Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[frankblack]

Just now, Thaw said:

 

I can only guess that he means he thinks the UK, US or other governments are also guilty of "criminal negligence"; possibly he thinks they are worse than China.

 

I said above earlier that I think these governments will have to explain themselves.

 

They didn't make doctors disappear and arrest anyone trying to expose the outbreak, which was my point above.  The rest of the world only found out when the Chinese could no longer suppress the news getting out.

[corkie64]

3 minutes ago, Thaw said:

 

I can only guess that he means he thinks the UK, US or other governments are also guilty of "criminal negligence"; possibly he thinks they are worse than China.

I can only guess...

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

Doesn't say it is just thats the region that has got restrictions put in place.

 

I was just thinking what the Chinese governments go-to position would be.

[Chaps]

Not sure if already posted but Spain are beginning to lift restrictions for people in manufacturing, construction and some other services allowed to go back to work. Likewise Italy as of tomorrow.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Chaps

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, GinRummy said:

Fares will be down but loads of folk don’t have cars and taxis would, I’d imagine, be safer than buses. I get a taxi for my weekly shop now, whereas before I’d just get things every day or two. Could be some drivers don’t want to work because of health risk as well. 

 

I don't see how a taxi is any less of a risk than a bus if everyone is using them?  Safest option would be home delivery.

[OBE]

49 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Not very good at it, are they. Probably trying to control the virus spread. And why not, they have experience.

 

China has previous trying to control SARS you say...

[The Mighty Thor]

6 minutes ago, Thaw said:

 

I can only guess that he means he thinks the UK, US or other governments are also guilty of "criminal negligence"; possibly he thinks they are worse than China.

He has a point, to a degree. 

I wouldn't necessarily say there's criminal negligence in the truest sense, but there's been negligence and a bit of misinformation.

The narrative shifting and planting of ideas to see how they fly then rowing back on them is government 101.

[GinRummy]

Just now, frankblack said:

 

I don't see how a taxi is any less of a risk than a bus if everyone is using them?  Safest option would be home delivery.

More risk of person to person contact. Need to touch one thing, the door handle in a taxi, rather than numerous handles and rails and buzzer  on a bus. Come into more contact with skanky ***** on buses imo, who couldn’t care less about social distancing. Can’t get home deliveries and I’d rather pay the extra fo a cab than take a delivery slot that could/should be going to someone in the shielded group.

[Thunderstruck]

6 minutes ago, Cade said:

Outbreak hits China December.

 

WHO advises global vigilance and preparedness in January.

 

Trump told to start social distancing in February.

 

Nobody in the West lifts a finger until thousands of people start dying in March.

 

Play the blame game all you like.

 

The outbreak started in a China by early December, at the latest. China kept it quiet for several weeks  

 

The WHO didn’t wake-up to danger until late January. Largest funder of WHO is China and Head of WHO is a Chinese proxy. 
 

The Virus was international by early January at the latest. 
 

It had to be for the Diamond Princess to become a floating Petri-dish by the time it sailed Yokohama. 

 

The UK had an unexplained rise in pneumonia deaths in latter half of January. The time lag between infection and being symptomatic = 7 to 14 days. 

 

By the time we knew the reality, it was too late and the virus has been circulating since and we have been quietly developing Herd Immunity. 
 

Trump did impose a partial travel ban for China on 31 Jan. The WHO response was,

 

We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions inconsistent with the International Health Regulations,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told it’s executive board, “Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit. So far, 22 countries have reported such restrictions to WHO. Where such measures have been implemented, we urge that they are short in duration, proportionate to the public health risks, and are reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves.“

 

On 5 Feb, an expert called to a House Subcommittee by the Democrats stated, 

 

 

We need to seriously reexamine the current policy of banning travel from China and quarantining returning travelers. All of the evidence we have indicates that travel restrictions and quarantines directed at individual countries are unlikely to keep the virus out of our borders. These measures may exacerbate the epidemic’s social and economic tolls and can make us less safe. Simply put, this virus is spreading too quickly and too silently, and our surveillance is too limited for us to truly know which countries have active transmission and which don’t. The virus could enter the U.S. from other parts of the world not on our restricted list, and it may already be circulating here.

The U.S. was a target of travel bans and quarantines during the 2009 flu pandemic. It didn’t work to stop the spread, and it hurt our country. I am concerned that by our singling out China for travel bans, we are effectively penalizing it for reporting cases. This may diminish its willingness to further share data and chill other countries’ willingness to be transparent about their own outbreaks. Travel bans and quarantines will make us less safe if they divert attention and resources from higher priority disease mitigation approaches that we know are needed to respond to cases within the United States.

… We often see, when we have emerging disease outbreaks, our first instinct is to try to lock down travel to prevent the introduction of virus to our country. And that is a completely understandable instinct. I have never seen instances in which that has worked when we are talking about a virus at this scale.

Respiratory viruses like this one, unlike others–they just move quickly. They are hard to spot because they look like many other diseases. It’s very difficult to interrupt them at borders. You would need to have complete surveillance in order to do that. And we simply don’t have that.

[DarthVodka]

15 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Yeah - I would advise waiting as you will need one hell of an annual leave allocation if you get quarantined on arrival and return!

 

plus if you book now no insurance company will pay out if it does tits up

[FWJ]

This could go here or the “things you’ve always wanted to know” thread.

We are advised that washing hands with soap and water for twenty seconds deactivates the virus (because of the nature of soaps and detergents and the lipid envelope of the virus)

Why, then, are we advised to wash clothes towels etc at 60c - hotter than the hand could bear?

The normal wash cycle in my machine at 40c (not including rinsing and spinning) is around 45 minutes never mind 20 seconds.

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Tommy Brown said:

It's the wee stupid childish posts that got my tits.

I have been criticising UK government action, their lack of answers at press conferences.

"We follow advice, do at the right time". It's turned into hollow shit.

We were watching Italy, and failed to react quick enough.

I could type for hours.

 

Oh aye. Corrie was predictive.

 

 

 

The UK government does need held to account on a number of points such as Dyson, lack of protective gear for the NHS, testing, going into lockdown slower than other countries.

 

However, I can't help but think that the reality was the virus was global by January so closing the ports may have been too late due to China failing to give warning.  Remember, China was under serious pressure from the U.S. economically at the start of the year and revealing this outbreak would have not helped them.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

20 minutes ago, DarthVodka said:

 

plus if you book now no insurance company will pay out if it does tits up

 

Going forwards don't be surprised to see Covid-19 clauses in travel insurances, example if there is an outbreak in your resort they don't pay out if you need to quarantine etc etc.

I also expect that if you have a pre-existing medical condition it'll cost you a lot more than it already does, and again Covid-19 cover will be excluded, unless you pay an extra premium for that cover.

 

[corkie64]

Thanks chaps, so glad you agree, it's so politicised one can hardly differentiate with the other in fear of being classed as a sheep baa baa baa... 

[vegas-voss]

 

[JKBMod 12]

Can we keep on topic without the bickering please. 

[JFK-1]

2 hours ago, bobsharp said:

As an eighty five year old who. is in the high risk categories I can easily say that this is the worst thing I have seen in my life. I lived through a war of course as a child one didn't totally understand it, but there was a hope that however it was it would end. I forget the chronology but we also went through a flu epidemic, polio, TB to some extent, and smallpox,  my main memory was of the vaccine that we received an injection for. You knew when someone had just been injected because they wore a red ribbon on their treated arm, because to be bumped on that arm was extremely painful. Aids, Hiv have all passed through. This is different for me, I am not afraid of the worst outcome of death , too old to worry, I am afraid of the life of self isolation becoming the norm, low shelves at stores, line ups and limits to people entering are all more like an occupied country in wartime. In local paper today City of Vancouver mayor talking about the City facing bankruptcy, the news from china about new cases confirms statements I have heard that until there is a vaccine, and possibly even after sudden surprise outbreaks could occur, everything tells me not to be afraid, and in a way I am not, but I am apprehensive about the future for us all and that does concern me.

 

 

Fully agree it's a crisis unprecedented in living memory. As you say even during the war everyone knew it would ultimately end with everything gradually returning to normality.

With this thing however though it wont result in permanent isolation because that's impossible it's unclear how to navigate our way out of it. And life may never be the same as it was before.

I have a feeling that ultimately we're simply going to have to permanently live with covid 19  just as we do with many other viruses such as flu. Problem is this has a far higher fatality rate than flu.

It may become an evolutionary moment. It will take decades for multiple generations to develop some level of resistance. Flu has been around as far as we can tell way back into recorded history. We have developed as much resistance to it as we ever will and it still kills us.

That's what's disturbing about covid 19. Far greater fatality rate which isn't going to change anytime soon while it would appear there is no way out of this aside from accepting that we have to exist with it and it will kill us in significant numbers no matter what we do.

Isolation aside which obviously isn't a solution we can indefinitely live with. 

[GinRummy]

15 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

The UK government does need held to account on a number of points such as Dyson, lack of protective gear for the NHS, testing, going into lockdown slower than other countries.

 

However, I can't help but think that the reality was the virus was global by January so closing the ports may have been too late due to China failing to give warning.  Remember, China was under serious pressure from the U.S. economically at the start of the year and revealing this outbreak would have not helped them.

I get a lot of the blame, for their slow communication, lies with China but it doesn’t excuse our governments inadequate response. I could bang on about ppe and ventilators and banning international flights and contracts for preferred companies etc. but my honest opinion is our governments, like many individual citizens, just thought it wouldn’t happen here.

By the time they realised it was happening here it was all just reactive measures. 

[Thaw]

Press briefing just started.

[The Mighty Thor]

Here's Raab C Brexit on the presser/sermon.

 

Dearly beloved......

 

 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

Yeah - I would advise waiting as you will need one hell of an annual leave allocation if you get quarantined on arrival and return!

But if they are staying with friends / family they would be ok wouldn’t they?

[frankblack]

2 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

But if they are staying with friends / family they would be ok wouldn’t they?

 

Don't think that makes any difference.  The assumption will always be they travelled infected at either end.

[Morgan]

1 hour ago, DarthVodka said:

 

plus if you book now no insurance company will pay out if it does tits up

Very good point.

[Jambo 4 Ever]

15 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Don't think that makes any difference.  The assumption will always be they travelled infected at either end.

Yeh but if they are staying with friends / family - they would just Be quarantining with them 

[Cade]

I wonder why the UK daily presser only ever compares UK performance against Italy and Spain, two of the worst hit nations

They never seem to compare us to, say, Germany or France  

[Spellczech]

Wow they couldn't get out of that room quick enough after deflecting on that last journo's questions...

[vegas-voss]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

The outbreak started in a China by early December, at the latest. China kept it quiet for several weeks  

 

The WHO didn’t wake-up to danger until late January. Largest funder of WHO is China and Head of WHO is a Chinese proxy. 
 

The Virus was international by early January at the latest. 
 

It had to be for the Diamond Princess to become a floating Petri-dish by the time it sailed Yokohama. 

 

The UK had an unexplained rise in pneumonia deaths in latter half of January. The time lag between infection and being symptomatic = 7 to 14 days. 

 

By the time we knew the reality, it was too late and the virus has been circulating since and we have been quietly developing Herd Immunity. 
 

Trump did impose a partial travel ban for China on 31 Jan. The WHO response was,

 

 

 

On 5 Feb, an expert called to a House Subcommittee by the Democrats stated, 

 

 

 

Where did you find out about the rise in pneumonia cases in the UK in January ?

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, Spellczech said:

Wow they couldn't get out of that room quick enough after deflecting on that last journo's questions...

What did they ask ?

 

I have gave up watching them.

[Spellczech]

Just now, vegas-voss said:

What did they ask ?

 

I have gave up watching them.

Basically straight out asked the scientists if they got it wrong, and if it was "the Plan" for the UK to have more deaths than any other European country. They blathered about measurements of deaths across countries being inconsistent after previously showing a slide which compared deaths whilst commenting that it showed deaths in hospitals only as that was the consistent measure across the various countries on the graph! Then denied that S Korea's approach was better as it also is a different country...

[Dawnrazor]

Russia have reported 2500 new cases today apparently. 

[frankblack]

5 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

Yeh but if they are staying with friends / family - they would just Be quarantining with them 

 

That isn't the same as quarantine in a government facility, in strict isolation to ensure you don't get sick.

[Cade]

 "We're doing about the same as Italy and Spain"

Journos: "So how come we're not as good as SK?"

 "You cannot compare different countries, we all measure stuff differently and are on different curves"

 

  

[highlandjambo3]

3 hours ago, bobsharp said:

As an eighty five year old who. is in the high risk categories I can easily say that this is the worst thing I have seen in my life. I lived through a war of course as a child one didn't totally understand it, but there was a hope that however it was it would end. I forget the chronology but we also went through a flu epidemic, polio, TB to some extent, and smallpox,  my main memory was of the vaccine that we received an injection for. You knew when someone had just been injected because they wore a red ribbon on their treated arm, because to be bumped on that arm was extremely painful. Aids, Hiv have all passed through. This is different for me, I am not afraid of the worst outcome of death , too old to worry, I am afraid of the life of self isolation becoming the norm, low shelves at stores, line ups and limits to people entering are all more like an occupied country in wartime. In local paper today City of Vancouver mayor talking about the City facing bankruptcy, the news from china about new cases confirms statements I have heard that until there is a vaccine, and possibly even after sudden surprise outbreaks could occur, everything tells me not to be afraid, and in a way I am not, but I am apprehensive about the future for us all and that does concern me.

 

Hey Bob, stay safe.......
 

one thing is for sure, the way we live will change, hand shaking, hugging, mass gatherings.  We will all be a bit more appreciative of what we have and the way we care for others.

[vegas-voss]

7 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

Basically straight out asked the scientists if they got it wrong, and if it was "the Plan" for the UK to have more deaths than any other European country. They blathered about measurements of deaths across countries being inconsistent after previously showing a slide which compared deaths whilst commenting that it showed deaths in hospitals only as that was the consistent measure across the various countries on the graph! Then denied that S Korea's approach was better as it also is a different country...

 

7 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

Basically straight out asked the scientists if they got it wrong, and if it was "the Plan" for the UK to have more deaths than any other European country. They blathered about measurements of deaths across countries being inconsistent after previously showing a slide which compared deaths whilst commenting that it showed deaths in hospitals only as that was the consistent measure across the various countries on the graph! Then denied that S Korea's approach was better as it also is a different country...

Well good on them for working out they were different countries 😂

 

Nobody wants to say they made a ***** of it though.Thats been abundantly clear from every western country anyway.Also whenever you hear anyone from  WHO interviewed they are reluctant to blame anybody.

Edited April 13, 2020 by vegas-voss

[ri Alban]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

Outbreak hits China December.

 

WHO advises global vigilance and preparedness in January.

 

Trump told to start social distancing in February.

 

Nobody in the West lifts a finger until thousands of people start dying in March.

 

Play the blame game all you like.

 

First 2 deaths in the UK on Brexit day. But still we left it to late March.

[vegas-voss]

Sorry if already posted

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

[Sharpie]

Watched Governor Cuomo for a bit this morning. He was talking about getting things moving again and the problems therein. Of course his theme was New York, but he pointed out how everything had to be well coordinated. For example how do you put people back to work if schools were still closed and children were at home. There would be absolute chaos if transportation was still stopped or greatly reduced, cars would be jamming highways, these wee the ones that impressed me, but there are so many things that have to be considered fortunately there are many, many minds far greater than mine that will resolve the issues.

 

[Sharpie]

 

Double post

Edited April 13, 2020 by bobsharp
double post

[Cade]

3 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Sorry if already posted

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

We just heard on today's presser that care home deaths are not being properly examined for cause of death.

Whitty said: "The doctor will make an assessment based on her or his view about what the cause of death is, that’s what the death certificate says in all cases."

 

So that's that. 

How many people in care home are dying either with or of covid-19 and are simply being recorded as death by heart failure or something else?

 

The entire death tally figures are totally unreliable now.

[The Mighty Thor]

4 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Sorry if already posted

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

I posted about this earlier with a link to the raw data and its caveats.

 

If you search for Faisal Islam from BBC he raised the rise in unexplained pneumonia cases in care homes with a data set to show the numbers versus the 5 year average.

 

Those numbers in the LTCN data would mean we're under-reporting by 40-50%?

 

That's genuinely frightening. 

[vegas-voss]

4 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I posted about this earlier with a link to the raw data and its caveats.

 

If you search for Faisal Islam from BBC he raised the rise in unexplained pneumonia cases in care homes with a data set to show the numbers versus the 5 year average.

 

Those numbers in the LTCN data would mean we're under-reporting by 40-50%?

 

That's genuinely frightening. 

Wow I wasnt expecting a reply with numbers like that.Shocking it's hidden and frightening at how much it's ripping through the homes.As I said earlier in the thread there has been 9 deaths alone in one of the care homes near me.

[The Mighty Thor]

I also thought the ITV dude could have nailed Whitty on the ONS numbers versus the daily sermon numbers. 

He spluttered his way through the answer but if you watched it closely Whitty got more and more red as he went on. 

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, vegas-voss said:

Wow I wasnt expecting a reply with numbers like that.Shocking it's hidden and frightening at how much it's ripping through the homes.As I said earlier in the thread there has been 9 deaths alone in one of the care homes near me.

I read the report and the caveats attached and thought **** me that cannot be right. Surely. 

[vegas-voss]

10 minutes ago, Cade said:

We just heard on today's presser that care home deaths are not being properly examined for cause of death.

Whitty said: "The doctor will make an assessment based on her or his view about what the cause of death is, that’s what the death certificate says in all cases."

 

So that's that. 

How many people in care home are dying either with or of covid-19 and are simply being recorded as death by heart failure or something else?

 

The entire death tally figures are totally unreliable now.

Why hide them this country needs to be scared by the numbers imo cause large swathes of the country still couldn't give a ****.

Edited April 13, 2020 by vegas-voss

[GinRummy]

6 minutes ago, Cade said:

We just heard on today's presser that care home deaths are not being properly examined for cause of death.

Whitty said: "The doctor will make an assessment based on her or his view about what the cause of death is, that’s what the death certificate says in all cases."

 

So that's that. 

How many people in care home are dying either with or of covid-19 and are simply being recorded as death by heart failure or something else?

 

The entire death tally figures are totally unreliable now.

By my mind, that’s all the figures just a load of misleading shite. Confirmed cases are essentially meaningless as nobody can equate that to actual cases which is what is needed to show prevelance of disease and death figures also shite. 
 

Add that to the fact that during the biggest health crisis in living memory, nobody can put accurate numbers together at the weekend or during bank holidays and it leaves you wondering what the point of daily figures are, other than they might be better than nothing. 
 

What an absolute farce. 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, vegas-voss said:

Why hide them this country needs to be scared by the numbers imo and large swathes of the country still couldn't give a ****.

If they can claim we’ve done better than certain other countries it’s a political win.  

[Sirudi]

5 minutes ago, Cade said:

 "We're doing about the same as Italy and Spain"

Journos: "So how come we're not as good as SK?"

 "You cannot compare different countries, we all measure stuff differently and are on different curves"

 

  

I was getting frustrated with certain news outlets reporting as a positive development that that the daily death rate, as a percentage of the total, was reducing.  It would be hard not to.
Also the graphs that are often shown of total death rates don’t really give too much info on what is happening on a day to day basis. One of the scientific advisors a daily press briefing actually said he would expect the graph of total deaths to peak then reduce with time ???
I have made a plot of the daily death rates, taking a 3 day average and adjusting the starting value of each country to get a good overlap, mainly just to see how the curves compare. The trends are surprisingly similar, given the different approaches by countries.

There doesn’t appear to be much of a plateau for Spain and Italy, but it does appear to reduce very gradually. The shutdown won’t be over anytime soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

That isn't the same as quarantine in a government facility, in strict isolation to ensure you don't get sick.

Ah is that what they do in Australia?

[jumpship]

Michael Gove was isolating for two week, was then spotted out jogging.  When asked how he could do that.. He shared that his daughter tested negative for Covid-19.. 

 

Awesome that his daughter got tested when frontline staff have to wait. 

[frankblack]

18 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

Ah is that what they do in Australia?

 

It will be without a vaccine, you will find once flights open up again.