Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[manaliveits105]

7 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Isn’t hindsight a wonderful tool for predicting history.
 

The 2016 exercise was a Worst Case Exercise designed to inform decisions. I have been involved in more than a few of these and never was a plan or concept of operations put together that catered for such a worst case. Ultimately, all governments will take a balanced “Risk Management” position on probabilities together with opportunity cost of provision, be these military, natural disaster or health contingencies. 

 

The existing contingencies were carefully formed by analysis of previous pandemics (see the Hine Report on Swine Fever as an example) and were formed and adopted by all of the UK administrations, each responsible for their own health and care services.
 

It seems that very few countries have been able to cope with this pandemic. Why might that be?
 

Who knows if the existing plans might have proved effective if expected early-warning protocols had been followed and we had been given enough time to gear up for the onslaught and restrict travel from infected areas. Unfortunately, “Face” governs Chinese responses and the WHO was far too slow to act meaning that many weeks were lost before the true scale became apparent. By the time we knew of the scale of the problem, long before Italy hit the headlines, it was here and spreading. 
 

The time for analysis will come when all data are available and when cool, independent heads can consider causes and responses well away from the hype,  hysteria and party political axe-grinding. 

despite the fact it will upset our resident experts that's a great post 

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I think todays numbers will be like every weekend do far 20-30% lower and the huge upswing Tuesday/Wednesday, particularly with the Bank holiday

 

The reporting of infection figures shouldn't be significantly affected by the weekends. It's the deaths figures that usually are.

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

He has arisen.

 

BJ has been discharged from hospital.

Surprise Surprise.

 

My good will has now gone.

[BlackJAC?]

Look at this and see how far down the list you are for a hospital bed when things get bad:

 

 

[Cade]

[OBE]

3 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

despite the fact it will upset our resident experts that's a great post 

 

[BlackJAC?]

32 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Isn’t hindsight a wonderful tool for predicting history.
 

The 2016 exercise was a Worst Case Exercise designed to inform decisions. I have been involved in more than a few of these and never was a plan or concept of operations put together that catered for such a worst case. Ultimately, all governments will take a balanced “Risk Management” position on probabilities together with opportunity cost of provision, be these military, natural disaster or health contingencies. 

 

The existing contingencies were carefully formed by analysis of previous pandemics (see the Hine Report on Swine Fever as an example) and were formed and adopted by all of the UK administrations, each responsible for their own health and care services.
 

It seems that very few countries have been able to cope with this pandemic. Why might that be?
 

Who knows if the existing plans might have proved effective if expected early-warning protocols had been followed and we had been given enough time to gear up for the onslaught and restrict travel from infected areas. Unfortunately, “Face” governs Chinese responses and the WHO was far too slow to act meaning that many weeks were lost before the true scale became apparent. By the time we knew of the scale of the problem, long before Italy hit the headlines, it was here and spreading. 
 

The time for analysis will come when all data are available and when cool, independent heads can consider causes and responses well away from the hype,  hysteria and party political axe-grinding. 

 

There's no "maybe" about it.  The maybes are there for everyone to see.  S Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan were all prepared.  They are fairing the best.  The West with their "it will never happen to us" mentality weren't.  Some could argue we are where we are through sheer arrogance.

 

Plenty of people were still scoffing when Italy were hit bad, some even continued when Spain were being pounded.  Now, we're expected to be the worst hit country in Europe for a reason.  That reason has nothing at all to do with maybe naws or hindsight, it's everything to do with very bad preparation even when it was obvious what was coming.

[Dawnrazor]

 

[vegas-voss]

Just now, BlackJAC? said:

 

There's no "maybe" about it.  The maybes are there for everyone to see.  S Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan were all prepared.  They are fairing the best.  The West with their "it will never happen to us" mentality weren't.  Some could argue we are where we are through sheer arrogance.

 

Plenty of people were still scoffing when Italy were hit bad, some even continued when Spain were being pounded.  Now, we're expected to be the worst hit country in Europe for a reason.  That reason has nothing at all to do with maybe naws or hindsight, it's everything to do with very bad preparation even when it was obvious what was coming.

I seen that Faucci with the help of Fox news trying to push him into saying that in early January WHO and China told them it was only passed from Animal to person but not person to person.Now I think it's Fox ( Republicans ) and not Faucci trying to angle that it's anybody to blame but the US for the response they had towards the virus.

 

I have no idea if this was first thought as only animal to person as I have not heard that until I watched Faucci today.

[AlimOzturk]

Chances of the lockdown being relaxed any time soon?

[vegas-voss]

Just now, AlimOzturk said:

Chances of the lockdown being relaxed any time soon?

No chance.

[The Internet]

11 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Chances of the lockdown being relaxed any time soon?

 

You must know the answer

[Cade]

15 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Chances of the lockdown being relaxed any time soon?

Ask again in May

[RobboM]

13 minutes ago, Cade said:

Ask again in May

[ri Alban]

The single biggest threat to man's continued dominance on the Planet is the virus.

 

 

[The Internet]

5 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

The single biggest threat to man's continued dominance on the Planet is the virus.

 

 

 

Climate change would like a word. 

[Unknown user]

4 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

H1N1 Swine Flu Coronavirus, which first arrived in 2009, is still in circulation and was the major contributor to the estimated 50,000* Flu-related deaths recorded in the US between Oct 2019 and Jan 2020. 50 kilodeaths that seemed entirely unremarkable at the time given the lack of media attention. 

 

*CDC data.

 

Yeah, with 330 million people going about their daily business as usual. If that was allowed with covid-19 we'd see carnage - look at Sweden's numbers (their bars and restaurants remain open) compared to it's neighbours who have locked down.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Smithee

[DETTY29]

1 hour ago, RobboM said:

Is it government advice now that recuperation can be done at your second home? or is Chequers his third home?

As he's PM, Chequers would probably be the best place to recuperate.

[DETTY29]

13 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

The single biggest threat to man's continued dominance on the Planet is the virus.

 

 

For the self acclaimed brightest species, stupidity is right up there.

 

Greed probably first. 

[OBE]

50 minutes ago, BlackJAC? said:

 

There's no "maybe" about it.  The maybes are there for everyone to see.  S Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan were all prepared.  They are fairing the best.  The West with their "it will never happen to us" mentality weren't.  Some could argue we are where we are through sheer arrogance.

 

Plenty of people were still scoffing when Italy were hit bad, some even continued when Spain were being pounded.  Now, we're expected to be the worst hit country in Europe for a reason.  That reason has nothing at all to do with maybe naws or hindsight, it's everything to do with very bad preparation even when it was obvious what was coming.

 

Asian countries who've previously fought Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes ought to have been best prepared.(stocked PPE & lockdown techniques)

 

How could the West have best prepared for a novel virus that has no vaccine or stabilising medicine?

 

If it was obvious to you what was coming, why didn't you share it?

 

Cue Adminlite...

 

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, vegas-voss said:

I seen that Faucci with the help of Fox news trying to push him into saying that in early January WHO and China told them it was only passed from Animal to person but not person to person.Now I think it's Fox ( Republicans ) and not Faucci trying to angle that it's anybody to blame but the US for the response they had towards the virus.

 

I have no idea if this was first thought as only animal to person as I have not heard that until I watched Faucci today.

 

Taiwan had warned the WHO on the 31 December that they had evidence of human to human transmission.

WHO ignored the warning and in Mid January only said that human to human transmission was potentially possible.

China only admitted human to human transmission on the 20 January, up until then they had denied that it could take place.

 

3 weeks, right at the very start were wasted, because the Chinese tried to bury this and hide the truth.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/03/25/2003733321

 

China has been praised for locking down Wuhan so quickly, part of that reason could very well be because they didn't want the truth to get out.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Jambo-Jimbo

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Taiwan had warned the WHO on the 31 December that they had evidence of human to human transmission.

WHO ignored the warning and in Mid January only said that human to human transmission was potentially possible.

China only admitted human to human transmission on the 20 January, up until then they had denied that it could take place.

 

3 weeks, right at the very start were wasted, because the Chinese tried to bury this and hide the truth.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/03/25/2003733321

 

This was all discussed on here the other day.

But people will still want to blame Trump and the Tories.

[The Internet]

14 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

But people will still want to blame Trump and the Tories.

 

China has shafted the lot of us big time, no doubt about that. Still fair to criticise the way its been handled here. 

[ri Alban]

21 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

But people will still want to blame Trump and the Tories.

What's China have to do with UK and US incompetence? 2 months from Jan 20 before they acted.

But some folk will vote for Trump or the Tories under any circumstances.

[Thunderstruck]

8 minutes ago, BlackJAC? said:

 

There's no "maybe" about it.  The maybes are there for everyone to see.  S Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan were all prepared.  They are fairing the best.  The West with their "it will never happen to us" mentality weren't.  Some could argue we are where we are through sheer arrogance.

 

Plenty of people were still scoffing when Italy were hit bad, some even continued when Spain were being pounded.  Now, we're expected to be the worst hit country in Europe for a reason.  That reason has nothing at all to do with maybe naws or hindsight, it's everything to do with very bad preparation even when it was obvious what was coming.

I have been to HK several times recently, they are on constant watch and have been since SARS and maybe before. If you are ever there, go to the Park on the Island and see the memorial to the medics who gave their lives to fight SARS; it is very moving. 

 

S. Korea has very good cause (on the other side of the DMZ) to have a very high state of preparedness and well-developed civil, medical and military contingencies. Similar for Taiwan. 
 

If Italy, Spain and other European countries had been given fair warning, who can say whether International travel restrictions would have minimised impact and allowed cocooning of the vulnerable to be implemented when it could have made a difference.
 

If China had admitted the problem in early December, the world might be a very different place today. I don’t know, you don’t know and we will need to wait for the independent review and for the data to be clarified. 

As for preparation, have you paused to wonder where hundreds, perhaps thousands, of high-tech beds and mattresses together with an array of ancillary equipment came from for the Project Nightingale hospitals or how a team was able to plan and construct these Field Hospitals in a matter of days. That’s why we have contingency planning and strategic stores.

 

There is no point focusing on shortcomings if successes aren’t applauded unless, of course, you are in the Media. 

 

 

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

What's China have to do with UK and US incompetence? 2 months from Jan 20 before they acted.

But some folk will vote for Trump or the Tories under any circumstances.

See!!

[Cade]

WHO had been warning the West about a possible pandemic since early January.

 

Our glorious leaders chose to ignore that advice.

 

And here we are.

[hughesie27]

No new figures?

[kila]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-donald-trump-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-trials-barts-royal-devon-a9461671.html

 

Quote

It is one of a number of drugs being tested in the UK’s Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 Therapy (Recovery) trial – the world’s largest randomised clinical trial of potential coronavirus treatments.

 

Recovery, which is being co-ordinated at Oxford University, signed up 1,000 patients from 132 different hospitals in its first 15 days and is now reported to have nearly 3,000 volunteers.

 

 

No shortage of folk willing to try out new treatments, hopefully some proven breakthrough soon

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

See!!

See feck all. This is all a response to your pish deflection. UK on it's way to 20,000 dead, while South Korea and German, well... I don't see them blaming any£&_# else for their predicament.

 

I was and am still pulling for the governments of the UK. But they fecked up.

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

See feck all. This is all a response to your pish deflection. UK on it's way to 20,000 dead, while South Korea and German, well... I don't see them blaming any£&_# else for their predicament.

 

I was and am still pulling for the governments of the UK. But they fecked up.

🤣 have a ****ing dring ye baloon and calm doon!!!

[DETTY29]

 

 

[Thunderstruck]

46 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Yeah, with 330 million people going about their daily business as usual. If that was allowed with covid-19 we'd see carnage - look at Sweden's numbers (their bars and restaurants remain open) compared to it's neighbours who have locked down.

 

 

The point I was making is that every flu season we see many thousands of deaths in most countries and it only merits a passing mention in the media.
 

We don’t know the real numbers of deaths where Covid-19 is the cause of death rather than simply being present when some other ailment kills a patient. Covid-19 is a notifiable disease so it’s presence will merit inclusion as a “with Covid-19” statistic. The small print in the chart you posted hints at that. 
 

We will better be able to judge when we are able to see the trajectory of causes of death from such as Pneumonia, TB, etc. 
 

 

[BlackJAC?]

1 hour ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

 

Asian countries who've previously fought Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes ought to have been best prepared.(stocked PPE & lockdown techniques)

 

How could the West have best prepared for a novel virus that has no vaccine or stabilising medicine?

 

If it was obvious to you what was coming, why didn't you share it?

 

Cue Adminlite...

 

 

 

 

Nice try but just read the first few pages of this very thread.  People were being called bed wetters, people using the now infamous "it's just flu" retort etc etc because they were reading others stating it was going to be bad. Folk being mocked because they were warning people.  This very thread is a good representation of what it was like.  Folk can claim they were caught unawares, but they really weren't.  If randoms like us were spouting it, I highly suspect those who have dedicated the best part of their working life to monitoring these very things were also warning what was gonna happen. 

 

Now people have changed tact "But no one knew.  NO ONE!!!"  If you think you needed a crystal ball to see the shitstorm that was coming, then I dunno what to say to you.  You win I suppose.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by BlackJAC?

[Ray Gin]

 

30 minutes ago, Cade said:

WHO had been warning the West about a possible pandemic since early January.

 

Our glorious leaders chose to ignore that advice.

 

And here we are.

 

Obama invested $200 million in a pandemic project designed to give early warning of potential pandemics. 

 

Guess what Trump did when he got in? 

[Thunderstruck]

31 minutes ago, Cade said:

WHO had been warning the West about a possible pandemic since early January.

 

Our glorious leaders chose to ignore that advice.

 

And here we are.

This is WHO update from the 12th of January. The 3rd paragraph (copied below) hardly exudes urgency. By that time the virus was well beyond the borders of China. 
 

https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/

[The Internet]

33 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

No new figures?

 

737 UK deaths. Maybe. I don't know what the reporting method is anymore.

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

 

Guess what Trump did when he got in? 

Grabbed it by the pussy?

[The Mighty Thor]

45 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

 

 

She's a smart cookie. 

Some countries talked about herd immunity 🤔

Tens of thousands dying 🤔

 

No idea who she could be talking about. 

[Jeff]

17 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

She's a smart cookie. 

Some countries talked about herd immunity 🤔

Tens of thousands dying 🤔

 

No idea who she could be talking about. 

 

She seems like a very impressive women. Thought she handled the Christchurch terror attacks very well

[Greedy Jambo]

I feel sorry for the folk that lick their fingers before turning a page. 

Ok, i don't, i told them that they're all minging arse holes years ago.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Space Pirate

[DETTY29]

I just went to watch a YouTube video and an Optrex  ad popped up.

 

We just get out of flu season and now into hay fever one and you need to wash your hands if you touch anything before touching you mouth, nose, eyes.

 

Keep safe folks and follow the guidelines.

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by DETTY29

[ArcticJambo]

that will be a nightmare, almost impossible to do for those that get it bad. 

[DETTY29]

23 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

I just went to watch a YouTube video and an Optrex  ad popped up.

 

We just get out of flu season and now into hay fever one and you need to wash your hands if you touch anything before touching you mouth, nose, eyes.

 

Keep safe folks and follow the guidelines.

 

 

 

Of course, not that corona is a flu virus.

[JKBMod 12]

There's a seperate thread on Covid Conspiracy or the likes, please post there if that's the aspect you're looking to discuss. 

 

Cheers 

 

Mod 12 

[Sharpie]

just caught the end of a news item that new cases in China with some deaths reported. 108 new cases 2 deaths.

[corkie64]

11 minutes ago, bobsharp said:

just caught the end of a news item that new cases in China with some deaths reported. 108 new cases 2 deaths.

Bob, if suggested to you that the Westminster Gov't were attempting through their own actions and via BBC and other Gov't friendly media to pull the wool over the eyes of the population to encourage or cause a revolt of the masses and therefore bring about some kind of control/ martial law,  would I be just generally going doolally? 🤒 or have a legitimate right to be worried?

[ri Alban]

14 minutes ago, corkie64 said:

Bob, if suggested to you that the Westminster Gov't were attempting through their own actions and via BBC and other Gov't friendly media to pull the wool over the eyes of the population to encourage or cause a revolt of the masses and therefore bring about some kind of control/ martial law,  would I be just generally going doolally? 🤒 or have a legitimate right to be worried?

The language they use definitely. War, Battles, Frontline etc... etc... 

[Georgecowie]

7 hours ago, Cade said:

WHO had been warning the West about a possible pandemic since early January.

 

Our glorious leaders chose to ignore that advice.

 

And here we are.

I don't know, who had been warning the west about a possible pandemic since early January. I'm a very good driver. 

[corkie64]

9 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

The language they use definitely. War, Battles, Frontline etc... etc... 

Definitely going doolally or legitimately worried, ri Alban?