2021 Scottish Parliament Election (Thursday 6th May 2021)

[Enzo Chiefo]

45 minutes ago, luckydug said:

When is the confirming vote for Brexit ? 🤔 

You're looking back the way, Dug. Perhaps at the outset that should have been the process but you can't introduce it afterwards as some democracy-denying "progressives" wanted; Sturgeon included. Knowing what we know now, its an absolute must. Remember the White Paper Xmas List claimed we could set up a new state for £200m and within 18mths. They couldn't even take on a few extra welfare powers within that timescale and had to hand them back.🤣

[Shanks said no]

15 minutes ago, sadj said:

sticking with Burnett by 2500/3000 

3,390

[sadj]

3 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

3,390

Im claiming that 😉 bit more of a swing from Lib Dems than i thought. 
 

Edit: I think the number of English people up here with the very English identity that is coming through in England may be helping them up here. 
 

 Could be way off the mark though

Edited May 8, 2021 by sadj

[DETTY29]

The Liberal Democrats and Labour

 

😆☺️😂

 

(Although I'd rather Labour had done better)

Edited May 8, 2021 by DETTY29

[Shanks said no]

Just now, sadj said:

Im claiming that 😉 bit more of a swing from Lib Dems than i thought. 

 

I'm going to look back 24 hours, think I predicted the overall Scottish result after the first 5 or 6 seats came in.

[indianajones]

3 minutes ago, sadj said:

Im claiming that 😉 bit more of a swing from Lib Dems than i thought. 
 

Edit: I think the number of English people up here with the very English identity that is coming through in England may be helping them up here. 
 

 Could be way off the mark though

 

 

You really aren't. 

Struggle to hear a Scottish accent around these parts. 

[Shanks said no]

1 minute ago, DETTY29 said:

Liberal Democrats and Labour

 

😆☺️😂

Liberal Dem's lose some of their rights in the parliament if they have dropped from 5 to 4 seats. Hopefully means wee Willie doesn't get to bore for Scotland at FMQ's

[sadj]

Just now, The Frenchman Returns said:

 

I'm going to look back 24 hours, think I predicted the overall Scottish result after the first 5 or 6 seats came in.

My take was 63/64 seats , i think it was a fair shout as soon as you saw Banff and Buchan. 
 

One good thing is I can keep working with Alexander Burnett and his team to push Aberdeenshire council on what we working on prior to the election

[gjcc]

2 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

The Liberal Democrats and Labour

 

😆☺️😂

 

(Although I'd rather Labour had done better)

I’m hoping it spurs Labour on to rethink their Indy stance now that it appears the people prefer Tory as the anti Indy vote. Probably a pipe dream though. 

[Shanks said no]

On 07/05/2021 at 15:07, The Frenchman Returns said:

Looking at the results so far I would say very few seats are going to change hands on the constituency list.  Would estimate less than 5

 

key however will be the list votes. If voters have blindly voted snp again then nothing much changes and the parliament will again have a similar look. However if the nationalist vote voted tactically to green or Alba then they should be in a better place. The unionist vote can move about and it will be swings and roundabouts on their side
 

time will tell

 

note -this is meant to be a non political post just looking at numbers 

 

Just wish I had put money on it.

[dobmisterdobster]

Greens forecast to have 9 seats.

[DETTY29]

10 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Liberal Dem's lose some of their rights in the parliament if they have dropped from 5 to 4 seats. Hopefully means wee Willie doesn't get to bore for Scotland at FMQ's

I'd need to check if you do.

 

(Edit, sorry if that was a statement of fact from you).

 

Willie should keep his head down for a while.  What a prat.

Edited May 8, 2021 by DETTY29

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, gjcc said:

I’m hoping it spurs Labour on to rethink their Indy stance now that it appears the people prefer Tory as the anti Indy vote. Probably a pipe dream though. 

 

Now that Labour aren't dependent on Scottish Labour MPs to prop them up on a UK level (because we're not providing them with any/many), you never know. Adopting an Indy stance of "we can see benefits and costs but it us up to the Scottish people to decide" might be a good step for them.

[Boris]

1 hour ago, JimmyCant said:

I agree it’s attainable. But my point would be, when you tot up the popular votes in the country, there is a good possibility that pro union parties will have polled more votes than pro Indy parties. To me that’s not a mandate.

Boris has a majority of 82 @ Westminster. Tory vote nowhere near that yet it's the system that decides who gets to deliver.

 

ONly a referendum can give you a proper mandate, imo.

[sadj]

1 minute ago, indianajones said:

 

 

You really aren't. 

Struggle to hear a Scottish accent around these parts. 

Absolutely. Again iv no evidence for this but id be surprised if the average age of constituents wasn’t higher up here.
 

The affluence of the area may well be challenged in the next few years I think. The amount of votes Bowie has gone against his constituents on at Westminster may have big consequences for the people around here. Same in Banff and Buchan and I can not for the life of me understand that when already they are seeing the shambles Brexit has caused for them and their livelihoods. 

 

Speaking to my Tory mate this morning even she is resigned to the area being a mess under Brexit.

 

Interesting to see where it goes over the next few years thats for sure.
 

 

[Shanks said no]

1 minute ago, DETTY29 said:

I'd need to check if you do.

 

(Edit, sorry if that was a statement if fact from you).

 

Willie should keep his head down for a while.  What a prat.

Quote from BBC, they lose some rights

[DETTY29]

5 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Greens forecast to have 9 seats.

They were on for 12 on Wednesday on some polls, back down to 6 last night, so I suppose 9 is a that likely mid outcome, as now predicted by BBC.

Edited May 8, 2021 by DETTY29

[sadj]

Just now, The Frenchman Returns said:

Quote from BBC, they lose some rights

Willie has to refrain from saying “mental health” and has to have his mic muted permanently.

 

Mundell and Ross both making a fool of themselves today with their comments. Everything gets turned back to bad SNP bad Greens. There is not any bloody policies from them. We need a proper opposition up here. We don’t have one in England or Scotland

[redjambo]

Just now, Boris said:

Boris has a majority of 82 @ Westminster. Tory vote nowhere near that yet it's the system that decides who gets to deliver.

 

Only a referendum can give you a proper mandate, imo.

 

Agreed. Isn't the idea however that having a majority of pro-independence MSPs, as well as the material change in the UK's situation caused of Brexit of course, gives you a mandate to hold said referendum?

[dobmisterdobster]

BBC Forecast: SNP 63, Con 31, Lab 22, Green 9, Lib Dem 4

 

If we have a Unionist Presiding Officer then that should be a pro-independence majority of 8

[sadj]

1 minute ago, DETTY29 said:

They were on for 12 on Wednesday on some polls, back down to 6 last night, so I suppose 9 is a that likely midoutcome, as predicted by BBC.

Patrick Harvie said that he thought it would be the middle of the high and low estimates

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Greens forecast to have 9 seats.

 

If ifs and buts were pots and pans, but if only more independence-minded voters had chosen an SNP-Green ticket (and if the Albans had voted Green), it could have been higher. A good result all the same.

[sadj]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Agreed. Isn't the idea however that having a majority of pro-independence MSPs, as well as the material change in the UK's situation caused of Brexit of course, gives you a mandate to hold said referendum?

I think so personally. Weve seen an increase in the SNP vote , decrease slightly in Cons n Labour , Increase in Greens across the constituency seats. The lists will be interesting. In terms of the fptp part its a record vote level for any party the SNP achieved.

 

History in Glasgow Kelvin ❤️ Kaukab understandably emotional

[hughesie27]

Nice big Majority increase in Pentlands.

[doctor jambo]

7 minutes ago, sadj said:

Willie has to refrain from saying “mental health” and has to have his mic muted permanently.

 

Mundell and Ross both making a fool of themselves today with their comments. Everything gets turned back to bad SNP bad Greens. There is not any bloody policies from them. We need a proper opposition up here. We don’t have one in England or Scotland

When voters don’t hold the ruling party to account that is a bigger issue.

And that is not happening.

 

[sadj]

1 minute ago, doctor jambo said:

When voters don’t hold the ruling party to account that is a bigger issue.

And that is not happening.

 

feel free to expand on that thought process

[Nookie Bear]

39 minutes ago, indianajones said:

 

 

You really aren't. 

Struggle to hear a Scottish accent around these parts. 

You sound annoyed about that. 

[John Findlay]

15 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

When voters don’t hold the ruling party to account that is a bigger issue.

And that is not happening.

 

Then surely the question to be asked is why?

Why are the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems failing so miserably?

 

Could it be that the Scottish electorate see them as just branch offices of their London masters?

They are not allowed to do anything without the approval of down south?

Labour particularly have alot of hard thinking to do, and should really give serious thought to breaking away from London imho.

[Weakened Offender]

37 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Greens forecast to have 9 seats.

 

'Mon The Greens 😊

[Footballfirst]

30 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

BBC Forecast: SNP 63, Con 31, Lab 22, Green 9, Lib Dem 4

 

If we have a Unionist Presiding Officer then that should be a pro-independence majority of 8

I'd check your arithmetic.

 

(63+9) - (31+22+4) -1 = 14 

[Mikey1874]

39 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Greens forecast to have 9 seats.

 

Did Alex Salmond actually achieve something? 

[dobmisterdobster]

2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I'd check your arithmetic.

 

(63+9) - (31+22+4) -1 = 14 

 

Yeah you're right. I wasn't using the right formula.

[dobmisterdobster]

2 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Did Alex Salmond actually achieve something? 

 

No, he got crushed on the Aberdeen list. Not sure what the future holds for him.

[cylawny]

8 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I'd check your arithmetic.

 

(63+9) - (31+22+4) -1 = 14 

 

I'd check yours.

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, coconut doug said:

 

Great post. 

[Footballfirst]

2 minutes ago, cylawny said:

 

I'd check yours.

LOL

 

yup!  mea culpa

 

Should just be 16.

[indianajones]

17 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

You sound annoyed about that. 

 

Nope. 

 

Thanks for the concern though. 

 

👍

 

[ri Alban]

140000 votes for the SNP in Central Scotland and no seats. 

 

Fecking scandal.

 

 

62 v 11.

 

 

List msp are a fecking joke. 

[RobboM]

3 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

140000 votes for the SNP in Central Scotland and no seats. 

 

Fecking scandal.

 

 

62 v 11.

 

 

List msp are a fecking joke. 

They really aren't but Salmond's Alba party highlighted a major flaw in the system. What would stop the SNP fielding NO candidates in the list but a separate "SNP List Party" ONLY competing on the list? What stops that double accounting? Genuine question, I haven't seen it answered elsewhere.

[redjambo]

8 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

140000 votes for the SNP in Central Scotland and no seats. 

 

Fecking scandal.

 

 

62 v 11.

 

 

List msp are a fecking joke. 

 

Nope. They're a good attempt at proportional representation. As it should be.

[ri Alban]

4 minutes ago, RobboM said:

They really aren't but Salmond's Alba party highlighted a major flaw in the system. What would stop the SNP fielding NO candidates in the list but a separate "SNP List Party" ONLY competing on the list? What stops that double accounting? Genuine question, I haven't seen it answered elsewhere.

You should only get list seats if you have stood on the constituency vote. But that's just my opinion, like everything else I post. It's only an opinion. 

[ri Alban]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Nope. They're a good attempt at proportional representation. As it should be.

Why don't we just all vote for a party, then divide it on that. 1 vote. 

What do think, redjambo. And get yer arse back on the Coronavirus thread, your input was and is appreciated by most, bud. 👍

[Ray Gin]

Comfortable pro indy majority despite the red and blue tories getting into bed with each other. 

😎

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, RobboM said:

They really aren't but Salmond's Alba party highlighted a major flaw in the system. What would stop the SNP fielding NO candidates in the list but a separate "SNP List Party" ONLY competing on the list? What stops that double accounting? Genuine question, I haven't seen it answered elsewhere.

 

It would be a gamble if they weren't to win large numbers of constituency seats. And obviously candidates couldn't belong to both parties so would have to choose one or the other for the election. New Zealand, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_member_system anyway, appear to require list candidates to also contest a constituency. Without having explored the nuances and consequences, I like that general idea to be honest. Perhaps it could be tied into a provision that each candidate has to achieve a certain percentage of the vote in their constituency in order to be eligible as a successful list candidate. More info on AMS is at the above link anyway.

[Gards]

This is my first Scottish election since returning from US....so first time experiencing the region/list thing.  Just saw it raised above but also don't understand how a party that gets 45% of the central Scotland vote doesn't get any MSP's put forward.  Can someone explain to me how that works or point me to something?

 

Cheers.

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Why don't we just all vote for a party, then divide it on that. 1 vote. 

What do think, redjambo. And get yer arse back on the Coronavirus thread, your input was and is appreciated by most, bud. 👍

 

But the idea that an MP, MSP or other elected representative represents the population in a specific local area (preferably one in which they live, imo) is important in a democracy, at least as far as I am concerned. Also, your 100% list method would mean that we would be completely beholden to the parties to put forward decent people on their lists (as opposed to being half-beholden which we are now).

 

Thanks for the offer by the way but I'd rather <insert painful and horrific personal experience here> than return to the Covid thread.

[ri Alban]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

But the idea that an MP, MSP or other elected representative represents the population in a specific local area (preferably one in which they live, imo) is important in a democracy, at least as far as I am concerned. Also, your 100% list method would mean that we would be completely beholden to the parties to put forward decent people on their lists (as opposed to being half-beholden which we are now).

 

Thanks for the offer by the way but I'd rather <insert painful and horrific personal experience here> than return to the Covid thread.

OK bud. Shame. 

[ri Alban]

So if was Westminster. It would be a 51 seat majority. 

 

[kingantti1874]

9 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

Comfortable pro indy majority despite the red and blue tories getting into bed with each other. 

😎

so more people vote for pro union parties by  whatever measure you chose tho throw at it, a clear majority in the polls don’t want it but according to you there is a clear majority ? 😂😂😂😂😂

 

donald trump level repeat it enough times and it becomes true style politics

[ri Alban]

Edinburgh weighing right in on the SNP.

 

 

Go on the capital!