Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[vegas-voss]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Can't see that not being the case.    Would not be surprised if the next 7 day total exceeds 12,000.    We're on course for a much higher toll than Italy and Spain.

Fact they have said they won't know if this lockdown is working until next week is telling it ain't getting better anytime soon

[AlimOzturk]

1 minute ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Why will we be the worst hit exactly? 

 

In terms of the death toll i meant. Just the way the numbers are going.

 

 

[OBE]

21 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

Yeah i noticed that. Belgium seem to wracking up the numbers as well

 

Thanks for that update Gordon, did you enjoy your run?

[Victorian]

Just now, vegas-voss said:

Fact they have said they won't know if this lockdown is working until next week is telling it ain't getting better anytime soon

 

The back end is starting to show some progress but,   as we all now know,   it takes weeks for it to translate through to the front end.     It's those sort of figures for 7-14 days then.    Horrific.

[AlimOzturk]

8 minutes ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

 

Thanks for that update Gordon, did you enjoy your run?

 

Gordon? Not sure what your getting at there

 

Actually the run was ****ing terrible. I fell a ****er and scraped my knee and elbow and pretty much wrecked my newish phone. Thankfully insured. No sign of Covid 19 though

 

Maybe my own doing for being a smart arse earlier  😐

Edited April 8, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[flecktimus]

The tables i posted last night where wrong as i started my tables from the first death reported. I learnt last night that all the official tables start from 10+ total deaths. The new table shows that we are already well ahead of Italy before reaching Italy's peak.

 

Date	Deaths	D/Deaths	Deaths	D/Deaths	Date	Diferance
	Italy			UK
26-Feb	12	#VALUE!	10	21	14-Mar	-9
27-Feb	17	5	14	35	15-Mar	-18
28-Feb	21	4	20	55	16-Mar	-34
29-Feb	29	8	16	71	17-Mar	-42
01-Mar	34	5	33	104	18-Mar	-70
02-Mar	52	18	40	144	19-Mar	-92
03-Mar	79	27	33	177	20-Mar	-98
04-Mar	107	28	56	233	21-Mar	-126
05-Mar	148	41	48	281	22-Mar	-133
06-Mar	197	49	54	335	23-Mar	-138
07-Mar	233	36	87	422	24-Mar	-189
08-Mar	366	133	41	463	25-Mar	-97
09-Mar	463	97	115	578	26-Mar	-115
10-Mar	631	168	181	759	27-Mar	-128
11-Mar	827	196	260	1019	28-Mar	-192
12-Mar	1015	188	209	1228	29-Mar	-213
13-Mar	1266	251	180	1408	30-Mar	-142
14-Mar	1441	175	381	1789	31-Mar	-348
15-Mar	1809	368	563	2352	01-Apr	-543
16-Mar	2158	349	569	2921	02-Apr	-763
17-Mar	2503	345	684	3605	03-Apr	-1102
18-Mar	2979	476	708	4313	04-Apr	-1334
19-Mar	3405	426	621	4934	05-Apr	-1529
20-Mar	4032	627	439	5373	06-Apr	-1341
21-Mar	4825	793	786	6159	07-Apr	-1334
22-Mar	5476	651	938	7097	08-Apr	-1621
23-Mar	6077	601			09-Apr
24-Mar	6820	743			10-Apr
25-Mar	7503	683			11-Apr
26-Mar	8215	712			12-Apr
27-Mar	9134	919			13-Apr
28-Mar	10023	889			14-Apr
29-Mar	10779	756			15-Apr
30-Mar	11591	812			16-Apr
31-Mar	12428	837
01-Apr	13155	727
02-Apr	13915	760
03-Apr	14681	766
04-Apr	15362	681
05-Apr	15887	525
06-Apr	16523	636
07-Apr	17127	604
08-Apr	17669	542

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by flecktimus

[J.T.F.Robertson]

42 minutes ago, Morgan said:

Great stuff.

 

Nice to see a story like that amidst all the gloom

 

Saved me typing. (although it hasnae, really )

 

[Morgan]

7 minutes ago, J.T.F.Robertson said:

 

Saved me typing. (although it hasnae, really )

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

I was totally unaware of this until I heard a guest on Sky News mentioned it.

 

Seemingly Taiwan warned the WHO on the 31 December that there was evidence of human to human transmission.
WHO ignored the warnings because Taiwan isn't a member of the WHO because China has blocked their entry.

In mid January WHO said that there might be limited human to human transmission.

But It wasn't until 20 January that China finally admitted that there was confirmed human to human transmission.

 

3 weeks of vital time was lost by the WHO, 3 weeks when millions of Chinese could have been travelling all over the World spreading the virus as they go, and WHO for political reasons ignored the warnings.

https://www.ft.com/content/2a70a02a-644a-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

 

[The Internet]

Everyone ignored the warnings about this. No one in the western world took it seriously.

[Walter Bishop]

We will be coming into the period now where anyone at Cheltenham, last football matches, concerts, last week before lockdown etc will be falling ill based on the 3-4 weeks it takes to get seriously ill. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 minute ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Everyone ignored the warnings about this. No one in the western world took it seriously.

 

The WHO played down the warnings. 

[Spellczech]

If the Daily Mail is right then even if Boris makes it he ought to be taken out back to a firing squad...

 

[Cade]

Well that's what you get after 10 years of Tory rule and gobshite "austerity"

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Cade

[Jambo-Jimbo]

A different link to this Taiwan WHO story, the FT one is behind a paywall.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/who-refused-to-act-on-taiwans-virus-alert/

 

[OBE]

18 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

Gordon? Not sure what your getting at there

 

Actually the run was ****ing terrible. I fell a ****er and scraped my knee and elbow and pretty much wrecked my newish phone. Thankfully insured. No sign of Covid 19 though

 

Maybe my own doing for being a smart arse earlier  😐

 

It isn't necessary that you get it. Mind how you go on your future runs, sounds nasty and a bit careless. 

[flecktimus]

12 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

If the Daily Mail is right then even if Boris makes it he ought to be taken out back to a firing squad...

 

That's mind blowing, i cant believe we will hit those numbers.

[scott herbertson]

Just now, flecktimus said:

That's mind blowing, i cant believe we will hit those numbers.

 

 

I also think the Italian, French and Spanish numbers look too low - only 1700 more deaths in Italy - no chance - they had over 500 yesterday alone

[graygo]

4 hours ago, Bongo 1874 said:

No no no i don't agree with that one bit, when as a nation are we going to get our fingers out of our arse, they are basing people in hospital with suspected or confirmed, there is nothing to say they haven't had different complications, or when they go to hospital they end up picking up the virus. 

 

What a fecking shambles our country is an utter fecking shambles, the amount of community testing that could be done with everyone sitting at home, with there thumbs up there ass. 

 

It's driving me fecking crazy we can't even test out front line nhs staff properly, jesus tonight chicken and fecking rice. 

 

I tell you what guys the longer this goes on, and the less inactivity we get as human beings, it's not going to matter how much exercise you do a day, people are going to be admitted on other stuff. 

 

There is no solution on a way out of this basically it's a case of counting down the days, and hoping you don't get it. 

 

 

 

If you believe that last bit to be true then why is our country a shambles?

[flecktimus]

2 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

I also think the Italian, French and Spanish numbers look too low - only 1700 more deaths in Italy - no chance - they had over 500 yesterday alone

Daily Mail. We will leave it at that

[Victorian]

We could have something like those numbers but as a running total later in the year,   or after a second wave after lockdown.    We're well on the way towards that.

[Bongo 1874]

4 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

If you believe that last bit to be true then why is our country a shambles?

Because like other countries we didn't take it seriously, see the consequences. Edit 

 

Say we slowly go back to how it was, where does that leave elderly people, and people at high risk will we just allow them to come out again, or are they on house arrest for the rest of there life's?.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Bongo 1874

[flecktimus]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

We could have something like those numbers but as a running total later in the year,   or after a second wave after lockdown.    We're well on the way towards that.

My thoughts have now sort of turned to the second wave.Watching China very closely.

[Bongo 1874]

3 minutes ago, flecktimus said:

My thoughts have now sort of turned to the second wave.Watching China very closely.

Yeah. 

[vegas-voss]

17 minutes ago, flecktimus said:

That's mind blowing, i cant believe we will hit those numbers.

I wonder if they have come up with those numbers because of the lack of beds we have compared to other big nations

[Walter Bishop]

32 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

If the Daily Mail is right then even if Boris makes it he ought to be taken out back to a firing squad...

 

That's from IMHE they predict we will have 60,000 by end of this month. 

[scott herbertson]

Just now, vegas-voss said:

I wonder if they have come up with those numbers because of the lack of beds we have compared to other big nations

 

 

I believe it was more on the basis that we did not lock down early enough (see also Sweden)

[DETTY29]

35 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

If the Daily Mail is right then even if Boris makes it he ought to be taken out back to a firing squad...

 

Beds available that's the 'criminal' figure

 

Now what would be handy would be comparison from end Thatcher era through to now.

 

Edit - if that figure is reliable as I'm not convinced on the others as it is.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by DETTY29

[The Mighty Thor]

3 hours ago, annushorribilis III said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF

 

If this article is true, it's a damning article ...

 

Some of the stuff that leapt out at me ...

 

 

Two days later, China put the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began, into a complete lockdown. Hubei, the surrounding province, would follow. But already, 17 passenger flights had flown directly from Wuhan to Britain since the start of 2020, and 614 flights from the whole of China, according to FlightRadar24, a flight-tracking service. That meant thousands of Chinese, some of them potential carriers, had come to Britain. On April 5, scientific adviser Ferguson said he estimated only one-third of infected people reaching Britain had been detected

 

 

“We had milder interventions in place,” said Edmunds, because no one thought it would be acceptable politically “to shut the country down.” He added: “We didn’t model it because it didn’t seem to be on the agenda. And Imperial (College) didn’t look at it either.” The NERVTAG committee agreed, noting in its minutes that tough measures in the short term would be pointless, as they “would only delay the UK outbreak, not prevent it.”

 

By the end of January, the government’s chief medical adviser, Whitty, was explaining to politicians in private, according to at least two people who spoke to him, that if the virus escaped China, it would in time infect the great majority of people in Britain. It could only be slowed down, not stopped. On Jan 30, the government raised the threat level to “moderate” from “low.

Unbelievably there was 9 flights into Heathrow before 10.30am today from the current epicentre of the global pandemic the good ol US of A.

 

No quarantine. No checks. 

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

I believe it was more on the basis that we did not lock down early enough (see also Sweden)

 

A comparison of the relative lockdown dates in the different European countries:

 

[dobmisterdobster]

Take any reports from China with a silo full of salt.

[DETTY29]

1 minute ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Unbelievably there was 9 flights into Heathrow before 10.30am today from the current epicentre of the global pandemic the good ol US of A.

 

No quarantine. No checks. 

South Korea you are taken away and tested immediately.  And then quarantined if need be.

 

The South Koreans are shaking their heads at notably ours and the USAs approach.

 

Of course, President Bawbag announced that countries including South Korea were ringing him up to congratulate him and taking the best approach.

[Victorian]

It's all about travel.   China's second wave will be driven by inward travel.   They have a 1.7bn population to transmit and incubate it to a tremendous level.   Then everyone else will get clobbered by inward travel from China and secondary epidemics elsewhere.

 

Unless we have the gumption to keep on top of it.    Confident?    Me neither.

[Spellczech]

9 minutes ago, Walter Bishop said:

That's from IMHE they predict we will have 60,000 by end of this month. 

Probably - Daily Mail is a Tory tabloid. I don't know about the other countries but those UK shortfalls are shocking...

[vegas-voss]

9 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

I believe it was more on the basis that we did not lock down early enough (see also Sweden)

Aye Sweden and Netherlands but they are still nothing compared to the numbers predicted for UK deaths

[graygo]

23 minutes ago, Bongo 1874 said:

Because like other countries we didn't take it seriously, see the consequences. Edit 

 

Say we slowly go back to how it was, where does that leave elderly people, and people at high risk will we just allow them to come out again, or are they on house arrest for the rest of there life's?.

 

What's your solution then? Lockdown until a vaccine is found?

If we had acted as soon as the first case was recorded how do you think things would play out?

[redjambo]

Just now, graygo said:

 

What's your solution then? Lockdown until a vaccine is found?

If we had acted as soon as the first case was recorded how do you think things would play out?

 

I'm hoping that we have enough data after all this that we can run through various models and see exactly what would have happened in that case.

 

And of course we need to have the mother of all public inquiries.

 

On a related point, I would also hope at the very least that all those in Government circles who promoted herd immunity through infection at the start of all this will no longer be in positions of power once it finished.

 

[Victorian]

I do wonder if the policy making of western countries would have been different if it had not been the initial belief that this would mostly affect a nett wealth recipient demographic.    

 

Economies need their wealth creators and their taxpayers.    More so than the ones being rewarded for their years of creating wealth and paying tax.

[Cade]

If we'd quarantined infected persons, run contact tracing then localised mass testing on everybody they'd come into contact with then it could have been contained or slowed to a crawl.

 

Instead, our idiots in Downing St chose to let it run wild so "herd immunity" could be reached.

 

[scott herbertson]

4 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

What's your solution then? Lockdown until a vaccine is found?

If we had acted as soon as the first case was recorded how do you think things would play out?

 

 

There's no magic solution but we should surely have taken the opportunities to slow the initial spread and buy the time to get proper PPE and more ICU beds and more respirators. We could also have had much more extensive testing of key staff to maximise capacity and also utilise best who had had it already. All those measures would have bought us more time before a vaccine is found

[Ehllhayapeh]

12 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Take any reports from China with a silo full of salt.

 

Ive lived in China (Guangzhou) and I would go as far as to say dont take even with a barn full of salt. It will be bs, it will be unreliable and it will be designed to downplay any suggestion of non perfection by the party.

 

We had a number of incidents towards the end of our time where GZ had a few days of the kinds of pollution levels Beijing usually had. Officially in china, it was at 105 in GZ. In my chest it was a pain to breathe and via VPN I discovered overseas reporting of air to be at 210 which would close schools and result in lockdown. This didnt happen as the chinese number was the official one used.

 

There is no way I trust a single thing that country ever says. Qatar is about the same. 50c shuts things down and its perpetually 49c even when the thermometer says 55c.

 

 

[Victorian]

Just now, Cade said:

If we'd quarantined infected persons, run contact tracing then localised mass testing on everybody they'd come into contact with then it could have been contained or slowed to a crawl.

 

Instead, our idiots in Downing St chose to let it run wild so "herd immunity" could be reached.

 

 

To be fair,   a really,  really good contain stage like that does save lives but it also shields the majority from exposure.    Later on,   those people still have to be exposed at some point.     It's unavoidable unless every single case is treated and it is eradicated.    

[Victorian]

Germany and other places seem to have done much better at contain and delay.    But they all need to take their chances with this virus at some point.    Contain and delay gives a better chance for people at the sharp end.    That's really all.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

29 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Beds available that's the 'criminal' figure

 

Now what would be handy would be comparison from end Thatcher era through to now.

 

Edit - if that figure is reliable as I'm not convinced on the others as it is.

 

 

 

Not sure what they are classing as 'beds available', because England alone has over 127,000 hospital beds available.

Scotland has over 13,000 acute care hospital beds.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-uk-nhs-beds

 

So I don't know where they are getting that the UK has only 17,000 available beds from.

[Spellczech]

11 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Germany and other places seem to have done much better at contain and delay.    But they all need to take their chances with this virus at some point.    Contain and delay gives a better chance for people at the sharp end.    That's really all.

We did not do Contain at all. By the time they were even talking about "Contain" we'd had flights coming in from China for weeks and Italy for a fortnight without any checks whatsoever. It is a joke to even suggest there  even was a "Contain" stage in the UK...A week after they first mentioned contain we were in Lockdown!

 

It is not even accurate to say they dithered. They plain and simple threw us to the wolves!

[Cade]

17 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

To be fair,   a really,  really good contain stage like that does save lives but it also shields the majority from exposure.    Later on,   those people still have to be exposed at some point.     It's unavoidable unless every single case is treated and it is eradicated.    

Considering the shite state of our health service, we needed to buy as much time as we could to ramp up PPE, ventilators and other gear for the NHS; not pursue some insane drivel about herd immunity and let it run wild across the country for the best part of a month.

[Victorian]

I agree with both.    There is no magic outcome but we certainly should have been much better prepared and attempted to contain.     

[Jambof3tornado]

28 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Germany and other places seem to have done much better at contain and delay.    But they all need to take their chances with this virus at some point.    Contain and delay gives a better chance for people at the sharp end.    That's really all.

Germany werent counting old folk that died who clearly had covid19 related issues!!

 

Getting the contain right is all about opinions, I think we nearly got it right.

[Victorian]

Contact tracing is obviously good but you can't do total contact tracing.    Some workers are still coming into contact,  to some degree,  with lots of strangers throughout the day.    Shop workers,  etc.    Unlimited capacity to repeatedly test will have more benefit with some people.    

[graygo]

40 minutes ago, Cade said:

If we'd quarantined infected persons, run contact tracing then localised mass testing on everybody they'd come into contact with then it could have been contained or slowed to a crawl.

 

Instead, our idiots in Downing St chose to let it run wild so "herd immunity" could be reached.

 

 

40 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

There's no magic solution but we should surely have taken the opportunities to slow the initial spread and buy the time to get proper PPE and more ICU beds and more respirators. We could also have had much more extensive testing of key staff to maximise capacity and also utilise best who had had it already. All those measures would have bought us more time before a vaccine is found

 

Sounds great but where are all these test kits coming from?