2021 Scottish Parliament Election (Thursday 6th May 2021)

[Mikey1874]

2 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

When can we expect results today?

 

I'd think final results around 7-9pm.

[kingantti1874]

 

 

25 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Surely she will call for ref and if Boris is smart call her bluff and allow it . Let’s see what the population think then . Another divisive hate spewed campaign Yet again from both sides . But that’s democracy . She won’t want an Indy anytime soon as she knows if it’s a no she consigned to the political dustbin really . If no there has to be an agreement it’s on hold for a few decades . Can’t keep this charade up for years and years . Really not 💯 sure which way I’ll vote in the next one and was a firm Yesser last time . Felt devastated with the result , but have completely lost the passion for it now and see things more objectively from a Unionist perspective but still think any country should be able to govern itself and like I said before I can’t support a British Govt which is willing to spend billions on new nuclear ☢️ weapons instead of more pressing issues . The Achilles heel of the economy is SNP big issue and that’s only got a lot worse due to covid so they have a mountain to climb to convince people to vote yes 

So in a world where it is very clear the Russians are being increasingly aggressive to the point where they have developed a new nuclear weapon capable of destroying an area the size of Texas, and various rogue unstable states seeking to arm themselves we leave ourselves with no threat so we can pay for free bus passes and bikes ? 

 

it would be great if we could rid the world of nuclear weapons, sadly we cannot put the cork back in that bottle so therefore mutually assured destruction strategy is as valid today as it was 40 years ago - if one side had a nuclear threat and the other doesn’t the world is a very different place. It’s a shame but it is what it is. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by kingantti1874

[Shanks said no]

5 minutes ago, sadj said:

Is there any specific Scottish coverage or just the general BBC one , I quite enjoyed BBC Scotlands one yesterday. 

BBC 1 Scotland from Noon

 

your result is due very soon

[Pasquale for King]

6 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

BBC news channel has had coverage since 10am this morning

Not specifically Scottish, not really bothered about English councils are you?  They both finished last night before the days results were in. FF has given us a better breakdown on here so far. 

[kingantti1874]

6 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Any future Scexit vote will need to be subject to a confirmatory referendum too, based on a negotiated deal with rUK. That way, rather than being presented with a White Paper wish list, most of which has now been proved to be a combination of distortion, half-truths and one-sided aims, the people will know the economic and social reality of separation.  Most democrats would surely agree?

100%. 
 

The white paper in 2014 was complete nonsense but I seems some of those fantasies live on to this day.  I mean on this thread we’ve seen chat such as “we should set up our own currency” I mean for god sake. This is the level of mis-information people are talking about. A complete fantasy. 

[Shanks said no]

Crunched the numbers again with the Lothian list results in so far, think I have calculated correctly this time. On current figures it would be 

TORY - GREEN - TORY - LAB - GREEN - TORY - LIB

Only change is LAB to LIB

However that's only using a 3rd of the data and gets very tight for final seats. SNP cannot win a list seat in Lothians

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, sadj said:

Very good post 👍🏻 The currency question is quite straightforward. There is only really three options. Which you have touched on. For the UK saying na you can’t have the pound. That to me was a big thing last time around as those who are not overly clued up thought theyd wake up the morning after a yes vote and have no money because the pound would have been removed.

 

Im dubious of we would get independence as the number of people clued up enough in that volatile voting area is not imo that high , social media is such a big part of things nowadays. We saw that woth the pandemic - 5g gives you Covid - Spreads like wildfire and its taken as a truth by some. In a vote for independence any negative things posted on social media can and will get more engagement than it maybe deserves. Its a simple way to cause confusion and cause fear and that is the big problem with any vote nowadays. the immigration question at brexit which was front and centre was pushed as these people are stealing your money and jobs. That was flying around social media and people in less affluent areas. Its caused a division since imo too. It 💯 to me

distracted from the real issues that Brexit should have been fought on. 
 

Sorry for ranting

They can’t stop anyone using the pound, we have our own notes that can be used, or our own currency pegged to the pound for a period of time which is the most likely outcome. 
https://commonweal.scot/library/how-to-launch-a-scottish-currency/

[Pasquale for King]

12 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Urging people to use both votes SNP makes me question the parties committment to independence rather than to themselves a little.

 

Now is the time to deliver independence. If it doesn't happen after the cluster of Brexit it will never happen. I like Nicola but I do think it's time for fresh leadership to deliver their supposed goal.

I don’t think you’re supposed to advocate votes for another party, if it’s not a rule in general it’s a party rule. 

[Pasquale for King]

13 minutes ago, sadj said:

Is the Scottish stuff on any dedicated channel or is just BBC news and in and out of Scotland?

BBC1 at 12pm

[Pasquale for King]

4 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

100%. 
 

The white paper in 2014 was complete nonsense but I seems some of those fantasies live on to this day.  I mean on this thread we’ve seen chat such as “we should set up our own currency” I mean for god sake. This is the level of mis-information people are talking about. A complete fantasy. 

Hahahahaha so we can’t set up our own currency? I’ve just been listening to economists and experts talking rubbish all these years when I should’ve asked you?

[sadj]

6 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

BBC 1 Scotland from Noon

 

your result is due very soon

I still think its a little bit too far for Fergus. 
 

[Mikey1874]

10 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Crunched the numbers again with the Lothian list results in so far, think I have calculated correctly this time. On current figures it would be 

TORY - GREEN - TORY - LAB - GREEN - TORY - LIB

Only change is LAB to LIB

However that's only using a 3rd of the data and gets very tight for final seats. SNP cannot win a list seat in Lothians

 

Angus Robertson winning Edinburgh Central is therefore a net gain. 

[Swahili Jambo]

Man, this is so ****in tedious.  Hearts are Edinburgh, with a Saltire on our crest.  Proud and Proud x 2.

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Hahahahaha so we can’t set up our own currency? I’ve just been listening to economists and experts talking rubbish all these years when I should’ve asked you?

 

Better just to wait to get the Euro surely. 

[Mikey1874]

Just now, Swahili Jambo said:

Man, this is so ****in tedious.  Hearts are Edinburgh, with a Saltire on our crest.  Proud and Proud x 2.

 

An argument for overnight counting. 

[Pasquale for King]

Just now, Mikey1874 said:

 

Better just to wait to get the Euro surely. 

We need our own currency and who knows if we will even join the EU or what state it will be in. 

[Norm]

17 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

 

 

So in a world where it is very clear the Russians are being increasingly aggressive to the point where they have developed a new nuclear weapon capable of destroying an area the size of Texas, and various rogue unstable states seeking to arm themselves we leave ourselves with no threat so we can pay for free bus passes and bikes ? 

 

it would be great if we could rid the world of nuclear weapons, sadly we cannot put the cork back in that bottle so therefore mutually assured destruction strategy is as valid today as it was 40 years ago - if one side had a nuclear threat and the other doesn’t the world is a very different place. It’s a shame but it is what it is. 

It doesn't seem to hurt most of the 180+ countries that don't have a nuclear arsenal, to be fair. 

[Taffin]

16 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

I don’t think you’re supposed to advocate votes for another party, if it’s not a rule in general it’s a party rule. 

 

Some things are best left unsaid in that case.

[Nucky Thompson]

4 minutes ago, Swahili Jambo said:

Man, this is so ****in tedious.  Hearts are Edinburgh, with a Saltire on our crest.  Proud and Proud x 2.

Hearts are a Scottish team, what's your point?

Are you saying that the Saltire belongs to the SNP?

Maybe the Red Dragon belongs to Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour can't use it 

[Pasquale for King]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

Some things are best left unsaid in that case.

I can see both sides, it’s an argument that will continue as you can never guarantee what will happen. That’s the system put in place by the Tories to initially stop Labour getting a majority. 

[Pasquale for King]

SNP win Aberdeenshire East, Tories up 11% Lib Dem’s down 11%. Nice try guys 😆. 

[Mikey1874]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

SNP win Aberdeenshire East, Tories up 11% Lib Dem’s down 11%. Nice try guys 😆. 

 

SNP hold. 

 

Aberdeenshire West is the one to watch.. 

[Shanks said no]

Professor Ailsa Henderson, back on today, good to see.

 

 

[Pasquale for King]

Just now, Mikey1874 said:

 

SNP hold. 

 

Aberdeenshire West is the one to watch.. 

They lost 1% to Labour, imagine if they backed Independence. 
Fergus Mutch to make up those 900 votes or will unionists win the day by all voting together again? 

[JudyJudyJudy]

41 minutes ago, sadj said:

Very good post 👍🏻 The currency question is quite straightforward. There is only really three options. Which you have touched on. For the UK saying na you can’t have the pound. That to me was a big thing last time around as those who are not overly clued up thought theyd wake up the morning after a yes vote and have no money because the pound would have been removed.

 

Im dubious of we would get independence as the number of people clued up enough in that volatile voting area is not imo that high , social media is such a big part of things nowadays. We saw that woth the pandemic - 5g gives you Covid - Spreads like wildfire and its taken as a truth by some. In a vote for independence any negative things posted on social media can and will get more engagement than it maybe deserves. Its a simple way to cause confusion and cause fear and that is the big problem with any vote nowadays. the immigration question at brexit which was front and centre was pushed as these people are stealing your money and jobs. That was flying around social media and people in less affluent areas. Its caused a division since imo too. It 💯 to me

distracted from the real issues that Brexit should have been fought on. 
 

Sorry for ranting

Good post 

41 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Urging people to use both votes SNP makes me question the parties committment to independence rather than to themselves a little.

 

Now is the time to deliver independence. If it doesn't happen after the cluster of Brexit it will never happen. I like Nicola but I do think it's time for fresh leadership to deliver their supposed goal.

Agreed 

40 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Any future Scexit vote will need to be subject to a confirmatory referendum too, based on a negotiated deal with rUK. That way, rather than being presented with a White Paper wish list, most of which has now been proved to be a combination of distortion, half-truths and one-sided aims, the people will know the economic and social reality of separation.  Most democrats would surely agree?

Yep 

34 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

 

 

So in a world where it is very clear the Russians are being increasingly aggressive to the point where they have developed a new nuclear weapon capable of destroying an area the size of Texas, and various rogue unstable states seeking to arm themselves we leave ourselves with no threat so we can pay for free bus passes and bikes ? 

 

it would be great if we could rid the world of nuclear weapons, sadly we cannot put the cork back in that bottle so therefore mutually assured destruction strategy is as valid today as it was 40 years ago - if one side had a nuclear threat and the other doesn’t the world is a very different place. It’s a shame but it is what it is. 

I know it’s mutually assured destruction , it’s just very depressing wasting all that money really to just kill us all really . 

[sadj]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

SNP hold. 

 

Aberdeenshire West is the one to watch.. 

Will be a Burnett hold , id imagine a slight increase in majority

[sadj]

2 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Professor Ailsa Henderson, back on today, good to see.

 

 

Didn’t enjoy her yesterday seemed to be pulling info out her arse rather than analysing it. Very good analysis today. The swing being linked to 40> or >40 was very interesting

1 minute ago, BarneyBattles said:

Mundell ‘anticipating a SNP majority’. 

Away with the fairies 

[Konrad von Carstein]

45 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Any future Scexit vote will need to be subject to a confirmatory referendum too, based on a negotiated deal with rUK. That way, rather than being presented with a White Paper wish list, most of which has now been proved to be a combination of distortion, half-truths and one-sided aims, the people will know the economic and social reality of separation.  Most democrats would surely agree?

Fish ain't biting Enzo my dear chap.

[Footballfirst]

1 hour ago, pablo said:

Assuming nothing significant happens during the lifetime of the next Parliament, it looks like Tactical voting could play a major role in 5 years time.

 

Separatists appear to be waking up to both votes SNP being a waste and with a credible second party in the regional, they could get the super majority.

 

Pro UK voters will have seen that with a bit of organisation between the split support, putting country before party could easily skittle dozens of SNP constituencies.

 

Could be very interesting.

I'm not so sure about tactical voting having a major role next time round.

 

We have already seen it happen in constituencies in the Banff, Aberdeenshire East, NE Fife and in Edinburgh West with parties +/- 10% on the previous election results and lesser amounts in other seats.   It is difficult to see where additional tactical votes would come from to "skittle dozens of SNP constituencies".

 

There can't be too many more Tory/Labour voters left who are prepared to vote completely against their conscience and put an X beside Labour/Tory on the ballot paper.

 

If that looked to be a successful strategy, then a counter policy would be for the SNP to only stand in the constituency seats, but ask their voters to vote for the Greens on the list.  Such a move could see the Greens get 20 or more list seats and a supermajority for independence. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Footballfirst

[sadj]

Another SNP hold massive Labour to Tory swing in Aberdeenshire South

[Pasquale for King]

6 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I'm not so sure about tactical voting having a major role next time round.

 

We have already seen it happen in constituencies in the Banff, NE Fife and in Edinburgh West with parties +/- 10% on the previous election results and lesser amounts in other seats.   It is difficult to see where additional tactical votes would come from to "skittle dozens of SNP constituencies".

 

There can't be too many Tory/Labour voters left who are prepared to vote completely against their conscience and put an X beside Labour/Tory on the ballot paper.

 

If that looked to be a successful strategy then a counter policy, would be for the SNP to only stand in the constituency seats, but ask their voters to vote for the Greens on the list.  Such a move could see the Greens get 20 or more list seats and a supermajority for independence. 

There’s been a few that show unionists voting to keep the SNP out. It’s happened in Edinburgh South and Southern since the referendum. Bailie got a 6% increase whilst the the tories lost 6% for instance.Carlaw with 10.5% swing from Labour, Mundell a 12% swing from Labour. All kept their seats because of this. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Pasquale for King

[Nucky Thompson]

Just now, sadj said:

Another SNP hold massive Labour to Tory swing in Aberdeenshire South

Not enough of a swing to pull it off for the Tories

[sadj]

Looking at all these massive swings from Cons to Labour how much is tactical voting and how much is genuine movement to the Tories due to the lack of direction and lack of leadership of the Labour party. There is 💯 a swing across England that can’t be linked to any constitutional issues and its now being replicated up here. 

[Boof]

At which point does a natural Labour voter who persistently votes Tory to try to maintain a Tory-dominated (for the foreseeable future) union actually become just a Tory voter?

[sadj]

2 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Not enough of a swing to pull it off for the Tories

Still a huge swing though. Quite a few double digit swings hence my

previous post and question 👍🏻 Can’t all

be tactical. Labour are such a shambles

[Boab]

4 minutes ago, Boof said:

At which point does a natural Labour voter who persistently votes Tory to try to maintain a Tory-dominated (for the foreseeable future) union actually become just a Tory voter?

When they put an X next to Tory. 

[Boof]

Just now, Boab said:

When they put an X next to Tory. 

 

I suppose I meant a habitual Tory voter.

 

Is the Labour Party a deid duck?

 

Any possibility of recovery?

[Footballfirst]

2 minutes ago, sadj said:

Still a huge swing though. Quite a few double digit swings hence my

previous post and question 👍🏻 Can’t all

be tactical. Labour are such a shambles

The reality is that tactical voting is the last resort for voters who support losing parties, in what would otherwise be "safe" seats.  The proponents of tactical voting would view such a vote for the party you actually support as being a wasted vote.  

 

The "safe" seat scenario, particularly in Westminster, sees millions of "wasted votes" for parties that have no hope of being elected. 

 

A fully proportional representational system is the only way that every vote counts and allows people to vote for what they believe in, and not for the least objectionable candidate of another party.

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, sadj said:

Looking at all these massive swings from Cons to Labour how much is tactical voting and how much is genuine movement to the Tories due to the lack of direction and lack of leadership of the Labour party. There is 💯 a swing across England that can’t be linked to any constitutional issues and its now being replicated up here. 

Spot on, it happened here when they lost voters to the SNP and they’re now so bad they’re losing them to the Tories. I think the party will break up in the next few years, the Scottish version will need a revamp after independence anyway. 

[Pasquale for King]

5 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

I suppose I meant a habitual Tory voter.

 

Is the Labour Party a deid duck?

 

Any possibility of recovery?

Can’t see it, if they can’t do against this disgusting Tory government when will they?

[sadj]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Spot on, it happened here when they lost voters to the SNP and they’re now so bad they’re losing them to the Tories. I think the party will break up in the next few years, the Scottish version will need a revamp after independence anyway. 

I think they need radical change or they are dead in the water

 

4 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The reality is that tactical voting is the last resort for voters who support losing parties, in what would otherwise be "safe" seats.  The proponents of tactical voting would view such a vote for the party you actually support as being a wasted vote.  

 

The "safe" seat scenario, particularly in Westminster, sees millions of "wasted votes" for parties that have no hope of being elected. 

 

A fully proportional representational system is the only way that every vote counts and allows people to vote for what they believe in, and not for the least objectionable candidate of another party.

 

💯 its a last resort but how much of these votes are people who have migrated to Tory and how many are lending their vote

 

8 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

I suppose I meant a habitual Tory voter.

 

Is the Labour Party a deid duck?

 

Any possibility of recovery?

I can’t see it without radical change in the party as I said above

[Jambo dans les Pyrenees]

1 hour ago, sadj said:

Is there any specific Scottish coverage or just the general BBC one , I quite enjoyed BBC Scotlands one yesterday. 

 

Anne Lundon doing the Gaelic version.

 

I don't speak Gaelic.  I don't have a clue who has voted for who.  I don't care.

[sadj]

SNP Hold Dundee East and Soth Renfrewshire

 

Continue to see Labour n Tory swap votes and SNP being up 1% up across the constituencies

[sadj]

Just now, Queensland Jambo said:

 

Anne Lundon doing the Gaelic version.

 

I don't speak Gaelic.  I don't have a clue who has voted for who.  I don't care.

🤣

[dobmisterdobster]

12 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Spot on, it happened here when they lost voters to the SNP and they’re now so bad they’re losing them to the Tories. I think the party will break up in the next few years, the Scottish version will need a revamp after independence anyway. 

 

They won't break up, they would lose their Trade Union slush fund.

[Cruyff]

17 minutes ago, Queensland Jambo said:

 

Anne Lundon doing the Gaelic version.

 

I don't speak Gaelic.  I don't have a clue who has voted for who.  I don't care.

She's lovely like. 

[Cruyff]

4 minutes ago, Barack said:

 

Should've got this boy:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That takes me back to my childhood. Swear I could understand everything they said as Gaelic kids TV was all that was on during the day. 

[Cruyff]

Just now, Barack said:

Also, @Cruyff what you are saying definitely had an element of truth in it, as a kid. It's why as we got older, we understood every word of this:

 

 

 defo, all that Padraig Post taught me the lingo. 

[Footballfirst]

Aberdeen East List vote (Salmond's list)

 

Aberdeenshire East (North East) List Vote:

Con ~ 15112 (36.8%, +6.1)

SNP ~ 14873 (36.2%, -7.4)

Lab ~ 3092 (7.5%, +1.1)

Lib Dem ~ 3007 (7.3%, -4.4)

Grn ~ 2326 (5.7%, +1.6)

Alba ~ 1235 (3%, +3)

AFU ~ 284 (0.7%, +0.7)

Others ~ 1143 (2.8%, -0.8)

[sadj]

12 minutes ago, Barack said:

 

Should've got this boy:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was discussing the fact the Welsh seats are announced in Welsh and English but no seats up here seem to be announced in Gaelic and English