Cade Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Nobody even knows if herd immunity even works with covid-19. The reports of at least 116 re-infected people in South Korea is very concerning. If you can get it again after having had it, then herd immunity won't work. If a vaccine is impossible (malaria and aids the most infamous non-vaccinated conditions), then we really are in trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flogel41 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Francis Albert said: The only numbers I have seen so far relate to January and February, before Coronavirus took off, are on total deaths. Compared to last year they showed 3000 fewer deaths in January and 3000 more in February (or the other way round) meaning that Coronavirus deaths are still statistically masked by "normal" variability in rates of death. I also think " mentioned on the death certificate" may be misleading. If someone in the late stages of terminal lung cancer dies, has he died of Coronavirus or of lung cancer? Despite the certainty some people express about the course of the pandemic and the way out of it there is still a hell of a lot we won't know for a very long time, if ever. I think the latest stats published are around mid to late March but there is a lag with date of registration of death. I think you have 1 or 2 weeks to register a death in normal circumstances. Certainly the stats will be at the early part of the upward trend of covid in the UK and i think include less than 1000 covid deaths. So as you say they tell us very little so far. You can have more than one condition mentioned in a death certificate so in the example you state both long cancer and covid would be recorded. This makes the covid deaths alone a stat of dubious significance but long term comparing the overall death rates and individual conditions will probably be the closest we get to an overall picture. I agree with your last paragraph 100%. We are bombarded with opinions formed from incomplete statistics and these opinions are then presented to us as facts. Ultimately there will be no good answer to this, it will be the least bad answer, and that will be unpalatable but I think it is sadly true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobmisterdobster Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Spellczech said: Cummings denies he ever said that TBF Moral of the story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bongo 1874 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cade said: Nobody even knows if herd immunity even works with covid-19. The reports of at least 116 re-infected people in South Korea is very concerning. If you can get it again after having had it, then herd immunity won't work. If a vaccine is impossible (malaria and aids the most infamous non-vaccinated conditions), then we really are in trouble. This guy gets it 👍. Though I have to say, when you have time and if you watch trumps press conference's, have a look at there social distancing. Drop me a pm if u want bud 😉. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, Cade said: Nobody even knows if herd immunity even works with covid-19. The reports of at least 116 re-infected people in South Korea is very concerning. If you can get it again after having had it, then herd immunity won't work. If a vaccine is impossible (malaria and aids the most infamous non-vaccinated conditions), then we really are in trouble. We have been unable to create a vaccine for any other coronavirus so far, could be due to lack of need or we are just not able to do it. Worst case scenario humans don't get immunity and we are unable to make a vaccine, this is an entirely realistic outcome and hopefully our leaders have plans in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Lord BJ said: I struggle to see how herd immunity doesn’t happen automatically. This thing is loose all over the world, it’s not going away. Even now a section of the population is building up a immunity to it. Lockdowns don’t make this go away, its merely a management strategy. We can’t remain in lockdown too long as the damage that will cause will become worse than that of the actual virus. We will need to return to some form of ‘normality’ and herd immunity will be a byproduct of that. These are the cold, hard facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawnrazor Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Lord BJ said: I struggle to see how herd immunity doesn’t happen automatically. This thing is loose all over the world, it’s not going away. Even now a section of the population is building up a immunity to it. Lockdowns don’t make this go away, its merely a management strategy. We can’t remain in lockdown too long as the damage that will cause will become worse than that of the actual virus. We will need to return to some form of ‘normality’ and herd immunity will be a byproduct of that. Exactly, heard immunity is and always going to be the inevitable outcome, lockdown is there to stop the health service being overwhelmed but we're all going ti have to be exposed to it at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas-voss Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 New cases starting to appear in China with restrictions now along the Russian border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas-voss Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said: Exactly, heard immunity is and always going to be the inevitable outcome, lockdown is there to stop the health service being overwhelmed but we're all going ti have to be exposed to it at some point. Has to be some form of social distancing or we will just get wave after wave.I suppose Spain will tell us a lot as they are about to ease restrictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seymour M Hersh Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, dobmisterdobster said: Moral of the story. I remember when honest Abe originally posted that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seymour M Hersh Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, vegas-voss said: New cases starting to appear in China with restrictions now along the Russian border. Russia's fault then? Edited April 13, 2020 by Seymour M Hersh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manaliveits105 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Get with the programme its either the Tories or Trumps fault Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, milky_26 said: it helps that he has his lapdogs at fox news agreeing with everything he says and does It's actually the other way around. Trump watches Fox and friends, they make a ludicrous suggestion, minutes later he's tweeting it then it becomes policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said: Exactly, heard immunity is and always going to be the inevitable outcome, lockdown is there to stop the health service being overwhelmed but we're all going ti have to be exposed to it at some point. This is the thing isn't it, we're not going to smallpox this thing out of existence. It's not going away. Lockdown will end then it will simply begin again. The only other thing I can think of is waiting for a vaccine and even that wont save everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Internet Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said: Get with the programme its either the Tories or Trumps fault So they've handled this really well have they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Vaccines and herd immunity may not even work. I've gone through this twice today already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seymour M Hersh Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 46 minutes ago, Shanks said: We have been unable to create a vaccine for any other coronavirus so far, could be due to lack of need or we are just not able to do it. Worst case scenario humans don't get immunity and we are unable to make a vaccine, this is an entirely realistic outcome and hopefully our leaders have plans in place. How quickly do you think vaccines can be created? Just out of thin air? This Wuhan virus has only been on the go (outside of the BS4 Lab anyway) since October/November time. The Chinese destroyed all sorts of date and research to deny any issue. Western researchers are working from scratch to come up with a vaccine and indeed some at Cambridge (I think) feel they may have something for September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mighty Thor Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I heard Simon Calder, travel consultant on 5live, who thinks that there will be internal air travel back up and running in the UK by mid may with limited European air travel by June and holidays getting back to normal by July. He must see different numbers from the ones I've been seeing every day. Opinions eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said: How quickly do you think vaccines can be created? Just out of thin air? This Wuhan virus has only been on the go (outside of the BS4 Lab anyway) since October/November time. The Chinese destroyed all sorts of date and research to deny any issue. Western researchers are working from scratch to come up with a vaccine and indeed some at Cambridge (I think) feel they may have something for September. We haven't been able to create a vacinne for any of the other coronavirus that are around. I realise we haven't had very long to create one for covid-19 but historically we haven't done well in this field (why we haven't done it is up for debate) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Aw well... First time since lockdown I've lost my cool with someone. Some guy walked straight in front of the counter I was being served at, so he could pick his scratch cards. I asked him wft! and told him to move back, He looked at me with the whit? face. He's lucky touching people is not advisable. Prick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators JKBMod 12 Posted April 13, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 13, 2020 Can we keep this on topic please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas-voss Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said: Russia's fault then? Doesn't say it is just thats the region that has got restrictions put in place. Edited April 13, 2020 by vegas-voss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas-voss Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Cade said: Vaccines and herd immunity may not even work. I've gone through this twice today already. I'm not expert but does herd immunity not evolve over a number of years.I mean **** me we haven't even got rid of the common cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas-voss Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said: I heard Simon Calder, travel consultant on 5live, who thinks that there will be internal air travel back up and running in the UK by mid may with limited European air travel by June and holidays getting back to normal by July. He must see different numbers from the ones I've been seeing every day. Opinions eh? Something wrong with folks heads if they go on holiday in July.Remember these experts told them it was cool to go in March so to listen to that advice again would be mad Edited April 13, 2020 by vegas-voss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Thaw said: The thing about this is that people keep citing someone else's paraphrase as if it were a direct quote, making it easier for Cummings to deny. It would be interesting to know what he actually said. Cummings is the government's chief strategist and the government's strategy was/is to pursue herd immunity. If he didn't use those exact words, he'll have used something very similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mighty Thor Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 There's an article on Twitter by BBC guy Faisal Islam which was originally about the lack of reporting by PHE on care home cases and deaths. There are caveats attached to the report but these cannot be right? https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-care-homes-early-international-evidence/amp/?__twitter_impression=true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bindy Badgy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, vegas-voss said: I'm not expert but does herd immunity not evolve over a number of years.I mean **** me we haven't even got rid of the common cold. We'll never get rid of the common cold as it mutates too quickly. It is possible to get rid of diseases that mutate more slowly, such as measles and smallpox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, vegas-voss said: I'm not expert but does herd immunity not evolve over a number of years.I mean **** me we haven't even got rid of the common cold. I'm gradually coming to the conclusion that we may just have to live/die with this thing just as we do with cold/flu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, Cade said: Vaccines and herd immunity may not even work. I've gone through this twice today already. Might as well top yourself now then eh. Save yourself any unnecessary ****ing about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaw Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, I P Knightley said: Cummings is the government's chief strategist and the government's strategy was/is to pursue herd immunity. If he didn't use those exact words, he'll have used something very similar. The initial strategy (at least) increasingly feels like a horrendous mistake, I agree. I still think the soundbite could have been more another person's inference, or a summary of a longer speech. If it was indeed close to a verbatim quote, that gives it quite a different flavour. For the avoidance of doubt, I'm absolutely not a fan of either Cummings or Johnson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, ri Alban said: Aw well... First time since lockdown I've lost my cool with someone. Some guy walked straight in front of the counter I was being served at, so he could pick his scratch cards. I asked him wft! and told him to move back, He looked at me with the whit? face. He's lucky touching people is not advisable. Prick! Weighing up the probabilities of viral transfer, I would imagine that a kick in the gonads accompanied by a quick step to the side (to avoid breathing in any exhalation as the recipient folds up) may do the trick. 👍 Not of course that I would suggest violence as the means to the resolution of any dispute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, redjambo said: Weighing up the probabilities of viral transfer, I would imagine that a kick in the gonads accompanied by a quick step to the side (to avoid breathing in any exhalation as the recipient folds up) may do the trick. 👍 Not of course that I would suggest violence as the means to the resolution of any dispute. Not worth it bud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, JFK-1 said: I'm gradually coming to the conclusion that we may just have to live/die with this thing just as we do with cold/flu. Yup. I'd be willing to wager that a fair chunk of us have already had it and put it down to the usual seasonal ailments. As with most things, teatments for the worst affected will undoubtably improve as time goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, JFK-1 said: I'm gradually coming to the conclusion that we may just have to live/die with this thing just as we do with cold/flu. That is how it will pass. We will get on its back until we have it down to manageable levels. We'll most likely never eliminate it altogether. Such is life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, ri Alban said: Not worth it bud. I know, but one can always day-dream. Hope you're not in too much pain today, ri. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, ri Alban said: Not worth it bud. I'm working on developing a tazer app for android. You can be my beta tester. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bongo 1874 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Is there any proof this virsus originated in wuhan?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corkie64 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Thank God for the Pakistani embassy at the end of my street, ice, Pepsi and litre bottles of Bacardi, 👏👏🏾👏👏🏾👏👏🏾👏👏🏾👏👏🏾 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Bongo 1874 said: Is there any proof this virsus originated in wuhan?. Is that you Chris Tarrant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Internet Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Bongo 1874 said: Is there any proof this virsus originated in wuhan?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, redjambo said: I know, but one can always day-dream. Hope you're not in too much pain today, ri. Thanks bud. Leg is killing me, but start back on the taxi tomorrow. 4 years since I done it. So I suppose I'm gonna have to put up with these people. Edited April 13, 2020 by ri Alban Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) Eamonn Holmes jumping on the "It's 5G" conspiracy theory bandwagon Relying to an expert who just slapped down the pish, he said: "I totally agree with everything you are saying but what I don’t accept is mainstream media immediately slapping that down as not true when they don’t know it’s not true. No-one should attack or damage or do anything like that but it’s very easy to say it is not true because it suits the state narrative. That’s all I would say, as someone with an inquiring mind.” Radio waves cannot carry biological matter ya tubby twat. Edited April 13, 2020 by Cade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bongo 1874 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jeff said: Is that you Chris Tarrant? 3 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said: What we know about it mate is very little? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bongo 1874 said: Is there any proof this virsus originated in wuhan?. How you feeling man? Holding up okay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said: I'm working on developing a tazer app for android. You can be my beta tester. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ri Alban said: Thanks bud. Leg is killing me, but start back on the taxi tomorrow. 4 years since I done it. So I suppose I'm gonna have to put up with these people. All the best for tomorrow, ri. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, redjambo said: All the best for tomorrow, ri. I'm taking a stale black pudding with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ri Alban said: I'm taking a stale black pudding with me. I won't ask why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bongo 1874 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, GinRummy said: How you feeling man? Holding up okay? Yeah a lot better now mate, sadly i think we are in this for the long haul. We seem to be learning more about this virsus everyday, quite scary it has three strains. Stay safe 👍. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpie Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 As an eighty five year old who. is in the high risk categories I can easily say that this is the worst thing I have seen in my life. I lived through a war of course as a child one didn't totally understand it, but there was a hope that however it was it would end. I forget the chronology but we also went through a flu epidemic, polio, TB to some extent, and smallpox, my main memory was of the vaccine that we received an injection for. You knew when someone had just been injected because they wore a red ribbon on their treated arm, because to be bumped on that arm was extremely painful. Aids, Hiv have all passed through. This is different for me, I am not afraid of the worst outcome of death , too old to worry, I am afraid of the life of self isolation becoming the norm, low shelves at stores, line ups and limits to people entering are all more like an occupied country in wartime. In local paper today City of Vancouver mayor talking about the City facing bankruptcy, the news from china about new cases confirms statements I have heard that until there is a vaccine, and possibly even after sudden surprise outbreaks could occur, everything tells me not to be afraid, and in a way I am not, but I am apprehensive about the future for us all and that does concern me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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