Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Victorian]

Just now, pablo said:

 

Surely if people's businesses are being destroyed, it's not unreasonable to ask the question on the existence of evidence behind the decisions being made?

 

The original comment from someone was an opinion and cannot be supported with hard facts.  It was a reasonable assumption that most people would recognise.  The person asking for data is at it.  He knows no such data exists.  It's a dishonest way to conduct a debate.

 

Not every opinion can be proved with hard facts.  Hiding behind an absence of facts is not an argument.

[Jeff]

 

[Brighton Jambo]

12 hours ago, lost in leith said:

 

First of all thanks for posting this link and for your regular updates on the data.  

 

For those who haven't seen this document, it sets out the indicators which help to determine which level should be allocated to a local authority.  

 

a) The number of cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days.

b) The percentage of tests that are positive over the past seven days.

c) Forecasts of the number of cases per 100,000 consisting of the weekly number of cases in two weeks’ time.

d) Current and projected future use of local hospital beds, compared with capacity.

e) Current and projected future use of intensive care beds, compared with capacity.

 

Annex A has a table which gives a score for each local authority for each indicator.  Annex A refers to an 'evidence paper'.  I'm pretty sure it is this paper, though it is called a 'modelling paper'. 

 

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/10/coronavirus-covid-19-allocation-of-levels-to-local-authorities/documents/modelling-paper/modelling-paper/govscot%3Adocument/Modelling%2B-%2BPaper%2B-%2BLocal%2Bauthority%2Blevels%2B28%2Boct.pdf

 

Annex A also gives the level allocated to each local authority and Annex B gives a rationale for the decision.

 

Some of the detailed rules for each level are set out in this document, in Annex 1 and Annex 2 (Hospitality). 

 

https://www.gov.scot/publications/covid-19-scotlands-strategic-framework/

 

A few thoughts -

 

Levels -  Ministers have really hard decisions to make and that the data is not as robust as we would like it to be.  The combination of the data doesn't feed into an algorithm.  There are other factors (some are listed in para 19 of the document Redjambo provided a link to) and the SG have been open about the fact that some decisions are borderline.  However, some of the decisions are quite hard to follow.  North and South Lanarkshire score 4 in every category from a-e above.  The scores for Edinburgh are 2-3-0-0-0 but Edinburgh is in the same level as Lanarkshire.  The Borders are 1-1-0-0-0 but they are in Level 2.  Some eg Highland score 0 across the board but are in level 1.  

 

Travel - it is hard to avoid the conclusion that travel from higher risk areas to lower risk areas is one of the SG's main concerns.  My gut feel is that trying to enforce compliance here is similar to enforcing the rules on household gatherings - too hard to do properly.  Unfortunately I agree with those who believe that Edinburgh may well be stuck in a higher level than can be justified by the raw data until the position improves dramatically in the rest of the Central Belt.  

 

Level 0 - this is described as being close to normality.  From a quick read of the last document 'near normality' involves the likes of - 

 

Restricted numbers in stadia;

Groups meeting indoors restricted to 8 from no more than 3 households;

All customers in licensed premises to be seated at tables; and

Numbers at weddings, funerals and places of worship restricted to 50.

 

Vaccine - obviously today's news is excellent. However, we know that a programme to roll out the vaccine will be a huge logistical exercise which could easily run towards the end of 2021.  The current SG view is that level 0 is "the closest we can get to normality, without a vaccine or effective treatment in place".  My worry is that the SG will take the view that the virus is most likely to be spread by the under 50s, who will be at the end of the queue for the vaccine as they are at least risk of serious harm (unless they have an underlying health condition).  Therefore we can't move beyond level 0 until the programme is complete.

 

 

 

Your point about level 0 hits the nail on the head.  Even at level 0 life isn’t anywhere near normal.  I am not one of these social liberty warriors but that does concern me.  Surely level 0 should be life as normal as possible but with increased vigilance and hand washing.  Not restrictions on social gatherings etc.  

[doctor jambo]

2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I see there is to be mass rapid testing of Students to get them home in December, hopefully this time once they have re-established their households we will just leave them there this time?

Listening to the editor of the BMJ this morning trashing the vaccine research from pfizer.

He is a proponent of a switch in public attitude to risk and death, in order to return to normal.

I know many of my colleagues are of the same opinion, as am I.

Dentists are not so accustomed to death as we are, nor are epidemiologists/virologists/ public health clinicians .

Perhaps Bojo/ Nicki should try listening to ACTUAL clinicians

[frankblack]

42 minutes ago, weehammy said:

The anecdotal stuff in here from true believers who know of or have seen hordes of drunks in pubs or in homes is just as laughable as the Trump fans who know of or have seen vanloads of Biden ballots being taken in to counting locations.

 

Spot on.

 

Before Nicola shut the pubs again I would meet friends for a couple of hours for a nice social catch up in strictly covid safe conditions.  I think many people have been wary of staying out too long because of the lack of enforcement of rules in other settings - public transport, shops, etc.

 

People are starting to question the competence of those making the decisions to shut hospitality while scared to provide the breakdown of track-and-trace data to show hospitality relative to other causes.

 

Just popped into co-op at East Craigs, and it was full of pupils from Craigmount.  About 1 in 8 had a mask on in the shop and were showing no awareness of social distancing.

[Malinga the Swinga]

7 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Listening to the editor of the BMJ this morning trashing the vaccine research from pfizer.

He is a proponent of a switch in public attitude to risk and death, in order to return to normal.

I know many of my colleagues are of the same opinion, as am I.

Dentists are not so accustomed to death as we are, nor are epidemiologists/virologists/ public health clinicians .

Perhaps Bojo/ Nicki should try listening to ACTUAL clinicians

Government only listening to the experts who come out with what they want to hear. Any other experts are dismissed and ignored. 

[Ray Gin]

10 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Listening to the editor of the BMJ this morning trashing the vaccine research from pfizer.

He is a proponent of a switch in public attitude to risk and death, in order to return to normal.

I know many of my colleagues are of the same opinion, as am I.

Dentists are not so accustomed to death as we are, nor are epidemiologists/virologists/ public health clinicians .

Perhaps Bojo/ Nicki should try listening to ACTUAL clinicians

 

Oh you're suddenly concerned about people dying now? This is a refreshing shift in attitude. 

[Ray Gin]

57 minutes ago, weehammy said:

The anecdotal stuff in here from true believers who know of or have seen hordes of drunks in pubs or in homes is just as laughable as the Trump fans who know of or have seen vanloads of Biden ballots being taken in to counting locations.

 

It's the truth. And you know it, it just doesn't suit your agenda. You just need to watch the news to see images of drunk people carrying on like there are no restrictions. 

[Taffin]

Sir John Bell suggesting those who get the vaccine should be able to go and do stuff off limits to everyone else.

 

They can do one with that idea. 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Wait. Sack the vaccine and just let folk die so we can get back to normal? 

 

Right. 

[Weakened Offender]

4 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Oh you're suddenly concerned about people dying now? This is a refreshing shift in attitude. 

 

😁

[Taffin]

Just now, Ray Gin said:

 

It's the truth. And you know it, it just doesn't suit your agenda. You just need to watch the news to see images of drunk people carrying on like there are no restrictions. 

 

Who'd have thought the news would report instances of disobedience rather than adherence...colour me shocked.

[GinRummy]

2 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Public transport is essential for some, education has been deemed top priority. Sitting in a pub is not.

 

Cafés have the same problem but at least don't have drunk people to contend with.

 

 

Earning a living is essential for some. Are you happy an entire industry has been thrown down the toilet without the slightest attempt to ensure enforcement in order to keep places open and stop businesses going bust?

[Governor Tarkin]

1 hour ago, Taffin said:

 

We'd taken (prior to lockdown) to going to friends houses for the weekend rather than for a night in the pub at a pub quiz or whatever. Usually we'd have been home about 2300-2330. Instead folk were up drinking and playing games into the wee hours.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Weakened Offender said:

Some were policing the non-regulars and letting the regulars do what they want. 

 

Saw a bit of this too, tbf. 

 

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

Speed cameras. 

 

Got caught out with one of those in the toilet at the Paradox Club Many years ago.

 

2 hours ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

Same in supermarkets. I had a pop in Asda in Chesser when an old wifey was pulled up for not having her face mask over her nose at the checkout as loads of libertarian bellends strutted about the shop not giving one. 

 

Never had you down as a libertarian tbh.

 

[JWL]

12 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Spot on.

 

Before Nicola shut the pubs again I would meet friends for a couple of hours for a nice social catch up in strictly covid safe conditions.  I think many people have been wary of staying out too long because of the lack of enforcement of rules in other settings - public transport, shops, etc.

 

People are starting to question the competence of those making the decisions to shut hospitality while scared to provide the breakdown of track-and-trace data to show hospitality relative to other causes.

 

Just popped into co-op at East Craigs, and it was full of pupils from Craigmount.  About 1 in 8 had a mask on in the shop and were showing no awareness of social distancing.

 

I was in many bars in Edinburgh before they were closed again and all, without exception, enforced strict track and trace and social distancing rules. I was walking along Gorgie Road at lunchtime last Wednesday and there were hordes of pupils heading towards Greggs, Scotmid or wherever for lunch with barely a few masks between them and no social distancing whatsoever. Seen them all gathered outside Greggs and inside Scotmid with the same attitude.

 

Criminally unfair the treatment the hospitality sector has received during the last couple of months.

[graygo]

33 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

If cases are virtually zero in an area then they are virtually zero in that area. I don't get what your issue is? We will see what the random testing is in schools compared with the random testing in the community and we know what the rates were in the area for normal testing, why do you think that would then be difficult to model that across other areas?

 

If cases are high amongst Liverpool students then they are high in that area. (I can play that game too)

 

Why is it ok to use the figures in a highly infected area as an indication of cases in the rest of the country but it's not ok to use somewhere like Cornwall as an indicator?

 

And you've got the cheek to ask me if I know the meaning of the word indication. 

 

 

 

[steve123]

So talk of Edinburgh staying in tier 3 for another week and Glasgow and the West possibly moving to tier 4 .

 

I have been a critic of the handling of this but could understand it if this is what they do, if they however keep the whole of the central belt in the same tier then a few questions to answer.

[graygo]

18 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Sir John Bell suggesting those who get the vaccine should be able to go and do stuff off limits to everyone else.

 

They can do one with that idea. 

 

What sort of things? Flights for example I could understand.

[Dennis Reynolds]

5 minutes ago, steve123 said:

So talk of Edinburgh staying in tier 3 for another week and Glasgow and the West possibly moving to tier 4 .

 

I have been a critic of the handling of this but could understand it if this is what they do, if they however keep the whole of the central belt in the same tier then a few questions to answer.

 

Would make sense based on the figures that have been released. Might tune in for her statement for the first time in a while!

[Ray Gin]

10 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Earning a living is essential for some. Are you happy an entire industry has been thrown down the toilet without the slightest attempt to ensure enforcement in order to keep places open and stop businesses going bust?

 

Of course not, but I'm even less happy that thousands of people have died and are being hospitalised from a highly contagious virus. 

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

What sort of things? Flights for example I could understand.

 

His example was going to the cinema.

 

 

[Ray Gin]

22 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Sir John Bell suggesting those who get the vaccine should be able to go and do stuff off limits to everyone else.

 

They can do one with that idea. 

 

Why? Those who get the vaccine first will deserve a bit of freedom. (NHS workers and shielders are first up) 

[Taffin]

Just now, Ray Gin said:

 

Why? Those who get the vaccine first will deserve a bit of freedom. (NHS workers and shielders are first up) 

 

I don't disagree, but there would be no point keeping everyone else cooped up now that the people they're protecting would now be vaccinated and swanning about at cinemas

 

 

[Victorian]

I don't believe your anecdotal evidence about pubs.  All the pubs I went to were fine.  

[Jambo-Jimbo]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Smashing. Fire all the pent up shielders out and about to socialise with NHS staff who are exposed to a wide variety of pathogens on a daily basis. 

 

 

 

Oh, that's pretty much a normal day for me. 

 

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Terrible idea. Destroy childrens education and leave them, especially in poorer areas, to be stuck with no prospects of continuing to learn. 

 

Don't understand the rush to harm the youth of country. 

 

Government said that they would keep schools open and that is what they should do. 

For a week or 2. Calm doon, FFS. They'll all be off for Christmas soon, or maybe they should just stay at school to make up lost time. No, I didn't think so. 

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, willie wallace said:

Over 65s including me will be there with our vaccine report cheering the boys on.

Probably have special pubs open for us as well.

Hope the young team are allowed to attend the victory parade though.😃👍

I'm neither young or auld.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Hancock saying that NHS staff are now to be tested twice a week.

 

Not before bloody time either.

 

[Francis Albert]

2 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

For a week or 2. Calm doon, FFS. They'll all be off for Christmas soon, or maybe they should just stay at school to make up lost time. No, I didn't think so. 

Good luck with getting the Teachers Unions to agree to losing their Christmas holidays!

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, mutley said:

The cup final in 40 days time?

 Every cup final, because we'll win them all. 

[Weakened Offender]

26 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

Never had you down as a libertarian tbh.

 

 

 

Screen-Shot-2018-04-29-at-07.webp

Edited November 10, 2020 by Weakened Offender

[ri Alban]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

Good luck with getting the Teachers Unions to agree to losing their Christmas holidays!

Do folk no get sarcasm on here? Fs, I wasn't being serious. 

[Victorian]

Vaccination passports for pub entry imo.  Get the council to send a guy round to check they're all following the rule.  

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

You're a one man herd immunity machine, JJ.

 

It'll be all the alcohol which kills all the germs.  

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

It'll be all the alcohol which kills all the germs.  

 

Drinking Meths might kill other things too...

[graygo]

11 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

You're missing the point, if cases are high in Liverpool schools while that area is high in cases anyway then cases in Cornwall schools are still likely to be zero if Cornwall has zero cases.

 

Mass testing as so far shown 0.7% of positive tests, all with no symptoms, I think there can be indications for other areas based on whether schools test above or below that and we look at what the current amount of cases per population are. So for your beloved Cornwall and well as the Highlands and Islands here, it matters not a jot as they are very low on cases anyway, for the rest of Scotland it could provide some interesting data about how many of the 25K isolating pupils and teachers are likely to actually have covid.

 

So we can use your beloved Liverpool as a guide but not anywhere that has lower overall infections? 

You're missing the point - the figures they obtain for schools in Liverpool are relevant to schools in Liverpool.

I'm not even sure what point you are arguing, it's difficult to follow your post's views even ignoring the sly comments.

 

Let's say they mass test pupils in Liverpool and find that 0.7% test positive which is average then we are to assume that 0.7% of the 25,000 isolating in Edinburgh are also positive, that's 175.  So what?  What do you think they might do differently if the percentage is higher or lower? Or is it just that it's "interesting"? They will not close schools in Scotland because of test results in Liverpool.

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Probably puts the nix on long covid, though, so every cloud...

 

I guess its only one step removed from Trump's solution of drinking bleach. 🤔

[Dazo]

2 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Again, by "sticking to the guidelines" does this include keeping a group of friends from different households over 1 metre apart?

 

Sticking to the guidelines isn’t hard to comprehend so doesn’t need questioned. Might not suit everyone but it would allow couples/families some sort of normality at the same it won’t destroy the hospitality industry. 

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 10 November 2020

Summary

• 832 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-80]
• 39 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [+38]
• 102 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-3]
• 1,239 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+13]
• 10,499 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 9.5% of these were positive [-80, +0.4%]

[Malinga the Swinga]

17 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

For a week or 2. Calm doon, FFS. They'll all be off for Christmas soon, or maybe they should just stay at school to make up lost time. No, I didn't think so. 

If they announced 2 week closure of schools, how many weeks would it be before they reopened? 6, 8 or more. Certainty wouldn't be 2. Government already has previous for announcing short closure and then simply extending them.

[redjambo]

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Scotland 15 [-2].

 

Lanarkshire 26 [-7], Greater Glasgow 25 [-6], Ayrshire 24 [+4].

 

Forth Valley 13 [+6], Lothian 13 [+2], Tayside 12 [+5].

 

All others: less than 10.

[Ray Gin]

23 minutes ago, Victorian said:

I don't believe your anecdotal evidence about pubs.  All the pubs I went to were fine.  

 

😂

[Malinga the Swinga]

4 minutes ago, weehammy said:

Nicola: I’m thinking of moving Edinburgh down a tier.

Leitch: No, no, Ray saw some drunks on TV!
Nicola: Phew,that was a narrow squeak! But wasn’t that in Nottingham or somewhere?
Leitch: Ray says he’s been out a lot and seen mobs of potential drunks lurking all over Edinburgh.

Nicola: Great, I wanted to keep Edinburgh the same as Glasgow anyway.

 

Are these official minutes😃

[luckydug]

1 hour ago, weehammy said:

The anecdotal stuff in here from true believers who know of or have seen hordes of drunks in pubs or in homes is just as laughable as the Trump fans who know of or have seen vanloads of Biden ballots being taken in to counting locations.

There's been loads of pictures on TV of people having one last blow out prior to the English lockdown. 

Plenty of images both North and South of the border of people disobeying the restrictions. 

What do you mean by 'true believers' ? 

[Victorian]

Numbers in the west going down,  numbers in Lothian going up...

 

[OmiyaHearts]

Just now, Victorian said:

Numbers in the west going down,  numbers in Lothian going up...

 

GET THOSE EAST COAST PUNTERS INTO TIER 4. Always said you canny trust those Edinburgh people...

[GinRummy]

35 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Of course not, but I'm even less happy that thousands of people have died and are being hospitalised from a highly contagious virus. 

Of course. Where we seem to differ is I believe every effort should be made to keep businesses open and operating safely and that effort wasn’t made. 

[Shanks]

1 hour ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Government only listening to the experts who come out with what they want to hear. Any other experts are dismissed and ignored. 

Like a lot of the idiots on this thread. 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

GET THOSE EAST COAST PUNTERS INTO TIER 4. Always said you canny trust those Edinburgh people...

 

Krankie scared to upset her followers in the east / doesn't matter what she does 'cos all SNP voters are unquestioning zombies.

[Malinga the Swinga]

Just now, Shanks said:

Like a lot of the idiots on this thread. 

Idiiots on this thread don't make decisions like sending non tested hospital patients into care homes though.