Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Don Dan]

Regarding personal PPE at this point take every precaution where you can. As we know or should know nothing definite is known about preventing the spread of this virus other that stay home. 
Regarding PPE gloves. If you have them, wear them. If you can especially if the are in short supply wash them in either alcohol gel or hot soapy water. Hang them up to dry for a couple of days. 
Note the above is only MY personal tip. It’s not in any way qualified.
These are extremely difficult and unknown circumstances which the world is now trying to get a handle on. 
Stay safe. 
 

[dobmisterdobster]

6 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Surely statistically the more people tested, the more accurately death ratios and how much the virus has spread is understood.  I thought statistically speaking the bigger the sample the more accurate the result?

Only up to a certain point then you start seeing diminishing returns.

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, kila said:

 

But if the antibody tests become a reality, having mass data on who has recovered might be useful to working out chances of reinfection and whether some parts of society can open up again if those people can't be infected or carry it virally.

 

It's the only positive left for me to cling on to at the moment, dinnae take it away!

 

 

Yes.   The overall benefit of the antibody test is very dependent on what is eventually discovered regarding how resilient immunity is.     If we don't have mass testing then we could be guessing for many months about who has it,  who had it,  who might get it again.

 

No testing = asymptomatic cases never being picked up.   Suspected cases thinking they're immune then getting it, etc.

[indianajones]

16 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

We currently test enough people to provide a representative sample.

More testing will NOT provide more accurate results. That's not how it works.

 

The role of testing is so misunderstood.

 

9 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Surely statistically the more people tested, the more accurately death ratios and how much the virus has spread is understood.  I thought statistically speaking the bigger the sample the more accurate the result?

 

The more tests you do the more accurate the results would be as GR states. Isnt that pretty basic statistical analysis? 

[GinRummy]

12 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Only up to a certain point then you start seeing diminishing returns.

Aye but surely out of a country of 60 million people with regional diversity in everything from age to ethnicity and a complete lack of evidence on asymptomatic infection rates and object to person infection rates the data so far is nowhere near that point. That’s not to mention risk factors. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by GinRummy

[Pasquale for King]

45 minutes ago, Jambof3tornado said:

We wear the masks to reduce the risk of infection. It would be great if they 100% stopped us getting infected!!

 

Gloves being wasted on the other hand is just silly. People wearing gloves but still touching supermarket trolleys then their faces. About 6 times I educated people in tesco this morning.

 

 

I was at Sainsbury’s yesterday and didn’t see any sign of sanitising the trollies.

[The Mighty Thor]

Surely it depends on why you're testing. Is it for statistical analysis or to identify carriers and therefore trying to break the chain of infections?

 

Frontline NHS staff, emergency services staff should be routinely tested as a matter of course. 

 

[Pasquale for King]

38 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

We currently test enough people to provide a representative sample.

More testing will NOT provide more accurate results. That's not how it works.

 

The role of testing is so misunderstood.

They were saying that one in four NHS staff are self isolating, testing them would help them get back to work when they are needed most. 
You could say the same for other essential workers too. 
I have two family members self isolating just now with mild symptoms, one works in the NHS but haven’t been tested. It will be interesting to see how she gets on when she hopefully gets to the other side.

[Mikey1874]

Not sure how many factories and construction sites are still working. 

 

But just heard from 'in-laws'. 

 

70 year old joiner has been told by his accountant to keep working as he is in a category of self-employed not entitled to Government payment (something to do with dividends I think).  And that that is 'official Government advice'. 

[Francis Albert]

26 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

They were saying that one in four NHS staff are self isolating, testing them would help them get back to work when they are needed most. 
You could say the same for other essential workers too. 
I have two family members self isolating just now with mild symptoms, one works in the NHS but haven’t been tested. It will be interesting to see how she gets on when she hopefully gets to the other side.

Do they go back to work because they test positive and therefore are not a danger (to themselves or others) after a quarantine period? Or do they go back if they test negative and therefore might be positive the next day or day after? Do they have to be tested every day, and even then possibly too late to prevent passing it on to colleagues and others?Genuine questions. Of course more and well targeted testing would be a help but just how much of one?

Edited April 2, 2020 by Francis Albert

[Mikey1874]

3 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Do they go back to work because they test positive and therefore are not a danger after a quarantine period? Or do they go back if they test negative and therefore might be positive the next day or day after? Do they have to be tested every day, and even then possibly too late to prevent passing it on to colleagues and others? Genuine questions. Of course more and well targeted testing would be a help but just how much of one?

 

It seems testing is just a word now.

 

Looks like in practice there is no testing for health workers. A few only but they just don't have the tests available. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

Just caught up on a few pages of this from last night.  Jesus...theres a lot of tension , anger , arguments and stress im feeling about it all.  Like one poster said can I remind people that most people survive it .. It has a very low mortality rate..This keeps me sane..well almost

[Shanks]

5 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Just caught up on a few pages of this from last night.  Jesus...theres a lot of tension , anger , arguments and stress im feeling about it all.  Like one poster said can I remind people that most people survive it .. It has a very low mortality rate..This keeps me sane..well almost

 

Exactly, BBC have a good article about death rates against people that are expected to die anyway -

 

 BBC News - Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

 

 

 

 

Worth a read, especially if you are understandably feeling overwhelmed by it all.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Longshanks

[Dawnrazor]

7 minutes ago, Longshanks said:

 

Exactly, BBC have a good article about death rates against people that are expected to die anyway -

 

 BBC News - Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

 

 

 

 

Worth a read, especially if you are understandably feeling overwhelmed by it all.

Are we back to being "Male or Female" now?

Wgat about the other 55 genders?

[The Roller]

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, Longshanks said:

 

Exactly, BBC have a good article about death rates against people that are expected to die anyway -

 

 BBC News - Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

 

 

 

 

Worth a read, especially if you are understandably feeling overwhelmed by it all.

Very interesting article.  Cheers.    

[Shanks]

3 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Very interesting article.  Cheers.    

 

No worries, I had been getting myself into a bit of a state over it all mentally.  Reading things like that gives the situation a bit of perspective for me anyway. 

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, The Roller said:

 

Useful chart but brings no encouragement.    

[Taffin]

59 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

They were saying that one in four NHS staff are self isolating, testing them would help them get back to work when they are needed most. 
You could say the same for other essential workers too. 
I have two family members self isolating just now with mild symptoms, one works in the NHS but haven’t been tested. It will be interesting to see how she gets on when she hopefully gets to the other side.

 

Is the above in relation to antibody testing?

 

Edit: Francis Albert has already asked what was going through my mind.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Taffin

[OBE]

3 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Are we back to being "Male or Female" now?

Wgat about the other 55 genders?

 

If there were two miracle vaccines, each aligned to a penis or vagina, two queues would suffice.

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

 

If there were two miracle vaccines, each aligned to a penis or vagina, two queues would suffice.

I csn hear the protests already 😟

[OBE]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

I csn hear the protests already 😟

 

Just a wee bit of fun...

[frankblack]

5 minutes ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

 

If there were two miracle vaccines, each aligned to a penis or vagina, two queues would suffice.

 

There are two distinct terms - gender and sex.  Sex is the biological term for male or female, and gender is male, female and everything else inbetween.

 

Working in computers our systems replaced a "gender" input with "sex" for this specific reason.

Edited April 2, 2020 by frankblack

[Tazio]

Just back from my daily exercise and popped into the shop on the way back. People being a lot better at keeping space and following guidelines. 
apart from the half dozen or so people I saw in masks. Those ****ers seem to think they’re bulletproof now and were merrily strolling around getting into people’s space etc. 

[Tommy Brown]

13 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Useful chart but brings no encouragement.    

It shows the opposite of encouragement.

It shows we fannyed about with lockdown and should have done it aweek to 10 days earlier. Pants caught well down.

 

Building Nightingale and plans for at least 3 others tells you, we are going to be worse than Italy.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Still huge death totals in Italy, 760 in the last 24 hrs, overall total now nearly 14,000 (13,915)

And 4,500 new infections.

[Pasquale for King]

49 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Do they go back to work because they test positive and therefore are not a danger (to themselves or others) after a quarantine period? Or do they go back if they test negative and therefore might be positive the next day or day after? Do they have to be tested every day, and even then possibly too late to prevent passing it on to colleagues and others?Genuine questions. Of course more and well targeted testing would be a help but just how much of one?

They are all good questions and I don’t have the answers, it seems that testing for whatever reason has helped other countries contain it. The school of thought Is that you can’t get it twice but they don’t  know for certain.

[Jambof3tornado]

1 hour ago, Pasquale for King said:

I was at Sainsbury’s yesterday and didn’t see any sign of sanitising the trollies.

My local tesco had a guy wiping down trolley handles with disinfectant as he was giving them out.

 

Arrows on the floors directing flow of customers worked well except for the one old dear who kept walking by me in the wrong direction!!!

[OBE]

9 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

There are two distinct terms - gender and sex.  Sex is the biological term for male or female, and gender is male, female and everything else inbetween.

 

Working in computers our systems replaced a "gender" input with "sex" for this specific reason.

 

Every little helps, well done.

[Pasquale for King]

15 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Is the above in relation to antibody testing?

 

Edit: Francis Albert has already asked what was going through my mind.

I believe so, to test to see if you currently have it not if you’ve had it. Every day is a school day.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Tommy Brown said:

It shows the opposite of encouragement.

It shows we fannyed about with lockdown and should have done it aweek to 10 days earlier. Pants caught well down.

 

Building Nightingale and plans for at least 3 others tells you, we are going to be worse than Italy.

 

I suspect so.   The only other difference I can envisage to diverge from Italy would be for our epidemic to be a steeper growth of shorter duration.    Less of a flattened peak.    That feasibly could be better as long as demand undershoots resources (the theory at the heart of delay phase).    If we do follow the same shape as Italy then we'll end up with a larger overall death toll.

[Pasquale for King]

1 minute ago, Jambof3tornado said:

My local tesco had a guy wiping down trolley handles with disinfectant as he was giving them out.

 

Arrows on the floors directing flow of customers worked well except for the one old dear who kept walking by me in the wrong direction!!!

That’s good, not what was happening at Sainsbury’s. It would help if we all knew what we wanted and just got that, folk on their phones and others hanging around not helping the general flow. Plenty tills and self service though.

[Jambof3tornado]

6 minutes ago, Tommy Brown said:

It shows the opposite of encouragement.

It shows we fannyed about with lockdown and should have done it aweek to 10 days earlier. Pants caught well down.

 

Building Nightingale and plans for at least 3 others tells you, we are going to be worse than Italy.

Nightingale is clinically a good idea allowing less staff to supervise more patients in ventilators. This cannot be done in the majority of ICUs because of their design.

 

The london underground is the single biggest reason London will take a huge hit in the next 6 to 10 days.

 

 

[Jambof3tornado]

Just now, Pasquale for King said:

That’s good, not what was happening at Sainsbury’s. It would help if we all knew what we wanted and just got that, folk on their phones and others hanging around not helping the general flow. Plenty tills and self service though.

The biggest issue was people unsure of the overtaking rules in the aisles!!

 

Only had to tell 2 people to back off. Pointed out its for their own good given I've just finished 3 x12 hour shifts on the ambulance!!

 

 

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, Jambof3tornado said:

The biggest issue was people unsure of the overtaking rules in the aisles!!

 

Only had to tell 2 people to back off. Pointed out its for their own good given I've just finished 3 x12 hour shifts on the ambulance!!

 

 

Yeah that would work 😃👍🏽

[Victorian]

Sounds like they're going to do a community sample antibody test to extrapolate out an infection landscape.   

[Angel eyes]

Eddie Large has passed away and it’s this hellish virus but had been ill

[Cade]

Another day, another mention of the mythical "25,000 tests a day" and still with no tests ready to go and hardly any tests actually being done.

If they keep saying "25,000 tests a day", does that make it real?

 

 

[BlackJAC?]

UK Government:

[Fultons Right Leg]

1 hour ago, The Roller said:

Feck me. Its like looking into a grim, inevitable future.

[vegas-voss]

100k test a day they can't even hit the original figure.

[Cade]

"We probably have one of the strongest understandings of the supply chain of anywhere in the world because of the preparations we did for a no-deal Brexit"

 

Explain the PPE, medicine and oxygen shortages then ya dick.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

17 minutes ago, Cade said:

Another day, another mention of the mythical "25,000 tests a day" and still with no tests ready to go and hardly any tests actually being done.

If they keep saying "25,000 tests a day", does that make it real?

 

 

 

Promising 100,000 tests a day by end April must have the supplies coming.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Mikey1874

[hughesie27]

1 hour ago, The Roller said:

Does that not suggest we should fare better than Italy? (Few daily and total deaths at lockdown than them)

[Mikey1874]

5 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

100k test a day they can't even hit the original figure.

 

Saying the 100,000 a day will include the antibody test. Probably the vast majority. 

[vegas-voss]

17 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Promising 100,000 tests a day by end April must have the supplies coming.

They just say a number.Will end up them saying a million when they get more grief about it in a week or so

[Francis Albert]

50 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Sounds like they're going to do a community sample antibody test to extrapolate out an infection landscape.   

Sorry but what does that mean? An infection landscape?

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Francis Albert said:

Sorry but what does that mean? An infection landscape?

 

It doesn't take an awful lot of imagination but I'll play your game for now.

 

A landscape of estimated infection rates from around the country.   Split into regions.    To determine percentages of populations who have been infected.

 

 

[highlandjambo3]

3 hours ago, Jambof3tornado said:

We wear the masks to reduce the risk of infection. It would be great if they 100% stopped us getting infected!!

 

Gloves being wasted on the other hand is just silly. People wearing gloves but still touching supermarket trolleys then their faces. About 6 times I educated people in tesco this morning.

 

 

This...... I used to run a small outdoor catering business and often seen other caterers with no clue about using gloves.  People automatically assume that a caterer wearing gloves must be super clean.....bollocks, I’d often see them touching surfaces then food, back to cupboard door handles, doors etc......as soon as gloves come in contact with a germ, the glove will carry that germ in the same way as you would do with no gloves, the glove will then go on to contaminate anything else it touches.  There is no substitute for clean hands and knowing when & how to wash hands properly.

[Spellczech]

1 hour ago, Jambof3tornado said:

Nightingale is clinically a good idea allowing less staff to supervise more patients in ventilators. This cannot be done in the majority of ICUs because of their design.

 

The london underground is the single biggest reason London will take a huge hit in the next 6 to 10 days.

 

 

ICU is generally not about low staff to patient ratios - that's why it is called Intensive Care TBH

 

I just watched a BBC News team visit to Ninewells in Dundee. My nurse wife was sitting beside me going - Why are they not wearing PPE? Why is she not fastening the gown at the back? etc etc - Was strangely amusing and worrying at the same time!