Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[ri Alban]

Jack Dorsey pledges $1b to virus relief. 👍 Good lad!

[Tommy Brown]

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Jack Dorsey pledges $1b to virus relief. 👍 Good lad!

I had no idea who he was.

Computer entrepreneur responsible for Twitter. Net worth 2.9b$

Fantastic gesture

Edited April 8, 2020 by Tommy Brown

[The Mighty Thor]

Not seen this in the last few pages.

 

It's an article in the Guardian on a report by the IHME who provide data analysis for the WHO.

 

The numbers are staggering and their analysis of HM government's response is fairly brutal. 

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts?__twitter_impression=true

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

6 hours ago, graygo said:

Strange that they (Trump) claim that African American's have an infection rate many time more than anyone else, haven't even heard that being hinted at before and surely wouldn't that apply in every country and not just the USA.

Someone suggested that this ethnic group might be in frontline jobs so catch it more, if that's true then surely that makes it a non issue. Certainly not a race one.

Nope only in the USA cuss African Americans only exist in the USA.

but in the UK people of Asian or Afro/Carib origin are accounting for 38% of the UK total severe cases but are only 13% of the population. This may just be because places like London are hit bad which has a higher than average minority population, again that may be true with the USA as cities like NY, LA and Chicago get hit bad.

[The Internet]

4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Jack Dorsey pledges $1b to virus relief. 👍 Good lad!

 

He inflicted twitter on the world, takes a lot more than a billion to make up for that one. 

[OBE]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Not seen this in the last few pages.

 

It's an article in the Guardian on a report by the IHME who provide data analysis for the WHO.

 

The numbers are staggering and their analysis of HM government's response is fairly brutal. 

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts?__twitter_impression=true

 

We need this wee b*st*rd to dilute, when or if it mutates.

[Marvin]

8 hours ago, Smithee said:

You only need to self isolate for 7 days, everyone else is 14.

 

I'm self isolating and have been for 10 days now. I am now working from home on work's laptop which I took delivery of yesterday afternoon. (I'm on JKB from my own one). I'm not to return until further notice. Could be another week or two. I'm just pleased I've got a fairly decent selection of music to play in the background. 

 

It's 8.20 now so I really should get back to it. Have a good day and stay safe.

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, Marvin said:

 

I'm self isolating and have been for 10 days now. I am now working from home on work's laptop which I took delivery of yesterday afternoon. (I'm on JKB from my own one). I'm not to return until further notice. Could be another week or two. I'm just pleased I've got a fairly decent selection of music to play in the background. 

 

It's 8.20 now so I really should get back to it. Have a good day and stay safe.

I'll be back at work next week myself, seems they're being a bit over careful to me but I'm getting paid so who's complaining?

 

But aye, hope everyone's feeling good and dealing with the hurdles. Never forget, it could be worse - we could have been born hibs

[Unknown user]

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

I’m not sure it’s the best reference point but I was listening to a JRE podcast and they had a infectious disease expert on. His name escapes me. However, he talked a lot about Coronavirus and he mentioned that it appears to act differently in a variety of different situations. Blood type and genetic makeup (via ethnicity) were amongst some of the issues he touched upon. 
 

So there might be something in it. 
 

Also might be a social issue in US. African Americans tends to be in poorer urbanised areas and all that comes with that probably means the exposure risk is greater. 

 

It’s not all that unusual for diseases to effect ethnicity differently though. 

Near the beginning of all this, there was an article saying that Covid 19 was more prevalent in a certain blood group, think it was A but not sure. Could be some ethnicities have that blood group more than others. 

[graygo]

1 hour ago, Mac_fae_Gillie said:

Nope only in the USA cuss African Americans only exist in the USA.

but in the UK people of Asian or Afro/Carib origin are accounting for 38% of the UK total severe cases but are only 13% of the population. This may just be because places like London are hit bad which has a higher than average minority population, again that may be true with the USA as cities like NY, LA and Chicago get hit bad.

 

 

Duh! Of course, silly me. It was late tbf.

[fabienleclerq]

Just curious the government said only 4000 new cases this week, how do they know if they aren't testing people with symptoms? 

[The Old Tolbooth]

11 hours ago, His name is said:

The current 'lockdown' ends on Monday.

 

Further arrangements likely to be announced at the end of this week. 

 

Im thinking another 3 weeks will be announced. Not great for everyone but needs must I suppose. 

And you’ll still get arseholes all over social media moaning about it whilst completely ignoring the law. We need a full lockdown, no half arsed measures this time. 

[hughesie27]

2 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

Just curious the government said only 4000 new cases this week, how do they know if they aren't testing people with symptoms? 

They are aware that the true new case figures are inaccurate.

 

That is why the death rate figure is a better indicator of where we are.

[Sooperstar]

Interesting read on how long it can take to recover, particularly for those who have been on a ventilator.

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/the-road-to-recovery-for-covid-19-patients?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true

[scott herbertson]

30 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

They are aware that the true new case figures are inaccurate.

 

That is why the death rate figure is a better indicator of where we are.

 

 

I would say the new cases proportion of those newly tested would be the best indicator, the death rate having an inevitable lag will only tell us how the virus was spreading a few week s before.

[Dazo]

10 hours ago, The Roller said:

So I developed a cough today. It’s what I’d describe as tickly. I’ve never had a cough I’d describe as dry before though. I don’t know if it’s continuous but I’ve coughed around 3/4/5 times every hour. Not violently, it’s just a tickly light cough. Normally it would barely register.

 

On top of that though, the Mrs reckons my head, back and face are hot to touch. We don’t have a thermometer in the house. Well we did when the kids were young but no idea where it’s went.

 

I feel absolutely fine and chances are it’s nothing but I’ll sleep in the spare bedroom tonight and see what happens. Looks like we’ll be self isolating for a fortnight. 

I wouldn’t bother with the spare room if you are already showing symptoms, that ship has sailed. 

[Beni]

15 minutes ago, Dazo said:

I wouldn’t bother with the spare room if you are already showing symptoms, that ship has sailed. 

 

Just my opinion, but I disagree. Different people shed the virus at different times, and viral load seems to contribute to how bad subsequent infection becomes. So keep away from other members of the household as much as possible. 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

56 minutes ago, The Old Tolbooth said:

And you’ll still get arseholes all over social media moaning about it whilst completely ignoring the law. We need a full lockdown, no half arsed measures this time. 

 

what does full lockdown mean ?

[hughesie27]

24 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

I would say the new cases proportion of those newly tested would be the best indicator, the death rate having an inevitable lag will only tell us how the virus was spreading a few week s before.

Only if they are doing a lot more testing than before.

[Dazo]

3 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

Just my opinion, but I disagree. Different people shed the virus at different times, and viral load seems to contribute to how bad subsequent infection becomes. So keep away from other members of the household as much as possible. 

Aye fair enough I disagree with you. 😊

 

 

[scott herbertson]

Just now, hughesie27 said:

Only if they are doing a lot more testing than before.

 

 

All the stats are a bit dodgy to be fair - eg deaths only of those hospitalised so hard to compare country with country or across time But they will be analysing the spread and I think cases/ tests is about the best measure because of its currency, deaths having a lag. If you go on the site UK Polloing report there is a great deal of interesting analysis if you are inclined towards the statistical. The best resource being  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Victorian]

I don't think any of the testing translates into a clearer picture of how widespread the infection is or has been.    Nor does it show anything worthwhile regarding rates of positive cases who have had mild symptoms,  are recovered,  needed to be hospitalised,  ICU.     All the testing shows is rates from the raw numbers of tests made.    The testing has been extremely patchwork.     You would never be able to extrapolate worthwhile rates unless there was a much wider number of tests.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Victorian

[The Roller]

40 minutes ago, Dazo said:

I wouldn’t bother with the spare room if you are already showing symptoms, that ship has sailed. 

I thought the whole point of the :

 

7 days isolation if you live alone.

14 days isolation if symptoms are showing in a family member of the same household

 

Is due to the length of tome it could take to transmit infection?

 

I may not yet have passed it on to any/some/one of my family yet.

 

The spare room it is.

 

Shite advice, Dr Dazo, imo.  

Edited April 8, 2020 by The Roller

[highlandjambo3]

Reported that Africa has now in excess of 10,000........ is that the same Africa with the number of countries and a population bigger that Europe?  I would imagine we could add a zero or two onto that in a short time.

Edited April 8, 2020 by highlandjambo3

[Victorian]

There's evolving info and advice on self isolation with symptoms.    There are lots of people describing how they continue to have symptoms well beyond 7 days.    People describing feeling terrible,  then getting better,  then going downhill again.     The PM included.

 

The 14 day advice for others in the household also seems a bit rigid.    Incubation can be longer for a start.    I think these timescales are an indication and in reality,   people need to closely monitor their own situation before thinking about ending isolation.

[The Old Tolbooth]

35 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

what does full lockdown mean ?

 

Only allowed out once or twice per week for essential shopping, and that's it. 

[BlackJAC?]

17 minutes ago, highlandjambo3 said:

Reported that Africa has now in excess of 10,000........ is that the same Africa with the number of countries and a population bigger that Europe?  I would imagine we could add a zero or two onto that in a short time.

 

Can't really compare Africa to Europe. I suspect most people don't live in high density areas and are more spread out.  Each country differs greatly.  Saying South Africa is representative of Democratic Republic of the Congo is akin to saying London is similar to Greenland. 

[Dazo]

23 minutes ago, The Roller said:

I thought the whole point of the :

 

7 days isolation if you live alone.

14 days isolation if symptoms are showing in a family member of the same household

 

Is due to the length of tome it could take to transmit infection?

 

I may not yet have passed it on to any/some/one of my family yet.

 

The spare room it is.

 

Shite advice, Dr Dazo, imo.  

Up for debate but you can be highly contagious before symptoms appear. Up to you Roller but if it was just me and the mrs in these very boring times the spare room would be the last place I’d be. 😜

[OBE]

32 minutes ago, The Old Tolbooth said:

 

Only allowed out once or twice per week for essential shopping, and that's it. 

 

What's it?...Is it 1 or is it 2? Rather vague. Covidiots and the obedient will have bother with that instruction.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Old Blue Eyes

[Walter Bishop]

IMHE latest (estimated) figures - 

 

Predicting UK will have more deaths than Spain and Italy combined. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

[I P Knightley]

16 hours ago, Cade said:

Even Whitty and Valance seem at a loss for what to do.

"We want to flatten the curve but we're not there yet but we think it's working but we're not sure and we can't relax things until we flatten the curve but things might get worse but we can't stay on lockdown too long"

Pick the feckin bones out of that shite.

They're straying from their areas of expertise (health and medicine) over into economic factors where there's a risk that the government override the health and medical advice. (A slighter risk here than in the US, tbf)

It's all part of being in an unprecedented situation with a previously unknown virus, the behaviour of which can't be known. It's better just to say that than to pretend that they can forecast with any accuracy. 

 

 

15 hours ago, Victorian said:

You have to ask why.    I'm afraid the indications are that the government is dysfunctional.    Not a political point.    

 

I think Raab is reluctant to have the official responsibility and they don't want to make any moves to firm up a more functioning chain of command while the PM's status is unknown.     They're basically on auto-pilot.

The government is horribly dysfunctional. There are at least three senior ministers who believe that they would be a better PM than Johnson and would, no doubt, be jockeying for position in the best of times. Add to that the rise of Rishi Sunak - there's something the posh boys of Eton struggle to handle. They cower from women with power; how are they going to cope with a strong brown person in charge? Throw into the mix that this vacuum at the top has come at the worst possible time, so that they all have to pretend that they're not interested in seizing power. But they are. 

 

 

10 hours ago, The Roller said:

I feel absolutely fine and chances are it’s nothing but I’ll sleep in the spare bedroom tonight and see what happens. Looks like we’ll be self isolating for a fortnight. 

Lock yourself up with your laptop or tablet and tissues or old socks. You'll come out with a right arm like Arnold Schwarzenegger's.

 

 

[The Internet]

[hughesie27]

14 minutes ago, Walter Bishop said:

IMHE latest (estimated) figures - 

 

Predicting UK will have more deaths than Spain and Italy combined. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Has that site been accurate for other nations?

[Walter Bishop]

1 minute ago, hughesie27 said:

Has that site been accurate for other nations?

Not all there are quite big inaccuracies for the US. 

[vegas-voss]

Vets in India are testing to see if a group of 14 wild monkeys have died after catching Covid -19 after they were found dead with pneumonia like symptoms.

[BlackJAC?]

Yeah, they have always said primates will be susceptible to this due to their similar genetic make up to humans. It's why almost all zoos closed off their primate enclosures at the first opportunity they got.  Supposedly it's not uncommon for apes to catch colds from their keepers.

[I P Knightley]

45 minutes ago, BlackJAC? said:

 

Can't really compare Africa to Europe. I suspect most people don't live in high density areas and are more spread out.  Each country differs greatly.  Saying South Africa is representative of Democratic Republic of the Congo is akin to saying London is similar to Greenland. 

I've been in something like 10 cities in Africa and I'd say that the density in each is at least equivalent to London. The total population of those 10 cities would be nowhere near the total of 10 of the largest European cities (probably between 1 and 3 million in most, except Lagos) but the density and the poverty would suggest to me that the rate of infection would be substantially higher than in European cities. 

[BlackJAC?]

1 minute ago, I P Knightley said:

I've been in something like 10 cities in Africa and I'd say that the density in each is at least equivalent to London. The total population of those 10 cities would be nowhere near the total of 10 of the largest European cities (probably between 1 and 3 million in most, except Lagos) but the density and the poverty would suggest to me that the rate of infection would be substantially higher than in European cities. 

I'm not saying there isn't high density cities in Africa, I was just saying most populations live in sprawled out habitats. Some villages are isolated to such an extent that the next village can be hours apart.

 

A mistake most people make is assuming Africa is like one large country because of the way media report it, but the differences between each country can be striking.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

35 minutes ago, Walter Bishop said:

IMHE latest (estimated) figures - 

 

Predicting UK will have more deaths than Spain and Italy combined. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

 

I'm not sure that I'd trust the IHME predictions.

 

In the link posted earlier this morning, the IHME predicted that by August (in 4 months time) the UK would have 66,314 deaths, maybe we might, but they also predicted that also by August, Italy would have had 20,300, Spain 19,209 & France 15,058.

 

As of today Italy has 17,127, Spain 14,555 & France 10,328, at current levels all 3 will surpass the IHME prediction for total deaths by August within the next few weeks, at least 3 months earlier than the IHME are predicting.

 

So I would urge caution reading their figures & predictions.

 

[vegas-voss]

7 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I'm not sure that I'd trust the IHME predictions.

 

In the link posted earlier this morning, the IHME predicted that by August (in 4 months time) the UK would have 66,314 deaths, maybe we might, but they also predicted that also by August, Italy would have had 20,300, Spain 19,209 & France 15,058.

 

As of today Italy has 17,127, Spain 14,555 & France 10,328, at current levels all 3 will surpass the IHME prediction for total deaths by August within the next few weeks, at least 3 months earlier than the IHME are predicting.

 

So I would urge caution reading their figures & predictions.

 

Was that not lower predictions ?

 

Just they have the UK at a low prediction of 14k

 

Does seem mental that they have the UK to have 40% of deaths in Europe and say it's partly cause of herd immunity when Netherlands and Sweden adopted it before us and still have more laced isolation now.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, The Old Tolbooth said:

 

Only allowed out once or twice per week for essential shopping, and that's it. 

 

i hope not as folk need to walk their dogs and stuff

 

some flaws in the current set-up could be minimised with stricter policing if there’s the resource for that 

[Cade]

Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Gateshead are causing problems according to some of my friends in the area (and in Israel too).

They are congregating in large numbers and simply going about their daily life as normal.

Anybody challenging them on this is instantly called an antisemite.

Local bobbies don't get involved because they don't want to be suspended pending a formal investigation into whether or not they were being anitsemitic by breaking up large groups of Jewish youths.

Israel has gone as far as to seal off and blockade Orthodox areas, forming internal Ghettos.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

5 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Was that not lower predictions ?

 

Just they have the UK at a low prediction of 14k

 

Does seem mental that they have the UK to have 40% of deaths in Europe and say it's partly cause of herd immunity when Netherlands and Sweden adopted it before us and still have more laced isolation now.

 

No, my reading of it was that it was total deaths by August.

'The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.'

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts?__twitter_impression=true

And the graph immediately below the above paragraph showed the same.

 

We might end up having more deaths, yes that is perfectly possible, but I just can't see it being 3 or 4 times more than Italy or Spain.

 

But like what we are seeing with near enough all the models they have to be amended or scraped because things are moving so fast and new things become known about this virus.

 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

5 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Not seen this in the last few pages.

 

It's an article in the Guardian on a report by the IHME who provide data analysis for the WHO.

 

The numbers are staggering and their analysis of HM government's response is fairly brutal. 

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts?__twitter_impression=true

 

Hmmm the WHO have been absolutely chronic throughout this whole pandemic so I'm not sure we should be hanging on the words of those advising them.

[luckydug]

 

 

) 

8 minutes ago, Cade said:

Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Gateshead are causing problems according to some of my friends in the area (and in Israel too).

They are congregating in large numbers and simply going about their daily life as normal.

Anybody challenging them on this is instantly called an antisemite.

Local bobbies don't get involved because they don't want to be suspended pending a formal investigation into whether or not they were being anitsemitic by breaking up large groups of Jewish youths.

Israel has gone as far as to seal off and blockade Orthodox areas, forming internal Ghettos.

Dont see the problem here. 

If they are breaking the law they need stopped. 

As long as the Police are even handed any accusations of religious bias would be dismissed imo. 

This thing is more important than religion. 

[Mysterion]

1 minute ago, luckydug said:

Dont see the problem here. 

If they are breaking the law they need stopped. 

As long as the Police are even handed any accusations of religious bias would be dismissed imo. 

This thing is more important than religion. 

 

Officers with body cams is fairly normal isn't it ? 

Surely this would negate people from crying wolf very quickly. 

 

[Francis Albert]

2 hours ago, The Old Tolbooth said:

 

Only allowed out once or twice per week for essential shopping, and that's it. 

And how the hell could that possibly be enforced?

[redjambo]

14 minutes ago, Cade said:

Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Gateshead are causing problems according to some of my friends in the area (and in Israel too).

They are congregating in large numbers and simply going about their daily life as normal.

Anybody challenging them on this is instantly called an antisemite.

Local bobbies don't get involved because they don't want to be suspended pending a formal investigation into whether or not they were being anitsemitic by breaking up large groups of Jewish youths.

Israel has gone as far as to seal off and blockade Orthodox areas, forming internal Ghettos.

 

Religion going against common sense. Now that is highly unusual.

[OBE]

18 minutes ago, Cade said:

Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Gateshead are causing problems according to some of my friends in the area (and in Israel too).

They are congregating in large numbers and simply going about their daily life as normal.

Anybody challenging them on this is instantly called an antisemite.

Local bobbies don't get involved because they don't want to be suspended pending a formal investigation into whether or not they were being anitsemitic by breaking up large groups of Jewish youths.

Israel has gone as far as to seal off and blockade Orthodox areas, forming internal Ghettos.

 

Playing with fire, they might decimate their own herd and innocents.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Old Blue Eyes