotland not do the same?

 

Everything else is probably me muddying the water. Like I say I'm no expert, I worked in asset finance not this stuff.

[Japan Jambo]

11 hours ago, jonesy said:

Thanks man. I know what it was like to be an ardent yes voter, and how inconceivable it was that any true Scot could consider voting no. My own views have changed in that I no longer see Holyrood as a salvation. In fact, I just see more of the same, hence the hesitancy. Now, I just see a fair number of people desperate for something to change but without knowing what that change is likely to result in. It’s all very reminiscent of how people living in shitholes the length and breadth of England seemed to feel in the lead up to Brexit. 

 

👍 Discussion needs to move on from Tories bad to this is the plan and why we think it will work.

[Unknown user]

11 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

👍 Discussion needs to move on from Tories bad to this is the plan and why we think it will work.

 

There's no reason Tories bad shouldn't be brought up all the time, it's relevant as hell, it's the reality of the alternative.

 

I understand why supporters of the union would prefer to point things in other directions though!

[Dazo]

2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

There's no reason Tories bad shouldn't be brought up all the time, it's relevant as hell, it's the reality of the alternative.

 

I understand why supporters of the union would prefer to point things in other directions though!

The train of thought that will continually stop independence happening. 

[manaliveits105]

27 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

👍 Discussion needs to move on from Tories bad to this is the plan and why we think it will work.

They don’t really have one which has always been the problem 

[Japan Jambo]

12 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

There's no reason Tories bad shouldn't be brought up all the time, it's relevant as hell, it's the reality of the alternative.

 

I understand why supporters of the union would prefer to point things in other directions though!

 

It's you that's deflecting Smithee - why is it so difficult to lay out the plan? Does the empress have no clothes?

 

You can blame everyone else for your woes all you wish but if you want to eat with the grown ups you will need to take responsibility for your own actions.

 

2 hours ago, Smithee said:

Just put it on Westminster expenses

 

My friend will pay - FFS it's like asking dad for bus fare so that you can run away. Why not crowdfund it seeing as how there is an overwhelming demand for it?

Edited June 15, 2022 by Japan Jambo

[Harry Potter]

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Everyone in the Scotland can get just under £5 to feed themselves for £25 million. Not going to go very far to solve poverty, is it?

few tins o beans for a fiver, anyway you have based that on every person in scotland.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

It's you that's deflecting Smithee - why is it so difficult to lay out the plan? Does the empress have no clothes?

 

You can blame everyone else for your woes all you wish but if you want to eat with the grown ups you will need to take responsibility for your own actions.

 

 

My friend will pay - FFS it's like asking dad for bus fare so that you can run away.

 

I'm not deflecting anything, Tories Bad is relevant whether unionists like it or not.

[SuperstarSteve]

10 hours ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

I just don’t see it as any type of priority at the present time. In 2014 I got caught up in it all , like it really mattered . This time I couldn’t give a rats arse about it . No passion about the issue at all . 

Ditto. Woke up in disgust at the country when we voted no last time which was abit OTT to be honest but I was very passionate about the issue. Complete U-turn for me over the last couple years. 
 

 

[Japan Jambo]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Sadly, I think the plan is “Tories are bad”.

 

Was on board with that in 2014, but having a bit more perspective on things now, need to see more than that to convince me that a leap into the unknown is worth it.

 

Well I guess BoJo is keeping up his end of the bargain!

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Like a broken record, Smifito.

Better get used to it

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, SuperstarSteve said:

Ditto. Woke up in disgust at the country when we voted no last time which was abit OTT to be honest but I was very passionate about the issue. Complete U-turn for me over the last couple years. 
 

 

Exactly the same with me . I’m not getting into the whole divisive debate again . I wont shed any tears whichever way it goes next time . 

[Japan Jambo]

2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

I'm not deflecting anything, Tories Bad is relevant whether unionists like it or not.

 

Nor are you advancing the argument one inch.