Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[ArcticJambo]

42 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Not really.  The increasing numbers are not enough to warrant the step up might be their thinking.  They're quite possibly still within the numbers befitting tier 3.  There are factors such as hospital provision,  etc.

 

Well a quick look at the 7-day average per 100k figures would suggest that since early Oct the numbers in most regions/health authorities have been trending downwards do varying degrees apart from yes, you guessed it, Glasgow City/Greater Glasgow & Clyde.  Same for deaths. 

 

The SG talks of suppressing the virus to avoid hospital admissions and ultimately deaths, yet they erred on the side of caution/optimism for Glasgow (and Lanarkshire) in their initial Tiers allocations.  Not sure that this notion of 'Well, we've got loads of beds and ICU units to deal with the serious cases here in GG&CHB, so we don't need to really get the virus under control as much' patter holding much credibility over a sustained period. Now is the time to do the right thing and lock down Glasgow properly for an extended time, that's if there's the true belief that their restrictions/lockdowns tiers system works, and also perhaps get a bit tougher on enforcement.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, ArcticJambo said:

 

Well a quick look at the 7-day average per 100k figures would suggest that since early Oct the numbers in most regions/health authorities have been trending downwards do varying degrees apart from yes, you guessed it, Glasgow City/Greater Glasgow & Clyde.  Same for deaths. 

 

The SG talks of suppressing the virus to avoid hospital admissions and ultimately deaths, yet they erred on the side of caution/optimism for Glasgow (and Lanarkshire) in their initial Tiers allocations.  Not sure that this notion of 'Well, we've got loads of beds and ICU units to deal with the serious cases here in GG&CHB, so we don't need to really get the virus under control as much' patter holding much credibility over a sustained period. Now is the time to do the right thing and lock down Glasgow properly for an extended time, that's if there's the true belief that their restrictions/lockdowns tiers system works, and also perhaps get a bit tougher on enforcement.

 

They'll move up if they don't get an improvement soon.  It's a basic principle that it takes a bit longer to reverse a wave from a higher prevalence.  It could very well be that the west is taking time to show improvement because of how widespread virus is/was.  But they wont avoid tier 4 forever.

[graygo]

2 hours ago, jonesy said:

Not surprised. It's not just Glaswegians. It's human nature for most people in northern European cultures - congregate, socialise, drink.

 

Closing the pubs was probably the daftest move of many throughout this farce. 

 

Correct, if pubs were never a thing and people just congregated in houses to drink and be merry then governments should be opening up places where people could socialise in a Covid-19 safe environment, a bit like the vast majority of pubs.

[coconut doug]

38 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

What's Glasgow's positive test number per 100,000 today? 

 

What was it when they were placed into level 3?

 

Why is it a shift to Tier 4 is looking imminent?

 

 

 

What's pertinent is the trend.   

 

That's the 30 day trend line for Glasgow from Travelling Tabby. If there is any direction of travel it is slightly downward. This is not significant IMO though and so it could be argued that Glasgow should be moved to tier 4. The trouble is though people who do not know how the decisions are made would be claiming Glasgow was being victimised because their infection rate was going down. They are using more than parameter for their decision making and tbh this is too difficult an idea for some.

[Darren]

2 hours ago, OmiyaHearts said:

I loved getting back out to pubs etc when lockdown was lifted and I can genuinely say, every pub I went in had a fantastic set up in terms of cleanliness and safety. Same with restaurants and cafes. I know the huge effort my wife put in to keep her café safe and secure (while at the same time taking and increase in abuse due to track and trace restrictions).

 

But the Schools and Uni's re-opened and everything went to pot, but instead of blaming education they sacrificed hospitality workers. 

 

It's the schools. It's so obvious, it's unreal that they kept them open.

 

I agree on the pubs in Glasgow. It seems obvious to me that the virus is being spread here through house gatherings and that the Glasgow Uni outbreak was the start of a spike in positive tests.

 

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

She proved as much when she locked down Aberdeen but didn’t do the same in Glasgow. 

 

Pubs in Aberdeen were closed because that's where the virus was being spread up there. Limitations were imposed on household gatherings in Glasgow, because that's where the virus was being spread through here.

 

35 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I'm not suggesting action. I'm suggesting that if you believe in the levels system and that upwards data changes require immediate action then surely you'd think Glasgow should go up a tier.

 

If nothing more can be done then it suggests Tier 4 doesn't actually exist 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

350 cases per 100,000 is the tipping point for going up to Tier 4, I think?

 

1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

Correct, if pubs were never a thing and people just congregated in houses to drink and be merry then governments should be opening up places where people could socialise in a Covid-19 safe environment, a bit like the vast majority of pubs.

 

Closing hospitality has been detrimental to tackling this virus, particularly in Glasgow.

[Samuel Camazzola]

4 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

Hopefully vaccines are on the way!! Then we can actually get out of this properly, back to the pub, no masks and back to the football.

No masks? This will upset a certain poster. 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, Samuel Camazzola said:

No masks? This will upset a certain poster. 

😂

[coconut doug]

8 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Could you please provide exact details on the other factors, and the formulae that they use to make the decision?  

 

Not difficult to understand, just to find.  

 

 

 

I think redjambo posted a link but i know from the briefings. 

[ArcticJambo]

@jonesy But in all seriousness, the West was in the wrong tier to begin with and it continues to be in the wrong tier to this day.  If the SG was serious about driving down the numbers then they needed to get after the worst of it and that  was the beating heart of this vile affliction spewing death to us all.

 

@coconut doug You'd be better looking att he SG's own website for the trends than that graphic for Dummies 101 you posted (not a go at you btw, just it doesn't really show anything useful). 

 

@Darren Is there any justification for the 350 per week per 100K published anywhere?  I mean why 350 and not 300.

 

I'm neither here nor there wrt the system employed tbh, whether it be open everything up or our present tiered restriction-based system, however if the SG is going to go with the one they've implemented then they really should try to make the most of it.  Can you imagine the amout of praise Glasgow would get.  :sweet:

[OmiyaHearts]

27 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

 

Well a quick look at the 7-day average per 100k figures would suggest that since early Oct the numbers in most regions/health authorities have been trending downwards do varying degrees apart from yes, you guessed it, Glasgow City/Greater Glasgow & Clyde.  Same for deaths. 

 

The SG talks of suppressing the virus to avoid hospital admissions and ultimately deaths, yet they erred on the side of caution/optimism for Glasgow (and Lanarkshire) in their initial Tiers allocations.  Not sure that this notion of 'Well, we've got loads of beds and ICU units to deal with the serious cases here in GG&CHB, so we don't need to really get the virus under control as much' patter holding much credibility over a sustained period. Now is the time to do the right thing and lock down Glasgow properly for an extended time, that's if there's the true belief that their restrictions/lockdowns tiers system works, and also perhaps get a bit tougher on enforcement.

I'm interested to know what you mean by this? I see people suggest it but everything is just about closed anyway.

Edited November 9, 2020 by OmiyaHearts

[GinRummy]

13 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Could you please provide exact details on the other factors, and the formulae that they use to make the decision?  

 

Not difficult to understand, just to find.  

 

 

It’s the biggest load of shite that’s come out of this whole thing. How anyone can pat Nicola on the back for this is beyond me. The debate isn’t that the tier system is working or not working it’s that it could never work in the first place. 

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, ArcticJambo said:

👍  Red, where specifically are you getting the 7-day/100K for regions?  I'd like to compare historical figures. Thanks.

 

From the link in my post (the SG's tableau). You can also get the data from the Travelling Tabby site. Let me know if you have any difficulties finding the data.

[Guest]

Toot the bugle

[ArcticJambo]

3 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

I'm interested to know what you mean by this? I see people suggest it but everything is just about closed anyway.

I read in the SG link posted by Red earlier, the restrictions placed on areas in Tier 4 were much like we experienced in March/April ... non essentials shops closed, otherwise not many other details tbqh. Said schools would remain open, which I agree with you is a problem, certainly for upper years I understand.  Not sure what influence contractors are having in transmission (we don't see the data) but there are a lot from the GG area that travel outwith on a daily/weekly basis, etc.

 

Think I mentioned earlier that perhaps teh authorities need to be a bit more blunt as well, though of course I can't see how that will at all easy.

 

Sturgeon today said that "We can't afford to simply allow the figures to plateau but rather we need them to drop" (slight paraphrasing if not verbatim).  Glasgow's figures aren't dropping unfortunately.  I don't doubt she'll give it more time however, she's set it up that way.  Ohhwell!

[ArcticJambo]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

From the link in my post (the SG's tableau). You can also get the data from the Travelling Tabby site. Let me know if you have any difficulties finding the data.

Got it eventually thanks, well roughly (drop down menus) though I couldn't locate your actual numbers. Think I was just getting 7 day average per day figures, so ~ 40odd, whereas you came up with a total I think!

[OmiyaHearts]

1 minute ago, ArcticJambo said:

I read in the SG link posted by Red earlier, the restrictions placed on areas in Tier 4 were much like we experienced in March/April ... non essentials shops closed, otherwise not many other details tbqh. Said schools would remain open, which I agree with you is a problem, certainly for upper years I understand.  Not sure what influence contractors are having in transmission (we don't see the data) but there are a lot from the GG area that travel outwith on a daily/weekly basis, etc.

 

Think I mentioned earlier that perhaps teh authorities need to be a bit more blunt as well, though of course I can't see how that will at all easy.

 

Sturgeon today said that "We can't afford to simply allow the figures to plateau but rather we need them to drop" (slight paraphrasing if not verbatim).  Glasgow's figures aren't dropping unfortunately.  I don't doubt she'll give it more time however, she's set it up that way.  Ohhwell!

Almost all non essential shops are closed although they could close clothes shops i suppose. Unless they close schools, there's not much else to do. 

 

Tbh moving to tier 4 would have virtuslly zero impact on anyone living here. Its already essentially tier 4.

[stevie1874]

3 hours ago, jonesy said:

It was NS who, along with advisors etc, developed this convoluted system. She is now refusing to apply it even when there is strong evidence. FWIW, I'm not saying that Glasgow ought to be 'hit' with the 'harshest' tier (even the language used around this is uncomfortable). But you know that, and are again trying to change the discussion. And, following the logic, surely the worst-affected regions would welcome stricter measures to make life safe again?

 

There is no evidence of respect from her or her party for those who are suffering due to loss of livelihoods and/or loneliness. But she has a wee cry every time she sees folk trying to enjoy their lives.

 

The best evidence of someone losing control is when they refuse to give it up. There's a lad over the Atlantic having similar issues at the moment.

Think your wasting your time, for some people on this thread it’s all about scoring points over the Westminster government. Hopefully this vaccine edges us closer to normality. Another thing imo this thread has thrown up is that Scotland needs some decent political opposition to the people making decisions. 

[Darren]

16 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

 

@Darren Is there any justification for the 350 per week per 100K published anywhere?  I mean why 350 and not 300.

 

 

I don't know about the justification but it is 300+ cases per 100,000 over seven days - and Glasgow is above that.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

[Brighton Jambo]

It would be good if this mass testing in Liverpool could be applied to Glasgow.  

[coconut doug]

16 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

@jonesy But in all seriousness, the West was in the wrong tier to begin with and it continues to be in the wrong tier to this day.  If the SG was serious about driving down the numbers then they needed to get after the worst of it and that  was the beating heart of this vile affliction spewing death to us all.

 

@coconut doug You'd be better looking att he SG's own website for the trends than that graphic for Dummies 101 you posted (not a go at you btw, just it doesn't really show anything useful). 

 

@Darren Is there any justification for the 350 per week per 100K published anywhere?  I mean why 350 and not 300.

 

I'm neither here nor there wrt the system employed tbh, whether it be open everything up or our present tiered restriction-based system, however if the SG is going to go with the one they've implemented then they really should try to make the most of it.  Can you imagine the amout of praise Glasgow would get.  :sweet:

 

I'm happy that the bars show no major changes or any discernible trend. That was my point. I didn't want to quantify anything just show the trend or lack of it. The SG's website shows a breakdown by postcode which for various reasons including the class intervals doesn't give a good impression of what has happened in Glasgow as a whole. There might of course be other Glasgow wide info on the site i am not aware of. 

[OmiyaHearts]

3 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

It would be good if this mass testing in Liverpool could be applied to Glasgow.  

Would love that. It would clearly show schools are the cause and let us get some normality back by going for a drink or dinner.

 

Its parents and their weans who need locked down.

[ArcticJambo]

10 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Almost all non essential shops are closed although they could close clothes shops i suppose. Unless they close schools, there's not much else to do. 

 

Tbh moving to tier 4 would have virtuslly zero impact on anyone living here. Its already essentially tier 4.

Aye, well then perhaps again, they've misjudged their original criteria then, and/or they need to get the batons and public stocks out.

Edited November 9, 2020 by ArcticJambo

[Robbofan99]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

Personally, I don't think that the decision (yet) not to place the Lothians and the West in different tiers is due to political considerations. I reckon it's more due to the desire to have all the Lothians placed in the same tier combined with West Lothian's poorer showing, plus the concern that folk from the west would head east to pubs etc. Tiers are easy to enforce when it's the Western Isles or Moray, far more difficult when areas are closer together.

Therefore begs the question ? why have this system then ?

[Taffin]

14 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

From the link in my post (the SG's tableau). You can also get the data from the Travelling Tabby site. Let me know if you have any difficulties finding the data.

 

I was having difficulty getting that too. I wanted a period from placement of the levels now with a trend line as I could only compare by taking the number on day one of the levels and comparing with today. It could be because I'm on mobile as coconut doug says his graph has the trend line but I couldn't see it. Nor can I see it on the travelling tabby site ☹️

[Darren]

[Brighton Jambo]

4 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Would love that. It would clearly show schools are the cause and let us get some normality back by going for a drink or dinner.

 

Its parents and their weans who need locked down.

How many parents do you think work in hospitality.  You ensure all parents can’t work and the economy is hit even harder including hospitality.  

Edited November 9, 2020 by Brighton Jambo

[ArcticJambo]

2 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

I'm happy that the bars show no major changes or any discernible trend. That was my point. I didn't want to quantify anything just show the trend or lack of it. The SG's website shows a breakdown by postcode which for various reasons including the class intervals doesn't give a good impression of what has happened in Glasgow as a whole. There might of course be other Glasgow wide info on the site i am not aware of. 

Unfortunately the discernoble trend is a continuos high infection rate wit the inevitable effect on vulnerable groups, perhaps even further afield due to transmission across administrative boundaries.  That's my point.  They need it sorted as it doesn't appear to be working for Glasgow in particular.

[coconut doug]

21 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

It’s the biggest load of shite that’s come out of this whole thing. How anyone can pat Nicola on the back for this is beyond me. The debate isn’t that the tier system is working or not working it’s that it could never work in the first place. 

 

Does this apply to all countries that have a differentiated approach or only the ones that Nicola is in charge of?

[OmiyaHearts]

2 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

How many parents do you think work in hospitality.  You ensure all parents can’t work and the economy is hit even harder including hospitality.  

BTW I wasn't being totally serious but looking at Glasgow numbers, schools are the only thing opened that can keep that rate up. 

[redjambo]

12 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

Got it eventually thanks, well roughly (drop down menus) though I couldn't locate your actual numbers. Think I was just getting 7 day average per day figures, so ~ 40odd, whereas you came up with a total I think!

 

Can you let me know exactly which figures I provided which you can't find, AJ.

[ArcticJambo]

2 minutes ago, Darren said:

[Brighton Jambo]

1 minute ago, OmiyaHearts said:

BTW I wasn't being totally serious but looking at Glasgow numbers, schools are the only thing opened that can keep that rate up. 

I agree and think a four week Xmas holiday is worth considering.  Pubs need to open because as others have said they can be controlled and right now people are just visiting each other’s houses with absolutely no regulation in place.  Pubs and restaurants have been pretty much the safest places I have entered.  This strategy is completely counter productive.  

[ArcticJambo]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Can you let me know exactly which figures I provided which you can't find, AJ.

I quoted your post earlier this afternoon, the one with the figures.  Sorry can't quote them directly as gotta go now for a bit.

[theshed]

2 hours ago, AlimOzturk said:

You are just unable to take your yellow SNP blinkers off. No matter what Sturgeon did you will defend it.  
 

As bad as trump supporters if you ask me. 

 

Make Scotland great again will probably their slogan next year 

[coconut doug]

1 minute ago, ArcticJambo said:

Unfortunately the discernoble trend is a continuos high infection rate wit the inevitable effect on vulnerable groups, perhaps even further afield due to transmission across administrative boundaries.  That's my point.  They need it sorted as it doesn't appear to be working for Glasgow in particular.

 

It's not coming down fast enough particularly in the worst affected areas but we have to try our best to manage the situation and it is not an unreasonable stance to offer no change of approach in a slowly declining infection rate. I made the same point myself if it doesn't keep reducing in Glasgow and Lanarkshire there will have to be a harder lockdown. I don't think we are there just yet but very close.

[Jambo 4 Ever]

Vaccine won’t help with this 2nd wave so more important than ever that everyone follows the rules on place 

[SwindonJambo]

Just now, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Vaccine won’t help with this 2nd wave so more important than ever that everyone follows the rules on place 

Spot on. While it's tentatively very good news, far too many people are getting too carried away, the stock market for starters. Feet on the ground and proceed with caution.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

 

I can confidently predict that schools will close down for 2 weeks at the end of December and again in early April.

 

 

Now you have raised your head again, care to answer question on what part of people in hospital being moved to Care homes and infecting residents with Covid 19,or transferring infection to to Care workers you found so funny you used laughing emoji? 

[OmiyaHearts]

4 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

I agree and think a four week Xmas holiday is worth considering.  Pubs need to open because as others have said they can be controlled and right now people are just visiting each other’s houses with absolutely no regulation in place.  Pubs and restaurants have been pretty much the safest places I have entered.  This strategy is completely counter productive.  

Let's hope with the prospect of mass testing and potential vaccine, things will head in the right direction. As long as schools/uni's are ignored, I can't see any other way of things improving. 

[GinRummy]

17 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

Does this apply to all countries that have a differentiated approach or only the ones that Nicola is in charge of?

You can’t carve a tiny wee country into different bits and have the bits on different tiers. That’s why Nicola has so much of the country on the same tier. So why give all the regions their own tier score? 

As an example, I live in Musselburgh which is the most heavily populated town in East Lothian. If infection rates dictated that East Lothian should be tier 3 but Edinburgh tier 2, how do you think that would work in practice. There are similar anomalies all over the country. If parts of Lanarkshire are so tied to Glasgow and parts of Lothian are so tied to Edinburgh why separate them for the purposes of this system?

 

It’s ill thought out gibberish.

 

in answer to your question. I don’t know the make up and travel habits of the other countries or their reliance on the major cities involved so unfortunately I can’t comment. 

Edited November 9, 2020 by GinRummy

[frankblack]

8 minutes ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Vaccine won’t help with this 2nd wave so more important than ever that everyone follows the rules on place 

 

Doesn't seem like anyone in your area is doing it, does it?

[frankblack]

9 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Let's hope with the prospect of mass testing and potential vaccine, things will head in the right direction. As long as schools/uni's are ignored, I can't see any other way of things improving. 

 

Nicola and Jason said that hospitality was going to be the first thing they close when infections rise and they have been blindly doing that in the absence of data to back up their strategy.  I think they are too stubborn to admit they got it wrong.

[Jambo 4 Ever]

6 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Doesn't seem like anyone in your area is doing it, does it?

Across the country people - including some on here - are not following the rules as they should be 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

Nicola and Jason said that hospitality was going to be the first thing they close when infections rise and they have been blindly doing that in the absence of data to back up their strategy.  I think they are too stubborn to admit they got it wrong.

They are in a very strong position. If infection rates rise they can blame compliance levels and just continue closing more business sectors but if infection rates fall they are seen as justified in chucking the hospitality industry down the toilet. 

[graygo]

1 hour ago, Darren said:

 

Closing hospitality has been detrimental to tackling this virus, particularly in Glasgow.

 

I think they were right to close them initially to allow them to put in place measures to make them Covid safe, the ones that did should have been allowed to open back up.

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

I think they were right to close them initially to allow them to put in place measures to make them Covid safe, the ones that did should have been allowed to open back up.

That is one of the most common sense and logical things I’ve read in weeks. 

[graygo]

24 minutes ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Vaccine won’t help with this 2nd wave so more important than ever that everyone follows the rules on place 

 

What rules? They've surely been relaxed now that a vaccine is coming.

[Ray Gin]

21 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Now you have raised your head again, care to answer question on what part of people in hospital being moved to Care homes and infecting residents with Covid 19,or transferring infection to to Care workers you found so funny you used laughing emoji? 

 

I already answered and wasn't laughing at that, so stop trying to twist things to suggest that I was. Pathetic stuff. 

[redjambo]

35 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I was having difficulty getting that too. I wanted a period from placement of the levels now with a trend line as I could only compare by taking the number on day one of the levels and comparing with today. It could be because I'm on mobile as coconut doug says his graph has the trend line but I couldn't see it. Nor can I see it on the travelling tabby site ☹️

 

Sorry, Taffin. I can be a bit thick at times. Do you want the historic NHS Board data or the historic Council area data?

[graygo]

5 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

That is one of the most common sense and logical things I’ve read in weeks. 

 

Then I blew it with my next post. 😁