Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[jambo89]

57 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

They have one ward, ward 25 for covid patients in the whole hospital.

Just like the overrun ICU wards in Manchester which are at the exact same level as 2019.

I suppose, twisting the headline figures keeps the gullible on their toes

 

A friend of mine is in management at St. John’s hospital. They had capacity for 200 Covid beds in March. That was after converting the part of the operating theatres to Covid wards. There’s currently 25 people in ICU.

 

fwiw she would fall on your “side” of the debate regarding the whole of this pandemic i.e. anti-lockdown / sceptical of the science etc. But she has said that the past 2 weeks have been busier than than the whole of March and April. 
 

so probably not scaremongering as you put it! 

[OmiyaHearts]

Just now, graygo said:

 

Surely these house parties will have social distancing, everyone seated, wearing a mask if they need to use the toilet and will leave their contact details for track and trace just in case.

 

Oh wait, no, that's the pubs that were doing that wasn't it?

Almost like they were hoping for something like this to happen, to justify increased lockdown measures...

 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

U.K. challenge trials approved according to radio, this means will be given a covid vaccine and then purposely exposed to it to see if it works. 

 

About 90 lowest risk volunteers involved.  It will give good,  quick data but naturally cannot provide data for vaccine use in higher risk people.  Good step though.

[graygo]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

That's a possibility and makes a lot of sense.  What it isn't is a factor that can be relied upon in order to plan and forecast.  No sensible health professional would assume such a thing and anticipate accordingly.

 

Why not? Like you say, it makes sense and it's as sure fire a prediction as what they are predicting with Covid. The reason wouldn't be that it doesn't advance their pleas for more money would it?

[Francis Albert]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

U.K. challenge trials approved according to radio, this means will be given a covid vaccine and then purposely exposed to it to see if it works. 

If its the same thing I read about this morning it is a trial where 100 volunteers will be deliberately exposed to the virus in a controlled experiment to establish the level of risk of different doses of the virus, not a test of a vaccine as such but rather a step towards developing a vaccine. May next year was the target or forecast date quoted for the availability of a vaccine itself.

[Taffin]

4 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Why not? Like you say, it makes sense and it's as sure fire a prediction as what they are predicting with Covid. The reason wouldn't be that it doesn't advance their pleas for more money would it?

 

They don't appear to have planned ahead based on their covid predictions either in fairness.

[Cruyff]

Apparently COVID-19 will be endemic, just like the Flu and that the vaccine isn't a cure to sterilise the virus but will only lessen or, weaken its impact on the immune system. 

 

Fantastic stuff. Cheers China, ya dirty *******s. 

[graygo]

5 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

They don't appear to have planned ahead based on their covid predictions either in fairness.

 

So an obvious flaw in this statement - "No sensible health professional would assume such a thing and anticipate accordingly."

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Why not? Like you say, it makes sense and it's as sure fire a prediction as what they are predicting with Covid. The reason wouldn't be that it doesn't advance their pleas for more money would it?

 

It's a factor that can be considered but never relied upon.  How does anyone know that it will happen?  Like most things,  planning will be done to anticipate 'worst case' or reasonable forecasts.  They wont assume flu will be lower because of a theory.

[Taffin]

3 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

So an obvious flaw in this statement - "No sensible health professional would assume such a thing and anticipate accordingly."

 

Not sure. I assumed they'd plan on predictions like, there will be an increase again of Covid patients but a reduction of other patients based on earlier this year, how do we scale our resources accordingly.

 

The article linked makes it sound like they've  waited until now and realised that approaching it with the same set up as earlier in the year isn't going to cut it. I'm sure there is a lot more to it but I don't accept the lack of money being justification as the government have thrown buckets of money at this. If they've avoided in investing in capacity increases over the last 6 months then they've been sleeping on the job imo. To be clear I'm criticising the government here, not the NHS staff, as I'm sure they will have asked for additional funds to scale their operation accordingly and for whatever reason it hasn't happened, and I don't think that's good enough.

 

If they've planned for the worst case and decided that the correct plan is the same single ward as before, then something has gone awry.

[ri Alban]

40 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

You been tested for Covid mate?

Yeah. The Wife has been coughing constantly and I have a cough in the post and a wee flu like feeling. It's probably just a cold, or something, but I can't take any chances with a site full of bodies, bud. 

Gies me a wee holiday I was badly needing. 

 

 

Same swab on tonsils and then up the beak is a bit manky. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by ri Alban

[coconut doug]

13 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Regardless of how you twist it, 46% of older patients who were in hospital, back then, were infected in hospital.  A truly shocking stat. Of course,, like all surveys, ONS, whatever, it is based on a sample, but across several hospitals. That was the figure I quoted on Sat. So, when you hear the FM read out the number of hospital admissions each day, be aware that a large percentage will have been infected after admission. 

If you've got any evidence to prove high infection rates in hospitality, then I would be delighted to see it. The govt could use back tracing to get a more accurate picture but then it would prove their measures to be useless. Other govts around Europe also opened nightclubs, for example, so not quite an accurate comparison.  I suspect though that they do not have any evidence of transmission either and are just wanting to be seen to do something, anything.

 

I'm not twisting anything i'm posting direct quotes from you and the study you linked. This one   https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0036933020962891

 

You’ve got some cheek accusing me of twisting. Here’s your original statement Back in March/April 50% of over 65s that caught the virus, were infected in hospital." I notice you have now changed that to 46% of older patients who were in hospital, back then, were infected in hospital.  Both statements are complete rubbish though, you have merely compounded your error. The study was for people of aged 56 to 99 and not just over 65s.It's not a survey either.

 

    Your notion that this is a “truly shocking” statistic i.e. 46% of older patients who were in hospital, back then, were infected in hospital is wrong. It’s not true. How do I know it’s not true? One reason is because the people carrying out the survey told me it wasn’t true.  A quote from the report  Our patient cohort represents some of the frailest members of society, at least 95% of whom had a significant co-morbidity. It is therefore not representative of all older people and must be contextualised as such

 

You are asking me if I have any statistics to show high infection rates in hospitals and I already told you that as far as I am aware these figures do not exist. That is another reason I challenged your figures.

 

Your attempt to enlighten us with this statement  So, when you hear the FM read out the number of hospital admissions each day, be aware that a large percentage will have been infected after admission.  is genuinely baffling. I wonder if you understand that the figures read out each day by the FM are for admissions of people who already have Covid. Presumably you think that 46% will catch it again in hospital. Maybe the FM is not such a good communicator after all or maybe you should listen a bit more closely to what she says.

[Nucky Thompson]

44 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Hilarious.  I was listening to the real world workers.  Clinicians.  Unless of course the BBC and wee Krankie are forcing them to say these things.

I was meaning in general not necessarily the link you posted.

 

Oh and I wasn't suggesting you were gullible

[coconut doug]

15 hours ago, SE16 3LN said:

If you can't understand what stay alert means you really shouldn't be in Politics, or anything that requires using your brain. If you believe the SG isn't using the virus as a tool I feel for you. Its off the scale on the gullible spectrum. The resources referred to the SG's Pandemic and Emergency plan. I spelt it out for you so why are you wondering.

 

If you read my link it was the Tory Covid spokesman who couldn't explain on television what the stay alert message entailed. I'm sure he understood it but couldn't remember it that was why there was widespread criticism from politicians scientists and others about the campaign.

I'd like to know what the FM is using the the virus as a tool for. Demonstrating that she and her party are competent and on top of the issues but then which politicians would not want to do that? Why is she any different? 

You never did tell me what resources the SG didn't have. You could tell us now rather than pretending you have already done so.

[Shanks said no]

1 hour ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

People can retrain in other skills and get different jobs 

 

just like miners back in the day had to

Great to see you back after your sabbatical.

 

 

 

 

 

 

not

[Enzo Chiefo]

23 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

I'm not twisting anything i'm posting direct quotes from you and the study you linked. This one   https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0036933020962891

 

You’ve got some cheek accusing me of twisting. Here’s your original statement Back in March/April 50% of over 65s that caught the virus, were infected in hospital." I notice you have now changed that to 46% of older patients who were in hospital, back then, were infected in hospital.  Both statements are complete rubbish though, you have merely compounded your error. The study was for people of aged 56 to 99 and not just over 65s.It's not a survey either.

 

    Your notion that this is a “truly shocking” statistic i.e. 46% of older patients who were in hospital, back then, were infected in hospital is wrong. It’s not true. How do I know it’s not true? One reason is because the people carrying out the survey told me it wasn’t true.  A quote from the report  Our patient cohort represents some of the frailest members of society, at least 95% of whom had a significant co-morbidity. It is therefore not representative of all older people and must be contextualised as such

 

You are asking me if I have any statistics to show high infection rates in hospitals and I already told you that as far as I am aware these figures do not exist. That is another reason I challenged your figures.

 

Your attempt to enlighten us with this statement  So, when you hear the FM read out the number of hospital admissions each day, be aware that a large percentage will have been infected after admission.  is genuinely baffling. I wonder if you understand that the figures read out each day by the FM are for admissions of people who already have Covid. Presumably you think that 46% will catch it again in hospital. Maybe the FM is not such a good communicator after all or maybe you should listen a bit more closely to what she says.

Sorry, but you are talking absolute nonsense.  The vast majority of all Covid deaths, high 90% or so, have other underlying conditions so it's no shock that this study found the same. I will repeat for the last time and try to rearrange the words into something you may understand, allowing for any pedantic "errors":.  Based on the study carried out, half (OK, 46%) of over 65s (OK 56-99) that were in hospital WITH Covid, caught it IN hospital. Sturgeon refers to "admissions" when in reality, up to half of those may already have been admitted but caught Covid IN hospital. Hope that is clear and closes the matter.

[cheetah]

39 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Yeah. The Wife has been coughing constantly and I have a cough in the post and a wee flu like feeling. It's probably just a cold, or something, but I can't take any chances with a site full of bodies, bud. 

Gies me a wee holiday I was badly needing. 

 

 

Same swab on tonsils and then up the beak is a bit manky. 

 

be worse the other way around  

[jack D and coke]

19 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Yeah. The Wife has been coughing constantly and I have a cough in the post and a wee flu like feeling. It's probably just a cold, or something, but I can't take any chances with a site full of bodies, bud. 

Gies me a wee holiday I was badly needing. 

 

 

Same swab on tonsils and then up the beak is a bit manky. 

My brother had one, said it wasn’t pleasant the one up the beak.
My cousin down south has had a dose as well and said like a bad cold so hopefully if positive nothing more that pal👍🏼

[reaths17]

10 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

If you read my link it was the Tory Covid spokesman who couldn't explain on television what the stay alert message entailed. I'm sure he understood it but couldn't remember it that was why there was widespread criticism from politicians scientists and others about the campaign.

I'd like to know what the FM is using the the virus as a tool for. Demonstrating that she and her party are competent and on top of the issues but then which politicians would not want to do that? Why is she any different?   look back through the thread, maybe her sister can help answer that.

You never did tell me what resources the SG didn't have. You could tell us now rather than pretending you have already done so.

 

there's a controlled environment in hospitality, selling alcohol and no direct link to increases of covid HOSPITALITY BANNED.

 

theres a overwhelming link to close contact in an indoor environment, special offers for cheap drink in supermarkets "invite your friends round for a swally, the more the merrier.

 

we can all see the discrepencies, if she isn't politicising with it, she's being what her sister said just for the hell of it.

 

 

want to stop the spread BAN uncontrolled selling/buying of alcohol and open the controlled environment of hospitality, where those that cant refrain from alcohol are in a monitored situation, might actually reduce alcoholism in the country and reduce the drink induced strain on the health service at the same time.

[Weakened Offender]

4 hours ago, SE16 3LN said:

I rest my case.

 

Your like the big fat school bully, comes in full of bluster, shouts abuse, swing a few punches at the wee guys and ****s off without making a single intelligent point. 

 

That's humour right there. 

[manaliveits105]

Nicky says testing is working well 

[westbow]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

I read that in Australia whose first Covid cases coincided with the onset of their winter, seasonal flu almost disappeared. 

Yeah, I'm not sure how anybody is supposed to catch the flu nowadays. Masks, hand washing, social distancing, no socialising, sanitising - its a germophobe's heaven.

[Heartsmad1874]

1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

Yeah. The Wife has been coughing constantly and I have a cough in the post and a wee flu like feeling. It's probably just a cold, or something, but I can't take any chances with a site full of bodies, bud. 

Gies me a wee holiday I was badly needing. 

 

 

Same swab on tonsils and then up the beak is a bit manky. 

 

I've tested people for Covid. Had a job doing it but gave it up after a couple of days due to my other job.

 

It truly is horrible doing that to someone  

[GBJambo]

2 hours ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

People can retrain in other skills and get different jobs 

 

just like miners back in the day had to

 😂

[DETTY29]

I think the Kelso hotelier has got a point.

 

But, if he wants to open, a mechanism needs to be in place that he does not accept clientele outside of certain postcodes.

 

And there are consequences if he does.

 

[DETTY29]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

If its the same thing I read about this morning it is a trial where 100 volunteers will be deliberately exposed to the virus in a controlled experiment to establish the level of risk of different doses of the virus, not a test of a vaccine as such but rather a step towards developing a vaccine. May next year was the target or forecast date quoted for the availability of a vaccine itself.

I think it's  the old positive news v. reality dilemma.

[DETTY29]

2 hours ago, graygo said:

 

Either that or people with flu also tested positive for Covid so that's what gets recorded.

Delete, sorry.

 

Wrongly quoted.

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by DETTY29

[SE16 3LN]

1 hour ago, coconut doug said:

 

If you read my link it was the Tory Covid spokesman who couldn't explain on television what the stay alert message entailed. I'm sure he understood it but couldn't remember it that was why there was widespread criticism from politicians scientists and others about the campaign.

I'd like to know what the FM is using the the virus as a tool for. Demonstrating that she and her party are competent and on top of the issues but then which politicians would not want to do that? Why is she any different? 

You never did tell me what resources the SG didn't have. You could tell us now rather than pretending you have already done so.

You didn't even know there was a plan. I'm only assuming it wasn't resourced because there was a shocking shortage of PPE and a huge shortage of hospital beds, respirators etc. etc. Perhaps that was the SG's plan all along 😀. Get out of your deity worshipping nationalist paradigm and face the facts, the SG has failed like all the other UK govts. 

[ri Alban]

1 hour ago, jack D and coke said:

My brother had one, said it wasn’t pleasant the one up the beak.
My cousin down south has had a dose as well and said like a bad cold so hopefully if positive nothing more that pal👍🏼

Cheers Bud. Its more my Mrs I'm worried about. Her cough has going for over 12 hrs now.

Me, I think I'm more just tired from constantly working. 

Find out on Thursday, if it's good or bad 🤞

Edited October 20, 2020 by ri Alban

[ri Alban]

50 minutes ago, Heartsmad1874 said:

 

I've tested people for Covid. Had a job doing it but gave it up after a couple of days due to my other job.

 

It truly is horrible doing that to someone  

That thing could go right back down the throat from up the nose.

Oh, Did it used to be 2 separate swabs when you tested people?

[TheOak88]

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

 

The WHO have put up a new study on their website. They are now estimating the death rate of CV is 0.23%. For people aged under 70 the death rate is 0.05%. 

 

For reference, the death rate for seasonal flu is approx. 0.15%. 

 

Quite an interesting read. 

[ri Alban]

1 hour ago, cheetah said:

 

be worse the other way around  

Read the instructions first. 🤣

 

[Cruyff]

Have to say, fair play to Andy Burnham telling the UK government to go fling shite at themselves. 

[Heartsmad1874]

7 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

That thing could go right back down the throat from up the nose.

Oh, Did it used to be 2 separate swabs when you tested people?

Nah. The same one, either side of the throat and surface of throat, then 10-15 seconds up the nose.

[Cruyff]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

I'll try and have read later, but are figures being compared like for like, or is the 0.23% what it has been due to lockdowns all over the world? Would it be higher if we had done nothing more than we do for the Flu? which of course also has a seasonal vaccine.

Yeah, the death rate would be way higher from covid if preventative measures hadn't been put in place. 

 

And also, there's a vaccine or Flu. 

[ri Alban]

Just now, Heartsmad1874 said:

Nah. The same one, either side of the throat and surface of throat, then 10-15 seconds up the nose.

👍

 

And it's probably better someone else tested folk, as most nurses get right in about it, as opposed to self testing wimp outs.

[Taffin]

11 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

 

The WHO have put up a new study on their website. They are now estimating the death rate of CV is 0.23%. For people aged under 70 the death rate is 0.05%. 

 

For reference, the death rate for seasonal flu is approx. 0.15%. 

 

Quite an interesting read. 

 

Will have a read of that later, thanks for sharing.

 

At face value, it's interesting that it's not drastically higher than flu given there is a vaccine for flu which should prevent those most at risk from flu catching it.

[steve123]

Listening to her  today  does not sound like hospitality is opening up in the central belt next week after the 2 week shut down.

 

 

[TheOak88]

8 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I'll try and have read later, but are figures being compared like for like, or is the 0.23% what it has been due to lockdowns all over the world? Would it be higher if we had done nothing more than we do for the Flu? which of course also has a seasonal vaccine.

 

The study is not comparing CV to flu, I just put that in as a reference point. Sorry, I should have said in my post the 0.23% is the IFR, so the chance of dying if you catch it. 

[SE16 3LN]

9 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

That's the crux of the matter. 

 

Lockdowns/circuit breakers/firebreaks/restrictions/harsher measures

 

This isn't even an attempt at a solution.

I know and now in England we have Mayor's wading in. We all know about the Burnham/Boris bust up but Sadiq Khan has just said that to save hospitality we should abolish 10pm closing. This from the man who pleaded with Boris to put London into tier two. Basically through ignorance he killed pubs and restaurants by saying you have to drink/eat alone or with your family and now he thinks he can save them by extending hours. More hours to be a sad lonely ******* down the pub 😀.The moral is, don't get involved with something you know **** all about Sadiq et al. 

[Cruyff]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

There are a few different areas pushing back on Central Government now over lockdown restrictions, my only worry is that they then say it's too difficult to manage regionally, your all in lockdown

Yeah, i think you're probably right there. 

The UK Gov needs to be careful though or businesses etc.. Might tell them to bolt if there is no further support in place. Could end in some serious levels of civil disobedience. 

[steve123]

2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Not sure if mentioned yet but the flattening of the rises has not continued today, 15 more deaths.  Last Tuesday the 7 day average was 3.6, it is now 9.7, this is still steadily rising, although not out of control at all.

Has this got anything to do with back log of cases from weekend ? 

Edited October 20, 2020 by steve123

[graygo]

15 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Yeah, the death rate would be way higher from covid if preventative measures hadn't been put in place. 

 

And also, there's a vaccine or Flu. 

 

Is the death rate not relative to the number of cases? If it is then it matters not a jot how many mitigations are in place.

 

Disclaimer: I've not read it yet.

Edited October 20, 2020 by graygo

[steve123]

4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Todays numbers probably do, that's why I try and look at the seven day average and compare with the same day of the week in the previous weeks.  In the first waves numbers really just kind of went up and up and up but this time it is slower and less predictable

Perfect cheers 

[JWL]

14 minutes ago, steve123 said:

Listening to her  today  does not sound like hospitality is opening up in the central belt next week after the 2 week shut down.

 

 

 

What did she say that made you come to that conclusion? I never thought they would open anyway but she did hint last week that the hospitality lockdown was still due to end on Sunday.

[vegas-voss]

27 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

 

The WHO have put up a new study on their website. They are now estimating the death rate of CV is 0.23%. For people aged under 70 the death rate is 0.05%. 

 

For reference, the death rate for seasonal flu is approx. 0.15%. 

 

Quite an interesting read. 

Kind of flies in the face of the statements they put out to the press really or how the press report them.

[steve123]

3 minutes ago, JWL said:

 

What did she say that made you come to that conclusion? I never thought they would open anyway but she did hint last week that the hospitality lockdown was still due to end on Sunday.

She said that they were drawing up the road map which would be discussed with opposition parties this week and implemented the week after next.

 

In the meantime she would discuss with her cabinet what was to happen next week in the interim and whether or not to roll over current guidelines until then.

[graygo]

3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

No I think you right, it is about deaths to cases, as best as they can work out, so they calculate asymptotic, not tested etc to they and get a true number of infections.

 

 

Yes, mitigations will lower the case numbers and the death numbers but should have no effect on the death rate. Effective treatments will though.

[graygo]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

And I think we have seen some of that already, hopefully more to come as well.

 

👍

[TheOak88]

8 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Kind of flies in the face of the statements they put out to the press really or how the press report them.

 

I am not a fan at all of the way the press (in the UK at least) have sensationalised CV. It’s been an absolute wet dream for rolling 24 news stations to have a heath pandemic which they can report on everyday. However, in fairness to both the WHO and the press, the IFR is a moving target, back in March/April there was very little data to go on as everything was still so new, which inevitably led to the hysteria that ensued.