Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[skinnybob72]

The daily ‘number of deaths’ updates are a bit meaningless as they lack any kind of context - other than being compared to other countries. They seem like big numbers on their own but I’ve wondered how they compare to the expected number of deaths from ALL illnesses in an average year. 
 

ONS death statistics - covering England & Wales - are currently up to 27th March, with the next weekly update due tomorrow. 
 

Deaths of CV19 were only just beginning to increase at that point with around 600 being the reported number. The overall figures for 2020 do not stand out compared to any of the years 2015 to 2019, so if the virus was around since January, albeit it probably wasn’t being looked for as a cause of death, it doesn’t appear to have affected the overall numbers. 
 

The next few weeks updates will show a true picture of how many ‘extra’ deaths there have been as a result of the virus, as we know that over 11k deaths are being attributed to CV19. 
 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by skinnybob72

[jumpship]

[frankblack]

7 minutes ago, skinnybob72 said:

The daily ‘number of deaths’ updates are a bit meaningless as they lack any kind of context - other than being compared to other countries. They seem like big numbers on their own but I’ve wondered how they compare to the expected number of deaths from ALL illnesses in an average year. 
 

ONS death statistics - covering England & Wales - are currently up to 27th March, with the next weekly update due tomorrow. 
 

Deaths of CV19 were only just beginning to increase at that point with around 600 being the reported number. The overall figures for 2020 do not stand out compared to any of the years 2015 to 2019, so if the virus was around since January, albeit it probably wasn’t being looked for as a cause of death, it doesn’t appear to have affected the overall numbers. 
 

The next few weeks updates will show a true picture of how many ‘extra’ deaths there have been as a result of the virus, as we know that over 11k deaths are being attributed to CV19. 
 

 

 

It would also be worth breaking down the figures per region to get a view if there are local factors such as London's Tube which are not present in cities with poorer public transport.

[Jeff]

5 hours ago, Bongo 1874 said:

Yeah a lot better now mate, sadly i think we are in this for the long haul. 

 

We seem to be learning more about this virsus everyday, quite scary it has three strains. 

 

Stay safe 👍. 

 

Wasn't one of the strains counted the original strain in the bat that hadn't mutated? 

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

41 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

Ah is that what they do in Australia?

I think they send them to Papua New Guinea.

[frankblack]

4 minutes ago, jumpship said:

There should be a name and shame of these companies if this is true.  Identify what other products they sell and boycott them.

[Ehllhayapeh]

9 minutes ago, jumpship said:

They were going to give Scotland to the Nazis so no surprise they deny supplies.

 

Just wait until food shortages kick in and theres England only food. They are capable of it.

[jumpship]

4 minutes ago, frankblack said:

There should be a name and shame of these companies if this is true.  Identify what other products they sell and boycott them.

What the first minister should be doing now is find the Scottish companies that make PPE and chuck sh1t loads of money at them... 

[jumpship]

4 minutes ago, Ehllhayapeh said:

They were going to give Scotland to the Nazis so no surprise they deny supplies.

 

Just wait until food shortages kick in and theres England only food. They are capable of it.

There will still be Yoons trying to tell us that this is OK.. 

[Ehllhayapeh]

Just now, jumpship said:

There will still be Yoons trying to tell us that this is OK.. 

Sadly, true.

 

 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

11 minutes ago, Joey J J Jr Shabadoo said:

I think they send them to Papua New Guinea.

Hilarious........... not 

[Thunderstruck]

2 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

Where did you find out about the rise in pneumonia cases in the UK in January ?

 

From the PHE weekly Flu update. It’s the English stats but a large sample.

 

This is from Week 10 (5 March) and gives a better idea of the significant change in Infections 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870503/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_10_2020.pdf

 

It is clear, albeit with the benefit of hindsight, that something unusual was starting to happen with the first significant uptick in Week 3, 2020. That was early in the outbreak when WHO still hadn’t admitted to its seriousness and I would doubt if Doctors in this country were looking for anything other than seasonal flu related deaths. 

 

This reports refer to “Respiratory Infections” although I did find pneumonia deaths listed elsewhere and there was a link to the rate of infection. The age cross-section was 65+. I’m sure it was ONS data but I don’t recall exactly where on that site. 

 

 

 

 

[Spellczech]

43 minutes ago, jumpship said:

What the first minister should be doing now is find the Scottish companies that make PPE and chuck sh1t loads of money at them... 

Are British Polythene Industries still in Greenock or is it annother company sold off abroad? - I did an audit there 20+ years ago

[Sirudi]

3 hours ago, Cade said:

I wonder why the UK daily presser only ever compares UK performance against Italy and Spain, two of the worst hit nations

They never seem to compare us to, say, Germany or France  

 

 

3 hours ago, Spellczech said:

Wow they couldn't get out of that room quick enough after deflecting on that last journo's questions...

I think that the decision was taken by the government very early on that our numbers would follow that of Italy, as they had the worst numbers at the time.

The line has always been “our numbers  appear to be following those of Italy”.  Therefore, so as long as we are not above Italy, the government must be doing a good job.
My question has always been, how could we possibly be following them so closely ?  

 

I don’t think any of the scientific advisors have looked comfortable with the statements they have been making, and have been making some very strange comments at the last few briefings.

Today they said that the daily UK death rates are still increasing and have not peaked.  It may not be the peak, but it is a strange thing to say when the last four reported numbers have been reducing from 982 to 717. 
It was also stated that the UK only report the hospital death rates, and don’t include those in care homes and the community, as that is what other countries report so it makes it easier to compare. This is not true.
It was also stated that when the peak is reached there will be a significant period of a plateau before the numbers reduce. This has not been seen anywhere else (unless you believe what Iran are reporting), so how do they know this.  Strange statement to make.

 

It suggests that they know the numbers they are reporting are not a true reflection of the actual situation. It remains to be seen how they will introduce the numbers from care homes and the community into the stats.

All responses appear to be from a political rather than scientific viewpoint. 
Everything they say appears to lack conviction.
As you say, they couldn’t get out the room quick enough.

 

 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

3 minutes ago, Sirudi said:

 

 

It suggests that they know the numbers they are reporting are not a true reflection of the actual situation. It remains to be seen how they will introduce the numbers from care homes and the community into the stats.

All responses appear to be from a political rather than scientific viewpoint. 
Everything they say appears to lack conviction.
As you say, they couldn’t get out the room quick enough.

 

 

 

Hence the reason the daily presser has become the daily sermon. 

Controlled messages, new narratives and fudged numbers all given low level credibility by softball questions from the downing street press pool. 

Anyone throws in a proper question and its bluster and quickly move on. 

I don't think they've any intention of incorporating the community death numbers. Whitty said as much today "the ONS numbers are available, they always have been". Sound mate. Add them in and let's get a proper look at where we are at instead of TFL use yesterday.

 

[Tazio]

This is an interesting read, if this is how a rich man is treated in the US then god help the poor. 
 

https://www.rockcellarmagazine.com/sturgill-simpson-coronavirus-diagnosis-frustrations-instagram-update/

[vegas-voss]

2 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

From the PHE weekly Flu update. It’s the English stats but a large sample.

 

This is from Week 10 (5 March) and gives a better idea of the significant change in Infections 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870503/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_10_2020.pdf

 

It is clear, albeit with the benefit of hindsight, that something unusual was starting to happen with the first significant uptick in Week 3, 2020. That was early in the outbreak when WHO still hadn’t admitted to its seriousness and I would doubt if Doctors in this country were looking for anything other than seasonal flu related deaths. 

 

This reports refer to “Respiratory Infections” although I did find pneumonia deaths listed elsewhere and there was a link to the rate of infection. The age cross-section was 65+. I’m sure it was ONS data but I don’t recall exactly where on that site. 

 

 

 

 

So kind of around the time when WHO were just reporting about pneumonia  in China.

 

https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/

Edited April 13, 2020 by vegas-voss

[Thunderstruck]

15 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

So kind of around the time when WHO were just reporting about pneumonia  in China.

 

https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/

 

Indeed but weeks later they were still issuing updates suggesting it was localised and not human to human. See also the WHO response to Trump’s Air Travel restrictions on 31 Jan. 

 

For cases to have started spiking in week 3, infection had happen at least a week earlier so the cases were travellers or someone else infected them here. That strongly suggests it was here in early Jan at latest.

 

Takes me back to earlier point that Chinese secrecy and WHO incompetence/connivance robbed the rest of the World of several vital weeks and God knows how many lives.

[vegas-voss]

2 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

Indeed but weeks later they were still issuing updates suggesting it was localised and not human to human. See also the WHO response to Trump’s Air Travel restrictions on 31 Jan. 

 

For cases to have started spiking in week 3, infection had happen at least a week earlier so the cases were travellers or someone else infected them here. That strongly suggests it was here in early Jan at latest.

 

Takes me back to earlier point that Chinese secrecy and WHO incompetence/connivance robbed the rest of the World of several vital weeks and God knows how many lives.

It's all very murky indeed.

[Ricardo Shillyshally]

BBC news was unintentionally entertaining tonight. They interviewed a guy who runs Clacton Pier.....and his name ? Pierre. 

 

They also had someone called Kelly Beaver on. I know it's childish, but I can't help it 😁

[dobmisterdobster]

Impressive speech from Macron.

Basically the French plan to gradually lift the lockdown restrictions from May 11th.

Schools and nurseries will be among the first things to reopen.

 

Not sure what we are going to do over here.

[Weakened Offender]

3 hours ago, jumpship said:

There will still be Yoons trying to tell us that this is OK.. 

 

There will still be hungry Yoons wanting God to save the queen too. Weirdos. 

[jumpship]

Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested negative for Covid-19 on leaving hospital, his official spokesman said.

The spokesman said it was “standard practice” to be tested before leaving hospital.

Mr Johnson was discharged from St Thomas’ Hospital on Sunday after a week’s stay, including three nights in intensive care.

He is recovering at his country residence, Chequers, and has been reunited with his pregnant fiancée Carrie Symonds.

His spokesman added he is not “currently carrying out government work” and is “focusing on his recovery.”

[frankblack]

23 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Impressive speech from Macron.

Basically the French plan to gradually lift the lockdown restrictions from May 11th.

Schools and nurseries will be among the first things to reopen.

 

Not sure what we are going to do over here.

 

Looks to me that we may have another 4 - 6 weeks of lockdown before some restrictions get lifted.  However France's position is based on having the testing capability in place and infection rates down.

 

Is there any evidence we will have the testing infrastructure in 4 to 6 weeks even if numbers improve?

[graygo]

Trump losing the plot with the CNN reporter again 

[shaun.lawson]

"We're doing everything we can"    

 

 

 

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

4 hours ago, skinnybob72 said:

The daily ‘number of deaths’ updates are a bit meaningless as they lack any kind of context - other than being compared to other countries. They seem like big numbers on their own but I’ve wondered how they compare to the expected number of deaths from ALL illnesses in an average year. 
 

ONS death statistics - covering England & Wales - are currently up to 27th March, with the next weekly update due tomorrow. 
 

Deaths of CV19 were only just beginning to increase at that point with around 600 being the reported number. The overall figures for 2020 do not stand out compared to any of the years 2015 to 2019, so if the virus was around since January, albeit it probably wasn’t being looked for as a cause of death, it doesn’t appear to have affected the overall numbers. 
 

The next few weeks updates will show a true picture of how many ‘extra’ deaths there have been as a result of the virus, as we know that over 11k deaths are being attributed to CV19. 
 

 

Can also assume thx to isolation flu deaths would have been less too and less traffic on roads mean less accidents.

I still think that in 3 years time the extra deaths from COVID19 will be less than 1% blimp on the total as many older and frail folks would have past in that time.

Still the shocking numbers of younger people a lot of them NHS staff is so sad. Also the pointing out that 780 people = 4 plane crashes does show what a tragedy this is.

 

[The Mighty Thor]

7 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Looks to me that we may have another 4 - 6 weeks of lockdown before some restrictions get lifted.  However France's position is based on having the testing capability in place and infection rates down.

 

Is there any evidence we will have the testing infrastructure in 4 to 6 weeks even if numbers improve?

We'll have 300,000,34,74,974,000 tests in place by then.

[frankblack]

7 hours ago, shaun.lawson said:

"We're doing everything we can"    

 

 

 

 

There does need to be a full independent inquiry into the government's so called efforts in procuring PPE and ventilators.  Ignoring offers from manufacturers who specialise in making ventilators over a vacum cleaner business is suspicious at best.

[The Mighty Thor]

3 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

There does need to be a full independent inquiry into the government's so called efforts in procuring PPE and ventilators.  Ignoring offers from manufacturers who specialise in making ventilators over a vacum cleaner business is suspicious at best.

I hope the individual in those tweets takes everything they have to a decent investigative journalist, like Alex Thomson C4

[DETTY29]

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by DETTY29

[AlimOzturk]

8 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, if only we kept Theresa May as Prime Minister everything would fine. 

 

 

[DETTY29]

Just now, AlimOzturk said:

 

Yeah, if only we kept Theresa May as Prime Minister everything would fine. 

 

 

There is that.

 

I'd need to check all their parties to see if the link is female and social democrats.

[The Internet]

Doesn't matter how damaging the lockdown is, it won't be as damaging as the health care system collapsing if everyone goes about as normal. This needs to be done for now. 

[AlimOzturk]

Why aren't care home deaths not being included into the figures yet? It is almost as if the UK government are trying to manipulate the numbers to not give a true reflection of the situation.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[Dawnrazor]

7 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Doesn't matter how damaging the lockdown is, it won't be as damaging as the health care system collapsing if everyone goes about as normal. This needs to be done for now. 

😥

[The Internet]

5 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Why aren't care home deaths not being included into the figures yet? It is almost as if the UK government are trying to manipulate the numbers to not give a true reflection of the situation.

 

 

 

They've been open about only including hospital deaths at this stage. But yeah, the numbers don't give an accurate reflection. 

[Cade]

11 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Why aren't care home deaths not being included into the figures yet? It is almost as if the UK government are trying to manipulate the numbers to not give a true reflection of the situation.

 

 

They've been trying to manipulate the numbers downwards since Lockdown began, so they can justify sending us all back to work ASAP.

 

Never mind the 2nd wave that will far surpass the first wave of the outbreak when we go back to work

 

[AlimOzturk]

7 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

They've been open about only including hospital deaths at this stage. But yeah, the numbers don't give an accurate reflection. 

 

Almost as if the old and vulnerable in care homes don't count it would seem. Been reading that they are being pressured into signing DNR forms 

 

Every society should be judged on how they treat the old and vulnerable and we are currently failing them in every area.

 

Government should hang its head in shame. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[milky_26]

15 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Why aren't care home deaths not being included into the figures yet? It is almost as if the UK government are trying to manipulate the numbers to not give a true reflection of the situation.

 

 

it was explained on the bbc this morning, for deaths in care homes a doctor needs to sign off the death with the cause/suspected cause. then a family member/friend needs to register the death this takes on average 5 days that is why the latest figures released for all deaths in the UK (possibly just england cant remember) is up to friday 3rd april

 

"

Nearly half of all deaths (47%) registered in London in the week ending 3 April were linked to Covid-19, new figures show.

Figures released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that across England and Wales, one in five of the 16,387 death certificates issued that week mentioned the disease."

Edited April 14, 2020 by milky_26

[vegas-voss]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-england-casualties/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-could-be-15-higher-than-shown-in-daily-data-ons-idUSKCN21W0YA

[The Internet]

3 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

Almost as if the old and vulnerable in care homes don't count it would seem. Been reading that they are being pressured into signing DNR forms 

 

Every society should be judged on how they treat the old and vulnerable and we are currently failing them in every area.

 

Government should hang its head in shame. 

 

Agreed. 

[Shanks]

England/Wales broke their record for most deaths in a week since records began back in 2005.  

[vegas-voss]

8 minutes ago, Shanks said:

England/Wales broke their record for most deaths in a week since records began back in 2005.  

That link I reported it says 46% of all deaths recorded in London on week 14 were Covid 19 related

[Cade]

Two care home providers have announced 521 suspected covid-19 related deaths in the last few weeks.

 

We could see an avalanche of other care homes releasing stats now and the true death toll will jump significantly.

[I P Knightley]

1 hour ago, DETTY29 said:

 

 

Finland, though. Eh?

[Jambo-Jimbo]

45 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Why aren't care home deaths not being included into the figures yet? It is almost as if the UK government are trying to manipulate the numbers to not give a true reflection of the situation.

 

 

 

I'd imagine It's a mammoth task collating all that data from all over the country from literally hundreds if not thousands of Registration offices.

Also in England you have 5 days to register a death, 8 days in Scotland so there is always going to be a time lag, and daily figures will never show the real daily figures of deaths outwith of a hospital in care homes or in the home, not immediately they won't.

 

A rough example, 500 deaths could occur in lets say care homes in England, but only 100 deaths get registered each day over the next 5 days, or 300 one day, 50 the next and 150 the next day, remember though you may have 500 deaths the next day and the next, so you could get 1000 deaths registered today but they all occurred on different days over the last 5 days.

Only once all that data is collated in the coming weeks or months will they know that 500 people died on that one particular day.

 

Don't think the Government can manipulate the figures tbh, the ONS as the NRS are independent from Government control and report directly to Parliament.

Besides in Scotland death information is public information, I could if I wanted to, once the information is loaded into the system go and view every death certificate issued in Scotland for 2020 and record the cause of death, you could do the same, in England I think you can view this information at Kew.

It's kinda hard for Government to manipulate information when that information is in the public domain and is available to joe public.

[vegas-voss]

We go on about China fudging numbers which they Def are but our own goverment is doing the same and would have continued to do so if not for pressure put upon them.

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I'd imagine It's a mammoth task collating all that data from all over the country from literally hundreds if not thousands of Registration offices.

Also in England you have 5 days to register a death, 8 days in Scotland so there is always going to be a time lag, and daily figures will never show the real daily figures of deaths outwith of a hospital in care homes or in the home, not immediately they won't.

 

A rough example, 500 deaths could occur in lets say care homes in England, but only 100 deaths get registered each day over the next 5 days, or 300 one day, 50 the next and 150 the next day, remember though you may have 500 deaths the next day and the next, so you could get 1000 deaths registered today but they all occurred on different days over the last 5 days.

Only once all that data is collated in the coming weeks or months will they know that 500 people died on that one particular day.

 

Don't think the Government can manipulate the figures tbh, the ONS as the NRS are independent from Government control and report directly to Parliament.

Besides in Scotland death information is public information, I could if I wanted to, once the information is loaded into the system go and view every death certificate issued in Scotland for 2020 and record the cause of death, you could do the same, in England I think you can view this information at Kew.

It's kinda hard for Government to manipulate information when that information is in the public domain and is available to joe public.

It's not manipulation really it's failure to bother mentioning them

[shaun.lawson]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

Lockdowns are incredibly painful and won’t get rid of the thing.
 

Vaccines and/or treatments are at least 12 months away and in reality much longer, without being exposed to potential worst risk  than the virus. 
 

Scientifically we don’t know enough to do anything with all that much certainty ie. reinfection, immunity etc. 
 

We are going to need to learn to live a life with this thing in play. However, I see no other option of learning that life as life needs to continue.

 

The longer this lockdown goes on the more damaging it becomes and at some point that damage will outweigh the damage cause by COVID.

 

No.

 

We cannot "learn to live life with this thing in play" when "this thing in play" will completely overwhelm the health service without a lockdown. There'd be exponentially more families grieving and traumatised if we didn't have it in place.