Afghanistan

[manaliveits105]

Jimmy Krankie and Blackford playing their games demanding UK accept 35000 Afghan refugees - now it’s quite right that we do but where did they pluck that figure from - is too much - is it not enough ? Or just a made up figure to virtue signal and seem relevant again 

[The Real Maroonblood]

22 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Jimmy Krankie and Blackford playing their games demanding UK accept 35000 Afghan refugees - now it’s quite right that we do but where did they pluck that figure from - is too much - is it not enough ? Or just a made up figure to virtue signal and seem relevant again 

[Ulysses]

9 hours ago, Cruyff said:

Zzzzzz Biden supporter.

 

People rarely admit defeat graciously, so I'll take that.  Thanks. 

[Ulysses]

7 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

I would genuinely be surprised if Trump could point to Afghanistan on a world map.

 

He'd be well placed to take part in this thread, so.

[Cruyff]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

People rarely admit defeat graciously, so I'll take that.  Thanks. 

🤣 If it makes you feel better, no bother. 👍

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, Cruyff said:

🤣 If it makes you feel better, no bother. 👍

 

It doesn't.  I'd have thought you could have put up a decent argument instead of bowing out so lazily.  But whatever.

[Cruyff]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

It doesn't.  I'd have thought you could have put up a decent argument instead of bowing out so lazily.  But whatever.

You're right, I could have but I thought it to be a pointless task, seeing you're clearly a partisan Biden supporter. 👍

[Ulysses]

Which is worse for "the West"?

 

This turns into mayhem and bloodletting, and the West gets the blame.

 

Or...

 

The Taliban actually honour their agreement with the U.S. and don't allow Afghanistan to be used to threaten American security, and also bring some stability and security to the country, which the West never achieved.

[Maple Leaf]

8 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

He'd be well placed to take part in this thread, so.

Asia someplace, innit? 

 

[Ulysses]

5 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

You're right, I could have but I thought it to be a pointless task, seeing you're clearly a partisan Biden supporter. 👍

 

Are you 9?

 

 

[Ulysses]

4 minutes ago, Maple Leaf said:

Asia someplace, innit? 

 

 

Hopefully. 

[dobmisterdobster]

14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Which is worse for "the West"?

 

This turns into mayhem and bloodletting, and the West gets the blame.

 

Or...

 

The Taliban actually honour their agreement with the U.S. and don't allow Afghanistan to be used to threaten American security, and also bring some stability and security to the country, which the West never achieved.

 

Stop it mate.

[Cruyff]

14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Are you 9?

 

 

Trump type post. 

[Ulysses]

Just now, Cruyff said:

Trump type post. 

 

I did say he did a good thing in an earlier post on the thread.  Just putting that out there.

 

[Cruyff]

29 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Which is worse for "the West"?

 

This turns into mayhem and bloodletting, and the West gets the blame.

 

Or...

 

The Taliban actually honour their agreement with the U.S. and don't allow Afghanistan to be used to threaten American security, and also bring some stability and security to the country, which the West never achieved.

Highly unlikely. There have been reports already of foreign jihadi fighters in Afghanistan. 

[Ulysses]

8 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Highly unlikely. There have been reports already of foreign jihadi fighters in Afghanistan. 

 

Sources?

[Unknown user]

51 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

He'd be well placed to take part in this thread, so.

 

I know where it is on the map, but pretty much **** all else. I consider myself something of an independent thinker on the subject.

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

I know where it is on the map, but pretty much **** all else. I consider myself something of an independent thinker on the subject.

 

Does that mean you do your own research?

 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Does that mean you do your own research?

 

 

I'm not averse to suggesting it to others, if that counts

[Ulysses]

Just now, Smithee said:

 

I'm not averse to suggesting it to others, if that counts

 

On the other hand, I've no idea what a tracker mortgage is, but I doubt you could get one on a house in Kabul anyway.

[Maple Leaf]

Picking out Afghanistan is easy ..... 

 

[Cruyff]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

Sources?

UN security Council report, June 1st 2021, pp. 12 - 14. 

https://daccess-ods.un.org/TMP/4316179.15630341.html

[Homme]

Do we just support the Northern Alliance forever then? 

 

We supported the Afghan Army for twenty years and they were overrun in twenty days when we upped sticks.

 

Best licking our wounds and never returning again. Oh and take a substantial amount of refugees.

[Ulysses]

51 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

UN security Council report, June 1st 2021, pp. 12 - 14. 

https://daccess-ods.un.org/TMP/4316179.15630341.html

 

"Http Status Code: 404

Reason: File not found or unable to read file"

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Maple Leaf said:

Picking out Afghanistan is easy ..... 

 

 

Not so easy when the map cedes a portion of Afghanistan to either Tajikistan or Pakistan (probably the latter).

[Cruyff]

8 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

"Http Status Code: 404

Reason: File not found or unable to read file"

Apologies. Hopefully this works. unafghan.pdf

 

pp. 12-14, pp. 16-18 and pp. 18-20

Edited August 17, 2021 by Cruyff

[Ulysses]

2 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Apologies. unafghan.pdf

 

 

Looks like an interesting read.

[Cruyff]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

Looks like an interesting read.

You're welcome. 

[Ulysses]

6 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

You're welcome. 

 

Here's the summary - I've highlighted the bits referring to the presence of other groups.

 

Twelfth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2557 (2020) concerning the Taliban and other associated individuals and entities constituting a threat to the peace stability and security of Afghanistan

 

The key development between May 2020 and April 2021 has been the evolution of the peace process in Afghanistan pursuant to the agreement signed in Doha in February 2020 and the stated intention of the United States of America and allied forces to complete their withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 2021. The international community, including a range of Member States, increased engagement during the period under review, with a view to promoting peace in Afghanistan.

It is difficult to predict how this dynamic will play out over the remainder of 2021. The Taliban’s messaging remains uncompromising, and it shows no sign of reducing the level of violence in Afghanistan to facilitate peace negotiations with the Government of Afghanistan and other Afghan stakeholders. The Taliban’s intent appears to be to continue to strengthen its military position as leverage. It believes that it can achieve almost all of its objectives by negotiation or, if necessary, by force. It is reported to be responsible for the great majority of targeted assassinations that have become a feature of the violence in Afghanistan and that appear to be undertaken with the objective of weakening the capacity of the Government and intimidating civil society.

The issue of narcotics in Afghanistan – the production and trafficking of poppy-based drugs and methamphetamine – remains unaddressed as yet in the Afghan peace process. This remains the Taliban’s largest single source of income. It also has a destabilizing and corrupting effect within Afghanistan and contributes significantly to the narcotics challenges facing the wider international community.

A significant part of the leadership of Al-Qaida resides in the Afghanistan and Pakistan border region, alongside Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent. Large numbers of Al-Qaida fighters and other foreign extremist elements aligned with the Taliban are located in various parts of Afghanistan. Al-Qaida continued to suffer attrition during the period under review, with a number of senior figures killed, often alongside Taliban associates while co-located with them. The primary component of the Taliban in dealing with Al-Qaida is the Haqqani Network. Ties between the two groups remain close, based on ideological alignment, relationships forged through common struggle and intermarriage. The Taliban has begun to tighten its control over Al-Qaida by gathering information on foreign terrorist fighters and registering and restricting them. However, it has not made any concessions in this regard that it could not easily and quickly reverse, and it is impossible to assess with confidence that the Taliban will live up to its commitment to suppress any future international threat emanating from Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Al-Qaida and like-minded militants continue to celebrate developments in Afghanistan as a victory for the Taliban’s cause and thus for global radicalism.

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K) remains diminished from its zenith, following successive military setbacks that began in Jowzjan in summer 2018. However, since June 2020, it has had an ambitious new leader, Shahab al-Muhajir (not listed), and it remains active and dangerous, particularly if it is able, by positioning itself as the sole pure rejectionist group in Afghanistan, to recruit disaffected Taliban and other militants to swell its ranks. Member States have varying assessments of the extent of ISIL-K and al-Muhajir’s links with the Haqqani Network. Meanwhile, the Al-Sadiq office is co-located with ISIL-K in Afghanistan, pursuing a regional agenda in Central and South Asia on behalf of the ISIL core.

[Ulysses]

There's a lot more detail in it, but I won't be getting to that in the next short while.

 

So it's a big if, according to the Monitoring Team.  The Taliban have a fair degree of control over both Al-Qaida and ISIS members, but there's no guarantee that they will live up to their commitment to keep the others under control.

 

That's the gamble that Trump took when he cut the deal that gave the Taliban the upper hand, and it's the gamble that Biden is following through with by carrying out the withdrawal as agreed.

 

 

[Ulysses]

19 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

You're welcome. 

 

P.S. thanks for that.  It's interesting in a few respects, even before getting too much into the detail.  It deals with the stuff you mentioned about the presence of other jihadist groups, but it also seems to go into a lot of other stuff about the Taliban's own status and internal politics, as well as the relationships between the Taliban and other players.  It's a lot more thorough than a news report, that's for sure.

[Ulysses]

On 16/08/2021 at 22:41, manaliveits105 said:

Don’t let Michael O’Leary see that !

 

[Ked]

49 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Apologies. Hopefully this works. unafghan.pdf

 

pp. 12-14, pp. 16-18 and pp. 18-20

Good post 

 

[Ked]

3 hours ago, Cruyff said:

Highly unlikely. There have been reports already of foreign jihadi fighters in Afghanistan. 

That seems to be a recurring theme .

 

[Space Mackerel]

This is a decent article.

 

https://www.sarahchayes.org/post/the-ides-of-august

[Governor Tarkin]

6 hours ago, Space Mackerel said:

This is a decent article.

 

https://www.sarahchayes.org/post/the-ides-of-august

 

The parts about propping up internal corruption and the part played by ISI are spot on. Pakistani military intelligence is an active and dangerous enemy.

[pablo]

7 hours ago, Space Mackerel said:

This is a decent article.

 

https://www.sarahchayes.org/post/the-ides-of-august

 

Thanks for posting this. It's a interesting read from someone with first hand experiences. There's something seriously chilling about Pakistan.

[AlimOzturk]

Hearing everywhere that the men fleeing are cowards. You know, they are petrified of being tortured and killed by a superior enemy but they are cowards because they won’t stand and fight. At the same time they are calling for women and children to evacuated. 
 

Children yes. But are women incapable of standing up, getting organised and fighting for their country as well? It’s their rights and freedoms that stand to be oppressed more than anyone. Men are threatening to oppress their human rights. Don’t expect other men to fight to restore them. If men seen women fighting for their rights and dying for them it wouldn’t be long before the world took action to stop this madness

Edited August 18, 2021 by AlimOzturk

[Maroon Sailor]

1 hour ago, pablo said:

 

Thanks for posting this. It's a interesting read from someone with first hand experiences. There's something seriously chilling about Pakistan.

 

Indo-Pakistani war says it all

[doctor jambo]

1 minute ago, AlimOzturk said:

Hearing everywhere that the men fleeing are cowards. You know, they are petrified of being tortured and killed by a superior enemy but they are cowards because they won’t stand and fight. At the same time they are calling for women and children to evacuated. 
 

Children yes. But are women incapable of standing up, getting organised and fighting for their country as well? It’s their rights and freedoms that stand to be oppressed more than anyone. Men are threatening to oppress their human rights. Don’t expect other men to fight to restore them. If men seen women fighting for their rights and dying for them it wouldn’t be long before the world took action to stop this madness

You mean the equal right to be killed for your country?

Never catch on, unless they are allowed a years maternity leave from the military and earlier retirement age……

[Don Dan]

Boris Johnson lives in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks the Taliban will allow people/refugees to leave in future years. 25000 he claims in coming years will be allowed to settle here. 

[redjambo]

10 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Not so easy when the map cedes a portion of Afghanistan to either Tajikistan or Pakistan (probably the latter).

 

Yup, by the angle it looks like they've ceded it to Pakistan.

[The Real Maroonblood]

27 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Boris Johnson lives in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks the Taliban will allow people/refugees to leave in future years. 25000 he claims in coming years will be allowed to settle here. 

This.

[redjambo]

36 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Boris Johnson lives in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks the Taliban will allow people/refugees to leave in future years. 25000 he claims in coming years will be allowed to settle here. 

 

I too thought that when listening to the Taliban spokesman. There was nothing in there, that I heard anyway, saying that folk would have the right to leave the country under the new régime if they wished. On the other hand, if you let those leave who may oppose the régime, as long as it doesn't become a tsunami, you leave a more compliant population behind. One drawback of that approach however is that you then have a mobilised pool of ex-nationals outside the country campaigning for change within the country, as Belarus has found for example. Weighing it all up though, the Taliban may decide in an initial phase to let folk out so that they can get on with governing the country with less need to take punitive actions against those opposing the regime of which news and reports could turn it quickly into a pariah state like Belarus. They've already shown this more pragmatic approach with their announcement of an amnesty, but it remains to be seen how they will react in the face of more defiant opposition to their rule.

[i8hibsh]

Where will they live?

 

Who will pay for them?

 

This shit angres me.  Life really will be free for them.

 

Everything costs money.  From the water we drink, to the toilets we flush, to the bins we fill, to the kids we educate and the health we look after.  

 

We will LITERALLY be funding their entire lives and I for one object to this.

 

I don't go along with the 'we are full' chat as I don't believe we are,  I welcome many immigrants but only if they can offer somehting, share our values and will integrate.  We are 'skint' though - we simply can't afford this.

 

I would not want 1p of my hard earned money going to these refugees.  There is enough of my taxes go to others.  I'm pig sick of it.

 

We are skint!

 

We are approximately 2.5 trillion pounds in debt.

 

To put this into perspective:

 

One million seconds would take up 11 days, 13 hours 46 minutes and 40 seconds.

One billion seconds is a bit over 31 and one-half years

One trillion seconds is slightly over 31,688 years

 

 

[JackLadd]

25k is an insane high number. The US is only taking in that number and it was their show. Johnson has gone soft but when you look at the daily state of Kent coast it's no shock.

[Don Dan]

10 minutes ago, i8hibsh said:

Where will they live?

 

Who will pay for them?

 

This shit angres me.  Life really will be free for them.

 

Everything costs money.  From the water we drink, to the toilets we flush, to the bins we fill, to the kids we educate and the health we look after.  

 

We will LITERALLY be funding their entire lives and I for one object to this.

 

I don't go along with the 'we are full' chat as I don't believe we are,  I welcome many immigrants but only if they can offer somehting, share our values and will integrate.  We are 'skint' though - we simply can't afford this.

 

I would not want 1p of my hard earned money going to these refugees.  There is enough of my taxes go to others.  I'm pig sick of it.

 

We are skint!

 

We are approximately 2.5 trillion pounds in debt.

 

To put this into perspective:

 

One million seconds would take up 11 days, 13 hours 46 minutes and 40 seconds.

One billion seconds is a bit over 31 and one-half years

One trillion seconds is slightly over 31,688 years

 

 

Whilst the numbers you quote are no doubt correct we currently have a void in the workforce left by the idiocy of Brexit. Maybe those desperate to flee the tyranny of the Taliban would relish the chance to work for a living and in doing so contribute to the reduction of the debt and the rebuilding of the economy. 

[Don Dan]

1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

25k is an insane high number. The US is only taking in that number and it was their show. Johnson has gone soft but when you look at the daily state of Kent coast it's no shock.

Johnson knows they will never take that many it’s another con by the CONservatives

[JackLadd]

2 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Johnson knows they will never take that many it’s another con by the CONservatives

 

Will all cost billions but no worse than Nicola giving suffrage to the dingy community for a vote in ref2.  The wee smackheid sister has more sense I bet.

[The Real Maroonblood]

15 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

Will all cost billions but no worse than Nicola giving suffrage to the dingy community for a vote in ref2.  The wee smackheid sister has more sense I bet.