Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Jambo-Jimbo]

4 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

It's not manipulation really it's failure to bother mentioning them

 

The data is being released is it not, so it is being mentioned and reported upon.

Unless you want it mentioned in the daily presser, the daily presser which many on here dismiss as a pile of pish anyway.

Would you prefer the Government to tell you (and be disputed) or an Independent organisation tell you the figures.

 

Besides the UK is one of only a few European countries to release death numbers in care homes.

I'd hate to imagine what the real death totals are like in Italy or Spain et al, because they don't include deaths in the home or in care homes.

 

 

 

[vegas-voss]

3 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

The data is being released is it not, so it is being mentioned and reported upon.

Unless you want it mentioned in the daily presser, the daily presser which many on here dismiss as a pile of pish anyway.

Would you prefer the Government to tell you (and be disputed) or an Independent organisation tell you the figures.

 

Besides the UK is one of only a few European countries to release death numbers in care homes.

I'd hate to imagine what the real death totals are like in Italy or Spain et al, because they don't include deaths in the home or in care homes.

 

 

 

42 % of deaths in Italy have come from care homes

 

I know you don't like the thread to be political but you seem to have a lot of faith in this goverment despite the questions now being asked by journalists.

Edited April 14, 2020 by vegas-voss

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 minute ago, vegas-voss said:

42 % of deaths in Italy have come from care homes

 

When did they release that figure, because it was widely reported that Italy didn't include care home or home deaths in their daily figures.

[vegas-voss]

Just now, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

When did they release that figure, because it was widely reported that Italy didn't include care home or home deaths in their daily figures.

I put up a link yesterday or the day before that Italy , Spain and France had said the around 50% of deaths had come from care homes.

[vegas-voss]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

 

Different link but that's news from six hours ago

Edited April 14, 2020 by vegas-voss

[graygo]

2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It is a worry that the death toll in England and Wales for all deaths in a week was up 6000 at a time when the known/official COVID19 death toll was at 4000. The increase in deaths was over 50% and I assume that will only increase. Talk of living with this thing look way premature to me.

 

I'd like to know what the death toll was on the same week last year as a comparison. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Just now, vegas-voss said:

I put up a link yesterday or the day before that Italy , Spain and France had said the around 50% of deaths had come from care homes.

 

👍

 

Little surprise that figure tbh, as care homes tend to house most of the frail and elderly in society, they were always going to get hit bad.

You need to only look at how a case of Norovirus spreads like wildfire to see what would happen when Covid-19 hit.

 

[graygo]

3 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

 

Different link but that's news from six hours ago

 

That's frightening.

 

The government figures should only be used to measure trends, the actual figures don't really matter in that regard.

[Cade]

 

[milky_26]

9 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

I'd like to know what the death toll was on the same week last year as a comparison. 

that 6k increase is in comparison to the average number of deaths over the last 5 years for that week.

[graygo]

13 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

that 6k increase is in comparison to the average number of deaths over the last 5 years for that week.

 

Got you now I think, so 4,000 extra put down to Covid-19 and 2,000 from care homes or at home. 

Is that right? 

 

Edited to add that if that's the case then the normal average deaths in a week would be just over 10,000 and is now around 16,000 again am I getting that right?

Edited April 14, 2020 by graygo

[Cade]

 

[milky_26]

3 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Got you now I think, so 4,000 extra put down to Covid-19 and 2,000 from care homes or at home. 

Is that right? 

not sure, basically the 5 year average for that week is 10k, this year it shows 16k deaths. the bbc article is saying only just over half of the extra 6k deaths are related to covid 19

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825

[graygo]

Just now, milky_26 said:

not sure, basically the 5 year average for that week is 10k, this year it shows 16k deaths. the bbc article is saying only just over half of the extra 6k deaths are related to covid 19

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825

 

Thanks, confirms my edit above. 👍

[graygo]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

The UK death toll being stated at the time was around 4000 mark, that is the numbers quoted every day as dying in hospitals, the total number of deaths increased by 6000 in a week!! So given that maybe 2000 of the 4000 would have died anyway at that time that gives us a figure of 4000 extra deaths that are not being reported or recorded quickly enough, this thing is far bigger than they are telling us.

 

 

Or this part is true which is equally concerning.

 

It could be that cases of coronavirus are going undetected or other factors related to the lockdown and outbreak are having an impact, such as people not seeking treatment for other conditions or mental health and violence-related deaths going up.

[milky_26]

6 minutes ago, Cade said:

 

the one thing i would caution about these results just now is that it is one increase. it could be an outlier and anomaly. i dont think it will be but we need to wait for at least two more weeks data to draw any meaningful conclusions

[Cade]

https://obr.uk/coronavirus-reference-scenario/

 

We assume a three-month lockdown due to public health restrictions followed by another three-month period when they are partially lifted.

 

Real GDP falls 35 per cent in the second quarter, but bounces back quickly.
Unemployment rises by more than 2 million to 10 per cent in the second quarter, but then declines more slowly than GDP recovers.

 

[dobmisterdobster]

2 hours ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

Almost as if the old and vulnerable in care homes don't count it would seem. Been reading that they are being pressured into signing DNR forms 

 

Every society should be judged on how they treat the old and vulnerable and we are currently failing them in every area.

 

Government should hang its head in shame. 

 

The government has nothing to do with care homes.

The care homes are responsible for the health and welfare of their residents.

Many of which provide far better care than the NHS.

[Greedy Jambo]

Busiest I've seen it outside today, a lot more cars on the roads as well. 

 

[manaliveits105]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I'd imagine It's a mammoth task collating all that data from all over the country from literally hundreds if not thousands of Registration offices.

Also in England you have 5 days to register a death, 8 days in Scotland so there is always going to be a time lag, and daily figures will never show the real daily figures of deaths outwith of a hospital in care homes or in the home, not immediately they won't.

 

A rough example, 500 deaths could occur in lets say care homes in England, but only 100 deaths get registered each day over the next 5 days, or 300 one day, 50 the next and 150 the next day, remember though you may have 500 deaths the next day and the next, so you could get 1000 deaths registered today but they all occurred on different days over the last 5 days.

Only once all that data is collated in the coming weeks or months will they know that 500 people died on that one particular day.

 

Don't think the Government can manipulate the figures tbh, the ONS as the NRS are independent from Government control and report directly to Parliament.

Besides in Scotland death information is public information, I could if I wanted to, once the information is loaded into the system go and view every death certificate issued in Scotland for 2020 and record the cause of death, you could do the same, in England I think you can view this information at Kew.

It's kinda hard for Government to manipulate information when that information is in the public domain and is available to joe public.

Get with the programme forget the truth 

[Thunderstruck]

Another myth exploded. 

[manaliveits105]

Jason better tell the FM and Health Sec they are still looking into !

[The Mighty Thor]

1 hour ago, milky_26 said:

the one thing i would caution about these results just now is that it is one increase. it could be an outlier and anomaly. i dont think it will be but we need to wait for at least two more weeks data to draw any meaningful conclusions

It's also data from week ending 3rd April. 

So two full weeks behind, so we'd need to wait two weeks to see the real picture as it stands today, which is generally being talked of as being near the peak by HM government. 

50% out is not a good place to be on your numbers. 

[Ehllhayapeh]

2 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I'd imagine It's a mammoth task collating all that data from all over the country from literally hundreds if not thousands of Registration offices.

Also in England you have 5 days to register a death, 8 days in Scotland so there is always going to be a time lag, and daily figures will never show the real daily figures of deaths outwith of a hospital in care homes or in the home, not immediately they won't.

 

A rough example, 500 deaths could occur in lets say care homes in England, but only 100 deaths get registered each day over the next 5 days, or 300 one day, 50 the next and 150 the next day, remember though you may have 500 deaths the next day and the next, so you could get 1000 deaths registered today but they all occurred on different days over the last 5 days.

Only once all that data is collated in the coming weeks or months will they know that 500 people died on that one particular day.

 

Don't think the Government can manipulate the figures tbh, the ONS as the NRS are independent from Government control and report directly to Parliament.

Besides in Scotland death information is public information, I could if I wanted to, once the information is loaded into the system go and view every death certificate issued in Scotland for 2020 and record the cause of death, you could do the same, in England I think you can view this information at Kew.

It's kinda hard for Government to manipulate information when that information is in the public domain and is available to joe public.

 

All these acronymned bodies are not as independent as they look.

 

Case in point the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) which regularly churns out scotland is poor stats is actually funded by the tory party.

 

ONS and NRS will have tenticles that lead back to those in power.

 

So Aye, they can and will massage the figures if they so desire.

[Francis Albert]

17 hours ago, jumpship said:

Why doesn't Macaskill name the companies concerned?

[skinnybob72]

1 hour ago, graygo said:

 

I'd like to know what the death toll was on the same week last year as a comparison. 

ONS are reporting on week 14 (up to 4th April) and the figure is 16387. 
 

The same week last year was 10126, and the average for week 14 during the last decade was 10019. 
 

If the hospital CV deaths at the end of that week was circa 4K then it suggests that there were a further 2K deaths coming from outside of hospitals, ie care homes. 
 

Next week’s update could be even worse. 

[Cade]

aYe BuT wHeN aRe We GeTtInG bAcK tO wOrK?

 

 

[jambogaza]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

Another myth exploded. 

 

Sturgeon has expressed concern about it and said it is being investigated.

 

Clearly requires more precise clarification as it would be unacceptable, if in any way true.

[Ehllhayapeh]

Lo and Behold OBR predicting GDP down 35% and 2 million out of work in the Heil today. The OBR is not the independent body it seems.

 

They are sowing the seeds that people need to take one for the team and go back to work because the economy will shrink massively otherwise. To me, this is conditioning people to be willing to risk going back to work. They are now talking about deaths from "economic misery" like thats somehow a trade off to deaths from covid. With income support schemes noone should be allowed to die from economic hardship.

 

The deficit will be highest since the second world war - there we go nice imagery for the public there about pushing through adversity and Britain needs YOU to go back to work.

 

I dont trust the right wing press and the article today is blatant conditioning. In my opinion.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8216537/Cabinet-chaos-coronavirus-lockdown-amid-warnings-economic-death-toll.html

 

[graygo]

29 minutes ago, skinnybob72 said:

ONS are reporting on week 14 (up to 4th April) and the figure is 16387. 
 

The same week last year was 10126, and the average for week 14 during the last decade was 10019. 
 

If the hospital CV deaths at the end of that week was circa 4K then it suggests that there were a further 2K deaths coming from outside of hospitals, ie care homes. 
 

Next week’s update could be even worse. 

 

Thanks, yes that was clarified earlier. 👍

[redjambo]

Today's Scottish figures show the least folk in ICU with coronavirus since 4 April.

[steve123]

Sturgeon has been drawn on what some of the steps for exiting lock down would be ( nothing other than has been discussed before ie Schools etc) I think it is the first time they have got her to discuss it rather than batting in away !!

Edited April 14, 2020 by steve123

[Greedy Jambo]

44 minutes ago, Cade said:

aYe BuT wHeN aRe We GeTtInG bAcK tO wOrK?

 

 

 

I'm guessing you've got another month of this minimum. 

[ri Alban]

What's this with English prioritisation of PPE? 

[coconut doug]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

Another myth exploded. 

 

Are you telling us that the PPE suppliers are not prioritising England?

[Cade]

Even NS has said that the PPE companies are not prioritising England but she wants that officially confirmed to put the rumour down.

 

 

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

4 hours ago, Cade said:

They've been trying to manipulate the numbers downwards since Lockdown began, so they can justify sending us all back to work ASAP.

 

Never mind the 2nd wave that will far surpass the first wave of the outbreak when we go back to work

 

Very Trump-esque, profit before people. Likes good hard right, capitalist.

**** the Tories.

[Cade]

Trump's "Expert council" on when to relax all restrictions and re-start daily life:

 

Ivanka Trump

Jared Kushner

Mark Meadows

Larry Kudlow

Wilbur Ross

Robert Lightizer

Steven Mnuchin

 

Number of medical experts: 0

 

[coconut doug]

13 minutes ago, Cade said:

Even NS has said that the PPE companies are not prioritising England but she wants that officially confirmed to put the rumour down.

 

 

 

i didn't hear her say that. I did hear her say that she didn't want to politicise the matter and that as far as as she was aware they had an agreement to work cooperatively. She also said that new information had become available and wanted to check the situation out.

 

  The National and others claim that Gompels (PPE supplier) had apologised on their website because they were no longer able to supply Scotland and Wales. They claim they were told by Public Health England that they could only supply customers who were registered in England.

[The Internet]

10 minutes ago, Cade said:

Trump's "Expert council" on when to relax all restrictions and re-start daily life:

 

Ivanka Trump

Jared Kushner

Mark Meadows

Larry Kudlow

Wilbur Ross

Robert Lightizer

Steven Mnuchin

 

Number of medical experts: 0

 

 

Number of great people, exceptional people, the best people: 7

[Spellczech]

18 minutes ago, Cade said:

Trump's "Expert council" on when to relax all restrictions and re-start daily life:

 

Ivanka Trump

Jared Kushner

Mark Meadows

Larry Kudlow

Wilbur Ross

Robert Lightizer

Steven Mnuchin

 

Number of medical experts: 0

 

How can any American be comfortable with this nepotism - He treats governing the USA like a two-bit Italian family business...

Edited April 14, 2020 by Spellczech

[frankblack]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

aYe BuT wHeN aRe We GeTtInG bAcK tO wOrK?

 

 

 

Some of us never stopped.  Being at home with nae mates is not great either.

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, Spellczech said:

How can any American be comfortable with this nepotism - He treats governing the USA like a two-bit Italian family business...

They lap it up they find it entertaining.Its like they ( his supporters ) are only interested in soundbites and shouting folk down.To be honest though it's not much different here now.

[frankblack]

21 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

i didn't hear her say that. I did hear her say that she didn't want to politicise the matter and that as far as as she was aware they had an agreement to work cooperatively. She also said that new information had become available and wanted to check the situation out.

 

  The National and others claim that Gompels (PPE supplier) had apologised on their website because they were no longer able to supply Scotland and Wales. They claim they were told by Public Health England that they could only supply customers who were registered in England.

 

Sturgeon said on her briefing the Scottish Health Secretary was contacting Matt Hancock to find out the truth.  At the moment the Scottish Government don't know for sure this is actually happening.

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, Spellczech said:

How can any American be comfortable with this nepotism - He treats governing the USA like a two-bit Italian family business...

They lap it up they find it entertaining.Its like they ( his supporters ) are only interested in soundbites and shouting folk down.To be honest though it's not much different here now.

[coconut doug]

4 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Sturgeon said on her briefing the Scottish Health Secretary was contacting Matt Hancock to find out the truth.  At the moment the Scottish Government don't know for sure this is actually happening.

 

That is indeed my understanding. Some people on here seem to be better informed than us though.

[Thunderstruck]

1 hour ago, coconut doug said:

 

Are you telling us that the PPE suppliers are not prioritising England?

No, I’m not. Scotland’s National Clinical Director is telling you that. 
 

If you had read the post correctly, you would have seen that I was referencing the statement by the Clinical Director that the claim was “rubbish”. I sure he wouldn’t have said as much on radio without being sure of his facts. 

 

 

[manaliveits105]

1 hour ago, redjambo said:

Today's Scottish figures show the least folk in ICU with coronavirus since 4 April.

Thanks for attempting to bring good or hopeful news to this thread but it really doesnt seem to be what its all about 

[graygo]

11 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

That is too simplistic an approach as some of the 4K deaths would have been in the 10k of normal deaths as some would have died anyway. What it shows is that those who are trying to say that the real death rate is smaller than the recorded figures are wrong, it is much higher, maybe as much as twice. 
 

 

 

Is it not suggesting that there are 6k extra deaths whether in hospital or not and logic tells you that they are related either directly or indirectly to Covid-19?

 

A simplistic view I know but that's how I see it.

[GinRummy]

Wonder how many people are dead in their homes and haven’t been found.