Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

1 minute ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

The pubs as well.

🍺

Nah, the obsession with the pubs being open is properly unhealthy. Especially in the Daily Mail

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Nah, the obsession with the pubs being open is properly unhealthy. Especially in the Daily Mail

Booooo!

[Victorian]

11 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Amazing isn’t it. People don’t see Ebola on their front doorstep so take the view that it’s not serious.

 

FWIW, I do think some of the restrictions have gone well over the top, like the closure of schools for so long.

 

That particular woman is clearly an arrogant,  gaslighting individual.  The kind of person you never want to have to know or work beside.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

10 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Booooo!

I know, I know

[Toxteth O'Grady]

My wife’s pals 2 kids were told to self isolate and get a test after some classmates had it. They both tested positive on Friday. My wife’s pal woke up this morning feeling ill and has booked a test. Despite kids from 9 classes and 3 teachers testing positive the head teacher claims it isn’t spreading in the school and blames the parents for mixing. The school is in Tullibody. 

[Nucky Thompson]

8000 fans allowed to attend the Carabao cup final 

[milky_26]

2 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

8000 fans allowed to attend the Carabao cup final 

but they must all be local. no fans from outside the area

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

My wife’s pals 2 kids were told to self isolate and get a test after some classmates had it. They both tested positive on Friday. My wife’s pal woke up this morning feeling ill and has booked a test. Despite kids from 9 classes and 3 teachers testing positive the head teacher claims it isn’t spreading in the school and blames the parents for mixing. The school is in Tullibody. 

 

The head teacher should be made to account to their superiors for their management of any concerns then.  If what's been said is right then fine,  if not then the head should be forced to revisit those comments.  That should be escalated.

[Toxteth O'Grady]

8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

The head teacher should be made to account to their superiors for their management of any concerns then.  If what's been said is right then fine,  if not then the head should be forced to revisit those comments.  That should be escalated.

Yes I think some of the parents will make a complaint.

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 4 April 2021

Summary

• 343 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-54; down from 422 a week ago]
• 14,164 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 2.7% of these were positive [-7,396; +0.6%]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [=]
• 2,553,837 people have received the first dose of the covid vaccination and 451,057 have received their second dose [+17,948; +16,116]

[redjambo]

			Today	Yesterday			2 Apr	1 Apr	31 Mar	30 Mar	29 Mar	...	1 Mar
Scotland (7-day per-100,000 cases)			52	54	-2		57	59	65	67	69	...	78
7-day averages
Tests			20509	21004	-495		21570	21722	22578	22228	21906	...	18830
Positivity rate %			2.3	2.3	0.0		2.3	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.7	...	3.8
Deaths			4	4	0		5	5	6	5	5	...	26
All Vaccinations			43838	45329	-1491		46806	49063	45566	46357	46941		29659
1st Dose			24018	25297	-1279		27559	29659	30494	31675	32489		23727
2nd Dose			19820	20032	-212		19247	19404	15072	14682	14452		5932

[The Real Maroonblood]

Just now, redjambo said:

			Today	Yesterday			2 Apr	1 Apr	31 Mar	30 Mar	29 Mar	...	1 Mar
Scotland (7-day per-100,000 cases)			52	54	-2		57	59	65	67	69	...	78
7-day averages
Tests			20509	21004	-495		21570	21722	22578	22228	21906	...	18830
Positivity rate %			2.3	2.3	0.0		2.3	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.7	...	3.8
Deaths			4	4	0		5	5	6	5	5	...	26
All Vaccinations			43838	45329	-1491		46806	49063	45566	46357	46941		29659
1st Dose			24018	25297	-1279		27559	29659	30494	31675	32489		23727
2nd Dose			19820	20032	-212		19247	19404	15072	14682	14452		5932

👍

[Fxxx the SPFL]

13 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Scottish numbers: 4 April 2021

Summary

• 343 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-54; down from 422 a week ago]
• 14,164 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 2.7% of these were positive [-7,396; +0.6%]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [=]
• 2,553,837 people have received the first dose of the covid vaccination and 451,057 have received their second dose [+17,948; +16,116]

cheers Red are we not seeing numbers in hospital now

[scott herbertson]

3 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

cheers Red are we not seeing numbers in hospital now

 

 

From the Scottish Government website

 

"Over the Easter weekend (2-5 April), daily updates will be published to provide headline statistics on new cases, test positivity rate, deaths and vaccinations. There will be no updates to the remaining statistics. These will be updated on Tuesday 6 April – we will provide the latest detailed daily data for that day and the previous 4 days."

[Footballfirst]

3 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

cheers Red are we not seeing numbers in hospital now

Not before Tuesday. All statisticians (apart from @redjambo) are on holiday.

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

cheers Red are we not seeing numbers in hospital now

 

Those figures aren't being published by the SG over the Easter break, FtS. They should be back on Tuesday, although the lack of data over the break will mean that the 7-day figures won't be available for a wee while after that.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

Those figures aren't being published by the SG over the Easter break, FtS. They should be back on Tuesday, although the lack of data over the break will mean that the 7-day figures won't be available for a wee while after that.

thanks Red must have missed that.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

4 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

From the Scottish Government website

 

"Over the Easter weekend (2-5 April), daily updates will be published to provide headline statistics on new cases, test positivity rate, deaths and vaccinations. There will be no updates to the remaining statistics. These will be updated on Tuesday 6 April – we will provide the latest detailed daily data for that day and the previous 4 days."

cheers Scott and @footballfirst

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Not before Tuesday. All statisticians (apart from @redjambo) are on holiday.

 

 

John at Travelling Tabby is probably tearing his hair out trying to make his stats look reasonable given the data holes being thrown at him.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Apparently the vaccine is easing symptoms of long COVID sufferers. 

 

That's great (and perhaps reasonably unexpected) news. Where did you hear that?

[scott herbertson]

6 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Apparently the vaccine is easing symptoms of long COVID sufferers. 

 

 

That's excellent - must be a big relief for people/ families affected by it

[Victorian]

Seems to be no more than tentative theories on it.  One that theorises that long covid sufferers have residual virus in their bodies in some form or other that severely compromises the immune system from fighting off symptoms and that the vaccine is resetting their immune responses.   

[Footballfirst]

UK 2,297 cases 10 deaths.  Lowest case numbers since 5th September, albeit it's a holiday weekend.

 

Scotland has, for the last four weeks, had more than its population share of cases, after performing much better than the UK average for much of the pandemic.  I'm not sure why that should be the case. It's not as if the restrictions are significantly different at this stage.  School related cases do look to be a driver, but I don't know why that should be so.

[XB52]

24 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

UK 2,297 cases 10 deaths.  Lowest case numbers since 5th September, albeit it's a holiday weekend.

 

Scotland has, for the last four weeks, had more than its population share of cases, after performing much better than the UK average for much of the pandemic.  I'm not sure why that should be the case. It's not as if the restrictions are significantly different at this stage.  School related cases do look to be a driver, but I don't know why that should be so.

True although for some reason England has stopped issuing number of tests so we have no idea of the positivity rate

[Nucky Thompson]

1,266,685 daily tests conducted in the UK at the last count, which was Wednesday

[XB52]

11 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

1,266,685 daily tests conducted in the UK at the last count, which was Wednesday

They never appear on the travelling tabby site and the official coronavirus site shows the same number of total tests for the last 3 days. Do England just release them weekly? 

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

1,266,685 daily tests conducted in the UK at the last count, which was Wednesday

 

That seems enormous, Nucky, especially when compared against the number in Scotland. Does it include lateral flow tests too? I also see that Travelling Tabby is tabulating the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish test stats but not the English - do you know what that's about?

 

Ah, no reason to answer that. I've just checked - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing - and that figure does include lateral flow tests, which is probably why Travelling Tabby has excluded the English figures as the other nations all publish PCR-based test stats and the relevant English stats can't be inferred using the same basis.

 

Still impressive though.

[Nucky Thompson]

Twice weekly rapid Covid tests are to be offered to everyone in England.

Seems like a good idea

 

[steve123]

57 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Twice weekly rapid Covid tests are to be offered to everyone in England.

Seems like a good idea

 

Yea I wonder how quickly Scotland will follow....

[Taffin]

2 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Twice weekly rapid Covid tests are to be offered to everyone in England.

Seems like a good idea

 

 

Wow, that's some expense being incurred there. Well, providing people use them.

 

I've had two lateral flow tests and the result doesn't exactly fill you with confidence saying something along the lines of "it's unlikely you are infectious". I knew it was unlikely I was infectious without the test given the odds of having it at a given point in time. Whilst it wasn't as unpleasant as I expected, it wasn't a great experience. Will I be doing them voluntarily twice a week? No.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

19 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Wow, that's some expense being incurred there. Well, providing people use them PROPERLY. 

 

I've had two lateral flow tests and the result doesn't exactly fill you with confidence saying something along the lines of "it's unlikely you are infectious". I knew it was unlikely I was infectious without the test given the odds of having it at a given point in time. Whilst it wasn't as unpleasant as I expected, it wasn't a great experience. Will I be doing them voluntarily twice a week? No.

The wife gets a box sent every month due to her job there is always extra so i use one a week it's making sure you get it right to the back of the throat and as high up into the nasal cavity not pleasant but always negative thank goodness. 

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, **** the SPFL said:

The wife gets a box sent every month due to her job there is always extra so i use one a week it's making sure you get it right to the back of the throat and as high up into the nasal cavity not pleasant but always negative thank goodness. 

 

Yeh, that too. When I did mine there was a medic observing me 1 to 1 to ensure I was doing it properly. Left to my own devices I'd likely not have gone fully to the edge of my brain with the swab.

[scott herbertson]

5 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Yeh, that too. When I did mine there was a medic observing me 1 to 1 to ensure I was doing it properly. Left to my own devices I'd likely not have gone fully to the edge of my brain with the swab.

 

 

Yeah - I have reflux reaction when I try to do it to myself - nearly throw up as it approaches the back. Had to sit with a plastic bag in front of me in the car when the medic did it on a drive through test. Highly unlikely I'll be self testing regularly.

 

My worry about this is it seems a huge financial outlay for something that I think will only be used by the people who are already observing the rules and unlikely to catch the virus. Would be better in my view to concentrate on workers in functions where contact may be necessary or likely (taxi drivers, public transport, refuse collectors, shop assistants teachers, factory workers, care workers etc and test them very frequently plus ensure they always have good ppe. And invest the rest of the money on the vaccination programme across the world, otherwise we will just be in a hamster cycle

[DETTY29]

I do lateral flow 2 times a week.

 

You only need to do an inch and a half inside each nostril with c10 twists each.

 

It don't find it too bad at all.

 

 

 

 

[DETTY29]

Intriguing what the RAG system for overseas travel will look like.

 

For me this is like the lifting of restrictions, there is no going back.  Once a country is green, that is it.  Green.  Amber can go green, but should never go red.

 

You can't have folk booking holidays again then cancelling,  rescheduling so the metrics need to be very tight, strict.

Edited April 5, 2021 by DETTY29

[Footballfirst]

In the absence of @redjambo here are today's headline numbers.  I'll leave it to others to mark the changes.

 

Scottish numbers: 5 April 2021

Summary

• 248 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 11,373 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 2.5% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 2,565,280 people have received the first dose of the covid vaccination and 456,374 have received their second dose

Edited April 5, 2021 by Footballfirst

[Victorian]

12 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Intriguing what the RAG system for overseas travel will look like.

 

For me this is like the lifting of restrictions, there is no going back.  Once a country is green, that is it.  Green.  Amber can go green, but should never go red.

 

You can't have folk booking holidays again then cancelling,  rescheduling so the metrics need to be very tight, strict.

 

Ideally yes but in practice there will need to be reversals if required.  The government can try to enable as much international travel as possible for people but it can't be limited by an inability to move countries back the way.  A country's epidemic can worsen or a concerning variant can appear.  People have had lots of time to get used to the idea that their personal travel arrangements come with a risk.  You want to travel then recognise the risk of disruption.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Victorian

[Footballfirst]

8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

• 2,565,280 people have received the first dose of the covid vaccination and 456,374 have received their second dose [+29,391; +21,433]

I think you have combined the last two days dosage numbers to show the increase.  I make the changes since yesterday 11,443 and 5317.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

👍 Second doses are going to have to ramp up big style to catch i.e. if we vaccinated 40000 in one day a few weeks ago then we need to have the same 40000 second doses in one day as well.

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Footballfirst said:

I think you have combined the last two days dosage numbers to show the increase.  I make the changes since yesterday 11,443 and 5317.

 

Yes, something's going wrong with my head today. I'm all over the place to be honest. I realised that and edited those figures out of there so that I could calmly work out what I've done wrong and you were both in there like a shot.

 

Back to square one...

[redjambo]

Hopefully the correct stats now. Please check, FF. Apologies - due to my waking up very late (I obviously needed the huge sleep for some reason), I had to do things differently than usual (usually I compare two opened web pages to calculate the differences but need to open the first one before 2pm) and that combined with me still being very sleepy-headed led to a Mr Bean-like episode here at stat monkey central.

 

Scottish numbers: 5 April 2021

Summary

• 248 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-95; down from 352 a week ago]
• 11,373 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 2.5% of these were positive [-2,791; -0.2%]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [=]
• 2,565,280 people have received the first dose of the covid vaccination and 456,374 have received their second dose [+11,443; +5,317]

[Footballfirst]

7 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

👍 Second doses are going to have to ramp up big style to catch i.e. if we vaccinated 40000 in one day a few weeks ago then we need to have the same 40000 second doses in one day as well.

We have given 2nd doses to 456,374 according to today's figures.

 

First doses reached that figure on 27th January, i.e. 68 days, or 9 weeks and 5 days ago, so well within the 12 weeks target.

 

I'd expect that we will get closer to the 12 week target over the rest of the month as supplies diminish, but for the moment Scotland is doing OK.

 

 

[Footballfirst]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Hopefully the correct stats now. Please check, FF. Apologies - due to my waking up very late (I obviously needed the huge sleep for some reason), I had to do things differently than usual (usually I compare two opened web pages to calculate the differences but need to open the first one before 2pm) and that combined with me still being very sleepy-headed led to a Mr Bean-like episode here at stat monkey central.

The amended figures look fine to me.  I do track the cases, deaths and vax numbers but not the testing figures which is why I didn't want to update the changes.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

4 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

We have given 2nd doses to 456,374 according to today's figures.

 

First doses reached that figure on 27th January, i.e. 68 days, or 9 weeks and 5 days ago, so well within the 12 weeks target.

 

I'd expect that we will get closer to the 12 week target over the rest of the month as supplies diminish, but for the moment Scotland is doing OK.

 

 

cheers 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Footballfirst said:

The amended figures look fine to me.  I do track the cases, deaths and vax numbers but not the testing figures which is why I didn't want to update the changes.

 

Great. Thanks for checking my figures and pointing out the problem. I had to pull up yesterday's post of mine on here to compare today's figures against because I don't actually store the cumulative test figures, and obviously picked my post from the day before yesterday by mistake. The fact that the figures seemed reasonable meant that the data itself didn't warn me I had made the error. The real vaccination figures are, naturally, pretty lousy, but I guess we just have to put that down to it being Easter Sunday yesterday.

[redjambo]

			Today	Yesterday			3 Apr	2 Apr	1 Apr	31 Mar	30 Mar	...	1 Mar
Scotland (7-day per-100,000 cases)			50	52	-2		54	57	59	65	67	...	78
7-day averages
Tests			20355	20509	-154		21004	21570	21722	22578	22228	...	18830
Positivity rate %			2.2	2.3	-0.1		2.3	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.6	...	3.8
Deaths			4	4	0		4	5	5	6	5	...	26
All Vaccinations			40795	43838	-3043		45329	46806	49063	45566	46357		29659
1st Dose			22208	24018	-1810		25297	27559	29659	30494	31675		23727
2nd Dose			18587	19820	-1233		20032	19247	19404	15072	14682		5932

[redjambo]

Right, I need a coffee, and fast!

[The Real Maroonblood]

13 minutes ago, redjambo said:

			Today	Yesterday			3 Apr	2 Apr	1 Apr	31 Mar	30 Mar	...	1 Mar
Scotland (7-day per-100,000 cases)			50	52	-2		54	57	59	65	67	...	78
7-day averages
Tests			20355	20509	-154		21004	21570	21722	22578	22228	...	18830
Positivity rate %			2.2	2.3	-0.1		2.3	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.6	...	3.8
Deaths			4	4	0		4	5	5	6	5	...	26
All Vaccinations			40795	43838	-3043		45329	46806	49063	45566	46357		29659
1st Dose			22208	24018	-1810		25297	27559	29659	30494	31675		23727
2nd Dose			18587	19820	-1233		20032	19247	19404	15072	14682		5932

👍

[The Real Maroonblood]

17 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Right, I need a coffee, and fast!

🍺 I'm having one of them.😜

[connlach]

24 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Right, I need a coffee, and fast!

Thanks for the hard work