Indy Ref Part Deux

[JamboX2]

Petitions and peaceful protest have never achieved anything.

 

So, gid luck with that.

Suffragist movement? Equal rights for LGBT community? Establishment of the welfare state? Equal rights for women?

[JamboX2]

Yeah, because woman got the right to vote through peaceful protests right enough.

 

They did. That and after a war forced attitudes to women in general to change due to the need to move a huge mass of women into the work place.

 

The suffrage movement was by in large a peaceful one.

 

I could add the end of communism across eastern europe, the extension of the electoral franchise across the UK in the 19th century, abolitionist movement, tge Scottish independence movement (from nothing much in 1997 to two referendums in 5 years), the devolution movement, equal rights for women, equal rights for the LGBT community, Civil Rights in America... many more.

[AlphonseCapone]

Not seen the poll like you but if Yes is indeed at 43% then it's not far from the 45% limit you quote. If it had Yes at 52% you would be creaming over that despite it being just as much outside your range the other way.

 

Poll outliers happen though so tomorrow will tell.

 

What should be of more worry to you is the Ipsos poll from a few weeks ago that put the firm No vote at 38% and the firm Yes only at 28%. That gives Yes a mountain to climb to capture at least 60% of the undecideds.

I wouldn't be creaming myself over anything, not sure why you think I'd suddenly become stupid because a poll reverses. I deal with statistics every day of my life so I'd treat that with the same level of scepticism I treat all polls, interesting but ultimately irrelevant.

 

Why should that worry me? I always figures No voters were more entrenched and less willing to listen :s That's a joke btw, before folk start greeting.

[AlphonseCapone]

Interestingly there's one of those online petitions already nearly at 100,000 signatures against another referendum.

 

 

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It's not interesting. There was significantly more trying to stop trump getting a state visit.

 

Also, how is their no mandate for it? It was in their manifesto and they won the election, pretty basic.

[luckydug]

Interesting betting odds from a major bookmaker.

Scotland to vote for Independence before 2024 is a 4/6 shot.

 

I would hate to think that this is all going to rumble on until then.

It could be that these odds are influenced by surveys saying that young people are 72% in favour of Independence.

Perhaps thinking if a few of the oldies pop off before then it will tip the balance.

Before anyone starts about wishing folk dead or any nonsense like that I myself am an oldie.My remarks are purely factual.

[deesidejambo]

Interesting betting odds from a major bookmaker.

Scotland to vote for Independence before 2024 is a 4/6 shot.

 

I would hate to think that this is all going to rumble on until then.

It could be that these odds are influenced by surveys saying that young people are 72% in favour of Independence.

Perhaps thinking if a few of the oldies pop off before then it will tip the balance.

Before anyone starts about wishing folk dead or any nonsense like that I myself am an oldie.My remarks are purely factual.

This is a classic way for bookies to take numpties money now and they may not need to pay out until 2024 if at all.

 

What is more relevant are the odds for Indy in the next few years. That won't be 4/6

[deesidejambo]

I wouldn't be creaming myself over anything, not sure why you think I'd suddenly become stupid because a poll reverses. I deal with statistics every day of my life so I'd treat that with the same level of scepticism I treat all polls, interesting but ultimately irrelevant.

 

Why should that worry me? I always figures No voters were more entrenched and less willing to listen :s That's a joke btw, before folk start greeting.

Actually I don't think it's a joke it's true. There are more No voters entrenched than Yes, I'd expect for heart rather than head reasons and of course the older generation tend to be fixed in their views.

 

The point is that this 10% lead means the SNP need a major shift in the Undecideds towards Yes

[deesidejambo]

Interesting betting odds from a major bookmaker.

Scotland to vote for Independence before 2024 is a 4/6 shot.

 

I would hate to think that this is all going to rumble on until then.

It could be that these odds are influenced by surveys saying that young people are 72% in favour of Independence.

Perhaps thinking if a few of the oldies pop off before then it will tip the balance.

Before anyone starts about wishing folk dead or any nonsense like that I myself am an oldie.My remarks are purely factual.

On oldies - yes they die but they are replaced by increasing numbers of more oldies where stuff like pension security etc play increasing roles.

 

Or maybe they just become dosset Tories with age.

[Stuart Lyon]

For Project Fear read Project Realism!

[Taffin]

Apologies if the thread has moved on or if this is a stupid question.

 

Could we keep the oil and just use it ourselves reducing reliance on importing it?

[AlphonseCapone]

Actually I don't think it's a joke it's true. There are more No voters entrenched than Yes, I'd expect for heart rather than head reasons and of course the older generation tend to be fixed in their views.

 

The point is that this 10% lead means the SNP need a major shift in the Undecideds towards Yes

It gets said a lot and often in not very nice terms but it's true to say that the vast majority of that 38% are in the older category. Independence is inevitable imo when you look at the age breakdowns of support for and against.

 

I just think people born after a certain point don't really get what Britain is or is meant to mean, including myself. If you are older then I do get the emotional attachment and entrenchment. But to younger people, it's an institution that means not a lot.

[deesidejambo]

Apologies if the thread has moved on or if this is a stupid question.

 

Could we keep the oil and just use it ourselves reducing reliance on importing it?

Yes. The issue on oil is not the price, which is determined by the global market, but the amount. Eck said there are 24 billion barrels of reserves left. At current rates the real number is around 5 billion, 10 billion absolute tops.

 

So Eck was simply lying, hence SNP now dropping oil revenues from future economic calcs.

[Stuart Lyon]

Eck lying - well I never!

[deesidejambo]

It gets said a lot and often in not very nice terms but it's true to say that the vast majority of that 38% are in the older category. Independence is inevitable imo when you look at the age breakdowns of support for and against.

 

I just think people born after a certain point don't really get what Britain is or is meant to mean, including myself. If you are older then I do get the emotional attachment and entrenchment. But to younger people, it's an institution that means not a lot.

There we agree. But all the more reason for Nicola to wait until that demographic works in her favour. Going after it now is imo silly from a Nat perspective

[AlphonseCapone]

There we agree. But all the more reason for Nicola to wait until that demographic works in her favour. Going after it now is imo silly from a Nat perspective

I don't disagree. I said right at the start of all this I'm unsure why they are taking a massive gamble now when it's too close to call and they'd be taking it off the table for a long time.

[Space Mackerel]

Yes. The issue on oil is not the price, which is determined by the global market, but the amount. Eck said there are 24 billion barrels of reserves left. At current rates the real number is around 5 billion, 10 billion absolute tops.

 

So Eck was simply lying, hence SNP now dropping oil revenues from future economic calcs.

That is known reserves.

But you ignored my link from a previous post didn't you.

[jambo lodge]

So what's going today on with the SNP. Material change was that Scots voted to stay in the EU and these nasty Tories want to take the UK out. Now Ms Sturgeon and colleagues are suggesting they might not seek full EU membership.......you couldn't make it up. Opportunism at its worst. Also this morning their financial guru predicting 5-10 years of no growth whatsoever after independence. Utter shambles of a party that should concentrate on education, NHS, Police etc

[deesidejambo]

That is known reserves.

But you ignored my link from a previous post didn't you.

Nope. The fiscal projections should always be made on known reserves. There could be 100 billion barrels of oil underneath Paisley but it is stupid to factor in speculative volumes into an economic case.

 

Even the SNP won't do this. But you will.

[AlphonseCapone]

So what's going today on with the SNP. Material change was that Scots voted to stay in the EU and these nasty Tories want to take the UK out. Now Ms Sturgeon and colleagues are suggesting they might not seek full EU membership.......you couldn't make it up. Opportunism at its worst. Also this morning their financial guru predicting 5-10 years of no growth whatsoever after independence. Utter shambles of a party that should concentrate on education, NHS, Police etc

Got some quotes from Sturgeon and colleagues? Or have you taken this from a newspaper headline...

[Space Mackerel]

Nope. The fiscal projections should always be made on known reserves. There could be 100 billion barrels of oil underneath Paisley but it is stupid to factor in speculative volumes into an economic case.

 

Even the SNP won't do this. But you will.

There's something making no 10 desperate to hold on to this too wee too poor too stupid country, what is it?

[frankblack]

No, you said the SNP defeated the government, which it never has. That was the original point.

 

No it wasn't the original point.  You made the point that English Nationalists engineered the Brexit scenario.  My argument, backed with examples, shows the SNP interfering with English only matters at Westminster in order to get another referendum.  The SNP have achieved this, assuming TM lets them have it.

[eddiepolio]

It gets said a lot and often in not very nice terms but it's true to say that the vast majority of that 38% are in the older category. Independence is inevitable imo when you look at the age breakdowns of support for and against.

 

I just think people born after a certain point don't really get what Britain is or is meant to mean, including myself. If you are older then I do get the emotional attachment and entrenchment. But to younger people, it's an institution that means not a lot.

I think there will be a lot of No's like me who don't give a toss about Britain or the union and certainly in sporting events I would class myself as anti English.

 

I'm a No because the economics just don't add up and until the SNP can give some sort of credible evidence to the their numbers I'll stay a no. They can't go down the route that Alex Salmond took the last time where he was effectively saying just trust me it will be OK.

 

I'm proud of my country and if I had proof we would thrive I would vote Yes. Right now there is no proof and doubt there will be. I'm a single dad with a 5 year old wee boy and to be honest are things that bad? Not really. And if the Yes supporters could remove the emotion from their arguments could they really say there lives are that bad right now?

[deesidejambo]

I don't disagree. I said right at the start of all this I'm unsure why they are taking a massive gamble now when it's too close to call and they'd be taking it off the table for a long time.

I think Nicolas mistake was going too quick the day after the Brexit vote. She should have waited to see the overall reaction in Scotland.

 

But i think she was pressured into it. Eck?

 

Anyway I expect May to boot it out in which case we go back to a waiting game which may help Indy. But maybe she is also a gambler like Dave.

[AlphonseCapone]

I think there will be a lot of No's like me who don't give a toss about Britain or the union and certainly in sporting events I would class myself as anti English.

 

I'm a No because the economics just don't add up and until the SNP can give some sort of credible evidence to the their numbers I'll stay a no. They can't go down the route that Alex Salmond took the last time where he was effectively saying just trust me it will be OK.

 

I'm proud of my country and if I had proof we would thrive I would vote Yes. Right now there is no proof and doubt there will be. I'm a single dad with a 5 year old wee boy and to be honest are things that bad? Not really. And if the Yes supporters could remove the emotion from their arguments could they really say there lives are that bad right now?

I get that. My point was more in relation to those who are entrenched, the 38% who said they'd vote for the union regardless (same works for the 28% on the other side). Unlike you, they are unwilling to be swayed or listen to any arguments, mind is made up.

 

If you think the economic case doesn't add up and you are happy with how things are just now then fair enough, no one can criticise that. I agree 100% the economic argument, including currency, has to be completely nailed by the Yes side this time after the disaster of that side last time.

[jambo lodge]

Got some quotes from Sturgeon and colleagues? Or have you taken this from a newspaper headline...

 

Just listened to discussion on Radio Scotland with Alyn Smith MEP representing the SNP. Acknowledging the change of stance he said " if my granny had wheels she would potentially be a bike" These people are nutters. They have no clue what they want and just make it up as they go along. He also acknowledged the analysis of Prof John Curtice that support for the EU in Scotland was "soft" therefore they may change their policy towards Europe.. 

[1874robbo]

There's something making no 10 desperate to hold on to this too wee too poor too stupid country, what is it?

 

What do you think it is? List some things that you think it may be and try and convince some on the fence voters to shift to yes.

[AlphonseCapone]

I think Nicolas mistake was going too quick the day after the Brexit vote. She should have waited to see the overall reaction in Scotland.

 

But i think she was pressured into it. Eck?

 

Anyway I expect May to boot it out in which case we go back to a waiting game which may help Indy. But maybe she is also a gambler like Dave.

I'm not sure she is the type to be pressurised but then he is her mentor so that'll hold huge sway.

 

If May says no or you have to wait until after Brexit negotiations and those negotiations don't go well, then she has effectively ended the union at that point imo.

 

She might be looking at it and fancies her chances, possibly even putting in a clause that says this will be the last one for X years, that way she'll be the woman who left office saving the union once and for all. Quite the legacy compared to Cameron who is the man that has really ****ed the country up on several fronts.

[deesidejambo]

Just listened to discussion on Radio Scotland with Alyn Smith MEP representing the SNP. Acknowledging the change of stance he said " if my granny had wheels she would potentially be a bike" These people are nutters. They have no clue what they want and just make it up as they go along. He also acknowledged the analysis of Prof John Curtice that support for the EU in Scotland was "soft" therefore they may change their policy towards Europe..

Changing policy to Europe is a minefield but perhaps the only option. The problem is if rUK also follows the same course and goes for trade deals or EFTA then both end up in the same boat.

 

Maybe after all SNP and May have an option to work together after all!

[deesidejambo]

I'm not sure she is the type to be pressurised but then he is her mentor so that'll hold huge sway.

 

If May says no or you have to wait until after Brexit negotiations and those negotiations don't go well, then she has effectively ended the union at that point imo.

 

She might be looking at it and fancies her chances, possibly even putting in a clause that says this will be the last one for X years, that way she'll be the woman who left office saving the union once and for all. Quite the legacy compared to Cameron who is the man that has really ****ed the country up on several fronts.

Don't ever mention the C word. I want him kicked-in.

[AlphonseCapone]

Just listened to discussion on Radio Scotland with Alyn Smith MEP representing the SNP. Acknowledging the change of stance he said " if my granny had wheels she would potentially be a bike" These people are nutters. They have no clue what they want and just make it up as they go along. He also acknowledged the analysis of Prof John Curtice that support for the EU in Scotland was "soft" therefore they may change their policy towards Europe..

With all due respect to him, he isn't in the cabinet and has no power within the party so until someone higher up in the SNP says something, I'll remain sceptical they've changed approach.

 

Fwiw, I agree with Curtice's take.

[luckydug]

Got some quotes from Sturgeon and colleagues? Or have you taken this from a newspaper headline...

 

He has been reading the Torygraph.

[Armageddon]

Ireland has the fastest growing economy in the world, Dublin's property prices are rising at a frightening rate, the money being invested into that country is unbelievable.

 

We should be learning from them, they recovered something that was absolutely disastrous.

[jambos are go!]

To paraphrase Harold Wilson 48 hours is a long time in Scottish Politics.

[AlphonseCapone]

To paraphrase Harold Wilson 48 hours is a long time in Scottish Politics.

How so?

[deesidejambo]

Ireland has the fastest growing economy in the world, Dublin's property prices are rising at a frightening rate, the money being invested into that country is unbelievable.

 

We should be learning from them, they recovered something that was absolutely disastrous.

Doesn't stop their young professionals from leaving though.

[luckydug]

Ireland has the fastest growing economy in the world, Dublin's property prices are rising at a frightening rate, the money being invested into that country is unbelievable.

 

We should be learning from them, they recovered something that was absolutely disastrous.

 

Don't you know that the UK government is the only one that knows how to run an economy.

All those wee countries like Ireland, Iceland etc dont have a clue. Apart from the UK and any problems the UK has is all down to those horrible Europeans and bloody immigrants.

As for Scotland they are such a drain on the UK economy that they have to protected by the Union for their own good.

[AlphonseCapone]

Don't you know that the UK government is the only one that knows how to run an economy.

All those wee countries like Ireland, Iceland etc dont have a clue. Apart from the UK and any problems the UK has is all down to those horrible Europeans and bloody immigrants.

As for Scotland they are such a drain on the UK economy that they have to protected by the Union for their own good.

It is absolutely astonishing how folk can argue Scotland couldn't run its own affairs considering all the other countries similar to it that manage it no problem.

 

No doubt one of the resident expert economists on here, joiner by day, expert economist by night, will be along to tell us why we can't.

[Space Mackerel]

What do you think it is? List some things that you think it may be and try and convince some on the fence voters to shift to yes.

England has been an imperialist power since its inception and it still has this mindset to this very day. You only have to hear the rhetoric coming out about "Empire v2.0."

It wants to own, control the means of production for the benefit of its ruling class.

[Rudolf's Mate]

There we agree. But all the more reason for Nicola to wait until that demographic works in her favour. Going after it now is imo silly from a Nat perspective

Or is it? What if she's banking on May blocking it? My guess is that would see a rise in yes voters!

 

What are the options if it does get blocked? Personally I think it could be the worst thing May could do.

 

 

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[Beast Boy]

What do you think it is? List some things that you think it may be and try and convince some on the fence voters to shift to yes.

I'd be interested to know what you think it is too, actually. You are a staunch believer in remaining in the UK, and I respect that. Spacey asks a good question though. Why do you think the UK government wants to hold on to Scotland if we are so weak and poor?

[jack D and coke]

It is absolutely astonishing how folk can argue Scotland couldn't run its own affairs considering all the other countries similar to it that manage it no problem.

 

No doubt one of the resident expert economists on here, joiner by day, expert economist by night, will be along to tell us why we can't.

Tbh both sides are as bad.

I liken it to Hearts having their financial problems and every hibby on the planet knew the state of Hearts finances better than anyone at Hearts.

People like that dog food salesman or WOS are it too turning thousands into Facebook and Twitter economists.

Mind numbing.

[jambos are go!]

How so?

Because the SNP have gone from the front to the back foot.

[jambo lodge]

Ireland has the fastest growing economy in the world, Dublin's property prices are rising at a frightening rate, the money being invested into that country is unbelievable.

 

We should be learning from them, they recovered something that was absolutely disastrous.

 

Aye, they have a very low tax regime and have attracted many of the large multi-national companies to locate their headquarters there. Not the kind of policies to sit well with the left wing loons on here.    

[davie1980]

Depends how you look at it?

 

For Scotland to become an independent country should we expect at least 50% of those eligible to vote to want it? That seems fair. iMO for such important life changing referendums there should be some form on minimum turnout for the vote to become valid.

 

As for the lies the last time, if the yes campaign blame anyone but themselves for defeat then they are destined to fail again. Too many unanswer economic questions last time around, so if they want to win this time around they need to show they can answer questions on currency etc, especially with the possibility of the Euro handing over our head should we wish to rejoin the EU as an independent country.

Completely unrealistic and vitually unachievable

It would make a 50/50 question more like 98/2.

You know you would never acheive a turn out impressive enough to mean 50% of those eligible to vote voted Yes.

Even if you had the very impressive 85% turnout of the last referendum, you'd need around 60% of that turnout for Yes.

The No side knows this is close to impossible (if not entirely impossible) which is why this ridiculous idea is simply the brain child of a No campaigner trying to cheat their way to an easy win.

 

It's just like the Tories and their new trade union laws

[jambo lodge]

England has been an imperialist power since its inception and it still has this mindset to this very day. You only have to hear the rhetoric coming out about "Empire v2.0."

It wants to own, control the means of production for the benefit of its ruling class.

 

More racism today SP, you do surprise me." Empire v2"  what utter tosh you come up with. 

[AlphonseCapone]

Tbh both sides are as bad.

I liken it to Hearts having their financial problems and every hibby on the planet knew the state of Hearts finances better than anyone at Hearts.

People like that dog food salesman or WOS are it too turning thousands into Facebook and Twitter economists.

Mind numbing.

I agree. Check out the big Rangers thread on here as well.

 

Economists barely understand the economy.

[AlphonseCapone]

Because the SNP have gone from the front to the back foot.

They haven't really though have they? Unless you've got more to add?

[Adam Murray]

It is absolutely astonishing how folk can argue Scotland couldn't run its own affairs considering all the other countries similar to it that manage it no problem.

 

No doubt one of the resident expert economists on here, joiner by day, expert economist by night, will be along to tell us why we can't.

 

 

With that in mind, you would surely think that the SNP would be able to have a concrete enough economic plan in place to convince the many doubters that they would be no worse off.

[deesidejambo]

Or is it? What if she's banking on May blocking it? My guess is that would see a rise in yes voters!

 

What are the options if it does get blocked? Personally I think it could be the worst thing May could do.

 

 

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Been answered many times but you will ignore the answer anyway.

Oops sorry replied to wrong post

[Rudolf's Mate]

Been answered many times but you will ignore the answer anyway.

This is my first venture into the debate so not sure how you can make that assertion!

 

Fair enough if you don't want to answer it. I'll ask someone who will.

 

 

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