Indy Ref Part Deux

[jambo lodge]

With all due respect to him, he isn't in the cabinet and has no power within the party so until someone higher up in the SNP says something, I'll remain sceptical they've changed approach.

 

Fwiw, I agree with Curtice's take.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that Mr Braveheart ( Alyn Smith ) was speaking formally on behalf of the SNP. That's the way they give out news. You never ever see Nicola on tv when there is bad news for the SNP. 

[deesidejambo]

This is my first venture into the debate so not sure how you can make that assertion!

 

Fair enough if you don't want to answer it. I'll ask someone who will.

 

 

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My bad. Replied to wrong post!

[Boris]

With that in mind, you would surely think that the SNP would be able to have a concrete enough economic plan in place to convince the many doubters that they would be no worse off.

 

I don't have a crystal ball so I've no idea but I do recognise that there would be short term "losses" in the event of independence.

 

However, given the effect Brexit will (or perhaps should say may) have on the UK economy now is as good a time as any for independnence.  This article written by an academic so respectable, but equally opinion (albeit researched opinion I suppose) is interesting.

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/brexit-makes-scottish-independence-much-more-economically-attractive 

[deesidejambo]

Or is it? What if she's banking on May blocking it? My guess is that would see a rise in yes voters!

 

What are the options if it does get blocked? Personally I think it could be the worst thing May could do.

 

 

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It gives both sides wriggle room.

 

May gets it off the table for a while and Nicola can use it as grievance.

 

Sort of win-win.

 

But I'd applaud May if she just says go for it and calls Nicolas bluff. I think the delay option gives both parties a chance to make real cases post Brexit though.

[Beast Boy]

Aye, they have a very low tax regime and have attracted many of the large multi-national companies to locate their headquarters there. Not the kind of policies to sit well with the left wing loons on here.

Yeah, they're delighted with their 50 quid GP appointments mate.

[AlphonseCapone]

With that in mind, you would surely think that the SNP would be able to have a concrete enough economic plan in place to convince the many doubters that they would be no worse off.

You have to imagine so. They have at least set up a review into their economic stratetgy and one of the recommendations of that was to count oil as a bonus, not a backbone of the economy. That's a huge difference to last time and common sense approach.

[Bazzas right boot]

For me the next referendum should force people between independence and no parliament. A clear vision. No in between. 2 answers. Scotland is an independent country or no parliament and we fall inline with the rest of the UK. This would ensure victory as enough soft no voters would be forced to vote yes as the comfort blanket of devolution has been removed.. Although it appears risky it isn't as questions will be raised about the Scottish parliaments future if we choose to remain in the UK, in all honesty we shouldn't be treated any different. Such a tactic , in poker would be classed as "all in". The last campaign failed. We need something that not only brings reward but also has clear consequences in defeat. The time has arrived. Scotland is a country or it is a region of the UK. no half way house. ebat

 

?This will also put an end to the debate for the foreseeable future.

 

?At the moment too many 90minute scots or soft no voters have the safety of devolution. This needs removed.

?We either wear the big boy pants and forge our own way or we shut up and fall in line.

 

?It sounds risky, but in all honesty if a second referendum for Independence fails, the Scottish parliament becomes a white elephant ( its powers/ effectiveness v cost must be questioned) and imo it is unfair if we vote to be part of the UK  but get benefits of what is effectively a federal system while the rest of the UK doesn't.

 

?If we use this strategy of not only hope but fear I would see a clear victory for yes probably 60% +.

[Rudolf's Mate]

It gives both sides wriggle room.

 

May gets it off the table for a while and Nicola can use it as grievance.

 

Sort of win-win.

 

But I'd applaud May if she just says go for it and calls Nicolas bluff. I think the delay option gives both parties a chance to make real cases post Brexit though.

Cheers [emoji1303]

 

 

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[AlphonseCapone]

There is no doubt in my mind that Mr Braveheart ( Alyn Smith ) was speaking formally on behalf of the SNP. That's the way they give out news. You never ever see Nicola on tv when there is bad news for the SNP.

Well I can't alter your mind but I'll remain sceptical. Tbf, her job isn't to go on tv when there is bad news, it's to go before parliament.

[Boris]

Interesting development.

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-demand-irish-unity-referendum-as-brexit-trigger-looms-35526466.html

 

Given the architects of this, I can imagine the responses, but the feeling is the same - equal partners views being dismissed out of hand.  

[AlphonseCapone]

For me the next referendum should force people between independence and no parliament. A clear vision. No in between. 2 answers. Scotland is an independent country or no parliament and we fall inline with the rest of the UK. This would ensure victory as enough soft no voters would be forced to vote yes as the comfort blanket of devolution has been removed.. Although it appears risky it isn't as questions will be raised about the Scottish parliaments future if we choose to remain in the UK, in all honesty we shouldn't be treated any different. Such a tactic , in poker would be classed as "all in". The last campaign failed. We need something that not only brings reward but also has clear consequences in defeat. The time has arrived. Scotland is a country or it is a region of the UK. no half way house. ebat

 

?This will also put an end to the debate for the foreseeable future.

 

?At the moment too many 90minute scots or soft no voters have the safety of devolution. This needs removed.

?We either wear the big boy pants and forge our own way or we shut up and fall in line.

 

?It sounds risky, but in all honesty if a second referendum for Independence fails, the Scottish parliament becomes a white elephant ( its powers/ effectiveness v cost must be questioned) and imo it is unfair if we vote to be part of the UK but get benefits of what is effectively a federal system while the rest of the UK doesn't.

 

?If we use this strategy of not only hope but fear I would see a clear victory for yes probably 60% +.

Can't agree. It's perfectly acceptable and valid to believe in the devolution arrangement without wanting full independence.

 

Though it can't be long until the F word gets raised.

[Beast Boy]

For me the next referendum should force people between independence and no parliament. A clear vision. No in between. 2 answers. Scotland is an independent country or no parliament and we fall inline with the rest of the UK. This would ensure victory as enough soft no voters would be forced to vote yes as the comfort blanket of devolution has been removed.. Although it appears risky it isn't as questions will be raised about the Scottish parliaments future if we choose to remain in the UK, in all honesty we shouldn't be treated any different. Such a tactic , in poker would be classed as "all in". The last campaign failed. We need something that not only brings reward but also has clear consequences in defeat. The time has arrived. Scotland is a country or it is a region of the UK. no half way house. ebat

 

?This will also put an end to the debate for the foreseeable future.

 

?At the moment too many 90minute scots or soft no voters have the safety of devolution. This needs removed.

?We either wear the big boy pants and forge our own way or we shut up and fall in line.

 

?It sounds risky, but in all honesty if a second referendum for Independence fails, the Scottish parliament becomes a white elephant ( its powers/ effectiveness v cost must be questioned) and imo it is unfair if we vote to be part of the UK but get benefits of what is effectively a federal system while the rest of the UK doesn't.

 

?If we use this strategy of not only hope but fear I would see a clear victory for yes probably 60% +.

Jesus Christ! No thanks mate. The Tories are already looking to roll back devolution. **** that for a game of soldiers. I was born in 79 when we held a referendum on a Scottish parliament and we didn't win by enough of a margin to swing it. I was 18 before we finally got it. It was hard fought over and a lot of people would tell you that the EU played a big part in forcing it through.

 

I am not willing to gamble with our parliament. I remember the eighties and having no protection whatsoever from a Tory government who we never voted for.

[jambo lodge]

Well I can't alter your mind but I'll remain sceptical. Tbf, her job isn't to go on tv when there is bad news, it's to go before parliament.

 

The selfie queen only does good news stories.

[AlphonseCapone]

The selfie queen only does good news stories.

You seem quite bitter mate. It's only politics.

[Nookie Bear]

Interesting development.

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-demand-irish-unity-referendum-as-brexit-trigger-looms-35526466.html

 

Given the architects of this, I can imagine the responses, but the feeling is the same - equal partners views being dismissed out of hand.

Good to see the SNP have political allies in Ireland.

[jambo lodge]

You seem quite bitter mate. It's only politics.

 

Not really but cant stand the falseness of it all. Lets have a clear debate with both sides being reasonably honest. Holyrood's own magazine today revealing that the SNP's own economic guru has predicted up to 10 years of no growth in Scotland's economy.............that equals ten years of even more austerity should independence happen. 

[Doogz]

For me the next referendum should force people between independence and no parliament. A clear vision. No in between. 2 answers. Scotland is an independent country or no parliament and we fall inline with the rest of the UK. This would ensure victory as enough soft no voters would be forced to vote yes as the comfort blanket of devolution has been removed.. Although it appears risky it isn't as questions will be raised about the Scottish parliaments future if we choose to remain in the UK, in all honesty we shouldn't be treated any different. Such a tactic , in poker would be classed as "all in". The last campaign failed. We need something that not only brings reward but also has clear consequences in defeat. The time has arrived. Scotland is a country or it is a region of the UK. no half way house. ebat

 

?This will also put an end to the debate for the foreseeable future.

 

?At the moment too many 90minute scots or soft no voters have the safety of devolution. This needs removed.

?We either wear the big boy pants and forge our own way or we shut up and fall in line.

 

?It sounds risky, but in all honesty if a second referendum for Independence fails, the Scottish parliament becomes a white elephant ( its powers/ effectiveness v cost must be questioned) and imo it is unfair if we vote to be part of the UK  but get benefits of what is effectively a federal system while the rest of the UK doesn't.

 

?If we use this strategy of not only hope but fear I would see a clear victory for yes probably 60% +.

 

How about you just try and convince voters of the positive impact of independence rather than forcing them to vote the way you want ?

[jambo lodge]

Jesus Christ! No thanks mate. The Tories are already looking to roll back devolution. **** that for a game of soldiers. I was born in 79 when we held a referendum on a Scottish parliament and we didn't win by enough of a margin to swing it. I was 18 before we finally got it. It was hard fought over and a lot of people would tell you that the EU played a big part in forcing it through.

 

I am not willing to gamble with our parliament. I remember the eighties and having no protection whatsoever from a Tory government who we never voted for.

 

Ian Murray MP specifically asked the question of Theresa May yesterday about plans to take back powers from Holyrood. She confirmed that no powers would be taken back and the likeliehood was that further powers would be devoled post Bexit.............so who is telling porkies. 

[Bazzas right boot]

Jesus Christ! No thanks mate. The Tories are already looking to roll back devolution. **** that for a game of soldiers. I was born in 79 when we held a referendum on a Scottish parliament and we didn't win by enough of a margin to swing it. I was 18 before we finally got it. It was hard fought over and a lot of people would tell you that the EU played a big part in forcing it through.

 

I am not willing to gamble with our parliament. I remember the eighties and having no protection whatsoever from a Tory government who we never voted for.

Honestly its not a gamble, if a second referendum fails questions will be asked.

 

Even myself a hard yes voter would question the cost of something that effectively has been voted against by the majority of the country.

 

I question the house of lords and the monarchy, it would be hypocritical not to question a parliament ( all the costs msps, etc) for a region of a country that has voted against its own independence twice in 6 years.

 

We won't win fighting the same battle, even if we do it will be a brexit type result, is that enough?

 

IMO, a change of tact is required, and although it appears risky if we vote no and get another ten years of a Torie majority, the use of a parliament and the  fairness of it will be questioned, no doubt about it.

 

The SNP will also have to change policy and in all honesty concentrate on building ties with Labour and Lib dems to have  any power in Westminster not Edinburgh.

 

If you think it will remain untouched or increase in power you are being very na?ve.

 

 

only around 10-20% of scots are hardliners, the rest were either pro indy or pro devolution.

[Adam Murray]

I don't have a crystal ball so I've no idea but I do recognise that there would be short term "losses" in the event of independence.

 

However, given the effect Brexit will (or perhaps should say may) have on the UK economy now is as good a time as any for independnence.  This article written by an academic so respectable, but equally opinion (albeit researched opinion I suppose) is interesting.

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/brexit-makes-scottish-independence-much-more-economically-attractive 

 

 

Page not found with that link Boris

[Adam Murray]

Interesting development.

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-demand-irish-unity-referendum-as-brexit-trigger-looms-35526466.html

 

Given the architects of this, I can imagine the responses, but the feeling is the same - equal partners views being dismissed out of hand.  

 

 

Nationalism/Republicanism, is there really that much difference?

[Bazzas right boot]

How about you just try and convince voters of the positive impact of independence rather than forcing them to vote the way you want ?

 

 

 

Because it doesn't work.

 

Fear wins

 

Time to play the game and try to win. Its what its all  about and what everyone else does.

 

Based on the shit the no side said last time, that is also a rich statement.

[AlphonseCapone]

Nationalism/Republicanism, is there really that much difference?

Of course. One is about country and the other about monarchy.

[Adam Murray]

Of course. One is about country and the other about monarchy.

 

Maybe I should have stated in NI, as that is where the link is from.

[deesidejambo]

Of course. One is about country and the other about monarchy.

Do you think that Republicans vote No in the same ratio as Royalists?

[Bazzas right boot]

Ian Murray MP specifically asked the question of Theresa May yesterday about plans to take back powers from Holyrood. She confirmed that no powers would be taken back and the likeliehood was that further powers would be devoled post Bexit.............so who is telling porkies. 

 

Aye, they never lie.

 

Fool me once- fool you, fool me twice fool me!

 

No one will believe this, they lied about brexit, they lied in the last referendum.

[Doogz]

Because it doesn't work.

 

Fear wins

 

Time to play the game and try to win. Its what its all  about and what everyone else does.

 

Based on the shit the no side said last time, that is also a rich statement.

 

Then make a better argument - don't try to force people to vote your way because you can't convince them.

[Boris]

Page not found with that link Boris

 

I'll try again, apologies.

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/brexit-makes-scottish-independence-much-more-economically-attractive

[AlphonseCapone]

Do you think that Republicans vote No in the same ratio as Royalists?

Doubt it. Same as no groupings you compare vote in the same way; young v old, male v female, rich v poor. But that doesn't mean it's a clean split in any grouping.

[deesidejambo]

Doubt it. Same as no groupings you compare vote in the same way; young v old, male v female, rich v poor. But that doesn't mean it's a clean split in any grouping.

Agreed there is a link but I see it as strong. A poll of the fans from the Celtic Sevco game would be interesting

[Sraman]

Yes. The issue on oil is not the price, which is determined by the global market, but the amount. Eck said there are 24 billion barrels of reserves left. At current rates the real number is around 5 billion, 10 billion absolute tops.

 

So Eck was simply lying, hence SNP now dropping oil revenues from future economic calcs.

 

I read your earlier post on this with interest. Those aren't published figures, those figures are your own projections based on your own workings. You say it's 10 billion tops I say it's 12 billion, that way both you and Eck are correct with your figures (given you have very generously allowed yourself 100% margin for error).

 

Anyway, after pointing that out, using your figures, it is clear to see that there simply isn't enough oil left to prop up a failing post Brexit UK economy. Makes sense to go it alone and keep what little revenue gains are left.

[Boris]

Nationalism/Republicanism, is there really that much difference?

 

In a N Irish context, no not really.

 

Interesting though that there is now no longer a Unionist majority at Stormont.

 

This article was quite interesting regards May's apparent intransigence to rUK

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/03/england-big-loser-brexit-170312092648577.html

[maroonlegions]

Manners maketh man, a few on here could well be advised to remember that.

 

 

 

So "if" and thats a big "IF"... the people of Scotland vote for independence, will all the far right neo cons and left wingers emigrate to Engerland.

 

And if Scotland gets the right to remain in the European Union  after it gains independence will that not in its self attract a lot of companies   to Scotland who want to trade in the EU, thus bring in a lot of revenue.

[Bazzas right boot]

Then make a better argument - don't try to force people to vote your way because you can't convince them.

 

Its not forcing, its two clear choices.

 

The argument will be there, the fact is  humans don't like change.

 

the third option of devolution is effectively a 3 in a likert scale, to get a real answer, you need to remove the 3.

 

I also think that devolution is unfair on the other parts of  the UK if we vote to remain in the UK, why should we have special powers, I also think the costs of maintaining a puppet parliament could be better used elsewhere if we are still answerable to Westminster.

 

In effect we are removing the 3.

 

Every unionist I say this to, has a look of fear in their face, when I mention this, this alone tells me this is the way to go.

 

The SNP need to wise up, play the game that everyone else plays.

 

Play to win, not to be nice and reasonable as Trump and Farrage shows this doesn't not win, strategy, aggressiveness and fear win.

[maroonlegions]

Aye, they never lie.

 

Fool me once- fool you, fool me twice fool me!

 

No one will believe this, they lied about brexit, they lied in the last referendum.

 And have they not just recently broken two of their pre- election manifesto promises.

 

They really do view us as all  as just zipped up the back..

[Adam Murray]

I'll try again, apologies.

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/brexit-makes-scottish-independence-much-more-economically-attractive

 

 

Cheers, decent article and the guy certainly knows his stuff, and has a cv to back it up.

 

There just seems to be too much uncertainty at the moment though, be it through Brexit or an Independent Scotland, too much what if's and maybe's, lots of guess work and speculation.

 

We need to start dealing in facts, and each side not countering the other with more lies or scaremongering.

 

Regarding Indy2 though, in my opinion, if the SNP can come up with a sound and viable economic strategy that will convince people they will be no worse off than they are now, not any false promises of ?600 per person better off, or ?5000 per family, as per Indy1, then they will have a chance.

 

They may also have to pull a rabbit out the hat regarding EU entry, or single market access at least, as that is what has set this particular set of events in motion. Maybe all these trips to Europe have paid dividends and the SNP have something up their sleeve, the cynic in me tells me though that if they had any news regarding that, they would be shouting it from the rooftops already.

[Stuart Lyon]

There's the rub for the SNP coming up with a sound economic policy and gaining entry to the EU - oh wait a minute is it EFTA they want into now that the entry to the EU is looking problematic.

 

Project Realism will prevail - vote NO!

[Adam Murray]

In a N Irish context, no not really.

 

Interesting though that there is now no longer a Unionist majority at Stormont.

 

This article was quite interesting regards May's apparent intransigence to rUK

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/03/england-big-loser-brexit-170312092648577.html

 

Surely being classed as a Republican in NI is completely different from being a Republican in Scotland or England?

[AlphonseCapone]

Agreed there is a link but I see it as strong. A poll of the fans from the Celtic Sevco game would be interesting

If I remember right, the only football forum poll from last time where No was majority was a Rangers one.

[Doogz]

For me the next referendum should force people between independence and no parliament. A clear vision. No in between. 2 answers. Scotland is an independent country or no parliament and we fall inline with the rest of the UK. This would ensure victory as enough soft no voters would be forced to vote yes as the comfort blanket of devolution has been removed.. Although it appears risky it isn't as questions will be raised about the Scottish parliaments future if we choose to remain in the UK, in all honesty we shouldn't be treated any different. Such a tactic , in poker would be classed as "all in". The last campaign failed. We need something that not only brings reward but also has clear consequences in defeat. The time has arrived. Scotland is a country or it is a region of the UK. no half way house. ebat

 

?This will also put an end to the debate for the foreseeable future.

 

?At the moment too many 90minute scots or soft no voters have the safety of devolution. This needs removed.

?We either wear the big boy pants and forge our own way or we shut up and fall in line.

 

?It sounds risky, but in all honesty if a second referendum for Independence fails, the Scottish parliament becomes a white elephant ( its powers/ effectiveness v cost must be questioned) and imo it is unfair if we vote to be part of the UK  but get benefits of what is effectively a federal system while the rest of the UK doesn't.

 

?If we use this strategy of not only hope but fear I would see a clear victory for yes probably 60% +.

 

 

Its not forcing, its two clear choices.

 

Force is the word you used twice in your original post. Referendum questions need to be a clear 2 choices - in the UK or out, in the EU or out.

74% of Scots voted in favour of devolution in 1997

55% of Scots voted in favour of staying in the UK in 2014

You seem determined to force people to choose another option from the ones they've selected in the past - do it by arguing the case for it not rigging the question.

[deesidejambo]

If I remember right, the only football forum poll from last time where No was majority was a Rangers one.

Thereby proving the link!

[AlphonseCapone]

Thereby proving the link!

I don't doubt the link but it's just one of many a complicated facets and there are many exceptions.

[Boris]

Maybe I should have stated in NI, as that is where the link is from.

 

 

Surely being classed as a Republican in NI is completely different from being a Republican in Scotland or England?

 

Sorry, I thought you were referring to a N Ireland context going by your previous post i.e. nationalist and republican being in a lot of cases interchangeable terms.

 

But yes, the term Republican has different connotations in Ireland, in England, in Scotland....in the USA!

[deesidejambo]

I don't doubt the link but it's just one of many a complicated facets and there are many exceptions.

One demographic that irks me is the geographic one which comes as a result of the others you list. Glasgow/Dundee vs Aberdeen/Embra for example.

 

If geography was in its favour then partition would be an option

[GBJambo]

So the Snp are calling for a second referendum on independence because they think we want to stay in EU but now they are saying we won't stay in the EU.So no need for the referendum now, right?

What is this material change then?

[Bazzas right boot]

Force is the word you used twice in your original post. Referendum questions need to be a clear 2 choices - in the UK or out, in the EU or out.

74% of Scots voted in favour of devolution in 1997

55% of Scots voted in favour of staying in the UK in 2014

You seem determined to force people to choose another option from the ones they've selected in the past - do it by arguing the case for it not rigging the question.

 

Ive used force, however there are two options, no one would be forced to vote one way. Every poll/ referendum forces choices. The choices would be the same, just the consequences would be different

 

In fact I believe David Cameron forced a third option of more devolution powers to be removed last time.

 

It would clearly be a political tactic, however one that I believe should be explored, there is nothing wrong with either being independent or part of the UK in its entirety?

 

I'm on the YES side and they should be looking to win, if this is a viable option then it should be used, I don't really care if pro union folk feel it is unfair as it may persuade some soft voters to vote yes. That is the point. Surely the pro union side can persuade such voters to vote No?

 

Just as you said the yes side should get a convincing argument, It would be up to the pro union side to forge a convincing argument that remain part of the UK without devolution is the best option. Surely that must be easy if you feel being part of the union is correct?

 

Devolution should be removed, imo  as it is unfair that we have it as part of the UK and other do not, its also ensures that the independence debate drags on when there are other things to be discussed and solved.

 

If Westminster is the government of the UK and we vote for that to be the case and to remain it , then I believe resources should be used there, not in Edinburgh I don't want my taxes paying for two parliaments any more than the Royal households tbh.

 

Its all about winning, all tools should be used. both sides will do this.

[maroonlegions]

There's the rub for the SNP coming up with a sound economic policy and gaining entry to the EU - oh wait a minute is it EFTA they want into now that the entry to the EU is looking problematic.

 

Project Realism will prevail - vote NO!

 

 

[Boris]

So the Snp are calling for a second referendum on independence because they think we want to stay in EU but now they are saying we won't stay in the EU.So no need for the referendum now, right?

What is this material change then?

 

I think it's the single market that's the important bit.

[HaymarketJambo]

There's the rub for the SNP coming up with a sound economic policy and gaining entry to the EU - oh wait a minute is it EFTA they want into now that the entry to the EU is looking problematic.

 

Project Realism will prevail - vote NO!

 

I would like to see a indy Scotland in EFTA better than the EU or staying part of the UK, sorry Stuart.   

 

I will be voting YES.    

[Doogz]

I'm on the YES side and they should be looking to win, if this is a viable option then it should be used, I don't really care if pro union folk feel it is unfair as it may persuade some soft voters to vote yes. That is the point. Surely the pro union side can persuade such voters to vote No?

 

Just as you said the yes side should get a convincing argument, It would be up to the pro union side to forge a convincing argument that remain part of the UK without devolution is the best option. Surely that must be easy if you feel being part of the union is correct?

 

But you're forcing (sorry - there's that word again)  the Pro-union side to argue a case they may not believe in - their position may be that they are happy for there to be devolved parliaments why should they argue for this to change ?