SPFL and Covid ( Leagues 1 and 2 to restart )

[Mundaydog]

1 minute ago, Biko said:

Could always not cash the cheque we get from certain clubs. 

If we do receive compensation based on the dodgy Dundee vote, I would hope that a number of clubs who did vote for reconstruction are able to take their own case to the SPFL/SFA and demand why their potential share of payouts over the next few years are to be reduced. Why should those clubs suffer when they decided in March to 'do no harm' to fellow clubs.

[JimmyCant]

Just now, SectionDJambo said:

Is it not the case that we had to inform them that a consequence of us preventing our demotion, would be them not being able to be promoted under the current league arrangements?  As in there wouldn’t be any room for them. 
That’s a subtle difference from saying we want to stop their promotion, just in my opinion.

The wording of our petition is along the lines of 'remove promotion and relegation from the resolution'  I dont think its really neccessary for us to even mention stopping promotion. Its caused more bad feeling than there needed to be. Its no skin off our nose if ourselves AND Dundee Utd are in the Premiership. Thats an issue the SPFL board would need to fix. 13 teams or 14 teams or 12 teams. We dont surely care as long as we are one of them and its not our problem to fix.

[Lone Striker]

5 minutes ago, SectionDJambo said:

Hearts should track the progress of these Dundee United fans who are walking. It won't be 18 hours unless they are using skateboards.

Anyway, it could turn things round a fair bit, if Hearts actually gave these guys a good welcome, take them inside, and put our case to them. This would include emphasising that we have no desire to stop their promotion, only our demotion. That the problem lies with too many clubs, including their own, not giving a hoot about the financial damage such an arbitrary decision of demoting 3 clubs, who just happened to be bottom of their divisions at the wrong time, with a fifth of the season still to play. 

Maybe a goodwill gesture and narrative from our side of the dispute, would help show them, and others, that we and Partick are not the bad guys here. That we are actually the wronged party in this sorry affair.

Nice gesture ... it would certainly wrong-foot them a bit if Ann turned up on the Plaza and gave them a good reception.    Social distancing from 2  sweaty Dundee men  should be increased to 5 metres though. 😜

 

  

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

20 minutes ago, JimmyCant said:

We'll not be compensated for fanciful things like losing out on the Champions league group stages. We'll be looking for compensation for loss of prize money, loss of TV money. Loss of sponsorship money. Loss of gate revenue (excluding loos solely to to no crowds Covid) Loss of actual home fixtures ( from 18 guaranteed to 13 guaranteed) Loss of hospitality revenue. Loss of players and coaching staff through relegation clauses. A whole raft of other real, reasonable and legitimate things without inventing that we've lost out on Champions League cash. That would be rightly laughed off. We'll get what we can reasonably account for as lost. Nothing more and probably quite a bit less.

Maybe knock the ‘loss of players through relegation clause’ out of that list. Virtually every departure from Tynecastle this summer is a bonus.

[JimmyCant]

1 minute ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Maybe knock the ‘loss of players through relegation clause’ out of that list. Virtually every departure from Tynecastle this summer is a bonus.

We could claim petrol money for driving them wherever they want to be that isn't here 🤪

[Hector Riva]

22 minutes ago, SectionDJambo said:

Hearts should track the progress of these Dundee United fans who are walking. It won't be 18 hours unless they are using skateboards.

Anyway, it could turn things round a fair bit, if Hearts actually gave these guys a good welcome, take them inside, and put our case to them. This would include emphasising that we have no desire to stop their promotion, only our demotion. That the problem lies with too many clubs, including their own, not giving a hoot about the financial damage such an arbitrary decision of demoting 3 clubs, who just happened to be bottom of their divisions at the wrong time, with a fifth of the season still to play. 

Maybe a goodwill gesture and narrative from our side of the dispute, would help show them, and others, that we and Partick are not the bad guys here. That we are actually the wronged party in this sorry affair.

Yeah.  

[Hashimoto]

33 minutes ago, Shanks said:

Think they are in for a shock if they are expecting a huge travelling Hearts crowd.  Normally a game I would love to go to but there is zero percent chance I will ever step foot in their shithole stadium again. 

On top of that all the wee local businesses take a big hit.....Boozers and clubs will certainly be a lot quieter without a big away support. Profits well down in an already struggling market. Something I'm sure the local business community will not be happy about.

Fek em.....Hearts Only!

[wavydavy]

1 hour ago, SectionDJambo said:

The clubs must, surely, be wary of giving the puppet, Doncaster, that kind of power. It would be far more sensible to have definate, pre determined outcomes, for the eventuality of the league being suspended, by the government only, depending on how many games had been played. They cannot give him, and his master, the power to decide the fate of any club, regardless of when a season had been suspended and the prospects for restarting. 

Maybe the wee clubs are waking up to the realisation that they are only useful to Doncaster when it suits him and his master. Stenhousemuir are kicking up a fuss about the old firm match being scheduled for the same weekend as they would start playing. Saying it will take away the publicity of the lower leagues returning to playing, when they would be desperate for a good response in attracting spectators, should they be allowed by then. They must have thought they were important to Doncaster for a wee while. Now they know their place again. 

Neil Lennon wants the first old firm game delayed for allowing spectators into Parkhead. He's not bothered about the likes of Stenhousemuir, if it's not to help Celtic.

 

There are many clubs that seem to vote for whatever he wants. There are a lot of Chairmen/Owners of clubs out there who seem to be in awe of Doncatser and his Board and have no ambition for their little clubs and that is why they will always be little clubs assuming they can survive this whole debacle.

 

If they don't then the blame can only be directed at themselves and not at us and Partick.

 

We will find out soon enough.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

2 minutes ago, mutley said:

The little fat one has said **** Hearts, **** Budge and **** Tom English on his Twitter. So I’ll probably just settle for throwing stuff at them if I see them walking by 😂

Aye, let’s organising a welcoming committee and give them a shoeing when they get to Tynecastle

[1874robbo]

Hope it pisses down all the way for the pair of pricks 

[Mikey1874]

2 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

There are many clubs that seem to vote for whatever he wants. There are a lot of Chairmen/Owners of clubs out there who seem to be in awe of Doncatser and his Board and have no ambition for their little clubs and that is why they will always be little clubs assuming they can survive this whole debacle.

 

If they don't then the blame can only be directed at themselves and not at us and Partick.

 

We will find out soon enough.

 

If everyone is acting in self interest and clubs have chosen to allow this way of doing things to fester - then you really can't complain if you become the loser. 

[colinmaroon]

23 minutes ago, TypoonJambo said:

Thats the bit im uncomfortable with. 

 

 

Simples!  We would find a way of refunding them.

 

 

[1971fozzy]

1 hour ago, Hungry hippo said:

Fair play to the guys fundraising. Seem to be doing it in a positive way and nothing wrong with fans backing their club.

absolutely however the fact they are walking to Tynecastle is nothing short of sinister and troublemaking.

walk anywhere else but to walk to the ground of a team your in the middle of a shitstorm with is irresponsible and inflammatory 

[Weebroon98]

9 minutes ago, mutley said:

The little fat one has said **** Hearts, **** Budge and **** Tom English on his Twitter. So I’ll probably just settle for throwing stuff at them if I see them walking by 😂

They should not be allowed anywhere near Tynecastle 

[Jim Panzee]

7 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Aye, let’s organising a welcoming committee and give them a shoeing when they get to Tynecastle

they're clearly seeking  attention...........best thing to do is deny them that attention.

[wavydavy]

1 hour ago, tcjambo said:

Read the comments of Prof Carl Friston - second wave would be minor, most likely Jan next year - 7000 deaths.

 

I have read loads of other comments and specific warning from WHO and they seem to disagree.

 

This is a quote from Friston from the Guardian.

 

What do your models say about the risk of a second wave?
The models support the idea that what happens in the next few weeks is not going to have a great impact in terms of triggering a rebound – because the population is protected to some extent by immunity acquired during the first wave. The real worry is that a second wave could erupt some months down the line when that immunity wears off. We can test a range of hypotheses, based on a very short duration of immunity – as with a common cold – right through to immunity that lasts for decades. For each duration we can calculate the probability that a second wave will emerge, and when. It’s early days for this work, and I look forward with genuine excitement to new data on immunity becoming available, now that reliable antibody tests exist. But the important message is that we have a window of opportunity now, to get test-and-trace protocols in place ahead of that putative second wave. If these are implemented coherently, we could potentially defer that wave beyond a time horizon where treatments or a vaccine become available, in a way that we weren’t able to before the first one.

 

[King prawn]

 

 

[tcjambo]

6 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

I have read loads of other comments and specific warning from WHO and they seem to disagree.

 

This is a quote from Friston from the Guardian.

 

What do your models say about the risk of a second wave?
The models support the idea that what happens in the next few weeks is not going to have a great impact in terms of triggering a rebound – because the population is protected to some extent by immunity acquired during the first wave. The real worry is that a second wave could erupt some months down the line when that immunity wears off. We can test a range of hypotheses, based on a very short duration of immunity – as with a common cold – right through to immunity that lasts for decades. For each duration we can calculate the probability that a second wave will emerge, and when. It’s early days for this work, and I look forward with genuine excitement to new data on immunity becoming available, now that reliable antibody tests exist. But the important message is that we have a window of opportunity now, to get test-and-trace protocols in place ahead of that putative second wave. If these are implemented coherently, we could potentially defer that wave beyond a time horizon where treatments or a vaccine become available, in a way that we weren’t able to before the first one.

 

He clarified these comments on Newsnight and said that it would be in January and a likely maximum of 7000. We have to weigh all this up with the devastating effects on people's health and the economic tsumami we are going to have to negotiate in the coming months and years

Edited July 8, 2020 by tcjambo

[tcjambo]

1 minute ago, King prawn said:

 

 

Always good to have an intellectual comment on the situation lol

[jackal]

1 minute ago, King prawn said:

 

 

Oops, well there goes Andys warm welcome.

[Newton51]

If it turns out to be compensation we are awarded, it doesn't have to all come out of the first sky payment. Sure could be staggered across the season

[colinmaroon]

3 minutes ago, King prawn said:

 

 

 

 

To me that strengthens my belief that this is a provocative stunt.

 

 

The Sportsound comment beggars belief.  Must have listened only to the Craig and Elvis show.

 

Edited July 8, 2020 by colinmaroon

[Maroon tinted glasses 2]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Seem some of the fundraising. Good effort. These guys have made £10,000 so far.

 

 

 

I think the best outcome for this would be for Ann Budge and James Anderson (wearing Hearts scarfs) to greet them upon arrival and Ann offers them in for a spot of lunch and James has a partially written cheque for £50k asking if he should write it to Dundee United as part of the donation agreement or just make it straight out to Gerry Moynihan as that's where they pished it away to! 

[manaliveits105]

Guys a knob let’s cut the welcome crap

they won’t be 

[Spellczech]

3 hours ago, tynietigers said:

Yes but it won’t be judge on just one year 👍🏻

why not - we are talking about losing revenue vs last year? 

 

Surely there would be several aspects to this? Cost of cancelling contracts, sacking people, lost revenue from tickets, merchandising, corporates, sponsorhips, TV, prize money,  and that's just stuff off the top of my head...

[tynietigers]

2 hours ago, niblick1874 said:

 

So you know they are going to figure out how much money by going back 10 years. Where did you see or hear that? Hearts can't get into the Champions league if they are not in the top league. That is a fact. They will be going on facts.  

Sorry me bad of course they will account for this 😂 no they will not 🙄 when claiming for anything there has to be some sort of evidence that we would actually be losing out on something that has been previously met, don’t you think 🤔 

[Diadora Van Basten]

Instead of turning up at Tynecastle, they should be asking their owner why Dundee United voted against league reconstruction.
 

Pair of prats.

[Lone Striker]

1 hour ago, David McCaig said:

Fundamental of promotion/relegation after 38 games as per the rules you mean.

 

If we are to use a footballing analogy, Hearts are 10-0 up v Cowdenbeath and the floodlights fail plunging the ground into total darkness causing the match to be unfinished.  Do Hearts get the 3 points or is the Match abandoned?

This conflated use of the words "promotion" and "relegation" really annoys me (and probably everyone else on here).  Like that  QC last week defending the concept as being "meat and drink of football" - as if  the manouvre engineered by the SPFL through bribery  in April is the same thing.        

 

Apologies if you've already answered this on one of the preceding 1500 pages (!!)  .... but is there any legal reason (or even logical reason) why the C3 clubs are still intending to defend our petition at the Arbitration hearing ?    Surely their defence sits entirely alongside the success of the SPFL's defence ..... and  any change to their promotion sits entirely alongside a defeat for the SPFL's defence ?

 

I can't see what arguments or statements their QC could make which would sway the judges in a way which Moynihan's wouldn't.   Do they not trust the SPFL (or their defence arguments)  ?    Or have they (once again) been leaned on by Doncaster to spend more of  their own money just to make this look like a club v. club dispute, for which I thought Lord Clark's comments implied that he was satisfied it  wasn't  ?

 

I'm genuinely baffled.

[graygo]

5 hours ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

I think we are hoping for arbitration to open up all the dirty deeds, BUT I think Calpol 3 won't get the funds and they will withdraw leaving us the winner by default. The SPFL can say they would have won had the Calpol 3 had the money to contest, so no one won and Hearts / Partick are still the bad boys.

We may well get what we want but the bad feeling won't go away and we need to treat the rest of the league ( with a few exceptions ) with disdain.

 

4 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Just for avoidance of doubt. 1st prize is we get reinstated, 2nd Prize is compensation.

If the Calpol 3 contests it, here are the outcomes:

1.       We win re-instatement, The Calpol 3 pay for that privilege by all legal fees,  £300k No calpol 3

2.       We win compensation to the max, The Calpol 3 pay the legal fees, and 40 clubs have to find £250k each, 4 clubs left in the league!  That’s a whopping £350k per Calp?

3.       We win 50% compensation,  The Calpol 3 pay the legal fees, and 40 clubs have to find £125k each, 10 clubs left in the league!,  

4.       We win 20% compensation,  The Calpol 3 pay the legal fees, and 40 clubs have to find £50k each, 20 clubs left in the league?

5.       We lose outright we lose, we play Championship football

If the Calpol 3 Don’t contest it here are the outcomes:

1.       We win re-instatement, all clubs pay for that  privilege by all legal fees,  £8k each

2.       We win compensation to the max, 40 clubs have to find £257k each, 4 clubs left in the league!,  

3.       We win 50% compensation,  40 clubs have to find £132k each, 10 clubs left in the league!,  

4.       We win 20% compensation,  40 clubs have to find £57k each, 20 clubs left in the league?

5.       We lose outright can’t happen, its uncontested.

For clarity, 1st prize is the best option for us and the league, 2nd Prize is ruinous but the courts won’t care, emotion is out of it, it’s just business, we have to go with the cost that’s best for us, and we have to ensure that it covers 2 seasons, as the league will vote to keep us out, We need that insurance policy.  The Calpol 3 have to win outright, or its just Cove the Calpol 1.  Its down to the clubs to keep themselves afloat, they had the chance for reconstruction what did they think would happen , and the courts cant go for what might happen, they will apply the letter of the law

 

Am I missing something here?

 

Why would the case be uncontested if the "Calpol 3" pull out?

 

The SPFL are defendants.

[Gordon Ramsay]

17 minutes ago, King prawn said:

 

 

 

As expected, thick as mince and no ability to write a proper sentence. Hope it pisses down the whole way, they get the worst blisters imaginable and get a nice friendly welcome at Tynecastle. Morons. 

[Jambo-Fox]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Questions - Who is paying the SPFL’s legal costs? Doncaster repeatedly states that all the income generated - after the costs of running the league are deducted - is paid to the clubs. If the legal costs are seen as part of the costs of running the league, is that acceptable to the clubs? There would never normally be legal costs of this nature involved therefore surely the clubs themselves would want some input? I would hate to think that the SPFL has roped DU/RR/CR into responding to this petition to spread the liability of legal costs. The SPFL should be putting DU/RR/CR argument over as part of their overall argument. It would appear that they are being roped into the arbitration to basically tell the panel the same as they told Lord Clarke i.e. we’ve spent money trying to get promoted. That argument can surely be presented by the SPFL in documentary form, the same as most other evidence will be presented?

I’d expect the SPFL costs to come out of the ‘central pot’ so every club will fund it through a reduction in their income. (The same for the Deloitte investigation)

 

The ‘gang of 3’ will pay all their own costs. (NB their costs might be relatively low if the just make minimal representation eg written input)

 

And Hearts & PT costs will be split 50:50 between the SPFL & the ‘gang of 3’ as directed by the panel once the case is won!

 

And sadly any severance package that Doncaster negotiates in resignation will also come out of the ‘central pot’!

[Beast Boy]

21 minutes ago, King prawn said:

 

 

Reckon the fat ******* would have a heart attack if tried to do that much ****ing.

[Newton51]

Covid testing once a week for players now

 

 

[Dazo]

8 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

 

Am I missing something here?

 

Why would the case be uncontested if the "Calpol 3" pull out?

 

The SPFL are defendants.

I don’t think you are, presumably people think the SPFL will fold if those 3 pull out. Not a view I share I think they will defend this to the death. 

[Super_Hans]

Looks like Andy might be require a police escort from Fife to Gorgie.

 

That's the fundraising money gone.

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 hours ago, Rods said:

After RR  statement I am now more confident of getting compensation. 

 

I still believe that the fundamentals of football which are promotion and relegation will be upheld but the compensation we could get will be huge. 

 

 

Voting teams into and out of leagues is hardly a fundamental of football. 

 

 

[Brave Hearts]

3 hours ago, Heartsmad1874 said:

 

It’s not being determined on football, it’s being determined on company law - whether the SPFL have broken any law and whether the clubs have voted for Hearts and Partick to be relegated in a manner which was prejudiced against them. 

 

“It’s all in company law, not really anything about the rights and wrongs football wise, it’s a question of did we as SPFL shareholders vote in a prejudiced way .

 

“Hearts and Partick’s QC has asked for a whole lot of documentary evidence about decisions that were made going right back to the first resolution when 81 percent of clubs agreed the league should finish. 

 

“The main thing they will get at is the SPFL and the Dundee vote and whether that was legal or not which could affect our position. 
 

 

 

 

so he is saying he doesn’t care if the dundee vote was legal or illegal, as long as they get promoted.

 

that shows his level of ethics and morals 

 

yet he is now squealing like a pig as he now deems it would be unfair to him if his club doesn’t get promoted because the vote is found to be illegal 

 

 

[graygo]

1 minute ago, Dazo said:

I don’t think you are, presumably people think the SPFL will fold if those 3 pull out. Not a view I share I think they will defend this to the death. 

 

👍

 

I agree, although if they pulled out you would think that the SPFL would consult the other clubs to see if the appetite to continue was still there.

[Dirty Deeds]

50/50 chance on a £10 million claim.

 

Surely someone at the SPFL or at one of the clubs is trying to broker a deal and remove the risk?

 

Still time for reconstruction?

[HMFC01]

Yeah, it appears that statement is unscrupulously founded.  The amount of wisdom coming from those 3 surely is wrong.  I am reading that clubs are supporting them financially or are willing, from the record again.

[wavydavy]

31 minutes ago, King prawn said:

 

 

 

Seems like a nice chap. 

[Dallas Green]

I'd say marching towards Tynecastle after posting that previous stuff isn't the wisest thing to do.

 

Surely Police Scotland wouldn't look too kindly towards it. Man is abusive on social media, in an attempt to raise money to help with legal action for his club, he is going to march towards the home of the club that his club are in a legal dispute with. Provocative. 

[RENE]

11 minutes ago, Jambo-Fox said:

I’d expect the SPFL costs to come out of the ‘central pot’ so every club will fund it through a reduction in their income. (The same for the Deloitte investigation)

 

The ‘gang of 3’ will pay all their own costs. (NB their costs might be relatively low if the just make minimal representation eg written input)

 

And Hearts & PT costs will be split 50:50 between the SPFL & the ‘gang of 3’ as directed by the panel once the case is won!

 

And sadly any severance package that Doncaster negotiates in resignation will also come out of the ‘central pot’!

 

Why would Deloitte's bill be split between clubs?   No club was asked  whether they wanted it done. They didn't  know until McLennan opened his mouth.

[manaliveits105]

Ginger hair is unacceptable

[wavydavy]

34 minutes ago, tcjambo said:

He clarified these comments on Newsnight and said that it would be in January and a likely maximum of 7000. We have to weigh all this up with the devastating effects on people's health and the economic tsumami we are going to have to negotiate in the coming months and years

 

I will believe it when I see it assuming I don't catch it myslef and pop my clogs. 😍

Edited July 8, 2020 by wavydavy

[SMJ_1874]

Leslie Deans has asked me to post his final comments on jkb due to the backlash and sustained criticism posted by fellow members when the information, received and posted in good faith, has turned out to be incorrect. This basically comes down to the underhand tactics adopted by chairman when saying they’ll act one way but in fact act the complete opposite. There is no legislation that covers this. We all have the clubs best interests at heart, yet some of the abuse levelled at certain posters has left a bad taste in the mouth when all one is trying to do is keep members informed of proceedings. As follows:- 

 

 I have reluctantly decided to refrain from making further detailed comment on Kickback about the ongoing litigation/arbitration. Certain posters clearly object to your posting my remarks and I regard their personal abuse as offensive.   Whilst I understand their frustration that the anticipated reconstruction never got off the ground ,the information provided to me was passed on in good faith. I was not the only one taken aback by the news that only 16 out of 42 clubs supported this. 
Like others of my generation, my mastery of technology is not the best so thank you for lodging my comments. I should also congratulate certain posters-- David McCaig, Footbalfirst, Ethan Hunt, Hibsarepants come to mind amongst others, -- who continue to offer incisive and insightful comment on complex issues
I stated publicly on BBC radio that I believed we had a good case.   David Thomson QC explained clearly in his opinion on Patrick Thistle 's website that the motion of April 10 had failed. He was clear in his view of the Dundee vote. 
Additionally the SPFL executive induced its members to vote in a certain way by virtue of its misrepresentation and withholding of relevant information in its advice paper of April 8. 
What follows is whether Hearts and PT suffered unfair prejudice as defined in the Companies Act. I believe they did. To change the rules from a 38 to a 30 game season part way through is inherently unfair if it leads to relegation , as admitted by at least one SPFL director. 
The prejudice is the major loss of income suffered by being in a lower and shortened league. 
With unfair prejudice established I anticipate the tribunal should  find in favour of Hearts and PT. 
The tribunal should comprise 3 experienced independent lawyers and I have no qualms or concerns that we will get a fair hearing. Any manifest legal errors will mean it's referred back to Lord Clark. 
Others have said, rightly in my opinion, that there will be bad blood between clubs going forward.  I hope in the fullness of time others might recognise that we fought for what is right and if changes are  then made as a result , there could be a major benefit to football as a whole.

 

Les Deans 

[Jambo-Fox]

2 minutes ago, RENE said:

 

Why would Deloitte's bill be split between clubs?   No club was asked  whether they wanted it done. They didn't  know until McLennan opened his mouth.

SPFL paid for it and the clubs fund the SPFL!

 

You do raise an interesting point on what level of authority that the SPFL Chairman, CEO & Board actually have, on both type of expenditure and level of expenditure.

[jamboinglasgow]

I see the Raith Chairman is saying they have been given financial help by other SPFL clubs for the legal fees. After that there is no other way you can view the actions of other SPFL clubs except personally.

 

Hearts and Partick get relegated, empty words about sympathy for how tough this is for the two (and Stranraer) but lets move forward. No a single thing done to try and help them, any chance to help is chucked out by most. Talk of us "taking our medicine," we must not moan about it because we deserved to go down.

 

Dundee United, Raith Rovers and Cove Rangers. Clubs are backing them, now giving financial support, clubs disscuss chucking Hearts and Partick out of the league. Hearts and Partick are seen as the ogres in this .

 

But of course none of this personal. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 hour ago, mutley said:

The little fat one has said **** Hearts, **** Budge and **** Tom English on his Twitter. So I’ll probably just settle for throwing stuff at them if I see them walking by 😂

 

I actually think the police should intercept these two arseholes while they are still in Fife and take them back to their shithole. If they get to Edinburgh some of our idiots will have a go at them (especially how ignorant the fat ***** is).  

[Seymour M Hersh]

50 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

I have read loads of other comments and specific warning from WHO and they seem to disagree.

 

This is a quote from Friston from the Guardian.

 

What do your models say about the risk of a second wave?
The models support the idea that what happens in the next few weeks is not going to have a great impact in terms of triggering a rebound – because the population is protected to some extent by immunity acquired during the first wave. The real worry is that a second wave could erupt some months down the line when that immunity wears off. We can test a range of hypotheses, based on a very short duration of immunity – as with a common cold – right through to immunity that lasts for decades. For each duration we can calculate the probability that a second wave will emerge, and when. It’s early days for this work, and I look forward with genuine excitement to new data on immunity becoming available, now that reliable antibody tests exist. But the important message is that we have a window of opportunity now, to get test-and-trace protocols in place ahead of that putative second wave. If these are implemented coherently, we could potentially defer that wave beyond a time horizon where treatments or a vaccine become available, in a way that we weren’t able to before the first one.

 

 

My advice to you, apart from taking all this shite to the shed, would be to stop reading the grauniad.