Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[The Mighty Thor]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Weren’t the schools and uni off during the restrictions at least for first couple of weeks? 
 

My kids were off for 2 weeks for Oct break. 
 

Also are uni’s actually having classes? Speaking to my niece, she was saying she’s remote learning and indicated this was pretty much the case for all Uni students now, with some obvious exceptions. 
 

Schools, will understandably be one of the last things to close. Especially under 16’s. 
 

That said, I don’t believe in lockdowns fundentally and believe we are here as a result of poor approach to the pandemic. That said if we are going to take this approach for surpression, I’m warming to the idea of hitting hard and shutting down completely. 
 

It would be usefully if backward tracing was used to understand where this thing is spreading as opposed to the assumption approach we seem to currently taking. 
 

 

There's a bit of the Sherlock Holmes about this.

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. 

SG don't seem to have tumbled to it yet.

Maybe need to burn the restaurants down now as shutting them hasn't worked. 

[GBJambo]

Only move left really is closing schools and unis. Surely universities should be home learning already! 
 

Not much more they can really do restrictions wise. 

[doctor jambo]

10 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

 

Presumably if the average age of death being 82, no Glaswegians have died, as they barely make it into their 50’s

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Presumably if the average age of death being 82, no Glaswegians have died, as they barely make it into their 50’s

Lol ouch ! Maybe they make up the under 60s 

[redjambo]

I have to admit that today's figures are a wee bit depressing. We were doing so well recently in stabilising cases, while that deaths figure is awful. Hopefully it's just a blip.

[GBJambo]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

I have to admit that today's figures are a wee bit depressing. We were doing so well recently in stabilising cases, while that deaths figure is awful. Hopefully it's just a blip.

Isn’t Wednesdays always higher? Think need to look at the week rather than individual days 

[Back to 2005]

8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

I have to admit that today's figures are a wee bit depressing. We were doing so well recently in stabilising cases, while that deaths figure is awful. Hopefully it's just a blip.

It is depressing. There is no way you can defeat a virus so lockdowns are futile. 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, GBJambo said:

Isn’t Wednesdays always higher? Think need to look at the week rather than individual days 

 

Yes, it is. I completely appreciate what you're saying, and I'm usually evangelising the need to look at things over a trend period, but today's figures were just a bit unpleasantly surprising, that's all. You are spot on.

[doctor jambo]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

I have to admit that today's figures are a wee bit depressing. We were doing so well recently in stabilising cases, while that deaths figure is awful. Hopefully it's just a blip.

Thing is, it’s not though.

We lose at least 1 patient per day.

50 out of > 5 million is tiny.

Especially when age/ other conditions / frailty are considered .

Expressed as 50 people died that sounds bad.

Realistically it isn’t .

Scale everything to global

 

”1 million dead” globally

sounds awful.

 

3 million died of malaria last year

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

The trend is your friend. 
 

I suspect it will be a outlier, you will always get outlier when certain circumstances occur. 
 

Death is a delayed metric in reality, and it’s the lead indicators that give a better impression, the trends are relatively positive on that front from what I have seen. 

 

Spot on, LBJ. I guess I'm letting my disappointment that Trump hasn't been shown the door yet roll over into my own personal view on the figures.

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 4 November 2020

Summary

• 1,433 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+434]
• 50 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [+22]
• 94 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+2]
• 1,257 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+3]
• 20,420 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 7.9% of these were positive [-2.4%]

[redjambo]

Per-board per-100,000 case stats for today:

 

Scotland: 26 [+8]

 

Greater Glasgow 51 [+19], Lanarkshire 48 [+17], Ayrshire 24 [-5], Fife 22 [+11], Lothian 18 [+4], Tayside 17 [+5], Forth Valley 11 [+4].

 

Borders 9 [-1], Dumfries & Galloway 7 [=], Grampian 7 [+2], Highland 4 [=], Shetland 4 [=].

 

Orkney & Western Isles: 0.

[Victorian]

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Hospital bed occupancy stands at 84% against 92% this time last year. This information should be made publicly available for context, rather than requiring to be leaked. Hospitals are in crisis every year due to respiratory viruses. The big difference this year is that we are getting a daily commentary on a selective set of figures. And there is a purpose to that, which some of us are now beginning to see through. 

 

The issue is not current capacity,  it is where they're heading unless measures are taken.  An earthworm can understand this concept.  

[Weakened Offender]

55 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Presumably if the average age of death being 82, no Glaswegians have died, as they barely make it into their 50’s

 

No wonder with people like you in medicine. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

19 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

The issue is not current capacity,  it is where they're heading unless measures are taken.  An earthworm can understand this concept.  

Perhaps the earthworm could take over the scientific modelling.   For context, what measures were taken last year when capacity was at 92%??

[Taffin]

1 hour ago, Pasquale for King said:

They don’t, they don’t have the resources to cross check where folk come from. Scottish votes are those cast in this country. 

 

1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

When I used the term "Scottish vote", I was meaning "vote cast in Scotland".

 

So Enzo can't know if his post was true or false.

 

Similarly neither does anyone else I guess though. The cynic in me thinks that's the beauty of making an arbitrary statement like that which can't be proven true, or false 😂

[Victorian]

9 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Perhaps the earthworm could take over the scientific modelling.   For context, what measures were taken last year when capacity was at 92%??

 

Let me check pandemic news at the time in question... oh...

[redjambo]

Today's Lothians per-100,000 case breakdown:

 

West Lothian 33, Midlothian 23, East Lothian 21, City 11.

 

Highest 5: Glasgow City 59, East Dunbartonshire 53, North Lanarkshire 49, Renfrewshire 47, South Lanarkshire 46.

[Nucky Thompson]

1 hour ago, doctor jambo said:

Thing is, it’s not though.

We lose at least 1 patient per day.

50 out of > 5 million is tiny.

Especially when age/ other conditions / frailty are considered .

Expressed as 50 people died that sounds bad.

Realistically it isn’t .

Scale everything to global

 

”1 million dead” globally

sounds awful.

 

3 million died of malaria last year

Any idea what the weekly death rate in care homes was before covid Doc?

 

I know that there has been a few outbreaks in care homes again

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

So Enzo can't know if his post was true or false.

 

Similarly neither does anyone else I guess though. The cynic in me thinks that's the beauty of making an arbitrary statement like that which can't be proven true, or false 😂

 

Enzo meant votes cast in Scotland too, obviously.

 

If you were to talk about Americans voting for Trump in the U.S. Presidential election, you wouldn't be having debates about their place of birth or self-identification, it would be taken that you were talking about folk in the U.S. who were eligible to vote and who did so. The same applies for any election.

[Don Dan]

I received this email from a good friend today. It gives a wee insight into what’s going on in hospital. You wonder just how bad the situation is in hospitals just now. 
 

Hi Dannie, Would appreciate a wee prayer. Just out of the Royal. Suffered my 6th Heart attack. Professor sent me home as it was too dangerous to transfer me to the cardiology wards, 9 patients there have covid. I've to go back again depending on the situation in a months time to have another angioplasty to find out what is going on. 

[Taffin]

12 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Enzo meant votes cast in Scotland too, obviously.

 

If you were to talk about Americans voting for Trump in the U.S. Presidential election, you wouldn't be having debates about their place of birth or self-identification, it would be taken that you were talking about folk in the U.S. who were eligible to vote and who did so. The same applies for any election.

 

Enzo said Scots. Not Scotland. I certainly didn't find it obvious. There's Scots all over the UK outside of Scotland who were eligible to vote in both the election and the referendum he was referring to. I'm one of them. There's also lots of non-Scots in Scotland who were also eligible to vote.

 

I'm also not debating anything. He posted an statement with not facts to back it up and was told he was wrong. I'm just asking how people know he's wrong. Of course if he meant voters residing in Scotland then it's a moot point but that isn't what he wrote. Sorry.

 

Edit: I'm entirely indifferent whether he's right or wrong btw. I've always assumed I've been voting as a British citizen in UK elections and referendums but thought maybe it was tied to my actual nationality hence why I asked. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Taffin

[Taffin]

2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Enzo said Scots. Not Scotland. I certainly didn't find it obvious. There's Scots all over the UK outside of Scotland who were eligible to vote in both the election and the referendum he was referring to. I'm one of them. There's also lots of non-Scots in Scotland who were also eligible to vote. It's not really comparable to the American example. 

 

I'm also not debating anything. He posted an statement with not facts to back it up and was told he was wrong. I'm just asking how people know he's wrong. Of course if he meant voters residing in Scotland then it's a moot point but that isn't what he won't. Sorry.

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Taffin
Double post, new button placement again 🤦‍♂️

[doctor jambo]

6 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

I received this email from a good friend today. It gives a wee insight into what’s going on in hospital. You wonder just how bad the situation is in hospitals just now. 
 

Hi Dannie, Would appreciate a wee prayer. Just out of the Royal. Suffered my 6th Heart attack. Professor sent me home as it was too dangerous to transfer me to the cardiology wards, 9 patients there have covid. I've to go back again depending on the situation in a months time to have another angioplasty to find out what is going on. 

Quite simply all Covid patients should be in the giant Covid barn in Glasgow 

[doctor jambo]

22 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Any idea what the weekly death rate in care homes was before covid Doc?

 

I know that there has been a few outbreaks in care homes again

I don’t know, because nobody gave a shit.

not about death rates , or the inhumanity of caging humans until they die, or the general concept of nursing homes.

So poor thought of that govt ditched them into private sector to save money.

Now suddenly they give a balls?

Half the death stats are form nursing homes- they need those numbers to keep the numbers interesting, but don’t honestly give a toss about them pre pandemic, and won’t post pandemic.

Just watch- after all this the talk will move to euthanasia , for the very patients the country is trying to save at the moment .

 

 

[Governor Tarkin]

18 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Aye, but they're wee brown and black babies. Nothing to worry about.

 

This.

[jambos are go!]

What I can't understand is how with an apparently well working track and trace system in Scotland and high compliance with the rules the virus was able to take off from elimination levels.

[Beni]

1 hour ago, doctor jambo said:

3 million died of malaria last year

 

 

Quite a jump from the WHO estimate for 2018, where did you get your figure from?

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-malaria-report-2019

 

Malaria deaths

• In 2018, there were an estimated 405 000 deaths from malaria globally, compared with 416 000 estimated deaths in 2017, and 585 000 in 2010.

 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, doctor jambo said:

Thing is, it’s not though.

We lose at least 1 patient per day.

50 out of > 5 million is tiny.

Especially when age/ other conditions / frailty are considered .

Expressed as 50 people died that sounds bad.

Realistically it isn’t .

Scale everything to global

 

”1 million dead” globally

sounds awful.

 

3 million died of malaria last year

 

that highly qualified highly respected professor lady from a few pages back (would be classed as a flat-earther here) raised the potential of 130 million dead globally due to the effects of lockdown on global starvation

 

50 tho

 

 

[Robbofan99]

36 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Quite simply all Covid patients should be in the giant Covid barn in Glasgow 

My mate who has suspected skin cancer on a mole was updating me. He contacted the doc and then the dermatology clinic for an update. Hes been told he wont be seen for up till 14 weeks due to waiting lists due to covid.  Absolutely shocking.  Hes told me hes just going private and has appointment in two weeks time. What about the literally poor people who cant afford to do this?  The NHS responses/ waiting list during this shitstorm   will be one of the main scandals of any future enquiries. 

[OBE]

47 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Aye, but they're wee brown and black babies. Nothing to worry about.

 

Mosquito's got a fondness just for b & b babies (3 mill)?

Edited November 4, 2020 by OBE

[Enzo Chiefo]

50 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Quite simply all Covid patients should be in the giant Covid barn in Glasgow 

I've never understood why the Nightingale hospitals were not the first port of call for Covid. Use them as they used fever hospitals back in the 1950s. Keep the other hospitals free of Covid patients and let them treat the vast majority of patients who do not have Covid. Prioritising Covid, and mythical Covid patients,  ahead of other patients who have an equal right to treatment,  is scandalous.

[doctor jambo]

26 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

 

Quite a jump from the WHO estimate for 2018, where did you get your figure from?

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-malaria-report-2019

 

Malaria deaths

• In 2018, there were an estimated 405 000 deaths from malaria globally, compared with 416 000 estimated deaths in 2017, and 585 000 in 2010.

 

 

Who states 350000+ in subsaharan Africa alone

global estimate 1-3 million

 

pandemic clamp downs predicted to double the deaths is Africa from malaria due to interruptions to the health programmes

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

Let me check pandemic news at the time in question... oh...

There would be a flu pandemic if I'm not mistaken.  But a new, shiny virus should not be prioritised over the dull, boring old illnesses that have been around for years. That's the point.

[frankblack]

4 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I've never understood why the Nightingale hospitals were not the first port of call for Covid. Use them as they used fever hospitals back in the 1950s. Keep the other hospitals free of Covid patients and let them treat the vast majority of patients who do not have Covid. Prioritising Covid, and mythical Covid patients,  ahead of other patients who have an equal right to treatment,  is scandalous.

 

What is the expense and cost in taking ambulences out of circulation in getting people from all over the country to the SECC?

[Enzo Chiefo]

18 minutes ago, Robbofan99 said:

My mate who has suspected skin cancer on a mole was updating me. He contacted the doc and then the dermatology clinic for an update. Hes been told he wont be seen for up till 14 weeks due to waiting lists due to covid.  Absolutely shocking.  Hes told me hes just going private and has appointment in two weeks time. What about the literally poor people who cant afford to do this?  The NHS responses/ waiting list during this shitstorm   will be one of the main scandals of any future enquiries. 

It is a scandal. A family friend, who has been waiting for months and months in pain, was due to go into the Jubilee for a long awaited knee replacement tomorrow.  They phoned today to cancel.  Utterly disgraceful. 

[graygo]

6 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I've never understood why the Nightingale hospitals were not the first port of call for Covid. Use them as they used fever hospitals back in the 1950s. Keep the other hospitals free of Covid patients and let them treat the vast majority of patients who do not have Covid. Prioritising Covid, and mythical Covid patients,  ahead of other patients who have an equal right to treatment,  is scandalous.

 

One problem is that they can't 100% say whether anyone has Covid-19 when an ambulance is called, they can't even be sure after a test for the bloody thing.

[OBE]

7 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

There would be a flu pandemic if I'm not mistaken.  But a new, shiny virus should not be prioritised over the dull, boring old illnesses that have been around for years. That's the point.

 

End or Epi, but certainly no Pan...

[Enzo Chiefo]

Just now, OBE said:

 

End or Epi, but certainly no Pan...

Does that make it worse?

[Enzo Chiefo]

11 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

What is the expense and cost in taking ambulences out of circulation in getting people from all over the country to the SECC?

Yes, fair point but certainly Glasgow patients, which account for the majority, should be directed there.

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, Taffin said:

 

 

So Enzo can't know if his post was true or false.

 

Similarly neither does anyone else I guess though. The cynic in me thinks that's the beauty of making an arbitrary statement like that which can't be proven true, or false 😂

Indeed. 

[Robbofan99]

17 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

It is a scandal. A family friend, who has been waiting for months and months in pain, was due to go into the Jubilee for a long awaited knee replacement tomorrow.  They phoned today to cancel.  Utterly disgraceful. 

It really is. He couldn't believe when the person he spoke to almost nonchalantly said "14 weeks or so".  This kind of illness needs to be seen urgently surely ? Hes happy he is going private but not so happy he has to pay but better being safe than sorry. I do wonder what the stats are for cancelled consultations as well as ops etc. ? 

[Robbofan99]

9 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, fair point but certainly Glasgow patients, which account for the majority, should be directed there.

We have money to throw about apparently with continued lockdowns and tiers so why not re jig the finances and concentrate on all health issues . 

[Robbofan99]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

He should have gone into a supermarket without a mask on. According to some he'd have caught Covid within seconds, and they could have done the knee for him while he was in.

A diabolical plan but it would work !! 

[JudyJudyJudy]

24 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

It is a scandal. A family friend, who has been waiting for months and months in pain, was due to go into the Jubilee for a long awaited knee replacement tomorrow.  They phoned today to cancel.  Utterly disgraceful. 

Disgraceful as you rightly say. Why dont they just open up the Nightingale and use them ? It makes so much sense ? I know a few people who have had consultations cancelled etc. Apparently Bupa etc are doing a roaring trade with people signing up but unfortunately for those signing up they wont deal with any current or chronic conditions so it probably rules out a vast majority of people who may try and get health care from them and other private health insurers.  

[Victorian]

25 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

There would be a flu pandemic if I'm not mistaken.  But a new, shiny virus should not be prioritised over the dull, boring old illnesses that have been around for years. That's the point.

 

That's not the point at all.  This year we have everything we had in previous years PLUS the new thing,  which is adding much more demand on the NHS on top of dealing with everything else.  Severe illness from covid in hospitals has increased 5 fold over a month and that's while we've been under suppression measures.  We need to hope that sort of trajectory doesn't continue on the same trend otherwise there's going to be a really bad situation.  The existing measures and the general lockdown in England are absolutely necessary.  It needs suppressed very quickly or a large percentage of covid cases will not receive any treatment.  

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

 

An interesting graph James. Funny how those couple of diddy scientists that they wheel out never show them.

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Disgraceful as you rightly say. Why dont they just open up the Nightingale and use them ? It makes so much sense ? I know a few people who have had consultations cancelled etc. Apparently Bupa etc are doing a roaring trade with people signing up but unfortunately for those signing up they wont deal with any current or chronic conditions so it probably rules out a vast majority of people who may try and get health care from them and other private health insurers.  

 

Human resources.  

 

They don't have enough people to staff the hospitals plus the Nightingales to much degree.  

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

An interesting graph James. Funny how those couple of diddy scientists that they wheel out never show them.

Thats true  

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

Human resources.  

 

They don't have enough people to staff the hospitals plus the Nightingales to much degree.  

Yes i kinda thought that might be an issue.