2021 Scottish Parliament Election (Thursday 6th May 2021)

[OTT]

1 hour ago, Sarah O said:

Where I'm at aswell. 

 

 

Both votes SNP was absolute madness. It appears tens/hundreds of thousands of people don't bother actually trying to understand how the system works. 

 

Oh well. 

 

Yeah, I mean as much as I wanted Alba to win representation, I also just didn't want to see Indy votes go to waste, SNP1&2 doesn't work anymore and its apparent both the Greens and Alba are going to need to invest heavily over the next parliamentary term educating people about that. The SNPs success on the constituency is virtually a given at this point, whilst circa 50% of the population support Independence and the vote remains not split then they're going to have a solid chance of picking up the majority of the constituencies (exceptions, Orkney/Shetland, the borders and where tactical voting occurs). 

 

My frustration is partly because of folk within the SNP claiming that Alba were attempting to game the system. If someone can explain how Jackie Baillie retaining her seat is anything other than 'gaming the system' then I'm all ears (tory vote when down by the exact proportion hers went up, don't be telling me Conservatives are suddenly buying Labour values  ). Not only that, but if the system is set up to constrain the push for self determination, do we not have every right to play the system in the same way the unionist parties that set it up do? (See spoiler). 

 

Spoiler

 

A pro-indy 'super majority' parliament could have helped normalise the idea of Independence among undecided's/ soft no's. Despite the grief Alba were getting for being 'socially conservative', they still offered a different outlook on Indy than the SNP and Greens and that did resonate with some voters, just a shame its looking like about 1-3%. Things like a national house builder could have been a god send to young people across Scotland looking to try and get on the housing ladder. (hardly socially conservative IMO). 

 

My hope is that the need for Alba becomes redundant over the coming parliament given that the Tories were quoted as saying an SNP victory 'Guarantees a referendum' because they have a mountain to climb, and I think whilst Sturgeon remains first minister people will continue to not question SNP2 despite the obvious flaws. Once in a generation is no longer a valid argument putting aside the ridiculousness of it with the Good Friday agreement defining a generation as 7 years and us now being 7 years on from 2014. 

[Ibrahim Tall]

5 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

Been unable to do that for some time now, and we are in an angry, post-Brexit world which I thought would be the tipping point. 

Given many of the polls in 2013 pre-referendum had ‘yes’ only in the 30’s having a start point of the late 40’s this time around wouldn’t exactly be a bad omen tbh. 

[kingantti1874]

So the majority of the country and voted for pro unionist parties again yet we will need to listen to sturgeon and Patrick Harvey bang on about their ill thought out destructive constitutional nonsense for another 5 years. Is that about the size of it? 
 

We have 3 parties who despite their differences want to get on and run the country and one party who’s sole aim is independence.

 

the system is broken, Time the FPTP was scrapped in Scotland and replaced by a full proportional representation system or we will will end up taking a different path and basically have 2 parties, one pro independence and one pro union which will do the citizens of this country no favours at all. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by kingantti1874

[pablo]

Just now, kingantti1874 said:

So the majority of the country and voted for pro unionist parties again yet we will need to listen to sturgeon and Patrick Harvey bang on about their ill thought destructive plans for another 5 years. Is that about the size of it? 
 

We have 3 parties who despite their differences want to get on and run the country and one party who’s sole aim is independence.

 

the system is broken, Time the FPTP was scrapped in Scotland and replaced by a full proportional representation system or we will will end up taking a different path and basically have 2 parties, one pro independence and one pro union which will do the citizens of this country no favours at all. 

 

Well, a lot could still happen today and the SNP could still achieve a majority. But even if they did, so what? There's not going to be another referendum within the lifetime of the next SG.

 

Five more years of division, five more wasted years of cronyism, division, stagnation and continuing failure in Education and closing the attainment gap. 

 

Oh Scotland. 

[OTT]

36 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

Been unable to do that for some time now, and we are in an angry, post-Brexit world which I thought would be the tipping point. 

 

 

Big questions still haven't been answered sufficiently. I'm trying to work out why though, i.e is it gamemanship from the SNP, i.e if we announce currency plans clearly then the Unionists have years to pick them apart and tell as why they might not work/ create doubt, where as if its sprung on them during referendum campaigning then its harder for them to meaningfully dismiss.

 

It does sound like very little work has actually been done in putting forward the answers to the questions the circa 15% of volatile voters need answers to. 

 

Brexit did prove that the heart can trump the head though, so I suppose its not entirely necessary if done correctly. I think making it very clear that voters have a clear choice to make of being a region within the UK or being an independent nation in europe which I think is a winnable argument. We didn't vote for Brexit, and its yet another example of the democratic deficit Scotland faces whilst relegated to a region within the UK. 

[hughesie27]

36 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

So the majority of the country and voted for pro unionist parties again yet we will need to listen to sturgeon and Patrick Harvey bang on about their ill thought out destructive constitutional nonsense for another 5 years. Is that about the size of it? 
 

We have 3 parties who despite their differences want to get on and run the country and one party who’s sole aim is independence.

 

the system is broken, Time the FPTP was scrapped in Scotland and replaced by a full proportional representation system or we will will end up taking a different path and basically have 2 parties, one pro independence and one pro union which will do the citizens of this country no favours at all. 

Will be interesting to see the number of votes cast for greens vs Lib Dems.

[Footballfirst]

Here is a comparison between the FPP and List votes for the three Edinburgh constituencies that have declared both results. 

 

FPP	SNP	Tories	Labour	Greens	Libdems	Others	Total
Southern	16738	5258	20760		2189	317	45262
Central	16276	11544	6839	3921	2555	578	41713
Western	15693	2798	2515		25578	201	46785
Total	48707	19600	30114	3921	30322	1096	133760
	36.4%	14.7%	22.5%	2.9%	22.7%	0.8%	100.0%
LIST	SNP	Tories	Labour	Greens	Libdems	Alba	Others	Total
Southern	11053	9357	11128	8605	3373	611	1355	45482
Central	12476	9766	6866	7604	3075	639	1411	41837
Western	14409	9350	5140	4101	11923	614	1358	46895
Total	37938	28473	23134	20310	18371	1864	4124	134214
	28.3%	21.2%	17.2%	15.1%	13.7%	1.4%	3.1%	100.0%

 

There is clearly tactical voting in favour of the winning unionist parties, both in the Southern and Western FPP constituencies, plus SNP voters similarly splitting their votes in the regional vote in favour of the Greens in all the List votes.

 

In terms of an "independence" vote the SNP & Greens got 39.3% of the FPP vote, but the SNP, Greens and Alba got 44.8% of the List votes.

 

Take what you want from those figures.

 

 

[pablo]

1 minute ago, OTT said:

 

 

Big questions still haven't been answered sufficiently. I'm trying to work out why though, i.e is it gamemanship from the SNP, i.e if we announce currency plans clearly then the Unionists have years to pick them apart and tell as why they might not work/ create doubt, where as if its sprung on them during referendum campaigning then its harder for them to meaningfully dismiss.

 

It does sound like very little work has actually been done in putting forward the answers to the questions the circa 15% of volatile voters need answers to. 

 

Brexit did prove that the heart can trump the head though, so I suppose its not entirely necessary if done correctly. I think making it very clear that voters have a clear choice to make of being a region within the UK or being an independent nation in europe which I think is a winnable argument. We didn't vote for Brexit, and its yet another example of the democratic deficit Scotland faces whilst relegated to a region within the UK. 

 

Interesting post. I think you're probably onto something regarding the currency question. 

 

With Brexit, it's a difficult one. You've understandably framed it from your own and the SNP position. What I think as someone from the pro UK side, is that it didn't ever feel like that, even though I was and still am pro EU. It always felt like a UK question, not a Scottish one and maybe that's why the SNP are still stuck around 45% of the vote, even after Brexit? 

[Homme]

"We are the 45" as relevant as ever then.

 

 

[kingantti1874]

29 minutes ago, OTT said:

 

 

Big questions still haven't been answered sufficiently. I'm trying to work out why though, i.e is it gamemanship from the SNP, i.e if we announce currency plans clearly then the Unionists have years to pick them apart and tell as why they might not work/ create doubt, where as if its sprung on them during referendum campaigning then its harder for them to meaningfully dismiss.

 

It does sound like very little work has actually been done in putting forward the answers to the questions the circa 15% of volatile voters need answers to. 

 

Brexit did prove that the heart can trump the head though, so I suppose its not entirely necessary if done correctly. I think making it very clear that voters have a clear choice to make of being a region within the UK or being an independent nation in europe which I think is a winnable argument. We didn't vote for Brexit, and its yet another example of the democratic deficit Scotland faces whilst relegated to a region within the UK. 

They don’t put forward the answers because they don’t have any not because they will be picked apart by clever unionists. 
 

How exactly will be able to maintain current level of spending without material tax hikes? 
 

Given the likely tax hikes how to we avoid a talent drain. 
 

How exactly would we avoid a hard border ? And Join the EU? The reality is the EU would demand that issue be sorted before it was even an option to rejoin the EU. 
 

or do we just accept a hard border? And need a visa to visit friends and family and travel to our jobs.
 

As a very small nation How do we join the EU and not adopt the Euro. We have zero leverage.

 

One of our biggest industries is retail banking. How can retail banking survive in Scotland when 95% of customers are in the rest of the U.K. ? 

 

I could go on and on and on
 

I don’t fall into the camp that Scotland is too wee or not capable, I believe Scotland absolutely could stand on its own but it will take decades, it would be extremely tough for every for a very long time whilst Scotland rebuilds every corner of its economy to resolve the challenges it would face.  This Union is far deeper, far more complex and far more emotional than our ties with the EU ever were ( I was very much pro EU and anti brexit ) There is an absolute risk that we could see the same divisions and possibly even violence that has plagued Ireland for half a century. Like it or not a massive proportion of the country fee British and if it’s ripped away then people better be prepared to deal with the consequences.
 

The SNP have somehow convinced a large slice of the country that very thing will be rosy in the garden - I say somehow but that’s not really accurate given they’ve deliberately carpet bombed the young and naive with false propaganda .  Better to promise lots of free things you can’t deliver rather than face into the hard questions right.  

For me personally, any hint of independence and my property is on the market and I’m out. My job will partly dictate this given but equally I absolutely refuse to foot the bill for it. I’m absolutely sick to death of killing myself with work as it is, paying for free everything and I refuse to pay any more. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by kingantti1874

[Harry Potter]

4 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

They don’t put forward the answers because they don’t have any not because they will be picked apart by clever unionists. 
 

How exactly will be able to maintain current level of spending without material tax hikes? 
 

Given the likely tax hikes how to we avoid a talent drain. 
 

How exactly would we avoid a hard border ? And Join the EU? The reality is the EU would demand that issue be sorted before it was even an option to rejoin the EU. 
 

or do we just accept a hard border? And need a visa to visit friends and family.
 

As a very small nation How do we join the EU and not adopt the Euro. We have zero leverage.

 

One of our biggest industries is retail banking. How can retail banking survive in Scotland when 95% of customers are in the rest of the U.K. ? 

 

I could go on and on and on
 

I don’t fall into the camp that Scotland is too wee or not capable, I believe Scotland absolutely could stand on its own but it will take decades.
 

However I’m not stupid enough to believe it would be anything other than extremely tough for every for a very long time whilst Scotland rebuilds every corner of its economy to resolve the challenges it would face.  This Union is far deeper, far more complex and far more emotional than our ties with the EU. There is an absolute risk that we could see the same divisions and possibly even violence that has plagued Ireland for half a century. Like it or not a massive proportion of the country fee British and if it’s ripped away then people better be prepared to deal with the consequences.
 

The SNP have somehow convinced a large slice of the country that very thing will be rosy in the garden - I say somehow but that’s not really accurate given they’ve deliberately carpet bombed the young and naive with false propaganda .  Better to promise lots of free things you can’t deliver rather than face into the hard questions right.  

For me personally, any hint of independence and my property is on the market and I’m out. My job will partly dictate this given but equally I absolutely refuse to foot the bill for it. I’m absolutely sick to death of killing myself with work as it is, paying for free everything and I refuse to pay any more. 

Wont be much change out of 30 million for a 2nd ref😵.

[kingantti1874]

4 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

Wont be much change out of 30 million for a 2nd ref😵.

Id have another referendum tomorrow, IF we dont repeat the mistakes of  brexit and define what it actually actually looks like before the vote takes place. Anything else will lead to years of arguement and further division 

 

And it’s written into law that the outcome either way cannot be re visited 
 

This debate is a cancer at the heart of this country. It needs to be put to bed permanently one way or another and then we all need to take a view on what that means for us and our families and take it from there. 

[Swahili Jambo]

1 hour ago, pablo said:

 

Well, a lot could still happen today and the SNP could still achieve a majority. But even if they did, so what? There's not going to be another referendum within the lifetime of the next SG.

 

Five more years of division, five more wasted years of cronyism, division, stagnation and continuing failure in Education and closing the attainment gap. 

 

Oh Scotland. 

Yeaah.  Get them tories in.  And anyone who uses cronyism on a football forum is a complete wannaB I'm trying to be cleverer than you *****

[Norm]

32 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Here is a comparison between the FPP and List votes for the three Edinburgh constituencies that have declared both results. 

 

FPP	SNP	Tories	Labour	Greens	Libdems	Others	Total
Southern	16738	5258	20760		2189	317	45262
Central	16276	11544	6839	3921	2555	578	41713
Western	15693	2798	2515		25578	201	46785
Total	48707	19600	30114	3921	30322	1096	133760
	36.4%	14.7%	22.5%	2.9%	22.7%	0.8%	100.0%
LIST	SNP	Tories	Labour	Greens	Libdems	Alba	Others	Total
Southern	11053	9357	11128	8605	3373	611	1355	45482
Central	12476	9766	6866	7604	3075	639	1411	41837
Western	14409	9350	5140	4101	11923	614	1358	46895
Total	37938	28473	23134	20310	18371	1864	4124	134214
	28.3%	21.2%	17.2%	15.1%	13.7%	1.4%	3.1%	100.0%

 

There is clearly tactical voting in favour of the winning unionist parties, both in the Southern and Western FPP constituencies, plus SNP voters similarly splitting their votes in the regional vote in favour of the Greens in all the List votes.

 

In terms of an "independence" vote the SNP & Greens got 39.3% of the FPP vote, but the SNP, Greens and Alba got 44.8% of the List votes.

 

Take what you want from those figures.

 

 

There's also a few Green voters who voted SNP because there was no Green constituency candidate. 

[Sarah O]

2 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Or they chose to vote for Greens who don't have Alex Salmond as their figurehead

But they didn't. They voted SNP 2. 

[Nookie Bear]

1 hour ago, Ibrahim Tall said:

Given many of the polls in 2013 pre-referendum had ‘yes’ only in the 30’s having a start point of the late 40’s this time around wouldn’t exactly be a bad omen tbh. 

But the last elections are essentially mini Indy referendums and I don’t think the results are conclusive enough for the SNP yet. 
 

Edit: to put it another way, the first thing Swinney says is that it gives Scotland the mandate to push on with another referendum. I would prefer to hear their policies for governing the country in the immediate future, but not a thing. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Nookie Bear

[Pasquale for King]

8 hours ago, Smithee said:

No wait they are. Even the best looking talk shit sometimes. Must be the time of night

The Greens stood in some constituencies. 

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, OTT said:

 

 

Big questions still haven't been answered sufficiently. I'm trying to work out why though, i.e is it gamemanship from the SNP, i.e if we announce currency plans clearly then the Unionists have years to pick them apart and tell as why they might not work/ create doubt, where as if its sprung on them during referendum campaigning then its harder for them to meaningfully dismiss.

 

It does sound like very little work has actually been done in putting forward the answers to the questions the circa 15% of volatile voters need answers to. 

 

Brexit did prove that the heart can trump the head though, so I suppose its not entirely necessary if done correctly. I think making it very clear that voters have a clear choice to make of being a region within the UK or being an independent nation in europe which I think is a winnable argument. We didn't vote for Brexit, and its yet another example of the democratic deficit Scotland faces whilst relegated to a region within the UK. 

I’m not sure how closely you follow the Yes movement but the currency question has been worked on and there are a few solutions, the SNPs growth commission being the worst. Common Weal/Craig Dalzell and Timothy Rideout are the best to look up and read. 

[Pasquale for King]

25 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

But the last elections are essentially mini Indy referendums and I don’t think the results are conclusive enough for the SNP yet. 
 

Edit: to put it another way, the first thing Swinney says is that it gives Scotland the mandate to push on with another referendum. I would prefer to hear their policies for governing the country in the immediate future, but not a thing. 

Amazing what you can find on the internet. 
https://www.snp.org/manifesto/

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, Harry Potter said:

Wont be much change out of 30 million for a 2nd ref😵.

First one cost £9.5m so what makes you think £30m? Whatever it costs as long as it’s spent on Scottish companies it helps the economy, is that not a good thing?

Edited May 8, 2021 by Pasquale for King

[Boab]

Think this new counting procedure should be the norm. Two days of results. No need for overnight counts. 

[kingantti1874]

1 minute ago, Pasquale for King said:

First one cost £9.5 so what makes you think £30m? Whatever it costs as long as it’s spent on Scottish companies it helps the economy, is that not a good thing?

its taxpayer money.

 

Assuming that this election, which shows a majority of Scottish voters and taxpayers voted for pro union parties, is representative I’d suggest there are better uses.  Unless of course it would put an end to this once and for all
 

 

[XB52]

34 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

But the last elections are essentially mini Indy referendums and I don’t think the results are conclusive enough for the SNP yet. 
 

Edit: to put it another way, the first thing Swinney says is that it gives Scotland the mandate to push on with another referendum. I would prefer to hear their policies for governing the country in the immediate future, but not a thing. 

Read their manifesto

[Nookie Bear]

9 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Amazing what you can find on the internet. 
https://www.snp.org/manifesto/

I want to hear them talk about it. Promote it and justify their record and actions. Be a positive governing party not weighted down by one issue. 

How many SNP voters have read that manifesto? About the same percentage of Tories who read theirs, I would imagine. 

[Shanks said no]

Aberdeenshire East SNP Hold

[Pasquale for King]

41 minutes ago, Sarah O said:

But they didn't. They voted SNP 2. 

Which is their right however misguided it is, can’t blame them for not voting Alba with its various nut job backers. 

[Pasquale for King]

Just now, Nookie Bear said:

I want to hear them talk about it. Promote it and justify their record and actions. Be a positive governing party not weighted down by one issue. 

How many SNP voters have read that manifesto? About the same percentage of Tories who read theirs, I would imagine. 

I’m sure if you look at their Social Media or PPBs they will have spoken about it, if the debates actually focused on policies and not just the Tories shouting about independence a conversation on policies may have broken out. They’ve won another election and didn’t get my vote but you have to accept they’re the most popular party, for a variety of reasons. 

[XB52]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Which is their right however misguided it is, can’t blame them for not voting Alba with its various nut job backers. 

If Salmond had swallowed his ego, realised that Alba were polling far too low to get any seats, and urged his supporters to vote green then we would get a lot more independence seats. Would even have made a lot more snp supporters to switch to green

[JudyJudyJudy]

Good to see Daniel Johnson retain Southern Edinburgh seat ! Well done mate 

[pablo]

Assuming nothing significant happens during the lifetime of the next Parliament, it looks like Tactical voting could play a major role in 5 years time.

 

Separatists appear to be waking up to both votes SNP being a waste and with a credible second party in the regional, they could get the super majority.

 

Pro UK voters will have seen that with a bit of organisation between the split support, putting country before party could easily skittle dozens of SNP constituencies.

 

Could be very interesting.

[OTT]

1 minute ago, Pasquale for King said:

I’m not sure how closely you follow the Yes movement but the currency question has been worked on and there are a few solutions, the SNPs growth commission being the worst. Common Weal/Craig Dalzell and Timothy Rideout are the best to look up and read. 

 

Yeah, I've followed it, the growth commissions approach seems very cautious and seems to be about trying to change as little as possible despite the reality being that there will be significant change. Personally, I've bought more into the idea that a new currency should be set up and launched within 12 months of independence. I think continuing to use the pound is daft (very little control of fiscal policy, and the UK have already ruled out a currency union of any kind) and we should be looking to transfer to a new currency as soon as possible. I think coupled with that, there is a discussion to be had about any portion of debt being taken too. If the UK government are going to play hard ball with shared assets, then I think its only right that a similar hardball is played with debt. The idea we should pay some sort of vague solidarity payment for debt relating to shite like Trident is wrong. 

 

Salmond said his biggest regret of 2014 was failing to engage with the Grass roots until the Summer and that left too little time to make the headway needed. That YES was too top down, I'm feeling that way about the SNP currently, I don't think Andrew Wilsons views are popular with the membership and more needs to be done to engage with the membership on Independence instead of playing identity politics. 

 

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Which is their right however misguided it is, can’t blame them for not voting Alba with its various nut job backers. 

 

I voted Alba, but considering there was a pandemic on I was dying inside reading some of the tweets from the likes of Denise Findlay on twitter. Alba needed a positive campaign, the bloggers (wings etc.) Pete Wishart has been moaning about for years pretty much refused to try and build bridges with the SNP support, and idiots like Findlay continuing to push negativity towards the SNP on Twitter did nothing but push away the voters Alba desperately needed. Comments by Lynch, however misconstrued they were, were naïve and reckless, the lack of vetting on Alex Arthur annoyed me too - i.e did no one check his tweets?!? - such an obvious thing to do.. Brought needless negativity to something that should have been about engaging with SNP voters positively and helping guide them towards the common sense of maximising the YES vote. Circa 600 list votes in each constituency is gutting. The Tories were shitting themselves and had thought Alba could get up to 12% of the vote, which would have ate up the seats held by various Unionists. 

 

I had hoped that Alba and the more notable supporters would have taken a 'when they go low, we go high' approach, and really doubled down on that positive message but its very apparent that wasn't the case and I'm genuinely pissed off about. It was such a good opportunity and they did themselves absolutely no favours at all in building the support they needed. 

 

[manaliveits105]

59 minutes ago, Sarah O said:

But they didn't. They voted SNP 2. 

Yep thick as mince

[JudyJudyJudy]

Surely she will call for ref and if Boris is smart call her bluff and allow it . Let’s see what the population think then . Another divisive hate spewed campaign Yet again from both sides . But that’s democracy . She won’t want an Indy anytime soon as she knows if it’s a no she consigned to the political dustbin really . If no there has to be an agreement it’s on hold for a few decades . Can’t keep this charade up for years and years . Really not 💯 sure which way I’ll vote in the next one and was a firm Yesser last time . Felt devastated with the result , but have completely lost the passion for it now and see things more objectively from a Unionist perspective but still think any country should be able to govern itself and like I said before I can’t support a British Govt which is willing to spend billions on new nuclear ☢️ weapons instead of more pressing issues . The Achilles heel of the economy is SNP big issue and that’s only got a lot worse due to covid so they have a mountain to climb to convince people to vote yes 

[Shanks said no]

1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

Here is a comparison between the FPP and List votes for the three Edinburgh constituencies that have declared both results. 

 

FPP	SNP	Tories	Labour	Greens	Libdems	Others	Total
Southern	16738	5258	20760		2189	317	45262
Central	16276	11544	6839	3921	2555	578	41713
Western	15693	2798	2515		25578	201	46785
Total	48707	19600	30114	3921	30322	1096	133760
	36.4%	14.7%	22.5%	2.9%	22.7%	0.8%	100.0%
LIST	SNP	Tories	Labour	Greens	Libdems	Alba	Others	Total
Southern	11053	9357	11128	8605	3373	611	1355	45482
Central	12476	9766	6866	7604	3075	639	1411	41837
Western	14409	9350	5140	4101	11923	614	1358	46895
Total	37938	28473	23134	20310	18371	1864	4124	134214
	28.3%	21.2%	17.2%	15.1%	13.7%	1.4%	3.1%	100.0%

 

There is clearly tactical voting in favour of the winning unionist parties, both in the Southern and Western FPP constituencies, plus SNP voters similarly splitting their votes in the regional vote in favour of the Greens in all the List votes.

 

In terms of an "independence" vote the SNP & Greens got 39.3% of the FPP vote, but the SNP, Greens and Alba got 44.8% of the List votes.

 

Take what you want from those figures.

 

 

@Footballfirstmany thanks I have been looking for these all morning

 

I have number crunched on the back of a fag packet and IF this was representative of the whole of Lothian then by my quick calculations that is 

 

 

EDIT - MY CALCULATIONS DISCOUNTED SNP - THEY HAVE A CHANCE OF A LIST SEAT

 

 

However gets very tight when you start reaching seats 5-7

 

Note - purely for illustrative purposes, too little data to make any projection

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by The Frenchman Returns

[sadj]

3 minutes ago, pablo said:

Assuming nothing significant happens during the lifetime of the next Parliament, it looks like Tactical voting could play a major role in 5 years time.

 

Separatists appear to be waking up to both votes SNP being a waste and with a credible second party in the regional, they could get the super majority.

 

Pro UK voters will have seen that with a bit of organisation between the split support, putting country before party could easily skittle dozens of SNP constituencies.

 

Could be very interesting.

Dozens 🤔

[Sarah O]

18 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Which is their right however misguided it is, can’t blame them for not voting Alba with its various nut job backers. 

Absolutely. They also didn't vote for the nut job Greens either which is a good thing. 

[Pasquale for King]

14 minutes ago, XB52 said:

If Salmond had swallowed his ego, realised that Alba were polling far too low to get any seats, and urged his supporters to vote green then we would get a lot more independence seats. Would even have made a lot more snp supporters to switch to green

He can’t and never will swallow his ego, he won’t even disappear now after this disaster. 

[Pasquale for King]

2 minutes ago, Sarah O said:

Absolutely. They also didn't vote for the nut job Greens either which is a good thing. 

Why are Greens nut jobs? 

[Pasquale for King]

7 minutes ago, OTT said:

 

Yeah, I've followed it, the growth commissions approach seems very cautious and seems to be about trying to change as little as possible despite the reality being that there will be significant change. Personally, I've bought more into the idea that a new currency should be set up and launched within 12 months of independence. I think continuing to use the pound is daft (very little control of fiscal policy, and the UK have already ruled out a currency union of any kind) and we should be looking to transfer to a new currency as soon as possible. I think coupled with that, there is a discussion to be had about any portion of debt being taken too. If the UK government are going to play hard ball with shared assets, then I think its only right that a similar hardball is played with debt. The idea we should pay some sort of vague solidarity payment for debt relating to shite like Trident is wrong. 

 

Salmond said his biggest regret of 2014 was failing to engage with the Grass roots until the Summer and that left too little time to make the headway needed. That YES was too top down, I'm feeling that way about the SNP currently, I don't think Andrew Wilsons views are popular with the membership and more needs to be done to engage with the membership on Independence instead of playing identity politics. 

 

 

I voted Alba, but considering there was a pandemic on I was dying inside reading some of the tweets from the likes of Denise Findlay on twitter. Alba needed a positive campaign, the bloggers (wings etc.) Pete Wishart has been moaning about for years pretty much refused to try and build bridges with the SNP support, and idiots like Findlay continuing to push negativity towards the SNP on Twitter did nothing but push away the voters Alba desperately needed. Comments by Lynch, however misconstrued they were, were naïve and reckless, the lack of vetting on Alex Arthur annoyed me too - i.e did no one check his tweets?!? - such an obvious thing to do.. Brought needless negativity to something that should have been about engaging with SNP voters positively and helping guide them towards the common sense of maximising the YES vote. Circa 600 list votes in each constituency is gutting. The Tories were shitting themselves and had thought Alba could get up to 12% of the vote, which would have ate up the seats held by various Unionists. 

 

I had hoped that Alba and the more notable supporters would have taken a 'when they go low, we go high' approach, and really doubled down on that positive message but its very apparent that wasn't the case and I'm genuinely pissed off about. It was such a good opportunity and they did themselves absolutely no favours at all in building the support they needed. 

 

Spot on. We will see once the results are finalised, not that it will stop the arguing. 

[sadj]

 

29 minutes ago, Boab said:

Think this new counting procedure should be the norm. Two days of results. No need for overnight counts. 

 

We were discussing this yesterday. Does it suggest there may be more interaction and attention paid to it.

 

Kevin Hague on BBC News making a bit of twat of himself with his dismissive attitude and laughing about and toward the Scottish public and toward SNP. Getting well grilled by the BBC Anchor. 

[sadj]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

He can’t and never will swallow his ego, he won’t even disappear now after this disaster. 

Salmond 🤐🤐🤐🤐

[Pasquale for King]

35 minutes ago, Boab said:

Think this new counting procedure should be the norm. Two days of results. No need for overnight counts. 

As long as the coverage keeps up, to have to rely on twitter for results as the BBC&STV aren’t on is pretty poor. 

[Pasquale for King]

3 minutes ago, sadj said:

 

 

We were discussing this yesterday. Does it suggest there may be more interaction and attention paid to it.

 

Kevin Hague on BBC News making a bit of twat of himself with his dismissive attitude and laughing about and toward the Scottish public and toward SNP. Getting well grilled by the BBC Anchor. 

I saw him talk once and he had the whole room laughing at his outdated and myth laden chat. He’s actually doing the Yes movement a favour. 

[Pasquale for King]

4 minutes ago, sadj said:

Salmond 🤐🤐🤐🤐

I have to say I’ve never really liked him, a great speaker and well informed usually but his time has come and gone. 

[sadj]

12 minutes ago, OTT said:

 

Yeah, I've followed it, the growth commissions approach seems very cautious and seems to be about trying to change as little as possible despite the reality being that there will be significant change. Personally, I've bought more into the idea that a new currency should be set up and launched within 12 months of independence. I think continuing to use the pound is daft (very little control of fiscal policy, and the UK have already ruled out a currency union of any kind) and we should be looking to transfer to a new currency as soon as possible. I think coupled with that, there is a discussion to be had about any portion of debt being taken too. If the UK government are going to play hard ball with shared assets, then I think its only right that a similar hardball is played with debt. The idea we should pay some sort of vague solidarity payment for debt relating to shite like Trident is wrong. 

 

Salmond said his biggest regret of 2014 was failing to engage with the Grass roots until the Summer and that left too little time to make the headway needed. That YES was too top down, I'm feeling that way about the SNP currently, I don't think Andrew Wilsons views are popular with the membership and more needs to be done to engage with the membership on Independence instead of playing identity politics. 

 

 

I voted Alba, but considering there was a pandemic on I was dying inside reading some of the tweets from the likes of Denise Findlay on twitter. Alba needed a positive campaign, the bloggers (wings etc.) Pete Wishart has been moaning about for years pretty much refused to try and build bridges with the SNP support, and idiots like Findlay continuing to push negativity towards the SNP on Twitter did nothing but push away the voters Alba desperately needed. Comments by Lynch, however misconstrued they were, were naïve and reckless, the lack of vetting on Alex Arthur annoyed me too - i.e did no one check his tweets?!? - such an obvious thing to do.. Brought needless negativity to something that should have been about engaging with SNP voters positively and helping guide them towards the common sense of maximising the YES vote. Circa 600 list votes in each constituency is gutting. The Tories were shitting themselves and had thought Alba could get up to 12% of the vote, which would have ate up the seats held by various Unionists. 

 

I had hoped that Alba and the more notable supporters would have taken a 'when they go low, we go high' approach, and really doubled down on that positive message but its very apparent that wasn't the case and I'm genuinely pissed off about. It was such a good opportunity and they did themselves absolutely no favours at all in building the support they needed. 

 

Very good post 👍🏻 The currency question is quite straightforward. There is only really three options. Which you have touched on. For the UK saying na you can’t have the pound. That to me was a big thing last time around as those who are not overly clued up thought theyd wake up the morning after a yes vote and have no money because the pound would have been removed.

 

Im dubious of we would get independence as the number of people clued up enough in that volatile voting area is not imo that high , social media is such a big part of things nowadays. We saw that woth the pandemic - 5g gives you Covid - Spreads like wildfire and its taken as a truth by some. In a vote for independence any negative things posted on social media can and will get more engagement than it maybe deserves. Its a simple way to cause confusion and cause fear and that is the big problem with any vote nowadays. the immigration question at brexit which was front and centre was pushed as these people are stealing your money and jobs. That was flying around social media and people in less affluent areas. Its caused a division since imo too. It 💯 to me

distracted from the real issues that Brexit should have been fought on. 
 

Sorry for ranting

[Taffin]

Urging people to use both votes SNP makes me question the parties committment to independence rather than to themselves a little.

 

Now is the time to deliver independence. If it doesn't happen after the cluster of Brexit it will never happen. I like Nicola but I do think it's time for fresh leadership to deliver their supposed goal.

[Nucky Thompson]

6 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

As long as the coverage keeps up, to have to rely on twitter for results as the BBC&STV aren’t on is pretty poor. 

BBC news channel has had coverage since 10am this morning

[sadj]

Is the Scottish stuff on any dedicated channel or is just BBC news and in and out of Scotland?

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, kingantti1874 said:

They don’t put forward the answers because they don’t have any not because they will be picked apart by clever unionists. 
 

How exactly will be able to maintain current level of spending without material tax hikes? 
 

Given the likely tax hikes how to we avoid a talent drain. 
 

How exactly would we avoid a hard border ? And Join the EU? The reality is the EU would demand that issue be sorted before it was even an option to rejoin the EU. 
 

or do we just accept a hard border? And need a visa to visit friends and family and travel to our jobs.
 

As a very small nation How do we join the EU and not adopt the Euro. We have zero leverage.

 

One of our biggest industries is retail banking. How can retail banking survive in Scotland when 95% of customers are in the rest of the U.K. ? 

 

I could go on and on and on
 

I don’t fall into the camp that Scotland is too wee or not capable, I believe Scotland absolutely could stand on its own but it will take decades, it would be extremely tough for every for a very long time whilst Scotland rebuilds every corner of its economy to resolve the challenges it would face.  This Union is far deeper, far more complex and far more emotional than our ties with the EU ever were ( I was very much pro EU and anti brexit ) There is an absolute risk that we could see the same divisions and possibly even violence that has plagued Ireland for half a century. Like it or not a massive proportion of the country fee British and if it’s ripped away then people better be prepared to deal with the consequences.
 

The SNP have somehow convinced a large slice of the country that very thing will be rosy in the garden - I say somehow but that’s not really accurate given they’ve deliberately carpet bombed the young and naive with false propaganda .  Better to promise lots of free things you can’t deliver rather than face into the hard questions right.  

For me personally, any hint of independence and my property is on the market and I’m out. My job will partly dictate this given but equally I absolutely refuse to foot the bill for it. I’m absolutely sick to death of killing myself with work as it is, paying for free everything and I refuse to pay any more. 

Any future Scexit vote will need to be subject to a confirmatory referendum too, based on a negotiated deal with rUK. That way, rather than being presented with a White Paper wish list, most of which has now been proved to be a combination of distortion, half-truths and one-sided aims, the people will know the economic and social reality of separation.  Most democrats would surely agree?

[sadj]

Just now, Nucky Thompson said:

BBC news channel has had coverage since 10am this morning

Is there any specific Scottish coverage or just the general BBC one , I quite enjoyed BBC Scotlands one yesterday.