Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

Fingers crossed we can make this happen. It's really unnerving not knowing how/when we reach a point where we can move to a new phase beyond lockdown. 

 

From a personal perspective, since being furloughed I'm really starting to struggle with it all. Whilst I was still working it kept me sane.

 

It's probably a toxic mix of the troubling information about one's fate (inc. family members) once infected plus the total uncertainty of what's ahead in terms of all aspects of normal life.    

 

A compounding feature of each person's psychological state is that everyone knows that everyone else is in the same world of shit.     There's no normal way to access help.    There's nothing anyone in the world can do to reassure the individual.    We all just have to hope and take the positives from all future steps towards the recovery.

[Mikey1874]

41 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

And I think it was the nation itself that in part, changed the governments minds in addition to the strain on the NHS.

 

Folk started to realise 'hang on a minute, you are asking for my x,y, z, (me) to be sacrificied over a short period of time'

 

Of course, down the line the downstream impacts may be worse.  I've heard a 6% reduction in GDP will lead to more consequnces and lives further down the line.

 

 

Doctor on tv mentioned 4 key areas

 

1. Deaths in ICU / hospital 

2. Deaths in community

3. Deaths from operations being cancelled (my sister in law's cancer operation has been cancelled though hopefully okay)

4. Excess Deaths from economy etc being hit

[Mikey1874]

41 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Michael Gove self isolating now due to a member of the family showing symptoms.

 

Is it the time to decalre a full national emergency?  Top x x x number of people in government, civil service, health decision makers taken away from their families and after an initial period of self isolation but in some form of war bunker.

 

 

 

That's 14 days for Gove 

[Shanks]

I haven't seen any evidence that you become immune to covid-19 after you recover from it.  Even if you do become immune there will be a timescale involved, does it last for 1 week? 3 months?  The reality is that no one knows.

 

The idea that the virus will just rip through the country and we can go back to normal is a total fantasy I'm afraid.  Not a shred of evidence that that is going to happen as far as I can see.  We won't all become immune to it and it just disappears. 

 

We need some kind of treatment against the virus that gives people a better chance of recovery, a vaccine is miles away (if it's ever made) 

[ArcticJambo]

4 hours ago, fabienleclerq said:

 

I feel like we've imposed a half arsed lockdown compared to other countries, we watched Italy and instead of acting quickly and shutting down ASAP we appeared to think we had plenty time.

 

We obviously dragged our feet getting PPE and ventilators or organising testing.

 

We have no idea how many people have or have had it or which parts of the country are worst hit as we have just told people with symptoms to hide away without testing. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yet, what little did come out of China seemed to indicate that a very high percentage of deaths resulted from in-house family contact (quite possibly after lockdown). Stats seem to show that in Italy households top the league when it comes to super-spreaders/young folks still living with old/vulnerable family members.

[Francis Albert]

20 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

As I say people clearly don’t understand modelling. Thats not a dig its just an observation.

 

The point of a model is you can put in lots of different inputs, which produces ‘scenarios’. In various scenarios some of the inputs will be nonsensical but in someways that’s the point. There will be lots of different assumptions, permutations, combinations which will produced bundles of outcomes. These different scenarios shape the route you go. Your modelling becomes more accurate over time. No one has ever claimed it provides the answer or a defined outcome. It provides scenarios to inform decision making with the best information and understanding of a moment in time, its not a crystal ball.

 

It will continue to be refined as more information becomes available; and understanding. However, there will still be multiple scenarios as the thing is so ****ing complex.

 

People can challenge the modelling but that’s not what happening, people are dismissing its validity because they don’t understand it and don’t like what it says. In addition to making numerous false claims which you conceded misled yourself.

 

Experts aren’t perfect and will get things wrong particularly in relation to hugely complex matters. However, they are the experts for a reason, that is due to the knowledge and expertise in areas that your average Joe does not posses. I would certainly take their view over to some random every time.

 

 

 

 

Agree with all that except that a number of renowned experts in the field (including just for example one at Stanford University) have challenged the Imperial College/Ferguson model, and indeed some of his modelling in the past.

Complexity and multiple scenarios seems to me to argue against focussing on single (very rounded) number outputs whether 500,000, 250,000 or 20,000

Edited April 7, 2020 by Francis Albert

[vegas-voss]

Would like to  just trust what the experts say but when you have Ferguson change from one interview to the next it just feels like they don't know.Actually think it would be better if all of these experts apart from Whitty or his deputy just kept quite as the press can make the story far different to what the interview was.

Edited April 7, 2020 by vegas-voss

[Victorian]

6 minutes ago, Shanks said:

I haven't seen any evidence that you become immune to covid-19 after you recover from it.  Even if you do become immune there will be a timescale involved, does it last for 1 week? 3 months?  The reality is that no one knows.

 

The idea that the virus will just rip through the country and we can go back to normal is a total fantasy I'm afraid.  Not a shred of evidence that that is going to happen as far as I can see.  We won't all become immune to it and it just disappears. 

 

We need some kind of treatment against the virus that gives people a better chance of recovery, a vaccine is miles away (if it's ever made) 

 

We'll know soon(ish) enough.    If we don't get that data from China then we'll soon get it from Italy,  Spain and within the UK.     If immunity is generally not resilient then data will begin to show numbers of people being infected again.    Both from confirmed cases and secondary information about likely second time infected cases.    If we don't get these numbers appearing then we can safely assume that there is some degree of immunity.    It cannot be that a large percentage of previously infected people have only a short immunity and for that data not to appear.

[graygo]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

That's my holiday finally been cancelled by jet 2. They say they are going to contact me to discuss options and say they will recommencing flights as of June 17th. Surely that's hopeful at best?

 

Not really, until today they were saying that they were planning to restart flights as of 1st May. June 17th will probably be changed nearer the time 

I got the same email this morning to say my holiday is cancelled.

[highlandjambo3]

1 hour ago, DETTY29 said:

I was stupid and took an option in September from April with Jet2, and I still had to pay the difference, about £50.

 

It was with a big group and some of the guys after initially indicating still going for September are changing their minds.

 

I was also meant to be in Dublin at the weekend past (via Ryanair) and they were also clear that I'd need to pay the difference if I took a reschedued flight.  I took the cancellation and refund.  But guess what, there was a lady on Radio Scotland last week who had a flight with Ryanair cancelled and offered rescheduled flights which were significantly cheaper if booking afresh, but no refund of difference offered.

 

How desparate are you to get away once we are allowed to travel again?

 

Overall expert feeling is that there may be some deals initially but prices will rise due to airlines etc needing to claw back money plus the impact of excess of demand versus supply.

Not sure how the cruise ship industry will survive this.  It seemed that these floating germ incubators initially were told to bolt by almost every port they tried to enter......I think the response to help passengers was very poor, I think initially we thought (or were led to believe) the main threat to us of the spread was from contaminated cruise liners. 

[Shanks]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

We'll know soon(ish) enough.    If we don't get that data from China then we'll soon get it from Italy,  Spain and within the UK.     If immunity is generally not resilient then data will begin to show numbers of people being infected again.    Both from confirmed cases and secondary information about likely second time infected cases.    If we don't get these numbers appearing then we can safely assume that there is some degree of immunity.    It cannot be that a large percentage of previously infected people have only a short immunity and for that data not to appear.

 

Exactly I'm sure we will find out soon enough roughly how long it lasts.

 

Does show how bat shit mental 'herd immunity' plan is though.

 

Could be wave after wave

[ArcticJambo]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

That's my holiday finally been cancelled by jet 2. They say they are going to contact me to discuss options and say they will recommencing flights as of June 17th. Surely that's hopeful at best?

Will be to keep your money in their bank account.  They know full well that you won't be holidaying in June.

Edited April 7, 2020 by ArcticJambo

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Though I might be prepared to make a good argument for it being the correct course of action depending on how numbers looked actually,🤷🏻‍♂️
 

 

Enough said. You wouldn't mind sacrificing a large number of vulnerable folk when we don't even know if it would solve the problem. Nice.

[fabienleclerq]

23 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

 

Yet, what little did come out of China seemed to indicate that a very high percentage of deaths resulted from in-house family contact (quite possibly after lockdown). Stats seem to show that in Italy households top the league when it comes to super-spreaders/young folks still living with old/vulnerable family members.

I wouldn't believe a word that came out of China tbh, the deaths reported just cant be true. It would appear the strictest lockdown are working best.

 

I've not heard the term super spreader before? Are they saying its young people spreading it and not getting I'll? 

[Spellczech]

15 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

You assume a lot, it’s  maybe better seeking clarify before making assumptions. Read the thread back you may get some clarity on your silly assumptions. 

 

At no point did I say it what should happen but would happen. Though I might be prepared to make a good argument for it being the correct course of action depending on how numbers looked actually,🤷🏻‍♂️
 

There are calculations done around these things which looks at costs. As harsh at it may seem human lives have a pound sign on them and death is quantified monetarily. The cost of impact to the economy would be weighed up  v the cost of death/sociable impact etc. Tory government (who many have criticised for prioritising economy over everything else) would most likely view the economic impact much greater impact on the majority from death perspective. Particularly when it’s capacity that influence death rate and having facilities to treat.

 

The decision would be the governments, a Tory one at the, not mine and so you can get back off your high horse and stop with the constant assumptions.

 

 

 

That is the whole problem with the herd mentality approach - it is callous and scientific, and has no element of humanity to it.  Economists can tell us the bit in bold but it is a darned sight harder to actually get us to believe it!!!!

 

You used to grow up to stories of wandering peoples abandoning their old people to freeze to death when times were hard. I wonder if these people developed into economists?

Edited April 7, 2020 by Spellczech

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, fabienleclerq said:

I wouldn't believe a word that came out of China tbh, the deaths reported just cant be true. It would appear the strictest lockdown are working best.

 

I've not heard the term super spreader before? Are they saying its young people spreading it and not getting I'll? 

 

I'm not sure what the most accepted definition is, but for me a super-spreader is someone who comes into contact with a significant number of folk on a daily basis and, at least initially, does not show symptoms of the virus so that they continue along a normal path, infecting folk as they go. It's partly due to their physiological reaction to the virus and partly due to circumstances surrounding their level of physical social interactions.

[vegas-voss]

3 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

That’s not the experts issue though. That’s the media and people, not understanding the issue

 

The information these guys are using is accurate and best understanding at a moment in time. However, things change, particularly with something so new.

 

I think we would all agree the media could be a bit more responsible reporting it, but hey they are there to make money and balanced in depth articles explaining complex issues don’t tend to sell.

 

 

That's why I wish they wouldn't talk to the media though.Do their  job and leave the questions to Whitty and co.

[vegas-voss]

7 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

I wouldn't believe a word that came out of China tbh, the deaths reported just cant be true. It would appear the strictest lockdown are working best.

 

I've not heard the term super spreader before? Are they saying its young people spreading it and not getting I'll? 

I thinking they have only reported hospital deaths.When they open open houses in Wuhan tomorrow I reckon they will find a lot of dead

[DarthVodka]

11 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 

Exactly I'm sure we will find out soon enough roughly how long it lasts.

 

Does show how bat shit mental 'herd immunity' plan is though.

 

Could be wave after wave

 

Exactly - Herd immunity was a crazy idea when they knew so little about it and in reality still don't know how it will go long term. 

 

This would work if it was just a common illness like the cold 99.9% people recover from, but its not. There are diseases it just wont work with - measles as an example

 

I've said before how they handle the removal of restrictions will be very difficult due to waves of reinfection - specifically when there is someone who doesn't listen to the science over the pond.  

 

IF we do see immunity in people who have had it its promising but if not, a vaccine is without doubt needed as viral infections and notoriously hard to treat and have very limited drugs that actually work

 

[redjambo]

Just now, Lord BJ said:

😂 
 

Stop making things up, where did I say I wouldn’t ‘mind’ sacrificing large numbers of people? It would be a horrible decision that would need to be made. Tough times call for tough decisions.

 

However, if I was to make that argument or be in that position I would certainly have better idea of what course  of actions was best and numbers, chances for success. That’s why I said I ‘might’ be prepared to make that argument. 

 

Your arguing over something I have never said or implied. Your just making random claims up.

 

Yes, and much easier for folk like you for whom people are merely statistics. It must be interesting leading a life with little to no empathy for one's fellow human beings.

[Jambof3tornado]

44 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

That's 14 days for Gove 

Family member to be tested surely?

 

We've a few off at work due to partners etc showing symptoms but only one of them actually got tested.

[Pasquale for King]

13 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

That is the whole problem with the herd mentality approach - it is callous and scientific, and has no element of humanity to it.  Economists can tell us the bit in bold but it is a darned sight harder to actually get us to believe it!!!!

 

You used to grow up to stories of wandering peoples abandoning their old people to freeze to death when times were hard. I wonder if these people developed into economists?

That’s how most economists think, they see stuff in black and white. 
Political strategists seem to be going the same way.

[Morgan]

14 hours ago, Konrad von Carstein said:

Nice response Morgan! 👌

 

14 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Shat it!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Tommy Brown and @Mad Dog Logan

 

  I got the wrong end of the stick last night, thought an apology was in order.

[Shanks]

13 minutes ago, DarthVodka said:

 

Exactly - Herd immunity was a crazy idea when they knew so little about it and in reality still don't know how it will go long term. 

 

This would work if it was just a common illness like the cold 99.9% people recover from, but its not. There are diseases it just wont work with - measles as an example

 

I've said before how they handle the removal of restrictions will be very difficult due to waves of reinfection - specifically when there is someone who doesn't listen to the science over the pond.  

 

IF we do see immunity in people who have had it its promising but if not, a vaccine is without doubt needed as viral infections and notoriously hard to treat and have very limited drugs that actually work

 

 

Agree with all your points but is it not just as difficult to make a vaccine? Have we made one before for a coronavirus?

 

My knowledge is fairly limited but my understanding is this isnt going to be easy. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Belgium & Holland starting to look a bit grim now.

 

Belgium reported 403 deaths yesterday & Holland 234 and at current rates both will surpass the Chinese death total within the next 2 to 4 days.

 

Swedish deaths beginning to rise steadily now as well 76 yesterday & 114 today.

[Cade]

Trump threatens sanctions on India and forces them to allow export of that hydroxychloroquine drug that he's convinced himself is a cure for Covid-19 despite no medical evidence.

 

He's so vain that he's desperate to flood the USA with this unproven drug so that when the outbreak naturally slows down of its own accord, he'll then claim it was him and his big brain and that drug that did it.

 

 

[ArcticJambo]

38 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

I wouldn't believe a word that came out of China tbh, the deaths reported just cant be true. It would appear the strictest lockdown are working best.

 

I've not heard the term super spreader before? Are they saying its young people spreading it and not getting I'll? 

True, Chinese info/data probably should be viewed with a degree of scepticism, though on the 75-90% figure they put out re: where they died (at home locked-up) seems to fly in the face of reason. Edit: We got lockdown right but we pretty much killed every vulnerable person related to those already infected!)  I guess what I'm trying to convey is that quick-fire full on lockdown might just have forced a population where widespread contagion already existed, and especially those young folks (potential 'super-spreaders', yes asymptomatic/mild) in amongst the vulnerable.  Not saying it wouldn't have happened /////// (meant eventually) or that the UK govt got the timing wrong, there's just so many unknowns at this point.

 

Ultimately, the actual death figures (and probably not for at least another year to allow for proper review) will determine how successful the approach has been (and not just in this country). I happen to think the virus has probably been around in this country for a bit longer than folks think.  Does anybody know, based on the general chat, if anti-body testing has the ability to determine how long the virus has been in one's system.  I seem to recall reading something about that potential capability.

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by ArcticJambo

[Mikey1874]

16 minutes ago, Jambof3tornado said:

Family member to be tested surely?

 

We've a few off at work due to partners etc showing symptoms but only one of them actually got tested.

 

7 days if you have symptoms

 

14 days if you are family member of someone with symptoms (because you have virus around 5/6 days before you show symptoms)

[JimmyCant]

30 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I totally agree. However, that why economists and scientists aren’t making the decision and it’s our elected officials. They get the info from the experts and make the decisions with that which should include the humanity perspective.

The economists and scientists would advocate what essentially would be a cull of the weak and vulnerable (thousands of them who would not otherwise die or be infected) so that the strong and healthy can can get out of their houses get back to work and go about their business and start watching football again ? Does this include their own families or do they get to go to some isolation village somewhere till it all passes off and the expendable bodies are buried ?

 

You’re serious too aren’t you ?

Edited April 7, 2020 by JimmyCant

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

True, Chinese info/data probably should be viewed with a degree of scepticism, though on the 75-90% figure they put out re: where they died (at home locked-up) seems to fly in the face of reason.  I guess what I'm trying to convey is that quick-fire full on lockdown might just have forced a population where widespread contagion already existed, and especially those young folks (potential 'super-spreaders', yes asymptomatic/mild) in amongst the vulnerable.  Not saying it wouldn't have happened earlier or that the UK govt got the timing wrong, there's just so many unknowns at this point.

 

Ultimately, the actual death figures (and probably not for at least another year to allow for proper review) will determine how successful the approach has been (and not just in this country). I happen to think the virus has probably been around in this country for a bit longer than folks think.  Does anybody know, based on the general chat, if anti-body testing has the ability to determine how long the virus has been in one's system.  I seem to recall reading something about that potential capability.

 

All countries report in different ways, and that's before you get to ability and will to be accurate in a massive country like China. Even here we only include those hospitalised and diagnosed,  so those who died in that care home weren't included for example.

[Francis Albert]

27 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

That is the whole problem with the herd mentality approach - it is callous and scientific, and has no element of humanity to it.  Economists can tell us the bit in bold but it is a darned sight harder to actually get us to believe it!!!!

 

You used to grow up to stories of wandering peoples abandoning their old people to freeze to death when times were hard. I wonder if these people developed into economists?

Lots of government decisions are and have always been taken based on a monetary value of life basis, here and elsewhere and under governments of every political persuasion. We could save lives by investing huge amounts of money on all sorts of things but judgments have to be made on how much and on what including on improving the quality of peoples' lives as well as prolonging it. 

Welcome to the real world.

[Pasquale for King]

22 minutes ago, Jambof3tornado said:

Family member to be tested surely?

 

We've a few off at work due to partners etc showing symptoms but only one of them actually got tested.

Why should his family member be tested as opposed to everyone else? The advice is to everyone who’s come into contact with them to self isolate. Not having to see him for 14 days is surely some good news for everyone.

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Your just making stuff up again. People are merely statics to me,😂, I have never said or even suggested that. 
 

I don’t know how interesting that life would be. Probably best speaking to someone who applies to.
 

Might be better if you discuss what I say instead of making stuff up.

 

You just don't get it, do you? You yourself said that you might be prepared to make a good argument for letting the virus rip through the country as the correct course of action depending on how numbers looked actually.

 

Now (just to make easier for you to follow), here's the bit that I'm saying...

 

You would countenance this despite that such a course of action would necessarily cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of elderly folk and those with underlying health conditions who would die if they caught the virus, whether the NHS can cope with their numbers or not (it is not the coping that counts, it's the coping plus having an effective treatment that will work in almost all cases that counts).

 

You would also countenance this even though we do not actually know how long immunity to this particular coronavirus would last and whether or not the virus might or might not mutate into a strain for which a new round of immunity would be needed.

 

Neither of these aspects entered your equation (and I use that term "equation" expressly). It's all down to the numbers for you, i.e. how many folk would have to die for us to achieve herd immunity (a million, well I don't know, a few hundred thousand - that sounds much better!). A sacrifice is always easier if made by other people than yourself. It's all statistics. Not even a hint of a suggestion that such an approach might not be the best one to take, whether or not the statistics are actually in your favour or not.

 

A decision is not just all about the numbers. The decision might be the inherently wrong one to take in the first place. We cannot, with our current scientific and technical ability, achieve herd immunity by letting the virus run through the community without a very large number of deaths. For that reason alone, it should not be considered, particularly if you value human life.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

6 minutes ago, Barack said:

We'll never truly know what the Chinese death total is/was.

 

The Chinese Government being open and transparent...?

 

 

I think the only certainty (imo) here is that the 'official' figure is a pile of BS, that is why I made a reference to the Chinese total.

Multiply the 'official' figure by 10 and you might just be getting close to the real figure.

But nobody, probably even the Chinese themselves will ever truly know, for sure.

[ArcticJambo]

3 minutes ago, Smithee said:

All countries report in different ways, and that's before you get to ability and will to be accurate in a massive country like China. Even here we only include those hospitalised and diagnosed,  so those who died in that care home weren't included for example.

You could even hypothesise that China was willing to sacrifice those in Wuhan to save their country at large, 'knowing full well' that the action they took would literally kill some of their citizens, a price they were willing to pay.  Stereotypical I know but callous but neecessary!?

[Ehllhayapeh]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

 

I’ll be honest this is the bit I struggle with. Despite claims to the contrary. The lockdown isn’t about killing of Coronavirus it’s about enabling the NHS to cope. If the NHS could cope now we would let  this thing rip through the country as fast as possible.

 

Herd Immunity will happen naturally to a degree during lockdown. Maybe If they reduce the lockdown in stages it will increase that aspect. I also pretty sure their is a strong view that infectious rate  of this does reduce in the warmer weather, so maybe with these factors it will continue to go through the country at a reduced rate at which we can deal with it. 

 

No idea in reality

 

I still think antibody test is how we get out of this but we can’t see how we stay on lockdown until that’s available I wouldn’t have though. 

 

 

Not sure what the warmer weather theory is based on.

 

Plenty of warm countries have massive issues with this. I think expecting warm weather to help is wishful thinking.

 

Unfortunately many, of which Mexico is a prime example, are also countries that are under reporting and not systematically testing for the virus.

 

So, I wouldnt hope for a scottish summer to slow it down as its 28c here now and it isnt preventing the illness, whether the "real" figure is significantly less than in colder countries I dont know as the likes of Ecuador, Mexico are not being honest about the numbers.

 

Chile is in summer just now so that might be the best barometer as I have a bit more faith in their reporting.

[Jeff]

3 minutes ago, Ehllhayapeh said:

Not sure what the warmer weather theory is based on.

 

Plenty of warm countries have massive issues with this. I think expecting warm weather to help is wishful thinking.

 

Unfortunately many, of which Mexico is a prime example, are also countries that are under reporting and not systematically testing for the virus.

 

So, I wouldnt hope for a scottish summer to slow it down as its 28c here now and it isnt preventing the illness, whether the "real" figure is significantly less than in colder countries I dont know as the likes of Ecuador, Mexico are not being honest about the numbers.

 

Chile is in summer just now so that might be the best barometer as I have a bit more faith in their reporting.

 

NZ and Australia's numbers seem relatively low but I'm still skeptical

[Francis Albert]

For those dismissing herd immunity as a crazy idea how did some parts of the world develop, long before vaccines  were dreamt of,  widespread immunity against diseases that wiped out peoples in other parts of the world when they encountered the disease. Although it would be crazy to sit back and assume it will solve the problem, until a vaccine is widely available it is pretty much all we have got to hope for.

[redjambo]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

For those dismissing herd immunity as a crazy idea how did some parts of the world develop, long before vaccines  were dreamt of,  widespread immunity against diseases that wiped out peoples in other parts of the world when they encountered the disease. Although it would be crazy to sit back and assume it will solve the problem, until a vaccine is widely available it is pretty much all we have got to hope for.

 

Indeed. The term "wiped out" being the relevant one. Something we should by all means avoid if we can, I would have thought.

 

If we can contain this until a vaccine is available, we should get through it.

 

Remember as well that it is certainly not outside the realms of possibility that the virus could mutate into a strain with a milder payload.

 

I still hold that those advocating herd immunity achieved through infection rather than vaccination are, almost to a man or woman, those who are fairly sure that they wouldn't be any of the ones to be "culled" under such an approach.

 

[DarthVodka]

26 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 

Agree with all your points but is it not just as difficult to make a vaccine? Have we made one before for a coronavirus?

 

My knowledge is fairly limited but my understanding is this isnt going to be easy. 

 

I don't think there is any previous vaccines for a coronavirus - but if there is not it is just likely there was no need to as its done nothing but cause a common cold.  For measles and smallpox for example - these are horrific so the need was real.  

 

To create the vaccine what is really needed is to study people who have had it and recovered, so these antibody tests are key (plus if these antibodies give long term protection).  There are several ways a vaccine can be made up (viral proteins, RNA fragments, live/attenuated viruses), but its the antibody study that helps - what does the human body create antibodies to naturally.  Vaccines essentially trick the body into creating antibodies so if it comes across the same trigger in real life, it recognises and wipes the virus out before it can cause issues.  Creating the vaccine is obviously trial and error and a lot harder in practice and needs animal and human safety testing

[milky_26]

latest figures for scotland show 74 more deaths,total is now 296 this i assume is the figures catching up with the weekend

Edited April 7, 2020 by milky_26

[scott herbertson]

Just now, milky_26 said:

latest figures for scotland show 74 more deaths,total is now 296 this i assume is the figures catching up with the weekend

 

 

Yes - that's what the First Minister said. On a more positive note ICU units have 199 Coronavirus patients in - same as yesterday and only 2 more than the day before. Early to be sure but does look like the lockdown might have worked in preventing a continuing spread.

[redjambo]

There was a large jump today in the Scottish figure for deaths due to coronavirus from 222 to 296.

 

However, do remember that the stats were limited at the weekend due to reporting and that, effectively, imo, Saturday to Tuesday should all be considered together and averaged out. Hopefully the new measures in place will reduce such "weekend anomalies" in future.

Edited April 7, 2020 by redjambo

[Cruyff]

Can't see it averaging out at all. The incubation period for this thing is like a month. Plenty more will fall ill and wonder how they caught it despite being in isolation. 

[JimmyCant]

30 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

There have been some studies done it. It’s not straightforward and just based on temperature, however, transmission does appear slower in certain climates. Whether that’s coincidence or not I accept it’s difficult to tell. An element of proof will be in the pudding of all this stuff. 

What studies and what countries are you talking about ?  Most of Africa is weeks behind the developed world with very few yet having numbers that could be studied effectively. Cameroon is a good example approaching numbers that could be learned from. First spike 20th March and doubled every 4 days since. That’s in the same ballpark as countries with big numbers. There isn’t much yet in the Southern Hemisphere or the tropics that anyone could discern anything at all about the infection rate per capita and make a judgement on whether the climate had an impact one way or the other.

 

then youVe  got Egypt with rapidly growing numbers Approaching 2000 right next door to Libya with not much more than a handful, although that’s probably a recording issue as well as a cultural difference.

Edited April 7, 2020 by JimmyCant

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Cruyff said:

Can't see it averaging out at all. The incubation period for this thing is like a month. Plenty more will fall ill and wonder how they caught it despite being in isolation. 

 

Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

[Dagger Is Back]

1 hour ago, vegas-voss said:

Would like to  just trust what the experts say but when you have Ferguson change from one interview to the next it just feels like they don't know.Actually think it would be better if all of these experts apart from Whitty or his deputy just kept quite as the press can make the story far different to what the interview was.

 

The media have a lot to answer for in their search for clicks/bites.  There should be one voice you're right

[BlackJAC?]

There really are some utter welts out there still.

 

Went to the garage this morning because it looked empty to get a coffee.  As I was waiting for the coffee, a women that must have been in her 50's came in.  Heard her talking to the cashier, then the next thing i know, she is breathing down my neck waiting for her turn on the machine. Even without all this **** going on, I would have still said something had the person invaded my personal space like that. Such as asking her "is there a problem" etc.  She was so close, I felt her brushing against me when she was stood behind me.

 

I turned around and asked her to step back.  The garage was empty apart from me, her and the cashier. She looked at me and did nothing.  I then asked her again in a raised voice if she would step back,  She took one step back, then the cashier came and asked her to stand on the 2m tape.  She did, but said nothing.  She had stepped out of a brand new Range Rover, so she wasn't some thick as **** druggie from some estate and she sounded well spoken from the conversation she had had with the cashier.

[Shanks]

22 minutes ago, DarthVodka said:

 

I don't think there is any previous vaccines for a coronavirus - but if there is not it is just likely there was no need to as its done nothing but cause a common cold.  For measles and smallpox for example - these are horrific so the need was real.  

 

To create the vaccine what is really needed is to study people who have had it and recovered, so these antibody tests are key (plus if these antibodies give long term protection).  There are several ways a vaccine can be made up (viral proteins, RNA fragments, live/attenuated viruses), but its the antibody study that helps - what does the human body create antibodies to naturally.  Vaccines essentially trick the body into creating antibodies so if it comes across the same trigger in real life, it recognises and wipes the virus out before it can cause issues.  Creating the vaccine is obviously trial and error and a lot harder in practice and needs animal and human safety testing

 

 

Thanks for the reply, very informative.

 

Its still pretty concerning that we haven't been able to/ haven't bothered to successfully create a vaccine for any coronavirus.  A bit of an unknown but what other choice do we have?  

[Dazo]

2 minutes ago, BlackJAC? said:

There really are some utter welts out there still.

 

Went to the garage this morning because it looked empty to get a coffee.  As I was waiting for the coffee, a women that must have been in her 50's came in.  Heard her talking to the cashier, then the next thing i know, she is breathing down my neck waiting for her turn on the machine. Even without all this **** going on, I would have still said something had the person invaded my personal space like that. Such as asking her "is there a problem" etc.  She was so close, I felt her brushing against me when she was stood behind me.

 

I turned around and asked her to step back.  The garage was empty apart from me, her and the cashier. She looked at me and did nothing.  I then asked her again in a raised voice if she would step back,  She took one step back, then the cashier came and asked her to stand on the 2m tape.  She did, but said nothing.  She had stepped out of a brand new Range Rover, so she wasn't some thick as **** druggie from some estate and she sounded well spoken from the conversation she had had with the cashier.

Maybe needlessly going into the garage was your warning sign unless going for a coffee is essential at this time is it ? 🙄