Russia Invades Ukraine

[ri Alban]

Spoiler

 

[il Duce McTarkin]

19 minutes ago, Sooks said:

You could argue that the rapid collapse of the Anglo-French forces in the west led to Russia getting involved sooner than they had planned so Britain doing so militarily poorly played as big a part in the formation of a strong enough allied force as any of our military victories

 

Stalins army was not ready for war when the Nazis pushed in to their territories as they were still feeling the after affects of the great purge when they were attacked and an air of paranoia persisted with regards the legacy of the red army and the influence of Trotsky 

 

Once winter set in the Soviets were able to regroup and unite properly under a common cause …………. ironically the same common cause as that which is driving the Ukrainians on to victories today 

 

Once the Soviets started pushing back they were a United force because they saw their cause as liberation 

 

We should never down play the role of any of the allies bs the axis powers in World War Two even if motives for involvement were not aligned for very long

 

By the time the US and Russia got involved we were all but spent but had we not resisted early on then the US in particular would probably never have got involved ……….. a certain future President by the name of Kennedy was vociferous in his opposition to the US getting involved in fact as he had no real love of England through his Irish heritage 

 

Stalin recognised that in the future Russia would end up pitted against the capitalist powers of the west but the here and now was more important to him at that point in time and there was a common enemy to deal with

 

 

So eh, WW2 was a team effort then.

 

 

[Sooks]

Just now, Dirk McClaymore said:

 

So eh, WW2 was a team effort then.

 

 

Yes absolutely it was 

 

I probably should not have quotes your post for most of what I put after the bit about the Anglo French defeats 

 

The rest was in reference to various points made by various posters

 

First post on the thread and had a lot to read 😄 

[Sooks]

Any way history aside I am glad I found this thread I because traditional media outlets have been pretty rubbish for finding out whats going on for me 

 

Does any one have any news sources where I can follow what’s happening with out having to hear about things like the Queen or court cases between footballers wives ect 

[Footballfirst]

5 minutes ago, Sooks said:

Any way history aside I am glad I found this thread I because traditional media outlets have been pretty rubbish for finding out whats going on for me 

 

Does any one have any news sources where I can follow what’s happening with out having to hear about things like the Queen or court cases between footballers wives ect 

If you are on Twitter then this link will give updates from a number of sources

 

https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753

[Sooks]

2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

If you are on Twitter then this link will give updates from a number of sources

 

https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753

Thank you Footballfirst

[BlueRiver]

First time since WWII whole Russian units have been lost according to at least one military expert. 
 

Reports still unclear on if somebody got the complete arse end of the stick and started shouting about Dunkirk at said expert though…

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, BlueRiver said:

First time since WWII whole Russian units have been lost according to at least one military expert. 
 

Reports still unclear on if somebody got the complete arse end of the stick and started shouting about Dunkirk at said expert though…

 

Russia now the main arms supplier after US to Ukraine.

[il Duce McTarkin]

30 minutes ago, Sooks said:

Yes absolutely it was 

 

I probably should not have quotes your post for most of what I put after the bit about the Anglo French defeats 

 

The rest was in reference to various points made by various posters

 

First post on the thread and had a lot to read 😄 

 

👍

 

[il Duce McTarkin]

12 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

First time since WWII whole Russian units have been lost according to at least one military expert. 

 

[Pap]

48 minutes ago, Sooks said:

Any way history aside I am glad I found this thread I because traditional media outlets have been pretty rubbish for finding out whats going on for me 

 

Does any one have any news sources where I can follow what’s happening with out having to hear about things like the Queen or court cases between footballers wives ect 

 

https://liveuamap.com/

[Pap]

I've been napping for a couple of hours and woke up to Ukraine liberating a other 4 towns/villages 😆

[Sooks]

2 minutes ago, Pap said:

 

https://liveuamap.com/

Thanks it is unnerving how much of a Luddite I have become with how I receive news 

[Dawnrazor]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/11/putin-finished-ukrainians-have-ropes-stunning-victory-sights/

[Pap]

6 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/11/putin-finished-ukrainians-have-ropes-stunning-victory-sights/

 

Since that article was published today, Ukraine have taken back at least 12 towns/villages.

 

Still though. There are some major battles still to come. Far from over. They wont be waltzing into Crimea. Think thats when Putin will declare war. 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Pap

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Pap said:

 

Since that article was published today, Ukraine have taken back at least 12 towns/villages.

 

They appear to have liberated the whole area to the north and north east of Kharkiv as far as the border. Phenomenal stuff.

[Pap]

5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

They appear to have liberated the whole area to the north and north east of Kharkiv as far as the border. Phenomenal stuff.

I accidentally missed a bit of that article.

 

"In fact, as this article was being written, reports are emerging that the Ukrainians have retaken Donetsk Airport, and are heading for the Black Sea coast—either Mariupol, or Melitopol. It is a quite stunning success."

 

If they go straight down to Mariupol that would be incredible. Proper shot of ardrenalin for the whole country. Hugely symbolic. Also completely cutting off the Russian army to the West. They wont be able to escape either as i doubt they'd risk bringing in ships to close to rescue them. I'm genuinely proud of these guys!

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Pap

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, Pap said:

I accidentally missed a bit of that article.

 

"In fact, as this article was being written, reports are emerging that the Ukrainians have retaken Donetsk Airport, and are heading for the Black Sea coast—either Mariupol, or Melitopol. It is a quite stunning success."

 

If they go straight down to Mariupol that would be incredible. Proper shot of ardrenalin for the whole country. Hugely symbolic. Also completely cutting off the Russian army to the West. They wont be able to escape either as i doubt they'd risk bringing in ships to close to rescue them. I'm genuinely proud of these guys!

 

They would retreat through Crimea, wouldn't they?

 

Yes, Donetsk Airport is a huge fillip, especially if it springboards onto Donetsk itself. The retaking of territory held by Russia since 2014 would be a gigantic step forward, and a massive blow to the Russians. It would hammer home the fact that its invasion could actually see it losing its previously-held territory in Ukraine, including Crimea.

 

Mariupol? That would be huge, but I would be flabbergasted if they can do that quickly.

 

There's a UAF-requested media blackout going on at the moment, so it will be interesting to see where else they are pressing that they're not telling us about officially. Focus could be back on Kherson or, as you say, Donetsk or Mariupol.

 

Probably best to keep up the push while Russian forces are in disarray, providing of course that the UAF have sufficient resources to see it through. Nice of the Russians to keep on donating them additional equipment though...

[Mikey1874]

Ukrainian forces have gone a different route than expected.

 

Mariupol might be last to be liberated partly as it holds the worst war crimes. 

[Pap]

7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

They would retreat through Crimea, wouldn't they?

 

Yes, Donetsk Airport is a huge fillip, especially if it springboards onto Donetsk itself. The retaking of territory held by Russia since 2014 would be a gigantic step forward, and a massive blow to the Russians. It would hammer home the fact that its invasion could actually see it losing its previously-held territory in Ukraine, including Crimea.

 

Mariupol? That would be huge, but I would be flabbergasted if they can do that quickly.

 

There's a UAF-requested media blackout going on at the moment, so it will be interesting to see where else they are pressing that they're not telling us about officially. Focus could be back on Kherson or, as you say, Donetsk or Mariupol.

 

Probably best to keep up the push while Russian forces are in disarray, providing of course that the UAF have sufficient resources to see it through. Nice of the Russians to keep on donating them additional equipment though...

 

Aye. Sorry. Got mixed up there

 

I'm dying to hear from Putin. There is literally nothing on Tass.

 

I noticed Lavrov is still at it in an article posted at 1:30pm today.

 

"The president told the meeting participants that we do not deny negotiations, but those who do should understand that the longer they postpone this process, the more difficult it will be for them to negotiate with us,"

 

 

 

 

[scott herbertson]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-ukrainian-military-in-izyum

 

Significant step forward

[redjambo]

8 minutes ago, Pap said:

 

Aye. Sorry. Got mixed up there

 

I'm dying to hear from Putin. There is literally nothing on Tass.

 

I noticed Lavrov is still at it in an article posted at 1:30pm today.

 

"The president told the meeting participants that we do not deny negotiations, but those who do should understand that the longer they postpone this process, the more difficult it will be for them to negotiate with us,"

 

 

And Ukraine's Minister of Defence has just tweeted that there will be no negotiations until Russia has withdrawn from the integrality of Ukrainian territory. If the Russians had come to an agreement with Ukraine earlier on during the negotiations on the Belarusian border, they might well have been able to pull out their troops and retain the territory held since 2014. Too late now.

 

[Mikey1874]

Russia and Putin still conducting a 'special operation'. 

 

I don't think that will change. The tricky bit might be how Ukraine offers Russia a way out if it continues this week's momentum. 

[Mikey1874]

10 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

And Ukraine's Minister of Defence has just tweeted that there will be no negotiations until Russia has withdrawn from the integrality of Ukrainian territory. If the Russians had come to an agreement with Ukraine earlier on during the negotiations on the Belarusian border, they might well have been able to pull out their troops and retain the territory held since 2014. Too late now.

 

 

The chance of actual negotiations ended with the war crimes in March north of Kyiv - Bucha etc. And what has actually happened but not yet confirmed in Mariupol will make any joint work on an agreement impossible. 

 

Again Ukraine might feel it's in its interest to offer Russia a way out. That might include what Zelensky was talking about in February/ early March of some form of special status for Crimea and Dombas. 

[Cruyff]

If Ukraine take Luhask and Donetsk the whole reason for invading is over. 

[Mikey1874]

9 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

If Ukraine take Luhask and Donetsk the whole reason for invading is over. 

 

Indeed.

 

I think Ukraine will look to take Crimea first partly for psychological reasons. Crimea is actually closest to being Russian and delivers a severe blow to the whole project. And it potentially opens up the whole Black Sea and makes Mariupol vulnerable as well as continuing the key objective to protect Odesa. 

 

Dombas probably last and also gives some opportunity of a settlement to end the war.

[Dawnrazor]

Is there any point in Putin actually declaring war officially rather than carrying on the "special operation"?

 

[Footballfirst]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

Is there any point in Putin actually declaring war officially rather than carrying on the "special operation"?

 

It would allow him to mobilise the population of fighting age (conscription). However, he would still have the issue, in the short term, of untrained soldiers being sent to the front line.

[scott herbertson]

1 minute ago, Footballfirst said:

It would allow him to mobilise the population of fighting age (conscription). However, he would still have the issue, in the short term, of untrained soldiers being sent to the front line.

 

It would also be about as popular with the families and young people of Russia as a fart in a lift

[Pap]

5 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Indeed.

 

I think Ukraine will look to take Crimea first partly for psychological reasons. Crimea is actually closest to being Russian and delivers a severe blow to the whole project. And it potentially opens up the whole Black Sea and makes Mariupol vulnerable as well as continuing the key objective to protect Odesa. 

 

Dombas probably last and also gives some opportunity of a settlement to end the war.

 

Yeh. Sounds plausable.

 

I mentioned earlier how Putin would react to that. Given its "Russian" territory. A very important one. Could be his excuse to declare war. 

 

If Ukraine manage to get it back, they can just re-new the lease of the contract that Russia had at Sevastopol. Which was scheduled to expire in 2042. With some penalties of 6 months payments 

[il Duce McTarkin]

2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Is there any point in Putin actually declaring war officially rather than carrying on the "special operation"?

 

 

If Putin declares war and goes for full mobilisation, the issue with NATO effectively arming, training, and coordinating/providing intelligence to the Ukrainians becomes more of an issue. 

 

Continued reversals, or even a stalemate would put ICBMs back on the table, and even Putin doesn't want that.

[Cade]

 

All that blue in just a week

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

It would allow him to mobilise the population of fighting age (conscription). However, he would still have the issue, in the short term, of untrained soldiers being sent to the front line.

 

I think the problem now is already there are 50,000 dead. Ukraine is also ramping up its capability. Getting its reserves trained and the slow import of weapons.

 

Mobilisation might provide the numbers but the problems with leadership and logistics don't get any better. Could simply just lead to more Russian dead. 

 

It could push the opposition to war firstly from the families of dead soldiers over into danger mode. 

 

The main escalation would be use of the most powerful weapons. But that would be met by NATO delivering even more powerful weapons. 

[All roads lead to Gorgie]

7 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

It would allow him to mobilise the population of fighting age (conscription). However, he would still have the issue, in the short term, of untrained soldiers being sent to the front line.

It's doubtful that there would be enough weaponry left to equip a conscripted Russian military. 

[Pap]

Declaring war would simply put Putin's head on the chopping block.

 

They have said from day one, its all going to plan. Then to declare war. It would all unravel.

 

If he uses tactical nukes. Its over for him. China certainly would walk away for sure.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

4 minutes ago, Pap said:

Declaring war would simply put Putin's head on the chopping block.

 

They have said from day one, its all going to plan. Then to declare war. It would all unravel.

 

If he uses tactical nukes. Its over for him. China certainly would walk away for sure.

The west need to arm Ukraine to the teeth. Time to do massive damage to Russia

[Cruyff]

19 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Indeed.

 

I think Ukraine will look to take Crimea first partly for psychological reasons. Crimea is actually closest to being Russian and delivers a severe blow to the whole project. And it potentially opens up the whole Black Sea and makes Mariupol vulnerable as well as continuing the key objective to protect Odesa. 

 

Dombas probably last and also gives some opportunity of a settlement to end the war.

Ukraine can cut them off their supplies, reinforcements and communications if they liberate the East i.e. Luhask & Donetsk with the only open route from Russia through Crimea and over the Kerch Bridge which will be within range of HIMARS. Game over soon, hopefully. Russia could spare many lives if they start to withdraw. 

[Sooks]

44 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

The chance of actual negotiations ended with the war crimes in March north of Kyiv - Bucha etc. And what has actually happened but not yet confirmed in Mariupol will make any joint work on an agreement impossible. 

 

Again Ukraine might feel it's in its interest to offer Russia a way out. That might include what Zelensky was talking about in February/ early March of some form of special status for Crimea and Dombas. 

Ukraine will want to ensure the safety of the one and a half million people that Russia have taken hostage

[Pap]

11 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

The west need to arm Ukraine to the teeth. Time to do massive damage to Russia

 

I was thinking about this earlier. Something for the Film Cliche thread, that just as Ukraine are about to deliver the knock out blow, we start supplying less to them. 

 

We've started planning for the winter by preparing to send them tebs of thousands of Nato class winter uniforms. I'm sure we will continue giving them what they need. 

 

The thought of Russia weaponising not just the energy but the breadbasket of Europe is frightening.

[redjambo]

5 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

The chance of actual negotiations ended with the war crimes in March north of Kyiv - Bucha etc. And what has actually happened but not yet confirmed in Mariupol will make any joint work on an agreement impossible.

 

Yup. The only thing left realistically left to negotiate is post-war negotiations on aspects like reparations, return of POWs and illegally-held citizens (including orphaned children), return of Russian equipment (unrealistic), future border demilitarisation, NATO membership, etc.

 

6 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Again Ukraine might feel it's in its interest to offer Russia a way out. That might include what Zelensky was talking about in February/ early March of some form of special status for Crimea and Dombas. 

 

Possibly. I don't think that Ukraine would accept anything short of their sine die status as Ukrainian territory though. For example, Russia might propose that referendums be held in the future - Ukraine won't be having any of that now.

[redjambo]

Russia currently bombing various areas in Ukraine, including Kharkiv. More civilian casualties guaranteed.

[Pap]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Yup. The only thing left realistically left to negotiate is post-war negotiations on aspects like reparations, return of POWs and illegally-held citizens (including orphaned children), return of Russian equipment (unrealistic), future border demilitarisation, NATO membership, etc.

 

 

Possibly. I don't think that Ukraine would accept anything short of their sine die status as Ukrainian territory though. For example, Russia might propose that referendums be held in the future - Ukraine won't be having any of that now.

 

I think Nato will be off the table. The EU will be will the happy medium that Russia would more receptable to (Nato light if you look at it like that). And they will be covered by article 42.7 in the Treaty of Lisbon if they ever attacked again.

[Sooks]

Thanks who ever it was that recommended the Telegram feed

[redjambo]

38 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Russia currently bombing various areas in Ukraine, including Kharkiv. More civilian casualties guaranteed.

 

They're reportedly hitting power stations and other infrastructure. No fecking shame.

[Sooks]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

They're reportedly hitting power stations and other infrastructure. No fecking shame.

Caused a black out 

 

[Pap]

7 minutes ago, Sooks said:

Thanks who ever it was that recommended the Telegram feed

 

You're welcome mate 

[Sooks]

3 minutes ago, Pap said:

 

You're welcome mate 

 🙂 

[Sooks]

[Sooks]

A bit more ………..

[Mikey1874]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

I don't think that Ukraine would accept anything short of their sine die status as Ukrainian territory though. For example, Russia might propose that referendums be held in the future - Ukraine won't be having any of that now.

 

The big problem I see for Russia both at war's end and long term is their destruction and murder in Russian speaking areas notably Mariupol. 

 

When Mariupol (Russian speaking city)'s story is fully told (at least 20,000 dead and many more forcibly moved to Russia) there is no way back for Ukrainian people and Russia.