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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


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Just now, Taffin said:

Doesn't a tsunami have a low amplitude and long wavelength? Almost the opposite of the Omicron wave.

 

They come in different sizes and energy depending what caused it and how far the wave has travelled before hitting land. Wouldn't like to see the tsunami when this happens for example: https://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/193799-volcano-las-palmas/

 

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Malinga the Swinga
1 minute ago, XB52 said:

Last time honest then I'll give up. The SG have frozen their salaries for 13 years. What the tories decide to pocket is up to them. I'm sorry you can't read, you'll probably blame the Scottish education system for that 

Very cute, I'll give you that but still digging that hole l. They have base salary frozen but are just increasing expenses, year on year to cover difference. You know that though, but are trying desperately to pretend it doesn't happen. Some claiming additional £25k and over in expenses.

If someone wants to pay me a base salary of £62k a year, plus allowing me to employ wife and kids as additional expenses, I'll settle for that. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Doesn't a tsunami have a low amplitude and long wavelength? Almost the opposite of the Omicron wave.

Oh stop it , he was just about to climax 😂😎passion killer 

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
9 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

A wee bit of data cherrypicking, perhaps? ;)

 

1585055002_Screenshotat2021-12-2217-02-49.thumb.png.b5f9c61b07f99b4c0b7613388fd0dc13.png


Pretty much the only thing consistent through the entire pandemic has been the expert held opinion that excess deaths are a very key indicator if not the key indicator so cherry-picking to the key indicator - I’ve seen worse cherry-picking attempts

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Just now, Victorian said:

Early signs are that the relevant scientists are beginning to get some of the data they need to evaluate the effects of omicron.  It appears to very,  very promising and should warrant a re-modelling of the wave and it's consequentials.

 

Precautionary actions may not last long at this rate.  

 

:)

 

 

D3A81788-6147-47FB-835D-F12AC7D977E6.gif

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18 minutes ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

What about their expenses? I would imagine they have increased, no?

Yes they have and I've already said that expenses are far too high. 

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Brighton Jambo
Just now, Taffin said:

 

Doesn't that show that excess deaths are higher per 100k in Scotland than England?

 

Or am I reading it wrongly?

Yes it does.  That’s my point.  But it doesn’t fit the narrative.  It’s like fake news.  Just claim something over and over until it becomes an accepted reality even though it’s wrong.  

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Just now, JamesM48 said:

Oh stop it , he was just about to climax 😂😎passion killer 

 

Given how much you U-turn, I'd have thought short and sweet would've been your preference in case you go off him halfway through

 

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15 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Travelling tabby.  It’s all there.  Don’t forget to subtract Scotlands excess death from the UK total when doing the comparison.  

 

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/  Select ‘Additional Death Data’.  

Got it now !

 

I won't use it as a stick to beat the SG though. The UK as a whole has a dreadful toll of deaths. The gravity of the subject, no place to point score...not that I'm suggesting you were of course !

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4 minutes ago, kila said:

 

Given how much you U-turn, I'd have thought short and sweet would've been your preference in case you go off him halfway through

 

Oh that’s one u Turn I never make dear 

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1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

I agree.  You have a perpetual quantity of egg on your face James.  More egg than the Bass Rock.

Poor come back . Disappointed. Your usually more savage than that .  The good news stats must be affecting your brain 🧠 

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8 minutes ago, kila said:

 

Given how much you U-turn, I'd have thought short and sweet would've been your preference in case you go off him halfway through

 

Btw maybe straight guys do “ Short and sweet” but that’s certainly not in my orbit . Probably too much premature ejaculation from them ( so my female mates bitch to me about ) 😎

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1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Poor come back . Disappointed. Your usually more savage than that .  The good news stats must be affecting your brain 🧠 

 

I could have gone for outright savagery but wanted to prevent an evening long odyssey of angst and self pity.  ;)

 

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Malinga the Swinga
10 minutes ago, XB52 said:

Yes they have and I've already said that expenses are far too high. 

So you agree that it's pointless bragging about a salary freeze whilst watching them scoop up evergrowing expenses. You got there in end.

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Dennis Denuto
8 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Yes it does.  That’s my point.  But it doesn’t fit the narrative.  It’s like fake news.  Just claim something over and over until it becomes an accepted reality even though it’s wrong.  

Excess deaths are a good measure but when the numbers are as close as that then you have to take into account what the death rates were in the preceding years, did that affect the calculation. Was Scotland’s going up while England went down in the preceding five years?

 

So once you’ve worked that out get back to me. 
 

My suspicion is that they are as close as makes no difference and the extra restrictions you talk about were tinkering and only a lockdown actually makes a difference. 

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer

the cost of lockdown/restrictions reflected in the lower covid deaths but higher excess deaths?

 

save one life on the telly lose 1.x life off the telly

 

not suggesting it was easy to get it right(er)


or that the data is reliable enough at this stage to perform that calculation

 

Edited by MoncurMacdonaldMercer
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16 minutes ago, kila said:

 

They come in different sizes and energy depending what caused it and how far the wave has travelled before hitting land. Wouldn't like to see the tsunami when this happens for example: https://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/193799-volcano-las-palmas/

 

 

Yes that would indeed be shocking!

 

Interesting, might go and have a read on tsunami's as beyond visiting where the 2004 and one struck Sri Lanka I've never given them much thought. 

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Brighton Jambo
15 minutes ago, Boab said:

Got it now !

 

I won't use it as a stick to beat the SG though. The UK as a whole has a dreadful toll of deaths. The gravity of the subject, no place to point score...not that I'm suggesting you were of course !

Well erm.  Of course not…

 

I don’t necessarily want to beat the Scottish government but I was keen to correct a common misconception that gets trotted out very regularly.  

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3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I could have gone for outright savagery but wanted to prevent an evening long odyssey of angst and self pity.  ;)

 

I’m busy that night . Got no time for self pity or angst . I’ll schedule it for tomorrow 👍

CD4E3263-C26B-4259-8424-719B73F25349.gif

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Francis Albert
1 hour ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

Can anyone explain how the virus only come out after a certain time? Pubs having to close early means the virus only comes out after 10 pm?

Table service means the virus can't jump between tables?

 

When they bring out rules, people would be more inclined to obey if the rules made any sense. 100 indoors but only 500 in a stadium for example. Nonsense!

The virus is incredibly clever. Sit in a bar or restaurant for hours maskless. But even if the place is empty you have to mask up to walk a few steps to the door when leaving. Because otherwise the virus will strike.

And of course the mere presence of alcohol in the place rouses the virus to action.

Edited by Francis Albert
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Footballfirst
33 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Turns out we have the highest death rate so to me it’s fair game to say these restrictions are not having the desired effect.  What’s that definition of insanity again….

Just to clarify your claim.  You started with the "highest death rate", then when challenged stated that it was "excess deaths" that you were referring to. Then you offer an an opinion that "these restrictions are not having the desired effect"  

 

As has been pointed out the TT stats show that the Covid death rate is lower in Scotland than the rest of the UK.  You are however correct to point out that the "excess deaths" rate is higher in Scotland than in England.

 

You may or may not be aware that "excess deaths" are not Covid specific, so while Scotland has a better record on Covid deaths, there have to be other causes of death that are leading to Scotland's excess death number being higher.  I haven't looked at the breakdown by cause, but I suspect that "excess" cancer deaths, heart attacks/strokes or even drug related deaths in Scotland are influencing that metric. 

 

To use the "excess death" metric to claim that "these restrictions are not having the desired effect"  is a bit of a stretch.  The excess deaths for non covid reasons COULD be related, directly or indirectly, to covid restrictions earlier in the pandemic, e.g. delayed diagnosis or treatment, but that will only be confirmed in the months and years to come.

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Just to clarify your claim.  You started with the "highest death rate", then when challenged stated that it was "excess deaths" that you were referring to. Then you offer an an opinion that "these restrictions are not having the desired effect"  

 

As has been pointed out the TT stats show that the Covid death rate is lower in Scotland than the rest of the UK.  You are however correct to point out that the "excess deaths" rate is higher in Scotland than in England.

 

You may or may not be aware that "excess deaths" are not Covid specific, so while Scotland has a better record on Covid deaths, there have to be other causes of death that are leading to Scotland's excess death number being higher.  I haven't looked at the breakdown by cause, but I suspect that "excess" cancer deaths, heart attacks/strokes or even drug related deaths in Scotland are influencing that metric. 

 

To use the "excess death" metric to claim that "these restrictions are not having the desired effect"  is a bit of a stretch.  The excess deaths for non covid reasons COULD be related, directly or indirectly, to covid restrictions earlier in the pandemic, e.g. delayed diagnosis or treatment, but that will only be confirmed in the months and years to come.


higher excess deaths are a bad thing tho ? a more important metric than cause specific deaths be that covid or folk choking on steak ? As you say the actual reasons still to be unearthed if it’s possible to ever do that with a degree of confidence

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Francis Albert
3 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Just to clarify your claim.  You started with the "highest death rate", then when challenged stated that it was "excess deaths" that you were referring to. Then you offer an an opinion that "these restrictions are not having the desired effect"  

 

As has been pointed out the TT stats show that the Covid death rate is lower in Scotland than the rest of the UK.  You are however correct to point out that the "excess deaths" rate is higher in Scotland than in England.

 

You may or may not be aware that "excess deaths" are not Covid specific, so while Scotland has a better record on Covid deaths, there have to be other causes of death that are leading to Scotland's excess death number being higher.  I haven't looked at the breakdown by cause, but I suspect that "excess" cancer deaths, heart attacks/strokes or even drug related deaths in Scotland are influencing that metric. 

 

To use the "excess death" metric to claim that "these restrictions are not having the desired effect"  is a bit of a stretch.  The excess deaths for non covid reasons COULD be related, directly or indirectly, to covid restrictions earlier in the pandemic, e.g. delayed diagnosis or treatment, but that will only be confirmed in the months and years to come.

Early In the history of Covid we were told excess deaths was the gold standard for assessing the impact of a pandemic on deaths in a pandemic. Have the goalposts moved? I am not clear why excess deaths would not in some way be related to the pandemic. What else has changed? Obviously the reaction to the pandemic which is down to the pandemic. What else?

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1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

Of course. All down to Nicola. God bless her.

It's taken a long time but at last a sensible post from you👍

It's a pity you're not able to vote SNP. 

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Dennis Denuto
49 minutes ago, kila said:

 

 

 

Fingers crossed the data continues in this way in the weeks aheadh.

 

Clear that the booster does wonders.

 

We are looking at 20k cases a day then to hit the number in hospital at the peak of delta - 1050.  Is that over simplified? We didn’t have any real restrictions then and football was in full stadiums. 
 

Are we headed for 20k a day or more?

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1 hour ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

Can anyone explain how the virus only come out after a certain time? Pubs having to close early means the virus only comes out after 10 pm?

Table service means the virus can't jump between tables?

 

When they bring out rules, people would be more inclined to obey if the rules made any sense. 100 indoors but only 500 in a stadium for example. Nonsense!

 

No-one can.  And no-one needs to, because that's not what's on their minds when they make the rules.  Restrictions are usually based on estimates of the degree of risk of spreading caused by various activities, in various places, and at various times.  They're not designed to eliminate the virus, but to dial back the degree to which people can pass it on.

 

When you see restrictions, you can usually figure out the thinking behind them.  Close pubs early because the longer people stay in them, the less inhibited they get, the more likely they are to get close to a carrier and pick up the virus.  Insist on table service because it reduces the extent to which punters will get close to other punters and the extent of direct transmission.  Some people would say that the problem with 100 indoors and 500 in a stadium is not that 500 is too small, but that 100 is too big.

 

Having said that, I don't know the science behind any individual restriction - but because I don't, I wouldn't go so far as to say that any particular restriction makes perfect sense, or indeed that it is nonsense.  Taken collectively, they're a package of measures designed to slow transmission of the virus, and seen in that way they make sense.

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Footballfirst
Just now, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:


higher excess deaths are a bad thing tho ? a more important metric than cause specific deaths be that covid or folk choking on steak ? As you say the actual reasons still to be unearthed if it’s possible to ever do that with a degree of confidence

 

Higher excess deaths are indeed a bad thing and should be the driver for investigation/action into the reasons for it.

 

I've just had a look at the weekly NRS figures published today.  They do give a breakdown by a few causes.

 

The following numbers are the excess deaths reported in Scotland during 2021 to date, compared to the 2015-2019 five year average.

 

Registered deaths: five year average (2015-2019)1    
Cancer   15,554
Dementia / Alzheimers   5,848
Circulatory (heart disease and stroke)   14,449
Respiratory   6,759
COVID-19   0
Other   12,683
All   55,294
     
Difference    
Cancer   357
Dementia / Alzheimers   -95
Circulatory (heart disease and stroke)   483
Respiratory   -1,676
COVID-19   4,701
Other   2,081
All   5,850


Cancer up,

Heart disease/stroke up,

Covid up (obviously)

"Other" up (really needs a more detailed breakdown to identify the cause(s) of this rise, e.g. drugs, suicides, accidents, murders or whatever)

The first two are a concern. Do they reflect the impact of delays to presentation, diagnosis or treatment resulting from Covid?

 

Dementia/Alzheimers down

Respiratory down 

Both of these could well have ended up in the Covid figures, e.g. those who were susceptible to dying from dementia,  influenza or pneumonia may well have succumbed to Covid instead.

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Malinga the Swinga
12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Early In the history of Covid we were told excess deaths was the gold standard for assessing the impact of a pandemic on deaths in a pandemic. Have the goalposts moved? I am not clear why excess deaths would not in some way be related to the pandemic. What else has changed? Obviously the reaction to the pandemic which is down to the pandemic. What else?

Its only the Gold Standard when it produces the results that are desired.

Sometimes it's case numbers, sometimes deaths, sometimes numbers in ICU and other times numbers in hospital.

Everyone wants numbers down, cases down, deaths and ICU down, but other than that, there's no consistency of message anywhere.

It's a mess

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Malinga the Swinga
6 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No-one can.  And no-one needs to, because that's not what's on their minds when they make the rules.  Restrictions are usually based on estimates of the degree of risk of spreading caused by various activities, in various places, and at various times.  They're not designed to eliminate the virus, but to dial back the degree to which people can pass it on.

 

When you see restrictions, you can usually figure out the thinking behind them.  Close pubs early because the longer people stay in them, the less inhibited they get, the more likely they are to get close to a carrier and pick up the virus.  Insist on table service because it reduces the extent to which punters will get close to other punters and the extent of direct transmission.  Some people would say that the problem with 100 indoors and 500 in a stadium is not that 500 is too small, but that 100 is too big.

 

Having said that, I don't know the science behind any individual restriction - but because I don't, I wouldn't go so far as to say that any particular restriction makes perfect sense, or indeed that it is nonsense.  Taken collectively, they're a package of measures designed to slow transmission of the virus, and seen in that way they make sense.

Alternatively, numbers are plucked from sky, at a whim, and are only there to point score. 

Depends on how much trust you have in those producing them.

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Malinga the Swinga
Just now, Barack said:

106,122 cases in 24 hours.

 

:sadrobbo:

 

Records are there to be broken, tbf.

What was percentage of tests undertaken to produce them and what are hospitalised numbers?

Are we seeing a consistent doubling every two days? 

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12 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No-one can.  And no-one needs to, because that's not what's on their minds when they make the rules.  Restrictions are usually based on estimates of the degree of risk of spreading caused by various activities, in various places, and at various times.  They're not designed to eliminate the virus, but to dial back the degree to which people can pass it on.

 

When you see restrictions, you can usually figure out the thinking behind them.  Close pubs early because the longer people stay in them, the less inhibited they get, the more likely they are to get close to a carrier and pick up the virus.  Insist on table service because it reduces the extent to which punters will get close to other punters and the extent of direct transmission.  Some people would say that the problem with 100 indoors and 500 in a stadium is not that 500 is too small, but that 100 is too big.

 

Having said that, I don't know the science behind any individual restriction - but because I don't, I wouldn't go so far as to say that any particular restriction makes perfect sense, or indeed that it is nonsense.  Taken collectively, they're a package of measures designed to slow transmission of the virus, and seen in that way they make sense.

Good post but it will only tax the brains of the children on here. 

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One explanation doing the rounds about why we're not seeing the doubling rate in the figures is that people,  in much greater numbers than previously,  are doing LFTs and not following up positive results by seeking a PCR test.  Self isolating or possibly not even that and dealing with the course of the infection themselves.  It was forecast to happen.  Not everyone would be at will to do this of course.

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Malinga the Swinga
3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

One explanation doing the rounds about why we're not seeing the doubling rate in the figures is that people,  in much greater numbers than previously,  are doing LFTs and not following up positive results by seeking a PCR test.  Self isolating or possibly not even that and dealing with the course of the infection themselves.  It was forecast to happen.  Not everyone would be at will to do this of course.

That would surely be a good thing. Provides people can self medicate would infer virus isn't as CV potent as previously thought.

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Dennis Denuto
45 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Well erm.  Of course not…

 

I don’t necessarily want to beat the Scottish government but I was keen to correct a common misconception that gets trotted out very regularly.  

The other thing is restrictions aren’t really designed to reduce excess deaths, they are designed to reduce transmission. So did case numbers continue to go up at the same or faster rate, or did they go down? 
 

Excess deaths were a better figure at the beginning of the pandemic due to lack of testing capacity. Things have moved since then. 

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Malinga the Swinga
4 minutes ago, Barack said:

I don't really take any great interest in the minutiae of most figures these days. Just headline news, like all I've looked at briefly.

 

Deaths, are of interest. As is the tentative data appearing, that seems to confirm that Omicron seems to be ⅔'s less severe than Delta. Now, if true, the SA's will perhaps be giving it a :greggy:. But also a :what:in equal measure.

 

I deal with it all with an air of interested disinterest these days. See what they've got planned, follow the rules as best I can, and hope like the rest of the planet, that "normality" returns soon enough.

 

Ironic, if it turns out to be the virus, that defeats the virus. But it's nothing new in genetics & history, I suppose.

 

Tis all you can do.

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7 minutes ago, indianajones said:

Bet there is a lot of people who have had a lot worse going up their nose!

 

MPs could get their vaccine while they're powdering their noses in Parliament's toilets

 

 

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1 minute ago, kila said:

 

MPs could get their vaccine while they're powdering their noses in Parliament's toilets

 

 

 

That makes far too much sense for those clowns to agree with!

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7 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

That would surely be a good thing. Provides people can self medicate would infer virus isn't as CV potent as previously thought.

 

It doesn't say anything about the properties of the virus apart from possibly a greater rate of asymptomatic or mild symptomatic infection.  The proviso is that it is known that seemingly mild/moderate illnesses can escalate to hospitalisation after as much as a few weeks.  

 

It's no bad thing overall,  I think.  I still think it will prove beneficial for this to spread as freely as possible,  without the impact on the NHS and key services and supply.

Edited by Victorian
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27 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

Higher excess deaths are indeed a bad thing and should be the driver for investigation/action into the reasons for it.

 

I've just had a look at the weekly NRS figures published today.  They do give a breakdown by a few causes.

 

The following numbers are the excess deaths reported in Scotland during 2021 to date, compared to the 2015-2019 five year average.

 

Registered deaths: five year average (2015-2019)1    
Cancer   15,554
Dementia / Alzheimers   5,848
Circulatory (heart disease and stroke)   14,449
Respiratory   6,759
COVID-19   0
Other   12,683
All   55,294
     
Difference    
Cancer   357
Dementia / Alzheimers   -95
Circulatory (heart disease and stroke)   483
Respiratory   -1,676
COVID-19   4,701
Other   2,081
All   5,850


Cancer up,

Heart disease/stroke up,

Covid up (obviously)

"Other" up (really needs a more detailed breakdown to identify the cause(s) of this rise, e.g. drugs, suicides, accidents, murders or whatever)

The first two are a concern. Do they reflect the impact of delays to presentation, diagnosis or treatment resulting from Covid?

 

Dementia/Alzheimers down

Respiratory down 

Both of these could well have ended up in the Covid figures, e.g. those who were susceptible to dying from dementia,  influenza or pneumonia may well have succumbed to Covid instead.

👌good posting.

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18 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Alternatively, numbers are plucked from sky, at a whim, and are only there to point score. 

Depends on how much trust you have in those producing them.

 

Maybe we just inhabit different zones.  For good or ill I just happen to know a small number of the people who are doing the research and analysis for the Irish government.  They aren't plucking numbers from the sky, they aren't operating on a whim, and they don't have anyone to point score for or against.  Neither are they operating with perfect data, but they don't pretend they are.  They have no agenda, other than that they hate these restrictions and wish they were a thing of the past.

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Christmas is ****ed again in my household. After cancelling our trip to the in-laws in Germany last year, now have to cancel it this year. Was due to fly out tomorrow, woke up today feeling like I'd been ran over. Tested Positive. 

 

I tell you, mild cold like symptoms my arse. I feel utterly horrific. 

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2 hours ago, Brighton Jambo said:

What I don’t get is how we have had longer, harder restrictions than the rest of the UK, we have had masks all the way through and yet our death rate is higher than the rest of the UK.

 

And here we are on the eve of a huge derby match that thousands of fans would have enjoyed and there’s no fans allowed. Yet people on here are still defending her.  It’s mind boggling.  Some of you could walk in on Sturgeon in bed with your wife and blame yourself.  There was even a poster above trying to defend her inflation busting salary increase FFS 😂😂😂

 

Yip. The absolute nick of the cult and especially the boomer cult over the last few pages has been a joy to behold. :gok:

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Still some clarts going about . I was at the gym and changing in the changing room and a guy walked passed to the showers and just literally blasted a massive cough . He didn't cover his mouth . I heard him coughing his lungs out continuing going to the swimming pool.  I know i sound heartless but surely cover your mouth when coughing FFS .  Clarty. 

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The Real Maroonblood
3 minutes ago, Norm said:

Christmas is ****ed again in my household. After cancelling our trip to the in-laws in Germany last year, now have to cancel it this year. Was due to fly out tomorrow, woke up today feeling like I'd been ran over. Tested Positive. 

 

I tell you, mild cold like symptoms my arse. I feel utterly horrific. 

That's pretty shite.

Get well soon.

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1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Still some clarts going about . I was at the gym and changing in the changing room and a guy walked passed to the showers and just literally blasted a massive cough . He didn't cover his mouth . I heard him coughing his lungs out continuing going to the swimming pool.  I know i sound heartless but surely cover your mouth when coughing FFS .  Clarty. 

 

Maybe he performed his own risk assessment or has a hidden chronic coughing condition and has a medical exemption from attempts to suppress a coughing fit.  It's diabolical of you to stigmatise him.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Norm said:

Christmas is ****ed again in my household. After cancelling our trip to the in-laws in Germany last year, now have to cancel it this year. Was due to fly out tomorrow, woke up today feeling like I'd been ran over. Tested Positive. 

 

I tell you, mild cold like symptoms my arse. I feel utterly horrific. 

Drama queen 👆

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2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Maybe he performed his own risk assessment or has a hidden chronic coughing condition and has a medical exemption from attempts to suppress a coughing fit.  It's diabolical of you to stigmatise him.  

 

 

I didn't stigmise him. I just felt it was slightly rude. He may have underlying health conditions but ive seen him lift a power of weights so surely he could put his hand to his mouth. I didn't say anything anyway as he may have an invisible disability and he's a big bruiser of a guy. A man mountain. 

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  • davemclaren changed the title to Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

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