Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Jamhammer]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

And who polices the police?

Coastguard?

[Adam_the_legend]

3 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

I have no idea.  🤷‍♂️

Fair enough, at least you’re honest 

[Don Dan]

https://chng.it/7CMzPjwVrW

 

Liar Boris caught lying again.

[Taffin]

2 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

We're telling people not to meet in groups of more than 3 households and I believe workplaces and shops are being told to put screens and social distancing measures back up, return to table service etc.

 

They're not telling anyone that, they're asking. It's very different. Maybe if they'd done that from the first time around it would have worked but that ship has sailed unfortunately imo.

 

Good about the other measure I guess, a lot of places here still have the screens up.

 

Doesn't sound hugely different though to down here imo. 

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

They're not telling anyone that, they're asking. It's very different. Maybe if they'd done that from the first time around it would have worked but that ship has sailed unfortunately imo.

 

Good about the other measure I guess, a lot of places here still have the screens up.

 

Doesn't sound hugely different though to down here imo. 

 

They are telling/strongly encouraging, it's just not enforceable by law without have a vote through Scottish parliament. (at least I think that's the case)

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59684759

"The advice on limiting social gatherings is not enforceable in law, but Ms Sturgeon has said people should "not think of it as optional".

[Taffin]

This is where it all just becomes so conflicting and jarring. Panic, panic, panic is the message, but there's no action and you wonder why and then you read something like this:

 

"Investigators have been looking at ones linked to Delta and more recently Omicron and say the top five symptoms are:

 

runny nose

headache

fatigue (either mild or severe)

sneezing

sore throat"

 

Then you are again left somewhat shrugging your shoulders.

[Nucky Thompson]

4 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

https://chng.it/7CMzPjwVrW

 

Liar Boris caught lying again.

I would rather that they done away with testing for travel altogether than burden the tax payer with extra cost

[Adam_the_legend]

Good news, positivity rate is down on yesterday!!

 

[Taffin]

5 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

They are telling/strongly encouraging, it's just not enforceable by law without have a vote through Scottish parliament. (at least I think that's the case)

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59684759

"The advice on limiting social gatherings is not enforceable in law, but Ms Sturgeon has said people should "not think of it as optional".

 

Unfortunately it's entirely optional unless she enforces it and that's the message it sends. It's a mirror image of Boris's mantra:

 

'I hope something happens but I'm going to take no action to make it happen and instead hope for the best'

 

For all the Nats vs Unionists nonsense on here they're very much cut from the same cloth imo. Idealistic dreamers with no leadership skills or power to actually deliver on their idealism.

 

I'm all for positivity and wishing things into existence but when it comes to Brexit and Covid or Independence and Covid, neither Boris or Sturgeon have managed to repeat anything enough than it's manifested itself into existence

Edited December 16, 2021 by Taffin

[Nucky Thompson]

88k positive cases in the UK today but 1.63m tests were done.

Deaths keep dropping, down 6% on last week.

Hospital admissions are up a little, 8.6% on last week, but people staying in hospital and ICU are down slightly 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Nucky Thompson

[Ray Gin]

2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Unfortunately it's entirely optional unless she enforces it and that's the message it sends. It's a mirror image of Boris's mantra:

 

'I hope something happens but I'm going to take no action to make it happen and instead hope for the best'

 

For all the Nats vs Unionists nonsense on here they're very much cut from the same cloth imo. Idealistic dreamers with no leadership skills or power to actually deliver on their idealism.

 

I'm not sure how this has come around to be a Nats vs Unionists thing, but it seems a good place to abandon the discussion.

[escobri]

Any JKB covid experts know if there has been a change to the number of cycles for the PCR tests?

[Footballfirst]

30 minutes ago, Taffin said:

The actual actions and hospital stats do not align with the narrative arc.

Just looking at the last wave that Scotland experienced in August/September, the acceleration in case numbers wasn't as steep as now (went up four fold over a month), but hospitalisations still tripled over three weeks (from approx 350 to 1,050).

 

Admissions and bed occupancy are still drifting down in Scotland but admissions are starting to climb elsewhere (UK up 8.6% on the previous week).  I suspect that Scotland will see an uptick within the next few days

[NANOJAMBO]

28 minutes ago, PapaShango said:

I don't need a link. If they worked then there wouldn't be any cases (or very few). 

Of course, it all makes sense now. 

[NANOJAMBO]

5 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

I'm not sure how this has come around to be a Nats vs Unionists thing, but it seems a good place to abandon the discussion.

JKB equivalent of Godwins Law. 

[Taffin]

Just now, Footballfirst said:

Just looking at the last wave that Scotland experienced in August/September, the acceleration in case numbers wasn't as steep as now (went up four fold over a month), but hospitalisations still tripled over three weeks (from approx 350 to 1,050).

 

Admissions and bed occupancy are still drifting down in Scotland but admissions are starting to climb elsewhere (UK up 8.6% on the previous week).  I suspect that Scotland will see an uptick within the next few days

 

I've no doubt it will rise, but even at the highest level it accounted for c.30% of UK hospital beds.

 

I'm not trying to downplay it, just trying to theories a solutionfrom a different angle...as in is the best way to create capacity could be to actually go after something else where there is:

 

- more scope to succeed in solving it outside of hospital 

- a larger pool of hospitalised people to reduce creating a larger net gain 

 

 

I've also no doubt whatsoever that they considered this and tried or decided not to. Just thinking out loud really 

 

 

 

[Victorian]

Oh well..

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10316615/amp/Stepson-UKs-Omicron-victim-unvaccinated-conspiracy-theorist.html

[hmfc_steve]

33 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

So what’s our endgame? Covid will be with us for decades if not longer and will continue to mutate. Are we really saying restrictions or worse (lockdowns) should be brought in every time there is a new variant? I’m genuinely curious. We have put covid on a pedestal, covid deaths are more worthy of discussion than any other illness, our politicians our on the tv most days/weeks talking about the sad deaths of covid. What about the sad deaths of cancer, or strokes, or heart attacks, or suicides???

Perfectly valid points that require critical answers

[Footballfirst]

22 minutes ago, Taffin said:

I've no doubt it will rise, but even at the highest level it accounted for c.30% of UK hospital beds.

 

I'm not trying to downplay it, just trying to theories a solutionfrom a different angle...as in is the best way to create capacity could be to actually go after something else where there is:

 

- more scope to succeed in solving it outside of hospital 

- a larger pool of hospitalised people to reduce creating a larger net gain 

 

I've also no doubt whatsoever that they considered this and tried or decided not to. Just thinking out loud really 

I think that it is great idea to get a group of people together to try and solution alterative approaches for creating capacity or managing the problem but, like you, I'd be surprised if such think tanks have not looked at this previously. 

 

Some of the ideas actioned during the first wave of the pandemic in March/April 2020 had disastrous consequences, as happened in care homes.  So all the unintended consequences need to be considered.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Footballfirst

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Costanza said:

There's a loooong thread on it here:  https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1414294003479089154?s=20

 

The way I look at it is that the inconvenience of a mask isn't that great and if it even makes just a small difference then as an overall impact across all those infected, that still adds up to a pretty large benefit.

It is certainly a long thread of tweets. Of which the conclusion seems to be we don't 

know but wear masks just in case. A principle that can surely be widely extended to stop or make everyone doing almost anything

 

[manaliveits105]

19 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Oh well..

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10316615/amp/Stepson-UKs-Omicron-victim-unvaccinated-conspiracy-theorist.html

feck staying in then may as well go out 

[Dennis Denuto]

55 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

So what’s our endgame? Covid will be with us for decades if not longer and will continue to mutate. Are we really saying restrictions or worse (lockdowns) should be brought in every time there is a new variant? I’m genuinely curious. We have put covid on a pedestal, covid deaths are more worthy of discussion than any other illness, our politicians our on the tv most days/weeks talking about the sad deaths of covid. What about the sad deaths of cancer, or strokes, or heart attacks, or suicides???

That may be the case for politicians but is not the case for actual health care professionals and workers.   

[Francis Albert]

59 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

No. Those percentages come from positive PCR tests that show the "S gene dropout"

How many people reading this have a clue what the  "S gene dropout " means?

[Dennis Denuto]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

How many people reading this have a clue what the  "S gene dropout " means?

It means probable omicron, rather than confirmed omicron or delta.

[Francis Albert]

7 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

That may be the case for politicians but is not the case for actual health care professionals and workers.   

You make a wild generalisation about health care professionals. 

[Des Lynam]

32 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Oh well..

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10316615/amp/Stepson-UKs-Omicron-victim-unvaccinated-conspiracy-theorist.html

That has the whiff of utter shite. 

[Francis Albert]

4 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

It means probable omicron, rather than confirmed omicron or delta.

That doesn't greatly improve my understanding TBH. Any quantification of "probably" Or split between the two alternatives?

 

[Footballfirst]

12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

How many people reading this have a clue what the  "S gene dropout " means?

This is how the Scottish Government describes it.

 

Like the Alpha variant, which once was dominant in the UK, Omicron has a mutation that leads to S gene target failure in a widely-used PCR testing platform available at UK Pillar 2 Lighthouse Laboratories.

S-gene target failure (combined with positive detection of the other two target genes (ORF1AB and N)) has therefore been identified as a reasonable proxy for Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) in the UK.

 

Edit: In layman's terms, some lab PCR test results have an indicator called "S gene dropout" which is consistent with Omicron cases, but not Delta.  The percentage of suspected Omicron cases is therefore based on the proportion of PCR tests that have this indicator.

 

Confirmed Omicron cases only come from genomic sequencing.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by Footballfirst

[Victorian]

The endgame question is very easy.  Finally reaching the endemic era with secure mitigations in place.  The scientists talk about a pandemic phase and an endemic phase.  We're in the pandemic phase and hopefully on the boundary of the endemic.  More hopefully seeing what the endemic phase looks like.

 

Mitigations against risk :

 

New and vastly improved protocols and strategies regarding how to handle a resurgence.

 

Worldwide cooperation regarding vaccine design,  production,  distribution,  security of access.

 

New vaccine design to produce polyvalent and/or universal vaccines.  Design of vaccines of long term protection.  Design of oral pills,  inhaler form and any others forms.

 

Range of therapeutics identified and systems readied to provide rapid production and distribution.

 

Investment in critical care infrastructure.  Ventilators and other oxygen delivery devices.  Rapid procurement,  retained premises to accomodate field hospitals to separate epidemic virus care and routine care.  Investment in fundamentally greater numbers of health professionals.  Retain additional workforce on a reservist basis.

 

In short,  manage until it settles down and get the finger out their holes.

[escobri]

2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

This is how the Scottish Government describes it.

 

Like the Alpha variant, which once was dominant in the UK, Omicron has a mutation that leads to S gene target failure in a widely-used PCR testing platform available at UK Pillar 2 Lighthouse Laboratories.

S-gene target failure (combined with positive detection of the other two target genes (ORF1AB and N)) has therefore been identified as a reasonable proxy for Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) in the UK.

So a once negative result is now positive?

[Victorian]

9 minutes ago, Des Lynam said:

That has the whiff of utter shite. 

 

Could be.

[escobri]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

The endgame question is very easy.  Finally reaching the endemic era with secure mitigations in place.  The scientists talk about a pandemic phase and an endemic phase.  We're in the pandemic phase and hopefully on the boundary of the endemic.  More hopefully seeing what the endemic phase looks like.

 

Mitigations against risk :

 

New and vastly improved protocols and strategies regarding how to handle a resurgence.

 

Worldwide cooperation regarding vaccine design,  production,  distribution,  security of access.

 

New vaccine design to produce polyvalent and/or universal vaccines.  Design of vaccines of long term protection.  Design of oral pills,  inhaler form and any others forms.

 

Range of therapeutics identified and systems readied to provide rapid production and distribution.

 

Investment in critical care infrastructure.  Ventilators and other oxygen delivery devices.  Rapid procurement,  retained premises to accomodate field hospitals to separate epidemic virus care and routine care.  Investment in fundamentally greater numbers of health professionals.  Retain additional workforce on a reservist basis.

 

In short,  manage until it settles down and get the finger out their holes.

Sounds very profitable 🤑🤑

[redjambo]

14 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

How many people reading this have a clue what the  "S gene dropout " means?

 

I included a couple of links just a few hours ago to articles that should help you with your understanding of the term.

 

 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, escobri said:

So a once negative result is now positive?

 

No.

[Francis Albert]

2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

This is how the Scottish Government describes it.

 

Like the Alpha variant, which once was dominant in the UK, Omicron has a mutation that leads to S gene target failure in a widely-used PCR testing platform available at UK Pillar 2 Lighthouse Laboratories.

S-gene target failure (combined with positive detection of the other two target genes (ORF1AB and N)) has therefore been identified as a reasonable proxy for Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) in the UK.

A masterpiece of government communication.

[escobri]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

No.

I have seen this claimed elsewhere but not looked into it to comment, that'll suffice 🤣

[Irufushi]

If everyone stopped getting tested, doing the track and trace we’d be breezing through this. 
 

stop testing 👍

[Footballfirst]

7 minutes ago, escobri said:

So a once negative result is now positive?

No.  Only positive tests have this indicator.

 

e.g.  A lab carries out 1,000 PCR tests, 100 are positive, of those 100,  45 show the indicator associated with Omicron.

 

45% of positive cases are deemed as being probably due to Omicron.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Footballfirst

[Maroon Sailor]

Amy MacDonald gig cancelled tomorrow night (17th Dec)

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Maroon Sailor said:

Amy MacDonald gig cancelled tomorrow night (17th Dec)

 

You see. Covid isn't all gloom and doom.

[Francis Albert]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

The endgame question is very easy.  Finally reaching the endemic era with secure mitigations in place.  The scientists talk about a pandemic phase and an endemic phase.  We're in the pandemic phase and hopefully on the boundary of the endemic.  More hopefully seeing what the endemic phase looks like.

 

Mitigations against risk :

 

New and vastly improved protocols and strategies regarding how to handle a resurgence.

 

Worldwide cooperation regarding vaccine design,  production,  distribution,  security of access.

 

New vaccine design to produce polyvalent and/or universal vaccines.  Design of vaccines of long term protection.  Design of oral pills,  inhaler form and any others forms.

 

Range of therapeutics identified and systems readied to provide rapid production and distribution.

 

Investment in critical care infrastructure.  Ventilators and other oxygen delivery devices.  Rapid procurement,  retained premises to accomodate field hospitals to separate epidemic virus care and routine care.  Investment in fundamentally greater numbers of health professionals.  Retain additional workforce on a reservist basis.

 

In short,  manage until it settles down and get the finger out their holes.

Has anyone done an  analysis of the cost benefit trade off between high  tech medical preparation for once in a generation or fewer pandemics and prevention of diseases that kill many millions every year?

[Dennis Denuto]

6 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

A masterpiece of government communication.

It is not difficult to understand, unless you are trying not to understand it.

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Irufushi said:

If everyone stopped getting tested, doing the track and trace we’d be breezing through this. 
 

stop testing 👍

 

Track and trace is already redundant.  A chocolate fireguard.  Testing should become temporarily redundant because the demand will be too great for supply to meet.  Isolation may become redundant to maintain civil contingency security.

[Nucky Thompson]

33 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

feck staying in then may as well go out 

Exactly. If a recluse who only goes to his bins catches it, we all might as well get on with going out

[Fitzroy Pointon]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

You see. Covid isn't all gloom and doom.

 

[Francis Albert]

1 minute ago, Dennis Denuto said:

It is not difficult to understand, unless you are trying not to understand it.

You are kidding? 

 

[Mikey1874]

22 minutes ago, Des Lynam said:

That has the whiff of utter shite. 

 

Its mostly the unvaccinated who are getting seriously ill and  dying so it has the whiff of truth. 

[Dennis Denuto]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

You are kidding? 

 

Nope.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Francis Albert said:

Has anyone done an  analysis of the cost benefit trade off between high  tech medical preparation for once in a generation or fewer pandemics and prevention of diseases that kill many millions every year?

 

Probably there has been tbh.  

 

It's not that relevant.  A resurgence might be worse.  A different pandemic might be worse.  I've yet to see any rules that state there must always be 100 years or a generation between pandemics.  The cost of this pandemic has been enormous.  Successive generations will bear the costs.  It only makes sense to invest to futureproof.

[Dennis Denuto]

4 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Has anyone done an  analysis of the cost benefit trade off between high  tech medical preparation for once in a generation or fewer pandemics and prevention of diseases that kill many millions every year?

Type that into google, loads of articles and reports will appear, not sure what exactly you are looking for but if it has been published it's not difficult to find the answers