Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Taffin]

3 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

Neither Taffin. We can’t be testing for it as even according to the CDC it (the virus) has still not been isolated. Therefore they don’t know what they are actually looking for. So they are using this PCR test to look, under amplification to a factor of 45 fold for viral RNA/DNA which even if detected may be strands of dead virus which has been dealt with by the body’s immune system but not finally excreted. It cannot differentiate between these dead viral strands or live virus which is capable of producing symptoms in someone and of being passed on.

 

 

Thanks, I think; if there was a smiley for 'woosh over my head', I'd use it here 😂

 

If I'm reading the above correctly, if they could isolate it, it would be sars-cov2 they are looking for rather than Covid-19?

[redjambo]

15 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

Neither Taffin. We can’t be testing for it as even according to the CDC it (the virus) has still not been isolated. Therefore they don’t know what they are actually looking for. So they are using this PCR test to look, under amplification to a factor of 45 fold for viral RNA/DNA which even if detected may be strands of dead virus which has been dealt with by the body’s immune system but not finally excreted. It cannot differentiate between these dead viral strands or live virus which is capable of producing symptoms in someone and of being passed on.

 

The virus was isolated a long while ago. See https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-isolate-canada-scientists-mutations-strains-a9399226.html, https://theconversation.com/i-study-viruses-how-our-team-isolated-the-new-coronavirus-to-fight-the-global-pandemic-133675 and many other sources. How do you think they have been able to analyse strains and put work into developing vaccines?

[redjambo]

10 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

 

Thanks, I think; if there was a smiley for 'woosh over my head', I'd use it here 😂

 

If I'm reading the above correctly, if they could isolate it, it would be sars-cov2 they are looking for rather than Covid-19?

 

The virus has been isolated many times and for a long while, Taffin. See my post above.

 

N Lincs Jambo is just spraffing crap as usual. The next time he mentions the CDC not being able to isolate the virus, just point him at this:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/grows-virus-cell-culture.html

 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

16 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

It just takes me 5 minutes each day, MMM. Glad to contribute the data.

 

The daily infection and death stats are broken down to local council area - see the Local Data tab on https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/ for more info. Historical death data is also available for subdistricts within council areas (see the Additional Death Data tab on the site) - you can find the data for Marchmont West for example, if you so desire. It takes a while for the latter to filter through though.

 

I agree with you that distancing + adequate face mask seems the most sensible approach, but you'll find others who disagree.

 

I know this may seem a bit "out there", but in my opinion eventually a great number of those who don't follow the safety guidelines will catch the virus and thus, assuming that reinfection remains a minimal risk, this will become less of a problem over time.

 

thanks red I’ll have a look at that later

 

yes hopefully the whole thing will become less of a problem over time not say it won’t be problem like flu for example

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

The virus has been isolated many times and for a long while, Taffin. See my post above.

 

N Lincs Jambo is just spraffing crap as usual. The next time he mentions the CDC not being able to isolate the virus, just point him at this:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/grows-virus-cell-culture.html

 

 

 

Thank you. Do we know what sort of proportion of those positive for the virus go on to develop the disease? Is it everyone and that's where the immunity/asymptomatic part comes in, ie everyone can catch the virus but some people don't develop the symptoms of the disease? Or when we talk about a cough, temperature etc are we talking about the symptoms of the virus?

 

Sorry if these are stupid questions. Just trying to understand how we get to the 'x' thousand of Covid-19 cases and how that relates to those catching the virus in the first place (1to1, 2to1 etc). 

 

Whilst I am guilty of a good bun fight in relation to the measures and government responses (mainly due to my interest in social policy) I am clueless and fascinated by the actual science of the virus and disease itself.

[Victorian]

24 minutes ago, Taffin said:

What's the definition of immunity? Are people who are asymptomatic immune?

 

It's not something if ever really though about before but I read a national geographic article and found the blurring of immune system response and 'immunity' quite confusing. I think I assumed immunity meant you didn't catch something but if you catch something and you body fights it without symptoms that seems like the same?

 

Or does the virus not even try to effect immune people? 

 

 

Edit: apologies for my Monday morning brain dump but also, when we are tested are we being tested for the virus or the disease?

 

Good question and a bit unknown regarding CV.  What is clear is that immunity (in whatever form) cannot be very widespread.  We would not be seeing this kind of spread if a large (ish) percentage was immune.  If it's found out that immunity is quite long lasting (6 months +) then it would be very good news.  It might enable a level of population immunity to build up and,  more crucially,  sustain.  This could ensure that outbreaks are easily suppressed.  It will be interesting to see how fast this wave continues at.  If it continues to spread on a shallower curve then it might indicate a better level of immunity than the simple figure indicated by the ONS antibody survey.  But it must still be in and around that range.

[graygo]

12 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

The virus has been isolated many times and for a long while, Taffin. See my post above.

 

N Lincs Jambo is just spraffing crap as usual. The next time he mentions the CDC not being able to isolate the virus, just point him at this:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/grows-virus-cell-culture.html

 

 

 

Silly question but is it the virus (Sars-cov-2) or the infection (Covid-19) that they develop a vaccine for?

 

 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

Thank you. Do we know what sort of proportion of those positive for the virus go on to develop the disease? Is it everyone and that's where the immunity/asymptomatic part comes in, ie everyone can catch the virus but some people don't develop the symptoms of the disease? Or when we talk about a cough, temperature etc are we talking about the symptoms of the virus?

 

Sorry if these are stupid questions. Just trying to understand how we get to the 'x' thousand of Covid-19 cases and how that relates to those catching the virus in the first place (1to1, 2to1 etc). 

 

Whilst I am guilty of a good bun fight in relation to the measures and government responses (mainly due to my interest in social policy) I am clueless and fascinated by the actual science of the virus and disease itself.

 

If you mean what proportion of those who test positive are symptomatic then we don't know for sure. It appears highly variable and there is conflicting data.

 

Also, symptoms are very variable, depending most likely on viral load, the body's ability to fight the virus, and any weaknesses in the body that might be affected by the fight.

 

They're not stupid questions at all. There's just a shedload of variability and that's difficult to manage. If the virus just turned everyone a bright shade of blue and affected everyone in the same way, it would be much easier to deal with.

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

Good question and a bit unknown regarding CV.  What is clear is that immunity (in whatever form) cannot be very widespread.  We would not be seeing this kind of spread if a large (ish) percentage was immune.  If it's found out that immunity is quite long lasting (6 months +) then it would be very good news.  It might enable a level of population immunity to build up and,  more crucially,  sustain.  This could ensure that outbreaks are easily suppressed.  It will be interesting to see how fast this wave continues at.  If it continues to spread on a shallower curve then it might indicate a better level of immunity than the simple figure indicated by the ONS antibody survey.  But it must still be in and around that range.

 

I guess we'll never really know unless we exposed everyone to it/tested everyone (neither seem a great idea!).

 

Currently c.99% of the population haven't had a positive test, I guess that could be down to not being exposed to it/because of immunity/being asymptomatic and not being tested/choosing not to be tested, or do we have the data to narrow that down?

 

Would it continue to increase until say 95% of the population had been infected if we did nothing or would it hit a ceiling of immunity and stop? This is where this whole thing blows my mind a bit so I do apologies for thinking out loud and asking what, to some, will be silly questions.

[A Boy Named Crow]

1 hour ago, SE16 3LN said:

I speak to Spanish, Italian, German, French etc. etc. people regularly and they say the same about their own countries. We are not unique. Your callous assessment of unemployment and people's reaction to it says more about you than the people of the UK. I have friends who lost their jobs in hospitality, they are in their late 50's early 60's. They won't work again. To you they're angry, Spoilt *******s. I suggest that makes you the one with the problem, not them. My local pub shut two weeks after opening hours were restricted. 8 people unemployed, 4 of whom will also be homeless within a month. You carry on with your heartless approach and I'll continue caring for those who suffer because of an approach to corona virus which is far from scientific. Challenging our governments is not childish, its a key part of democracy. 

I'm not being heartless,  the very opposite.  The half in half out approach taken in the UK has led not only to hardship in the short-term, but a long-term problem that is only getting worse.

 

Countries that caught the problem by the bawz (through hard lockdown measures and restrictions that people took seriously), like Australia and New Zealand, now have hospitality sectors that are getting back on their feet due to there being next to no coronavirus in the population and economies that were seriously damaged, but at least they can see a way out now. 

 

It's not doing anybody any favours to pretend the problem will go away if we all just wish hard enough.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Silly question but is it the virus (Sars-cov-2) or the infection (Covid-19) that they develop a vaccine for?

 

 

An effective vaccine should provide defence against the virus, SARS-CoV-2, by upping the body's immune response to it.

 

This is a reasonable description: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/5-ways-immune-responses-covid-vaccines-coronavirus-health-pandemic

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

If you mean what proportion of those who test positive are symptomatic then we don't know for sure. It appears highly variable and there is conflicting data.

 

Maybe. Are the symptoms a product of the virus or the disease I guess is my qualifier to that. If the symptoms are tied to the disease only rather than the virus, then yes that's what I mean. If the virus has its own symptoms then no, what I mean is if you catch the virus, will you then definitely develop the disease and if not what sort of ratio does go on to get Covid-19. My understanding of how this works is limited hence why I fear they may be silly questions. 

 

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Also, symptoms are very variable, depending most likely on viral load, the body's ability to fight the virus, and any weaknesses in the body that might be affected by the fight.

 

They're not stupid questions at all. There's just a shedload of variability and that's difficult to manage. If the virus just turned everyone a bright shade of blue and affected everyone in the same way, it would be much easier to deal with.

 

Celtic fans would be up in arms!! 😂

 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I guess we'll never really know unless we exposed everyone to it/tested everyone (neither seem a great idea!).

 

Currently c.99% of the population haven't had a positive test, I guess that could be down to not being exposed to it/because of immunity/being asymptomatic and not being tested/choosing not to be tested, or do we have the data to narrow that down?

 

Would it continue to increase until say 95% of the population had been infected if we did nothing or would it hit a ceiling of immunity and stop? This is where this whole thing blows my mind a bit so I do apologies for thinking out loud and asking what, to some, will be silly questions.

 

The theory is that the lowish R0 rate of reproduction means that you need about 60% to 70% to achieve practical elimination.  Other things like measles have a much higher R0 rate and require about 95% immunity.

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Maybe. Are the symptoms a product of the virus or the disease I guess is my qualifier to that. If the symptoms are tied to the disease only rather than the virus, then yes that's what I mean. If the virus has its own symptoms then no, what I mean is if you catch the virus, will you then definitely develop the disease and if not what sort of ratio does go on to get Covid-19. My understanding of how this works is limited hence why I fear they may be silly questions. 

 

 

The virus just gets on with doing what it does best - replicating and spreading. Any adverse reaction that the body has to actually being infected with the virus is effectively the disease. That's how I see it anyway.

 

4 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Celtic fans would be up in arms!! 😂

 

 

[Taffin]

13 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

The theory is that the lowish R0 rate of reproduction means that you need about 60% to 70% to achieve practical elimination.  Other things like measles have a much higher R0 rate and require about 95% immunity.

 

Would any R0 above zero not suggest that eventually everybody would catch it? Just at a varying rate depending on what that number was.

 

What I mean is that currently an overwhelming majority have not got/had it based on positive tests. How do we know what proportion of those people are immune/just not been exposed yet/not been tested despite having it?

 

Sorry if your answer above is explaining that and I'm just missing the point of it.

[RobboM]

31 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Silly question but is it the virus (Sars-cov-2) or the infection (Covid-19) that they develop a vaccine for?

 

 

There was an excellent edition of The Life Scientific recently with Sarah Gilbert, the woman leading the Oxford team often referred to in the media

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mj18

[N Lincs Jambo]

59 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

The virus has been isolated many times and for a long while, Taffin. See my post above.

 

N Lincs Jambo is just spraffing crap as usual. The next time he mentions the CDC not being able to isolate the virus, just point him at this:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/grows-virus-cell-culture.html

 

 

 

It's amazing what cats the CDC will let out of the bag when it thinks nobody is looking:

 

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/cdc-documents-no-quantified-virus-isolates-of-the-2019-ncov-are-currently-available/?fbclid=IwAR1dEfr3Z8-Fd7gCpDkAAzPsd9A5n0vxQIAGKaCiy6Rtn052ZPwyQKb7hJk

 

There you go @redjambo. I await your apology for me "just spraffing crap as usual".

[SE16 3LN]

34 minutes ago, A Boy Named Crow said:

I'm not being heartless,  the very opposite.  The half in half out approach taken in the UK has led not only to hardship in the short-term, but a long-term problem that is only getting worse.

 

Countries that caught the problem by the bawz (through hard lockdown measures and restrictions that people took seriously), like Australia and New Zealand, now have hospitality sectors that are getting back on their feet due to there being next to no coronavirus in the population and economies that were seriously damaged, but at least they can see a way out now. 

 

It's not doing anybody any favours to pretend the problem will go away if we all just wish hard enough.

Apologies, I must have misinterpreted your spoilt children comments. 

 

The virus is going to have an impact on the economy whatever the approach. NZ has responded well and eradicated it, but are are entering their worst recession since 1987. I don't think there is a win win solution although certain actions may have made things worse at various points since March.

[Shanks]

59 minutes ago, A Boy Named Crow said:

I'm not being heartless,  the very opposite.  The half in half out approach taken in the UK has led not only to hardship in the short-term, but a long-term problem that is only getting worse.

 

Countries that caught the problem by the bawz (through hard lockdown measures and restrictions that people took seriously), like Australia and New Zealand, now have hospitality sectors that are getting back on their feet due to there being next to no coronavirus in the population and economies that were seriously damaged, but at least they can see a way out now. 

 

It's not doing anybody any favours to pretend the problem will go away if we all just wish hard enough.

 

Exactly, when this all started it looked like countries had a choice between protecting the economy or saving people.  We have managed to do some halfway shitshow that has killed our economy AND achieved a high level of deaths.  

No wonder no one trusts anything the government advises.  ****ing incompetent. 

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

22 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

 

It's amazing what cats the CDC will let out of the bag when it thinks nobody is looking:

 

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/cdc-documents-no-quantified-virus-isolates-of-the-2019-ncov-are-currently-available/?fbclid=IwAR1dEfr3Z8-Fd7gCpDkAAzPsd9A5n0vxQIAGKaCiy6Rtn052ZPwyQKb7hJk

 

There you go @redjambo. I await your apology for me "just spraffing crap as usual".

 

No you were spraffing crap. Not quite as much as the hatchet job of an article but pretty close tbh.

 

 

[redjambo]

14 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

 

It's amazing what cats the CDC will let out of the bag when it thinks nobody is looking:

 

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/cdc-documents-no-quantified-virus-isolates-of-the-2019-ncov-are-currently-available/?fbclid=IwAR1dEfr3Z8-Fd7gCpDkAAzPsd9A5n0vxQIAGKaCiy6Rtn052ZPwyQKb7hJk

 

There you go @redjambo. I await your apology for me "just spraffing crap as usual".

 

Perhaps a little hint is that the paper in question refers to the disease throughout as 2019-nCoV, the *old* name for the virus before it was named SARS-CoV-2 on 11 Feb 2020.

 

It was a very early paper when first written. Some conspiracy theorist noticed the line in question and decided it would be a hoot to infer that the virus still had not been isolated, despite the vast number of references out there showing that it has, and you fell for it, hook, line and sinker. Bravo.

[A Boy Named Crow]

6 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 

Exactly, when this all started it looked like countries had a choice between protecting the economy or saving people.  We have managed to do some halfway shitshow that has killed our economy AND achieved a high level of deaths.  

No wonder no one trusts anything the government advises.  ****ing incompetent. 

 

Yup. The idea that it's ok for people to die,  so that others can keep their jobs is just barbaric.  It's doubly bad when you have a situation like the UK where you have people dying and others losing their jobs... and the infection rate through the roof!

 

As I said,  before,  a short sharp period of lock down, closed borders and just a general idea in people's heads that contact with other people should be avoided would have had the UK in a much better place than it is now,  in terms of infections,  deaths AND jobs.  Folks weren't having it though, which seems weird.

[redjambo]

13 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Perhaps a little hint is that the paper in question refers to the disease throughout as 2019-nCoV, the *old* name for the virus before it was named SARS-CoV-2 on 11 Feb 2020.

 

It was a very early paper when first written. Some conspiracy theorist noticed the line in question and decided it would be a hoot to infer that the virus still had not been isolated, despite the vast number of references out there showing that it has, and you fell for it, hook, line and sinker. Bravo.

 

Just some more info that the paper was first published on 4 Feb 2020 (and of course will have been written before that date while the diagnostic panel was being developed).

 

The CDC timeline is:

• On January 22, 2020, CDC received a clinical specimen collected from the first reported U.S. patient infected with SARS-CoV-2. CDC immediately placed the specimen into cell culture to grow a sufficient amount of virus for study.
• On February 2, 2020, CDC generated enough SARS-CoV-2 grown in cell culture to distribute to medical and scientific researchers.
• On February 4, 2020, CDC shipped SARS-CoV-2 to the BEI Resources Repository.

So, there you have it. The paper predates the availability of quantified virus isolates of the virus, as it describes most adequately.

 

The thing that gets me is that I shouldn't have had to research this just to prove that it was yet another conspiracy theory. Why can't people use their brains and common sense to filter out crap like this? I'll tell you why, it's because it feeds their conspiracy frenzy, and it does my head in that otherwise normal people appear unable to distinguish reality from fiction.

 

 

[Victorian]

1 hour ago, Taffin said:

 

Would any R0 above zero not suggest that eventually everybody would catch it? Just at a varying rate depending on what that number was.

 

What I mean is that currently an overwhelming majority have not got/had it based on positive tests. How do we know what proportion of those people are immune/just not been exposed yet/not been tested despite having it?

 

Sorry if your answer above is explaining that and I'm just missing the point of it.

 

It's inherent R0 value is 3.   The ongoing value varies with suppression and peaks and troughs of the epidemic.  The theory is that a level of immunity would be enough to ensure that there is never enough virus circulating to cause an epidemic.  Most people would never come into contact with a virus transmitting person.  

 

Antibodies are not the full picture but thd ONS survey shows about 10% of people with antibodies.  That's a good enough guide towards the level of immunity in the population.  How that affects the epidemic will greatly depend on the period of time people remain immune.  They really need to get data regarding how widespread the innate immune system of people is building up.

[The Internet]

54 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

 

It's amazing what cats the CDC will let out of the bag when it thinks nobody is looking:

 

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/cdc-documents-no-quantified-virus-isolates-of-the-2019-ncov-are-currently-available/?fbclid=IwAR1dEfr3Z8-Fd7gCpDkAAzPsd9A5n0vxQIAGKaCiy6Rtn052ZPwyQKb7hJk

 

There you go @redjambo. I await your apology for me "just spraffing crap as usual".

 

Beam. 

[Riddley Walker]

5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Just some more info that the paper was first published on 4 Feb 2020 (and of course will have been written before that date while the diagnostic panel was being developed).

 

The CDC timeline is:

• On January 22, 2020, CDC received a clinical specimen collected from the first reported U.S. patient infected with SARS-CoV-2. CDC immediately placed the specimen into cell culture to grow a sufficient amount of virus for study.
• On February 2, 2020, CDC generated enough SARS-CoV-2 grown in cell culture to distribute to medical and scientific researchers.
• On February 4, 2020, CDC shipped SARS-CoV-2 to the BEI Resources Repository.

So, there you have it. The paper predates the availability of quantified virus isolates of the virus, as it describes most adequately.

 

The thing that gets me is that I shouldn't have had to research this just to prove that it was yet another conspiracy theory. Why can't people use their brains and common sense to filter out crap like this? I'll tell you why, it's because it feeds their conspiracy frenzy, and it does my head in that otherwise normal people appear unable to distinguish reality from fiction.

 

 

 

Yep, it does my head in as well. I actually have no time to indulge them whatsoever, as unfortunately they are capable of badly influencing gullible people who can't think things through logically. It's insane how little rational thinking goes into some of their beliefs.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

1 minute ago, Barack said:

Back to lockdown for 2 weeks for us here in Wales.

 

All non-essential retail & hospitality shut. Anyone not a critical/essential worker(s)are to stay at home.

 

No gatherings in any number in or outdoors.

 

£300million  support announced. But more being asked for.

heard that last night form a friend whose pal lives in Welshpool and seemingly a local micro brewery received an email yesterday evening from a government source advising them to stop brewing ahead of this lockdown.

[Riddley Walker]

1 minute ago, Barack said:

The messaging on school's however...😳

 

Keeping primaries open, and some secondary? Hmm.

[Enzo Chiefo]

6 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

The Welsh announce their fire break. Stay at home order and everything to shut bar essential shops/facilities.

 

 

Probably expecting the UK govt to pay for the economic damage caused by such a catastrophic approach to dealing with, what is, a virus.

[Taffin]

7 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

It's inherent R0 value is 3.   The ongoing value varies with suppression and peaks and troughs of the epidemic.  The theory is that a level of immunity would be enough to ensure that there is never enough virus circulating to cause an epidemic.  Most people would never come into contact with a virus transmitting person.  

 

Antibodies are not the full picture but thd ONS survey shows about 10% of people with antibodies.  That's a good enough guide towards the level of immunity in the population.  How that affects the epidemic will greatly depend on the period of time people remain immune.  They really need to get data regarding how widespread the innate immune system of people is building up.

 

Cheers, that makes sense 👍

 

I've really enjoyed discussing the actual virus today and appreciate your input and that of redjambo on answering my questions. Going to stick to that from now on and not get drawn on the best solutions and measures.

[Mikey1874]

[manaliveits105]

Absolute gobbledygook stats from Nicky today I am non the wiser whats going on  and of course she is not politicking with the test figures blaming lighthouse 

she is twitching to press the lockdown button but hopefully will be dissuaded 

[The Internet]

Sounds like she found a way to artificially lower the percentage to make it look better for her

[DETTY29]

3 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Sounds like she found a way to artificially lower the percentage to make it look better for her

I'd say it's more of an eff up which is now aligned to WHO, and always should have been.

Edited October 19, 2020 by DETTY29

[Robbofan99]

15 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Absolute gobbledygook stats from Nicky today I am non the wiser whats going on  and of course she is not politicking with the test figures blaming lighthouse 

she is twitching to press the lockdown button but hopefully will be dissuaded 

Yes As u state she is desperate to lock down again . She Has not a scooby clue in thinking of alternatives and shitting it so just going for the easy option. Of another lockdown . Poor pubs and other businesses . 

[Mikey1874]

 

[Nucky Thompson]

48 minutes ago, Barack said:

Not a chance Scotland will escape it, imo. Only a matter of who's the next devolved Government to implement it.

Sturgeon is a bampot, but thankfully not as much as a bampot than Drakeford.

Plus she'll have one eye on next years elections, Drakeford's goose is cooked on that front

[OmiyaHearts]

From the people I know working in hospitality in Glasgow, they don't expect their bars or restaurants being allowed to open after the 16 day period comes to an end. 

 

Zero reason to be hopeful about anything positive happening over the next two or three weeks. Especially with a government in charge who seem to despise anyone having a good time and who have no care for people who work in hospitality. The people who've worked the hardest and earnt the least, treated like their jobs are meaningless and left to sit at home wondering if they'll even have a job to go back to.

 

Hard to think if NS & the SG could have messed this up any more than they already have. I'd be amazed if any business owner or hospitality worker will be voting SNP come election time. No idea who'll I'll switch to tbh, probably just not bother.

[coconut doug]

16 hours ago, jonesy said:

I suppose it comes down to what you consider 'a gentle touch' to be.

 

And, although I haven't seen a single one, aren't all  the daily 'briefings' led by NS? That would, to many, appear to be a political move. The fact she's still churning them out now, in October, would suggest that, not only have the policies adopted by all relevant parties in the UK failed, but that she has lost any grasp of how people get fatigued with this kind of stuff.

 

Taking responsibility for the management of the pandemic and being seen to do so is not "a political move". That is her job and every day she points out that she does not want to politicise the situation despite being asked incessantly why she is doing things differently to England. She always points out to them that the devolved governments and Westminster must do what they think is best for the areas they are responsible for and she is doing the same. She frequently tells them that now is not the time for political or constitutional questions but it often makes no difference as she is frequently asked for her opinion on what is happening elsewhere and why are we not doing the same because we are after all one United Kingdom. It is the dullards in the Press and the haters on here who are politicising her briefings.

 

   Nicola and the SNP did not use Brexit to further the Indy cause and they are not using the pandemic either. The fact that she is still "churning them out" shows that the situation is changing and that there is a need for further exposition. Of course people are fatigued that's why you have to keep explaining things to them. 

 

  There is a very good argument that UK policies failed at the beginning and that was to do with indecision rather than public engagement. It is much more difficult to claim that now in Scotland's case where our relative position with regard to the pandemic has improved significantly.

[Robbofan99]

17 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

From the people I know working in hospitality in Glasgow, they don't expect their bars or restaurants being allowed to open after the 16 day period comes to an end. 

 

Zero reason to be hopeful about anything positive happening over the next two or three weeks. Especially with a government in charge who seem to despise anyone having a good time and who have no care for people who work in hospitality. The people who've worked the hardest and earnt the least, treated like their jobs are meaningless and left to sit at home wondering if they'll even have a job to go back to.

 

Hard to think if NS & the SG could have messed this up any more than they already have. I'd be amazed if any business owner or hospitality worker will be voting SNP come election time. No idea who'll I'll switch to tbh, probably just not bother.

She’s lost my vote now . I’ll be voting Green next year . 

[Ray Gin]

15 minutes ago, Robbofan99 said:

She’s lost my vote now . I’ll be voting Green next year . 

 

The Greens who have said that the UK gov's measures don't go far enough and were against schools re-opening? You think they'd be taking a soft approach and just letting everything open up and crack on?

 

[SE16 3LN]

15 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

Taking responsibility for the management of the pandemic and being seen to do so is not "a political move". That is her job and every day she points out that she does not want to politicise the situation despite being asked incessantly why she is doing things differently to England. She always points out to them that the devolved governments and Westminster must do what they think is best for the areas they are responsible for and she is doing the same. She frequently tells them that now is not the time for political or constitutional questions but it often makes no difference as she is frequently asked for her opinion on what is happening elsewhere and why are we not doing the same because we are after all one United Kingdom. It is the dullards in the Press and the haters on here who are politicising her briefings.

 

   Nicola and the SNP did not use Brexit to further the Indy cause and they are not using the pandemic either. The fact that she is still "churning them out" shows that the situation is changing and that there is a need for further exposition. Of course people are fatigued that's why you have to keep explaining things to them. 

 

  There is a very good argument that UK policies failed at the beginning and that was to do with indecision rather than public engagement. It is much more difficult to claim that now in Scotland's case where our relative position with regard to the pandemic has improved significantly.

I don't know what shit show you've been watching, but NS politicised the virus from day 1, attacking the lack of funding, the stay alert message which she couldn't understand apparently, and continues to make it a Nationalist issue (see today's arguments about cross border  lighthouse labs). They have politicised it because they wanted to make it an independence cause, which to some extent seems to be backfiring on them now. 

 

As for at the beginning, the SG had their own pandemic plan, their own Emergency plan and in both those plans it stated clearly that the resources were there should a pandemic occur. They clearly weren't. While Westminster lacked plans and visions too, there is nobody more responsible for the current situation in Scotland than the Scottish Govt. themselves.

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 19 October 2020

Summary

• 993 new cases of COVID-19 reported; this is 17.1%* of newly tested individuals**
• 1 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends) [+1]
• 61 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-2]
• 754 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+40]
• 16,920 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results - 6.4% of these were positive**

 

[Nucky Thompson]

5 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

I don't know what shit show you've been watching, but NS politicised the virus from day 1, attacking the lack of funding, the stay alert message which she couldn't understand apparently, and continues to make it a Nationalist issue (see today's arguments about cross border  lighthouse labs). They have politicised it because they wanted to make it an independence cause, which to some extent seems to be backfiring on them now. 

 

As for at the beginning, the SG had their own pandemic plan, their own Emergency plan and in both those plans it stated clearly that the resources were there should a pandemic occur. They clearly weren't. While Westminster lacked plans and visions too, there is nobody more responsible for the current situation in Scotland than the Scottish Govt. themselves.

You're wasting your time with him.

He won't hear a bad word against 'Nicola' and the SG.

He's one of the brainwashed who thinks that Scotland has done a lot better than England dealing with the pandemic, although the 2 countries are much the same per 100,000 people. 

[Unknown user]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

Just some more info that the paper was first published on 4 Feb 2020 (and of course will have been written before that date while the diagnostic panel was being developed).

 

The CDC timeline is:

• On January 22, 2020, CDC received a clinical specimen collected from the first reported U.S. patient infected with SARS-CoV-2. CDC immediately placed the specimen into cell culture to grow a sufficient amount of virus for study.
• On February 2, 2020, CDC generated enough SARS-CoV-2 grown in cell culture to distribute to medical and scientific researchers.
• On February 4, 2020, CDC shipped SARS-CoV-2 to the BEI Resources Repository.

So, there you have it. The paper predates the availability of quantified virus isolates of the virus, as it describes most adequately.

 

The thing that gets me is that I shouldn't have had to research this just to prove that it was yet another conspiracy theory. Why can't people use their brains and common sense to filter out crap like this? I'll tell you why, it's because it feeds their conspiracy frenzy, and it does my head in that otherwise normal people appear unable to distinguish reality from fiction.

 

 

 

It's horrifying, people will lap up any old bullshit published to youtube these days.

My mate was telling me the other day that there won't be any negative financial effect from Brexit - we're not in the Euro so we just need to print more money, thats how it works according to a video he'd just watched.

I tried talking about inflation, about how more money representing the same amount of wealth just means the value of your money goes down but nope, having none of it.

If you print more money the country will be richer and I'm too stupid to understand that.

 

Aye nice one Dunning Kruger.

[joondalupjambo]

Hitting some European countries really badly now apparently with transmission rates rising and more cases by the day.

 

We now have Wales in lockdown, some areas in the UK under stricter restrictions with more to follow.  At what point do the UK government stop travel into our island from Europe so as to start to reduce the possible transmission of Covid from external sources?

 

Or do we just keep taking restrictive measures with our own population and keep the trap doors open?  Should the UK government not be looking to act quickly here?

 

 

 

 

[coconut doug]

On 17/10/2020 at 16:11, Enzo Chiefo said:

Probably all in care homes too. It would be really useful for both govts to actually split death figures between existing hospital patients/care homes and the community. Numerous hospital wards and care homes have been the sources of transmission and, I suspect, the vast majority of deaths are coming from those settings.  They won't announce those figures because they seem to prefer having a population paralysed with fear, rather than bring a large dose of perspective to dealing with a virus that is not nearly as deadly as was first thought. 

Back in March/April 50% of over 65s that caught the virus, were infected in hospital.  We now know that the virus has a death rate of less than 0.5% and even among those in their nineties, 6 out of 7 who catch it, survive. Time for govts to ratchet down on the scaremongering,  allow the population to go about their business and target the resources in the settings that house the most vulnerable. 

 

 

 

On 17/10/2020 at 19:40, Enzo Chiefo said:

All quoted in the press today. The 50% infection rate figure came from research based on 222 patients in elderly wards in Glasgow in March/April.  The study was led by the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital.  Also published in the Scottish Medical Journal.

To be honest, you should reserve your scepticism for the govt and scientific modellers. I've yet to see any evidence to back up their assertions and decision making.

 

On 17/10/2020 at 23:16, Enzo Chiefo said:

No I don't. Not really sure why you're looking for it anyway. You don't really find these findings surprising do you?? Where did you think elderly, vulnerable people were picking up the virus? In a pub or a coffee shop?? Do you seriously think I would post such detailed info that didn't exist.?? Study was led by Dr Peter Davis at QEU Hospital. A bit of digging, I'm sure you'll find it.

 

I found it and i read it and wholly unsurprisingly it does not support your ludicrous statistics and the inferences you make from them.

  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0036933020962891

 

Nobody could possibly think that "Back in March/April 50% of over 65s that caught the virus, were infected in hospital." All you are doing is trying to characterise our hospitals, our country and our response to the pandemic in the worst possible way.

 

The current death rate for the virus does not as you say have  "a death rate of less than 0.5%". In the UK about 0.65% of the population have already died. That figure can only go one way. Around 7% of those who have tested positive have died. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We also know that many are having illness that doesn't kill them but does seriously debilitate them. This site also shows that the proportion of younger people dying is increasing. https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

 

It seems to me the government modelers have this about right.

[spirt of 98]

1 hour ago, OmiyaHearts said:

From the people I know working in hospitality in Glasgow, they don't expect their bars or restaurants being allowed to open after the 16 day period comes to an end. 

 

Zero reason to be hopeful about anything positive happening over the next two or three weeks. Especially with a government in charge who seem to despise anyone having a good time and who have no care for people who work in hospitality. The people who've worked the hardest and earnt the least, treated like their jobs are meaningless and left to sit at home wondering if they'll even have a job to go back to.

 

Hard to think if NS & the SG could have messed this up any more than they already have. I'd be amazed if any business owner or hospitality worker will be voting SNP come election time. No idea who'll I'll switch to tbh, probably just not bother.

More pant wetting over businesses. The Government have a duty to protect lives under ECHR. Sometimes they have to make tough decisions. 
 

Do you really think anyone else in the FM role would navigate the pandemic better. Really not thought your argument through. 

Edited October 19, 2020 by spirt of 98

[Beni]

20 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by fancy a brew
Never mind

[King prawn]

Lies, damned lies and statistics.